WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Strait shooting
Defending Taiwan is growing costlier and deadlier
Would America have the stomach for such a fight?
Asia Oct 10th 2020 edition
The Economist
October 10th 2020
ZHUWEI
ROUSING MUSIC accompanies the H-6K, a hulking Chinese bomber, as it sweeps up into a pink sky. Moments later, its pilot presses a red button, with the panache and fortitude that only a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officer could muster, and a missile streaks towards the island of Guam. The ground ripples and a fiery explosion consumes America’s Andersen air force base. Never mind that the PLA propaganda film released in September pinches footage from Hollywood blockbusters; the message is that this is what America can expect if it is foolhardy enough to intervene on behalf of Taiwan in a regional war.
China’s Communist Party claims Taiwan, a democratic and prosperous country of 24m people, although the island has not been ruled from the mainland since 1949. A tense peace is maintained as long as Taiwan continues to say that it is part of China, even if not part of the People’s Republic. China once hoped that reunification could be achieved bloodlessly through growing economic and cultural ties. But two-thirds of Taiwanese no longer identify as Chinese, and 60% have an unfavourable view of China. In January Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party was resoundingly re-elected as president over a China-friendly rival.
Last year Xi Jinping, China’s leader, declared unification to be an “inevitable requirement for the historical rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. The PLA has stepped up pressure on Taiwan in recent months, sending warplanes across the “median line” that long served as an unofficial maritime boundary and holding large naval drills off several parts of Taiwan’s coast.
Defending Taiwan is growing ever harder. A decade ago China had four times as many warships as Taiwan. Today it has six times as many. It has six times the number of warplanes and eight times as many tanks. China’s defence budget, merely double Taiwan’s at the end of the 1990s, is now 25 times greater (see chart).
American intelligence officials do not think that China is about to unleash this firepower. The PLA’s amphibious fleet has grown slowly in recent years. China has never held even a single exercise on the scale that would be required for a D-Day-type campaign. Indeed, no country has assaulted a well-defended shore since America did so in Korea—with good reason.
Although China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force, says William Murray of the US Naval War College, the island would still be able to fire anti-ship missiles at an invading armada, picking out targets with mobile radar units hidden in the mountainous interior. That could make mincemeat of big ships crossing a narrow strait (see map). “The PLA can’t use precision weapons to attack small, mobile things,” says Ethan Lee, who as chief of general staff at Taiwan’s defence ministry in 2017-19 developed a strategy for asymmetrical warfare.
Nor can China put all its forces to use. “Only a fraction of the PLA could be deployed,” says Dennis Blasko, a former American army attaché in Beijing, “because its overwhelming numbers can’t all fit into the Taiwan front or in the airspace surrounding Taiwan at one time”. Satellite reconnaissance would give Taiwan weeks of warning to harden defences and mobilise reserves. Mr Blasko thinks a nimbler air assault, using helicopters and special forces, is more likely than an amphibious attack. Even then, he says, the island is “very defensible, if it is properly prepared and the people have the will to defend it”.
Alas, Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky. “The sad truth is that Taiwan’s army has trouble with training across the board,” says Tanner Greer, an analyst who spent nine months studying the island’s defences last year. “I have met artillery observers who have never seen their own mortars fired.” Despite long-standing efforts to make the island indigestible, Taiwan’s armed forces are still overinvested in warplanes and tanks. Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. Mr Greer says that of two dozen conscripts he interviewed, “only one was more confident in Taiwan’s ability to resist China after going through the conscript system.” Less than half of Taiwanese polled in August evinced a willingness to fight if war came.
A vital question is therefore whether Americans would do so, for the sake of a distant country whose defence spending has fallen steadily as a share of GDP over two decades. America does not have a formal alliance with Taiwan. But it sells the island weapons—$13bn-worth over the past four years—and has long implied that it would help repel an invasion if Taiwan had not provoked one. Yet the same trend that imperils Taiwan in the first place—China’s growing military power—also raises the price of American involvement.
In wargames set five or more years in the future, “the United States starts losing people and hardware in the theatre very quickly,” says David Ochmanek of the RAND Corporation, a think-tank. “Surface combatants tend to stay far from the fight, forward air bases get heavily attacked and we’re unable to project power sufficiently into the battlespace to defeat the invasion.” America is disadvantaged by geography, with its air force reliant on a handful of Asian bases well within range of Chinese missiles. American bombers can swoop in from the safety of American soil, but there is a shortage of missiles to arm them. Nor is it clear how America’s technology-dependent armed forces would fare against an inevitable physical and electronic barrage on their satellites and computer networks.
In another wargame conducted earlier this year, the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS), another think-tank, assumed that Taiwan would fight tenaciously and that America would have access to weapons still under development. Under those rosier circumstances, the island survives—at least after ten notional days of combat—but even then only at huge cost. The seas around Taiwan would look “like no-man’s-land at the Somme”, notes Christopher Dougherty of CNAS.
The question is whether America has the stomach for this. The conquest of Taiwan would not just dent American prestige but also expose the outlying islands of Japan, an ally America is pledged to defend. The Trump administration has sent several high-level officials to Taipei to show its support—one reason for the recent Chinese bluster. In Congress support for Taiwan is at “new highs”, says Bonnie Glaser of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), another think-tank.
Polls by CSIS show that Americans broadly support coming to Taiwan’s aid, roughly as much as they support helping South Korea, Japan or Australia. Such enthusiasm may wane, however, if American ships start getting sunk in large numbers. American losses in the CNAS wargame amount to a hundred or so aircraft, dozens of ships and perhaps a couple of carriers. “An aircraft-carrier has 5,000 people on it,” says Mr Murray. “That’s 100 voters in every state of our union. That’s a lot of funerals.”
Fear of such losses might deter an American president from entering the fray. But incurring them might stiffen American resolve. America and its partners can use this dynamic to their advantage, says Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official. If American troops were to disperse in allied countries like Japan and draw on allied support to repel a Chinese attack, China would have to choose between striking a wide range of targets beyond Taiwan, and outraging American and Asian public opinion, or sacrificing military advantage.
Escalation might go even further. The fact that Chinese nuclear missiles can now reach any American city raises the stakes dramatically. “When the bullets really start flying,” says Michael Hunzeker of George Mason University, “the American people, most of whom can’t find Taiwan on a map, will be hard-pressed to say, ‘No, I’m really willing to trade Los Angeles for Taipei.’”
