WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

passin' thru
I have no friends, but my main fear isn't their troops training or equipment, but that silent, deadly creep of communism... it's making headway on the island too, as I understand it; let it go on long enough, and find deep enough purchase, and it'll be like it has been here- they'll win without needing to fire a shot.
 

1-12020

Senior Member
I have no friends, but my main fear isn't their troops training or equipment, but that silent, deadly creep of communism... it's making headway on the island too, as I understand it; let it go on long enough, and find deep enough purchase, and it'll be like it has been here- they'll win without needing to fire a shot.
Isnt that sad.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Imminent invasion of Taiwan: Britain-US emergency meeting on war with China- Bankers' conference in Beijing on sanctions
Eight-year bankers' conference in China


War News 24 / 7
02/05/2022 - 01:30

Columnist: Vassilis Kapoulas

It was no coincidence what the Australian Defence Minister said about an impending conflict with China as it is revealed that the US and Britain proceeded to plan a state of emergency in the event of a war with Beijing because of Taiwan.

Everything indicates that we have entered the final stretch as Beijing convened an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how they could protect the country's assets from U.S. sanctions.


The cause is the impending invasion of Taiwan.

US-UK contingency plans for Taiwan

The US held top-level talks with Britain on how to work more closely together to strengthen the deterrence of Taiwan and explore for the first time contingency plans in the event of a start of war.

Kurt Campbell, the White House's coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, and Laura Rosenberger, the top official of the National Security Council with China as their responsibility, had a two-day meeting in early March on the Taiwan issue with representatives of Britain.

Three people with knowledge of the issue said the U.S. wanted to strengthen cooperation with European allies, such as Britain, over Beijing's increasingly assertive stance toward Taiwan.

The dialogue on Taiwan is intended to complement the more advanced us talks with Japan and Australia as Beijing steps up military activity around Taiwan.

Admiral John Aquilino, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, told the Financial Times last month during a trip to Australia that the war in Ukraine underscored the danger China poses to Taiwan.

Emergency plans – Classified information presented

One of the officials said the meeting on Taiwan was about everything from how the UK could more diplomatically strengthen Taipei to discussions on strengthening deterrence in Asia.

It also included talks on the role Britain would play if the US ended in a war(!) with China over Taiwan.

The Official added that the Biden administration provided some allies with information about Taiwan previously designated as "NOFORN" — a name that prohibits the exchange of information with foreign officials.


A British official said the meeting was "at a high level" and the "most important" discussion among the countries on Taiwan to date. He said it was part of a "deeper policy conversation" that began during the Biden administration.

"Of course, crisis planning was a big part of any such discussion about Taiwan,"
the official added.

Ryan Hash, an expert in Taiwan at the Brukings Institute, said it was smart to increase consultations on Taiwan, both to reduce the chances of war and to prepare for a potential conflict, given the "Ukrainian backdrop."

"It is prudent for U.S. officials to quietly consult with partners on what could be done to avert conflict in the Taiwan Strait and, if necessary, to respond decisively to the challenges to peace and stability there," Hash said.

"Global issue the deterrence of China"

Heino Klink, a former senior Pentagon official in Asia, welcomed the US-Britain consultations on Taiwan.

"Preventing Chinese aggression against Taiwan is in everyone's interest. It's not just an Indo-Pacific issue, it's a global issue," Klink said.

"US military planners do not calculate that Germany or France will send warships or Britain will send an aircraft carrier in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. But when these countries send ships to the South China Sea or pass through the Taiwan Strait, they are sending a strong message to China."

A senior Taiwanese official said Taipei was aware of U.S. efforts to involve more allies in its planning for Taiwan.

"They did it with Japan and Australia and now they're trying to do it with Britain," he said.

Diplomats in three Indo-Pacific countries said the strengthened U.S.-Britain initiative raised U.S. engagement to Taiwan to an unprecedented level.

Liz Trasch, Britain's foreign minister, said NATO should play a role in Asia. "We must prevent threats in the Indo-Pacific by working with allies such as Japan and Australia to ensure that the Pacific is protected," he said. "We must ensure that democracies like Taiwan are able to defend themselves."

China prepares for U.S. sanctions

At the same time, Chinese regulators held an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how they could protect the country's assets abroad from U.S. sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese officials are concerned that the same measures could be taken against Beijing in the event of a regional military conflict or other crisis.

A conference was held with bankers

"The internal conference, held on April 22, included executives from China's central bank and finance ministry, as well as executives from dozens of local and international lenders such as HSBC," an official said.

China's finance ministry said the meeting represented all major foreign and domestic banks operating in China.

They added that the meeting began with comments from a senior treasury official who said the Xi government had been put on alert because of the ability of the US and its allies to freeze the Russian central bank's dollar assets.

Officials and bystanders did not mention specific scenarios, but one possible trigger for such sanctions is believed to be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The invasion of Taiwan the reason

"If China attacks Taiwan, the decoupling of the Chinese and Western economies will be much more serious than Russia, because China's economic footprint touches every part of the world," one of the officials said.

Andrew Collier, chief executive of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong, said the Chinese government was right to be concerned "because it has very few alternatives and the consequences of U.S. economic sanctions are devastating."

Senior regulators, including Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Xiao Gang, who headed the CSRC from 2013 to 2016, asked the bankers present what could be done to protect the nation's assets abroad, especially $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

China's huge dollar holdings range from U.S. treasury bonds of more than $1 trillion to New York office buildings. The state-owned Dajia Insurance Group, for example, owns Waldorf Astoria New York.

"No one in the room could think of a good solution to the problem," said another person briefed on the meeting. "China's banking system is not prepared to freeze its assets in dollars or blockade from the Swift system as the US did in Russia."

HSBC did not respond to a request for comment.

What the bankers suggested – The US risk

Some bankers suggested that the central bank could require exporters to exchange all their foreign exchange revenues for Renminbi (Chinese Yuan) to increase its onshore reserves in dollars. Currently, exporters are allowed to retain a portion of their profits in foreign exchange for future use.

Others suggested a "significant" cut in the $50,000 quota that Chinese nationals are allowed to buy each year for overseas travel, education and other offshore purchases.

When an official asked Chinese bankers if they could differentiate themselves with more yen or assets supported by the euro, the answer was negative with the reasoning that the idea was not practical.

Some bankers present, however, doubted whether Washington could ever afford to cut economic ties with China, given its position as the world's second-largest economy, huge dollar assets and a close trade relationship with the US.

"It is difficult for the U.S. to impose huge sanctions against China," Collier agreed.

"It's like a mutually assured disaster in a nuclear war."

Impending invasion of Taiwan: Britain-US emergency meeting on war with China- Bankers' conference in Beijing on sanctions - WarNews247
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
China ordered a "stress test" due to impending Western sanctions- US: "At any time invasion of Taiwan"
Preparation of regional conflict


War News 24 / 7
05/05/2022 - 14:13

Columnist: Vassilis Kapoulas

"At any time China can start the operation to invade Taiwan," U.S. agencies say. Beijing has ordered comprehensive "stress tests" on the country's banking and financial sector to study the "impending effects" of U.S. sanctions.

Beijing takes it 100% for granted that it will be subject to sanctions and is trying to minimize losses. As it transpires, Britain and the USA have known this for a long time, which is why the recent extraordinary summit on the subject of Taiwan.

U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly informed that from now on "China can at any time launch an operation against Taiwan until the end of Xi Jinping's term."

That's why the Chinese are preparing the country's banking and financial sector for U.S. sanctions as imposed on Russia for the war with Ukraine.

As a reminder, as WarNews247 has revealed, Chinese regulators held an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how they could protect the country's assets abroad from U.S. sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

Beijing ordered 'stress test' – Fears of sanctions intensify

Beijing, reportedly concerned about sweeping Russian-style sanctions from the West, ordered a comprehensive "stress test" to study the impact of a similar scenario on the country's economy.

According to a person with direct knowledge of the matter, an extensive exercise began around the end of February and early March, when western allies imposed unprecedented sanctions against Moscow.

Several key Chinese government agencies – from the banking sector to international trade – were called upon to find solutions in case the West imposed the same embargoes on China.

"Those involved in this exercise are using as a basis the way In which Russia has been treated in order to determine China's own political response in case the West treats it in the same way," the person added.

"This stress test includes a number of methodologies, including modeling."

"Beijing did not specify why it asked its huge bureaucracy to carry out such an exercise. They said it was a 'natural reaction' from Beijing, given its close relationship with Moscow,"
the source said.

Preparation of a regional conflict

But at the extraordinary conference of bankers, Chinese officials said the measures could be taken against Beijing in the event of a regional military conflict or other crisis.

