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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JK08Aa02.html
Nov 8, 2008
Let the disappointment begin
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - For the millions around the world who supported the candidacy of United States president-elect Barack Obama, let the disappointment begin. Rhetoric fades and symbolism pales in the harsh light of familiarity. But the biggest culprit in this emerging, imminent disillusionment is simple reality.
The world's investment of hope in Obama will likely fare little better than shares or property investments in 2008. Items on the Obama agenda, often hidden in plain sight, are bound to disconcert many of his overseas fans. Much of the disappointment will be unavoidable.
For many foreigners (speaking from the American viewpoint) as well as many US voters, Obama's attractiveness lay in being someone other than George W Bush. John McCain was also not Bush but his policies seemed a lot closer to Bush's, especially in Iraq.
One choice only
McCain said he would stay in Iraq for 100 years if necessary while Obama pledged to end the war. But often there's only one decision that a president can make, regardless of party or beliefs. So McCain or Obama would likely withdraw forces as quickly as the military says it's feasible without endangering American lives, ensuring the collapse of the US-installed political system, reigniting civil war, or increasing Iranian influence. Whatever Obama's intention, given those parameters, the war won't end anytime soon. Obama's supporters at home and abroad will be disappointed.
Similarly, with the financial crisis, the broad consensus among economists and elected officials is that there are limited options, and they involve unwavering government support for Wall Street. We don't know what would have happened without the federal bailout package, but we have seen that it's taken more than a month for markets to be able to piece together a handful of trading sessions that simulate the good old dull days. Meanwhile, Main Street, the so-called real economy, is looking mighty vulnerable to further shocks.
Obama won kudos - and some say, the election - for taking a measured approach to the bailout package. He insisted on more taxpayer protections and Congressional oversight, but he didn't get out in front, was happy to be a follower, not a leader. He may have been doing the right thing and adhering to the "one president at a time" rule, or leaving a technical matter for experts. Or Obama may have been ducking a tough situation. We may learn more if he participates in the economic summit Bush has called for later this month.
Family ties
Expectations won't be met in the countries where Obama has family ties. Kenya, which declared Thursday a national holiday to celebrate Obama's victory, and Indonesia will find that US policy won't change much with the inauguration of an adopted son. Kenya's disappointment will spread to Africa, where Bush has offered unprecedented assistance to fight AIDS. Obama will be hard pressed to surpass or even match that generosity, particularly with the US deficit out of control.
Indonesia has the world's biggest Muslim population, and Obama's Muslim heritage through his Kenyan father has fascinated the Islamic world. As in the US, some believe he really is a Muslim. But they will be disappointed with the slow pace of US withdrawal from Iraq and the likely escalation of the war in Afghanistan. They may also be upset to see him attending Sunday church services in Washington rather than Friday prayers at the mosque.
Even where Obama does have new policy ideas and wants to implement them, there will be little immediate impact. Even when a president chooses to change America's position, he'll find the US government is an aircraft carrier, not a speed boat, and turning one is a long, difficult process. It takes a lot of effort and time for a behemoth to shift direction, even when it's change you can believe in.
Obama's actions, or lack of them, on the expectations of others may cause some disappointment outside America. But there are some items on the Obama agenda that will go forward and have real global impact. For the most part, the world won't like it.
Changed climate
Take climate change. Next month, the second United Nations global meeting to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol opens in Poznan, Poland. Obama has pledged to get serious about fighting global warming. Prospective members of his team will undoubtedly attend the December confab, and they will certainly strike a different tone from the Bush administration's truculent opposition to committing to carbon emission cuts. However, the inconvenient truth is that United States under president Obama will not join the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. No US president will sign an agreement that exempts three countries among the top five carbon emitters, and that will never change as long as the UN insists that exemption is non-negotiable.
But rejecting the UN regime won't be the end of the Obama administration's climate change policy. With US public opinion favoring action on global warming, the country in recession, and economic stimulus in the cards, big changes are possible. The outgoing Bush administration's two oil men at the top represent fossils of that industry's once firm grip on Washington. The US auto industry is in dire straits, open to any proposals that will keep the assembly lines moving. Expect the Obama administration to offer incentives and tax advantages for US produced initiatives to cut oil consumption and employ alternative energy and do it fast. In return, America will tackle the problems with the "yes, we can" approach that created the A-bomb and iPod.