Taiwanese officials acknowledge these grim trends. Even if America is willing to come to Taiwan’s aid, that is no use if it is not capable of doing so, Su Chi, a former secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, has argued. But the logical response, transforming Taiwan’s own defences, is hard when only a fifth of people think war will come. In the sleepy fishing village of Zhuwei, on the north-west coast, an area thought to be a prime landing site for the PLA, tourists eat stir-fried seafood in restaurants as multicoloured fishing vessels bob in the harbour. “The Chinese won’t invade,” says Lin Fu-fun, an airport safety inspector who has come to watch the waves splash on a jagged breakwater. “Our language and culture are the same.” ■
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Strait shooting"
Defending Taiwan is growing costlier and deadlier
Would America have the stomach for such a fight?
Jonas Parker
Hooligan
I guess after all the Taiwan = WWIII posts, I have to ask: what tactical threat is Taiwan to the US?
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan
That scenario, while still remote, is being taken more seriously these days.
By Samson Ellis
Bloomberg
October 7, 2020, 5:00 PM EDT
Updated on October 8, 2020, 5:00 AM EDT
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.
In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.
Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the U.S. and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.
But several forces may push them toward action: President Xi Jinping’s desire to cement his legacy by gaining “lost” territory, falling support among Taiwan’s public for any union with China, the rise of pro-independence forces in Taipei and the U.S.’s increasingly hostile relationship with Beijing on everything from Hong Kong to the coronavirus to cutting-edge technology.
“I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote “The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.” “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.”
Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures, President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in any attack.
Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the U.S. could help out.
On paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels — not to mention its nuclear arsenal.
A Chinese military training complex in Inner Mongolia, shown in this satellite image taken on Sept. 29, includes full-scale replicas of targets such as Taiwan’s Presidential Office Building.
Source: Satellite image 2020 Maxar Technologies
Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food.
Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building.
An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers (80 miles) across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed before a fight for the Penghu archipelago, which sits just 50 kilometers from Taiwan and is home to bases for all three branches of its military. A PLA win here would provide it with a valuable staging point for a broader attack.
As Chinese ships speed across the strait, thousands of paratroopers would appear above Taiwan’s coastlines, looking to penetrate defenses, capture strategic buildings and establish beachheads through which the PLA could bring in tens of thousands of soldiers who would secure a decisive victory.
In reality, any invasion is likely to be much riskier. Taiwan has prepared for one for decades, even if lately it has struggled to match China’s growing military advantage.
Taiwan’s main island has natural defenses: Surrounded by rough seas with unpredictable weather, its rugged coastline offers few places with a wide beach suitable for a large ship that could bring in enough troops to subdue its 24 million people. The mountainous terrain is riddled with tunnels designed to keep key leaders alive, and could provide cover for insurgents if China established control.
Taiwan in 2018 unveiled a plan to boost asymmetric capabilities like mobile missile systems that could avoid detection, making it unlikely Beijing could quickly destroy all of its defensive weaponry. With thousands of surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns, Taiwan could inflict heavy losses on the Chinese invasion force before it reached the main island.
Taiwan’s military has fortified defenses around key landing points and regularly conducts drills to repel Chinese forces arriving by sea and from the air. In July outside of the western port of Taichung, Apache helicopters, F-16s and Taiwan’s own domestically developed fighter jets sent plumes of seawater into the sky as they fired offshore while M60 tanks, artillery guns and missile batteries pummeled targets on the beach.
Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and more than 1 million reservists ready to resist an occupation. Taiwan this week announced it would set up a defense mobilization agency to ensure they were better prepared for combat, the Taipei Times reported.
Other options for Beijing, such as an indiscriminate bombing campaign that kills hundreds of thousands of civilians, would hurt the Communist Party’s ultimate goal of showcasing Taiwan as a prosperous territory with loyal Chinese citizens, Michael Beckley, who’s advised the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence communities, wrote in a 2017 paper.
“The PLA clearly would have its hands full just dealing with Taiwan’s defenders,” Beckley wrote. “Consequently, the United States would only need to tip the scales of the battle to foil a Chinese invasion.”
The potential involvement of the U.S. is a key wild card when assessing an invasion scenario. American naval power has long deterred China from any attack, even though the U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition for establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing. The Taiwan Relations Act authorizes American weapons sales to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”
Taiwanese Apache helicopters release flares during the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Taichung on July 2020. China would aim to quickly neutralize Taiwan’s defenses before it conducts a full-scale amphibious invasion.
Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25. That crisis accelerated the disintegration of the British Empire and signaled the pound’s decline as a reserve currency in favor of the dollar, Dalio said.
“The more of a show the U.S. makes of defending Taiwan the greater the humiliation of a lost war,” he said. “That is concerning because the United States has been making quite a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality.”
China’s Anti-Secession Law is vague on what would actually trigger an armed conflict. Its state-run media have warned that any U.S. military deployment to Taiwan would trigger a war — one of several apparent red lines, along with a move for Taipei’s government to declare legal independence. State broadcaster CCTV recently warned “the first battle would be the last battle.”
Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.
The PLA Air Force released a video in September showing H-6 bombers making a simulated strike on a runway that looked like one at Anderson Air Force Base on Guam, a key staging area for any U.S. support for Taiwan. The Global Times reported that China’s intermediate ballistic missiles such as the DF-26 could take out American bases while its air defenses shoot down incoming firepower.
The DF-26 is showcased during a military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China’s founding, in Oct. 2019. Since it can be armed with nuclear warheads, any indication it would be fired at U.S. targets could lead to a preemptive attack that unleashes a wider war.
Photographer: Koki Kataoka/Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Photo
This is a worry for U.S. military planners. A University of Sydney study warned last year that America “no longer enjoys military primacy” over China and that U.S. bases, airstrips and ports in the region “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict.”
“Beijing’s strategy isn’t just based on undermining Taiwan’s resistance, it’s also a gamble on how the U.S. will approach the cross-strait issue,” Daniel Russel, a former top State Department official under President Barack Obama, said in Taipei on Sept. 8. “The strongest driver of increased Chinese assertiveness is the conviction that the Western system, and the U.S. in particular, is in decay.”
In August, China fired four missiles into the South China Sea capable of destroying U.S. bases and aircraft carriers. Since the DF-26 can be armed with both nuclear and conventional warheads, arms-control experts have worried that any signs China was mobilizing to fire one could trigger a preemptive U.S. strike against Chinese nuclear forces — potentially leading to an uncontrollable conflict.
