ECON In U.S. soon? U.K. cities pressuring remote workers to come back so others jobs survive

[MinnesotaSmith]

UK pressures workers to return to the office as cities become ‘ghost towns’

LONDON — The British government is encouraging workers to return to their offices amid concerns that the shift to working from home during the coronavirus pandemic is hurting coffee bars, restauran…

nypost.com

UK pressures workers to return to the office as cities become ‘ghost towns’
By Associated Press
August 28, 2020




One of the busiest train stations in Britain, is still much quieter than normal as most commuters are working from home and not commuting into central London offices due to the coronavirus outbreak, in London.

"LONDON — The British government is encouraging workers to return to their offices amid concerns that the shift to working from home during the coronavirus pandemic is hurting coffee bars, restaurants and other businesses, leaving city centers virtual “ghost towns.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government plans to roll out a media campaign next week that will encourage employers to show staff members what they have done to protect them from COVID-19 and make it safe to return to traditional workplaces.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said Friday this was the right time for many people to return to their offices because their children will be going back to school next week. He also said prolonged isolation from friends and colleagues is taking a toll on workers, particularly young people.

“For many people’s mental health, it is important to return to a safe workplace. So that’s why workplaces are being made COVID secure over the summer, and for a lot of people it will be the right time to return,″ Shapps told the BBC. “Others, I accept, will carry on in a much more flexible way than they did in the past.”

The Confederation of British Industry has warned that office closures are taking a wide toll on the economy as traffic plunges at shops that rely on walk-in business. That impact was demonstrated Thursday when sandwich shop chain Pret a Manger announced plans to cut about 2,800 jobs around Britain after sales fell 60%.

The British government should expand coronavirus testing and highlight efforts to reduce virus transmission on trains and buses to encourage people to return to their offices, the CBI said.

It also claimed that bringing workers back into the office is also a matter of fairness, because many people can’t work from home and young people, in particular, are often forced to spend long hours in tiny apartments. The group represents 190,000 businesses employing more than 7 million people.

“The costs of office closure are becoming clearer by the day. Some of our busiest city centers resemble ghost towns, missing the usual bustle of passing trade,″ CBI Director General Carolyn Fairbairn said. “This comes at a high price for local businesses, jobs and communities.”

Fairbairn told Times Radio a “hybrid″ approach that combines remote working with time in traditional workplaces was needed to help workers adjust.



Alison Rose, chief executive of NatWest Group, described such a model last month.

“We’re going to be quite careful and thoughtful about how we bring people back into offices and evolve office space,″ she said. “What we’ll see is a bit more of a hybrid working model, and that’s something we’ll work on very carefully.″

More than 50,000 staff members of NatWest Group will keep working from home into 2021.

The government has been nudging people back to work for several weeks but economic pressures are intensifying.

Treasury chief Rishi Sunak has ruled out extending a government program for furloughed workers beyond October as he seeks to jump-start a moribund economy. The government program covers up to 70% of the wages of furloughed workers, as long as employers promise to bring them back to work.

“I think there’s a limit, just in human terms, to remote working,″ Shapps said. “And there are things where you just need to spark off each other and get together in order to make progress.”

But many workers are reluctant to return to the office with COVID-19 cases on the rise again and Britain already having the highest confirmed virus death toll in Europe at over 41,560 people.

The government recorded 1,522 new daily infections on Thursday, up from a low of 367 on July 12. The figure is still far below the peak of 5,488 cases reported on April 22 but experts say all those numbers undercount the true impact of the pandemic due to limited testing and other factors.

Unions are urging employers to be flexible and recognize that the world of work has changed. Dave Penman, general secretary of the union that represents top civil servants, said government ministers are sounding like “dinosaurs.”

“Millions of employees are working from home very successfully whilst employers are recognizing that the world of work has changed and are embracing it,” he said in a tweet. “The genie won’t fit back in the bottle, best not try.”"

 

[Freeholder]

So, rather than forcing people who are successfully working from home to go back to the office, maybe they should let the free markets play out and re-shape the urban areas? Nah, that makes too much sense.

Kathleen

 

[naturallysweet]

People who need the social atmosphere can already take a laptop to a coffee shop.
The government needs to stay out of this one. The work-from-home thing was one of the benefits of the covid crisis.

 

[MinnesotaSmith]

This won't easily be reversed, even when the .gov wants it to be. Living and/or working in big cities carried MANY costs, not all of them financial. (Just try having a family there if you're not either on welfare or rich AF.)