"From Beijing's perspective, if U.S.-led Western allies could take such measures against Moscow, they could do the same in China. Therefore, the leadership needs to know how resilient the country really is," said Tong Zhao, a senior partner at the Beijing-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

However, Edward Fisman, a former adviser to John Kerry on economic sanctions at the US State Department, said that no economy — even China — is immune to the types of economic sanctions the West has imposed against Russia.

"What are the short-term costs for China"

"There is no good alternative in the Western financial system and this is likely to remain so for a long time," he said.

"The future of the economic conflict between the West and China will probably be narrower in scope than what we have seen from the West against Russia.

It will focus on strategic areas – such as cutting-edge technologies and next-generation infrastructure – not on trying to create broad-based economic disruption."


Zhao said the current exercise from Beijing could be an attempt to understand what the short-term cost would be for China if it provided material support to Russia during this conflict.

Recall that on April 22, officials from the Chinese Finance Ministry and the central bank held a meeting with domestic and foreign banks, including HSBC, to discuss how they could protect China's assets abroad if Russian-style sanctions were imposed.

"In recent years, there has been a growing concern among beijing's leadership that a strategic conflict between China and the West may not be a question of whether it will happen, but when it will happen, particularly on the Taiwan issue."

EMERGENCY - China ordered 'stress test' due to impending Western sanctions- US: 'At any time invasion of Taiwan' - WarNews247
 

jward

passin' thru
BAE Systems, Pentagon question reports of howitzer delay for Taiwan
By Mike Yeo, Jen Judson and Joe Gould

May 4, 10:42 AM

GZMJ3QBDIFA5HA3VZ6MAPV6Y5Q.jpg
A U.S. Army M109A6 Paladin howitzer observes fired artillery observation rounds in Morocco during an exercise. (Sgt. 1st Class R.J. Lannom Jr./Army National Guard)
MELBOURNE, Australia, and WASHINGTON — The U.S. government has asked Taiwan to accept a delay in the delivery of mobile artillery systems caused by a production backlog, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. But instead, the island nation is considering alternatives that it could quickly introduce into service.
However, BAE Systems, which manufactures the M109A6 Paladin, told Defense News it has the capacity to build the systems for Taiwan.

The ministry said the request was to defer initial deliveries of the 155mm self-propelled howitzers to 2026. Deliveries were supposed to start in 2023, with the Taipei Times reporting that Taiwan would take delivery of eight Paladins that year, 16 in 2024 and a similar number in 2025.
The U.S. State Department in late 2021 cleared Taiwan to acquire 40 Paladins as well as associated support vehicles and equipment, in a sale potentially worth up to $750 million. Part of that includes nearly 1,700 M1156 precision guidance kits, which converts standard 155mm howitzer shells into satellite-guided shells capable of highly precise artillery attacks.
“BAE Systems is ready to produce and provide M109 Self Propelled Howitzers for Taiwan once a contract has been finalized by the United States Government. Our production capacity can support the needs of the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense without compromising contract commitments with existing customers,” a company spokesperson wrote to Defense News in an email.

The U.S. Army is reducing its planned buy of the Paladin over a three-year period, which makes more room for other orders on the howitzer’s production line. The service plans to buy 79 Paladin howitzers from fiscal 2023 through fiscal 2025, according to recent budget justification documents. That is 54 less than the Army planned to buy across the same time period in its FY21 books, which was the last fiscal year the service released budget numbers across a five-year period.
The Army had planned to buy 16 more howitzers in FY23, 18 more in FY24 and 20 more in FY25, according to the FY21 documents, but the service scaled that back to what appears to be a return to more normal procurement levels of roughly 45 per year in FY26 and FY27 under the FY23 five-year plan.

While some media reports questioned whether the purported delay for Taiwan is due to efforts to supply Ukraine with weapons as it fights off a Russian invasion, Pentagon’s press secretary John Kirby pointed out that security aid is coming from U.S. military stockpiles.
“That is a different method of providing military articles than what is being provided through to Taiwan, and that’s all being done through the State Department,” he said.

Alternatives
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it is considering alternative artillery systems in the wake of the potential delay. These include the truck-mounted M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System made by Lockheed Martin. Taiwan was previously cleared to purchase the HIMARS along with associated Army Tactical Missile Systems.
Taiwan had requested 11 HIMARS and 64 ATACMS, but it’s unclear if Taiwan will now seek additional HIMARS along with the smaller artillery rockets that can be fired by the same system in lieu of the Paladins.

Those 227mm artillery rockets come in both unguided and satellite-guided versions, and are carried in packs of six on the HIMARS.
China lays claim to Taiwan and has vowed to reincorporate the island by force if necessary. The Taiwanese government was founded in 1949 by Chinese Nationalist forces who fled there following defeat on the mainland by the communists in a civil war.
The U.S. is required by the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress in the 1970s, to supply the island nation with weapons needed for self-defense.
About Mike Yeo, Jen Judson and Joe Gould
 

jward

passin' thru
A bit of an uptick in the #, though still not as high as when our sub was(n't) in the area and hit something

國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.
@MoNDefense


18 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW, KJ-500 AEW&C*2, H-6*2, J-11*6, Y-8 EW and J-16*6) entered #Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on May 6, 2022. Please check our official website for more information: https://bit.ly/3LTDiW1
View: https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1522524820449427456?s=20&t=vNzuW_oZDy08E515KH8rAw
 

jward

passin' thru
Japan's PM Kishida warns Ukraine-like invasion of Taiwan by China
Kishida said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine might presage similar events in Taiwan unless Japan and its Indo-Pacific allies respond to a crisis on the self-governing island in a unified manner
Topics
China | Taiwan | Japan
Last Updated at May 7, 2022 09:49 IST



Fumio Kishida, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker and former foreign minister (Photo: Reuters)

Fumio Kishida


Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that the invasion of Ukraine could be replicated in Taiwan by China if leading powers do not respond as one.
Speaking through a translator at a meeting in London, Kishida said that the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns that China might take advantage of the West's military commitments in Eastern Europe to launch a simultaneous move against Taipei, reported Trevor Filseth, writing in The National Interest.

He said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine might presage similar events in Taiwan unless Japan and its Indo-Pacific allies respond to a crisis on the self-governing island in a unified manner.
Kishida argued that the "Group of Seven" (G7) nations--consisting of Japan, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany--needed to establish a clear commitment to unity in Asian affairs.
"Collaboration among countries sharing universal values becomes ever more vital," said Kishida.
"We must collaborate with our allies and like-minded countries, and never tolerate a unilateral attempt to change the status quo by the use of force in the Indo-Pacific, especially in East Asia," he added.

"Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is critical not only for Japan's security but also for the stability of international society," he continued.
"Japan maintains its position to expect a peaceful resolution through dialogue to issues surrounding Taiwan ... and the situation will be watched carefully from that perspective," said the Japanese PM.
Taiwan has been claimed by the government of mainland China since 1949, although the government in Beijing, led by the Chinese Communist Party, has never exercised control over Taiwan.
In recent years, Chinese leaders have repeatedly insisted that Beijing would gain control over the island in the coming decade, although President Xi Jinping has argued in the past that peaceful reunification, rather than conquest, is the course of action "most in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation."

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine--which began on February 24, four days after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics--has raised concerns in Western capitals that China might take advantage of the West's military commitments in Eastern Europe to launch a simultaneous move against Taipei, wrote Filseth.
Consequently, the Taiwanese government has raised its alert level, although there have been no signs of Chinese activity that would indicate an imminent invasion.
(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀
@BonnieGlaser


U.S. Presses Taiwan to Buy Weapons More Suited to Win Against China. Ukraine war increases urgency. My take: "There has been this wake-up call in the Pentagon to make sure Taiwan is serious, and we need to get serious too.”
View: https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1522974631799685122?s=20&t=lGrGLxz6PnD6F4YPk9IUmA
Stingers and Javelins are likely not in the mix. They should consider the 'scorched earth' threat of destroying all (40% of the world's) the chip manufacturing equipment in the event of invasion. Allies will suddenly appear from everywhere.
 
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jward

passin' thru
China says it carried out drills near Taiwan
May 8, 20228:59 PM CDTLast Updated 20 min ago

2-3 minutes


Chinese and Taiwanese printed flags are seen in this illustration taken, April 28, 2022. Picture taken April 28, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

SHANGHAI, May 9 (Reuters) - China's armed forces carried out another round of drills near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People's Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity.

Taiwan has complained for the past two years about frequent Chinese military activity nearby it, mostly concentrated in the southern and southwestern part of the island's air defence identification zone, or ADIZ.
Taiwan's air force scrambled on Friday to warn away 18 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, and reported further incursions on Saturday and Sunday, though with fewer aircraft. read more
The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command said in a statement that naval and air force assets carried out drills from Friday to Sunday to the east and southwest of Taiwan.
The exercises were to "further test and improve the joint combat capability of multiple services and arms", it added, without elaborating.

