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Governments must act swiftly to prevent outbreak, officials say
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 11:24 a.m. ET Feb. 23, 2005
World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of the bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus.
The bird flu has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say.
“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.
He said the world is “now overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20-30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one.
Speaking at the opening of a three-day bird flu conference in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, Omi said it is critical that the international community better coordinate its fight against the virus.
As bird flu experts meet to devise plans to combat the H5N1 virus, scientists said they lacked knowledge about whether the strain that has led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds has the pandemic potential of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.
They cautioned that more evidence is needed about how infectious it is in humans.
To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 would have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans who have no protection against it.
“We don’t know whether the virus that is currently circulating among poultry in southeast Asia, the H5N1, will eventually be able to reassort its genetic material with a human influenza virus. That is the key question,” Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading European virologist at Erasmus University Hospital in Rotterdam, told Reuters in an interview.
So far the H5N1 strain has shown no evidence that it has become highly infectious in humans. Scientists also do not know how many people may have been exposed to it.
But Laurence Tiley, a molecular virologist at Cambridge University in England, said the H5N1 strain is lethal.
“It is the most likely candidate for adapting and becoming a pandemic strain because we are not going to be able to get rid of it easily,” he said.
Preparedness plans urged
The mortality rate among identified patients who contract the disease from chickens and ducks is about 72 percent, said Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
She said Tuesday that the CDC is working with the WHO in the Asian region to help control the emerging new strain, which she described as “worrisome.” But she clarified her earlier statement about a possible avian flu pandemic.
"We are ... not on the brink of an avian flu epidemic," she said at a National Press Club luncheon
In comparing the deadly bird flu virus to severe acute respiratory syndrome, which killed nearly 800 people in 2003, Omi said, “If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous, and certainly much greater than SARS."
“This is why we are urging all governments to work now on a pandemic preparedness plan — so that even in an emergency such as this they will be able to provide basic public services such as transport, sanitation and power,” he said.
The disease, which devastated the region’s poultry industry last year as it swept through nearly a dozen countries, has killed 32 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian over the past year.
Officials acknowledge that one of the biggest challenges in controlling avian flu is in altering traditional farming practices in Asia where animals live in close, often unsanitary quarters with people.
'Very resilient' virus
Dr. Samuel Jutzi, of the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said the avian flu virus will persist in Asia for years and coordinated efforts need to focus on controlling it at its source — in animals.
“This means addressing the transmission of the virus where the disease occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland dwelling ducks, and thus curbing the disease occurrence in the region before it spreads to other parts of the world,” he said.
The challenge for many countries affected by the virus is the lack of effective diagnostic tools and surveillance systems needed for early warning and timely response, he said.
The regional conference held in southern Ho Chi Minh City near the Mekong Delta where the latest outbreaks emerged this year has brought together scientists and representatives from more than two dozen countries.
Bird flu’s reemergence in Vietnam, where 12 people have died this year alone, has shown the virus is now endemic in parts of the region.
“The longer the virus is circulating in animals, including chickens and ducks, the greater the risk of human cases — and consequently, the higher the risk of a pandemic virus emerging through genetic changes in the virus,” Omi said.
The virus has proven to be “very versatile and very resilient,” and has even been found in animals such as tigers and cats that weren’t believed to be susceptible to influenza, he added.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 11:24 a.m. ET Feb. 23, 2005
World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of the bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus.
The bird flu has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say.
“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.
He said the world is “now overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20-30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one.
Speaking at the opening of a three-day bird flu conference in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, Omi said it is critical that the international community better coordinate its fight against the virus.
As bird flu experts meet to devise plans to combat the H5N1 virus, scientists said they lacked knowledge about whether the strain that has led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds has the pandemic potential of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.
They cautioned that more evidence is needed about how infectious it is in humans.
To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 would have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans who have no protection against it.
“We don’t know whether the virus that is currently circulating among poultry in southeast Asia, the H5N1, will eventually be able to reassort its genetic material with a human influenza virus. That is the key question,” Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading European virologist at Erasmus University Hospital in Rotterdam, told Reuters in an interview.
So far the H5N1 strain has shown no evidence that it has become highly infectious in humans. Scientists also do not know how many people may have been exposed to it.
But Laurence Tiley, a molecular virologist at Cambridge University in England, said the H5N1 strain is lethal.
“It is the most likely candidate for adapting and becoming a pandemic strain because we are not going to be able to get rid of it easily,” he said.
Preparedness plans urged
The mortality rate among identified patients who contract the disease from chickens and ducks is about 72 percent, said Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
She said Tuesday that the CDC is working with the WHO in the Asian region to help control the emerging new strain, which she described as “worrisome.” But she clarified her earlier statement about a possible avian flu pandemic.
"We are ... not on the brink of an avian flu epidemic," she said at a National Press Club luncheon
In comparing the deadly bird flu virus to severe acute respiratory syndrome, which killed nearly 800 people in 2003, Omi said, “If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous, and certainly much greater than SARS."
“This is why we are urging all governments to work now on a pandemic preparedness plan — so that even in an emergency such as this they will be able to provide basic public services such as transport, sanitation and power,” he said.
The disease, which devastated the region’s poultry industry last year as it swept through nearly a dozen countries, has killed 32 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian over the past year.
Officials acknowledge that one of the biggest challenges in controlling avian flu is in altering traditional farming practices in Asia where animals live in close, often unsanitary quarters with people.
'Very resilient' virus
Dr. Samuel Jutzi, of the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said the avian flu virus will persist in Asia for years and coordinated efforts need to focus on controlling it at its source — in animals.
“This means addressing the transmission of the virus where the disease occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland dwelling ducks, and thus curbing the disease occurrence in the region before it spreads to other parts of the world,” he said.
The challenge for many countries affected by the virus is the lack of effective diagnostic tools and surveillance systems needed for early warning and timely response, he said.
The regional conference held in southern Ho Chi Minh City near the Mekong Delta where the latest outbreaks emerged this year has brought together scientists and representatives from more than two dozen countries.
Bird flu’s reemergence in Vietnam, where 12 people have died this year alone, has shown the virus is now endemic in parts of the region.
“The longer the virus is circulating in animals, including chickens and ducks, the greater the risk of human cases — and consequently, the higher the risk of a pandemic virus emerging through genetic changes in the virus,” Omi said.
The virus has proven to be “very versatile and very resilient,” and has even been found in animals such as tigers and cats that weren’t believed to be susceptible to influenza, he added.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report