 

[Luddite]

Was subjected to a conference call with one of our betters from another state. We needed his ahem, blessing, on a couple of big job plans.

We listened to at least 10 minutes of his dog chewing on a squeaky toy. He has been at home since spring. No exaggeration. I left twice during the call to show my displeasure to the foreman sitting there with us.

What squeaky toy wrangler needs to realize, he isn't needed. Of course upper, upper management will never see it that way.

Of course I suggested we forego all this silly preventative maintenance, quit bothering the higher ups and just sweep the floor. We can then run to failure and change parts then. They're leaning my way I think.

Sick of this whole mess.

 

[Cacheman]

In late June my wife's youngest niece was told by the accounting firm she works for in NYC that they'd be going to work from home for all employees permanently. At 28 she decided NYC wasn't for her after all and Wisconsin isn't so bad, now my BIL is on the way to pick her up as her lease is up in a few days.

There's been absolutely nothing available anyplace to move the possessions in her apartment. She's been using Fed Ex to ship any small things to her parents and anything that doesn't fit in BIL's truck and the small U-haul trailer he's taking out will just be left where it sits. She hasn't needed a car since she moved there.

For the past 5 years almost her entire life revolved around a one block area but now all the shops, restaurants, and other businesses are like something in a ghost town. Di Blasio has no plan to open restaurants for indoor dining and they're only barely surviving with the outdoor dining as it is. Most of the people in her area agree once the weather turns cold the city in her area will have been killed by Di Blasio.

Going to be real culture shock for the fiance she's bring along who's never lived anyplace else, first thing she has planned for him is driving school since he's never been behind the wheel in his 30 year life. Both agreed it's time to leave ASAP.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

Well, if it's safe enough to go back to the office, then it's safe enough to go back to the movies. And the bowling alleys. And church. Mustn't forget church. In fact, all these "restrictions" are starting to look pretty stupid. Throw the whole thing out and get herd immunity. Like The Country That Must Not Be Named. Sweden, for us normies.

 

[Cuffo]

My office is back 100% in a few weeks. Lots of pissed workers.

 

[raven]

Working from home causes deflation.
You do not need to buy gas or even a new car. You do not need to buy Lunch. Or Breakfast. Or even a cup of coffee from Starbucks. You don't need a haircut or shave or even toothpaste.
You don't need shoes or sock or pantyhose.
You don't need pants.
And the money you saved . . .pays off your credit cards.
Deflation

 

[Melodi]

This is partly Boris Johnson's bugbear and some of his serious "City" (aka London) bankster buddies, he's been upset for months that people are no longer shopping and eating in downtown London.

I do feel for those employees affected by this massive change in their situation, but not many people I know are willing to go back to spending about 6 to 10 thousand dollars a year commuting in London from the townships nor (more to the point) are many of their employers willing to pay insane rents for giant office blocks just to keep Starbucks in operation.

Even some of those same banks are whose loan departments want to see downtown "busy" again, have CEO's who are delighted to have staff that can work independently do so and saves them those same building rental costs.

 

[bev]

Well, if it's safe enough to go back to the office, then it's safe enough to go back to the movies. And the bowling alleys. And church. Mustn't forget church. In fact, all these "restrictions" are starting to look pretty stupid. Throw the whole thing out and get herd immunity. Like The Country That Must Not Be Named. Sweden, for us normies.

I’m starting to lean that way too, and I am now, unfortunately, in a higher risk group.

 

[The Mountain]

London likely also relies heavily on parking fees, the downtown congestion charge, tax paid on all the things that commuters buy while they're at the office, and so on.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Di Blasio has no plan to open restaurants for indoor dining and they're only barely surviving with the outdoor dining as it is.

There will be NO "outdoor dining" in any northern state after the end of September.

 

[Dennis Olson]

I've worked from home since May. Saved an average of $125/mo on gas, plus sitting in rush hour traffic 2x a day.

I don't care if we NEVER go back to "in-person" facilities. And my dogs love it too.

 

[Ragnarok]

So, rather than forcing people who are successfully working from home to go back to the office, maybe they should let the free markets play out and re-shape the urban areas? Nah, that makes too much sense.

Kathleen

To do that, they would need to let there be a "free market", which there isn't, anymore. Heck, a little kid needs a permit to sell lemonade, these days.