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said the equipment involved included bombers, fighters and anti-submarine aircraft.
No shots have been fired and the Chinese aircraft have not been flying in Taiwan's air space, but in its ADIZ, a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols that acts to give it more time to respond to any threats.
Japan last week reported eight Chinese naval vessels, including an aircraft carrier, passed between islands in Japan's southern Okinawa chain, to the northeast of Taiwan.
Taiwan had also been carrying out pre-announced missile and other drills off its southern and southeastern coasts last week.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring democratically-ruled Taiwan under its control, and the Taiwan Strait remains a potentially dangerous military flashpoint.
Taiwan's government rejects China's sovereignty claims, saying only the island's 23 million people can decide their future.
Reporting by Shanghai newsroom; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Kim Coghill
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



A bit of an uptick in the #, though still not as high as when our sub was(n't) in the area and hit something

國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.
@MoNDefense


18 PLA aircraft (Y-8 ASW, KJ-500 AEW&C*2, H-6*2, J-11*6, Y-8 EW and J-16*6) entered #Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on May 6, 2022. Please check our official website for more information: https://bit.ly/3LTDiW1
View: https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1522524820449427456?s=20&t=vNzuW_oZDy08E515KH8rAw
 

jward

passin' thru
hmm. A change in our strategic ambiguity policy or... as much as I loathe ambiguity, not sure I wanna go tinkering with Taiwan at the moment. :eek:

[URL='https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3']
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3[/URL]

Update: The U.S. State Department updated the U.S.-Taiwan relations webpage, no longer mentioning "Taiwan is part of China" and "The U.S. does not support Taiwan independence"



Michael.
@Yaanu
5h

Replying to
@EndGameWW3
Hopefully this is legible. It's a comparison between last month's write-up (via Wayback Machine) and the new article.
(PacificPatriot
@PacificPatriot

Right click > open image in new tab in Chrome and it's legible.)


1652177986080.png
 

jward

passin' thru
Reuters
@Reuters


China's foreign ministry slams the United States for changing the wording on the State Department website about Taiwan, saying ‘political manipulation’ will not succeed in changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait https://reut.rs/3yrMr48


hmm. A change in our strategic ambiguity policy or... as much as I loathe ambiguity, not sure I wanna go tinkering with Taiwan at the moment. :eek:

[URL='https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3']
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3[/URL]

Update: The U.S. State Department updated the U.S.-Taiwan relations webpage, no longer mentioning "Taiwan is part of China" and "The U.S. does not support Taiwan independence"



Michael.
@Yaanu
5h

Replying to
@EndGameWW3
Hopefully this is legible. It's a comparison between last month's write-up (via Wayback Machine) and the new article.
(PacificPatriot
@PacificPatriot

Right click > open image in new tab in Chrome and it's legible.)


View attachment 338968
 

jward

passin' thru
China says warned U.S. warship as it transited Taiwan Strait
Reuters




3 minute read
Illustration shows Chinese and Taiwanese flags

Chinese and Taiwanese printed flags are seen in this illustration taken, April 28, 2022. Picture taken April 28, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
SHANGHAI/TAIPEI, May 11 (Reuters) - China's military said on Wednesday that it had monitored and warned a U.S. warship that had sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, a mission that happened shortly after China carried out drills near the island.
The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said the guided-missile cruiser USS Port Royal conducted a "routine" Taiwan Strait transit through international waters "in accordance with international law" on Tuesday, the second such mission in two weeks.

The United States has been carrying out such voyages about once a month, angering China, which views them as a sign of support for Taiwan, the democratically governed island that Beijing views as Chinese territory.
The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command said in a statement that its forces had monitored the ship throughout and "warned" it.
"The United States frequently stages such dramas and provokes trouble, sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces, and deliberately intensifying tensions across the Taiwan Strait," it added.

"Theatre troops maintain high alert at all times, resolutely counteract all threats and provocations, and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."
The U.S. Navy said the ship "transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State".
"Port Royal's transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military flies, sails, and operates anywhere international law allows."

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said the U.S. ship sailed north through the strait, and that the situation in the waterway was "as normal".
Late on Tuesday, the ministry said a single Chinese WZ-10 attack helicopter had briefly crossed the strait's unofficial mid line, which combat aircraft from both sides normally avoid passing through, though China's air force does on occasion do so.
It also reported that two Chinese KA-28 anti-submarine helicopters were spotted in an area roughly halfway between Taiwan's southwestern coast and the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands at the top part of the South China Sea.
China's armed forces carried out another round of exercises near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People's Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity. read more
The guided-missile destroyer USS Sampson sailed through the Taiwan Strait on April 27, which China condemned, saying such missions "deliberately" harm peace and stability. read more
The United State, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is its most important international supporter and arms supplier, making it a constant source of tension between Beijing and Washington.
Reporting by Shanghai newsroom and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Stephen Coates
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

jward

passin' thru
Chinese Z-10 Attack Helicopter Flew Into Taiwan’s Air Defense Zone For First Time
Thomas Newdick

10-13 minutes


A Chinese Z-10 attack helicopter has, apparently, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, or ADIZ, for the first time and crossed the so-called “median line,” an informal boundary running down the center of the Taiwan Strait. The appearance of the attack helicopter, which is operated by both the People’s Liberation Army Ground Force and the Air Force Airborne Corps, marks the latest new Chinese type to enter the ADIZ. It also points to the growing importance of rotary forces around the Taiwan Strait, including the massive Chinese helicopter base that’s strategically positioned to support future operations in the Strait or even a potential invasion of Taiwan.
%E6%AD%A6%E7%9B%B410%E6%A9%9F%E5%90%8C%E5%9E%8B%E6%A9%9F_073861-scaled.jpg

A file photo provided by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, showing a People’s Liberation Army Z-10 similar to that which entered the ADIZ in the Taiwan Strait today. Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense
The Z-10 entered the ADIZ earlier today, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. Also today, a pair of Ka-28 Helix anti-submarine warfare helicopters, a type operated by the People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force, were recorded flying in the southwest corner of the ADIZ, after having taken off from one or more Chinese warships. It’s unclear if the sorties by the WZ-10 were coordinated in any way with those of the Ka-28s, which have appeared in the area before.
%E5%8D%A1-28%E5%8F%8D%E6%BD%9B%E7%9B%B4%E5%8D%87%E6%A9%9F%E5%90%8C%E5%9E%8B%E6%A9%9F_075512.png

An unusually poor-quality file photo of a People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force Ka-28 helicopter provided by the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense. Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense
Crossing the median line is itself not a common occurrence, with the last such incident involving People’s Liberation Army aircraft being on September 19, 2020, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. That event involved a combination of J-16, J-10, and J-11 fighters and coincided with the visit to Taiwan by the U.S. Under Secretary of State Keith Krach. More commonly, Chinese aircraft fly around the median line and into the southwestern part of Taiwan’s ADIZ. It is, however, worth noting that the ADIZ declared by Taiwan covers not only the entirety of the Strait but also portions of mainland China, too, as indicated by the black box in the graphic seen below.
It’s possible that, like the September 19, 2020, incident, there may have been a particular trigger for today’s Z-10 mission. For example, the Ticonderoga class guided-missile cruiser USS Port Royal (CG-73) conducted today what the U.S. Navy described as a “routine Taiwan Strait transit … through international waters in accordance with international law.” This is reportedly the first time that a U.S. Navy cruiser has passed through these waters since early 2020.
The vector for the Z-10, as provided by the Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, shows the attack helicopter flying out over the Taiwan Strait and crossing the median line briefly before turning back toward the mainland. While there is no confirmation where exactly the helicopter was operating from, the location of the flight path suggests strongly that it might have been flying out of the major military heliport in Zhangpu County, Fujian Province. The War Zone has looked in-depth at this facility in the past.
Screen-Shot-2022-05-10-at-6.01.31-PM.png

Taiwan Ministry of National Defense
Work on the heliport, which is located less than a mile from the water’s edge, began in 2019 and it has since been subject to considerable expansion. Situated around 150 miles from Taiwan, within reach of potential rotary assault, it also provides a commanding position for potential military operations directed against various Taiwanese-controlled islands in the Strait: Kinmen County, and Penghu County, and, a little further afield, the Dongsha Islands, which occupy a significant position at the northern end of the South China Sea.
SRL-image-0.jpg