Whether the world will ever get to that moment largely hinges on political leaders in Beijing and Washington.
Some in the U.S., like Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, wanted the administration to do much more to show it would come to Taiwan’s aid. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued last month that the U.S. should explicitly state it would intervene to deter Xi and reassure allies.
“Above all, Xi is motivated by a desire to maintain the CCP’s dominance of China’s political system,” Haass wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine on Sept. 2 in a piece co-authored with David Sacks. “A failed bid to ‘reunify’ Taiwan with China would put that dominance in peril, and that is a risk Xi is unlikely to take.”
hina’s military said in September that it would defeat Taiwan independence “at all cost.” Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, separately warned that Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was “totally misjudging” the situation.
Taiwanese officials have also said China’s military threat is rising, even though Defense Minister Yen De-fa told lawmakers on Sept. 29 there’s no sign the PLA is amassing troops for an invasion.
“We simply have to be prepared for the worst,” said Enoch Wu, a former officer in Taiwan’s special forces who is now with the New Frontier Foundation affiliated with Tsai’s ruling party. “China is no longer ‘biding its time’ and no longer trying to win hearts and minds.”
Ultimately, Xi would need to order any attack. Last year he said “peaceful reunification” would be best even though he wouldn’t “renounce the use of force.” He called Taiwan’s integration with China “a must for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era” — a key reason he’s used to justify scrapping presidential term limits in becoming China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.
While an invasion carries enormous risks for the party, Xi has shown he will take strong action on territorial disputes. He’s ignored international condemnation in squashing Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp, militarizing contested South China Sea land features and setting up reeducation camps for more than a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.
That record worries analysts like Easton, who wrote the book on China’s invasion threat.
“Taiwan fighting by itself could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” he said. “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril.”
— With assistance by Jing Li, Kari Soo Lindberg, Chloe Whiteaker, and Adrian Leung
www.bloomberg.com
That scenario, while still remote, is being taken more seriously these days.
By Samson Ellis
Bloomberg
October 7, 2020, 5:00 PM EDT
Updated on October 8, 2020, 5:00 AM EDT
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the U.S.
In September, People’s Liberation Army aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked.
Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the U.S. and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.
But several forces may push them toward action: President Xi Jinping’s desire to cement his legacy by gaining “lost” territory, falling support among Taiwan’s public for any union with China, the rise of pro-independence forces in Taipei and the U.S.’s increasingly hostile relationship with Beijing on everything from Hong Kong to the coronavirus to cutting-edge technology.
“I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote “The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.” “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.”
Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures, President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in any attack.
Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the U.S. could help out.
On paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels — not to mention its nuclear arsenal.
A Chinese military training complex in Inner Mongolia, shown in this satellite image taken on Sept. 29, includes full-scale replicas of targets such as Taiwan’s Presidential Office Building.
Source: Satellite image 2020 Maxar Technologies
Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food.
Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building.
An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers (80 miles) across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed before a fight for the Penghu archipelago, which sits just 50 kilometers from Taiwan and is home to bases for all three branches of its military. A PLA win here would provide it with a valuable staging point for a broader attack.
As Chinese ships speed across the strait, thousands of paratroopers would appear above Taiwan’s coastlines, looking to penetrate defenses, capture strategic buildings and establish beachheads through which the PLA could bring in tens of thousands of soldiers who would secure a decisive victory.
In reality, any invasion is likely to be much riskier. Taiwan has prepared for one for decades, even if lately it has struggled to match China’s growing military advantage.
Taiwan’s main island has natural defenses: Surrounded by rough seas with unpredictable weather, its rugged coastline offers few places with a wide beach suitable for a large ship that could bring in enough troops to subdue its 24 million people. The mountainous terrain is riddled with tunnels designed to keep key leaders alive, and could provide cover for insurgents if China established control.
Taiwan in 2018 unveiled a plan to boost asymmetric capabilities like mobile missile systems that could avoid detection, making it unlikely Beijing could quickly destroy all of its defensive weaponry. With thousands of surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns, Taiwan could inflict heavy losses on the Chinese invasion force before it reached the main island.
Taiwan’s military has fortified defenses around key landing points and regularly conducts drills to repel Chinese forces arriving by sea and from the air. In July outside of the western port of Taichung, Apache helicopters, F-16s and Taiwan’s own domestically developed fighter jets sent plumes of seawater into the sky as they fired offshore while M60 tanks, artillery guns and missile batteries pummeled targets on the beach.
Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and more than 1 million reservists ready to resist an occupation. Taiwan this week announced it would set up a defense mobilization agency to ensure they were better prepared for combat, the Taipei Times reported.
Other options for Beijing, such as an indiscriminate bombing campaign that kills hundreds of thousands of civilians, would hurt the Communist Party’s ultimate goal of showcasing Taiwan as a prosperous territory with loyal Chinese citizens, Michael Beckley, who’s advised the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence communities, wrote in a 2017 paper.
“The PLA clearly would have its hands full just dealing with Taiwan’s defenders,” Beckley wrote. “Consequently, the United States would only need to tip the scales of the battle to foil a Chinese invasion.”
The potential involvement of the U.S. is a key wild card when assessing an invasion scenario. American naval power has long deterred China from any attack, even though the U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition for establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing. The Taiwan Relations Act authorizes American weapons sales to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”
Taiwanese Apache helicopters release flares during the annual Han Kuang military exercise in Taichung on July 2020. China would aim to quickly neutralize Taiwan’s defenses before it conducts a full-scale amphibious invasion.
Photographer: I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg
Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25. That crisis accelerated the disintegration of the British Empire and signaled the pound’s decline as a reserve currency in favor of the dollar, Dalio said.
“The more of a show the U.S. makes of defending Taiwan the greater the humiliation of a lost war,” he said. “That is concerning because the United States has been making quite a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality.”
China’s Anti-Secession Law is vague on what would actually trigger an armed conflict. Its state-run media have warned that any U.S. military deployment to Taiwan would trigger a war — one of several apparent red lines, along with a move for Taipei’s government to declare legal independence. State broadcaster CCTV recently warned “the first battle would be the last battle.”
Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.
The PLA Air Force released a video in September showing H-6 bombers making a simulated strike on a runway that looked like one at Anderson Air Force Base on Guam, a key staging area for any U.S. support for Taiwan. The Global Times reported that China’s intermediate ballistic missiles such as the DF-26 could take out American bases while its air defenses shoot down incoming firepower.
