ECON FUNG RED ALERT: World Bank Issues Dire Warning About Ebola's Economic Impact

[doctor_fungcool]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-world-bank-issues-dire-warning-about-economic-impact/

World Bank issues dire warning about Ebola’s economic impact

The economic impact of the Ebola epidemic could reach $32.6 billion by the end of next year if the disease ravaging Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone spreads to neighboring countries in West Africa, the World Bank Group said Wednesday. The World Bank’s assessment said the economic impact of Ebola is already serious in the three countries and could be catastrophic if it becomes a more regional health crisis. The CDC said last month that unless efforts to curb the outbreak are ramped up significantly and quickly, the disease could infect up to 1.4 million people by mid-January in two nations, Sierra Leone and Liberia, alone. More

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Most members here at timebomb have known for a number of years that the world's economies were in dire straits.

We have also surmised that an outright depression was distinctly possible, as things continued to go downhill, at a slow, but sure pace.

The depression that we're presently in, more than likely will become increasingly worse, as this epidemic unfolds.
If we think about the economic impact of how this disease will affect every facet of our lives, the implications are huge.
Not only will all services, from police, fire, and of course our educational system be affected.......our very habits concerning our everyday living will change drastically. Shaking hands with a stranger will cease...for that matter, shaking hands with anybody will cease.....although the term I'm about to use is trite, it certainly fits our predicament.
Ebola vis a vis the world's economies is a GAME CHANGER.

 

[dogmanan]

WOW I love it so blame the markets failing around the world on ebola, ha ha it surly wouldn't have any thing to do with how they have run the markets over the last few years.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

o.t. Gold is up $22.00 this morning....while the dow futures are down about 40.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

WOW I love it so blame the markets failing around the world on ebola, ha ha it surly wouldn't have any thing to do with how they have run the markets over the last few years.

Ebola..............the perfect storm....

 

[Bob1313]

The desolation of these W. African economies will be the impetus that Obamabola will use to bring them all here to the U.S. as "economic refugees", it'll be a much easier sell as economic refugees instead of ebola refugees, just what the U.S. economy needs, millions of more non productive, government dependent mouths to feed.

He mentioned the "orphans" just a day or two ago so you know its coming.

God were completely screwed.

 

[rafter]

Ebola..............the perfect storm....

We have all known for a long long time that they would find something to blame the major crash of the economy on. We have speculated on what it would be for years. Now we know.

 

[Richard]

GDP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)



83 Sierra Leone 43,366,000
119 Equatorial Guinea 14,491,000
171 Liberia 1,491,000

nowhere near 32 billion

 

[JDSeese]

GDP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)



83 Sierra Leone 43,366,000
119 Equatorial Guinea 14,491,000
171 Liberia 1,491,000

nowhere near 32 billion

Um, I think you're not looking at the big picture.

Try reading the article.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

We have all known for a long long time that they would find something to blame the major crash of the economy on. We have speculated on what it would be for years. Now we know.

Only thing is, though, it might not be just a dodge.

If Ebola gets sufficiently cranked up, how many people are gonna say, maybe I should just stay home tonight? You get enough of those going, suddenly the bottom falls out of the retail market. Retail sales slow--particularly going into Black Friday and beyond--suddenly store profits drop. Store profits drop, stores close. A glut of empty real estate sits on the market, unable to sell. A whole lot of people lose jobs. Suddenly they're not buying either. The real estate people lose money because nothing will sell; who buys a storefront when there's no one to sell to? Now they're not buying. The businesses that stayed open suffer. They close.

It's a huge domino effect that all started from "maybe I'll just stay in tonight."

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Only thing is, though, it might not be just a dodge.

If Ebola gets sufficiently cranked up, how many people are gonna say, maybe I should just stay home tonight? You get enough of those going, suddenly the bottom falls out of the retail market. Retail sales slow--particularly going into Black Friday and beyond--suddenly store profits drop. Store profits drop, stores close. A glut of empty real estate sits on the market, unable to sell. A whole lot of people lose jobs. Suddenly they're not buying either. The real estate people lose money because nothing will sell; who buys a storefront when there's no one to sell to? Now they're not buying. The businesses that stayed open suffer. They close.

It's a huge domino effect that all started from "maybe I'll just stay in tonight."

Even IF the number of active cases are small, the mere fear of catching this disease will impact all the citizens of the affected country. When the flu season starts, then health professionals will not know if the patient has the flu, or ebola. The effects of this disease are not only physical (if you catch it), they are psychological, even if you never catch it. Just think of the thousands of school teachers that will never know exactly what their feverish students have.....
If I were describe what we're seeing in stark terms, I would call it a ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE

 

[Hacker]

Doc, I think the World Bank is understating the economic impact of Ebola. I anticipate Trillions of $'s impact.

This is gonna be huge !!

 

[Richard]

Um, I think you're not looking at the big picture.