A map showing the general location of the unnamed Chinese heliport, marked in red, in relation to the Kinmen County (to the northeast), Penghu County (to the east in the Taiwan Strait), and the Dongsha Islands (to the southwest), as well as Taiwan itself. Google Maps
As well as a runway that is around 2,140 feet long, the heliport includes extensive flight line and hangarage facilities plus multiple helipads. Based on our earlier analysis, it’s possible that as many as 20 helicopters may operate from here at any one time, although as of early last year, construction work was very much still underway. That number is likely substantially larger now.
PeacefulMission2018-07.jpg

A PLA Z-10 during the Peace Mission-2018 multinational anti-terrorist exercise organized by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Yevgeny Kel/Wikimedia Commons
As it stands, the operational status of the heliport in Zhangpu County — the formal name of which is still unknown — is unclear. It may well be that the base is not yet fully operational but that it’s already supporting flying more limited operations for training or evaluation. With that in mind, it’s possible that the Z-10 seen today is not a permanent fixture there, or at least not yet, and was undertaking a training flight or some kind of operational test work. However, in May last year there were reports of 12 examples of the type at the base, suggesting a more permanent presence:
Previous satellite imagery has also shown Mi-8/17 Hip-series transport helicopters at the base. Attack helicopters, like the Z-10, would be able to provide close escort to Hips and other transport helicopters but potentially also to conduct offensive operations in their own right.
The fact that China can make use of extensive rotary-wing facilities of this kind, in this particular area, is already of significant importance. From here, power can be projected directly across the Taiwan Strait, as part of large-scale airmobile operations, whether aimed against Taiwan itself or its outlying islands.
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A closer look at the runway, flight line, hangars, and helipads at the heliport as of February 18, 2021. Three Mi-8/17-type helicopters are visible on the ramp. Google Earth

The Z-10 would add a powerful new dynamic to this kind of scenario. As an advanced attack helicopter, it adopts the familiar tandem two-seat crew layout as found on Western rotorcraft of this type. Entering Army Aviation service in 2010, the Z-10 is typically armed with eight KD-9 or KD-10 anti-tank guided missiles, as well as a 23mm chain gun and rocket pods. Other options include PL-90 air-to-air missiles, plus external fuel tanks to extend range. The nose accommodates forward-looking infrared and TV sensors, a laser rangefinder and designator, and the helicopter features a comprehensive self-defense suite.
Z-10A attack helicopters from the People’s Liberation Army Ground Force during a live-fire exercise:

Although operated by the Army, the Z-10s have been used in amphibious exercises since at least 2014, including flying from larger assault ships. Indeed, as part of a wider People’s Liberation Army campaign against Taiwan, it’s likely that Z-10s would be expected to operate from mainland bases, dispersed sites, warships, captured islands, as well as rapidly established forward locations.
Once again, we can’t be sure that the Z-10 that entered the ADIZ today was indeed operating from the Zhangpu County heliport — it, too, may also have been flying from a warship’s flight deck, or from one of the other airfields in the region.
It’s also worth recalling that Taiwan, too, has not insignificant attack helicopter forces that it could bring to bear to help repulse an invasion. The Republic of China Army, or ROCA, is spearheaded by 29 advanced AH-64E Apache Guardians, supplemented by around twice that number of AH-1W SuperCobras. OH-58D Kiowa Warriors, mainly used for scouting, can also be armed. The end result is a notably powerful battlefield helicopter component that the PLA will likely seek to offset by fielding Z-10s and other advanced rotorcraft.
ROCA_Sergeants_Unloaded_Missile_on_AH-1W_543_and_Taking_it_into_Box_20140531a-1-scaled.jpg

ROCA ground crew unload rockets from an AH-1W during an exercise at the Army Officer School. 玄史生/Wikimedia Commons
With U.S. officials now talking more openly about the growing threat posed by China’s strategic ambitions in the wider Asia Pacific region, the Taiwan Strait remains a critical flashpoint. Indeed, during his tenure as commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), Adm. Phil Davidson told Congress last year that he anticipated a Chinese move against Taiwan “in the next six years.”
However, the fact that the attack helicopter is now operating over the Strait is still notable, especially in view of the particular capabilities that the Z-10 could bring to bear in amphibious operations here. Today’s mission also demonstrates the increasing variety of Chinese military aircraft that are now found in and around this strategic area, including multiple fighter jets, bombers, aerial refueling tankers, anti-submarine and intelligence-gathering types.
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Composition and flight paths of the 52 aircraft within a single wave that entered the ADIZ last October 4. This was the biggest such incursion in recent times. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense
With Taiwan officially viewed by China as a rogue province, ambitions to assert control over it at some point in the future are hardly a secret. To what degree such a move would involve a military invasion in the traditional sense remains more questionable.
But with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen having raised the possibility of pursuing changes in Taiwan’s constitution that could pave the way toward a formal declaration of independence, tensions with Beijing have increased in recent years.
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A Republic of China Air Force F-16 fighter jet takes off armed with live AGM-84 Harpoon missiles, as well as air-to-air missiles. This would be among the assets used by Taiwan to defend against an amphibious invasion from the mainland. CHIANG YING-YING/AP

Against this backdrop, China has been ramping up its maritime and air activities in the Strait, while Taiwan has sought to reinforce its defenses, with a particular eye on fending off an amphibious assault. The U.S. military, too, has been increasingly active in and around the Strait.
Taken together, the heliport in Zhangpu County and the appearance of a first Z-10 in the Taiwan Strait point to Beijing’s continued efforts to expand its capabilities in this key area. By stationing helicopters close to the Strait, and operating over it, including more offensive-oriented helicopter gunships like the Z-10, China is increasing its options should it pursue a military offensive to take Taiwan or some of its outlying islands.
Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
China surrounds Taiwan for massive invasion ‘rehearsal’ drills

Aircraft Carrier Liaoning (Baycrest/WikiCommons)
MAY 10, 2022 RYAN MORGAN
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The Chinese military deployed forces all around the island of Taiwan over the weekend in a set of large-scale military drills that one Chinese military analyst called a “rehearsal of possible real action.”
On Monday, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced its Eastern Theater Command organized maritime, aerial, conventional missile and other forces around Taiwan and carried out drills around the island from Friday to Sunday. The Eastern Theater Command said the drills were intended “to test and improve the joint operations capability of multiple services and arms.”

While Taiwan governs itself as an independent nation, China considers the island a part of its territory and Chinese officials have repeatedly discussed “reunification” with the island, including by means of military force.
The Chinese state-run Global Times publication reported maritime, aerial, conventional missile and “other forces” participated in the drills around Taiwan. During the drills, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier deployed east of the island while a large number of Chinese aircraft and warships carried out drills to the island’s west.

The Ministry of National Defence for the Republic of China (the formal name of the Taiwanese government) documented several instances of Chinese military aircraft entering its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the course of the three-day exercise. 12 Chinese fighter jets, two bombers and four other Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ on Friday. Two bombers and three other aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ on Saturday. Two more aircraft entered the ADIZ on Sunday. China flies military aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ on a near-daily basis.
Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military analyst told the Chinese state publication that the PLA’s drills were “like a rehearsal of possible real action.” Song noted the participation of air and naval forces, but noted the seeming lack of amphibious landings and actions by ground forces during the drills.
“In preparation of and a possible real action of military conflict in the Taiwan Straits, all PLA forces will play their roles, as they will surround the entire island, seal it off and launch effective strikes,” Song said according to Global Times.

Song also reportedly said “by having the Liaoning aircraft carrier group positioned east of Taiwan, the PLA not only cuts off possible reinforcements from foreign interference forces, but also launches attacks on military bases east of the Taiwan island, and intercepts any escape attempts from secessionist forces.”
The PLA appeared to conduct the drills in response to recent U.S. interactions with the island. Data from USNI News’ naval fleet tracker indicates the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was active near Taiwan on May 2.
Song reportedly predicted “more training courses will be added, more types and a larger number of equipment will be deployed, and more frequent drills will take place if Taiwan secessionists and external interference forces do not stop.”
 

danielboon

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China Says Warned U.S. Warship as It Transited Taiwan Strait


By Reuters
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May 10, 2022, at 7:32 p.m.
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China Says Warned U.S. Warship as It Transited Taiwan Strait
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FILE PHOTO: The guided missile cruiser USS Port Royal sails through the Pacific Ocean on December 13, 2005. REUTERS/Zack Baddorf/U.S. Navy photo/Handout (UNITED STATES).REUTERS
SHANGHAI/TAIPEI (Reuters) -China's military said on Wednesday that it had monitored and warned a U.S. warship that had sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, a mission that happened shortly after China carried out drills near the island.
The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet said the guided-missile cruiser USS Port Royal conducted a "routine" Taiwan Strait transit through international waters "in accordance with international law" on Tuesday, the second such mission in two weeks.
The United States has been carrying out such voyages about once a month, angering China, which views them as a sign of support for Taiwan, the democratically governed island that Beijing views as Chinese territory.
The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command said in a statement that its forces had monitored the ship throughout and "warned" it.
"The United States frequently stages such dramas and provokes trouble, sending wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces, and deliberately intensifying tensions across the Taiwan Strait," it added.
 