 

[straightstreet]

Before covid DH and I ate out a couple times a week. Now we grocery shop once a month and eat at home. We've saved alot of money.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

There will be NO "outdoor dining" in any northern state after the end of September.

Depends on the year. Sometimes you can push it into October a bit.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Depends on the state too. The upper tier, not bloody likely, unless one enjoys dining outside in 50 deg temps.

 

[FaithfulSkeptic]

I'm not going back to the office. Before all this folderol started, I was working at home all but one day every couple of week anyway, and since the end of March, I haven't been in once. People there ship any equipment I need. Monthly, it has saved me 60+ hours driving and hundred$ in gas. In all, I'm far more productive ... no point in going back.

The one thing this remote work required, however, was an Azure cloud server for our SVN repository because the office IT wouldn't loosen the firewall enough for a viable VPN. I suspect paranoid due to a past randsomware incident, so I don't blame them. The VPN to the Azure server, however, is incredibly fast and I can save all my work there with no delays.

 

[Cacheman]

My office is back 100% in a few weeks. Lots of pissed workers.

Those pajama party workers are the ones screaming the loudest to keep things shut down as much as possible just so they can keep working from home and they don't give a damn about the rest of us and our lives.

 

[MinnesotaSmith]

Depends on the state too. The upper tier, not bloody likely, unless one enjoys dining outside in 50 deg temps.

Yeah, not having gnats, flies, mosquitoes, etc., to chew on you during your meal just blows. /s

I remember late October in Mpls being pleasant during daylight. Cold enough to inhibit natives didn't come til Nov.

 

[Macgyver]

There will be NO "outdoor dining" in any northern state after the end of September.

NJ and nyc should be able to hold out into October for out doors. Upstate NY not so much.

 

[Melodi]

Those pajama party workers are the ones screaming the loudest to keep things shut down as much as possible just so they can keep working from home and they don't give a damn about the rest of us and our lives.

I fail to understand how if someone is working productively from home and getting their job done, how that is "not giving a damn about the rest of us and our lives?"

My Housemate is an engineer who works on designing equipment for water treatment plants and while it was difficult at first, almost her whole office now works from home and may very well stay that way.

The "future" would probably look like mostly working from home, with occasional visits to the workshop and/or sites that need inspecting or hands-on work.

In her case, it means being able to live at "home" and not renting a room out of town 5 nights a week too, though for most of her team it just meant setting up a home office.

And yes, in the short term, people who work in cafes, bars, parking garages, newsagents, etc are going to suffer and probably close down, especially in crowded city centers, but trying to force both employees and employers into an old fashioned "box" that mostly existed so that paranoid managers could observe people sitting at their desks at all times doesn't seem to really be worth it.

There are some jobs obviously that must be done in person, there are others like my housemates that will require some office and site time, but a lot of the basic paper-pushing type jobs that a lot of people have (especially in places like London's financial district) are done by people who know their jobs, are motivated to get them done and often are not allowed to work in PJ's (my housemate isn't).

But companies are saving a bundle replacing endless meetings with shorter zoom calls (and saving on business travel also) while employees are saving sometimes 1/3 of their salary they are not spending on the unbelievably expensive commuter trains to London and/or the outrageous parking charges that "raise money" for The City. People (and employers) even have to pay to just drive into the City - so there is a huge incentive to find creative ways to take the work elsewhere.

Look for "hubs" to get set up in smaller towns and cities if these trends continue, yeah the ones that were really just the last resort of the desperate pretending to go to an office (like We Work) were/are failing but they may just be kind of ahead of their time.

 

[Old Gray Mare]

Well, if it's safe enough to go back to the office, then it's safe enough to go back to the movies. And the bowling alleys. And church. Mustn't forget church. In fact, all these "restrictions" are starting to look pretty stupid. Throw the whole thing out and get herd immunity. Like The Country That Must Not Be Named. Sweden, for us normies.

They want their cake and to eat it to.

NJ and nyc should be able to hold out into October for out doors. Upstate NY not so much.

May not be the problem you anticipate.

As a young kid mom worked and we grew up on takeout in New Jersey. Time of year didn't matter we had takeout. She'd vary the ethnic takeouts so we didn't get board; subs, chinese spare ribs, gooey cheese cover lasagna in aluminum containers, KFC.... good memories...

 

[Blacknarwhal]

Yeah, not having gnats, flies, mosquitoes, etc., to chew on you during your meal just blows. /s

I remember late October in Mpls being pleasant during daylight. Cold enough to inhibit natives didn't come til Nov.

