I had a minute
\
Dr. Fauci and the New York Times confirmed the PCR tests are too sensitive to be considered worth anything.
Zero Hedge – The FDA on Monday joined The WHO and Dr. Fauci in admitting there is a notable risk of false results from the standard PCR-Test used to define whether an individual is a COVID “Case” or not. [Full FDA statement below.] This matters significantly as it fits perfectly with the ‘fake...
headlinehealth.com
Took me 30 seconds to search for "Fauci pcr test cycles.
Finally got out of my sick bed. Probably fall into it later. It is a rather up and down bug. Definitely not Covid.
I have been thinking about your post and I realise we are talking about two totally different things. Took me a lot more than 30 secs to write a reply.
I talk about the results of the test. Is virus detected? Yes or No? In 4% of cases the virus is detected (false positive), and it should not have been. In 30% of cases the virus is not detected and it should have been (false negative).
You are arguing about the interpretation of the test.
Getting a positive result forces someone to self-isolate. It is bad for the person mentally, emotionally, economically etc. That person can't go to work, and it affects businesses. And so on. A positive Covid result creates huge number of problems for everyone. You are calling someone who is not infectious a false positive. Not accurate.
Our simple classification of positive / negative result is the problem. We need a 3rd category - positive, but unlikely to be infectious. And that group needs to be tested again and again, to see if their viral load goes up, in which case they should isolate, or not, in which case they are free to go about their daily lives. Calling the 3rd category false positive, is sloppy thinking. Typical of journalists. Well maybe that is a bit harsh. They are probably trying to simplify this incredible complex subject, for their readers. A journalist writes for someone who is 12.
Think of a positive test after 35/40 cycles, as like hearing the outcome of a court case. Has the prosecution secured a conviction or not? The person who walks free from court after a not guilty verdict, could be as innocent as the purest of white snow, or guilty as charge; or anything in between. We don’t know. We just know they were not found guilty. Similarly a positive test after 35/40 cycles, could indicate someone who is not infectious, but it could also indicate someone who is incubating the disease, and will become a super spreader in 2 days time; or anything in between. Essentially what all these articles are saying is that anyone who gets a positive test after 35/ 40 cycles is not likely to spread the disease. That is equivalent to saying that every person found not guilty and walks free from court is as innocent as a new born baby.
A PCR test is mere a snapshot in time. What would be better is to run 3 PCR tests over 12 hours, to see if their viral load is increasing or not. Should they self-isolate, or not. Given the impracticality of that suggestion, society has gone for the simple option, positive test - self-isolate.
Life isn't simple. Most people are looking for simple solutions. Let’s just have 2 genders, when there are in fact multiple genders. Let’s lock criminals up, instead of looking at all the rest of things that can be done to reduce crime. Or let’s ban abortion, and simply ignore the truly horrible things that happen when we do. And so on. Let’s go for the in your face, simple solution, and ignore everything else, despite how many problems it causes everyone. And as someone said here - simple solutions for complex problems rarely work.
No I don't have the "perfect" solution, because there is not one. People create a messy, untidy world, and it is what we have to deal with.
So given the limitations of the situation what should be done? Go back to the 14th century, where they used to nail the doors shut of a victim’s house. Well if the Black Death did not get you, you would starve to death. Or let everyone roam free, and overwhelm the hospitals to such an extent that cancer patients, heart attack, strike, road crash victims, etc. die. Or create a compromise. That very word, indicates an imperfect solution. I know people on this board are looking the in your face, simple, but perfect solution. It does not exist.
India and Brazil are perfect examples of what happens if you don’t do something to control the virus. And even in the UK, it is reckoned that many thousands of people every month will die for the next few years, because they did not get prompt medical treatment.
This is an unprecedented situation. A disease that spreads easily and is killking people at all ages, and leaving many disabled for life. Mom2many post (post 299) will probably never fully recover her sense of smell. Many lose their sense of smell completely, and for an unfortunate few, yes their smell comes back, but all they can smell is sick and poo. Covid affects very part a person's body, and can leave you with damaged organs, brain problems, bone ache etc. And kills them months / years later. Or ir gives them Long Covid. 1 in 40 people. In the USA around 43 million people have had Covid, so there are likley to be at least 800 plus people with long Covid, ie left with a disability.