jward

passin' thru
Chinese threat to Taiwan 'critical' from now to 2030: U.S. official
05/11/2022 03:30 PM

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A Chinese WZ-10 Attack helicopter. An incursion of Taiwan's ADIZ by a same type of the aircraft was recorded Tuesday. Photo: Ministry of National Defense
Washington, May 10 (CNA) The threat posed by China to Taiwan between now and 2030 is "critical," Avril Haines, the United States director of national intelligence, said Tuesday while testifying on worldwide threats at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
"I think it's fair to say that it's critical, or acute," Haines said, when she was asked by Senator Josh Hawley if she viewed the threat facing Taiwan to be acute between now and 2030.
"It's our view that they [China] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention," Haines said, without elaborating.
She also believed that Beijing was closely watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started more than two months ago, but said it was unclear what lessons China might have learned since then.
Whatever those lessons may be could affect China's plan toward Taiwan, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine had not accelerated Beijing's plan vis-a-vis Taiwan, Haines said, citing intelligence assessments.

Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, echoed Haines' views, saying he was "not seeing anything that would tell me that they're [China] thinking about trying to take advantage of this time."
"We're not really sure what lessons Xi Jinping is taking away from this conflict right now. We would hope that they would be the right ones," Berrier said.
He later added that he hoped the Chinese leader would come to realize that an invasion in the Taiwan Strait would be difficult, dangerous and highly risky.
Both Berrier and Haines agreed that China would rather pursue its unification goal through peaceful means than resorting to force, but argued that Taiwan still needed to be prepared to defend itself militarily.
Berrier said the U.S. should engage with Taiwan's military and leadership "to help them understand what this conflict has been about, what lessons they can learn," referring to Ukraine's resistance against Russian attacks.
The U.S. should also help Taiwan grasp "where they should be focusing their dollars on defense and their training," Berrier said.
(By Chiang Chin-yeh and Teng Pei-ju)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Satellites "caught" China preparing a blitzkrieg in USA: They will sweep bases, ships & Taiwan!
Chilling findings


War News 24 / 7
12/05/2022


Article writer: Vassilis Kapoulas

Facing an unprecedented discovery lies the Pentagon and America's political leadership. Military satellites spotted the Chinese Army practicing in terrifying detail on long-range ballistic strikes (ASBM) against U.S. aircraft carriers, U.S. bases in Japan -Guam, against Taiwan and the U.S. Fleet


China set up an entire network with mock-up targets to prepare its Army for war with the US. The details are chilling. The Chinese are practicing precision strikes at a breakneck pace so as not to allow the U.S. Navy to react.

Why the Americans have now released this information is a question. They seem to have known this for a long time.

They set up a whole network with mock-up targets!

Satellite images show that China is operating on missile strikes against Taiwan, Guam and the US Fleet.

According to recent satellite images, the Chinese army is improving its training on anti-ship missile attacks as it deploys on targets resembling from aircraft carriers to smaller ships and naval bases.

Satellite images show that the Chinese have set up a training base in Xinjiang's remote Taklamakan Desert. There they have created a network of mock-ups showing a ship moored at a naval base resembling one in northeastern Taiwan and other targets in Guam!

They train intensively on American Goals!

The U.S. Naval Institute's (USNI) news website reported that new satellite photos show that China is building large-scale targets along the desert, including models of destroyers and piers.

One of the new targets – a model of a destroyer and a pier – was built in December, just 13 kilometers (eight miles) southeast of an ornate aircraft carrier model.


In February that target was destroyed by a test rocket, according to HI Sutton, the author of the USNI article.

Another similar naval base, built in 2018, about 310 kilometers (190 miles) southwest of the aircraft carrier's original layout, was found by Damien Symons, an independent defense analyst, Sutton added.

In 2017, the images appeared to show models of U.S. bases in Japan, the military newspaper Stars and Stripes reported.

They will attack with hypersonic ballistic missiles

Sutton said the nature, location and blows to the mock-ups suggest that the targets are intended for ballistic missile attacks.

China has developed at least two types of hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles, the DF-21D and DF-26.

The former is known as a "carrier-killer", while the second was dubbed the "Guam Express" due to its range of up to 5,000 km (3,000 miles) – enough to reach the U.S. overseas territory, which is home to a large military base.

Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan's Naval Academy in Kaohsiung, said he spotted a layout that looks a lot like the Suao naval base in Yilan County in northeastern Taiwan.

The materials, layout and objectives

The nature, location and strikes at these sites suggest that the targets are intended to test ballistic missiles against ships (ASBM).

China is known to develop many ASBM missiles. Two types, the DF-21D and DF-26 are fired by terrestrial platforms. The H-6 bomber carries another missile, unknown until now. And there is now confirmation that the Renhai Class Class Type-055 cruiser can launch a smaller one, temporarily identified as YJ-21.

Damien Symon said there are signs of advanced targeting.

The layout of the targets is very calculated," he said. "The orientations, shapes and sizes are consistent with many goals. There is nothing accidental in these models."

Goals seem to be formed by placing metal sheets on the ground.

"This is different material from piers and buildings," Symon adds. "It may reflect heat or radar differently, this can also give us an indication of the complex systems and effort behind these experiments."

The target of the naval base destroyed in February was similar to the one Symon found. It's almost a copy of the older target, he said.

The targets in Taiwan – Where to strike

"I tried to compare [the layout] of the U.S. naval bases in Yokosuka and Sesabo [in Japan] and Subic Bay [in the Philippines], but the naval port of Suao is the one that is most similar," Lu said, adding the target ship to the mock-up is the Kidd class destroyer at taiwan's naval base.

"The mock-up and the exercise plans suggest that the Chinese Navy's warships simulate precision strikes to hit targets at both the Guam naval base and the military port of Swao with the YJ-21 anti-ship missile."

Collin Koh, a researcher at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, said U.S. aircraft carrier combat teams, amphibious groups and force rallies in Guam, which is the advancing military hub outside the first island chain, are a key target for China's People's Liberation Army missiles.

Suao is a strategic port designed to keep Taiwan's access to maritime supply chains open in times of war, so Koh said it would also be a high-priority target of Chinese missiles.

"The PLA will launch its wartime missile attack targeting Taiwan's key facilities – including not only air bases, command and control centers, warehouses but also naval bases," he said.

"Suao is located on the east coast of Taiwan, and has a certain degree of strategic depth, it is less vulnerable than the Keelung which is another key hub of the Taiwanese Fleet. Keelung is located on the west coast just across the strait and therefore more exposed to PLA missile strikes."

EMERGENCY- Satellites "caught" China preparing a blitzkrieg in USA: They will sweep bases, ships & Taiwan! - WarNews247
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
China blockade in US-Japan: They surrounded Taiwan - 100 aircraft takeoffs from "Liaoning"- They declared "No-Fly Zone" and "No-Sail Zone"
Great military mobilization


War News 24 / 7
16/05/2022 - 00:43

Columnist: Vassilis Kapoulas

China is very close to launching a military offensive against Taiwan. For the first time he mobilized the aircraft carrier Liaoning with his combat team which was stationed between Japan and Taiwan in order to block possible American or other movements.
For days now the Navy, Air Force, Army and Chinese missile forces have been conducting major military exercises - "rehearsal of attack" in Taiwan, which has raised alarm bells in the US and Japan.

Specifically
  • A short while ago China declared "No-fly zone and "No-sail zone" in the East China Sea. The Chinese will either continue the exercises or proceed to a missile test.
  • The aircraft carrier Liaoning with the combat team proceeded to rehearse an attack in Taiwan from the east side. Specifically, it took a fighting position between Japan and Taiwan, taking off more than 100 aircraft in 6 days.
  • At the same time, a large number of Chinese aircraft and warships carried out exercises in the west of the island.
  • We recall that satellite images showed that China is operating on precision missile strikes against Taiwanese targets.
  • In addition, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced that the Eastern Command is mobilizing all involved and available units and is proceeding with the deployment of naval, air and missile forces around Taiwan. This was followed by exercises around the island from Friday to Sunday. The Eastern Command stressed that the exercises were intended "to test and improve the capacity for joint operations of many services and weapons".

"Great rehearsal of attack"

12 fighters, two bombers and four other Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense reconnaissance zone (ADIZ) during the three-day exercise. Two bombers and three other aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on Saturday. Two more aircraft entered ADIZ on Sunday.

