Avian flu updates page 8

[The Flying Dutchman]

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[which means that the russians don't have *Spit* right now to combat H5N1]



<B><font size=+1 color=brown><center>Bird Flu vaccine to be developed in Russia in 2006 </font>
MOSCOW, August 5
<A href="http://en.rian.ru/russia/20050805/41097043.html">(RIA Novosti)</A>
A Bird Flu vaccine will be developed in Russia sometime in 2006, said Rem Petrov, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. </B></center>
"In 2006, we will be able to create a vaccine against bird flu. In Russia, there are several places where the vaccine is being developed, in particular St. Petersburg and Irkutsk," he said.

"This is a rapidly mutating virus. Having appeared among chickens, it has developed the possibility of changing hosts, i.e. infecting pigs and people. There is no vaccine against the virus. If it begins to spread, we could see an epidemic.

<B>"There is no need to panic... We must be prepared for the worst," he said. </B>

Flu is not included in the list of compulsory inoculations in Russia.

"An epidemic cannot be stopped in this way. Two weeks ago we were discussing this problem at the Federation Council, and senators recommended introducing a flu inoculation and tackling the problem on a nationwide level.

"There is a danger of bird flu spreading to other regions of Russia," he said.

 

[Kim99]

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http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/2...805_200456.html

Flu could infect half world's people in year


An outbreak of flu in rural Southeast Asia could spread around the globe in three months and infect half the world's population within a year, unless strict measures to contain it are introduced, scientists said on Wednesday.

The warning comes from researchers who used computer models to investigate what would happen if the bird flu virus, which is currently rife among poultry in areas of Cambodia, Thailand and Viet Nam, mutated into a form that spread easily among humans.

Scientists believe it is only a matter of time before the virus, known as H5N1, mutates to become more infectious to humans, possibly by swapping genes with the human flu virus.

"This is the event we are all scared might happen at any time," said Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and the leading author of the study. "We'd be faced with an event worse than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic."

The avian flu virus has killed more than 50 people in Asia, more than half of those who have been infected. Almost every death was traced back to the person coming into contact with infected poultry in the countryside. The Spanish pandemic of 1918 is believed to have claimed up to 40 million lives worldwide.

Professor Ferguson's team modelled the spread of a mutated bird flu virus among 85 million people living in Thailand and a strip of neighbouring countries. After watching how quickly the virus spread around the globe, they tested various strategies for containing an outbreak. "Until now, the idea of stopping an outbreak hadn't been investigated," he said.

If an outbreak was detected in its infancy, with less than 50 people infected, models show it could be contained by administering antiviral drugs to the 20,000 people closest to those infected, the researchers reported in the journal Nature Thursday. Combined with other measures, such as shutting schools and workplaces, it would take around 60 days to contain the outbreak, with the number of cases totalling no more than around 200.

To deal with the worst case scenario of an bird flu outbreak, the scientists called for an international stockpile of 3 million courses of antiviral drugs to be set up, ready to be deployed anywhere in the world within a few days of an outbreak being detected.

A spokeswoman for Roche, which manufactures the antiviral drug Tamiflu, confirmed that the company is in talks with the World Health Organization about building a stockpile of the drug, but refused to give further details. The WHO already has 120,000 courses of Tamiflu, but with Britain and France each waiting for orders of 15 million courses from Roche, the company will have to decide which takes priority.

Professor Ferguson's research was reported alongside a second study published online Thursday by the US journal Science, which modelled an outbreak of flu among half a million people living in Thailand.

Source: China Daily
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[Kim99]

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Brussels to ban Russian bird imports
By our International Staff
Published: August 6 2005 03:00 | Last updated: August 6 2005 03:00


The European Commission said yesterday it would declare a Europe-wide ban on imported birds and feather-based products from Russia and Kazakhstan over concern about the spread of a flu virus that can be deadly for humans.

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Alexander Müller, Germany's deputy minister for agriculture and consumer protection, told the FT that a ban was needed because of worries that Russia had failed to clarify circumstances surrounding the recent spread of the highly potent H5N1 virus among poultry in Siberia. The Commission said it expected member states to implement the ban by the end of next week.

