WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

[jward]

foxnews.com
China sends several warplanes, navy ships toward Taiwan after U.S.-China talks
Andrea Vacchiano
~4 minutes


Taiwan's defense ministry announced on Saturday that over 30 Chinese warplanes were headed toward its country, in addition to navy ships.

Thirty-three aircraft were sent by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army from 6 a.m. Friday to 6 a.m. Saturday, officials said. The aircraft included SU-30 fighters.

Six Chinese navy vessels were also headed to Taiwan, and 13 of China's warplanes crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait. According to the Associated Press, Taiwanese officials are currently monitoring the situation.

Saturday's development happened shortly after Senior U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi agreed to meet in Bangkok. Sullivan announced the end of the talks on X Saturday evening.

US AND IRAQ TO DISCUSS FUTURE MILITARY PRESENCE IN COMING WEEKS: PENTAGON OFFICIAL
USS Chung-Hoon crossed by Chinese warship

The USS Chung-Hoon observed a Chinese navy ship conduct what it called an "unsafe" Chinese maneuver in the Taiwan Strait, June 3, 2023. The Chinese navy ship cut sharply across the path of the American destroyer, forcing the U.S. ship to slow down to avoid a collision. (Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Andre T. Richard/U.S. Navy via AP)

"Just finished two days of meetings with Director Wang Yi in Bangkok to follow up on the Woodside Summit between President Biden and President Xi last November," the post read, which included a photo of Sullivan and Wang shaking hands.

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said that Sullivan and Wang's meeting "continues the commitment by both sides…to maintain strategic communication and responsibly manage the relationship."

On Thursday, the Chinese government called out the U.S. Navy for sailing a warship through the Taiwan Strait, accusing the U.S. of causing "trouble and provocation on China's doorstep."

SPACE WARFARE: US, CHINA, AND RUSSIA ARE GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT FRONTIER OF ARMED CONFLICT
An aircraft

A Taiwanese air force Mirage 2000 fighter jet is seen on final approach for landing at an air force base in Hsinchu, northern Taiwan. (Jameson Wu/AFP via Getty Images/File)

On Jan. 17, the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan said in an English-language press release that "18 sorties of various CCP primary and auxiliary aircraft" had been detected. Eleven of the sorties crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

"The Armed Forces adopted combined intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance measures to closely monitor the situation, and dispatched mission aircraft, warships, and shore-based missile systems to respond appropriately," the statement read.


BidenBiden and Xi stand in front of the Chinese and US flags

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Biden. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque/File)

"The MND emphasized that the security and prosperity of the Taiwan Strait is a matter of concern of global development and stability, so it is an obligation and responsibility for all parties in the region to take up and shoulder collectively," the defense ministry added. "The Armed Forces will continue to strengthen its self-defense capabilities to cope with regional threats based on enemy threats and self-defense needs."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

China sends several warplanes, navy ships toward Taiwan after U.S.-China talks

The Chinese military sent 33 aircraft toward Taiwan between Friday and Saturday, the Taiwanese defense ministry says. Thirteen of the warplanes crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait.

www.foxnews.com

 

[jward]

Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones

China likely to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term,” said the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
We could be seeing that now. 10 things you may have missed (as always, from accounts to follow)

 

[jward]

Theresa Fallon
@TheresaAFallon
China Deploys Multiple Warships Around Self-Claimed ADIZ
"Some observers are warning that China will have its warships, which are deployed around the clock, & fighters work together & increase its military activities.
“It’s intended to block the SDF & US military aircraft [from entering the airspace] in the event of contingencies in the Taiwan Strait.”
via Yomiuri

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1751722125528891601

View: https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1751722125528891601?s=20

 

[jward]

US Marines rush wonky amphibious vehicles to the Pacific​

Gabriel Honrada​

---

The US Marine Corps (USMC) is set to deploy its advanced Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) to the Pacific despite questions about its readiness, maintenance and operation amid recent restrictions on surf-based use of the platform.
The ACV deployment, expected in or around March, aims to fill a looming amphibious warfare ship shortage amid rising tensions with China over Taiwan.

Defense News reported the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit will deploy with the ACVs aboard the US Navy’s Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) in phases, with the amphibious transport dock Somerset heading to the Pacific in the coming days for a six-month scheduled deployment.
The Defense News report says that the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and the dock landing ship USS Harpers Ferry will deploy about two months later due to ship readiness and maintenance challenges.

The ACV is slated to replace the USMC’s aging Amphibious Assault Vehicles (AAV), which have been in service since the 1970s. Defense News mentions that the eight-wheeled ACV can emerge from a ship, transit waves and then roll onto shore, allowing the military’s amphibious force to conduct amphibious operations.
However, ACV operations have been restricted for nearly 18 months after one rolled over in the water during training exercises in October 2022, prompting the USMC to halt nearly all surf-based operations, Defense News reports.
The ACV has also faced challenges on land, including a December 2023 rollover that killed a Marine aboard at a California USMC base.

The USMC has attributed the mishaps to training shortfalls and said it is on the process of recertifying vehicle operators and maintainers. But even the operators who have been recertified are not yet authorized to transit the surf zone with embarked troops or when the average height of the tallest waves is four feet or higher, Defense News reports.
A July 2020 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report mentions that the USMC’s AAVs have become increasingly challenging to operate, maintain and sustain. The report notes that even as the USMC’s AAVs have been upgraded over the years, they have capability shortfalls in land and water mobility, protection and network capability.

The CRS report also says that the AAV’s two-mile ship-to-shore range is viewed as a survivability issue for the vehicle and naval amphibious forces. Amphibious operations are considered among the most complex military operations, requiring planning across multiple domains amid significant operational challenges.
In a 2018 Marine Corps University Journal article, Steven Yeadon mentions that anti-ship missiles and tactical aircraft, submarines, mines, air defenses and opposing forces ashore pose significant challenges to modern amphibious operations.
Yeadon notes that while ARGs have several options for missile defense, potential adversaries can detect the force at over-the-horizon (OTH) ranges. Even though ARGs have sufficient missile defenses, Yeadon says, they become less effective as the force gets closer to shore as adversaries can deploy more missiles and the reaction time against these threats decreases.

Colin Smith and Stephen Webber mention in an October 2023 RAND think tank report that connectors such as AAVs are susceptible to multiple threats and vulnerable if engaged, noting that AAVs are exceptionally slow and must be launched close to shore.
While the ACV aims to address the AAV’s shortcomings, a March 2023 CRS report raises concerns about the ACV’s survivability against anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), noting for example the vulnerability of Russian armored vehicles against such weapons in the ongoing Ukraine war.

Further to those survivability concerns, Karl Flynn notes in a November 2020 Proceedings article that the USMC’s relatively lightly armed and armored vehicles, such as the ACV, AAV, and Light Armored Vehicle (LAV), would be vulnerable in possible operations against China’s People’s Liberation Army-Marine Corps (PLA-MC) in a conflict over Taiwan.
Flynn notes that currently fielded AAVs and LAVs may be under-armored and under-gunned against the PLA-MC’s amphibious tanks, noting that the USMC’s decision to divest itself of M1 Abrams tanks has resulted in a situation where the PLA-MC outmatches USMC armor in terms of both firepower and protection.

The USMC may also struggle to keep its forces at sea as it contends with an amphibious warfare ship shortage.
In a Defense News article this month, Megan Eckstein mentions that USMC is considering alternate deployments to address the shortage, which Lieutenant General Karsten Heckl, deputy commandant for combat development and integration, has called the “single biggest existential threat” to the service.

Eckstein says the USMC has been forced to use other types of ships, such as the Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB) and Expeditionary Fast Transport (EPF), to fill the gap. But while the USMC has successfully used the EPF in the Pacific several times recently, the ship is not tailor-made for amphibious missions.
Bryan McGrath notes in a January 2023 Defense One article that the US is planning to acquire Light Amphibious Warships (LAW) that could also transport Marines from shore to shore, unlike traditional connectors such as AAVs.
However, McGrath points out that LAWs may not be survivable against anti-ship missiles, lack the capacity to resupply far-flung forces in remote islands and could be too slow and under-armed for combat. They are also costly, he notes.
In contrast to the USMC’s woes, China is apparently making steady progress in modernizing the PLA-MC, expanding the force in quality and quantity.

