[hlth/flu pandemic] warning-h5ab1 type a influenza pandemic likely coming

[Signwatcher]

Warning - H5N1 Type A
Influenza Pandemic
Likely Coming
From Robert Lee
rboblee@mchsi.com
1-23-5


Hi, Jeff - Info you should be aware of:

Warning: Deadly H5N1 Type A Influenza Pandemic Likely Coming

The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the specter of human-to-human transmission of deadly H5N1 avian influenza following confirmation that two Vietnamese brothers had contracted the virus and one had died. WHO confirmed that laboratory results had found the two brothers from northern Vietnam had been infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. According to WHO, "All evidence to date suggests that isolated instances of limited, unsustained human-to-human transmission can be expected from avian influenza viruses in humans." Seven of Vietnam's total 27 H5N1-related human deaths have occurred in the last three weeks (first 3 weeks of January 2005).

http://www.boston.com/

The H5N1 avian influenza has also spread to felines. According to WHO there is evidence suggesting that H5N1 avian influenza was expanding its range of mammal hosts, including captive tigers and experimentally infected domestic cats.

see
http://www.boston.com/

There is growing evidence that limited human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is occurring.

see
http://www.recombinomics.com/

H5N1 avian influenza is a single-stranded RNA negative-strand virus in the Orthomyxoviridae family of viruses. H5N1 avian influenza virus is considered to be a type of "Influenzavirus Type A."
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/

see
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/

Other strains of Influenzavirus Type A have made their way into the human population from birds and/or intermediate species, e.g., swine, and have achieved sustained human-to-human transmission. More well known examples of Type A flu pandemics in the human population include the 1968 Hong Kong flu...

see
http://biology.about.com/

see also
http://biology.about.com/


...which killed 700,000 people worldwide. The most severe influenza epidemic of recent times was the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic which killed more than 20 million people worldwide and infected approximately 50% of the population of some countries, e.g., Switzerland at that time.

see
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/


It has been estimated, based on the mortality rates of those humans who have been infected with H5N1 avian influenza, that more than 70% of infected individuals might die from a sustained human-to-human H5N1 pandemic.

see
http://www.recombinomics.com/

As of 5 January 2005, the H5N1 virus had caused 45 confirmed human cases, of which 32 were fatal

see
http://www.recombinomics.com/

or a little over 70% fatality. In comparison, SARS had an initial fatality rate of approximately 13% and was very inefficiently transmitted from one person to another when compared to influenza.

Were a sustained global pandemic of H5N1 influenza to develop, it is entirely possible that some billions - with a "B" - of humans, certainly hundreds of millions, could die from the disease worldwide. There is currently no vaccine for H5N1 influenza though efforts are underway in different countries to develop a human vaccine.

see
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/

To consider the impact of a sustained H5N1 influenza pandemic in the United States, it is reasonable to consider it possible that 10s of millions of Americans might die from such an epidemic were no vaccine available and quarantines employed. Even with a vaccine available, if it is developed and effectively administered, it is reasonable to consider an extremely conservative estimate of some few million US people killed by a sustained H5N1 pandemic. In the 3rd world where health services are fragile and inefficient, fatalities will surely exceed several hundred million people.

Clearly, it is only a matter of time until H5N1 Type A influenza becomes a global pandemic with potentially catastrophic impact. It is now time to pay attention to H5N1 Type A influenza.

Thanks for your news service,

Professor Robert E. Lee, M.S., M.S.W., L.C.S.W.

 

[NoCarrier]

lol..

Amazing how no one cares about that story..

 

[MaureenO]

lol..

Amazing how no one cares about that story..

I don't think a lot of people know what H5N1 is and don't realise how catastrophic it could become if this scenerio pans out.

My great-grandfather lost several siblings in the 1918 version.

Maureen

 

[JPD]

Plans made for 'overdue' flu disaster

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1453925,00.html

Britain-January 24, 2005

By Greg Hurst, Political Correspondent

DOOMSDAY plans have been drawn up by the Government to cope with an influenza pandemic. Quarantine centres for sufferers, a makeshift mortuary for hundreds or more dead and even the evacuation of entire cities feature in the plans, The Times has learnt.

