Democrats May Not Fair So Well in November

[Fisher]

Fair use
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E4ED3F-15D4-490E-949E-7C76347014DE}&dist=hppr

Democrats May Not Fair So Well in November
Last update: 12:28 p.m. EDT July 31, 2008

WASHINGTON, July 31, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- While Gallup and other polls continue to show Barack Obama with a slight lead over John McCain, the extremely likely voters at U4prez.com don't appear to be so enthusiastic. The bigger news is that the perceived huge gains in congress for the Democrats are clearly in danger of becoming much smaller gains, and could turn in to losses of a few seats. The issue is of course oil.

It turns out that indeed all politics is local, and it doesn't get any more local than your own home. The Democratic Party line to date has been, "We can't drill our way out of high gas prices." But that notion seems to be falling on deaf ears.

Independents are clearly starting to lean Republican, with several candidates on the site specifically mentioning Mitch McConnell in Kentucky as their likely choice as just one example. If you dive deeper in to the discussion on oil prices we find that Independents favor drilling in their comments by a 4 to 1 margin. Most disconcerting for the Democrats has to be the number of registered Democrats and self described liberals who are now in favor of off shore drilling and opening Anwr to more exploration.

So where do we stand now?

If gas prices stay high, a few things are now becoming certain.

-- If the trend continues it's clear that Obama isn't going to win in a landslide, and would probably lose the election.

-- Extremely likely voters are more than disapproving of Congress right now. As we get closer to the election, the higher the price of oil, the better for Republicans.

-- On the flip side, any Democrat who favors domestic oil exploration, is probably a lock to win.

-- If the discussion stays focused on high gas prices, Republicans could actually pick up seats in the House, but that is a stretch.

-- The recent easing in gas prices hasn't stalled the conversation much and may have actually made it more of a topic. The comment we've heard most over the last few days is, "I can't believe I'd ever think $3.70 gas was cheap."

What must the Democrats do to win?

Three things could allow the Democrats to keep their momentum, but according to our extremely likely voters, they are going to need to do all three to have a chance.

-- Embrace clean coal exploration and exploitation

-- Embrace Nuclear power (and quickly)

-- And drill in the Gulf of Mexico. As the knowledge that China and Cuba intend to drill, it becomes imperative in most voters mind that the United States must drill as well

Our prediction

Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.

-- Obama will lose by somewhere between 4 and 7 percent in November.

-- The House will see very modest gains for the Democrats.

-- In the Senate Democrats pick up one or two seats.

If oil prices stabilize, or reverse trend and go higher, all bets are off, and Republicans could easily pick up a hand full of seats in the House.
The lesson for both parties is that this is quickly becoming a one issue election.

All politics are indeed local.

http://www.u4prez.com

Full story:
http://tinyurl.com/5qdhtw

 

[Richard]

Maybe the Repubs will manipulate the oil price down for a while, if they can

what Mr TanMan lose, never

 

[BigBadBossyDog]

I can't put any credence in an article that has a misspelled word in the title.

 

[4bears]

Spelling?

I can't put any credence in an article that has a misspelled word in the title.

It's spelled correctly, just a homonym instead of the correct word.

.

 

[Delta]

Maybe the Repubs will manipulate the oil price down for a while, if they can

High prices are a greater threat to the party that is preceived as most resistant to new production, or to a lesser extent to the party that caused the shortage. Seems to me that would be the democrats. So, I'd think if politicans/government can manipulate prices, the republicans would be trying to keep them high through November.

 

[Worrier King]

The indoctrinated urban masses will swing the election to Obama and the Dems in a big way. They now have the numbers to offset heartland "red state" values, not that the republicans represent those anymore.

Generally elections are about letting one party screw things up, then blaming them while they have no accountability or responsibility. Then the voting rubes vote in the other party to hose things up. This process is repeated this for decades as problems are perpetuated.

It's the Repubs turn to sit back and criticize the Dems.

 

[NoPlugsNM]

I really get a kick out of these poll predictions, etc. They make the assumption that we have only two parties - dem and repub. While their polls only look at the two parties, they fail to consider the mindset of the voter in the booth.