In a Task and Purpose article this month, Jeff Schogol notes that as of 2022 the PLA-MC has expanded from two to eight combined arms brigades, noting in comparison a US Army brigade typically has 5,000 soldiers.
Schogol notes that while the PLA-MC would play a vital role in a potential invasion of Taiwan, the force is an enabler, not the main invasion force, as the PLA-Ground Force (PLA-GF) has specially trained amphibious assault troops for such an operation.
While the PLA-MC can contribute six battalions to support an invasion effort, Schogol says it is still hamstrung by its small size and lack of experience in expeditionary operations.

US Marines rush wonky amphibious vehicles to the Pacific - Asia Times

 

[northern watch]

 

[jward]

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

#China warns #Philippines against ‘playing with fire’ as Manila boosts military presence near #Taiwan China's warning comes amid reports that Manila plans to bolster its military deployment on strategically important islands it controls near Taiwan, prompting Beijing’s stern words urging ‘clear understanding’ Philippine Batanes province sits less than 200km from Taiwan, which Beijing describes as ‘at the centre of China’s core interests’ Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Thursday reiterated Beijing’s position that Taiwan was “at the centre of China’s core interests and represents an insurmountable red line and bottom line”. https://scmp.com/news/china/dip

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755970895213199529

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1755970895213199529?s=20

 

[Housecarl]

Hummmm.............

Posted for fair use......

Will China have the manpower to take Taiwan? - Asia Times

China is intently observing the Ukraine war, drawing lessons from the ongoing conflict pitting Russia versus the West in a proxy theater for a possible

asiatimes.com

CHINA-TAIWAN

Will China have the manpower to take Taiwan?​

China recently tweaked its military recruitment regulations, sparking certain speculation it may be preparing for a war of attrition over Taiwan

By GABRIEL HONRADA
FEBRUARY 19, 2024

China is intently observing the Ukraine war, drawing lessons from the ongoing conflict pitting Russia versus the West in a proxy theater for a possible protracted war over Taiwan.

This month, Business Insider reported that China may be preparing for a drawn-out war after witnessing Russia’s protracted conflict in Ukraine, citing an International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank assessment. That may mean focusing more on its reservists and reexamining operational plans for long-term industrial and logistic sustainment.

The Business Insider report notes that China’s military recruitment regulations passed in 2023 empowered China’s leaders to tweak the terms and conditions of military recruitment during the war and recall veterans to service.

It notes that heavy losses in Ukraine and reports of mistreatment of conscripts and contract soldiers have been stumbling blocks for Russian military recruitment.

Business Insider says that China’s new recruitment measures may indicate it is considering the likelihood of a similarly slow, plodding war in the Indo-Pacific as it may not achieve the short, quick, swift victory afforded by a surprise attack some analysts are predicting.

Early in the Ukraine war, Russia attempted to seize Kiev with a blitzkrieg, which failed due to the lack of surprise, Russia’s military mistakes, under-preparedness and Ukrainian resistance. Subsequently, the war has turned into a World War I-style attrition, with horrific material and human costs.

In estimating China’s possible timeframe for a Taiwan conflict, Timothy Heath and other writers note in a June 2023 RAND analysis that Taiwan is most vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days of a Chinese invasion.

Heath and others mention that due to Taiwan’s military disadvantages and low durability, a US intervention would be required to repel a Chinese invasion within that timeframe. Without a US intervention, they note that China’s overwhelming military resources would likely allow it to subjugate the self-governing island Beijing considers a renegade province.

Asia Times noted in October 2023 that, at the minimum, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might need to land 300,000 to 400,000 troops in Taiwan to quickly seize the island, following swift and sharp air and missile decapitation strikes that aim to take out Taiwan’s civilian and military leadership.

But should that fail, the PLA may have to send as many as 2 million troops to Taiwan, including police and paramilitary personnel, to ensure a three-to-one or five-to-one numerical superiority against the defender.

However, China’s manpower woes may make raising such a force extremely challenging in recruiting highly skilled, psychologically and physically fit soldiers.

Task and Purpose, in a video this month, notes that as the PLA modernizes its equipment, it will need highly educated, technologically savvy personnel to operate it.

However, it mentions Chinese cultural views of the military as a lowly career, high emigration from China, increasing physical and psychological conditions among potential recruits, corruption in the PLA, the long-term impact of the One Child Policy and the perceived hardships of military life over a lucrative civilian career all contribute to China’s military manpower shortage.

Task and Purpose notes that the PLA needs to find ways to make a military career appealing to younger Chinese, offering skills and opportunities that could be used outside the military and ensuring competitive salaries.

While the Ukraine war has decimated Russia’s tank fleet, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds mention for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) this month that Russia has ramped up tank production to 1,500 units per year by increasing factory work shifts and reactivating previously mothballed production facilities.

However, Watling and Reynolds say that 80% of those tanks are refurbished from older war stocks and that while Russia can maintain a stable production rate through 2024, it will find that most vehicles will require deeper refurbishment in 2025 and will have exhausted most of its available stocks by 2026.

China may note those lessons in its shipbuilding industry as it may face heavy warship losses in a Taiwan scenario. The US 2023 China Military Power Report mentions that the PLA-Navy (PLA-N) is the largest navy in the world, with 370 ships and submarines including 138 major surface combatants.

In January 2023, Asia Times reported on a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report wargaming a 2026 Chinese invasion of Taiwan, wherein China lost 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52,000 ground troops.

Despite those high potential losses, China’s shipbuilding industry appears primed for a war of attrition. Niharika Mandhana mentions in a Wall Street Journal this month that more than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year, with Europe contributing just 5% of global production and the US contributing next to nothing.

Mandhana notes that China’s shipbuilding industry benefits from a massive commercial workload, enabling it to quickly build new ships and repair battle-damaged ones when sized to wartime production rates.

Dominic Nicholls points out in an April 2021 article for The Telegraph that, since 2014, China has been cranking out more submarines, warships, amphibious assault ships and auxiliaries than the total number of vessels in the British, German, Spanish, and Taiwanese navies. Nicholls adds that every four years China adds the equivalent of the Royal Navy to its fleet in tonnage.

In February 2023, Asia Times pointed out China’s shipbuilding lead over the US, with each of China’s 13 naval shipyards having more capacity than all seven US naval shipyards combined. Budget cuts in the US have resulted in layoffs of skilled workers whose skills could not be easily replaced.

The lack of new shipbuilding facilities has also resulted in US warships staying longer in shipyards for repairs, giving little incentive for shipyards to increase production capacity, resulting in the loss of skilled workers, technical know-how and subcontractors.

Despite that numerical and production advantage, Justin Katz says in an article this month for Breaking Defense that it’s not all about numbers, stressing that the US Navy is part of a larger ecosystem, highlighting platforms across multiple domains, networks, cyberspace and space-based assets, emphasizing that it is the joint force that enables the US Navy.

However, Asia Times noted in January 2024 that numerical superiority often trumps short-lived technological advantages, with 25 out of 28 naval wars from the Peloponnesian War to the Cold War being won by superior fleet numbers, with only three won out of technological advantage.

 

[northern watch]

Taiwan protests after China boards a tourist boat near Kinmen Island​

Taiwan is protesting China’s boarding of a tourist boat as tensions rise around the Kinmen archipelago, which lies just off the Chinese coast but is controlled by Taiwan
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN Associated Press
February 20, 2024, 12:14 AM

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Taiwan on Tuesday protested China’s boarding of a tourist boat, as tensions rise around the Kinmen archipelago, which lies a short distance off China's coast but is controlled by Taiwan.