Song Zhongping, a military analyst, told Chinese state media that the PLA's exercises were "like a rehearsal of possible real action."

Song noted the participation of air and naval forces, but noted the apparent lack of landing forces during the exercises.
"In the preparation and a possible real military conflict action in the Taiwan Strait, all PLA forces will play their roles as they will encircle the entire island, seal it and launch effective strikes," Song said.

Song also said that "by getting the Liaoning aircraft carrier group to be stationed east of Taiwan, the PLA is not only cutting off possible reinforcements from foreign intervention forces, but also launching attacks on military bases east of the island of Taiwan and intercepting any attempt by separatist forces to escape."

Song predicted that "more training courses will be added, more types and a larger number of equipment will be deployed, and more exercises will be carried out if Taiwan's separatists and external forces do not stop."

First-time invasion by an attack helicopter Z-10

It is worth noting that the Chinese attack helicopter Z-10 entered taiwan's air defense reconnaissance zone (ADIZ) for the first time and crossed the so-called "midline", an informal border that crosses the center of the Taiwan Strait.
The emergence of the attack helicopter, with which both the land forces of the People's Liberation Army and the Airborne Airborne Corps of the Air Force are operating, (called the WZ-10) marks the latest new Chinese type to enter this sensitive part of ADIZ.

It also highlights the growing importance of helicopter squadrons around the Taiwan Strait, including the huge Chinese helicopter base that is strategically positioned to support future operations in Taiwan.

Over 100 aircraft takeoffs from the aircraft carrier Liaoning in 6 days

The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning has spent most of the last two weeks operating in waters south of Japan and within its Exclusive Economic Zone.

The aircraft carrier Liaoning was accompanied by the Type 055 class Nanchang cruiser, with three Type 052D destroyers, a Type 052C destroyer, a Type 054A frigate and an unknown Type 901 refueling ship.

Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said tuesday that the Chinese People's People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Navy aircraft carrier Liaoning hosted more than 100 aircraft outings in six days.

Chinese fighters and helicopters took off and landed on the aircraft carrier Liaoning much more than 100 times from May 3 to Sunday, when the naval group was operating about 160 kilometers southwest of Okidaitojima and 150 south of Ishigaki Island, Japanese Defense Minister Kishi said at a news conference.

This number proved the high level of training of the crew of the Chinese aircraft carrier and showed that the combat team is ready for real operations.

Concern in Japan

The move could be part of the Chinese military's efforts to strengthen the aircraft carrier's operational capability and enhance its ability to conduct operations in more remote sea and air areas, Kishi said, noting that the Japanese government "had to monitor the situation with concern" because it occurred "near japan's southwestern islands and Taiwan."

The exercises of the aircraft carrier Liaoning team are intended to block any movement of Taiwanese forces while deterring US and Japanese forces.

"It is interesting to see the total number of aircraft costs during the exercises, as it reflects the aircraft carrier's high levels of training and combat readiness," Japanese experts said.

"More than 100 aircraft exits in six days is a decent number for exercises," said Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military expert.
"But it's definitely not Liaoning's maximum ability, because in the exercises, it could experiment with different types of tactics, improve coordination or teach new pilots, so in real combat, one would expect Liaoning to show even higher take-off rates," Fu added.

Compared to American aircraft carriers that use catapults to launch aircraft, the Chinese aircraft carrier has inevitable drawbacks in terms of aircraft take-off rate.

U.S. and Japan forces sent

Japan sent the JS Izumo helicopter to monitor the Chinese military exercise. The U.S. Navy is also conducting exercises in the region and closely monitoring the PLA's Chinese Navy.

The USS Abraham Lincoln is also operating in the area in the Philippine Sea. In addition, the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is located in the Iwo Jima for exercises involving five types of aircraft, including super hornet fighter jets.

U.S., Japan and China converge in the Western Pacific....

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China blockade in US-Japan: They surrounded Taiwan - 100 aircraft takeoffs from "Liaoning" - They declared "No-Fly Zone" and "No-Sail Zone" - WarNews247
 
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jward

passin' thru
China Cautions U.S. Over Cost of 'Bad Faith' Policy on Taiwan

The Chinese government has accused the United States of acting in "bad faith" for continuing to back Taiwan, after senior American officials continued to draw relevant lessons for Asia from Russia's protracted war in Ukraine.
Adm. Michael Gilday, the U.S. Navy's chief of naval operations, endorsed a strategy of deterrence by denial. He told a think tank event on Tuesday that Taipei, like Kyiv, could put up a credible defense by acquiring the right types of weapons.
"That is a big lesson learned and a wakeup call, particularly with respect to not only having the right kit, but are people trained to use it the right way?" said Gilday, who appeared next to top uniformed officers from the Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Coast Guard and Space Force.

"That shouldn't be lost on us with respect to Taiwan," he said at the forum hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Earlier, Gen. Charles Brown, the Air Force chief of staff, said a conflict in Asia would pose its own unique geographic challenges to U.S. forces in the Pacific: "You're not going to get in there quickly or easily after the bullets begin to fly."
Ukraine's resistance has shown "the will of the smaller nation to fight" will also be a factor, said Brown.
China Protests U.S.'s Taiwan Policy

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin attends a regular press briefing in Beijing on July 24, 2020. Wang accused the U.S. of acting in “bad faith” for its continued support of Taiwan, at a media briefing on May 18, 2022. GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images
China, which maintains a decades-long claim to Taiwan despite having never governed the democratic island, said on Wednesday that it "firmly opposes" the U.S. officials' remarks, which China described as interference in its internal affairs.

Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, went on to accuse the U.S. of contradicting itself by "recognizing Taiwan is a part of China on the one hand, but on the other hand playing up the threat of the mainland's invasion of Taiwan."
"Acting in bad faith will not only harm one's image, but will also incur a corresponding cost," Wang said at a regular press conference in Beijing on Wednesday. The official said it called into question the seriousness and validity of U.S. commitments to its "one China" policy.

Read more

Wang's remarks appeared to be an intentional misreading of the U.S. "one China" policy, which recognizes Beijing as the sole legal government of China, but only acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China.
Officially, Washington "takes no position on sovereignty over Taiwan," a State Department spokesperson told Newsweek last month, "only that cross-strait issues are resolved peacefully according to the will and best interests of the people on Taiwan."

Wang also protested the State Department's recent decision to remove select language from its website's "fact sheet" about Taiwan, including a line that clarified the U.S. doesn't support Taiwan's independence.
Ned Price, the department's spokesperson, said the changes didn't indicate a shift in U.S. policy on Taiwan. However, his comments suggested the update may have been a response to frequent misinterpretations by Beijing.
"I think we care most about ensuring that our relationships around the world are reflected accurately in our fact sheets. I don't think we're as concerned as to what other countries might latch onto in an effort to create a pretense," Price said at a May 10 press briefing.

 

jward

passin' thru
Massive Drone Swarm Over Strait Decisive In Taiwan Conflict Wargames
Air Force and independent think tank simulations show giant drone swarms are key to defeating China’s invasion of Taiwan.
by
Joseph Trevithick
May 19, 2022 3:52 PM

An artist's conception of a drone swarm overlaid on a map of Taiwan.

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Wargames that the U.S. Air Force has conducted itself and in conjunction with independent organizations continue to show the immense value offered by swarms of relatively low-cost networked drones with high degrees of autonomy. In particular, simulations have shown them to be decisive factors in the scenarios regarding the defense of the island of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

Last week, David Ochmanek, a senior international affairs and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development during President Barack Obama's administration, discussed the importance of unmanned platforms in Taiwan Strait crisis-related wargaming that the think tank has done in recent years. Ochmanek offered his insight during an online chat, which you can watch in full below, hosted by the Air & Space Forces Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

At least some of RAND's work in this regard has been done in cooperation with the Air Force's Warfighting Integration Capability office, or AFWIC. Last year, the service disclosed details about a Taiwan-related wargame that AFWIC had run in 2020, which included the employment of a notional swarm of small drones, along with other unmanned platforms.
"I’m sure most everybody on this line has thought extensively about what conflict with China might look like. We think that, as force planners, we think that an invasion of Taiwan is the most appropriate scenario to use because of China’s repeatedly expressed desire to forcibly reincorporate Taiwan into the mainland if necessary and because of the severe time crunch that would be associated with defeating an invasion of Taiwan," Ochmanek offered as an introduction to RAND's modeling. "U.S. and allied forces may have as few as a week to 10 days to either defeat this invasion or accept the fait accompli. And the Chinese understand that if they’re to succeed in this, they either have to deter the United States from intervening or radically suppress our combat operations in the theater."

