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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E4ED3F-15D4-490E-949E-7C76347014DE}&dist=hppr
Democrats May Not Fair So Well in November
Last update: 12:28 p.m. EDT July 31, 2008
WASHINGTON, July 31, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- While Gallup and other polls continue to show Barack Obama with a slight lead over John McCain, the extremely likely voters at U4prez.com don't appear to be so enthusiastic. The bigger news is that the perceived huge gains in congress for the Democrats are clearly in danger of becoming much smaller gains, and could turn in to losses of a few seats. The issue is of course oil.
It turns out that indeed all politics is local, and it doesn't get any more local than your own home. The Democratic Party line to date has been, "We can't drill our way out of high gas prices." But that notion seems to be falling on deaf ears.
Independents are clearly starting to lean Republican, with several candidates on the site specifically mentioning Mitch McConnell in Kentucky as their likely choice as just one example. If you dive deeper in to the discussion on oil prices we find that Independents favor drilling in their comments by a 4 to 1 margin. Most disconcerting for the Democrats has to be the number of registered Democrats and self described liberals who are now in favor of off shore drilling and opening Anwr to more exploration.
So where do we stand now?
If gas prices stay high, a few things are now becoming certain.
-- If the trend continues it's clear that Obama isn't going to win in a landslide, and would probably lose the election.
-- Extremely likely voters are more than disapproving of Congress right now. As we get closer to the election, the higher the price of oil, the better for Republicans.
-- On the flip side, any Democrat who favors domestic oil exploration, is probably a lock to win.
-- If the discussion stays focused on high gas prices, Republicans could actually pick up seats in the House, but that is a stretch.
-- The recent easing in gas prices hasn't stalled the conversation much and may have actually made it more of a topic. The comment we've heard most over the last few days is, "I can't believe I'd ever think $3.70 gas was cheap."
What must the Democrats do to win?
Three things could allow the Democrats to keep their momentum, but according to our extremely likely voters, they are going to need to do all three to have a chance.
-- Embrace clean coal exploration and exploitation
-- Embrace Nuclear power (and quickly)
-- And drill in the Gulf of Mexico. As the knowledge that China and Cuba intend to drill, it becomes imperative in most voters mind that the United States must drill as well
Our prediction
Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.
-- Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.
-- The House will see very modest gains for the Democrats.
-- In the Senate Democrats pick up one or two seats.
If oil prices stabilize, or reverse trend and go higher, all bets are off, and Republicans could easily pick up a hand full of seats in the House.
The lesson for both parties is that this is quickly becoming a one issue election.
All politics are indeed local.
http://www.u4prez.com
Full story:
http://tinyurl.com/5qdhtw
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E4ED3F-15D4-490E-949E-7C76347014DE}&dist=hppr
Democrats May Not Fair So Well in November
Last update: 12:28 p.m. EDT July 31, 2008
WASHINGTON, July 31, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- While Gallup and other polls continue to show Barack Obama with a slight lead over John McCain, the extremely likely voters at U4prez.com don't appear to be so enthusiastic. The bigger news is that the perceived huge gains in congress for the Democrats are clearly in danger of becoming much smaller gains, and could turn in to losses of a few seats. The issue is of course oil.
It turns out that indeed all politics is local, and it doesn't get any more local than your own home. The Democratic Party line to date has been, "We can't drill our way out of high gas prices." But that notion seems to be falling on deaf ears.
Independents are clearly starting to lean Republican, with several candidates on the site specifically mentioning Mitch McConnell in Kentucky as their likely choice as just one example. If you dive deeper in to the discussion on oil prices we find that Independents favor drilling in their comments by a 4 to 1 margin. Most disconcerting for the Democrats has to be the number of registered Democrats and self described liberals who are now in favor of off shore drilling and opening Anwr to more exploration.
So where do we stand now?
If gas prices stay high, a few things are now becoming certain.
-- If the trend continues it's clear that Obama isn't going to win in a landslide, and would probably lose the election.
-- Extremely likely voters are more than disapproving of Congress right now. As we get closer to the election, the higher the price of oil, the better for Republicans.
-- On the flip side, any Democrat who favors domestic oil exploration, is probably a lock to win.
-- If the discussion stays focused on high gas prices, Republicans could actually pick up seats in the House, but that is a stretch.
-- The recent easing in gas prices hasn't stalled the conversation much and may have actually made it more of a topic. The comment we've heard most over the last few days is, "I can't believe I'd ever think $3.70 gas was cheap."
What must the Democrats do to win?
Three things could allow the Democrats to keep their momentum, but according to our extremely likely voters, they are going to need to do all three to have a chance.
-- Embrace clean coal exploration and exploitation
-- Embrace Nuclear power (and quickly)
-- And drill in the Gulf of Mexico. As the knowledge that China and Cuba intend to drill, it becomes imperative in most voters mind that the United States must drill as well
Our prediction
Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.
-- Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.
-- The House will see very modest gains for the Democrats.
-- In the Senate Democrats pick up one or two seats.
If oil prices stabilize, or reverse trend and go higher, all bets are off, and Republicans could easily pick up a hand full of seats in the House.
The lesson for both parties is that this is quickly becoming a one issue election.
All politics are indeed local.
http://www.u4prez.com
Full story:
http://tinyurl.com/5qdhtw