Taiwanese media reported the King Xia, carrying 11 crew and 23 passengers, was boarded by the Chinese coast guard for about 32 minutes on Monday. Taiwan's coast guard escorted the boat back to Kinmen, and it then continued its sight-seeing voyage.

Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling told journalists at the legislature on Tuesday that the incident “hurt the feelings of our people, created panic among the people, and was not in the interest of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,” referring to the 160 kilometer- (100 mile)-wide waterway that separates mainland China from Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims as its own territory.

Premier Chen Chien-jen said Taiwan was seeking to lower tensions in the area, which have escalated as China increased military activities following Taiwan's election of an independence-leading president in January.

“We hope that this matter can be resolved properly," Chen said. "We hope that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will adopt a rational, reciprocal, and cooperative approach to maintain the security of the waters between Kinmen and (the Chinese port city of) Xiamen and allow people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to communicate in a more healthy and orderly manner.”

China is stepping up patrols in the waters off the coast of Kinmen and its associated islands, days after two Chinese fishermen drowned while being chased by the Taiwanese coast guard, which accused the boat of trespassing.

Taiwan's coast guard said a boat carrying four people was fishing about one nautical mile away from Kinmen, which Taiwan has claimed as a restricted area largely for military purposes, and capsized during a chase. Relatives of the deceased arrived on Kinmen to preside at traditional funeral services and to bring their cremated remains home. The two survivors were also sent back to mainland China, according to Taiwan's official Central News Agency.

China blamed Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party for the fishermen’s deaths. It also said that there was no such thing as “restricted” waters.

A spokesperson for the Chinese coast guard said Sunday that its Fujian division will regularly monitor the waters off the southern coast of Xiamen — within view of Kinmen — to strengthen maritime law enforcement.

China's Foreign Ministry declined to answer questions on the matter, saying it was not a “diplomatic issue,” in a reflection of Beijing's refusal to recognize Taiwan as a independent political identity with its own legitimate governing organs.

Fishermen from both Taiwan and China regularly sail that stretch of water, which has seen a rise in tensions as the number of Chinese vessels — including sand dredgers and fishing boats — have notably increased in the area.

Kinmen residents have complained of both the noise and sound pollution from the vessels, as well as losses to their livelihood in fishing.

Taiwan split from China during the 1949 civil war, but Beijing continues to regard the island of 23 million and its outlying islands as Chinese territory and has been ramping up its threat to achieve that by military force if necessary.

In addition to piling diplomatic, political and military pressure on Taiwan, China is seen as seeking to bring Kinmen into its orbit, along with Taiwan-controlled island group of Matsu, which lies off the Chinese coast to the north. Taiwanese forces based in the area have fired at drones sent over from the mainland in what is seen as a hybrid civilian-military effort to sow fear and undermine support for Taiwan's government.

China regularly sends warplanes and navy ships into areas surrounding the island. In the 24 hours leading up to 6:00 a.m. on Tuesday, 24 military aircraft and eight ships were detected operating around the island, Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported, adding that 11 of the planes crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait. It said Taiwan scrambled jets, dispatched ships and put land-based missile defenses on alert, all standard responses to what has become a near-daily show of force between the sides.
___
Associated Press video journalist Johnson Lai contributed to this report.

Taiwan protests after China boards a tourist boat near Kinmen Island

Taiwan is protesting China’s boarding of a tourist boat as tensions rise around the Kinmen archipelago, which lies just off the Chinese coast but is controlled by Taiwan

abcnews.go.com

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#SouthChinaSea: #PLA sends forces to monitor #US - #Philippines air patrols over disputed waters

The People’s Liberation Army said it sent forces to the South China Sea to monitor the latest US-Philippines joint air patrol on Monday as the two allies launched their second drill in the disputed waters this month.

This week’s US-Philippine joint patrols over the South China Sea include a B-52H bomber and FA-50 combat aircraft, according to the Philippine Air Force. This as part of what they have called a “maritime cooperative activity”.

Beijing accuses Manila of ‘roping in non-regional countries’ to stir trouble in the region as allies hold second drill this month.

Tensions over the waterway are heated as the Philippines mulls permanent facility on contested reef and accuses Chinese fishermen of harming ecosystem.

PLA sends forces to monitor US-Philippines air patrols over South China Sea

Beijing accuses Manila of ‘roping in non-regional countries’ to stir trouble in the region as allies hold second drill this month.

scmp.com

 

[northern watch]

Cell outages will be 100x worse when China invades Taiwan, Sen. warns​

By MORGAN PHILLIPS, CONGRESS REPORTER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 15:29 EST, 22 February 2024
UPDATED: 15:31 EST, 22 February 2024

The disastrous cell phone outage at AT&T was only a fraction of what 'will' happen in the U.S. when China invades Taiwan , one U.S. senator warned. Some 74,000 users across the AT&T network were unable to make calls on Thursday, with thousands more at other networks left without service according to DownDetector . Thousands more at other networks were left without service. 'I don’t know the cause of the AT&T outage,' said Sen. Marco Rubio , Fla., top Republican on the Intelligence Committee.

'But I do know it will be 100 times worse when #China launches a cyber attack on America on the eve of a #Taiwan invasion. And it won’t be just cell service they hit, it will be your power, your water and your bank,' he went on. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are currently investigating the outages as a potential cyberattack. Downed cellular connection left some without the ability to call 911 for emergencies.

Fellow Florida Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez echoed Rubio's sentiment. He posted on X: 'Agreed, Senator @marcorubio! Communist #China will continue to work overtime to undermine America & the free world.' China recognizes Taiwan as its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under Beijing 's control.

While the United States does not formally recognize Taiwan, it is the island's main ally and supplier of military equipment - a thorn in ties between Washington and Beijing. The US State Department authorized the sale of a $75 million advanced tactical data link system to Taiwan this week. Days ago FBI Director Christopher Wray warned China's ability to conduct cyber attacks has grown to a 'scale greater than we'd seen before.'

While the Munich Security Conference was largely focused on wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, Wray warned politicians and intelligence officials not to lose sight of a subtler menace' Beijing's goals to plant malware inside the US's critical infrastructure. Wray cited Volt Typhoon, the moniker given to the Chinese hacking network that infiltrated the US last year, but said it's only the 'tip of the iceberg.' Under 'Volt Typhoon' Beijing's military have burrowed into more than 20 major suppliers in the last year alone including a water utility in Hawaii, a major West Coast port and at least one oil and gas pipeline , analysts revealed weeks ago.

They have bypassed elaborate cyber security systems by intercepting passwords and log-ins unguarded by junior employees, leaving China 'sitting on a stockpile of strategic' vulnerabilities. 'It is very clear that Chinese attempts to compromise critical infrastructure are in part to pre-position themselves to be able to disrupt or destroy that critical infrastructure in the event of a conflict,' said Brandon Wales of the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

In August the hackers were spotted trying to penetrate systems run by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas that provide the state's power. But Hawaii is thought to be the biggest target given the crucial role it would play for the US if conflict broke out over Taiwan. In May, Microsoft uncovered Chinese attempts to infiltrate dozens of sectors in Guam, the closest US territory to Taiwan.

Communications, manufacturing, utility, transportation, construction, maritime, government, information technology, and education organizations were targeted by Volt Typhoon. It also comes after last week House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner demanded President Biden declassify information related to an urgent national security threat, later revealed to relate to Russia's anti-satellite capabilities. It also comes after last week House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner demanded President Biden declassify information related to an urgent national security threat, later revealed to relate to Russia's anti-satellite capabilities.

Cell outages will be 100x worse when China invades Taiwan, Sen. warns

The disastrous cell phone outage at AT&T was only a fraction of what 'will' happen in the U.S. when China invades Taiwan , one U.S. senator warned.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[jward]

apnews.com
China demands the US stop any official contact with Taiwan following a congressional visit


Updated 2:19 PM CST, February 22, 2024

WASHINGTON (AP) — China responded sternly Thursday to a U.S. congressional delegation’s visit to Taiwan, demanding the U.S. stop any official contact with the self-governing island.