An outbreak of a new and deadly flu virus, probably imported from South-East Asia, poses the gravest risk of overwhelming public services, Whitehall planners believe.

Ministers have been advised that a flu pandemic is “overdue”. These tend to occur in 20 to 30-year cycles and there were three in the 20th century, all of which spread worldwide.

The worst was in 1918, when a flu epidemic centred on Bombay, India, spread to Glasgow and then other towns here. Over several months, 228,000 people died in Britain. Worldwide the number of dead was estimated at 20 million.

“The biggest risk facing this country is not terrorism, but a flu epidemic. The statisticians say one is overdue,” a senior government source said. “Some of the details of our planning are very graphic. It keeps me awake at night.”

A serious epidemic in Britain could leave parts of the NHS unable to cope, as many hospitals operate close to capacity already, particularly in London. In this event, health chiefs would try to transfer patients to surrounding hospitals.

Pressure on mortuary facilities is also a key concern. A temporary mortuary is on standby in case there are hundreds of fatalities in one or more communities. The inflatable structure is large enough to hold hundreds of bodies in chilled conditions until they can be buried or cremated.

Thousands of people trying to flee to Britain to escape the virus would be held in quarantine to try to stop it from spreading. They would probably be held in secure children’s accommodation and outdoor activity centres.

As a last resort, the population of a whole town or city would be evacuated if a deadly epidemic within it threatened the rest of the population.

Railway stations and rolling stock would be commandeered and mass movements of people made by train.

The plans assume that local roads would be gridlocked by fleeing families.

Detailed contingency plans for the evacuation of London, codenamed Operation Sassoon, are in place and would be adapted if needed for other cities.

The most likely scenario is thought to be that an outbreak similar to avian flu, which has killed 31 people in Thailand, Vietnam and China, might escalate and spread to Britain through human contact.

The priority would be to halt entry into Britain from affected areas by signing agreements with any affected country for screening at airports to prevent people ill with influenza from boarding flights to Britain. Only if such steps failed or came too late would the more drastic step of holding people in quarantine after their arrival be taken.

Mass vaccination is another option if the disease swept Britain. Large stocks of vaccines are held as a precaution, but sources admit they may be insufficient to inoculate the entire population or may not be effective against a new virus, which would require the development and production of a new vaccine.

Plans for a temporary mortuary and evacuation of towns or cities would take effect only in extreme circumstances.

There were three flu pandemics in the 20th century: Spanish flu in 1918-19, Asian flu in 1957-58 and Hong Kong flu in 1968-69.

 

[JPD]

VIETNAM BIRD FLU TOLL MOVES TO NINE AFTER TWO DIE

(Caps are the websites-in all caps)

http://www.mcot.org/query.php?nid=35079

HANOI, JAN 23 (QNA-TNA) - TWO MORE DEATHS HAVE BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO BIRD FLU IN VIETNAM, BRINGING THE TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS SINCE DECEMBER 30
TO NINE, OFFICIALS SAID SATURDAY.

A 35-YEAR-OLD WOMAN, MAI THI TRUC LY, DIED FRIDAY, ONE DAY AFTER BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE TROPICAL DISEASES HOSPITAL IN HO CHI MINH CITY AND TESTED POSITIVE FOR H5N1 THE SAME DAY.

THE WOMAN, WHO HAD SPENT THE PREVIOUS EIGHT DAYS IN THE CAO LANH HOSPITAL IN DONG THAP PROVINCE, SLAUGHTERED A DUCK FOR HER FAMILY SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE BECOMING ILL, SAID NGUYEN NGOC AN, DIRECTOR OF DONG THAP'S PREVENTIVE MEDICINE CENTRE.

A 17-YEAR-OLD BOY, BUI TAN TAI, WHO DIED ON JANUARY 15 ALSO TESTED POSITIVE FOR BIRD FLU FRIDAY, SAID PHAN VAN TU, DIRECTOR OF THE LABORATORY AT THE PASTEUR INSTITUTE IN HO CHI MINH CITY.