Ditto in Michigan. Some people are out grilling in November. Football season and all!

 

[Switchback]

Commercial real estate collapse. Everyone can watch it working from home.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Some people are out grilling in November.

“Some people” aren’t enough to save restaurants. And I PROMISE you that once the temps hit the upper 40’s, “outdoor dining” is over until April. You can bleat about “those hardy souls of the north” all you want, but I know better.

 

[Faroe]

Less clothing, less restaurant waste, fewer disposable Starbuck coffee cups, less gas, back to single car households...
The Greenies should be thrilled.
For once, I agree with them. The less needless consumerism, the better.

London, NYC, and the rest of the mega cities will just have to adjust. The already killed themselves with immigration and welfare. Trying to force people to come back won't bring people back.

 

[Luddite]

paranoid managers could observe people sitting at their desks at all times

IMO, those creatures are as useful as tits on a boar hog.

Yes, technical people can thrive from working at home.

Gotta ask what many ceo's and shareholders will ask: Why can't we have someone from India hit send rather than someone from Derbyshire or Debuque? For half the cost...

Dated a woman years ago that did radiology work in a small, rural hospital. All her pics went round the world to be read. Still wonder why that sort of thing hasn't gained more popularity.

Wouldn't this cut down on some H1b visas?

 

[Blacknarwhal]

“Some people” aren’t enough to save restaurants. And I PROMISE you that once the temps hit the upper 40’s, “outdoor dining” is over until April. You can bleat about “those hardy souls of the north” all you want, but I know better.

True, but "some people" can give restaurants a fighting chance until things improve. And hopefully we'll start seeing that as more pushback comes in on the dems. You know it's happening. Michigan's about ready to pull Whitmer's teeth one way or another.

 

[Faroe]

IMO, those creatures are as useful as tits on a boar hog.

Yes, technical people can thrive from working at home.

Gotta ask what many ceo's and shareholders will ask: Why can't we have someone from India hit send rather than someone from Derbyshire or Debuque? For half the cost...

Shrug. If it works for them so be it. Doubt half the cost...working with different cultures will incur hidden costs. Looks good on paper, until the business gets burned with lies, and padded resumes, and blown deadlines.

 

[Faroe]

True, but "some people" can give restaurants a fighting chance until things improve. And hopefully we'll start seeing that as more pushback comes in on the dems. You know it's happening. Michigan's about ready to pull Whitmer's teeth one way or another.

The old urban economies are dying. It is what it is.

 

[Sozo]

We go out to eat on occasion, but recently, many of the restaurants that had reopened their dining rooms have shut them down again.
You can place a to-go order, but if I have to eat at home, I'm going to cook at home.

It's their own fault they aren't getting business. I'm not sitting in a drive-thru for half an hour to get an incorrect order, then have to drive all the way home just to eat it.

We only frequent restaurants that have their dining rooms open.

Same goes for retail stores. A few have online ordering only, and you can go to the store and pick it up.
If I have to order online, I'll just get it from Amazon.

Today's example:
After dinner, we just wanted to get out of the house and sit down somewhere to have ice cream and coffee.
We went to 3 local places that have ice cream & coffee, and all three were drive-thru only.

Sometimes, it's not just about eating, it's just a change of scenery.

 

[TKO]

I've worked from home since May. Saved an average of $125/mo on gas, plus sitting in rush hour traffic 2x a day.

I don't care if we NEVER go back to "in-person" facilities. And my dogs love it too.

The thought of going back to the open concept office makes me wretch. I am saving a lot of money working from home, the company is really getting more time of out me, I am able to sleep in a little more since I don't have to commute, I can get stuff done at home during lunch, and I have only filled up my car maybe 2 times since this mess started. I am loving the savings.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

It's not just London! It's New York too!

Fair use cited so on and so forth.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

NYC Landlords Wage War Against Remote Working

by Tyler Durden

Sat, 08/29/2020 - 16:40

New York City's biggest landlords have a major dilemma; that is, companies like Citigroup, JP Morgan, Google, Twitter, and Facebook all encouraged their employees to work remotely from home, which will result in a slower economic recovery.


Jeff Blau, chief executive officer of Related Cos., was on Bloomberg Television Thursday talking about the dire situation, and the campaign he is waging, along with other top landlords to convince companies that their employees should return to offices to avoid damaging the local economy.