“China opposes any form of official interaction between the U.S. and Taiwan authorities and rejects U.S. interference in Taiwan affairs in whatever form or under whatever pretext,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said. She urged Washington to be “mindful of the extreme complexity and sensitivity” of the Taiwan issue.

Mao spoke shortly after leaders of the House Select Committee on China’s Communist Party met with Taiwanese leaders on a high-profile trip aimed at showing U.S. support for the island’s democratically elected government.

The congressional visit drew a stronger-than-usual response. Beijing has long protested any official interaction the U.S. and Taiwan but is particularly dissatisfied with the House select committee, which was formed in 2023 and is known for its hawkish views of China’s ruling party.

However, the visit is unlikely to trigger major military actions as then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit did in the summer of 2022. Beijing and Washington are seeking to stabilize their rocky relations following a November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The congressional visit coincided with an announcement by the U.S. State Department of a $75 million arms sale to Taiwan. The sale is relatively minor in size and does not include weaponry. Instead, it covers communications and global positioning systems as well as related technology.

Mao criticized the sale as “undermining China’s sovereignty and security interests and harming China-U.S. relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

The U.S. is obligated under a 1979 law to provide Taiwan with sufficient military hardware and technology to deter invasion, and its arm sales to Taiwan have always drawn strong opposition from Beijing, which considers the island as part of Chinese territory and vows to take it, by force if necessary.

Taiwan is also part of the $95 billion aid package that passed the Senate this month but has stalled in the House. That package, which focused on Ukraine and Israel, included $1.9 billion to replenish U.S. weapons provided to Taiwan. An additional $3.3 billion would go to build more U.S.-made submarines in support of a security partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom.

In Taiwan, Rep. Mike Gallagher, the select committee’s Republican chair, and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, its Democratic ranking member, suggested ways to speed up the delivery of military weapons to Taiwan, including joint production of some weapons that do not need intellectual property transfer, according to a report by Central News Agency, the island’s main wire service.

The delegation met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and also President-elect Lai Ching-te. Lai, who won a three-way race in January and will take office in May.

“Today, we’ve come as Democrats and Republicans to show our bipartisan support for this partnership, which, thanks to your leadership, I think is stronger and more rock solid than ever,” Gallagher said during the meeting with Tsai.
___

AP Diplomatic Writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report

China demands the US stop any official contact with Taiwan following a congressional visit

China is responding sternly to a U.S. congressional delegation’s visit to Taiwan, demanding the U.S. stop any official contact with the self-governing island.

apnews.com

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Philippines fortifying a #Taiwan front line against #China

Northernmost Batanes facilities and ports set for significant upgrades as US-Philippine cooperation builds for a potential Taiwan war.

“Our relationship with [China] is one of intense strategic competition. At the same time, the United States is committed to managing this competition responsibly so that it does not veer into miscalculation or conflict,” said US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink at a recent Atlantic Council think tank event.

“We don’t want [developing] countries to have to choose between us and [China]. But we want to help ensure that they have a choice and that they can make their decisions free from coercion,” he added, referring to Global South nations navigating increasingly contentious relations between the superpowers.

Speaking at the same event, veteran Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan arguedthat Southeast Asian nations, in particular, will refuse to side with any superpower against the other since they “have concerns about both certain aspects of Chinese behavior and certain aspects of American behavior.”

The situation in the Philippines, however, is unique. The Southeast Asian nation is not only a full-fledged US defense treaty ally but it is also increasingly contributing to an emerging “integrated deterrence” strategy against China.

In particular, the Philippines is expanding its military presence in its northernmost islands, which are situated close to Taiwan’s southern shores.

Earlier this month, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro visited a naval detachment in Mavulis, situated only 88 miles from the southern tip of Taiwan and even closer to many nearby Taiwanese islands.

The outspoken Philippine defense chief, who has openly questioned the value of diplomatic engagement with Beijing, has provocatively described the nation’s northernmost military facility as the “spearhead of the Philippines.”

Crucially, Manila and Washington are also exploring a joint presence in the area under the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) – a development that would constitute a potential “redline’’ for China.

Although still hedging his great power bets, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has admitted that it’s “very hard to imagine” for his country to remain totally “neutral” amid ongoing fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Reverse island chain

Marcos Jr’s decision to fortify bilateral defense cooperation with the US, barely a month after a state visit to Beijing, was doubly surprising.

For starters, it ran counter to his initial push for a “new golden era” of bilateral relations with China and his longtime emphasis on diplomacy and balanced relations with superpowers.

But even more surprising has been his decision to expand the parameters of the EDCA with a northern orientation toward Taiwan rather than a western one towards the South China Sea, where Manila and Beijing are at heated loggerheads over contested territories and features.

The bulk of the new bases under the expanded EDCA are located in northernmost Philippine provinces, namely Cagayan and Isabela, which are notably distant from the South China Sea theater.

Crucially, the two allies have also expanded joint exercises with a growing focus on the Philippines’ northern shores.

The US is also looking at developing a port facility in the Philippines’ northernmost province of Batanes, which includes Mavulis. Last year, officials from the US Pentagon were reportedly in Batanes, where they discussed funding for the project with Governor Marilou Cayco.

Philippine authorities maintain that any cooperation with the Pentagon is primarily geared toward economic and civilian purposes.

The port in Batanes, for instance, is supposed to enhance connectivity between the relatively isolated province – surrounded by rough seas and regularly battered by monsoons – and the rest of the Philippines.

As for facilities in other northern Philippine provinces, authorities insist that any US support or rotational presence will be primarily for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations.

But as one Washington-based observer told this author, those facilities could also be “dual-use.” For instance, EDCA facilities built for potentially housing HADR-related hardware such as cargo planes could also, in theory, host fighter jets and more offensive-oriented weapons systems.

But as Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at London’s School of Oriental and Africa Studies, recently told the media, “Beijing will see any US move to build up ports and facilities…[both] overtly military ones or ostensibly civilian ones” in the Indo-Pacific as a hostile act as they can also “be used to support any potential US intervention over a Chinese use of force against Taiwan as hostile.”

In particular, China fears that the US is trying to build an “island chain” of dual-purpose facilities around Taiwan to more effectively respond to any potential continency over the self-ruling island that China views as a renegade province that must eventually be “reunified” with the mainland.

Mixed strategic signals

For now, the Marcos Jr administration has been sending mixed signals on its stance on the Taiwan question. During his trip to Washington last year, the Filipino president equivocated on his country’s potential contribution to an “integrated deterrence” strategy on Taiwan.

In contrast to top Philippine military officials, who publicly admitted the possibility of joint operations during a contingency, Marcos Jr has been adamant that the country’s defense posture is primarily “defensive” and not pointed at any particular country, namely China.

Nevertheless, the trajectory of the Philippine-US defense cooperation in recent months suggests that the Southeast Asian nation is gradually preparing for a D-Day, both in its western and northern waters.

Filipino strategists believe China is increasingly treating the Bashi Channel, the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait as part of an integrated theater. That, they say, is driving the need for correspondingly comprehensive countermeasures as the nation shifts its strategic posture and overall defense calculus vis-à-vis China.

“Starting 2024, the operational tempo for the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) will be higher,” the Philippine defense chief said during his recent visit to the Philippines’ northernmost military facility in Batanes. “[Batanes is the] spearhead of the Philippines as far as the northern baseline is concerned,” he added.

The Philippine Navy described the unprecedented visit by the Philippines’ defense chief, who was accompanied by the AFP chief and top admiral, as signifying “a pivotal moment in our nation’s commitment to territorial defense and national security.”

Last November, the US and Philippines conducted joint patrols in the area and this year are set to stage even larger joint drills near Batanes. China has warned the Philippines against “stoking the fire” by expanding its military presence and joint activities with the US in the area.

But top Filipino strategists believe that the country has no choice but to press on, given the extremely high stakes.

