[ECON] VERY IMPORTANT - Frank Veneroso - The Commodity Case For Gold
- Thread starter Maher
- Start date
Anne in TN
Deceased
I am very interested in all this but I must admit that I lost it when the article referred to going short on gold and going long. I have probably come across those terms before but never knew really what they ment. The article was a bit too long and too advanced for me. All I want to know is, is the price of gold going to go up or down? What happens when these central banks finally run out of gold?
Anne
(this is a test edit by Dennis, "posing" as Anne.)
[ 05-31-2001: Message edited by: Anne the Happy Doomer ]
Anne
(this is a test edit by Dennis, "posing" as Anne.)
[ 05-31-2001: Message edited by: Anne the Happy Doomer ]
Anne in TN
Deceased
Well, I have another question that I tried to put in my above post but when I hit the edit button, it told me only moderators were allowed to provide this function. I had already edited my post once for spelling if that makes any difference which it must.
Here is my question: "when do we expect the central banks to run out of gold?"
Anne
Here is my question: "when do we expect the central banks to run out of gold?"
Anne
Anne, we believe the price of gold will go up. Any time you read from pro-gold forums, you will get the same message. At least right now. I am sure that at some pt they will say enough is enough, gold must go down!
Maher, I'm tired of waiting. When will "soon" come?
Just kidding! I don't have enuf yet!
Maher, I'm tired of waiting. When will "soon" come?
Just kidding! I don't have enuf yet!
Anne in TN
Deceased
Reliance,
Gold went down $4.00 this past Wednesday and then down another $8.00 yesterday (Thursday). I think now is as good a time as ever to buy. Maher, what do you think?
Anne
Gold went down $4.00 this past Wednesday and then down another $8.00 yesterday (Thursday). I think now is as good a time as ever to buy. Maher, what do you think?
Anne
Rmiller95747
Contributing Member
The timing for Gold's inevitable rise to the stratosphere has been orchestrated to occur simultaneously with the arrival of the Great Pumpkin.
This information comes straight from famous financial wizard, Linus van Pelt, whose track record is known to us all!
;-)
This information comes straight from famous financial wizard, Linus van Pelt, whose track record is known to us all!
;-)
Lee P. Lapin
Inactive
Anne,
The price of gold will continue to go up AND down, as it has throughout history. Not trying to be a smarta$$, just answering the question you asked. What I think you meant was, 'will the price of gold go up in the near term?' And I think the answer to that has to be an unqualified 'yes'-- unless TPTB have dug out some of the old books on alchemy and figured out how to turn lead into gold. Now I cannot tell you WHEN the real upswing will begin, or HOW HIGH the price will go when it starts. But I consider it a historical inevitability that the price of gold will go up a good deal before some sort of equilibrium is restored to the worlds' financial systems. Unless, of course, TPTB actually succeed in fooling ALL of the people ALL of the time. If that is the case, and something like a global 'currency' evolves before the gold market erupts, all bets are off.
'Going short' and 'going long' are trading terms, usually referring to the futures market. See http://www.vuonline.com/202commodity/section6.htm for an explanation of shorting that will help you understand both ends of this sort of trade.
Finally, i don't think the central banks will ever run completely out of gold, because of gold's acceptance as a true reserve asset. I think there will be a vociferous demand for this asset to stay in place once it becomes clear to the public in the various countries involved just how large these manipulations actually are. That fight is just now beginning, and as there have been large leases and sales of CB gold over the past few years there is beginning to be some criticism of the CBs regarding this activity. This CB activity, in selling and leasing gold, has been one of the major factors in keeping the price of gold depressed to levels lower than the cost of production in many mines.
Can they keep it up? I'm betting they can't.
Lee
The price of gold will continue to go up AND down, as it has throughout history. Not trying to be a smarta$$, just answering the question you asked. What I think you meant was, 'will the price of gold go up in the near term?' And I think the answer to that has to be an unqualified 'yes'-- unless TPTB have dug out some of the old books on alchemy and figured out how to turn lead into gold. Now I cannot tell you WHEN the real upswing will begin, or HOW HIGH the price will go when it starts. But I consider it a historical inevitability that the price of gold will go up a good deal before some sort of equilibrium is restored to the worlds' financial systems. Unless, of course, TPTB actually succeed in fooling ALL of the people ALL of the time. If that is the case, and something like a global 'currency' evolves before the gold market erupts, all bets are off.