Try reading the article.

if Ebola is confined to W Africa then it will be a disaster but not a 32 billion disaster, if it spreads en masse outside of W Africa then anything could happen

 

[babysteps]

if Ebola is confined to W Africa then it will be a disaster but not a 32 billion disaster, if it spreads en masse outside of W Africa then anything could happen

Which is, I believe, what the article is saying.

The economic impact of the Ebola epidemic could reach $32.6 billion by the end of next year if the disease ravaging Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone spreads to neighboring countries in West Africa, the World Bank Group said Wednesday.

 

[JDSeese]

And it has nothing to do with GDP.

The article is talking about the expenses involved with fighting this outbreak.

 

[Richard]

Which is, I believe, what the article is saying.

that's what I thought, the big picture may be bigger but that's what the article says

 

[Adino]

oh goody!

a scapegoat that's not bi-pedal!

 

[Richard]

And it has nothing to do with GDP.

The article is talking about the expenses involved with fighting this outbreak.

Probably but the article does not actually say that, also their economies will be trashed, if it does affect that many then I suspect that any attempt to fight the outbreak will be futile and could not be carried out logistically even with vast sums of money available, the resources aren't available

 

[cheyenneplateau]

Only thing is, though, it might not be just a dodge.

If Ebola gets sufficiently cranked up, how many people are gonna say, maybe I should just stay home tonight? You get enough of those going, suddenly the bottom falls out of the retail market. Retail sales slow--particularly going into Black Friday and beyond--suddenly store profits drop. Store profits drop, stores close. A glut of empty real estate sits on the market, unable to sell. A whole lot of people lose jobs. Suddenly they're not buying either. The real estate people lose money because nothing will sell; who buys a storefront when there's no one to sell to? Now they're not buying. The businesses that stayed open suffer. They close.

It's a huge domino effect that all started from "maybe I'll just stay in tonight."

BN, I SO AGREE with you on all but one point. Those "remote farms" and land are going to sell like wildfire.

 

[R.Tist]

Isn't this just the same as the only reason our dollar is still a viable medium of exchange is because the people have confidence in it?

We (not just America, or Canada, but the world) don't need an actual pandemic to do us in economically, the FEAR of one will do the job.

As another poster mentioned, people won't go out, won't go on vacation, will stay home from work on 'sick days' as often as they can, won't go to movies, peruse stores, or otherwise interact with anyone they don't have to. They'll stop spending.
They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending!

That means retail business will suffer, and banks will suffer, and the real estate market will dry up, and all businesses will suffer, and that's all it takes to bring a country or even the global economy to its knees - as I understand it.

Artie.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Isn't this just the same as the only reason our dollar is still a viable medium of exchange is because the people have confidence in it?

We (not just America, or Canada, but the world) don't need an actual pandemic to do us in economically, the FEAR of one will do the job.

As another poster mentioned, people won't go out, won't go on vacation, will stay home from work on 'sick days' as often as they can, won't go to movies, peruse stores, or otherwise interact with anyone they don't have to. They'll stop spending.
They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending!

That means retail business will suffer, and banks will suffer, and the real estate market will dry up, and all businesses will suffer, and that's all it takes to bring a country or even the global economy to its knees - as I understand it.

Artie.

There will be many unintended consequences. Here's a bit of news that I just picked up from Drudge.



http://www.myfoxny.com/story/26744552/plane-cleaners-strike

This strike happened on September 16th.......cleaners are afraid of contracting Ebola.

Here's a far out question that just popped up. Will affected Ebola patients who don't self report? Will they be regarded as criminals or worse, since these patients may be considered 'biological weapons of mass destruction? I'm trying to forecast into the future a bit, and what I see is a manifesto created by the government which would be written with Ebola and similar diseases in mind. In essence, we'd see a sort of Biological Patriot Act...which would more than likely be draconian in nature.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

https://twitter.com/rConflictNews/status/520206066840506369

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews

#BREAKING: #Ebola-hit Liberia cancels nationwide election: government: AFP

Mitchell שומרים Hackman Watch The Awakened Deepak Paul Schmidt K Connie Harrison

6:36 AM - 9 Oct 2014

Sonya M. Shannon ‏@SonyaMShannon 8m8 minutes ago

#BREAKING: #Ebola-hit Liberia cancels nationwide election: government: AFP @rConflictNews For Shame! people of LIBERIA deserve BETTER
Repl

Liberia cancels nationwide elections because of Ebola(This is real...just caught it a few minutes ago.)

Could it happen here?

Newsflash from Fox News(This is NOT REAL...JUST IMAGINARY)

Because of the Ebola pandemic the November elections here in CONUS will be cancelled due to ongoing health concerns.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

O.T.............Dow selling off as we speak...S&P down 30, Dow down 272....Nas getting pounded.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

 

[workerbee]

Dow has been bouncing up/down around 300.....