Fifty-seven people in Asia have been confirmed dead from the virus, and another 112 infected, following bird flu outbreaks in that region since 2003.

No bird imports take place into the EU from Russia and Kazakhstan, but the action by regulators marks a significant expansion to the international public health response to the growing risk of a flu pandemic that could spread to humans.

Following the outbreak of bird flu in Thailand in January 2004, Brussels drew up the list of banned countries, modifying it whenever needed. Japan and South Korea were withdrawn from the list last January, but North Korea was then added a few months later.

The Commission confirmed last night that it was set to add Kazakhstan and Russia although the two countries do not have permission to export such meat and there were no significant concerns about a possible spread of the disease from Russia.

"We are always worried when there is avian influenza, wherever it is in the world, but it seems that the birds affected in this case are migratory birds travelling between Russia and Asia but that don't come to Europe. That is why we are not particularly worried at this stage."

Mr Müller said Germany had been in talks with the Commission about the ban since the end of last week, after Moscow had sent "mixed signals" about whether the H5N1 strain had appeared on Russian soil. "The situation is that we have seen all sorts of reports coming from Russia but Moscow has yet to make any statement to the World Organisation for Animal Health in Paris," he said. "We cannot afford to wait."

Yet Mr Muller said the absence of customs controls between member states of the European single market meant isolated national bans could do little to prevent such products entering Germany. "We have to close all possible loopholes that could allow the virus into Europe."

A senior Russian official stressed on Thursday that no humans had been affected by the outbreak of bird flu in poultry. Experts had warned the biggest danger was from infected wild birds migrating to Europe.

Although the spotlight on bird flu has recently been on Asia, Europe was hit in 2003, when the Dutch slaughtered three-quarters of its poultry population following an outbreak. Andrew Jack in London, Bertrand Benoit in Berlin, Raphael Minder in Brussels and Neil Buckley in Moscow

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ad188108-0...000e2511c8.html

 

[Kim99]

Bird Flu Cases Increase, Adding Credence to Warnings

Computer models aid in containment strategies if human pandemic erupts

By Charlene Porter
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington – The steady creep of a deadly form of avian influenza, or bird flu, lends further credence to warnings issued by international health officials for months that the H5N1 virus could trigger a worldwide flu pandemic.

Vietnam remains the nation most seriously affected with the appearance of bird flu in humans; officials there report, and the World Health Organization (WHO) confirms, three additional cases of human infection with the virus that has caused the deaths of hundreds of millions of poultry across Asia.

Vietnam has detected a total of 90 human cases of H5N1 since the disease first began to appear in the region in late 2003. Of those, 40 have died.

WHO’s official accounting of human cases issued August 5 tallies 112 in four nations – Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia. After Vietnam, Thailand has confirmed the most avian influenza cases – 17 – while Indonesia is the most recent government to report a human death. A man who died July 12 had two young daughters who also became ill and subsequently died. Tests are still ongoing to determine whether H5N1 was the cause of the girls’ deaths.

As the human toll of the disease increases, so does the spread of the virus among bird populations. Russian animal health officials have reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health the appearance of H5N1 in three villages in Novosibirsk province.

This Russian region borders on Kazakhstan, where a strain of bird flu is also reported, according to news reports, but not yet confirmed as the highly dangerous H5N1 strain.

This strain infected humans for the first time in only 1997, health officials say, so immunity to it is virtually nonexistent in people. The pattern of human infection so far proves that the virus is not easily transmitted between humans. Most cases have been traced to close contact with infected birds.

Health authorities fear though that H5N1 will mutate to become more transmissible between humans. If that happens, in a world of rapid transit and globalized travel, experts say a flu pandemic could sweep from nation to nation with the potential death toll in the tens of millions, and economic and trade disruption of immense proportions.