“My worst case scenario is China’s [occupation of] Taiwan since the [self-ruling island] is essentially our buffer state,” Rommel Jude Ong, a retired rear admiral, told the author in a recent interview.

“So if we lose Taiwan, then China becomes our neighbor. And our [entire] northern territories will be under threat,” he added.

Philippines arming up for D-Day with China - Asia Times

MANILA – Wu Shicun, chairman of China’s state-funded Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, fired a shot across the Philippines’

asiatimes.com

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#China Is Running Out of Lines to Cross in the #Taiwan Strait

In 2020, the balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait began a gradual but profound shift in China’s favor.

That August, Alex Azar, then the Health and Human Services secretary, became the highest-ranking U.S. cabinet official to visit Taiwan in more than four decades.

Though he was there to talk about the pandemic, China’s People’s Liberation Army (P.L.A.) responded by carrying out large-scale military exercises around the self-governing island, sending aircraft over the median line of the Taiwan Strait for only the third time in more than 20 years.

Since then, China has responded to such visits and other perceived provocations by flying more than 4,800 sorties, with growing numbers of aircraft flying in locations previously seen as off-limits and conducting dozens of increasingly complex air and naval military exercises around Taiwan.

The P.L.A.’s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. But over the longer term, it has also gradually created a dangerous sense of complacency in Taipei and Washington, while giving China the crucial operational practice it might one day need to seize the island.

As a military analyst specializing in China and Taiwan who has spent the last two years managing an open-source database tracking Chinese military activity, I am deeply concerned about the dangers that this activity poses.

Alarm bells should be ringing, but neither Taiwan nor the United States have taken meaningful action to deter China, and Taiwan’s response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing. A more robust approach is needed to deter China from escalating the situation.

In 2020, shortly after China began raising the pressure, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense started releasing daily reports on Chinese military activity inside the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone, a perimeter extending beyond Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace that is monitored to provide early warning of approaching Chinese planes or missiles.

In previous years, China rarely entered the zone. But in 2020, P.L.A. aircraft breached it nearly 400 times. Last year, that number exceeded 1,700.

Beijing has steadily pushed the envelope. P.L.A. forces also rarely crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the halfway point between China and Taiwan.

But in August 2022, after a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Chinese forces crossed the line 302 times that month, essentially erasing it as a functional boundary.

Today, Chinese aircraft continue to cross the line almost daily, leaving Taiwan only minutes to assess China’s intentions in a dangerous guessing game that leaves the door open for miscalculation. Since last year, China also has essentially established a permanent naval presence around the island.

With no official contact between Beijing and Taipei for the past eight years, the chances of defusing an inadvertent clash are limited. An isolated confrontation could escalate into an attack by China or to a rapid deployment of the now well-drilled air and naval forces it has around Taiwan, cutting the island off from any U.S. help and dramatically reducing American military options.

This tense climate is straining Taiwan’s defenses. In early 2021, Taiwan stopped scrambling jets for every violation of the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone after spending almost nine percent of the previous year’s defense budget on monitoring Chinese aircraft.

This atmosphere also has sown policy confusion. In October 2022, after the incursions following Ms. Pelosi’s visit, Taiwan’s defense ministry announced that any P.L.A. aircraft that violate Taiwan’s territorial air and sea space — 12 nautical miles from the island’s shores — will be viewed as a “first strike,” likely meaning they would be shot down.

Since then, no incursions by P.L.A. aircraft have been publicly revealed, but China has tested Taiwan’s policy by sending at least 27 balloons into the island’s territorial airspace since the start of this year, forcing Taipei to choose between taking no action, which gives Beijing tacit permission to continue to violate the island’s airspace, or shooting down the balloons, which could provoke China.

So far, Taiwan is not known to have taken any action against the balloons that have entered its airspace.

Taipei’s approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent, marked by unexplained changes in how much information it releases.

Caution is understandable to avoid raising public alarm. But a lack of transparency also prevents the government from communicating the true situation to Taiwan’s people, which could lead to calls for a different policy.

Taiwanese made their desires clear last month when they chose Lai Ching-te, who is committed to the island’s sovereignty, as their next president.

Mr. Lai’s victory presents a chance for his government to adopt a more transparent approach to Beijing’s military aggression similar to that of the Philippines, which has demonstrated that drawing attention to Chinese actions in the South China Sea can help build domestic, regional and international support for efforts to counter that aggression.

In Washington, there is bipartisan support for Taiwan, and President Biden has repeatedly stated that the United States would come to the island’s defense.

The Taiwan Relations Act, which has governed American policy toward the island for four decades, explicitly states that any moves to determine Taiwan’s future by other than peaceful means would be of “grave concern.” But America has come up with no specific response to China’s recent military activity.

The United States must make clear to China that its military activities could spark a war and are no longer acceptable.

Washington should also coordinate with Taipei on more effective ways to deter Chinese provocations, such as through increased information sharing, air patrol exercises and ensuring that the island is fully equipped and prepared to defend its sovereignty.

America’s strategic attention is being consumed by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. But if the United States takes its eye off the perilous situation facing Taiwan, there soon may be no lines left for China to cross.

https://nytimes.com/2024/02/26/opi

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

#China sends several more coast guard ships to waters around #Taiwan's Kinmen Islands.

China takes advantage of the 2 dead Chinese fishermen to apply more pressure on Taiwan. Via TaiwanPlus News.

The question is, how far will China go?

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#US Coast Guard Boards #Chinese Vessels

U.S. Coast Guardsmen inspected two Chinese vessels this month while screening the South Pacific for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, according to an agency official.

The U.S. Coast Guard and accompanying police officers from Kiribati boarded the fishing boats while on a joint patrol of the Pacific island nation's vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a Coast Guard spokesperson told Reuters on Monday. No issues were reported, the spokesperson said.

An EEZ extends 200 nautical miles from the coastline and grants countries a sovereign right to exploit underwater resources, such as vital fish stocks, within its limits. But they can be difficult to enforce for small nations like Kiribati, which had a population of just over 130,000, according to United Nations figures.

The South Pacific has become one of the many subregions in which the geostrategic rivalry between China and the United States has been laid bare in recent years, with the former expanding its influence deep into the global south in countries where the United States once enjoyed historical influence.

The spokesperson for U.S. Coast Guard forces in Guam told Reuters that the pair of China -flagged vessels were boarded this month while coast guardsmen and Kiribati officers patrolled the host nation's 1.35-million square mile EEZ from February 11-16.

The spokesperson said the inspection was "part of routine maritime law enforcement activities" to ensure compliance with Kiribati's EEZ regulations.

Beijing has yet to acknowledge the incident, and it was unclear whether its representatives were notified after the fact.

The Coast Guard sector for Micronesia and Guam did not immediately respond to a written request for comment from Newsweek . China's Foreign Ministry did not answer phone calls seeking comment.

Kiribati, which dealt a blow to American interests in 2019 by switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, has hosted uniformed Chinese police officers since last year as part of an ongoing training program, the country's acting police commissioner, Eeri Aritiera, told Reuters last week.

The unannounced deal, which so far has not resulted in a Chinese police station on any of Kiribati's many atolls, appeared to be part of Beijing's long-term push to increase its security presence in the region.

The U.S. counts Kiribati as a close neighbor —it is the Pacific Island nation nearest to Hawaii—and marks 44 years of formal relations this year.

Washington announced plans last year to open an embassy in Kiribati's capital, Tarawa, to rival Beijing's complex there.

Policing agreements remain a sensitive topic for both governments, however. Last week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said she was unaware of the matter when asked at a regular press conference in Beijing.

"As a principle, China always engages in cooperation with relevant countries on the basis of equality, mutual respect, mutual benefit, openness and inclusiveness," Mao said.

https://newsbreak.com/news/334684417

 

[jward]

Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones

In my pinned post, China’s increased operations around Taiwan are described as “anaconda-like activity.”