America's economic competitors will face a double whammy. First, they'll find barriers to penetrating the world's biggest market that will encourage them to bring their own technology and production to the US. Second, they'll face competition, not just in the US, but globally from whatever these US companies develop. In this field and others, as finance regulation crimps opportunities to amass fortunes by manipulating numbers, America's creativity and intellect will be unleashed productively to the peril of rivals around the world. For rivals grown accustomed to a fat, happy, self-absorbed Uncle Sam - especially in Asia - this is the America their parents warned them about.
That will be even more true if Obama follows through on plans to ensure every American willing to commit to public service will be able to afford college. By just electing Obama after he was tagged an elitist by Hillary Clinton, of all people, and subsequent opponents explicitly rejected the anti-intellectualism of Bush and Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Americans seemed to have figured out that an editor of Harvard Law Review is better qualified for leadership than a reforming drunk or the mother of a pregnant teen due to marry a high school dropout.
Obama is about to take the most powerful position in the US. Some would say the second biggest job in the country belongs to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of California. They are examples, across two generations, of the America that attracts the best and brightest from the around the world.
Americans by choice
"A new dawn of American leadership is at hand," Obama said in his victory address on Tuesday night in Chicago, based on "the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope".
America under Bush was a country judged on its faults; Obama's America will be judged on its aspirations. It's a standard that America has struggled to fulfill, but one that few countries can dream of. Leaders around the world who supported Obama will find themselves pressed to answer why their citizens lack the rights and possibilities Americans enjoy. They'll need to find convincing answers while facing an America that's smarter, more optimistic, and more enthusiastic than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency.
An America that earns the world's respect is an America ready to lead the world. But is the world ready to follow? In Obama's victory ushering in a new America, there's an ancient lesson for the rest of the world: be careful what you wish for.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com), a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie. He followed the US presidential race for Asia Times Online as Campaign Outsider.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JK08Aa02.html
Nov 8, 2008
Let the disappointment begin
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - For the millions around the world who supported the candidacy of United States president-elect Barack Obama, let the disappointment begin. Rhetoric fades and symbolism pales in the harsh light of familiarity. But the biggest culprit in this emerging, imminent disillusionment is simple reality.
The world's investment of hope in Obama will likely fare little better than shares or property investments in 2008. Items on the Obama agenda, often hidden in plain sight, are bound to disconcert many of his overseas fans. Much of the disappointment will be unavoidable.
For many foreigners (speaking from the American viewpoint) as well as many US voters, Obama's attractiveness lay in being someone other than George W Bush. John McCain was also not Bush but his policies seemed a lot closer to Bush's, especially in Iraq.
One choice only
McCain said he would stay in Iraq for 100 years if necessary while Obama pledged to end the war. But often there's only one decision that a president can make, regardless of party or beliefs. So McCain or Obama would likely withdraw forces as quickly as the military says it's feasible without endangering American lives, ensuring the collapse of the US-installed political system, reigniting civil war, or increasing Iranian influence. Whatever Obama's intention, given those parameters, the war won't end anytime soon. Obama's supporters at home and abroad will be disappointed.
Similarly, with the financial crisis, the broad consensus among economists and elected officials is that there are limited options, and they involve unwavering government support for Wall Street. We don't know what would have happened without the federal bailout package, but we have seen that it's taken more than a month for markets to be able to piece together a handful of trading sessions that simulate the good old dull days. Meanwhile, Main Street, the so-called real economy, is looking mighty vulnerable to further shocks.
Obama won kudos - and some say, the election - for taking a measured approach to the bailout package. He insisted on more taxpayer protections and Congressional oversight, but he didn't get out in front, was happy to be a follower, not a leader. He may have been doing the right thing and adhering to the "one president at a time" rule, or leaving a technical matter for experts. Or Obama may have been ducking a tough situation. We may learn more if he participates in the economic summit Bush has called for later this month.