The DF-26 is showcased during a military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China’s founding, in Oct. 2019. Since it can be armed with nuclear warheads, any indication it would be fired at U.S. targets could lead to a preemptive attack that unleashes a wider war.
Photographer: Koki Kataoka/Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Photo
This is a worry for U.S. military planners. A University of Sydney study warned last year that America “no longer enjoys military primacy” over China and that U.S. bases, airstrips and ports in the region “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict.”
“Beijing’s strategy isn’t just based on undermining Taiwan’s resistance, it’s also a gamble on how the U.S. will approach the cross-strait issue,” Daniel Russel, a former top State Department official under President Barack Obama, said in Taipei on Sept. 8. “The strongest driver of increased Chinese assertiveness is the conviction that the Western system, and the U.S. in particular, is in decay.”
In August, China fired four missiles into the South China Sea capable of destroying U.S. bases and aircraft carriers. Since the DF-26 can be armed with both nuclear and conventional warheads, arms-control experts have worried that any signs China was mobilizing to fire one could trigger a preemptive U.S. strike against Chinese nuclear forces — potentially leading to an uncontrollable conflict.
Whether the world will ever get to that moment largely hinges on political leaders in Beijing and Washington.
Some in the U.S., like Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, wanted the administration to do much more to show it would come to Taiwan’s aid. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued last month that the U.S. should explicitly state it would intervene to deter Xi and reassure allies.
“Above all, Xi is motivated by a desire to maintain the CCP’s dominance of China’s political system,” Haass wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine on Sept. 2 in a piece co-authored with David Sacks. “A failed bid to ‘reunify’ Taiwan with China would put that dominance in peril, and that is a risk Xi is unlikely to take.”
hina’s military said in September that it would defeat Taiwan independence “at all cost.” Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, separately warned that Tsai’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was “totally misjudging” the situation.
Taiwanese officials have also said China’s military threat is rising, even though Defense Minister Yen De-fa told lawmakers on Sept. 29 there’s no sign the PLA is amassing troops for an invasion.
“We simply have to be prepared for the worst,” said Enoch Wu, a former officer in Taiwan’s special forces who is now with the New Frontier Foundation affiliated with Tsai’s ruling party. “China is no longer ‘biding its time’ and no longer trying to win hearts and minds.”
Ultimately, Xi would need to order any attack. Last year he said “peaceful reunification” would be best even though he wouldn’t “renounce the use of force.” He called Taiwan’s integration with China “a must for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era” — a key reason he’s used to justify scrapping presidential term limits in becoming China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.
While an invasion carries enormous risks for the party, Xi has shown he will take strong action on territorial disputes. He’s ignored international condemnation in squashing Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp, militarizing contested South China Sea land features and setting up reeducation camps for more than a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.
That record worries analysts like Easton, who wrote the book on China’s invasion threat.
“Taiwan fighting by itself could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” he said. “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril.”
— With assistance by Jing Li, Kari Soo Lindberg, Chloe Whiteaker, and Adrian Leung
Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan (Repeat)
That scenario, while still remote, is being taken more seriously these days.
www.bloomberg.com
northern watch
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
Chinese military aircraft again enters Taiwan's southwest ADIZ
17th such incursion by Chinese military into nation's ADIZ in less than a month
By Central News Agency
2020/10/12 09:47
PLA Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft. (MND photo)
A Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Sunday, marking the 17th such incursion by the Chinese military into the nation's ADIZ in less than a month.
According to the Ministry of National Defense (MND), a Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft entered the nation's southwest ADIZ earlier in the day.
In response, Taiwan's military sent aircraft to monitor the Chinese aircraft, issuing radio warnings and mobilizing air defense systems before it left the ADIZ, the MND said.
According to MND records, the incident marked the 17th incursion by Chinese military assets into Taiwan's ADIZ since Sept. 16, a day before the MND began regularly publishing Chinese military movements on its website.
China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, has increased the frequency of its military activities around the island in recent months as cross-Taiwan Strait relations deteriorate due to closer Taiwan-U.S. engagements.
Chinese military aircraft again enters Taiwan's southwest ADIZ | Taiwan News
17th such incursion by Chinese military into nation's ADIZ in less than a month
By Central News Agency
2020/10/12 09:47
PLA Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft. (MND photo)
A Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Sunday, marking the 17th such incursion by the Chinese military into the nation's ADIZ in less than a month.
According to the Ministry of National Defense (MND), a Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft entered the nation's southwest ADIZ earlier in the day.
In response, Taiwan's military sent aircraft to monitor the Chinese aircraft, issuing radio warnings and mobilizing air defense systems before it left the ADIZ, the MND said.
According to MND records, the incident marked the 17th incursion by Chinese military assets into Taiwan's ADIZ since Sept. 16, a day before the MND began regularly publishing Chinese military movements on its website.
China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, has increased the frequency of its military activities around the island in recent months as cross-Taiwan Strait relations deteriorate due to closer Taiwan-U.S. engagements.
Chinese military aircraft again enters Taiwan's southwest ADIZ | Taiwan News
I agree, Sir. The questions are: How soon? How much of dedicated force will be tasked by the CPP? Will other theaters be initiated? And the Biggie: Will the US get actively involved?
I guess that our levels and locations for force projection will also determine CCP’s plans... They can envelope Taiwan from so many angles, directions, and with such numbers, that it will be truly a battle. I worry too, about their special operators, that are either already there, or could soon ingress areas from the sea, and create chaos before the battle even begins. Likewise, decapitation of Taiwan’s leadership by CCP operatives already long in place, is a high probability.
Such a can of worms for the Taiwanese... BUT, We Must Defend Them, or we have no currency with the rest of the world. Additionally, we must rally our allies, to go all out to defeat China- regardless of the cost...
Conventional? Beware the sneaky Chinee... If we have the capability, decapitate their leadership, destroy their military, and prepare to take no prisoners... There must NOT be an Operation Olympic, as planned by the Roosevelt Administration, vis-a-vis the invasion of Japan... In that regard, Mac Arthur was correct... China is a bubbling cauldron that is nearing it’s point of no return, and will explode into a darkness that will engulf much of the world... It must be stopped.
Bright Blessings, danielboon, and Thank-You for your wonderful posts... Thanks too, for keeping us abreast of the situation, and the ever changing dynamics...