THE BOY'S 22-YEAR-OLD SISTER IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF THE ILLNESS AND HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED TO THE TROPICAL DISEASES HOSPITAL, SAID TRAN LE MINH, DIRECTOR OF BAC LIEU GENERAL HOSPITAL.

THE FAMILY LIVES NEXT TO A MARKET THAT HAD AN OUTBREAK OF BIRD FLU.

THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION HAS REPEATEDLY WARNED THAT IF THE DISEASE, WHICH HAS A 70 PER CENT FATALITY RATE, BECAME TRANSMISSIBLE BETWEEN HUMANS IT COULD CAUSE A GLOBAL PANDEMIC AND KILL MILLIONS OF
PEOPLE WORLDWIDE.

SO FAR ALMOST ALL OF THE CASES IN VIETNAM HAVE BEEN TRACED TO VICTIMS HAVING CONTACT WITH SICK BIRDS.

AN OUTBREAK OF THE DISEASE LAST YEAR KILLED 20 PEOPLE IN VIETNAM AND 12 IN THAILAND AND LED TO THE DEATH OR SLAUGHTER OF AROUND 100 MILLION BIRDS ACROSS ASIA.

SINCE MID-DECEMBER, BIRD FLU HAS SPREAD TO 22 PROVINCES, THREE IN THE NORTH OF THE COUNTRY AND THE REMAINDER IN THE MEKONG DELTA REGION.
MORE THAN 400,000 BIRDS HAVE DIED OR BEEN CULLED AS A RESULT OF BIRD FLU, ACCORDING TO THE MINISTRY OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT.(QNA-TNA)--E002

 

[JPD]

More Efficient Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Vietnam

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01230501/H5N1_Transmission_Efficient.html

More Efficient Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Vietnam

Recombinomics Commentary
January 23, 2005

>>Samples from the patient named Hung, who is receiving treatment at the Tropical Disease Institute in Hanoi, were tested positive to H5N1, local newspaper Pioneer on Monday quoted Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Health Tran Chi Liem as saying.
Earlier, samples from Hung's two brothers were also tested positive to the virus. The tests were made by the National Hygiene and Epidemiology Institute. The three brothers ate duck and a dish made from duck's raw blood at a local market on Dec. 29, 2004, before exhibiting symptoms of bird flu>>.

The timing of the onset of symptoms strongly suggests three generations of infections by H5N1, which is the longest reported chain of transmission. Although the Dec 29, 2004 meal mat have been the source of virus that led to symptoms on Jan 1 for the fatal case, the 42 year old brother did not develop symptoms until Jan 9, consistent with transmission from the fatal case to the 42 year old brother. The 36 year old brother was admitted a week after the 42 year old brother, consistent with another round of transmission.

In addition to these three H5N1 positive brothers in the north, the sister (22F) of a confirmed fatal case (17M) in the south has also been hospitalized with avian influenza symptoms. Thus, from the two clusters there have been 4 confirmed and 1 suspect case and in both clusters the relatives developed symptoms after each index case died.

These likely human to human transmission clusters account for 4 of the 10 confirmed bird flu cases this season, which suggests that H5N1 has become more efficient at human to human transmission.

 

[whitebird]

Thank you Signwatcher for starting the thread.

And I agree with one of the other replies, it's indeed amazing how the "real stuff" does not get much of a run on the internet these days......noticed this a lot lately. (and not just on this forum) Perhaps the "cry wolf syndrome" - and/or nobody wants to read bad news anymore? Understandable - heavens knows, there's been enough of it in the past few weeks.

Irrespective, I've included a link to an article in the F.T. (London Financial Times) "WHO issues alert over Flu Pandemic Fears" January 21 2005.......wonder what they mean by "may be imminent"?.........any rate, I don't like the sound of the way the statement reads, so I checked up on a few things today.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ad5b0948-6b50-11d9-9357-00000e2511c8.html

Best to all
Whitebird.