Pandemic Research

A timely response with a targeted distribution of antiviral drugs could contain an epidemic and prevent a global spread, according to research published by international research teams. Using computer models, the research shows that pandemic could be prevented with a combination of carefully implemented public health measures introduced soon after the first cases appear.

Scientists in the United States, Hong Kong, Thailand and France produced the work as participants in a research network funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS), a component of the National Institutes of Health.

Two different computer models tested different outbreak scenarios, according to an August 3 NIGMS press release. One focused on 85 million people in Thailand and bordering regions of neighboring countries. Published in the magazine Nature, this study found that 3 million courses of antiviral drugs targeted for treatment of infected individuals and all their contacts – family, friends, schoolmates, coworkers, and shopkeepers – could have more than a 90 percent chance of stopping the virus.

A second computer model developed a scenario involving 500,000 people in rural Southeast Asia. Described in the magazine Science, this model applied similar treatment and response strategies to those of the first study, but also called for the pre-pandemic inoculation of the population with a flu vaccine, even though the vaccine would be considered low-efficacy. That is, it would be a vaccine of limited value because it would not have been specifically developed to target a rapidly emerging, previously unknown viral strain.

An inoculation campaign would help bolster the effectiveness of the other containment strategies such as quarantine and antiviral treatment according to the study. Under that scenario, the spread of the pandemic might be contained to less than one case per 1,000 people.

Further information on both studies is available at the MIDAS (Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study) Web site.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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[Kim99]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08060501/H5N1_Mongolia.html

Commentary
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H5N1 Bird Flu Migrates to Mongolia

Recombinomics Commentary
August 6, 2005

The report quotes the Mongolian emergency case bureau person in charge says, these birds death places are storehouse Soviet Gull the province Arab League ?? Erdeni county one lakelet, since at the end of July, has roosted the rest one after another dies in this swan and the goose.

This person in charge indicates, at present the partial dead bird has delivered toward capital Ulan Bator analyzes, verifies the death reason, the remaining dead bird has done buries and so on processing, periphery the lake has also disinfected, comes out in the chemical examination result front forbids the person livestock to enter.

The above machine translation of a Boxun report suggest H5N1 bird flu has migrated to Mongolia. Mongolia's proximity to Qinghai Lake, Russia, and Kazakhstan, all of which have confirmed H5N1 bird flu, predicted that bird flu would also reach Mongolia,

Prior H5 isolates from Chnay Lake and Primorie had shown related top each other as well as H5 in Europe, indicting migratory bird transmit H5 from Chany Lake to Primorie or vice versa. Either direction however would likely include flights over Mongolia.

The H5N1 detected in China, Russia and Kazakhstan kill geese, which is unusual. The dead geese in Mongolia strongly suggest that the H5N1 in the three adjacent countries has migrated to Mongolia also. The dead geese in Mongolia also suggest H5N1 will be detected in Primorie also.

The appearance of the Asian version of H5N1 has not been previously reported in Russia, Kazakhstan, or Mongolia. Thus, H5N1 has expanded is geographical range as well as its host range. After migrating from Russian and northern China, it seems likely that most of Asia and Europe will be H5N1 positive in the upcoming flu season in the northern hemisphere.

 

[Kim99]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/08060502/H5N1_Eastern_Kazakhstan.html
Commentary
.
H5N1 Bird Flu Migrates to Eastern Kazakhstan

Recombinomics Commentary
August 6, 2005

Eastern- Kazakhstan region, Borodulikhinskiy region, s. Red steep bank. 04.08.2005 into 09.30 min. from The department CHS of region it entered communication about those registered the cases of the loss of poultry (hens) in by the 7th personal economies in a quantity of 364 heads, preliminary diagnosis "is highly pathogenic bird influenza. Pasteurellosis ". For laboratory diagnostics they are selected the materials, which are sent in GU "national the center of monitoring, reference, laboratory diagnostics and the methodologies of veterinary science ",

The above machine translation from the Kazakhstan Emergency web site indicates that H5N1 has migrated into Eastern Kazakhstan, This was not unexpected because in June China reported H5N1 in Tacheng, which borders Kazakhstan and is about 30 miles south of Eastern Kazakhstan. The migratory bird associated with the Tacheng outbreak in China's Xinjiang region probably continued north to the Chany Lake region, where there were additional deaths of poulty in several farms to the east, west, and south of Chany Lake. H5N1 was also responsible for those poultry deaths.