Ochmanek explained that the Chinese military has amassed a wide array of capable anti-access and area denial capabilities in the past two decades or so that would be brought to bear either to deter or engage any American forces, and their allies and partners, that might seek to respond to an invasion of Taiwan. This includes a diverse arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that could be used to neutralize U.S. bases across the Pacific region, anti-satellite weapons to destroy or degrade various American space-based assets, and dense integrated air defense networks bolstered by capable combat aircraft, among other things.
eastern-theater-pla.jpg

An annotated map from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency that provides a very rudementary look at the forces China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has arrayed just in areas of the mainland opposite Taiwan. DOD
"With all of this, our forces are going to be confronted with the need to not just gain air superiority, which is always a priority for the commander, but to actually reach into this contested battlespace, ...and find the enemy and engage the enemy’s operational center of gravity – those hundreds of ships carrying the amphibious forces across Strait, the airborne air assault aircraft carrying light infantry across the Strait," he continued. There will be a need to "do that even in the absence of air superiority, which is a very different concept of operations from what our forces have operated with in the post-Cold War era."
taiwan-straight-missiles.jpg

An annotated map Defense Intelligence Agency showing the relative ranges of various Chinese surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missile systems in the context of the Taiwan Strait. DOD
Those operational realities present immense challenges for the U.S. military in responding to a potential future Chinese invasion of Taiwan. U.S. military wargames exploring potential cross-strait crisis scenarios in recent years has more often than not, to put mildly, produced less than encouraging results when it comes to the performance of the American side.
Ochmanek says that modeling that RAND has done, including simulations conducted in cooperation with the Air Force, shows that large numbers of unmanned aircraft, especially relatively small and inexpensive designs capable of operating as fully-autonomous swarms using a distributed "mesh" data-sharing network, have shown themselves to be absolutely essential for coming out on top in these wargames.

The former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense outlined one broad, but still detailed scenario for how such a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) would be employed in the defense of Taiwan:
"We're doing some simulations that capture scenarios in which we’re trying to rapidly sink that invasion fleet in the Strait. We’re also trying to clear the skies of PLA [People's Liberation Army, the Chinese military] fighters, transports, and attack helos, [and] transport helos. So, think of this. Imagine 1,000 unmanned UAVs over Taiwan and over the Taiwan Strait. They are not large aircraft, but they are flying at high subsonic speed. You can imagine making their radar cross section indistinguishable from that of an F-35. And the UAVs are basically out in front. They’re doing the sensing mission. Manned aircraft are kind of hanging back. Imagine now being an SA-21 [S-400 surface to air missile system] operator on the mainland of China or on one of the surface action groups trying to project [power], your scopes are flooded with things that you gotta kill. If you don’t kill those sensors, we’re gonna find you. And if we find you, we’re gonna kill you. So, A, we’re creating defilade if you will, camouflage, for the manned aircraft to hide behind.

B, we’re potentially exhausting the enemy’s magazines of expensive SAMs, and on the right side of the cost-exchange ratio. C, you could put some jammers on a few of these UAVs, as well, to further suppress the effectiveness of the SAMs. And then, the key is, these UAVs create a sensing grid that tells you where the targets are on the surface, where the targets are in the air, so that the F-35s, F-22s can conduct their engagements passively. You never have to turn on your radar. You know what that means for survivability. So, we call these UAVs the pilot’s friend.
Now, I know there’s culturally there may be some sense of competition between manned and unmanned and so forth … from an operational perspective we do not see a downside in terms of the synergy between manned and unmanned in this model."
What Ochmanek laid out are exactly the kinds of significant advantages an autonomous drone swarm has the potential to offer in terms of operational flexibility, as well as cost, over manned aircraft, something that The War Zone regularly highlights. Since the individual drones in an autonomous swarm are designed to collaborate with each other, this means that each individual platform does not automatically have to be configured to perform all of the desired missions that the group is collectively expected to carry out.

If a single unmanned aircraft only has to act as a sensor node, weapons truck, jammer, or datalink relay, among other things, it then also opens up the option to make that platform smaller and cheaper than it would be if it had to be a more exquisite multi-role platform. Of course, as Ochmanek himself points out, a swarm offers important additional benefits in a scenario in which it is teamed directly with manned platforms.
The video below, from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Collaborative Operations in Denied Environment (CODE) program, depicts many of drone swarm concepts that Ochmanek described.

"For many, many years this country’s been on a vector of increasingly sophisticated, expensive platforms in ever-smaller numbers, and we’ve seen the inventory of combat aircraft in the Air Force decrease because of this ineluctable trend of increasing cost per platform. That had a strong rationale when we had technical and operational superiority over our adversaries and when in fact we were very concerned about attrition," Ochmanek said. "The advent of autonomy means that we have the opportunity now to flood the battlespace essentially with inexpensive platforms that can do the jobs that human beings have in the past done and done them actually more robustly than manned concepts."
Ochmanek highlighted how advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), and separate networked weapon concepts that the Air Force, among others, is working on now, will only add to a future autonomous swarm's capabilities in any context. He indicated that this had been an additional factor in the game-changing employment of swarms in Taiwan Strait conflict simulations.
 

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"The image we have is you send these things out to the battlespace and they are talking so to speak among themselves. When someone ‘sees’ something of interest – oh that looks like a Renhai [People's Liberation Army Type 055 destroyer] – they’ll gang up on it, and you’ll get multiple looks ... from multiple angles," he explained. "They’ll share data. The automatic target recognition function will turn those data into a nominated target. And as weapons come in, the mesh itself will grab that weapon and say ‘your primary target is this. I’m not only going to assign you to that target, I’m going to help you hit 47 feet aft of the bow so you maximize your probability of kill against that particular platform.'"
type-055.jpg

A Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy Type 055 destroyer, that service's most advanced surface combatant. Ochmanek used this ship as an example of a key target that an autonomous drone swarm acting as a sensing grid could help target during a potential Taiwan-related conflict. People's Liberation Army Navy
Ochmanek acknowledged that there are concerns about the maturity of the technology needed to underpin all of this, as well as the need to mitigate various threats, especially from electronic warfare attacks. He said that RAND, at least, is confident that these challenges are surmountable, particularly through the use of a distributed 'mesh' network formed by the swarm itself, with systems that are available today.

"In a recent Air Force wargame, I was briefing this concept to the adjudication team, and I think it's fair to say the adjudicators were a little bit skeptical about all the magic we were invoking for this sensing grid. And one of them asked ‘well who’s going to command and control all these hundreds of UAVs?'" Ochmanek recounted. "I said, ‘the same guy who commands and controls the 10,000 Uber drivers on the island of Manhattan.’ It’s not Mildred sitting at a switchboard saying ‘Joe, you go to the corner of 42nd and Broadway,’ no it’s the AI. It’s not that hard given the state of current computing to imagine a system where the targeting grid is quote commanding and control itself."
At the same time, "we all know that the EMS [electromagnetic spectrum] environment in any conflict with China, or Russia for that matter, is going to be very demanding," he added. "We also know that if you want to have literally hundreds up to thousands of UAVs operating in the battlespace it’s not going to be practical to have them all be remotely piloted, particularly when your space-based comms are under intensive attack, both lethal and nonlethal."

"We looked at eight different classes of radios in different frequency bands, we looked at different jamming threats in terms of their proximity and intensity, and so forth in the Strait, and we concluded that in the 5G band and the high 5G band, even very intensive comm jamming can’t prevent the UAVs in the mesh from communicating, from linking with one another," Ochmanek continued. "And we’re talking about a density in which there’s never more than 10 kilometers [just over 6 miles] between UAVs in that mesh. So that 10-kilometer link distance was our threshold value and we’re quite confident that, even with fair low power off-the-shelf radios, you can sustain that level of connectivity even in the presence of highly powerful jammers."
targeting-mesh-rand.jpg

A RAND depicting a "targeting mesh" with the 10 kilometer spacing between nodes.
The former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense further pointed out that doing initial data processing right "at the edge" of wherever the drone swarm is operating will help reduce the amount of information that needs to be transmitted to any additional node. That, in turn, reduces the total amount of bandwidth necessary – "we’re thinking one-tenth of a megabyte per second is more than sufficient" – for the network to operate effectively, further improving its resiliency.
It's not clear exactly how much the Air Force's own internal modeling of cross-Strait conflict might reflect the work at RAND that Ochmanek described during the recent online chat. However, as already noted, RAND has worked closely with AFWIC on wargaming out these scenarios.