May You and Yours Always Be Safe, Well, Happy, and Forever, Free... So Mote It Be!
OldArcher, Witch
It is my personal belief, in the absence of any real knowledge, that any action against Taiwan won't be until after the election. China taking action now would help Trump's reelection - he gets to act tough, emphasizes how he has treated China vs. the way Obama/Biden did, some rally round the flag, etc.
Maybe, exiled2tx... However, the Chinese have their own agenda to which we are not privy to... Perhaps they’re into human sacrifice, going for the entrails of dissidents, versus chickens... Who knows?
When they attack, they will, initially go for subterfuge- then all-out-war...
Bright Blessings,
OldArcher, Witch
When they attack, they will, initially go for subterfuge- then all-out-war...
Bright Blessings,
OldArcher, Witch
That Japan and India are formalizing a defense alliance with others looking to join at the same time the US has been pulling India into a similar relationship indicates a serious change in the status quo very soon...
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
If Biden gets elected kiss the arm sales good-bye
northern watch
TB Fanatic
If Biden is elected the US will not defend Taiwan, expect South Korea, Japan to go nuclear armed on November 3rd. with Taiwan and maybe even Australia not that far behind.
Now there is talk of Hillary Clinton to the role of Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, or a similar high-level cabinet posiiton.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
This is why I watch the prophecy of Dumitri Duduman dangerous times ahead for sure 
danielboon
TB Fanatic
.
China threatens invasion of Taiwan in new video showing military might
.
China threatens invasion of Taiwan in new video showing military might
.
vector7
Dot Collector
View: https://twitter.com/HAvanHeerden/status/1316059155761954816
RT 22secs
View: https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1315903436102103041
View: https://twitter.com/YKWong19/status/1315952117241143298
Australia sees what's coming...
RT 1min
View: https://twitter.com/DoverwoodLee/status/1315912160942284800
View: https://twitter.com/Patriot_350/status/1316008558291369986
RT 22secs
View: https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1315903436102103041
View: https://twitter.com/YKWong19/status/1315952117241143298
Australia sees what's coming...
RT 1min
View: https://twitter.com/DoverwoodLee/status/1315912160942284800
View: https://twitter.com/Patriot_350/status/1316008558291369986
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Gordon Chang: Why a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Would Be a Massive Mistake
From the author: "China may find out, however, that by the time Beijing is ready for war, Taiwan will have cemented relationships with powerful friends, the ones Chinese leaders fear."
October 13, 2020
by Gordon G. Chang
Nationalinterest.org
In an extreme situation, every country has a right to shoot first,” said Shen Dingli of Shanghai’s Fudan University to the New York Times.
Beijing looks like it is once again organizing its house academics to threaten the people of Taiwan, this time to intimidate the United States into not aiding the endangered island republic. Shen preceded his menacing words with a warning to Taiwan’s president. “The United States,” he said, “unfortunately may mislead Tsai Ing-wen to misjudge the strategic situation.”
This month, Beijing has been busy issuing “red lines” and “bottom lines” to America, much like it did in May of last year. Then, in addition to declaring a “people’s war” on the United States, it publicized a phrase it had used in the past before employing force.
People’s Daily in a commentary titled “United States, Don’t Underestimate China’s Ability to Strike Back” stated, “Don’t say we didn’t warn you!”
Americans have been warned, and they should be concerned. As the late American ambassador to Beijing James Lilley was fond of saying, “The Chinese telegraph their punches.”
Almost every policymaker and analyst tells us that Taiwan is the one red line Beijing will act on because it believes the island is an “inalienable” part of China.
Americans, from Nixon and Kissinger, have been far too deferential to China’s view that Taiwan is its 34th province. Even though Taiwan’s formal name is the Republic of China, people there by and large do not self-identify as “Chinese.” In a recent survey, 83.2 percent saw themselves as “Taiwanese only” and 5.3 percent said they were “Chinese only.” The remainder answered “both.”
Taiwan, in fact, has never been formally recognized by the international community as a part of a Chinese state. It was a part of the Qing empire, but the Chinese considered the Qing rulers foreign, and post-World War II arrangements never technically ceded the island to Chiang Kai-shek’s regime.
Nonetheless, most countries have accepted China’s position on Taiwan, and that has led Beijing to demand more. In addition to existing claims to the “blue national soil” of the South China Sea, to Japan’s Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, and to large chunks of northern India, Chinese rulers are now eyeing an additional slice of Tajikistan, Vladivostok and a large portion of the Russian Far East, and Okinawa and the rest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands.
To prevent more territory from becoming “core,” nations are pushing back. This month, for instance, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, when asked by Nikkei Asia whether the United States would defend Taiwan if China “unilaterally” attacked, hinted America would come to the aid of the island.
“Our military has been very active in the region, ensuring that we have a presence so that we can ensure that there is, in fact, a capacity for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said. “These are the kind of things one does, whether it’s Taiwan or the challenge presented to Japan, the United States will be a good partner for security in every dimension.”
That is not the we-will-defend-Taiwan declaration that many hope for, but Washington’s public messaging is getting clearer.
Up to now, the U.S. has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” In other words, Washington does not tell either China or Taiwan what it would do in the case of likely conflict. The rationale is that America should keep Beijing guessing as to whether it will defend Taiwan and, at the same time, discourage Taiwanese from disrupting the “status quo” by declaring “independence” and thereby provoking the Chinese.
Beijing is evidently worried about Trump administration policy. The Global Times, controlled by People’s Daily, issued an article on October 12 stating the policy cannot change because that would “enrage Beijing.” “There is no doubt that Washington is clearly aware of the importance of the Chinese mainland,” the paper declared. “It will not take risks to break its ties with the Chinese mainland due to Taiwan, because the price is too high.”
Strategic ambiguity has worked until now, but the policy has been in place during a period when China, for many reasons, was in no position to invade. Xi Jinping, currently in charge, is an aggressor and may have reasons to lash out. In any event, he has amped up the threats to take Taiwan, issuing Taiwan propaganda at a torrid pace.
China’s apparent belligerence has frightened neighbors, especially two powerhouses, Japan and India.
Japan is Taiwan’s northern neighbor. In fact, Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, Yonaguni, is actually south of Taiwan’s capital of Taipei, and Taiwan’s mountains are visible from the Japanese island on a clear day.
Tokyo, of course, is supportive, albeit quietly, of Taiwan because the defense of the Japanese homeland depends on Taiwan remaining in friendly hands. As an Asian security expert once told me, “Japan will never let China take Taiwan.”