"If you go to the business districts, Midtown, it's deserted," Blau said "If employers tell their employees that they don't need to come back, they're going decide to hang out at their parents' or in the Hamptons and phone it in. Ultimately, businesses are not going to be able to survive that."

Blau said big banks are bringing a new wave of recruits into the city this fall that will require them to work in offices. He said he's spoken with top firms in the town, asking them to return their workforce to offices.

"You can't run a business on Zoom," he said.

Earlier this month, former hedge fund manager James Altucher told Fox Business that New York City is dead:

"We have something like 30 to 50 percent of the restaurants in New York City are probably already out of business, and they're not coming back," Altucher said.

He said many offices in Midtown Manhattan are open but mostly empty as remote working has allowed employees to abandon the city for suburbia.

"This completely damages not only the economic eco-system of New York City…but what happens to your tax base when all of your workers can now live anywhere they want to in the country?" asked the fund manager.

Altucher warned the situation is "only going to get worse" - as Wall Street firms are now considering a mass exodus.



When firms break their lease, or let ones expire, and or shrink their corporate footprint, rental income for landlords like Blau will see declines, and if their portfolio of buildings is highly leveraged, it could result in, as we explain in "Stunning Surge In New CMBS Delinquencies Heralds Commercial Real Estate Disaster," the coming commercial real estate bust.


Blau and other landlords are waging war against remote working. The big question: Will they succeed?

 

[Old Gray Mare]

"NYC Landlords Wage War Against Remote Working"

They can shout at the tide not to come in. That won't work either.

 

[Melodi]

On the exporting of jobs, that happened years ago with things like Data Entry (I was a certified operator), funny that one happened exactly at the same time courts ruled that US corporations and workplaces had to safeguard the health of employees with mandatory breaks (for sound medical reasons) and proper work stations.

Those changes were mandated for real medical reasons and settled lawsuits - I remember when one big corporation said "we don't have time to employ people on breaks" so they moved it all over to India.

Carrots and sticks could be used to prevent this trend from happening again, tax breaks for corporations/businesses that keep their business in the US (or at least limited to US citizen/permanent residents and spouses), and fees for EVERY SINGLE non-national hired or job outsourced.

Also, end the last of the tax breaks that make it cheaper for corporations to locate overseas instead of in the USA.

Maybe even set up a temporary program that pays them a small amount for every US-based worker or citizen who is hired to replace someone on an HB-1 VISA and for goodness sakes end that program!

 

[SurfaceTension]

I'm also in a technical field and the only downfall or difficulty I'm having is in the training/mentoring of new or younger employees. A lot impromptu collaboration, conversation, and problem-solving happened over cubicle walls, and even those not involved in the project benefitted from the discussions. I'm working on trying to recreate that atmosphere virtually, but it'll never be as omnipresent as it was in our office.

 

[Old Gray Mare]

Carrots and sticks could be used to prevent this trend from happening again, tax breaks for corporations/businesses that keep their business in the US (or at least limited to US citizen/permanent residents and spouses), and fees for EVERY SINGLE non-national hired or job outsourced.

Also, end the last of the tax breaks that make it cheaper for corporations to locate overseas instead of in the USA.

Maybe even set up a temporary program that pays them a small amount for every US-based worker or citizen who is hired to replace someone on an HB-1 VISA and for goodness sakes end that program!

Now that's funny right there, true, but funny. Socialists giving tax breaks? The State and Federal government giving Multinational corporations Tax breaks? Forgoing revenue? End the HB-1 visas?

Maybe? Maybe President Trump can swing that deal? I wouldn't put it past him, but it will be a challenge even for him. IMO Congress would only allow it to happen if their backs were to the wall, literally.

Wasn't Deutsche bank along with other major banks in the news, something about it having trillions in dangerous derivative exposure? Maybe enough to bring down the house of cards that is international fiat currency? There was chatter about that possibility in 2019 that has since gone quiet. I doubt the problem went away. Who knows? Maybe that treat has disappeared?

Or maybe a financial collapse would be the stick to force responsible financial reforms like Melodi suggested?

 

[Practical]

You said stay home, so everyone stayed home. If was government short sightedness that caused it, all the months of propaganda that encouraged it, the endless death tolls and weak reporting that kept it going, and now you want to snap your fingers and say 'just kidding'? Can't have it both ways folks. Too dangerous to get together and vote, but you can get together to work to support the lobby coffee bar? Which was it is going to be .gov?