The autonomous drone swarm in AFWIC's 2020 Taiwan crisis wargame, which was linked together using a distributed mesh network, was cited as a key contributor to the defeat of Chinese forces in that particular scenario. "Although they were mostly used as a sensing grid, some were outfitted with weapons capable of — for instance — hitting small ships moving from the Chinese mainland across the strait," according to a report on this simulation from Defense News last year.
“An unmanned vehicle that is taking off from Taiwan and doesn’t need to fly that far can actually be pretty small. And because it’s pretty small, and you’ve got one or two sensors on it, plus a communications node, then those are not expensive.,” Lt. Gen. Clint Hinote, the Air Force's Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration, and Requirements, told Defense News in a related interview. "You could buy hundreds of them."

At the same time, the victory over the Chinese side in that Air Force simulation two years ago was described in subsequent reporting as "pyrrhic," pointing to still-heavy losses in personnel and materiel. During the Mitchell Institute discussion, Ochmanek specifically highlighted how the U.S. military is aware of the significant existing and emerging threats to established air bases and other facilities in any future high-end conflict, especially one against China in the Pacific, potentially over Taiwan, but has not yet mitigated those risks.
china-range-map.jpg

A Defense Intelligence Agency annotated map showing the ranges at which China can strike with various conventionally-armed ballistic and cruise missiles. DOD
"We have not solved the problem of the missile threat to airbases. Our active defenses are expensive. They’re not impermeable. They can be overwhelmed by modest sized salvos," he said. "And yet we need to operate from inside the threat ring in order to generate the kind of combat power that is called for by these intensive operations."

Extensive Chinese strikes against U.S. facilities across the Pacific in the opening phases of a conflict over Taiwan is a common occurrence in wargaming this scenario. Just recently, NBC News' "Meet the Press" sponsored a series of independent Taiwan Strait wargame that was run by Washington, D.C.-based Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank, the outcomes of which were summarized during the show's May 15 broadcast. The 'red' team, representing the regime on mainland China, was able to seize at least some Taiwanese territory in each playthrough, despite suffering significant casualties and equipment losses. It's unclear whether a U.S. military drone swarm was factored into the CNAS-led wargaming or not.

Chinese strikes on U.S. bases, including those in Japan, as part of a Taiwan invasion operation were a key factor in these simulations. Members of the 'blue' team – representing the United States, Taiwan, and their allies and partners – were surprised by this aggressiveness and suggested that this was an unrealistic portrayal, with Chinese officials more likely to work up to an intervention after first making various feints and otherwise attempting to throw the international community off-balance.

However, Lt. Gen. Hinote subsequently told Air Force Magazine that this scenario "'rhymes' with many of the things we see in our more detailed wargaming" at "the strategic and operational levels." He added that the airspace "is likely to be contested over Taiwan in a way we have not seen in a long time."
During the Mitchell Institute talk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Ochmanek said that swarms of unmanned aircraft, especially if they are runway independent, could be part of the solution to the problem of defending against or otherwise remaining resilient in the face of Chinese strikes in a defense of Taiwan scenario. He specifically cited Kratos' XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned aircraft, which is launched and recovered without the use of a runway, and that the Air Force is using as a testbed for various advanced warfighting experiments now, as one example. Kratos has previously presented a concept for a containerized launch system for the XQ-58A, which would further enable it to be rapidly and flexibly deployed, even to remote or austere locations.


All told, there is ever-growing evidence to support the immense and potentially game-changing value of autonomous drone swarms in any potential Taiwan Strait crisis, among other potential conflict scenarios. The U.S. government is now reportedly pushing the Taiwanese military to expand its fleets of unmanned aircraft, among other weapon systems purchases that American authorities believe would do the most to bolster the island's ability to at least resist a Chinese invasion.
This all comes as the U.S. Intelligence Community continues to assess that the Chinese military is aiming to be in a position by 2027 where it would feel confident in its ability to succeed in any future operation to retake Taiwan by force. Of course, U.S. military officials have also said that this does not mean that the People's Liberation Army would automatically launch such an intervention after that point.

It is worth noting that the Chinese military has been heavily investing itself in various advanced unmanned capabilities, including technology to enable networked swarms, and has arguably made more progress in fielding platforms than its American counterparts, as least as far as we know. A future conflict in and around the Taiwan Strait could very well see the People's Liberation Army employ its own drone swarms, launched from areas on the mainland or even ships at sea.
Regardless, concerns are growing that the long-standing potential for a conflict over Taiwan could turn into a reality. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. Air Force, or any other branches of the U.S. military, will take the necessary steps to be able to deploy an autonomous drone swarm if it becomes necessary to defend the island, which looks like it could be a decisive factor in the outcome of such a crisis.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
stripe



Please see source for embedded videos
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Fifty years of rhetoric would be a better title...
..although they are more likely than ever to carry out the threat.
 

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passin' thru
Taiwan moves IDF, Mirage jets to Taiwan Strait islands, east coast
Moves are response to ADIZ incursions by Chinese military aircraft


By Matthew Strong, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2022/05/20 17:05

Taiwan's Indigenous Defense Fighter.


Taiwan's Indigenous Defense Fighter. (CNA photo)


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The Air Force has moved Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDF) and Mirage 2000 jets to Penghu in the Taiwan Strait and to Taitung on the east coast in response to incursions by military aircraft from China, reports said Friday (May 20).

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has repeatedly sent jets and other aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), leading Taiwan to scramble jets to intercept the Chinese planes. The Air Force said Friday it had moved IDF jets to its base in Magong, Penghu County, and French-built Mirage jets to Taitung County in the southeast, the Liberty Times reported.

A delegation of lawmakers from the Foreign and National Defense Committee visited the Zhihang Air Force Base in Taitung this week. They noted that while most intrusions occurred southwest of Taiwan’s main island, some Chinese planes entered the southeast sector of the ADIZ.

Defense analysts have interpreted the frequent incursions as having the aim of collecting information and wearing out Taiwan’s Air Force.

 

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'140,000 Soldiers and 953 Ships': Leaked Audio Clip Reveals China's Plan To Invade Taiwan


By Meera Suresh
05/24/22 AT 8:23 AM




U.S. Officials: Taiwan Learning From Russia’s Military Failures in Ukraine
KEY POINTS
  • The viral audio clip was also shared by human rights activist Jennifer Zeng
  • The meeting discusses the roadmap of the "normal to war transition" plan
  • The committee also spoke about recruiting new military service personnel
A leaked audio clip purportedly featuring the Chinese Communist Party's top brass discussing military plans for a Taiwan invasion has triggered a controversy online. According to Indian media, the 57-minute leaked clip is reportedly the first-ever recording of a Chinese military brass gathering.
Expert analysis of the audio clip posted on the YouTube channel of Lude Media appears authentic, reported The Times Of India, a New Delhi-based news media. The viral audio clip was also shared by Jennifer Zeng, a China-born human rights activist, on her Twitter handle. Zeng also published the transcript on her website.



International Business Times could not independently verify this clip, and there is so far no official confirmation from Beijing in this regard.
The meeting discusses the roadmap of the "normal to war transition" plan by the top CPC leadership. The audio clip suggests that those present at the high-level meeting include Guangdong's party secretary, deputy secretary, governor and the vice-governor.

The focus of the meeting was on Taiwan, stressing "smashing independence forces and not hesitating to start a war." The top leadership also discussed "defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity," a major strategic decision of Chinese president Xi Jinping and the "overall strategic situation of China's great rejuvenation."
The officials also recommended opening a joint civilian-military command and "plan-deploy-organize" the province's normal to war transition.

The meeting discussed companies that would play crucial roles during the war. These include Zhuhai Orbita, Shenzhen Aerospace Dongfanghong Satellite Co., Foshan Deliya and Ji Hua Laboratory. Besides, four satellite detachments will be formed. "We have in total 16 low-orbit satellites, with 0.5 to 10 meters global remote ultra-high optical resolution sensing and imaging capabilities," officials were heard saying in the clip.
The mobilization issued to Guangdong by the eastern and southern war zones includes "20 categories and 239 items." It includes 140,000 lakh military personnel, 953 ships, 1,653 units of unmanned equipment, 20 airports and docks, six repair and shipbuilding yards, 14 emergency transfer centres, and resources such as grain depots, and hospitals, blood stations, oil depots, gas stations, etc.

Recruitment of new military service personnel, retired military personnel, and special talents totaling 15,500 personnel from the province was also discussed.

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"The National Defense Commission statement clearly stated that our province shall coordinate the implementation of the seven types of national level warfare resources, including, mainly, 64 10,000-ton roll-on/roll-off ships, 38 aircraft, 588 train cars and 19 civil facilities including airports and docks," a speaker was heard in the audio clip.
According to the Times of India, the meeting was held to discuss "pre-war preparations" and it was more of a discussion-style meeting where each participant gave suggestions.
Representation. A screen shows Chinese President Xi Jinping speaking at a meeting. Photo: Reuters / KEVIN YAO
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