New Delhi does not feel as strongly, but it is slowly tightening ties with Taiwan, in part because it recognizes Taiwan and China’s peripheral waters ultimately affect India’s eastern flank.
As Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told The National Interest, ties between New Delhi and Taipei had been warming over the past few years.
The Chinese incursions into Indian territory in Ladakh this spring and the death of 20 Indian soldiers on June 15 poisoned the Indian government’s view of China. As Paskal notes, “high-profile think tankers are now openly talking about revisiting the ‘one-China policy.’ ”
Moreover, the killings have pushed India closer to the United States and Japan, both of which support Taiwan. As the so-called “Quad” members—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—draw closer in common defense against China, Taiwan should benefit. New Delhi’s de facto representative in Taipei has served in the U.S. and has worked on Quad matters, Paskal points out.
Popular opinion in India supports a sharp move away from Beijing. A local leader of the governing Bharatiya Janata Party, for instance, hung hundreds of Taiwan National Day posters outside the Chinese embassy in New Delhi this week, prompting protests from Beijing and an outpouring of support for Taiwan from Indian citizens. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has recently been active in supporting pro-Taiwan sentiments in India.
As Fudan’s Shen warns, China is ready to “shoot first.” And as Rick Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told The National Interest, “After 30 years of military modernization and buildup, China is almost ready to execute an invasion.”
China may find out, however, that by the time Beijing is ready for war, Taiwan will have cemented relationships with powerful friends, the ones Chinese leaders fear.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.
nationalinterest.org
From the author: "China may find out, however, that by the time Beijing is ready for war, Taiwan will have cemented relationships with powerful friends, the ones Chinese leaders fear."
October 13, 2020
by Gordon G. Chang
Nationalinterest.org
In an extreme situation, every country has a right to shoot first,” said Shen Dingli of Shanghai’s Fudan University to the New York Times.
Beijing looks like it is once again organizing its house academics to threaten the people of Taiwan, this time to intimidate the United States into not aiding the endangered island republic. Shen preceded his menacing words with a warning to Taiwan’s president. “The United States,” he said, “unfortunately may mislead Tsai Ing-wen to misjudge the strategic situation.”
This month, Beijing has been busy issuing “red lines” and “bottom lines” to America, much like it did in May of last year. Then, in addition to declaring a “people’s war” on the United States, it publicized a phrase it had used in the past before employing force.
People’s Daily in a commentary titled “United States, Don’t Underestimate China’s Ability to Strike Back” stated, “Don’t say we didn’t warn you!”
Americans have been warned, and they should be concerned. As the late American ambassador to Beijing James Lilley was fond of saying, “The Chinese telegraph their punches.”
Almost every policymaker and analyst tells us that Taiwan is the one red line Beijing will act on because it believes the island is an “inalienable” part of China.
Americans, from Nixon and Kissinger, have been far too deferential to China’s view that Taiwan is its 34th province. Even though Taiwan’s formal name is the Republic of China, people there by and large do not self-identify as “Chinese.” In a recent survey, 83.2 percent saw themselves as “Taiwanese only” and 5.3 percent said they were “Chinese only.” The remainder answered “both.”
Taiwan, in fact, has never been formally recognized by the international community as a part of a Chinese state. It was a part of the Qing empire, but the Chinese considered the Qing rulers foreign, and post-World War II arrangements never technically ceded the island to Chiang Kai-shek’s regime.
Nonetheless, most countries have accepted China’s position on Taiwan, and that has led Beijing to demand more. In addition to existing claims to the “blue national soil” of the South China Sea, to Japan’s Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, and to large chunks of northern India, Chinese rulers are now eyeing an additional slice of Tajikistan, Vladivostok and a large portion of the Russian Far East, and Okinawa and the rest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands.
To prevent more territory from becoming “core,” nations are pushing back. This month, for instance, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, when asked by Nikkei Asia whether the United States would defend Taiwan if China “unilaterally” attacked, hinted America would come to the aid of the island.
“Our military has been very active in the region, ensuring that we have a presence so that we can ensure that there is, in fact, a capacity for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said. “These are the kind of things one does, whether it’s Taiwan or the challenge presented to Japan, the United States will be a good partner for security in every dimension.”
That is not the we-will-defend-Taiwan declaration that many hope for, but Washington’s public messaging is getting clearer.
Up to now, the U.S. has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” In other words, Washington does not tell either China or Taiwan what it would do in the case of likely conflict. The rationale is that America should keep Beijing guessing as to whether it will defend Taiwan and, at the same time, discourage Taiwanese from disrupting the “status quo” by declaring “independence” and thereby provoking the Chinese.
Beijing is evidently worried about Trump administration policy. The Global Times, controlled by People’s Daily, issued an article on October 12 stating the policy cannot change because that would “enrage Beijing.” “There is no doubt that Washington is clearly aware of the importance of the Chinese mainland,” the paper declared. “It will not take risks to break its ties with the Chinese mainland due to Taiwan, because the price is too high.”
Strategic ambiguity has worked until now, but the policy has been in place during a period when China, for many reasons, was in no position to invade. Xi Jinping, currently in charge, is an aggressor and may have reasons to lash out. In any event, he has amped up the threats to take Taiwan, issuing Taiwan propaganda at a torrid pace.
China’s apparent belligerence has frightened neighbors, especially two powerhouses, Japan and India.
Japan is Taiwan’s northern neighbor. In fact, Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, Yonaguni, is actually south of Taiwan’s capital of Taipei, and Taiwan’s mountains are visible from the Japanese island on a clear day.
Tokyo, of course, is supportive, albeit quietly, of Taiwan because the defense of the Japanese homeland depends on Taiwan remaining in friendly hands. As an Asian security expert once told me, “Japan will never let China take Taiwan.”
New Delhi does not feel as strongly, but it is slowly tightening ties with Taiwan, in part because it recognizes Taiwan and China’s peripheral waters ultimately affect India’s eastern flank.
As Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told The National Interest, ties between New Delhi and Taipei had been warming over the past few years.
The Chinese incursions into Indian territory in Ladakh this spring and the death of 20 Indian soldiers on June 15 poisoned the Indian government’s view of China. As Paskal notes, “high-profile think tankers are now openly talking about revisiting the ‘one-China policy.’ ”
Moreover, the killings have pushed India closer to the United States and Japan, both of which support Taiwan. As the so-called “Quad” members—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—draw closer in common defense against China, Taiwan should benefit. New Delhi’s de facto representative in Taipei has served in the U.S. and has worked on Quad matters, Paskal points out.