 

[JDSeese]

Probably but the article does not actually say that, also their economies will be trashed, if it does affect that many then I suspect that any attempt to fight the outbreak will be futile and could not be carried out logistically even with vast sums of money available, the resources aren't available

That's a very good point. Is it worth it?

 

[MtnGal]

Last night on a radio program that shall not be mentioned Stan Deyo said he got word from a trucker/trucking co that if Dallas gets bad they will not be delivering their cargo. I took it that the cargo was food for local groceries. He ask for any truckers/companies to verify if they've heard anything.

 

[Mama Ten Bears]

Only thing is, though, it might not be just a dodge.

If Ebola gets sufficiently cranked up, how many people are gonna say, maybe I should just stay home tonight? You get enough of those going, suddenly the bottom falls out of the retail market. Retail sales slow--particularly going into Black Friday and beyond--suddenly store profits drop.
It's a huge domino effect that all started from "maybe I'll just stay in tonight."

I'm at ground zero for American Ebola. I have already said I ain't going nowhere except work and school. I'm not the only one either.

 

[China Connection]

Ah, World War Three, World Economic Collapse, Incurable Raging viruses and depopulation all nicely planned and about to fall into top gear.

 

[Sacajawea]

There is enough fear and reality about countries not having the spare change to mount a large enough, comprehensive enough response to contain. Plain language: the world doesn't have enough money NOW.

The US pretends to have unlimited money (most of it borrowed); and in truth there is enough pork in the budget that a billion here or there won't cause a real hardship; right now that is. But lets project how long it will take for Europe and the US to have their own real outbreaks. Based on W. Africa, it took about 10 months to get bad enough to get people's attention.

In 10 months, how much will the US spend on Ukraine, Iraq, taking care of anyone walking across the border? How much money will be left then? IMO, the World Bank is only talking about one of the alligators nipping at the Western Financial System's buns. If there were only ONE, there's a better chance of absorbing a hit and being able to keep on going. How many other hits is that system taking?

Ebola>feeds market fears>rash or very large financial decision making>hits to businesses>layoffs>more dependents>more Ebola>more market losses>collapse of economy (and possibly government as well). It COULD get that bad and a lot faster than any of us want.

But we won't know for a while. Keep watching.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

BN, I SO AGREE with you on all but one point. Those "remote farms" and land are going to sell like wildfire.

Bear one thing in mind, cheyenne..."remote farms" and land are already selling at pretty chunky rates as it sits. Farmground is up around $1500 an acre in some places, and that's without house. Selling "like wildfire" here might be a bit much, but I think you might be right about rural land in general.

Still, that's going to leave the cities with a lot of empty ground as well. Be interesting if Ebola ends up thinning the herd not by killing, but by spreading the population density out a bit more.

 

[mbabulldog]

Bear one thing in mind, cheyenne..."remote farms" and land are already selling at pretty chunky rates as it sits. Farmground is up around $1500 an acre in some places, and that's without house. Selling "like wildfire" here might be a bit much, but I think you might be right about rural land in general.

Still, that's going to leave the cities with a lot of empty ground as well. Be interesting if Ebola ends up thinning the herd not by killing, but by spreading the population density out a bit more.

I wish I could find farmland at $1500/acre...

 

[mbabulldog]

Isn't this just the same as the only reason our dollar is still a viable medium of exchange is because the people have confidence in it?

We (not just America, or Canada, but the world) don't need an actual pandemic to do us in economically, the FEAR of one will do the job.

As another poster mentioned, people won't go out, won't go on vacation, will stay home from work on 'sick days' as often as they can, won't go to movies, peruse stores, or otherwise interact with anyone they don't have to. They'll stop spending.
They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending. They'll stop spending!

That means retail business will suffer, and banks will suffer, and the real estate market will dry up, and all businesses will suffer, and that's all it takes to bring a country or even the global economy to its knees - as I understand it.

Artie.

And just in time for the Christmas Shopping Season...

 

[Doomer Doug]

The US gross domestic product relies on consumer spending for about 70 percent of its total. Anything that caused consumer confidence to fall would mean a decline in consumer activity, both people and business. If Ebola caused people to sit at home, you would see a massive collapse in the service industry, restaurants, malls, movie theaters and the like.

Ebola will have a direct impact on West Africa. It will cause several specific issues, like a sharp increase in the price of chocolate for instance. Ebola will have an indirect impact as it relates to whether people decide to stay home and not spend money.

Assuming you end up with some kind of travel restrictions, even if you don't ban air travel from Africa, this will cause people to not want to risk flying. The airline industry is a huge one, with a large support base that would be damaged.

Yep, the other issue is food. West Africa is already seeing a collapse in available food as farmers decide to flee.

Ebola is going to have medical impacts, economic impacts, psychological impacts; political impacts.

The day a majority of the American people decide to either not go to work at all, skip a few days, or either reduce or eliminate ALL economic activity other than going to the grocery store will trigger a massive economic collapse in the USA. No consumer spending, or even reduced consumer spending equals economic decline of some degree or another.