WHAT IF

When the average Joe gets into the booth they have thoughts about Obama's inexperience, the blatent lies and word manipulations, his life's background, etc

AND

They also look at McCain and his ties to MORE of the same, continued war in the ME, possibly expansion into other countries, etc

NO real solutions out of either candidate, just the normal babble and political hype, continued disasterous policies that are affecting them to the bone and core of their very existance. Maybe many see a total collapse as the enevitable, so what's the use trying to vote for the lesser of the evils???

SO

What if they find themselves now pondering how it is that they can't vote for either due to all this stuff and then they just pull the lever for REAL CHANGE and vote for a third party candidate? We saw that happen in Minnesota a few years back, no one thought they would have that 3rd party candidate get elected, they saw their vote as a measurement of disgust, distrust, etc regarding the two parties from the citizen viewpoint. They also take on the mindset that says NO to incumbants, no to anything that would be more of the same that is just a different colored suit spewing BS that goes nowhere other than into the coffers of their own investments, of big corporations, etc.

This coming election COULD BE a true turning point IF the citizens see their vote as something important and want change from status quo. IF they, for just one flickering moment, loose their fear of the unknown, vote with their current financial and family matters in mind, find that little rebel that dwels within and say NO MORE.

I am voting 3rd party, if enough people do the same in every aspect whether it be the president, congressman, senator, local levels, etc - we could see a whole new type of gov begin to take shape - one that IS for the people. Then the first order of business is to put term limits on every electable and appointable positions within the entire system so that we put an end to the good old boys controls and furthering of the stagnation that impeeds our country and our citizens from furthering and living the freedoms and dreams of our forefathers.

While this seems like I'm dreaming and naieve, it does have a tone and rings out throughout our populations sentiments. Lets hope it could become contageous, let's hope that the 3rd party finds a way to broadcast this type of message to the voting population.

NP

 

[RobinYyes]

I really get a kick out of these poll predictions, etc. They make the assumption that we have only two parties - dem and repub. While their polls only look at the two parties, they fail to consider the mindset of the voter in the booth.

WHAT IF

When the average Joe gets into the booth they have thoughts about Obama's inexperience, the blatent lies and word manipulations, his life's background, etc

AND

They also look at McCain and his ties to MORE of the same, continued war in the ME, possibly expansion into other countries, etc

NO real solutions out of either candidate, just the normal babble and political hype, continued disasterous policies that are affecting them to the bone and core of their very existance. Maybe many see a total collapse as the enevitable, so what's the use trying to vote for the lesser of the evils???

SO

What if they find themselves now pondering how it is that they can't vote for either due to all this stuff and then they just pull the lever for REAL CHANGE and vote for a third party candidate? We saw that happen in Minnesota a few years back, no one thought they would have that 3rd party candidate get elected, they saw their vote as a measurement of disgust, distrust, etc regarding the two parties from the citizen viewpoint. They also take on the mindset that says NO to incumbants, no to anything that would be more of the same that is just a different colored suit spewing BS that goes nowhere other than into the coffers of their own investments, of big corporations, etc.

This coming election COULD BE a true turning point IF the citizens see their vote as something important and want change from status quo. IF they, for just one flickering moment, loose their fear of the unknown, vote with their current financial and family matters in mind, find that little rebel that dwels within and say NO MORE.

I am voting 3rd party, if enough people do the same in every aspect whether it be the president, congressman, senator, local levels, etc - we could see a whole new type of gov begin to take shape - one that IS for the people. Then the first order of business is to put term limits on every electable and appointable positions within the entire system so that we put an end to the good old boys controls and furthering of the stagnation that impeeds our country and our citizens from furthering and living the freedoms and dreams of our forefathers.

While this seems like I'm dreaming and naieve, it does have a tone and rings out throughout our populations sentiments. Lets hope it could become contageous, let's hope that the 3rd party finds a way to broadcast this type of message to the voting population.

NP

What if a pig had wings and could fly?

Just about as much of a chance.