Popular opinion in India supports a sharp move away from Beijing. A local leader of the governing Bharatiya Janata Party, for instance, hung hundreds of Taiwan National Day posters outside the Chinese embassy in New Delhi this week, prompting protests from Beijing and an outpouring of support for Taiwan from Indian citizens. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has recently been active in supporting pro-Taiwan sentiments in India.
As Fudan’s Shen warns, China is ready to “shoot first.” And as Rick Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told The National Interest, “After 30 years of military modernization and buildup, China is almost ready to execute an invasion.”
China may find out, however, that by the time Beijing is ready for war, Taiwan will have cemented relationships with powerful friends, the ones Chinese leaders fear.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.
Gordon Chang: Why a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Would Be a Massive Mistake
From the author: "China may find out, however, that by the time Beijing is ready for war, Taiwan will have cemented relationships with powerful friends, the ones Chinese leaders fear."
nationalinterest.org
danielboon
TB Fanatic
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1316234289999228928
TUE OCT 13, 2020 / 3:31 AM EDT
China says will make 'necessary' response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan
The United States should immediately halt all weapons sales to Taiwan, ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a daily news briefing in Beijing.
TUE OCT 13, 2020 / 3:31 AM EDT
China says will make 'necessary' response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan
The United States should immediately halt all weapons sales to Taiwan, ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a daily news briefing in Beijing.
Last edited:
danielboon
TB Fanatic
China releases spying allegations, confessions in new campaign against Taiwan
By Ben Blanchard Reuters
Posted October 14, 2020 2:33 am
China has opened a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan with a series of spying allegations and confessions aired on state television, denounced on the democratic island as entrapment and another reason for people to fear visiting China.
China views Taiwan as its sovereign territory and has stepped up a campaign to assert its claim, including sending fighter jets near the island.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen says the island will not provoke but will defend itself.
READ MORE: Taiwan president hopes to reduce tensions with China
Starting on Sunday evening, Chinese state television has been showing what it says are detained Taiwanese spies who have been operating in China, and confessing to their crimes.
China, under its Thunder-2020 campaign, has cracked hundreds of cases orchestrated by Taiwan’s intelligence forces to “infiltrate and damage” and set up a network of spies, state television said.
The Global Times, a widely read Chinese tabloid run by the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said on Wednesday the revelations were a warning to “Taiwan separatist forces.”
globalnews.ca
By Ben Blanchard Reuters
Posted October 14, 2020 2:33 am
China has opened a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan with a series of spying allegations and confessions aired on state television, denounced on the democratic island as entrapment and another reason for people to fear visiting China.
China views Taiwan as its sovereign territory and has stepped up a campaign to assert its claim, including sending fighter jets near the island.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen says the island will not provoke but will defend itself.
READ MORE: Taiwan president hopes to reduce tensions with China
Starting on Sunday evening, Chinese state television has been showing what it says are detained Taiwanese spies who have been operating in China, and confessing to their crimes.
China, under its Thunder-2020 campaign, has cracked hundreds of cases orchestrated by Taiwan’s intelligence forces to “infiltrate and damage” and set up a network of spies, state television said.
The Global Times, a widely read Chinese tabloid run by the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said on Wednesday the revelations were a warning to “Taiwan separatist forces.”
China releases spying allegations, confessions in new campaign against Taiwan - National | Globalnews.ca
Taiwan says China is framing and entrapping people, and that putting people on television to confess crimes before going to trial is a serious breach of proper legal process.
globalnews.ca
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
China could launch a massive suicide drone swarm from a ship or plane and attack targets in Taiwan
TammyinWI
Talk is cheap
Chinese President Xi Jinping tells troops to focus on 'preparing for war'
Hong Kong (CNN)Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on troops to "put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war" in a visit to a military base in the southern province of Guangdong on Tuesday, according to state news agency Xinhua.
During an inspection of the People's Liberation Army Marine Corps in Chaozhou City, Xinhua said Xi told the soldiers to "maintain a state of high alert" and called on them to be "absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable."
The main purpose of Xi's visit to Guangdong was to deliver a speech Wednesday commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which was established in 1980 to attract foreign capital and played a vital role in helping China's economy become the second-largest in the world.
But the military visit comes as tensions between China and the United States remain at their highest point in decades, with disagreements over Taiwan and the coronavirus pandemic creating sharp divisions between Washington and Beijing.
The White House notified US Congress Monday that it was planning to move ahead with the sale of three advanced weapon systems to Taiwan, according to a congressional aide, including the advanced High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
In a stern response from Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian called on Washington to "immediately cancel any arms sales plans to Taiwan" and cut all "US-Taiwan military ties."
Even though Taiwan has never been controlled by China's ruling Communist Party, authorities in Beijing insist the democratic, self-governing island is an integral part of their territory, with Xi himself refusing to rule out military force to capture it if necessary.
Despite the Chinese government's disapproval, relations between Washington and Taipei have grown closer under the Trump administration. In August, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar became the highest-level US official to visit Taiwan in decades, when he traveled to the island ostensibly to discuss the pandemic.
In response, Beijing increased military drills around Taiwan. Almost 40 Chinese warplanes crossed the median line between the mainland and Taiwan on September 18-19 -- one of several sorties the island's President Tsai Ing-wen called a "threat of force."
In a speech to the RAND Corporation on September 16, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said China "cannot match the United States" in terms of naval power and labeled Beijing a "malign influence."
"(China and Russia) are using predatory economics, political subversion, and military force in an attempt to shift the balance of power in their favor, and often at the expense of others," he told the audience.
In early October, Esper announced his "Battle Force 2045" plan, which calls for an expanded and modernized US Navy of 500 manned and unmanned vessels by 2045.
www.cnn.com
Hong Kong (CNN)Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on troops to "put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war" in a visit to a military base in the southern province of Guangdong on Tuesday, according to state news agency Xinhua.
During an inspection of the People's Liberation Army Marine Corps in Chaozhou City, Xinhua said Xi told the soldiers to "maintain a state of high alert" and called on them to be "absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable."
The main purpose of Xi's visit to Guangdong was to deliver a speech Wednesday commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, which was established in 1980 to attract foreign capital and played a vital role in helping China's economy become the second-largest in the world.