'Going short' and 'going long' are trading terms, usually referring to the futures market. See http://www.vuonline.com/202commodity/section6.htm for an explanation of shorting that will help you understand both ends of this sort of trade.
Finally, i don't think the central banks will ever run completely out of gold, because of gold's acceptance as a true reserve asset. I think there will be a vociferous demand for this asset to stay in place once it becomes clear to the public in the various countries involved just how large these manipulations actually are. That fight is just now beginning, and as there have been large leases and sales of CB gold over the past few years there is beginning to be some criticism of the CBs regarding this activity. This CB activity, in selling and leasing gold, has been one of the major factors in keeping the price of gold depressed to levels lower than the cost of production in many mines.
Can they keep it up? I'm betting they can't.
Lee
Lee P. Lapin
Inactive
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/howe053101.html
The Last Train Out
Because Rick made the last train out of Paris, he lived to fight another day, and in the interim provided grist for a great movie, Casablanca. Those were years when prescient men and women all over Europe were running for the proverbial last train out, sometimes just a few steps ahead of the Gestapo. Some made it, as in The Sound of Music. Some did not, among them Natalie Jastram Henry in Herman Wouk's The Winds of War. Some chose to stay in place and await their fate. But most only dimly understood, if at all, the historic currents about to redirect their lives. Only later did they appreciate that of all the trains then chugging over the Continent, some were vehicles of escape to freedom and life while others bore their passengers to unbelievable depravity and death.
It is human nature to think that tomorrow will be much like today, that history progresses in a more or less linear fashion. Great discontinuities boggle the mind. My friend Adam Hamilton has just written a piece, Gold Prepares to Erupt, comparing the current monetary and investment climate to ancient Pompeii just before its immolation by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Adam concludes: "We are now observing initial pressure-blowoff warning signs in gold, and the great financial lessons of history coupled with the immutable laws of free-market economics ensure gold is preparing for a spectacular price eruption."
Market or volcanic eruptions are notoriously difficult to predict. The forces that lead to them, however, are somewhat easier to observe. Anyone interested in gold who has not yet read Frank Veneroso's presentation at the GATA conference in Durban on May 10, 2001, should do so at once. Gold speaks primarily through flows of physical metal, gold prices in various world markets, lease rates, and general conditions in the gold mining industry. Frank is almost certainly the world's leading authority on gold flows, including the huge amount of gold that central banks have recklessly loaned out over the past decade and that now represents an alarmingly large short physical position overhanging the world financial system.
In recent months my commentaries have been limited by the demands of my litigation against the gold price fixing cabal. Last Friday government lawyers for Paul O'Neill, Secretary of the Treasury, and Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, dropped on me some weekend reading consisting of reply briefs they want to file in response to the opposition that I filed to their motions to dismiss. I understand that the Bank for International Settlements may also move for leave to file a reply brief. These reply briefs, which are not allowed as of right, come more than five weeks after I filed my opposition. In the appellate courts, reply briefs that are allowed as of right must usually be filed within two weeks of the principal brief to which they respond. So I ask myself: What has suddenly prompted this urge to file reply briefs? Is it just the government moving at its typical glacial pace, or is something else going on?
On Saturday, May 26, GATA chairman Bill Murphy received a second letter from Lawrence B. Lindsay, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and generally regarded as President Bush's top economic adviser. While Bill has not revealed publicly the exact contents of the letter, he has revealed its date: May 30, 2001. A postdated letter from the White House strikes me as a bit unusual.
These strange emanations from Washington may be nothing more than government doing what it does best: chasing its own tail. But they could reflect some more rational purpose that cannot yet be fully discerned. Over the past few weeks, amidst talk of a Gold Syndicate taking on the Gold Cabal, the gold market has displayed a decidedly different and more bullish tone. Rumor has it that the Gold Syndicate includes the Chinese, Middle Eastern interests and George Soros, who apparently plans to make another billion dollars at the expense of the Bank of England. Certainly there has been increased media coverage of GATA, much but not all of it generated by the conference in Durban. Lease rates have displayed unusual volatility and inversions. The possibility of a delivery squeeze on the COMEX June gold contract looms ever larger.