Family ties
Expectations won't be met in the countries where Obama has family ties. Kenya, which declared Thursday a national holiday to celebrate Obama's victory, and Indonesia will find that US policy won't change much with the inauguration of an adopted son. Kenya's disappointment will spread to Africa, where Bush has offered unprecedented assistance to fight AIDS. Obama will be hard pressed to surpass or even match that generosity, particularly with the US deficit out of control.
Indonesia has the world's biggest Muslim population, and Obama's Muslim heritage through his Kenyan father has fascinated the Islamic world. As in the US, some believe he really is a Muslim. But they will be disappointed with the slow pace of US withdrawal from Iraq and the likely escalation of the war in Afghanistan. They may also be upset to see him attending Sunday church services in Washington rather than Friday prayers at the mosque.
Even where Obama does have new policy ideas and wants to implement them, there will be little immediate impact. Even when a president chooses to change America's position, he'll find the US government is an aircraft carrier, not a speed boat, and turning one is a long, difficult process. It takes a lot of effort and time for a behemoth to shift direction, even when it's change you can believe in.
Obama's actions, or lack of them, on the expectations of others may cause some disappointment outside America. But there are some items on the Obama agenda that will go forward and have real global impact. For the most part, the world won't like it.
Changed climate
Take climate change. Next month, the second United Nations global meeting to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol opens in Poznan, Poland. Obama has pledged to get serious about fighting global warming. Prospective members of his team will undoubtedly attend the December confab, and they will certainly strike a different tone from the Bush administration's truculent opposition to committing to carbon emission cuts. However, the inconvenient truth is that United States under president Obama will not join the successor to the Kyoto Protocol. No US president will sign an agreement that exempts three countries among the top five carbon emitters, and that will never change as long as the UN insists that exemption is non-negotiable.
But rejecting the UN regime won't be the end of the Obama administration's climate change policy. With US public opinion favoring action on global warming, the country in recession, and economic stimulus in the cards, big changes are possible. The outgoing Bush administration's two oil men at the top represent fossils of that industry's once firm grip on Washington. The US auto industry is in dire straits, open to any proposals that will keep the assembly lines moving. Expect the Obama administration to offer incentives and tax advantages for US produced initiatives to cut oil consumption and employ alternative energy and do it fast. In return, America will tackle the problems with the "yes, we can" approach that created the A-bomb and iPod.
America's economic competitors will face a double whammy. First, they'll find barriers to penetrating the world's biggest market that will encourage them to bring their own technology and production to the US. Second, they'll face competition, not just in the US, but globally from whatever these US companies develop. In this field and others, as finance regulation crimps opportunities to amass fortunes by manipulating numbers, America's creativity and intellect will be unleashed productively to the peril of rivals around the world. For rivals grown accustomed to a fat, happy, self-absorbed Uncle Sam - especially in Asia - this is the America their parents warned them about.
That will be even more true if Obama follows through on plans to ensure every American willing to commit to public service will be able to afford college. By just electing Obama after he was tagged an elitist by Hillary Clinton, of all people, and subsequent opponents explicitly rejected the anti-intellectualism of Bush and Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, Americans seemed to have figured out that an editor of Harvard Law Review is better qualified for leadership than a reforming drunk or the mother of a pregnant teen due to marry a high school dropout.
Obama is about to take the most powerful position in the US. Some would say the second biggest job in the country belongs to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of California. They are examples, across two generations, of the America that attracts the best and brightest from the around the world.
Americans by choice
"A new dawn of American leadership is at hand," Obama said in his victory address on Tuesday night in Chicago, based on "the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope".
America under Bush was a country judged on its faults; Obama's America will be judged on its aspirations. It's a standard that America has struggled to fulfill, but one that few countries can dream of. Leaders around the world who supported Obama will find themselves pressed to answer why their citizens lack the rights and possibilities Americans enjoy. They'll need to find convincing answers while facing an America that's smarter, more optimistic, and more enthusiastic than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency.
An America that earns the world's respect is an America ready to lead the world. But is the world ready to follow? In Obama's victory ushering in a new America, there's an ancient lesson for the rest of the world: be careful what you wish for.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com), a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal, high finance and cheap lingerie. He followed the US presidential race for Asia Times Online as Campaign Outsider.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