As China slowly, methodically tightens its grip on Taiwan—using gray zone tactics to signal an inescapable dominance—here's everything you need to know

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1763622033399689233

View: https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1763622033399689233?s=20

 

[jward]

Taiwan News
@TaiwanNewsEN
1h
US Green Berets reportedly permanently based in Taiwan for 1st time

US Green Berets reportedly permanently based in Taiwan for 1st time | Taiwan News | 2024-03-02 18:37:00

American military advisors permanently stationed in Army amphibious bases in Kinmen and Penghu | 2024-03-02 18:37:00

taiwannews.com.tw

WAR - 02-24-2024-to-03-01-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(333) 02-03-2024-to-02-09-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR**** (334) 02-10-2024-to-02-16-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR**** (335) 02-17-2024-to-02-23-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****...

www.timebomb2000.com

 

[danielboon]

Here is another article on the above

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1763890358704832663

View: https://twitter.com/GoFundTaiwan/status/1763890358704832663

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Taiwan training laser weapons on #China’s drone threat

Taiwan to deploy refined 50-kilowatt laser weapon on armored vehicles, a potential potent counter to China’s suicide drone swarms.

Taiwan has teamed up with allies to develop a 50-kilowatt laser weapon system, marking a potential great leap in the self-governing island’s defenses against China’s rising drone threats and incursions.

The Taipei Times reported that Taiwan is rapidly advancing in the development of a pioneering 50-kilowatt vehicle-mounted laser weapon, which it aims to deploy on CM-32 Clouded Leopard armored vehicles by the end of the year.

The initiative, spearheaded by the National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), marks a notable improvement on a low-powered prototype unveiled last year. The high-energy laser system under development is primarily designed to counter drones.

The effort highlights the institute’s global technological collaborations and the publication of research exploring operational synergies between laser technology and existing air defense platforms such as the missile-based AN/TWQ-1 Avenger.

While lasers can be used against ballistic and hypersonic missiles, a July 2021 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report states that a 1-megawatt laser may be needed to neutralize such threats.

While the Boeing YAL-1 airborne laser weapon was in that power range, it was canceled in 2010 due to high costs, impractical size and weight, technological immaturity and limited range due to atmospheric beam distortion.

However, solid-state laser (SSL) technology advancements and a resetting of goals to use lasers for point defense rather than missile defense have made laser weapons feasible.

Taiwan’s new laser weapon may become the “hard kill” component of its planned national drone defense system against intruding drones from mainland China.

In September 2022, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Taiwan is bolstering its defense capabilities with a US$143 million drone defense system developed by the NCSIST to counter the rising incursions of Chinese drones, particularly around its offshore islands.

SCMP notes that the system is designed to identify incoming drones through search radars, camera and frequency detection, jam the drones’ controls electronically and then capture them with nets.

SCMP notes that Taiwan’s Defense Ministry plans to implement this system over the next four years across all military bases, ports and airports with an emphasis on 45 offshore islands and isolated locations, targeting not only Chinese military threats but also civilian drones used in gray-zone tactics.

Taiwan’s drive to develop a cost-effective short-range air defense system that can take down multiple drones is likely spurred by the potential dronification of a Taiwan Strait conflict.

In February 2024, Asia Times reported that China has revealed plans to transform its military operations by integrating advanced unmanned systems.

China’s strategy marks a shift toward drone-led special operations in war scenarios, including a potential conflict with the US over Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of flying vast distances, diving deep underwater and lying in wait for long periods.

The PLA is reportedly planning for a small-scale conflict between China and an unnamed neighboring country in 2035, with both sides agreeing to limit their equipment to small arms including small boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns.

In the scenario, the PLA is tasked with striking swiftly and silently at key enemy installations, including critical command and supply hubs, deep behind enemy lines.

Advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems hover over the battlefield after an initial attack, assess the damage and determine whether further action is required.

Furthermore, in December 2022, Asia Times reported that China had unveiled a catamaran drone carrier mothership, a new type of warship that could change the military balance in a conflict over Taiwan.

The catamaran drone mini-carrier, part of an experimental naval training force, can simulate enemy drone swarms, high-volume anti-ship missile strikes and distributed electronic warfare attacks.

The drone carrier could operate as part of a larger surface action group to direct drone swarms against shore targets or air defenses, allowing more traditional capabilities to be used more effectively.

The drones can have specialized payloads such as sensors, electronic warfare systems or explosive warheads.

This new type of warship could play a decisive role in a clash between the mainland and Taiwan, potentially launching drone swarm attacks to knock out Taiwan’s air defenses and enabling a “shock and awe” bombing campaign to take out critical military, government and civilian infrastructure.

China could seek to launch dronified small-scale military operations to take Taiwan’s frontline islands, Kinmen and Matsu, which are situated only three and nine kilometers away from the mainland.

The heavily fortified islands would likely play a vital role in Taiwan’s possible protraction strategy against a Chinese invasion, whereby their defenders would seek to buy time for US and allies to intervene in the first 90 days of a conflict.

Taking cues from the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Ukraine war, Taiwan could seek to use its new laser weapon to defend critical urban areas from suicide drone strikes, potentially eliminating the problem of limited and costly missile interceptors and the relatively poor performance of gun-based defenses.

In February 2024, Asia Times noted that if the PLA were to enter Taipei, it might face costly urban warfare in the city of seven million. Taiwan’s military is known to be preparing for that situation by acquiring “mobile, small, portable and AI-enabled” weapons, UAVs and counter-UAV systems.

Still, Taiwan may face challenges in delivering an effective laser weapon. Those include high development costs, diminishing beam power over distance, size and mobility restrictions, high energy requirements, limited suppliers for critical components and the need for specialized facilities to maintain the sophisticated weapons.

Taiwan has so far struggled to balance its acquisition of high-profile assets such as frigates and fighter jets with that of more survivable assets like shore-based anti-ship missiles, naval mines and anti-tank guided missiles, which are better-suited for an asymmetric defense strategy.

These competing strategic priorities may limit Taiwan’s resources and ultimately slow its laser weapons program.

Taiwan training laser weapons on China's drone threat - Asia Times

Taiwan has teamed up with allies to develop a 50-kilowatt laser weapon system, marking a potential great leap in the self-governing island’s defenses

asiatimes.com

 

[jward]

Ben Lewis
@OfficialBen_L
Major ADIZ Violation

MND report states that 32x PLA aircraft and 5x PLAN vessels were tracked around Taiwan today. 20 of the aircraft entered the de facto ADIZ.

This is the largest single-day total of aircraft since 02 November 2023.

English map included below

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770618799693205548

View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1770618799693205548?s=20

 

[mzkitty]

Ben Lewis
@OfficialBen_L
Major ADIZ Violation

MND report states that 32x PLA aircraft and 5x PLAN vessels were tracked around Taiwan today. 20 of the aircraft entered the de facto ADIZ.

This is the largest single-day total of aircraft since 02 November 2023.

English map included below

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1770618799693205548

View: https://twitter.com/OfficialBen_L/status/1770618799693205548?s=20

 

[northern watch]

From my email inbox Bloomberg Five Things to Start Your Day Asia Edition March 20 2024

Invasion Readiness

China’s People’s Liberation Army is building its arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it’s sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. That’s according to Congressional testimony from Admiral John Aquilino, leader of the US Indo-Pacific Command. “All indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” the admiral said. “The PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred time-line to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.” Despite Beijing’s economic challenges, its defense budget has increased by 16% to more than $223 billion, the top admiral said. In the three years since he took command, Aquilino said the People’s Liberation Army has added over 400 fighter aircraft, along with more than 20 major warships. It’s also doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles since 2020. He added that Chinese military has been rehearsing tasks linked to operations against Taiwan like simulating an encirclement with a maritime and air blockade.