Eastern Kazahkstan is where 15 people were hospitalized after eating chicken cutlets at a dining hall. A report updating their status has not been made public.

The detection of dead birds in Eastern Kazakhstan parallels similar findings in southern Russia suggesting that the outbreaks in Russia's southern regions will be mirrored by corresponding outbreaks in northern regions of Kazakhstan.

Sequencing of H5N1 isolates in Novosibirsk indicates the H5N1 is derived from Asia but somewhat different than the isolates from Vietnam. This description matches the sequences from Qinghai Lake and suggests migratory birds are spreading this version of H5N1 in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia.

The rapid spread of H5N1 in Asia is cause for concern because the Qinghai Lake version has 18-25 amino acid differences in HA and NA proteins when compared to the 2004 version from Vietnam which is being used to make a pandemic vaccine. This vaccine is unlikely to be effective against the 2005 Qinghai version because of the large number of amino acids in the two proteins genetically engineered into the pandemic vaccine strain. Vaccines against the 2004 pandemic strain from Vietnam are being developed worldwide.

 

[Martin]

Bird flu roundup

At the risk of repeatedly banging the same drum (and scaring people at the Indy meet), it's time for another round up regarding H5N1 and it's inexorable spread across the world. And that's what's happening. Avian flu has reached Russia (subscription required), with the first infections happening in Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia. Culling of bird populations has begun already.

With lots of backyard chickens, bird trading at markets, and a poor infrastructure, it's unlikely that Russia can halt the westward spread of the virus, which means it may reach Europe as well, says Ilaria Capua, an avian influenza researcher at the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Venezie in Italy. "It looks bad ... It's going to be very, very, very hard to stop it."

Meanwhile, research published in both Nature and Science this week looks at what might be needed to stop a pandemic before it starts. Simulations of outbreaks were modeled, and measures were taken to prevent the spread of the disease, including the treatment of all possible infections with 10-day courses of Tamiflu, and severe restrictions of mobility within the affected country.

The more such measures were deployed, the higher the chances that the pandemic petered out, both studies conclude. But success depended critically on several conditions: the pandemic virus could not be too infectious, the first cases had to be found within a couple of weeks, and all contacts of patients needed to be given the drug within a day or two.

Those are some pretty big ifs, says Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. "The models make sense, and we should seriously consider this approach," he says. "But the take-home message is there's no way we can count on this." But Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, says he puts very little stock in such models, and he worries that the findings may lead other countries to become complacent about their own pandemic preparedness.

Finally, a study published in PNAS looks back at public health records and identifies an early wave of the 1918 flu pandemic in New York City, noted by shift in mortality to young adults.



http://arstechnica.com/columns/science/science-20050806.ars

 

[Gayla]

Avian Flu Vaccine Called Effective in Human Testing

By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN

Published: August 7, 2005

WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 - Government scientists say they have successfully tested in people a vaccine that they believe can protect against the strain of avian influenza that is spreading in birds through Asia and Russia.

Health officials have been racing to develop a vaccine because they worry that if that strain mutated and combined with a human influenza virus to create a new virus, it could spread rapidly through the world. (The vaccine cannot lead to such a situation because it is made from killed virus.)

Tens of millions of birds have died from infection with the virus and culling to prevent the spread of the virus. About 100 people have been infected, and about 50 have died from this strain of the avian influenza virus, called A(H5N1). So far there has been no sustained human-to-human transmission, but that is what health officials fear, because it could cause a pandemic. And that fear has driven the intense research to develop a vaccine.

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, said that although the vaccine that had undergone preliminary tests could be used on an emergency basis if a pandemic developed, it would still be several months before that vaccine was tested further and, if licensed, offered to the public.

"It's good news," Dr. Fauci said. "We have a vaccine."