Given the fundamentals of the current international financial picture, gold looks ready to resume its historic role as the financial asset of last resort, the only financial asset that is not another's liability. All these recent straws in the wind sound like the gold train blowing its whistle and preparing to leave the station. When it does, the dollar-dominated financial world we have come to assume will change forever. Its great hero, Alan Greenspan, will take his rightful place in history alongside John Law. Don't miss the gold train. It is one train that even my FJ1200 superbike can't catch.
Reg Howe
row@ix.netcom.com http://www.goldensextant.com
May 31, 2001
The Last Train Out
Because Rick made the last train out of Paris, he lived to fight another day, and in the interim provided grist for a great movie, Casablanca. Those were years when prescient men and women all over Europe were running for the proverbial last train out, sometimes just a few steps ahead of the Gestapo. Some made it, as in The Sound of Music. Some did not, among them Natalie Jastram Henry in Herman Wouk's The Winds of War. Some chose to stay in place and await their fate. But most only dimly understood, if at all, the historic currents about to redirect their lives. Only later did they appreciate that of all the trains then chugging over the Continent, some were vehicles of escape to freedom and life while others bore their passengers to unbelievable depravity and death.
It is human nature to think that tomorrow will be much like today, that history progresses in a more or less linear fashion. Great discontinuities boggle the mind. My friend Adam Hamilton has just written a piece, Gold Prepares to Erupt, comparing the current monetary and investment climate to ancient Pompeii just before its immolation by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Adam concludes: "We are now observing initial pressure-blowoff warning signs in gold, and the great financial lessons of history coupled with the immutable laws of free-market economics ensure gold is preparing for a spectacular price eruption."
Market or volcanic eruptions are notoriously difficult to predict. The forces that lead to them, however, are somewhat easier to observe. Anyone interested in gold who has not yet read Frank Veneroso's presentation at the GATA conference in Durban on May 10, 2001, should do so at once. Gold speaks primarily through flows of physical metal, gold prices in various world markets, lease rates, and general conditions in the gold mining industry. Frank is almost certainly the world's leading authority on gold flows, including the huge amount of gold that central banks have recklessly loaned out over the past decade and that now represents an alarmingly large short physical position overhanging the world financial system.
In recent months my commentaries have been limited by the demands of my litigation against the gold price fixing cabal. Last Friday government lawyers for Paul O'Neill, Secretary of the Treasury, and Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, dropped on me some weekend reading consisting of reply briefs they want to file in response to the opposition that I filed to their motions to dismiss. I understand that the Bank for International Settlements may also move for leave to file a reply brief. These reply briefs, which are not allowed as of right, come more than five weeks after I filed my opposition. In the appellate courts, reply briefs that are allowed as of right must usually be filed within two weeks of the principal brief to which they respond. So I ask myself: What has suddenly prompted this urge to file reply briefs? Is it just the government moving at its typical glacial pace, or is something else going on?
On Saturday, May 26, GATA chairman Bill Murphy received a second letter from Lawrence B. Lindsay, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and generally regarded as President Bush's top economic adviser. While Bill has not revealed publicly the exact contents of the letter, he has revealed its date: May 30, 2001. A postdated letter from the White House strikes me as a bit unusual.
These strange emanations from Washington may be nothing more than government doing what it does best: chasing its own tail. But they could reflect some more rational purpose that cannot yet be fully discerned. Over the past few weeks, amidst talk of a Gold Syndicate taking on the Gold Cabal, the gold market has displayed a decidedly different and more bullish tone. Rumor has it that the Gold Syndicate includes the Chinese, Middle Eastern interests and George Soros, who apparently plans to make another billion dollars at the expense of the Bank of England. Certainly there has been increased media coverage of GATA, much but not all of it generated by the conference in Durban. Lease rates have displayed unusual volatility and inversions. The possibility of a delivery squeeze on the COMEX June gold contract looms ever larger.
Given the fundamentals of the current international financial picture, gold looks ready to resume its historic role as the financial asset of last resort, the only financial asset that is not another's liability. All these recent straws in the wind sound like the gold train blowing its whistle and preparing to leave the station. When it does, the dollar-dominated financial world we have come to assume will change forever. Its great hero, Alan Greenspan, will take his rightful place in history alongside John Law. Don't miss the gold train. It is one train that even my FJ1200 superbike can't catch.
Reg Howe
row@ix.netcom.com http://www.goldensextant.com
May 31, 2001