 

[jward]

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Navy on Tuesday (March 26) took delivery of its fifth and sixth domestically-made Tuo Chiang-class corvettes.
Accompanied by Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) and National Security Council Secretary-General Wellington Koo (顧立雄), President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) presided over the handover ceremony to the Navy of the An Chiang and Wan Chiang corvettes, reported FTV News. In the presence of Tsai, Lung Teh Shipbuilding Co. officially transferred certificates and models of the corvettes to the Navy, and Tsai personally inspected the two new high-performance ships.
While delivering remarks at the event, Tsai said: “Four years ago, I named the first high-performance vessel as the Ta Chiang. The character ”ta' (塔) symbolizes the work of building national defense capabilities domestically. As long as we persist, sand will accumulate into a tower. Over the past few years, we have steadfastly implemented national defense autonomy, with domestically built vessels being named, launched, and delivered at an increasingly faster pace."
Lung Teh Shipbuilding Co. Chairman Huang Shou-chen (黃守真) said that the Tuo Chiang-class corvette possesses the "characteristics of a fast ship, with a maximum speed of over 40 knots when fully loaded. It has a shallow draft, enabling it to dock at fishing ports along the coast of Taiwan. It features a stealth design, making it less detectable. Additionally, it incorporates advanced and forward-looking automation and digital systems."
The Tuo Jiang-class corvette has a displacement of only 685 tons and can reach a maximum speed of 40 knots, approximately 74 kilometers per hour. Although small, it is well-equipped with the subsonic Hsiung Feng II missiles and supersonic Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles, as well as the Sea Sword II air defense missiles, capable of striking aircraft carriers.
It is also armed with an OTO Melara 76 mm naval gun and a Phalanx close-in weapon system. With its capabilities for close combat, anti-ship, and air defense, along with its ability to punch above its weight, it serves as a crucial asset for asymmetric warfare.
The An Chiang and Wan Chiang corvettes are the last of the first batch of six corvettes to be delivered to the Navy, with a total of 11 to be built by the end of 2026.

Taiwan takes delivery of 2 new Tuo Chiang-class corvettes | Taiwan News | Mar. 26, 2024 18:44

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#BREAKING: 30 #Chinese warplanes and 9 navy vessels detected around #Taiwan, Taiwanese defense ministry. Unusual high number!

"30 #PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 20 of the aircraft entered Taiwan’s northern, middle line, and SW ADIZ."

"#ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and employed appropriate force to respond."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775353499091665053

View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1775353499091665053?s=20

 

[jward]

Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg

JUST IN: White House official John Kirby says that the Biden administration doesn't support Taiwan's independence.

Yikes.

The comment came after a reporter asked about Biden's call with President Xi.

"I won't characterize President Xi's comments, but I can tell you that that President Biden was very, very clear that that nothing's changed about our one China policy."

"We don't support independence for Taiwan, but we also don't wanna see the status quo changed in a unilateral way, and certainly not by force."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775981134167613862

View: https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1775981134167613862

 

[mecoastie]

Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg

JUST IN: White House official John Kirby says that the Biden administration doesn't support Taiwan's independence.

Yikes.

The comment came after a reporter asked about Biden's call with President Xi.

"I won't characterize President Xi's comments, but I can tell you that that President Biden was very, very clear that that nothing's changed about our one China policy."

"We don't support independence for Taiwan, but we also don't wanna see the status quo changed in a unilateral way, and certainly not by force."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775981134167613862

View: https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1775981134167613862

And this is why you see all those Pacific countries like the Philippines, SK, Japan and Taiwan forging closer alliances. They know the US isnt going to come to their aid when war breaks out.

 

[danielboon]

And this is why you see all those Pacific countries like the Philippines, SK, Japan and Taiwan forging closer alliances. They know the US isnt going to come to their aid when war breaks out.

and why Duduman is right

 

[jward]

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#Japan readies for military building spree to station more military aircraft and ships near #China and #Taiwan

The Japanese government has disclosed plans to upgrade 5 airports and 11 ports for military use, according to The Asahi newspaper.

Half of these facilities are located in southwestern Japan, facing Mainland China and Taiwan.

Construction is slated to begin next April if the funding is finalized soon.

The ungraded infrastructure will accommodate fighter jets and transport aircraft, as well as destroyers and cruisers, and play host to military exercises.

One of the airports is located in Okinawa, which hosts 75% of US military facilities in the whole of Japan, including 30,000 active duty personnel and 32 military bases.

This building spree comes amid Japan's increasing militarization.

Some of Tokyo's recent moves include doubling its defense expenditures to 2% of its GDP, procuring counterstrike missiles capable of striking targets 600 miles away, and formulating plans to station troops in Pacific Island nations for the first times

The infrastructural upgrades also signal japan's strategy of stationing heavier weaponry and facilitating rapid troop deployment in coordination with the US, with an eye to containing China.

The five airports are: Kita-Kyushu; Nagasaki and Fukue in Nagasaki Prefecture; Miyazaki; and Naha.

The 11 seaports are: Muroran, Tomakomai, Kushiro, Rumoi and Ishikari-wan Shinko in Hokkaido; Takamatsu; Kochi, Susaki and Sukumo-wan in Kochi Prefecture; Hakata in Fukuoka Prefecture; and Ishigaki in Okinawa Prefecture.

The plan to “develop public infrastructure facilities,” such as airports and seaports, to strengthen defense was spelled out in the National Security Strategy of Japan, which was established in 2022.

The central government has obtained consent for the upgrades from the local governments concerned.

For the current fiscal year, 37 billion yen ($244 million) was earmarked to extend runways and improve berths to accommodate SDF and JCG aircraft and vessels.

https://asahi.com/ajw/articles/1

 

[northern watch]

 

[jward]

Guy Elster
@guyelster

#BREAKING Biden says US, Australia and Japan will establish a joint network of air defense system

12:45 PM · Apr 10, 2024
14.3K
Views

 

[jward]

The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex

JUST IN: North Korea leader Kim Jong Un says that given the 'complicated international situation', now is 'the time to be more thoroughly prepared for a war than ever before'.

9:15 PM · Apr 10, 2024
148.9K
Views

 

[Housecarl]

Guy Elster
@guyelster

#BREAKING Biden says US, Australia and Japan will establish a joint network of air defense system

12:45 PM · Apr 10, 2024
14.3K
Views

WOW.....That's better than a third of the surface of the planet.

 

[northern watch]

 

[Old Gray Mare]

Haven't seen this discussed....
Fair use.
Andrew Schulz ...if China invades Taiwan

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yhRtvqtong

short

 

[jward]

Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones
“Taiwan and its neighbors should be vigilant for a return to increased military posturing and threats from China. This isn’t the sound of the sea settling, but rather a calm before the storm.”

Must read from @brentdsadler:

Brent D. Sadler @brentdsadler Changing Chinese Military Posture… New article out trying to raise awareness of and need to better understand what is changing in the air and waters around Taiwan. In short, hold on tensions are not going to improve…