So true false positives run at around 4%, cases where the virus is detected and it should not have been. In 30% of cases virus is not detected and it should have been(false negative).
What is worrying is about 30% of people who are not identified, is that they are out there spreading the disease. Feeds into the next article.
I did find this article
Big Mass. Study Finds You Could Be Symptom-Free But Still Carry High Load Of Coronavirus
That showed you could be symptom free, but still have Covid-19 and be infectious. So more testing required. And it is something that is echoed in most articles.
So let's get back to the article you posted.
Point 1
1. Experts compiled three datasets with officials from the states of Massachusetts, New York and Nevada that conclude: “Up to 90% of the people who tested positive did not carry a virus.”
Finally found an article about this
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)
What they actually said was that the PCR was often identifying people who have/had coronavirus, but were not infectious, so scarce resources were being directed at the walking well. These people still had Covid, but their viral load was so low that they were unlikely to infect anyone else. It did *NOT* show people who tested positive did not have the virus. In fact the researchers recommend, that if someone tests positive at 35/ 40 cycles, then they should have another PCR tests a few hours later, and possibly another one a few hours after that, to see if their viral load goes up and they are infectious. So more testing required. It also talks about testing those who are asymptomatic too.
It is probably true of all the rest of the articles. If you test positive for Covid, you have got Covid. Now whether you are infectious is entirely another question. Whether you should self isolate is another matter.
Point 2
2. The Wadworth Center, a New York State laboratory, analyzed the results of its July tests at the request of the NYT: 794 positive tests with a Ct of 40: “With a Ct threshold of 35, approximately half of these PCR tests would no longer be considered positive,” said the NYT. “And about 70% would no longer be considered positive with a Ct of 30! “
Well if you go back to
Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020) you find out at the end the numbers were misreported.
It was 872 tests, not 794.
And so on brings number of tests down to 43 percent, BUT..... we do not know how many people were incubating the disease at the time of the test as no 2nd/3rd tests was performed.
It also brings into question the article from which this exert came, as clearly the person who wrote it could not do basic research to find out if they were passing on correct information.
point 3
3. An appeals court in Portugal has ruled that the PCR process is not a reliable test for Sars-Cov-2, and therefore any enforced quarantine based on those test results is unlawful.
This one is simple
Covid PCR test reliability doubtful – Portugal judges
Portuguese law says only a doctor can authorise the detention of a person, and as the detention was not authorised by a medical professional, it was illegal, and the German tourists should be released.
Yes the judge did talk about the PCR test. But the main reason the tourists were released, is that their detention was illegal under Portuguese law. The accuracy or otherwise of the PCR test was a secondary consideration.
point 4
4. A new study from the Infectious Diseases Society of America, found that at 25 cycles of amplification, 70% of PCR test “positives” are not “cases” since the virus cannot be cultured, it’s dead. And by 35: 97% of the positives are non-clinical.
back to people have Covid, they are not infectious. So it is about the interpretation of that results. But as the PCR test is merely a snapshot in time, we have no way of knowing, If a positive results indicate someone who is not infectious; someone who is incubating the disease, and will become a super spreader in 2 days time; or anything in between.
Point 5
5. PCR is not testing for disease, it’s testing for a specific RNA pattern and this is the key pivot. When you crank it up to 25, 70% of the positive results are not really “positives” in any clinical sense, since it cannot make you or anyone else sick
Already been through this more than once.
The PCR test was designed to amplify DNA, so in that sense Kary Mullins who is now dead, was right - it was a DNA amplification process, not an infectious disease test. BUT.... it works as one. The material from a swab has its DNA amplified until there is enough material, to say whether, Covid -19 material is there.
If the test finds Covid DNA it is in there. Now why you get false positives(or for that case false negatives) is an extremely complex subject.
Having looked at the FDA press release I am glad to see that you agree with me that there is a high rate of false negatives
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is alerting patients and health care providers of the risk of false results, particularly false negative results, with the Curative SARS-Cov-2 test
Anrol