But he cautioned: "We don't have all the vaccine we need to meet the possible demand. The critical issue now is, can we make enough vaccine, given the well-known inability of the vaccine industry to make enough vaccine?"

An earlier human vaccine against the A(H5N1) avian influenza virus was prepared after it first appeared in the world, in Hong Kong in 1997. That vaccine was never fully developed or used, and the strain has mutated since then.

In interviews over recent days, Dr. Fauci has said that tests so far had shown that the new vaccine produced a strong immune response among the small group of healthy adults under age 65 who volunteered to receive it, although the doses needed were higher than in the standard influenza vaccine offered each year. The vaccine, developed with genetic engineering techniques, is intended to protect against infection, not to treat those who are sick.

Further tests are expected to be conducted among two groups - people 65 and older, and children - over the next several months. Dr. Fauci expressed confidence that they would confirm the success of the first tests and answer remaining scientific questions.

Because the vaccine is made in chicken eggs, "a potential major stumbling block" to successful mass production is the number of eggs farmers can supply manufacturers, Dr. Fauci said.

If manufacturers can overcome such hurdles, the new vaccine could go far in averting a possible pandemic of human influenza, Dr. Fauci said.

Only a small number of human cases of A(H5N1) influenza have been found. Although a few cases may have been transmitted from person to person in Asia, the A(H5N1) strain has not garnered enough strength to spread widely among humans anywhere.

As of Friday night, according to the World Health Organization in Geneva, the avian strain has killed 57 of the 112 people it has been known to infect in four countries. They are Cambodia (4 cases), Indonesia (one case), Thailand (17 cases) and Vietnam (90 cases).

The additional tests are needed in part to determine the optimal dose of vaccine; how many shots people will need for protection; and whether adding another ingredient called an adjuvant to the vaccine could raise the potency of lower doses, stretching the number of people that could be protected. Even when these tests are completed, more time will be needed before the Food and Drug Administration can license the human vaccine and before policy makers determine when and how it should be administered.

Government researchers and others developed the vaccine, which is produced by Sanofi-Pasteur, a French vaccine company that is now part of Aventis. The government could decide to release the product under emergency conditions if an A(H5N1) influenza pandemic struck before the testing process was completed.

Although cautioning that the vaccine had not been fully tested, Dr. Fauci said that the initial test findings had given the federal government enough confidence to start the process of adding millions more doses of the vaccine to the 2 million it had bought. The present supply is stored in bulk form, and "we cannot put it in vials until we find out what the right dose is," Dr. Fauci said.

The manufacturer needs to know the dose and regimen to determine how much more vaccine it can produce and make available to the United States and other customers.

Scientists had to test the human avian influenza vaccine on volunteers because the A(H5N1) strain differed in significant ways from the conventional strains that cause human influenza.

Also, the influenza shots that are offered each year are derived from the human strains that are circulating most widely at the time experts choose the components of the next vaccine. Human influenza viruses mutate enough each year to force changes in the standard vaccines. Such vaccines produce a broader and stronger immunity because recipients build up an immunity to influenza from repeated immunizations and exposure to the influenza virus.

In a sense, the standard annual influenza shots are booster doses. But the A(H5N1) vaccine is a primary immunization because, having had no exposure to that virus, people lack any immunity to the avian strain.

The United States is thought to be the only country that has produced a human vaccine against the A(H5N1) influenza strain. Australia, Canada, France and Japan are among countries where scientists are trying to develop human avian influenza vaccines, according to the World Health Organization.

Dr. Fauci's institute also contracted with the Chiron Corporation, which is based in Emeryville, Calif. to make another A(H5N1) vaccine. But tests of the Chiron vaccine have not started because of delays related to prior contamination found in Chiron's plants.

Dr. Fauci said his institute had 8,000 doses of the Chiron human A(H5N1) vaccine and hoped to start testing it in volunteers in late fall. The tests will follow the same steps taken with the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/07/h...&en=2ce7397eb72918ff&ei=5094&partner=homepage