Calm Before the Storm? China’s Shifting Intimidation Tactics on Taiwan Brent Sadler In Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s New Year’s address, he described “reunification” with Taiwan as “inevitable.” Two weeks later, notwithstanding the bullying, the island nation voted in the presidential candidate who was most critical of China, someone Beijing labeled a “destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait.” In the weeks leading up to Taiwan’s Jan. 13 national elections, China undertook a notable drawdown in military aircraft incursions. The drawdown was well below recent levels, the drop was notable even after a congressional delegation visited in late February. This new quiet should not be interpreted as a de-escalation, but rather a sign of a moderated approach. >>> This is the fourth iteration (November 2022, May 2023, October 2023) of periodic reports published by The Daily Signal to address China’s intimidation of Taiwan. The week of the Taiwanese presidential election saw the lowest sustained average of People’s Liberation Army aircraft from China in Taiwan’s air defense zone since activities peaked following an August 2022 visit to Taiwan by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. On the day of the election, no Chinese aircraft were detected in the airspace surrounding Taiwan, where at least nine a day had been routinely seen. Warships of the Chinese navy followed suit and widely avoided Taiwan. This type of drawdown is uncharacteristic of China’s recent activities, which has relied on so-called aggressive “wolf warrior diplomacy” to press its goals. The perceived calm continued through late February when Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., chairman of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, led a congressional delegation to Taiwan. Historically, delegations of congressional lawmakers or senior U.S. officials have sparked Chinese military demonstrations in the Taiwan Strait. Given the nature of the Gallagher delegation, it was noteworthy that the visit didn’t elicit more of a response. Although aircraft and ships were not seen in large numbers over the Taiwan Strait, China expanded its arsenal of intimidation to include what are apparently surveillance balloons. Since Taiwan began to publish sightings in early December, a total of 94 Chinese balloons have been detected flying near the island. At least nine flew directly over Taiwan the week of the presidential election. China then marked the Chinese New Year on Feb. 10 by sending eight balloons, six warplanes, and four naval warships toward Taiwan[KM1] [SB2] , more balloons than were recorded on any previous day. These instrumented balloons fly at altitudes between 11,000 and 38,000 feet, an airspace used for commercial aircraft. China has been silent about the purpose of these balloons, which spokespersons for the Chinese Communist Party call “weather balloons” while U.S. lawmakers and others call them “spy balloons.” Such incidents remind Americans of China’s invasive opérations last year, when a large spy balloon drifted across the nation before being shot down by the U.S. military. While eyes were on the sky, tensions escalated at sea. Following then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting in April 2023 with then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., China’s Fujian Maritime Safety Administration announced that it would begin inspecting ships in the Taiwan Strait, ostensibly for only a few days. Recently, China has begun acting on that promise. In February, Chinese authorities boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat and harassed passengers. This came days after two Chinese fishermen drowned while being chased by the Taiwanese Coast Guard in “restricted waters.” The perceived heavy-handedness of Taipei over the incident prompted some division in Taiwan. Both incidents happened near Kinmen Islands, home to thousands of Taiwan civilians as well as a military garrison. Amid heightened tensions, Taiwan’s government changed how it reports the presence and activities of the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA. For years, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense published a daily report on Chinese military aircraft and warships that crossed into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone or nearby waters. Days after Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election, the defense ministry’s daily reports stopped including specifics such as aircraft type and detailed flight maps. When asked why the shift was made, the ministry responded: “We hope to let our country’s people understand the current situation we are facing as far as possible, without compromising the source of our intelligence.” That said, these daily reports are still important. To keep an eye on tensions, the U.S. was operating the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt on the South China Sea, accompanied by Destroyer Squadron 23. The destroyer USS John Finn transited the Taiwan Strait on March 5. A second aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan is nearby in Japanese waters. What does this mean? China’s drawdown in conventional military theatrics leading up to the Taiwanese election was calculated. But if the Chinese Communist Party hoped to coax Taiwan’s voters away from a more independent viewpoint, the effort backfired. China’s use of relatively benign balloons failed to send a visible but nonconfrontational reminder to the island nation. In the end, the voters elected Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te as president—continuing in power a party despised by the Chinese Communist Party. As mentioned, the United States is also familiar with Chinese balloons in our skies. The spy balloon that traversed the country last year, as well as the unidentified balloon discovered over Utah as recently as this month, now resonates in American minds. It’s possible that the balloons floating over American airspace are the same ones released over Taiwan. One of these unmanned apparatuses released in China could reach the continental U.S. via the jet stream in days. Balloons flying over Taiwan, like those floating over our homeland, surveil sensitive military installations throughout the Pacific and the continental United States. Whether these Chinese devices are intended to spy, monitor the weather, or simply intimidate, a Taiwanese problem has become an American one. Opportunities for a crisis are just over the horizon. Because of more ideal weather and operational conditions in the Taiwan Strait, mid-April is considered by many military experts to be a window for a hypothetical cross-strait confrontation between China and Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party historically has conducted high-end drills and wargames in the South China Sea in mid- to late summer. Exercises like these can quickly turn into more than that, warns the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Adm. Samuel Paparo. Considering recent Chinese military advancements, Paparo said in February, “soon we’ll be at a point where a force sufficient to execute a profound military operation is in the field and operating under a fig leaf of exercise.” Next month, Paparo takes over as commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Lai’s inauguration as Taiwan’s president is set for May 20, likely an opportunity to pressure both Taiwan and the U.S. that China won’t miss. China’s slowdown of intimidation with aircraft and ships could be the calm before a larger, more serious military demonstration. Despite this seeming lull, relations across the Taiwan Strait have been tense for months. China’s apparent draw-down of military forces and implementation of new tactics suggest that something is on Xi’s mind. Taiwan and its neighbors should be vigilant for a return to increased military posturing and threats from China. This isn’t the sound of the sea settling, but rather a calm before the storm. Calm Before Storm? China Shifts Intimidation Tactics on Taiwan China's changing intimidation tactics toward Taiwan include a drawdown in activity by military aircraft and surveillance balloons. www.dailysignal.com

 

[jward]

Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones

New video shows first live-fire test of Taiwan’s brand-new “Land Sword” missiles
3x missiles fired from the land-based, short-to-medium-range air-defense system “successfully hit the target”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1780436257262203000

View: https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1780436257262203000

 

[jward]

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

CHINA WARNS U.S AFTER JET FLIES OVER TAIWAN STRAIT

China scrambled fighter jets to shadow a U.S reconnaissance aircraft as it flew over the disputed Taiwan Strait hours after a call between Chinese and U.S. defense chiefs.

U.S Navy: "By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations. The aircraft's transit of the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."

Source: Reuters
Images for illustration

 

[jward]

Ken Moriyasu
@kenmoriyasu

Japanese officials watched how Israel fended off 99% of Iran's missiles and drones and are simulating how it may apply to the Indo-Pacific.
"We are watching this with keen interest, especially how the ballistic missiles were shot down," one official said.

 

[Night Owl]

This may mean nothing to Taiwan, but Xi has put military/air strips on those islands he created off the Philippine coast in the South China Sea. (Below-Jr. refers to: Bong Bong Marcos, Philippines President)​

Marcos Questions ‘Secret’ Duterte Deal with China on Sea Dispute​

Bloomberg) -- Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos
Cliff Venzon
April 13, 2024·2 min read

Jr. said a “gentleman’s agreement” made by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, with Beijing on the South China Sea dispute was deliberately hidden from the public.


“They call it gentleman’s agreement. I call it secret agreement,” Marcos told reporters in Washington D.C. on Friday as he wrapped up his visit for a trilateral meeting with President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The country needs to know what Duterte agreed to or as part of a compromise, Marcos said.

The Philippines, under Marcos, has asserted its claims in the South China Sea, ramping up efforts to maintain a World War II-era ship that was deliberately grounded in 1999 to serve as Manila’s outpost in the Second Thomas Shoal.

Marcos’s latest remarks highlight the deepening policy disagreement with Duterte, who forged closer ties with China. Duterte said the verbal agreement involved keeping the status quo by not sending construction materials for the ship’s repair and upkeep, and that despite it, “we have not conceded anything to China,” ABS-CBN reported this week.

Philippine military missions that rotate and resupply troops on the ship, called BRP Sierra Madre, have become a constant source of tension between Manila and Beijing, with Chinese vessels blasting water cannons at Philippine ships several times.

During the Duterte administration, China and the Philippines reached a “gentleman’s agreement, which had effectively helped maintain the overall peace and stability” in the Second Thomas Shoal, the Chinese Embassy in Manila said on Friday.

The Marcos administration stopped abiding by that agreement since February 2023, causing “constant volatility” in the area, the Chinese Embassy said.

In an interview with Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times published on Friday, Duterte accused the US of inflaming tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, while criticizing Marcos of supposedly doing America’s bidding.

Marcos has strengthened defense ties with US and Japan amid tensions with China.

“I think the trilateral agreement is extremely important. It is going to change the dynamic that we have been seeing in the region, in Asean, in Asia, around the South China Sea,” Marcos said.