But the military visit comes as tensions between China and the United States remain at their highest point in decades, with disagreements over Taiwan and the coronavirus pandemic creating sharp divisions between Washington and Beijing.
The White House notified US Congress Monday that it was planning to move ahead with the sale of three advanced weapon systems to Taiwan, according to a congressional aide, including the advanced High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
In a stern response from Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian called on Washington to "immediately cancel any arms sales plans to Taiwan" and cut all "US-Taiwan military ties."
Even though Taiwan has never been controlled by China's ruling Communist Party, authorities in Beijing insist the democratic, self-governing island is an integral part of their territory, with Xi himself refusing to rule out military force to capture it if necessary.
Despite the Chinese government's disapproval, relations between Washington and Taipei have grown closer under the Trump administration. In August, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar became the highest-level US official to visit Taiwan in decades, when he traveled to the island ostensibly to discuss the pandemic.
In response, Beijing increased military drills around Taiwan. Almost 40 Chinese warplanes crossed the median line between the mainland and Taiwan on September 18-19 -- one of several sorties the island's President Tsai Ing-wen called a "threat of force."
In a speech to the RAND Corporation on September 16, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said China "cannot match the United States" in terms of naval power and labeled Beijing a "malign influence."
"(China and Russia) are using predatory economics, political subversion, and military force in an attempt to shift the balance of power in their favor, and often at the expense of others," he told the audience.
In early October, Esper announced his "Battle Force 2045" plan, which calls for an expanded and modernized US Navy of 500 manned and unmanned vessels by 2045.
Chinese President Xi Jinping tells troops to focus on 'preparing for war' | CNN
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on troops to "put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war" in a visit to a military base in the southern province of Guangdong on Tuesday, according to state news agency Xinhua.
www.cnn.com
jward
passin' thru
Trump aide urges Taiwan to 'fortify' against Chinese attack
Washington – A top White House official on Friday urged Taiwan to build up its military capabilities to protect against a possible invasion by China, saying Beijing would have that ability in 10 to 15 years.
President Donald Trump’s national security adviser Robert O’Brien told the Aspen Security Forum that a missile attack by China, which regards Taiwan as a rebel province, would be much too destructive.
An amphibious attack, he said, is a possibility, though at the moment beyond China’s capability.
But China could combine that threat with “gray zone” operations, embargoes, harassment and other actions to intimidate the island if Taipei does not build up its defense, O’Brien said.
“What we told our Taiwanese friends is knowing all this, whether there’s an amphibious landing, a missile attack, a gray zone-type operation, they really need to fortify themselves.”
RELATED STORIES
China has stepped up pressure against Taiwan over the past year, sending attack and surveillance aircraft into its airspace and ships near its waters.
Earlier this week, Beijing released video of a military exercise simulating an invasion featuring missiles and amphibious landings.
At the same time, news reports said Taiwan was close to buying missile systems from the United States.
For decades, Taiwan’s security has relied in part on close relations with the United States.
But there is always ambiguity over whether Washington would intervene and defend Taiwan if China attacks.
While China has a large number of missiles pointed at Taiwan, O’Brien said he didn’t think Beijing currently wants to attack the island.
“I don’t know what they would gain from that,” he said.
“If they did that, maybe they would certainly become pariahs internationally for just the wanton destruction of Taiwan.”
Noting China’s massive naval buildup, though, he said: “Maybe in 10 or 15 years, they’d be in better shape to do it.”
Defense News reported this week that the United States is planning to sell several arms systems, including missiles and Reaper drones, to Taiwan.
posted for fair use
www.japantimes.co.jp
- Oct 17, 2020
Washington – A top White House official on Friday urged Taiwan to build up its military capabilities to protect against a possible invasion by China, saying Beijing would have that ability in 10 to 15 years.
President Donald Trump’s national security adviser Robert O’Brien told the Aspen Security Forum that a missile attack by China, which regards Taiwan as a rebel province, would be much too destructive.
An amphibious attack, he said, is a possibility, though at the moment beyond China’s capability.
But China could combine that threat with “gray zone” operations, embargoes, harassment and other actions to intimidate the island if Taipei does not build up its defense, O’Brien said.
“What we told our Taiwanese friends is knowing all this, whether there’s an amphibious landing, a missile attack, a gray zone-type operation, they really need to fortify themselves.”
RELATED STORIES
- Here’s what could happen if China invaded Taiwan
- Taiwan's Tsai eyes regional cooperation to counter Chinese expansion
- China’s insistence that Taiwan isn’t a country starts backfiring
- White House moves forward on three arms sales to Taiwan
China has stepped up pressure against Taiwan over the past year, sending attack and surveillance aircraft into its airspace and ships near its waters.
Earlier this week, Beijing released video of a military exercise simulating an invasion featuring missiles and amphibious landings.
At the same time, news reports said Taiwan was close to buying missile systems from the United States.
For decades, Taiwan’s security has relied in part on close relations with the United States.
But there is always ambiguity over whether Washington would intervene and defend Taiwan if China attacks.
While China has a large number of missiles pointed at Taiwan, O’Brien said he didn’t think Beijing currently wants to attack the island.
“I don’t know what they would gain from that,” he said.
“If they did that, maybe they would certainly become pariahs internationally for just the wanton destruction of Taiwan.”
Noting China’s massive naval buildup, though, he said: “Maybe in 10 or 15 years, they’d be in better shape to do it.”
Defense News reported this week that the United States is planning to sell several arms systems, including missiles and Reaper drones, to Taiwan.
posted for fair use
Article expired
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ThorsHammer
Contributing Member
Trump aide urges Taiwan to 'fortify' against Chinese attack
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Washington – A top White House official on Friday urged Taiwan to build up its military capabilities to protect against a possible invasion by China, saying Beijing would have that ability in 10 to 15 years.
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LMAO...China has that ability NOW, and in 2-3 years, not the delusional 10-15 stated, they will will have amassed far more capabilities. I am expecting China to move within 3 years or sooner.
jward
passin' thru
It would seem so.. 3 years would be nice; often it feels closer to 3 months or days
..I see they're probably testing an air launched hyper sonic weapon now, too.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
It would seem so.. 3 years would be nice; often it feels closer to 3 months or days
..I see they're probably testing an air launched hyper sonic weapon now, too.
As I said on the "The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East" thread, when I read reports testing air launched hyper sonic weapons, I think that the battle for Taiwan cannot be far off.