Just Doing Some Math

[Mrs. Peavey]

Nevada is going to Bush, which now puts him at 274 Electoral College votes. It looks like New Mexico is also going to Bush, which would put him at 279 electoral votes. Iowa also looks like a possible win for Bush, which would put him at 286.

Looking at Wisconsin........right now 96% of the vote is in and Bush and Kerry are only 14,530 votes apart, with Kerry leading. It's likely that Kerry will win Wisconsin, but by a very very narrow margin, putting him at 252 Electoral College votes.

So Ohio is key........and it doesn't look like Kerry has a chance to win Ohio even when the provisional votes are counted.

At this point, the whole picture could change if the finally tally in Wisconsin puts Bush ahead by a very slim margin, giving Bush Wisconsin. It wouldn't matter if Kerry won Ohio, because without Wisconsin he'd only have 262 electoral votes.

 

[Ought Six]

You add wisely, Grasshopper.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

don't forget the electorates sometimes make their own choices

QUESTION NINE - ANSWER DETAILS
2. A defecting Elector has never decided a Presidential election.
Defecting Electors have never been prosecuted and/or fined for failing to vote according to the state popular vote (which is why there is some uncertainty as to how legally binding Elector laws and pledges are). Three Electors defected in the last seven elections in the Twentieth Century: in 1972, a Republican Elector voted for Libertarian John Hospers instead of Richard Nixon, in 1976, a Republican Elector voted for Ronald Reagan instead of Gerald Ford, and in 1988, a Democratic Elector voted for Lloyd Bentsen instead of Michael Dukakis. According to the National Archives, the "Supreme Court has held that the Constitution does not require that electors be completely free to act as they choose." But, the Court "has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution."