Avian flu updates page 3

Martin

Deceased
Avian flu page 2
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=155779&highlight=avian




Bird flu virus in Vietnam evolves

www.chinaview.cn 2005-06-27 10:33:57


HANOI, June 27 (Xinhuanet) -- Laboratory tests in Vietnam and abroad have indicated that the antigen structure of bird flu virus strain H5N1 in the country is changing, local newspaper Labor Monday quoted a Vietnamese Health Ministry report as saying.

The change, which might increase the possibility of bird flu infections on human, explains why people in Vietnam have still been infected with H5N1 in recent months, although it has detected no major outbreaks.

The mutation also makes it more difficult for health agencies to identify high-risk areas, since poultry infected with H5N1 with a change in the antigen structure do not exhibit the disease's symptoms, said the report.

An international team, consisting of top virologists and epidemiologists from Chinese Hong Kong, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, is studying the possibility of more widespread H5N1 human transmission, changes in the virus strain, and the likelihood of increased person-to-person transmission. The experts are expected to make initial conclusions on the virus's mutation late this month.

To minimize infections on poultry as well as humans, Vietnam will start vaccinating fowls against bird flu viruses in northern Nam Dinh province and southern Tien Giang province on a trial basis in early August, and then do the same in other localities with high risks of outbreaks in October if the vaccination proves effective.

The country's Veterinary Department is asking localities to reduce the number of poultry flocks, raise and slaughter them on large scale in concentrated areas, and cull infected poultry as well as flocks of less than 30 fowls which are raised freely in gardens or fields, regardless they contract H5N1 or not.

The total of bird flu patients confirmed in Vietnam since mid-December 2004 has increased to 59 cases, of which 18 were fatal. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-06/27/content_3141330.htm
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
Sorry, Martin. I didn't see that you started this thread. Just posted this on the other thread. Kim
 

Martin

Deceased
Editorial

A Sickening Prospect: U.S. readiness for avian flu is worrisome


10:10 PM CDT on Sunday, June 26, 2005




If the staggeringly lethal H5N1 strain of avian flu jumps into the human population and ignites the apocalyptic global pandemic scientists fear, a fateful decision by the Chinese government will likely prove of world-historical importance.

The Washington Post reported that during the late 1990s, in violation of basic health protocols, China advised its farmers to dose their poultry with the antiviral drug amantadine as an anti-flu precaution. Amantadine is meant for humans only, and its use in treating livestock may have given rise to the new flu strain, which is resistant to the drug.

In the event of a global pandemic, the folly of the Chinese (who, implausibly, deny the well-sourced report) might result in the agonizing deaths of up to 350 million people worldwide, according to a recent estimate by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a top flu expert who advises the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. With a nightmare scenario breathing down our collective necks, the world cannot afford such bureaucratic fearfulness or stupidity.

The signs of impending pandemic grow more worrisome by the day. In May, the Indonesian government discovered the virus in pigs – a major leap to mammals, and particularly to a species of mammal that, pathologically speaking, is close to humans. A week ago, Indonesia confirmed its first case in a human being, a farmer. Meanwhile, public health officials report that the virus seems to be mutating in Vietnam to make itself more easily transmissible between humans.

If pandemic comes, a virus with such an astronomical mortality rate – more than half of all cases so far have been fatal – will present far more than a public health problem. It stands to cause massive economic dislocation worldwide and even civil unrest here, sparked by fear and panic in the face of food shortages and an overwhelmed health system. Said Dr. Osterholm, commenting on America's current lack of readiness: "We're pretty much screwed right now."

Our country stands a better chance of withstanding a flu catastrophe if the public has been well informed and prepared in advance by its leaders. America is not China. And this is not Chicken Little.



http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...itorials/stories/062705dnediflu.4afe88a3.html
 

Martin

Deceased
Officials begin culling birds at Japanese farm after flu outbreak?(updated AM 11:22)


2005/6/27
MITSUKAIDO, Japan (AP)



Officials began culling chickens and disinfecting a farm in northeastern Japan Monday following an outbreak of bird flu, though the strain involved is not considered dangerous to humans.

Dozens of officials wearing white suits, masks and safety goggles entered the farm in Mitsukaido City in Ibaraki prefecture (state), just northeast of Tokyo, where more than 800 chickens have died since April. Recent tests on some found they were infected with the H5N2 strain of bird flu.


Some 25,000 chickens were expected to be culled.


The infected farm and all others within a 5-kilometer (3-mile) radius were banned from shipping any birds or eggs until it is confirmed that there are no further infections.


Agriculture Ministry officials have ordered all other farms within the quarantine zone to sterilize their facilities.


Bird flu returned to Japan last year for the first time in decades, causing the death or extermination of more than 300,000 chickens. Japan also confirmed a human case of bird flu in December, but nobody has died.


"We confirmed the virus is less virulent than last year's virus," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda.


The H5N2 strain has not been known to infect humans, according to the ministry, unlike the H5N1 strain that crossed over to humans and killed a total of 54 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said the risk of human infection from H5N2 is likely to be low.


Officials were taking precautions, however, to conduct health examinations for workers at farms in the affected area as they investigated the cause of the outbreak. All seven workers and the family at the farm have tested negative for the virus, Hosoda said.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1432579
 

Martin

Deceased
Posted on Mon, Jun. 27, 2005



Avian flu worries state officials

Health experts fear pandemic if it hits nation; no cases reported in U.S. yet.

By Jennifer L. Boen

jboen@news-sentinel.com


Federal health officials have asked states to prepare for what could be an influenza pandemic, or worldwide infectious disease, like no other most Americans have seen.

Avian, or bird, flu, has already sickened 97 people in Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, killing 53 of them. According to a report released Friday by the nonprofit, nonpartisan Trust for America’s Health, projections are that more than a half-million Americans could die if this flu strain hits the United States, with another 2.3 million people hospitalized.

For Indiana alone, the report projects 11,817 people will die, 51,711 people will be hospitalized, and more than 1.4 million will be infected.

“The impetus for the plan is we do have a very real public health threat with this particular virus in Southeast Asia,” said Dr. Judith Monroe, state health commissioner.

“That’s a 55 percent case fatality rate,” Allen County commissioner of health Dr. Deborah McMahan told a gathering of health-care workers this week at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne. The meeting drew 100 members of the Allen County Medical Reserve Corps and individuals the corps hopes to recruit to help in the event of a disease outbreak.

Avian flu was first seen in birds and pigs. In 1997, the first human case, found in someone who worked around infected birds, was diagnosed in Hong Kong. The virus had mutated to make it transferable from bird to human. In 1997, 18 people were infected; six died. In 2004, the disease was found in Vietnam and Cambodia.

This flu strain, called H5N1, is of particular concern because of its ease in mutation. There is no immunity to it, because it’s a new disease in humans. Symptoms include typical flulike symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, to eye infections, pneumonia, severe respiratory disease and other complications, according to the Web site of the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention.

At the request of the CDC, with advice from the World Health Organization, the Indiana State Department of Health has written a pandemic preparedness plan that is now in the hands of county health officials, Monroe said. By midsummer, the state hopes to have it to the CDC for approval.

“About 20 different specialists have been working on (a) plan for the last three 3 months,” Monroe said. The plan addresses how public and private health-care systems would need to respond if an outbreak occurs, what to do to curtail further spread of the disease, the setting up of isolation and quarantine sites, and other pertinent details.

Monroe says Allen County has many of the systems in place already, and all counties are better prepared to respond to a major medical crisis than they were before Sept. 11, 2001.

“Now is the time for people to be educated and prepared, when there’s not a crisis.”

One of the characteristics of pandemics, Monroe said, is that they are not seasonal.

The National Institutes of Health has trials under way to develop an avian flu vaccine, but one of the challenges is to get the right antigens in it because the virus is mutating quickly, Monroe said.

The anti-viral Tamiflu has shown to be the most effective one in lessening severity of symptoms, although the drug does not prevent infection.

There is a national plan to stockpile Tamiflu, Monroe said. But the Trust for America’s Health report cites a current stockpile of only 2.3 million doses, with another 3 million doses not available by its maker, Roche Pharmaceuticals, until sometime in 2006.

Right now, people 65 and older, as well as anyone age 2 and older with a chronic health condition, should receive the pneumococcal vaccine, Monroe said. The one-time vaccine can lessen complications of pneumonia if the avian flu does strike.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reasons for concern

Indiana State Commissioner of Health Dr. Judith Monroe and Allen County Commissioner of Health Dr. Deborah McMahan cite the following reasons for concern about an avian flu pandemic:

♦It mutates rapidly, with the proteins in the original virus shifting easily and causing a recombination of DNA of two virus strains. The virus has mutated as it has gone from birds to pigs to tigers and other animals.

♦Eventually there is enough re-assortment of the gene that the virus can become part of human DNA, causing infection.

♦Although the infection may be mild in birds or pigs, it can be lethal in humans because of these changes.

♦The more human cases that appear, the greater the likelihood it will be transmissible from humans to humans.

♦There is no immunity to it at present.

♦The incubation period from time of exposure to infection is only one to four days.

♦Some species, including ducks, can have no symptoms of the disease but still spread it.

♦The World Health Organization says human-to-human transmission is not a matter of “if” but “when.” Human-to-human transmission is through respiratory droplets.


http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/fortwayne/news/local/11997905.htm
 

BB

Membership Revoked
WHO Schedules News Conference on Qinghai Visit

Recombinomics Commentary
June 27, 2005

>> WHO and FAO officials will discuss the outcome of the Qinghai mission, and take broader questions as well on the avian influenza situation in China at this time. <<
Although rumors suggest that tomorrow's press conference will not identify human cases associated with the Qinghai H5N1 bird flu outbreak, answers to broader questions may provide additional useful information.

Sequence data could help place the outbreak in the context of an evolving H5N1. Although no 2005 H5N1 sequences have been made available to the public, media reports have indicated the sequences from the Qinghai isolates from bar headed geese are similar to sequences from southeast China. Other reports have indicated southeast Asia, which would be similar to isolates in Vietnam and Thailand and raise questions about human transmission.

However, sequences related to southeast China would also be of interest. All of the H5N1 sequences at GenBank from 2004 isolates from Vietnam and Thailand are amantadine resistant. However, most sequences from China do not have those resistance markers, so the marker profile for positions 26 and 31 in the M2 gene would be of interest. The closeness to earlier sequences would also raise questions about the origin of the sequences. The initial isolates were from bar headed geese, which winter in northern India and begin to migrate to Qinghai Lake in early may. Since the geese were found dead on May 4, they were likely infected in India, since they can fly to Qinghai Lake in less than 24 hours.

A match of sequences in China would suggest that the H5N1 in China is widespread and may also be in India and Bangladesh, the winter home of bar headed geese. The data would also explain the H5N1 antibodies in Indian poultry workers. The false negatives in Vietnam raise concerns that H5N1 may be silently spreading and could already be quite widespread in India and Bangladesh. Screening with appropriate primers could provide a better read on the extent of H5N1 in Asia.

The migration of the birds in early May also coincided with a meningitis outbreak in northern India. There have been several third party reports suggesting H5N1 infections in humans may also be associated with the bar headed geese. Boxun reports in Abundant News described a much larger outbreak than was reported, including over 8000 bird deaths representing 13 species. In addition, there were reported deaths of mammals including domestic animals and humans.

The Qinhai outbreak was followed by an outbreak in Tacheng in Xinjiang province. The affected birds were domestic geese and this outbreak was followed by reports of pneumonia isolation wards at the Tacheng Hospital. Initial requests to visit Xinjiang were denied, but have since been granted. The pneumonia clinics raise additional concerns of human transmission.

There was another reported outbreak in Xinjiang, and again domestic waterfowl were involved, further supporting transmission by migrating birds.

Recently there have been rumors that local media in Qinghai carried reports of several human deaths linked to bird flu. These reports have not been confirmed, but extend the number of third party reports suggesting human transmission of H5N1 in China.

Information specifically addressing these rumors would be useful.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06270501/WHO_Qinghai_Press.html
 

Martin

Deceased
Neurotropic H5N1 in Japan Duck Meat Imported from Shandong

Recombinomics Commentary
June 27, 2005

>> An H5N1 influenza A virus was isolated from duck meat processed for human consumption, imported to Japan from Shandong Province, China in 2003. This virus was antigenically different from other H5 viruses, including the Hong Kong H5N1 viruses isolated from humans in 1997 and 2003.

This duck meat isolate was highly pathogenic to chickens upon intravenous or intranasal inoculation, replicated well in the lungs of mice and spread to the brain, but was not as pathogenic in mice as H5N1 human isolates

However, viruses isolated from the brain of mice previously infected with the virus were substantially more pathogenic

We found that the genotype of Dk/Yokohama/aq10/03 was unique and distinct from any of the H5N1 virus genotypes previously reported, including a recent isolate in Japan

the PB2 gene was closely related to a Dutch H7N7 human isolate (A/Netherlands/1/2003), which was transmitted directly from a chicken. Similarly, the PA gene was most closely related to a A/chicken/Shantou/4231/2004 strain and to a recent H5N1 isolate from Japan, and the NP gene most closely related to an H3N8 isolate from an aquatic bird (A/aquatic bird/Hong Kong/399/99)

These results indicate that an H5N1 virus with a novel, previously unreported genotype was circulating in China. <<

The above comments are from an ahead of print version of a Virology paper describing the isolation of H5N1 from duck meat imported into Japan from Shandong Province in 2003. This is similar to isolation of H5N1 in 2001 from duck meat imported into South Korea from Shanghai. In both instances several closely related H5N1 isolates were found during routine screening of imported duck meat.

In both instances the isolate virus was a unique reassortant with homologies to other H5N1 in most genes. The Yokahama isolate described above had many biological properties associated with disease in humans, including the ability to replicate in mice without adoptation, as well as containing variants that could be isolated from mouse brain.

In the report above as well as the isolate in Korea, the virus was isolated fro duck meat, suggesting H5N1 was in asymptomatic ducks. These data suggest many versions of H5N1 are circulating in China. Neither of the duck meat isolates were the Z genotype. The NA of the recent isolate did not have the 20 aa deletion found in Z genotype isolates as well as the 2001 isolate in Korea. Instead, the NA was like the Z* genotype from the two Hong Kong patients in 2003.

Infections by H5N1 were not reported by China in 2001 or 2003, further suggesting H5N1 is widespread and diverse in China, providing a large gene pool for further recombination. Moreover, presence in asynptomatic ducks would suggest asymptomatic waterfowl could silently transmit H5N1 bird flu throughout Asia, bringing in new sequences and new problems each season.

These data also highlight the unusual lethality of H5N1 in waterfowl in Qingahi and Xinjiang provinces, which are cause for concern.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06270502/H5N1_Japan_Import.html
 

Martin

Deceased
Momentum builds for cell-culture flu vaccines
Amy L. Becker Staff Writer


Jun 27, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – You've got to gather a lot of eggs to supply the world with influenza vaccine, but that might change before long.

As governments and scientists wrestle with how best to protect people from the annual onslaught of typical flu and the unpredictable attack of pandemic flu, they're seeking alternatives to egg-based vaccines.

A production method common to other vaccines, cell culture, is increasingly gaining currency. Cell-culture technology involves growing key vaccine components in human, monkey, canine, insect, or other cells in enclosed vats.

The process has been used for vaccines such as polio, hepatitis A, chickenpox, and shingles, said Robin Robinson, PhD, senior project officer for the Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness in the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Growing flu vaccines in cell cultures would mark a huge departure from the traditional method.

The decades-old production method used today involves growing vaccines in fertilized chicken eggs. It depends on the availability of hundreds of millions of eggs and requires adapting the virus strain to grow in eggs. The production process takes at least 6 months, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. And in the event of an emergency, there is no way to quickly scale up the supply, since eggs must be ordered in advance.

With cell-culture methods, the virus does not need to be adapted for growth in eggs, and in an emergency, manufacturers could boost production without waiting for chickens to lay enough eggs. Although estimates vary as to how much time would be saved with cell-culture production, experts familiar with both methods say it could shorten the process by at least a month.

Besides being faster, production of cell-culture vaccines is considered safer and cleaner than egg-based systems because it uses a closed system of bioreactors.

An improving climate
Despite the disadvantages of egg-based vaccines, however, there has been little pressure to pursue cell culture. The functional egg-based infrastructure, the relatively low profits for flu vaccines, and the challenges of adapting the flu virus for cell culture production have slowed research and development, authorities say.

Egg-based vaccines "have always been a very cheap product, and there was never a real incentive in the industry to change that process," explained Manon Cox, DrS, MBA, chief operating officer of Protein Sciences Corp. in Meriden, Conn., in a recent interview. Protein Sciences is developing a cell-culture flu vaccine using caterpillar cells.

The climate for cell-culture flu vaccines is improving because of shortages in the US vaccine supply and the growing fear that the next pandemic could be brewing right now in Southeast Asia.

While some companies have been researching cell-culture techniques for years, others now have incentives to join the push. The United States has worked in the last year and a half to encourage a number of contracts to "secure, expand, and diversify the influenza vaccine supply in the United States" for both seasonal and pandemic flu, Robinson said.

HHS in April awarded vaccine maker Sanofi Pasteur a $97 million, 5-year contract to develop cell-culture technology. The contract is for developing the technology and design for a facility to manufacture at least 300 million doses of vaccine for use in a pandemic.

HHS has already issued another request for proposals to boost flu vaccine research and development, Robinson said. The contracts call for producing a pandemic flu–like vaccine that must go through phase 1 and 2 clinical trials "so they have a candidate that will be both safe and immunogenic," he said.

Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program at HHS, explained why it's important to end the era of the egg in testimony before a congressional subcommittee on Apr 12:

"Using a cell culture approach to producing influenza vaccine offers a number of benefits. Vaccine manufacturers can bypass the step needed to adapt the virus strains to grow in eggs. In addition, cell culture–based influenza vaccines will help meet surge capacity needs in the event of a pandemic or shortage. US licensure and manufacture of influenza vaccines produced in cell culture will also provide security against risks associated with egg-based production, such as the potential for egg supplies to be contaminated by various poultry-based diseases."

Cell-based techniques would allow manufacturers to double or triple vaccine production, from, say, 10 million doses a week to perhaps 20 million or 30 million, Robinson said.

In addition, safety could be greatly improved with cell-culture vaccines, he noted. Egg-based vaccine production involves open systems, whereas cell-culture production involves a bioreactor, which is a closed system. Cell-culture technology far safer from contamination by pathogens, which would be of crucial importance in the event of a pandemic, he said.

Caterpillar cells as vaccine factories
Sanofi Pasteur is but one of several companies working to develop cell-culture flu vaccine, according to a list Robinson compiled. They include Solvay Pharmaceuticals of the Netherlands, Baxter in Austria, Chiron in Germany, GlaxoSmithKline in Belgium, ID Biomedical of Canada, and Medimmune in the United States. None of the vaccines is on the market yet.

"Today everybody is trying to do this," said Cox, of Protein Sciences.

Protein Sciences is betting on the baculovirus system for its cell culture flu vaccine. The baculovirus has a reputation in nature for easily infecting insect cells, Cox said.

Protein Sciences' process starts with recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA), she said. Hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) are the surface proteins of the flu virus. H helps the virus bind to and enter host cells, and N enables new copies of the virus to leave a cell so they can infect others.

The rHA is essentially zipped up like DNA, creating a more stable, less shift-prone blueprint, Cox said. The rHA is inserted into a baculovirus, and the baculovirus is added to caterpillar cells.

"The rest happens on its own," Cox said. "There's an infection, the baculovirus infects the insect cells, and it sets about producing the product of interest [baculovirus copies containing rHA]. The insect cell is a little factory, which is now starting to produce whatever that baculovirus wants it to produce."

"Vaccine manufacturers have recognized that this baculovirus system is an enormously powerful system to make vaccines against viral or parasitic diseases," she said. "We need to convince venture capitalists and other partners that this is indeed the product to go for," she added. It will probably be 3 years before the company seeks FDA approval.

The company's efforts may have taken a stride forward with the announcement in mid-June of preliminary results from its initial field efficacy study of the FluBlOk vaccine, made through the process described above.

The study included 460 healthy people aged 18 to 49 at three US sites, according to a news release from the company. Subjects were injected with one of two different formulations of FluBlOk, with the same amount of H3 antigen but two different amounts of H1 and influenza B antigens, or with a placebo. The 135-microgram dose was 100% efficacious in preventing culture-positive influenza compared with the placebo, the company said. In addition, the vaccine groups had a 50% lower rate of flu-like illness than the placebo group.

The trial showed safety and induced strong antibody responses against influenza in all vaccinated subjects, the company said, adding that final assessments are still under way.

Seeking licensing in the Netherlands, US
The Dutch company Solvay Pharmaceuticals has been working on a cell-culture flu vaccine since the early 1990s, according to Bram Palache, MSC, PhD, biochemist and global medical affairs director for influenza vaccines.

Solvay's vaccine is made in canine cells, a line that has been approved for use in the Netherlands, although it wasn't approved when Solvay selected it, Palache said. The company is in the process of validating its factory, and hopes to make clinical lots there this year. From there it's a relatively short step to final licensure of the flu vaccine for use in the Netherlands, he added.

Solvay is seeking US Food and Drug Administration approval of the flu vaccine and the cell line used to produce it, Palache said. He was not ready to speculate on how long it might be before the vaccine would be available in the US.

The importance of alternatives to eggs for vaccine production came home to Solvay in 2003, when the company lost chickens during an outbreak of H7N7 avian flu in the Netherlands. The company had to scramble to get approval to bring in eggs from disease-free areas so it could produce flu vaccine on time.

"We had a real-life situation where the vulnerability of eggs for the production of influenza vaccines was really making the difference between having vaccine and having no vaccine," Palache said. "There's nothing wrong with egg production per se. But once the cell-culture vaccine is implemented . . . more companies will come in, using that technology. Ultimately it will replace the current production technology."

Cell culture just part of US strategy
Robinson cautioned that in the flu vaccine arena, there are more pressing short-term goals than developing cell-culture technology. "We approach it in two phases. One is preparedness to hopefully have stockpiles of a virus that is as close as we think it can be to the [potential pandemic] threat. And then to have the manufacturers ready to go with virus seed strain. And then to have the capacity."

The short-term US goals are aimed at improving the current flu vaccine production processes to improve yield and making the available vaccine supplies stretch further, he said. The goals include developing adjuvants to boost immune response and finding alternative methods for injecting the vaccine.

Robinson said he wants the nation to have the surge capacity to produce at least 20 million doses of monovalent vaccine per week by 2009.

Ultimately, what the United States would need for a pandemic flu strain is 600 million doses of vaccine—two doses for every American. Compare that with the numbers for the 2004-05 flu season: Authorities hoped to have 100 million doses available, but obtained only 61 million. The leap from the unmet goal of 100 million doses to 600 million is so daunting that even experts such as Robinson break down the numbers.

"That's why we like to talk about it in terms of weeks," he said.

And while cell-culture technology may improve flu vaccine production capacity, it is not a panacea for the challenge of a flu pandemic. A vaccine cannot be specifically tailored to a pandemic virus until the virus emerges, so even with cell-culture technology, an optimal vaccine would not be available for the first several months of a pandemic.

Moreover, only nine countries have the capacity to produce flu vaccine on a commercial scale. The advent of cell-culture technology does not automatically solve the problem that current global annual production capacity is fewer than 1 billion doses of flu vaccine in a world of more than 6 billion people—or the challenge of actually administering vaccine to billions of people in a pandemic situation. And even if the United States could eventually secure enough doses for its own population, the nation would not be immune to the global economic disruption that a pandemic would cause.

Aside from pandemic-related concerns, Palache said that switching production methods won't address a key problem with flu vaccine: demand.

"[Neither] Solvay nor any other company will produce three times as much vaccine just because they can do it if by the end of the day it isn't sold. Flu vaccines can't be put on the shelf for the next year," he said. "Whether they're eggs or cells, demand drives supply."


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/june2705cell.html
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
Calls for urgent testing of migratory birds in China for avian flu

http://www.abc.net.au/ra/news/stories/s1402620.htm

The United Nations is warning an outbreak of avian flu in China is more lethal than first thought.

A total of 5,000 birds have died on an island in northwest China's Qinghai province, according to officials from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The experts from WHO and FAO have just returned from a visit to the area and say previous reports had indicated only 1,000 migratory birds had died on the island.

"This is the first time we've seen large numbers of migratory birds dying from bird flu," said WHO spokesperson Julie Hall.

"So the virus has obviously changed to be more pathogenic to animals. What it means to humans we don't know," she told reporters in Beijing.

There are 189 species of birds on the island, but so far Chinese officials have only tested five, the WHO and FAO experts said.

The migratory birds are still on the island, but they will begin flying off to other parts of China and to neighboring countries in about a month.
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06280502/H5N1_WHO_Qinghai_Scandalous.html


Commentary
.
Scandalous H5N1 Testing of Migratory Birds and Humans in Qinghai

Recombinomics Commentary
June 28, 2005

>> Hall urged the Chinese government to carry out more testing for the deadly H5N1 flu virus, saying only 12 dead birds and two people have been tested, with the people coming up negative.

"What we want to see is more testing going on," she said at a news conference. <<

The fact that only two tests on people have been reported is remarkable. Over a month ago China held a news conference and indicated over 1000 birds had died and the H5N1 die-off was without precedent. They also indicated that there were no reported human cases. However, since only two people were tested, the lack of reported human cases is virtually meaningless.

At the time of the press conference last month, third party reports (Boxun via Abundant News) were available which indicated 6 tourists and 121 residents of 18 communities had died and another 79 residents were infected. Recent rumors indicate local papers are reporting additional deaths.

Today's WHO media conference indicates that almost two months after the initial bar headed goose was found and over a month after the OIE filing, China is reporting test on two patients and 12 dead birds.

These reports clearly show that surveillance efforts in China is inadequate. An unpcoming report on H5N1 isolated from duck meat imported fro China destined for Japan is further evidence of a lack of surveillance in China. The upcoming report is similar to an earlier report of H5N1 isolated from duck meat imported from China destined for South Korea. In both instances, the duck meat was imported for human consumption and many samples were positive for H5N1. The H5N1 in the upcoming article was isolated in 2003 and the virus is can grow in mice without adaptation and is neurotropic.

Moreover, since the Qinghai outbreak was filed with OIE, there have been two additional filings on outbreaks in adjacent Xinjaing province. In each case over half of the domestic ducks and geese were infected and half of the infected birds had died. Tacheng is located 5 miles from the Kazakhstan border and about 100 miles from birders with Mongolia and Russia. The geese in Tacheng began dying in May, strongly suggesting that H5N1 has already migrated to the three adjacent countries.

The lack of testing at Qinghai Lake leaves open the question of asymptomatic infections in the migratory birds which could transmit H5N1 throughout Asia. Qinghai Lake lies within the intersection of the eastern flyway as well as the Central-South Asian flyway. The two flyways cover virtually all of Asia. Limited tagging of bar headed geese has identified migration into the southern part of India where poultry workers have tested positive for H5N1 antibodies.

Clearly widespread screening of migratory birds and people is long overdue. China has never reported a human H5N1 infection and India has never reported H5N1 in humans or birds.

Surveillance of H5N1 bird flu in Asia remains scandalously poor.
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
Three blogs have joined together to create a flu wiki. Information will be updated daily. I think it will be a good place to check for items we may have missed.
http://www.fluwikie.com/

Tuesday, June 28, 2005
Something wiki this way came: the first day

Somewhere around 7 am EDST on June 27, 2005, the Flu Wiki was announced on the three initiating blogs (Just a Bump in the Beltway, The Next Hurrah, Effect Measure). By midnight EDST the site had received almost 1500 visits and an incredible 8000 page views. Average visit length was over 20 minutes.
Just a Bump in the Beltway http://www.node707.com/
http://thenexthurrah.typepad.com/the_next_hurrah/
http://www.effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

Whatever else this means, there is a lot of interest in this subject. We hope that interest will translate into contributions and participation in the wiki. We have already seen some copy edits, corrections and expressions of intention-to-contribute. For those who have yet to visit or haven't spent much time on the site, there are three areas you might look at now.

* Under Basic Scientific Info (left sidebar) you will find several influenza "Primers", extended essays meant to provide basic scientific information on influenza as a respiratory infection, on the virus itself, and a new one on "cytokine storm." These essays were written to be read by lay people but they do not oversimplify the science. They are written by a scientist but it is important specialists in virology check, correct, expand, clarify, amend, delete or whatever is appropriate to make them the best, most accurate and up-to-date information available for the intended audience. Addition of links, references and images are especially needed. There is no pride of authorship on a wiki. Only pride in the best product.

* In the Experience of Others and Draft Plans section, clicking on states, regions and countries will get you to a list. Clicking on a state will get you to a page that probably says "Content to be added" (but see California). Go to your state health department's website and see what's there. If they have a flu site or information, click "edit" in the upper right of the wiki page and enter the link and any additional annotation text you want to. Links are done like this: [[URL|link text]]. You need to put in a name (your choice) and some text in the summary box (in this case it might be "link added"). You can preview it, but before it will be posted you have to hit Save. That's it. You've contributed.

Consider that when all the states are filled in we will have the first "all in one place" guide and comparison of what the states are doing on influenza. And we can accomplish this very quickly with everyone's help. They (and you) can use it to compare your state with others and get ideas.

* Finally, there are two amazing scenarios you will find under Anticipated consequences and solutions, Imagined Scenarios. One was done seven months ago by a Canadian citizen who wondered what a flu pandemic would be like. It is a very impressive, fully imagined piece. The other is the (now famous) Nature fictional blog of Declan Butler. Also very impressive, scientifically accurate and chilling.

In less than a single day this wiki has gone from a standing start to almost full speed ahead. Hop on. There's a lot of work to do and we don't know how much time to do as much as we can.

posted by Revere at http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com
 
Last edited:

Kim99

Veteran Member
The Epoch Times

By Cindy Drukier and Jan Jekielek
Jun 28, 2005

A duck farmer in rural Thailand tends his flock. Ducks living in close proximity to humans are thought to be one of the likely transmission points for the coming avian influenza epidemic. (Jan Jekielek/The Epoch Times)
High-resolution image (1280 x 850 pixels, 72 dpi)
An influenza pandemic is coming- public health experts worldwide agree. The main questions remaining are, when it will happen, and how effectively our health care systems will respond to it.

“There’s no way to nip this thing in the bud, it will happen. It’s just a question of when,” said Dr. Trevor Corneil, Clinical Associate Professor at Canada’s University of British Columbia and part of the province’s avian flu pandemic planning team.

Colloquially known as the ‘bird flu’, the avian influenza H5N1 strain first raised eyebrows about its potential to develop into a pandemic in January 2004. At that time, a deadly bird epidemic was sweeping across Asia and appearing in pockets of Europe and North America. It devastated poultry farmers with the loss of over 100 million birds either from the disease itself or preventative culling. The alarm bells really started ringing about 18 months ago when the flu “jumped the species barrier,” and for the first time and began appearing in humans in Thailand and Vietnam.

Now there is mounting evidence of human-to-human transfer, an essential precondition for a pandemic to emerge. According to a recent World Health Organization (WHO) report, although no human-to-human infection has been confirmed, in Vietnam “the pattern of disease appear to have changed in a manner consistent with this possibility.”

There are a variety of reasons why experts are bracing for the worst. One is that “major outbreaks happen every 15-25 years,” according to Corneil. “It’s now been over 30 years…we’re due.” The worst outbreak of the 20th century was the 1918-19 Spanish Flu, which killed over 50 million worldwide; it also began as an avian virus.

Another cause for concern is the high fatality rate of those already infected. Of the 100 H5N1 human cases recorded by the WHO in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, 55 have died. “An H5N1 virus with this ability could lead to a global pandemic and many millions of deaths worldwide,” warns the WHO report.

In Canada, Corneil anticipates that “20 percent of all Canadians will be infected including one-third of health care providers.” This, he concludes, will have massive implications on health services delivery, as well as the economy, with that many people off work.

Australian Health Minister, Tony Abbott, estimates his country could see “2.6 million Australians seeking medical attention, 58,000 needing hospitalization and 13,000 deaths.”

The American Center for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that even a “medium-level pandemic” would affect “between 15 percent and 35 percent of the US population” and 2 to 7.4 million would die worldwide.

The potential good news is that the worst might be avoided given advances in global disease surveillance and strategic planning, particularly since SARS. The crucial piece of the containment puzzle, however, will be the effectiveness of communication between global health authorities.

Therein lies the rub. The system breaks down if information isn’t shared quickly and completely.
Many people are questioning the reliability of the reporting from within China’s borders, in first part due to the Chinese government’s initial cover-up of the SARS epidemic.

“There is a question about China,” says Corneil, describing the situation there as “a big mystery.” Until recently, during the extensive bird flu outbreaks in eight Asian countries, China admitted to only 50 cases which it “successfully…brought under control,” according to China’s state-controlled media.

On May 21 of this year, the Chinese media confirmed the Qinghai province deaths of 178 wild geese as a result of infection from the H5N1 virus. On May 24, the independent US-based Chinese website Boxun News reported that 121 people in 18 villages had died in Qinghai due to “bird flu infection.” Another 1,300 people were reportedly in isolation.

According to the report, “some of the family members of the victims have received warnings. If they keep the secret, the authorities will compensate the family members. Otherwise, they will be punished with the charge of ‘deliberately spreading rumors to harm public security’.”

The Boxun News website gathers its news from local reporters inside of China, and admits that it cannot verify this report. It is worth noting however that the first reports of SARS in China, published by the ProMED-mail website of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, were taken from Boxun articles.

Two days after the Boxun News story came out, the Chinese state-run media reported health officials as saying that, “No human infection of avian flu or unexplained pneumonia case has been detected in northwest China's Qinghai Province.”

“There’s an ongoing struggle around what actually has happened [in China]…between the WHO and China. Scientists and doctors [are] saying one thing, and the government [is] saying another. You just don’t have the political interference [with respect to] information that is released…in most other countries,” says Corneil.

As of yet, there has been no independent corroboration of human infections, or lack thereof, in Qinghai or elsewhere. However, China’s past record and the increasing numbers of H5N1 cases in Chinese fowl are making many international experts very nervous. On June 8, H5N1 was reported by ProMED to have emerged in China again, with 1042 geese infected and 460 dead, according to the Veterinary Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture.

The WHO highlights the need for the world to take action well before “there is unmistakable evidence that the virus has become sufficiently transmissible among people to allow a pandemic to develop.” To head off a worst-case scenario, honest and timely disclosure of human H5N1 infections in China is not only beneficial, but absolutely essential.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-6-28/29866.html
__________________
 

Martin

Deceased
5,000 birds die of avian flu in China


Associated Press


June 28, 2005





BEIJING -- Avian flu has killed 5,000 wild birds in China's northwest, the World Health Organization said Tuesday, five times the number previously reported by the Chinese government.

Twenty birds a day are still dying in Qinghai province, but that rate is falling and the outbreak appears to be winding down, said a member of a WHO team that visited the remote region last week with Chinese health officials.

Chinese authorities haven't killed any birds to prevent the spread of the disease because they are rare, protected species, said Dr. Julie Hall, WHO's China-based coordinator for communicable diseases, surveillance and response.

The 5,000 dead birds came from five species and included gulls, geese, shelduck and cormorant, according to the World Organization for Animal Health Web site.

Hall urged the Chinese government to carry out more testing for the deadly H5N1 flu virus, saying only 12 dead birds and two people have been tested, with the people coming up negative.

"What we want to see is more testing going on," she said at a news conference.

China reported in May that 178 geese had been found dead in Qinghai Lake, a vast saltwater lake in Qinghai that is a major transit point for migratory birds. Authorities later raised that to 519 and then to about 1,000 in late May. The official toll hasn't changed since then.

The government's early reluctance to release information about the outbreak fueled concern about a possible cover-up and rumors on Web sites that as many as 120 people had died of the flu. Chinese authorities deny that any people have been infected.



http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=466af3b4-758f-4749-bda8-02b1c7956469
 

Martin

Deceased
China's Bird Flu Outbreak May Spread, UN Bodies Say (Update2)

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- An outbreak of bird flu in western China's Qinghai province may spread to other provinces and possibly other countries, carried by migratory birds that have the virus, two international health teams said in Beijing.

Health workers have a ``narrow window of opportunity'' to determine whether birds not killed by the virus in Qinghai, where bird flu has killed 5,000 migratory geese and other birds since early May, are carriers capable of infecting species in other areas, said Julie Hall, Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response coordinator with the World Health Organization.

``We have no idea whether the other 184 species in the area are asymptomatic carriers,'' Hall said in a joint press briefing with the Food and Agricultural Organization. ``There is limited tagging and understanding of where they migrate to,'' when they begin moving in August and September.

The WHO is concerned that H5N1, a virus strain that killed migratory birds in Qinghai, may mutate into a strain easily transmissible between humans, and is urging China to sample other species in the area.

The Geneva-based arm of the United Nations also wants China to share the gene sequence for the virus that killed the birds in Qinghai to determine whether it's different or more threatening to humans than strains found elsewhere in the region.

Last week, teams from WHO and FAO arrived in Qinghai to inspect the site of an outbreak of avian influenza and see how prepared remote parts of China are in dealing with an outbreak.

Japanese Poultry

``We see avian flu to be an international issue that requires international cooperation,'' said Liu Jianchao, spokesman of China's Foreign Ministry. ``We are willing to cooperate with the WHO and international community on fighting epidemics.''

China reported this month that 2,177 geese may have the virus in Tacheng city in neighboring Xinjiang province. A similar outbreak among migratory birds in neighboring Qinghai province last month killed 1,000 migratory birds, Jia Youling, director- general of the veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture in Beijing, said on May 27.

Japanese authorities ordered the slaughter of all 25,000 chickens at a poultry farm north of Tokyo after a weak strain of the H5N1 virus, called H5N2, was identified as the cause of deaths among the chickens that started in April, the Asahi Shimbun reported. The cull at the farm in Mitsukaido, Ibaraki Prefecture, began yesterday and will be completed this week, the paper said.

The WHO has called on governments to prepare for an influenza pandemic, similar to those that killed between 20 million and 40 million people worldwide in 1918-1919, about 1 million in 1957- 1958 and between 1 million and 4 million in 1968-69. Scientists fear populations will have no immunity to a mutated strain of avian influenza.

The H5N1 strain first emerged in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed 38 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia, the WHO reported June 17.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=asia&sid=aluwspnmXb94
 

Martin

Deceased
Japanese officials say avian flu outbreak may have been more extensive earlier


Canadian Press


Tuesday, June 28, 2005


TOKYO (AP) - Japanese agricultural officials said Tuesday they suspect that cases of avian flu at a farm in northeastern Japan may have been part of a larger outbreak that has since receded.

The Agriculture Ministry said Sunday that some of the more than 800 chickens that died since April at a farm in Mitsukaido City in Ibaraki prefecture (state), just northeast of Tokyo, had been infected with the H5N2 strain of avian flu, considered less dangerous than the H5N1 strain that ravaged Asia last year.

On Tuesday, lab tests found that chickens at the five farms closest to the infected farm had developed antibodies to the virus in their blood, ministry official Hiroaki Ogura said. Blood tests were conducted on chickens at all 16 farms within a five-kilometre radius of the farm with the outbreak, which are banned from shipping any birds or eggs until officials can confirm there are no further infections.

Chickens at the remaining 11 farms tested negative, according to results late Tuesday, Ogura said.

The blood tests indicated that some chickens at nearby farms were exposed to avian flu but survived, Ogura said. The tested birds no longer had the virus, he said, indicating that the outbreak could have been more widespread at one point but later receded.

With no virus found at the other farms, officials believe there is no need for culling at the five farms where birds have avian flu antibodies. The ministry will hold a meeting of experts on Wednesday to discuss further steps, Ogura said.

Officials began culling chickens at the farm with the outbreak on Monday, and so far have killed about half of its 25,000 chickens.

The H5N2 strain has not been known to infect humans, according to the ministry, unlike the H5N1 strain that crossed over to humans and killed a total of 54 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said the risk of human infection from H5N2 is likely to be low.

Examinations of workers at farms in the affected area showed no signs of human infection, Ogura said.



http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=39e77029-68fd-4bab-bc36-ee29f4f1744d
 

Martin

Deceased
700 Bird Flu Deaths of Patients in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
June 28, 2005

>> The understanding about the death personnel's information report is, China official already through unorthodox way under *fund, but understands information is dies one person of country compensates 80000 Yuan. Says regarding many epidemic diseases areas personnel, 80000 Yuan are equal to the local resident approximately 60 years income.

Before we understand the information is dies more than 100 people, but acts according to understands actual under dials compensates the fund surpassed 60000000, moreover more than 60000000 only is to death personnel's compensate, does not include to infects personnel's medical service allocates funds. <<


The above machine translated test from a Boxun report at Abundant News suggests that there may be as many as 700 H5N1 bird flu victims based on the size of the compensation fund. The fund is for death benefits and does not included medical costs or compensation to families where there are no survivors.

The story has not been verified, but is available online at www.peacehall.com. Reports from last month indicated 6 tourists and 121 residents in Qinghai Provoince had died from bird flu, along with over 8000 birds. The latest update from WHO indicating over 5000 birds had died is closer to the boxun number than the 519 birds in the OIE report or the over 1000 birds mentioned in the follow-up press conference

China has said they have only test two people who had contact with the birds and had bird flu symptoms, including respiratory illness. Although they tested negative, China has never reported a positive bird flu patient and they have asked for testing of their primers. Mismatched primers in northern and southern Vietnam have produced false negatives, so the status of the two patient is unclear because China did not indicate what organism caused the bird flu symptoms. Therefore, China has admitted that there are at least two suspect bird flu cases in Qinghai, although there has been no lab verification.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06280504/H5N1_China_700.html
 

Martin

Deceased
EDITORIAL / The bird flu scare
06/29/2005



Tens of thousands of chickens are being culled at a poultry farm in Ibaraki Prefecture that was found to be infected with avian flu. Unlike the H5N1 strain that killed a huge number of chickens in Yamaguchi, Kyoto and other prefectures last year, the current H5N2 strain is considered quite weak.

No chickens have been infected outside the farm and there is little likelihood of the virus spreading.

Also, there is little likelihood of humans becoming infected. Even if people consume the flesh and eggs of infected chickens, they will not get the disease. It is unheard of for the H5N2 strain to affect humans. For this reason, we urge consumers not to be unduly worried and try to be cool-headed.

But even after the dust settles this time around, we should not relax our vigilance against bird flu. Problems will occur if pigs are infected with avian flu along with the influenza bug that strikes humans. That could create a new and highly contagious strain.

Humans are not immune to new strains of virus, as is evident by the Spanish influenza pandemic early in the 20th century.

At present, the highly virulent H5N1 strain is prevalent across Asia. In Vietnam, it claimed many lives. It apparently transforms itself in a way to make it contagious to humans.

The World Health Organization warns that it would not be surprising if a new type of influenza emerges at any moment. For this reason, WHO urges governments to redouble their precautions.

In dealing with bird flu, the iron rule is to detect it and contain it at the earliest possible time. Last year, a chicken farmer did not report mass deaths of his chickens and shipped the meat to dealers. Learning from this case, the agricultural ministry ordered farmers to report each week to their prefectural governments on chicken death numbers.

This year, chicken deaths started to rise in April. But the prefectural government failed to detect an irregularity because the figure was not unusually large. Bird flu was only confirmed after the poultry farmer asked a private testing organization in late May to conduct tests. Thanks to this man's quick thinking, it is probably fair to say the spread of bird flu was quickly contained.

As of the end of April, poultry farmers were no longer obliged to issue weekly reports on chicken deaths. That is because new arrangements were put in place for reporting such outbreaks. Also, there had been no case of bird flu during the winter, when the virus is most likely to be present.

Even though this reporting system did not help in the case of Ibaraki Prefecture, we think it is desirable that poultry farmers continue reporting when their livestock are dying. There is no getting around the fact that vigilance against bird flu is being exercised on a global basis.

Prefectural governments should conduct tests proactively when they receive chicken farmers' reports that hint at the presence of bird flu virus.

Different government ministries handle the problem of flu viruses. If chickens are infected, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries takes charge; if humans are infected, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare comes on the scene; if wild birds are infected, it is the duty of the Environment Ministry to handle. In addition, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology oversees basic research into the viruses.

Bird flu results from viruses carried by wild birds. It is possible for mutations to occur that can infect humans. In dealing with new types of influenza, it is essential that various branches of government should work together and keep a close watch over the situation.

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 28(IHT/Asahi: June 29,2005)

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200506290106.html
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five other chicken farms had been hit by avian flu
06/29/2005

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200506290185.html

The Asahi Shimbun

Chickens at five farms near the one recently hit by the bird flu virus in Ibaraki Prefecture showed signs they had also been infected with the disease, the agricultural ministry said Tuesday.

The five farms are located 500 to 600 meters from the area in Mitsukaido where a diluted strain of avian flu virus was confirmed. The birds at the five farms were found carrying the antibody to the disease, indicating the birds had been infected with the virus.

The exact type of virus has yet to be confirmed, officials also said.

Although health officials said there is no possibility of people becoming infected from eating the chicken meat and eggs from those farms, the avian flu-infected area could become larger than initially thought.

The ministry panel on poultry disease will study Wednesday the necessity of destroying the chickens raised at the five farms.

Government workers are in the process of culling 25,000 chickens at the infected farm in Mitsukaido.

After the emergence of avian flu was confirmed on Sunday, the Ibaraki prefectural government and other authorities conducted a series of tests at chicken farms within a 5-kilometer radius of the flu-hit farm. Transport of poultry, eggs and other items is banned within the 5-km range.

According to Ibaraki prefectural government and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, examiners first collected 10 to 20 samples from chickens at 10 of the 16 farms located within the restricted area, and conducted antibody and other examinations.

Positive antibody results were found in 20 to 70 percent of the samples collected from chickens at the five farms close to the flu-hit farm. However, no virus was detected.

Experts said there is a possibility that a very weak strain of avian flu spread throughout the area without the farm operators' knowledge. But the strain was apparently too weak to kill the birds.

The farm ministry said there have been no reports about widespread deaths among chickens at the five farms.

However, the ministry has not confirmed if there has been a decrease in the egg-laying rate.

Samples were also taken at five other farms located 600 meters to 5 kilometers from the infected farm. The chickens tested negative for the antibody.

The agriculture ministry is also conducting tests on the six remaining farms in the restricted area.(IHT/Asahi: June 29,2005)
 

Morning Star

Groovy Hoosier
Kim99 said:
Three blogs have joined together to create a flu wiki. Information will be updated daily. I think it will be a good place to check for items we may have missed.
http://www.fluwikie.com/



* Finally, there are two amazing scenarios you will find under Anticipated consequences and solutions, Imagined Scenarios. One was done seven months ago by a Canadian citizen who wondered what a flu pandemic would be like. It is a very impressive, fully imagined piece. The other is the (now famous) Nature fictional blog of Declan Butler. Also very impressive, scientifically accurate and chilling.




Hey....that's CanadaSue's scenario!
 

CGTech

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Morning Star said:
Hey....that's CanadaSue's scenario!

That was the first time I had read her scenario. Damn she's good! Scary and realistic as hell.

Think I'm gonna go and prep some more!
 

Martin

Deceased
Avian Flu: A State of Unreadiness Mike Davis
Wed Jun 29, 2:04 PM ET



The Nation -- Avian influenza is a viral asteroid on a collision course with humanity. Since the horrific autumn of 1918, when a novel influenza killed more than 2 percent of humanity in a few months, scientists have dreaded the reappearance of a wild flu strain totally new to the human immune system.

The flu subtype known as H5N1, which claimed its first victims in Hong Kong in 1997, is that nightmare come true. Now endemic in waterfowl and poultry throughout East Asia, it is the most lethal strain of influenza ever seen, killing chickens, people and even tigers with terrifying ease.

Although avian flu officially has taken fewer than 100 human lives so far (mainly farmers and their children in daily contact with poultry), most experts believe that H5N1 is on the verge of acquiring the new genes or amino acids that would enable it to travel at pandemic velocity across a densely urbanized world, with the potential, warns the World Health Organization, to cause 20 million deaths.

Since early spring, moreover, all the biological weather vanes have been pointing in the direction of imminent pandemic. In Vietnam the virus has suddenly increased its transmissibility, with several likely human-to-human cases. In China, where officials now admit that more than 1,000 migratory birds have died, there are unofficial Internet reports--strongly denied by Beijing--of 120 related human fatalities. In an unprecedented collaboration to sound the tocsin, Nature and Foreign Affairs have recently devoted special issues to the "plausible scenario" of a pandemic that kills millions and wrecks the global economy.

Governments have had ample warning, unlike the surprise of HIV/AIDS, that a new plague is coming. Indeed, Washington has had almost nine years to heed the advice of top influenza experts and mobilize the nation's resources to battle H5N1 in Asia and at home. The Bush Administration's failure to do so makes "homeland security" into a sick joke whose punch line may be a repetition of the 1918 catastrophe.

This past December 3, Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Tommy Thompson held a press conference to announce his resignation. His tenure ended with a note of frankness rare in the Bush era. Unlike the previous seven Cabinet members purged in the President's postelection housecleaning, Thompson, according to the New York Times, "gave candid, unexpected answers to questions posed to him." Asked what worried him most, Thompson cited the threat of a human flu pandemic. "This is a really huge bomb that could adversely impact on the healthcare of the world," killing 30 million to 70 million people, he said.

The Secretary, of course, spoke with the authority of someone with access to the best medical intelligence in the world, but reporters were undoubtedly surprised that Thompson was so alarmed about a peril that his department, with its $543 billion annual budget--a quarter of the federal total--had done so little to address. In the 2005 fiscal year, for example, Thompson had allocated more funds to "abstinence education" than to the development of an avian influenza vaccine that might save millions of lives. This is but one example of the way that all Americans, but especially children, the elderly and the uninsured, have been placed in harm's way by the Bush regime's bizarre skewing of public-health priorities. On Thompson's watch, HHS and the Pentagon spent more than $12 billion to safeguard national security against largely hypothetical threats like smallpox and anthrax, even as they pursued a penny-pinching strategy to deal with the most dangerous and likely "bioterrorist": avian influenza. The Administration's lackadaisical response to the pandemic threat (despite Secretary Thompson's personal anxiety) is only the tip of the iceberg. Over the past generation, writes Lancet editor Richard Horton, "the U.S. public-health system has been slowly and quietly falling apart."

Under Democrats as well as Republicans, Washington has looked the other way as local health departments have lost funding and crucial hospital "surge capacity" has been eroded in the wake of the HMO revolution. The government has also refused to address the growing lack of new vaccines and antibiotics caused by the pharmaceutical industry's withdrawal from sectors it considers to be insufficiently profitable; moreover, revolutionary breakthroughs in vaccine design and manufacturing technology have languished because of lack of sponsorship by either the government or the drug industry.

In October 2000 the GAO scolded HHS for making so little progress in the development of an avian flu vaccine. It warned that the United States might have only a month (or less) of warning before a pandemic became widespread, and it accused HHS of failing to develop contingency plans to insure expanded vaccine-manufacturing capacity. It also pointed to a major contradiction in business-as-usual reliance on the private sector: "Because no market exists for vaccine after [flu season], manufacturers switch their capacity to other uses between about mid-August and December." At minimum, HHS needed to find some way to keep production lines running full time, all year long, as well as diversify the number of companies committed to vaccine production. In addition, the GAO chided HHS for dithering over whether to stockpile antivirals, even as top influenza experts were begging the government to procure as much oseltamivir (Tamiflu)--the most potent antiviral medicine for avian flu now available--as possible. Finally, the audit faulted HHS for poor coordination of the respective roles of the federal government, state agencies and private manufacturers. Almost eight years of "process," the GAO report implied, had failed to achieve a "plan" in any substantive or meaningful sense.

All the flaws in HHS's influenza program (particularly the lack of an antiviral stockpile and adequate vaccine-manufacturing capacity), were inherited by Thompson, the former governor of Wisconsin, described as a "a straight shooter" by Edward Kennedy. The Clinton Administration's handling of public-health issues had certainly been disappointing, but the incoming Bush Administration was frightening to everyone who had been fighting to prevent the total meltdown of urban public health. Then, in September 2001, a new dispensation suddenly arrived in the form of poisoned letters contaminated with "weaponized" anthrax. DNA sequencing would later reveal that the anthrax strain used in the attacks probably originated from the Army's own laboratory at Fort Detrick, Maryland, yet this probable "inside job" became the principal justification for national hysteria about the threat of "bioterrorism" supposedly posed by Iraq, Al Qaeda and other alien enemies of the United States.

With shockingly little debate and without any real evidence that such a threat even existed, most public-health advocacy groups, as well as such leading Democrats as John Edwards and Ted Kennedy, became ardent shareholders in the bioterrorism myth. Even the liberal Trust for America's Health glibly talked of an "Age of Bioterrorism," as if malevolent hands were already opening little vials of botulism and ebola on Main Street. In fact, the irresistible attraction of the so-called health/security nexus was the billions that the White House was proposing to spend on Project Bioshield, Bush's "major research and production effort to guard our people against bioterrorism." Many well-meaning people undoubtedly reasoned that, however farfetched the excuse, the Republicans were finally throwing money in a worthwhile direction and that some of the windfall would surely find its way to real needs after decades of neglect. Because the defensive preparations against bioterrorism borrowed heavily from pandemic planning, there was hope that influenza (previously shortchanged in the design of the National Pharmaceutical Stockpile in 1999) would be accorded its proper rank as a "most wanted" bioterrorist weapon.

Certainly the leading influenza researchers, from the first H5N1 outbreak in 1997, have been doing their utmost to alert medical colleagues worldwide to the urgent threat of avian flu, as well as outlining the immediate steps the Bush Administration and other governments needed to take. As befitted his position as "pope" of influenza researchers, Robert Webster of Saint Jude Hospital in Memphis tirelessly preached the same sermon: "If a pandemic happened today, hospital facilities would be overwhelmed and understaffed because many medical personnel would be afflicted with the disease. Vaccine production would be slow because many drug-company employees would also be victims. Critical community services would be immobilized. Reserves of existing vaccines, M2 inhibitors and NA inhibitors would be quickly depleted, leaving most people vulnerable to infection."

Webster stressed the particular urgency of increasing the production and stockpiling of the NA inhibitor Tamiflu. Because this strategic antiviral was "in woefully short supply"--it is made by Roche at a single factory in Switzerland--Webster and his colleagues underlined the need for resolute government action: "The cost of making the drugs, as opposed to the price the pharmaceutical companies charge consumers, would not be exorbitant. Such expenditure by governments would be a very worthwhile investment in the defense against this debilitating and often deadly virus." Failure to act would mean intense competition over the small inventory of life-saving Tamiflu. "Who should get these drugs?" Webster asked. "Healthcare workers and those in essential services, obviously, but who would identify those? There would not be nearly enough for those who needed them in the developed world, let alone the rest of the world's population."

Webster wasn't calling for miracles, just prudent action to insure an adequate antiviral stockpile. But for almost three years he and other influenza experts were ignored, as were those who argued more generally that "the best way to manage bioterrorism is to improve the management of existing public-health threats." The Bush Administration instead fast-tracked vaccination programs for smallpox and anthrax, based on fanciful scenarios that might have embarrassed Tom Clancy. In reality, the biodefense boom was designed to build support for the invasion of Iraq by sowing the fear that Saddam Hussein might use germ warfare against the United States. In any event, Washington spent $1 billion expanding a smallpox vaccine stockpile that some experts claim was already quite sufficient. Hundreds of thousands of GIs were forced to undergo the vaccinations, but front-line health workers--the second tier of the smallpox campaign--largely boycotted the Administration's attempts to cajole "voluntary" participation.

In spite of this fiasco and millions of doses of unused vaccine, the Administration pressed ahead with the development of second-generation smallpox and anthrax vaccines, as well as vaccines for such exotic plagues as ebola fever; it continued to reject the "all hazards" strategy recommended by most public-health experts in favor of a so-called "siloed approach" that focused on a short list of possible bioweapons. In testimony before the House of Representatives, Tommy Thompson explained that while "private investment should drive the development of most medical products," only the government was in a position to develop those products that "everyone hopes...will never be needed" as a protection against "rare yet deadly threats." The government, in other words, was willing to spend lots of money on biological threats that were unlikely or farfetched but not on antivirals or new antibiotics for the diseases that were actually most menacing, like avian flu.

As biodefense morphed into the biggest show in town (growing from $1 billion in fiscal 2002 to more than $5 billion in fiscal 2004), Thompson's perverse logic soon had perverse impacts that confounded the hopes of the biodefense boom's early enthusiasts. For example, instead of spurring a welcome trickle-down of money for research on big killers like influenza, malaria and tuberculosis, biodefense projects stole top laboratory talent away from major disease research. With the National Institutes of Health's research budget barely keeping pace with inflation (after its banquet days under Clinton), there was an irresistible tropism of researchers and research projects toward biodefense windfalls. Reporting on this new "brain drain," writer Merrill Goozner cited the case of a leading UCLA lab that phased out its "basic science research on TB in favor of studying tularemia [rabbit fever]"--a disease that has zero public-health importance--because the latter infection was "on the government's A-list of potential bioterrorism agents" and tuberculosis wasn't. (After workers at a different lab accidentally infected themselves with tularemia, some scientists expressed concern to the New York Times that "leaky" biodefense research may pose a menace to public health comparable to the still uncertain threat from bioterrorism.)

To many infectious-disease experts, Project Bioshield was Bush and Thompson's version of Alice's Adventures in Wonderland: with priorities established in inverse relation to actual probabilities of attack or outbreak. "It's too bad that Saddam Hussein's not behind influenza," complained Dr. Paul Offit, a dissident member of the government's advisory panel on vaccination. "We'd be doing a better job." Indeed, HHS's zeal to combat hypothetical bioterrorism contrasts with its incredible negligence in exercising oversight of the nation's "fragile" influenza vaccine supply. As the GAO had warned Clinton's HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, vaccine availability in a pandemic would depend on the stability and surge capacity of existing production lines. But as shocked Americans discovered in the winter of 2003-04 and again in early fall 2004, the entire vaccine manufacturing system had decayed almost to the point of collapse. While Bush and Thompson were trying to bribe the pharmaceutical industry to join Project Bioshield, the same industry was abdicating its elementary responsibility to maintain a lifeline of new vaccines and antibiotics. Products that actually cure or prevent disease, like vaccines and antibiotics, are less profitable, so infectious disease has largely become an orphan market. As industry analysts point out, worldwide sales for all vaccines produce less revenue than Pfizer's income from a single anticholesterol medication.

Thompson's successor, Mike Leavitt, has repeatedly reassured Congress and the public that the pandemic danger has the Administration's full attention and that he is receiving daily briefings on the worrisome situation in Asia. But in an extraordinary lecture at Harvard on June 1, Senate majority leader Bill Frist painted an apocalyptic picture of the chaos, even societal breakdown, that would ensue from our current lack of resources to deal with an avian flu or smallpox outbreak: "Hospitals and our long neglected public-health infrastructure would be quickly overwhelmed. In such a circumstance, panic, suffering and the spread of the disease would intensify.... Millions might perish, with whole families dying and no one to memorialize them." The Tennessee Republican, who long boasted of being the only doctor in the Senate, also blasted the government's failure to purchase an adequate stockpile of Tamiflu. "To acquire more antiviral agent, we would need to get in line behind Britain and France and Canada and others who have tens of millions of doses on order."

Without reference to billions already wasted, Frist proposed an urgent new Manhattan Project to protect the nation against avian flu and other infectious diseases and bioterrorist agents. From the heights of the Republican leadership it is hard to imagine a more devastating admission of the Administration's dereliction of duty to the health of the nation and the world.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/2...UD1xSU__8QF;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MXN1bHE0BHNlYwN0bWE-
 

Martin

Deceased
73-year-old Vietnamese dies of bird flu

www.chinaview.cn 2005-06-30 10:36:15

HANOI, June 30 (Xinhuanet) -- A 73-year-old person from Vietnam's Hanoi capital city died of bird flu, raising the total fatality in the country since late 2004 to 19, according to local newspaper Youth Thursday.

The patient died on June 28 after being admitted to the Hanoi-based Institute of Tropical Diseases on June 23. The institute is now treating 5 bird flu patients.

The World Health Organization has just announced its bird flu experts have not found any indications to show that the bird flu virus strain H5N1 is extending its range in humans. But it advisedVietnam and other countries to remain vigilant in their bird flu control efforts, as flu viruses are inclined to change frequently.

Recently, Vietnam's Health Ministry predicted that bird flu situations in the country could become worse in upcoming winter and spring, whose weather conditions are suitable to the development of the virus.

To prevent potential outbreaks, Vietnam's Veterinary Department will focus on 3 measures, namely banning poultry raising in inner areas of cities and towns, building concentrated fowl slaughterhouses and distribution networks and vaccinating poultry against bird flu viruses, the report quoted the departmenthead Bui Quang Anh as saying.

The ban will be imposed in 15 big cities at high risks of bird flu outbreaks, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, within this year, and then in other localities no later than 2007. The 15 cities must complete construction of concentrated slaughterhouses before 2007, and the other localities no later than 2010.

Anh said Vietnam will buy 20 million doses of bird flu vaccinesin the coming time. The country will start vaccinating fowls against bird flu viruses in northern Nam Dinh province and southern Tien Giang province on a trial basis in early August, andthen do the same in other localities with high risks of outbreaks in October, he noted.

Early this week, the Health Ministry confirmed that a total of 60 local people from the country's 23 localities had been infected with H5N1 since late December 2004, of whom 18 died.

Since the first bird flu patient was detected in Vietnam in late 2003, the country had detected 87 human cases of infections, including 38 fatalities, in 31 cities and provinces, the ministry said early this week. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-06/30/content_3156086.htm
 

Martin

Deceased
We're vulnerable
By Barack Obama and Richard Lugar


Wednesday, June 29, 2005 - When we think of the major threats to our national security, the first to come to mind are nuclear proliferation, rogue states and global terrorism. But another kind of threat lurks beyond our shores, one from nature, not humans an avian flu pandemic. An outbreak could cause millions of deaths, destabilize Southeast Asia (its likely place of origin) and threaten the security of governments around the world.

Earlier this year, Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called the possibility of avian flu spreading from Southeast Asia "a very ominous situation for the globe." A killer flu could spread around the world in days, crippling economies in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. From a public health standpoint, Dr. Gerberding said, an avian flu outbreak is "the most important threat that we are facing right now."

International health experts say that two of the three conditions for an avian flu pandemic in Southeast Asia have already been met. First, a new strain of the virus, called A(H5N1), has emerged, and humans have little or no immunity to it. Second, this strain can jump between species. The only remaining obstacle is that A(H5N1) has not yet mutated into a form that is easily transmitted from human to human.

However, there have been some alarming developments. In recent months, the virus has been detected in mammals that have never previously been infected, including tigers, leopards and domestic cats. This spread suggests that the virus is mutating and could eventually emerge in a form that is readily transmittable among humans, leading to a full-blown pandemic. In fact, according to government officials, a few cases of human-to-human spread of A(H5N1) have already occurred.

The precedent that experts fear is the 1918 flu pandemic, which began in the American Midwest and swept the planet in the era before air travel, killing 20 million to 40 million people. As John M. Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," has observed, "Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years."

At the moment, effective responses to an avian flu pandemic are limited and will come far too late for many people in Southeast Asia. Indeed, so far more than 60 percent of those diagnosed with the avian flu have died. There is no proven vaccine for the A(H5N1) strain and it could take months to produce a fully effective one. Moreover, while some antiviral treatments may help flu sufferers, they are not widely available and must be administered to patients within 24 hours after the onset of symptoms.

It is essential for the international community, led by the United States, to take decisive action to prevent a pandemic.

So what should we do? Recently, the World Health Organization called for more money and attention to be devoted to effective preventive action, appealing for $100 million.

Congress responded promptly. A bipartisan group of senators obtained $25 million for prevention efforts (a quarter of the request, the traditional contribution of the United States), allowing the CDC, the Agency for International Development, the Health and Human Services Department and other agencies to improve their ability to act.

In addition, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved legislation directing President Bush to form a senior-level task force to put in place an international strategy to deal with the avian flu and coordinate policy among our government agencies. We urge the Bush administration to form this task force immediately, without waiting for legislation to be passed.

But these are only modest first steps. International health experts believe that Southeast Asia will be an epicenter of influenza for decades. We recommend that this administration work with Congress, public health officials, the pharmaceutical industry, foreign governments and international organizations to create a permanent framework for curtailing the spread of future infectious diseases.

Among the parts of that framework could be these:

Increasing international disease surveillance, response capacity and public education and coordination, especially in Southeast Asia.

Stockpiling enough antiviral doses to cover high-risk populations and essential workers.

Ensuring that, here at home, Health and Human Services and state governments put in place plans that address issues of surveillance, medical care, drug and vaccine distribution, communication, protection of the work force and maintenance of core public functions in case of a pandemic.

Accelerating research into avian flu vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Establishing incentives to encourage nations to report flu outbreaks quickly and fully.

So far, A(H5N1) has not been found in the United States. But in an age when you can board planes in Bangkok or Hong Kong and arrive in Chicago, Indianapolis or New York in hours, we must face the reality that these exotic killer diseases are not isolated health problems half a world away, but direct and immediate threats to security and prosperity here at home.

— Barack Obama, D-Ill., is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Richard Lugar, R-Ind., is its chairman.

http://www.presstelegram.com/cda/article/print/0,1674,204%7E21479%7E2944226,00.html
 

Martin

Deceased
Two babies die in Cambodian flu 'outbreak'

KER MUNTHIT
Associated Press

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia - Two infants have died in Cambodia from influenza, part of an outbreak that has hospitalized more than 1,000 children, a doctor said Thursday.

Deputy Health Minister Heng Tay Kry on Wednesday described the number of influenza cases as "unprecedented."

He said the illness appears to be a form of human flu, not the avian influenza that has killed dozens of people in neighboring countries and has health officials on edge over concerns the bird flu virus could mutate to more easily infect humans.

The victims were boys aged 9 months and 14 months, said Dr. Kdan Yuvatha, chief of the technical department at the National Pediatric Hospital. Both died over the past two weeks from severe lung infections.

"When they arrived at our hospital, their conditions were beyond salvation already," Kdan Yuvatha said.

Megge Miller, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organization in Cambodia, agreed the number of cases was abnormally high, and described the situation as an "outbreak." Samples from some sick children have tested positive for influenza B virus, which is a milder disease compared to bird flu, she said.



http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/12022161.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
I wonder if the flu in Cambodia is the same one that has been killing children in New Zealand?
 

Chapulin

Veteran Member
First I know nothing about this stuff and this is probably a little ahead of when we need this information, but can humans with the flu infect healthy poultry? If travelling workers can infect the home supply, even eggs to grow vaccines aren't going to be easy to find.

Chap
 

RAT

Inactive
It seems a little odd that a 'mild' form of the flu would be killing so many children! I wonder if there's not some 'mixing' of the bird flu virus going on there? Even if it hasn't happened yet this can't be a good thing to have a virulant 'mild' flu circulating in an area where the bird flu is also circulating!!

bird flu + human flu = pandemic flu

:shkr: :shkr: :shkr:
 

Martin

Deceased
Avian Flu
Date: Thursday, June 30 @ 12:56:14 CDT
Topic: For The Record


by Ken Secor

Back in March, I was invited to be a keynote speaker at a heating symposium in Beijing, China. My column the week after was about the experience. What I didn't mention was the incredible conversation I had with a complete stranger while standing and stretching my legs, during the 19-hour flight, in the tail section of the plane.

After changing planes in Chicago, being in the air for many hours, this other guy and I struck up a conversation about where we were from and what the purpose of our visit was. He nonchalantly mentioned he was from around Savannah and this was the third time he'd been sent to China in as many months. I asked what his purpose was and he told me he was a microbiologist working as an expert on infectious diseases.

I incorrectly assumed the CDC (United States Center for Disease Control) was his sponsor and he said no, it was the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). I asked why he was going to Beijing and he said he wasn't; that Beijing was the closest major city he could get to before flying and driving to the border countries of Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam where a strange killer flu was reported - and since the infrastructure of these primitive governments was refusing access directly to Americans (or capable of doing their own medical research), he was going with top Chinese science and virologist/ researchers to those border countries, and would thus be able to assess the threat from that angle.

Just as nonchalantly he suggested if the virus they were investigating made a minor morph from birds to humans, that a pandemic worse than anything ever seen on earth could occur, and that the WHO (World Health Organization) was going ballistic at the death and destruction potential and begging for help from all quarters!

I thought about what I assumed was one of the few Americans to have access to a real accurate information after hearing this guy speak, but saw nothing else in the papers until I read The Wall Street Journal June 10 paper and saw the following byline: "China Reveals More Avian Flu" and the sub-title, "Outbreak of Deadly Virus On Farm Deepens Worries About Spread of Disease."

I now follow this story with more than just a passing interest. By any measure, this is perhaps the most significant medical event since the discovery and spread of AIDS.

The evidence suggests if Avian Flu does make a final morph back to humans that AIDS will look like much ado about nothing, compared to this thing. Fifty people have already been documented to have died from Avian Flu from birds.

Scientists believe millions of people could be killed in months if the strain moves from humans to humans. The article does not say whether it would be a few million deaths, or hundreds of millions. My microbiologist acquaintance left little doubt from data already collected and known; it would be the higher number if the likely-to-happen morph occurs and a cure not found… God forbid.

Ken Secor welcomes your feedback. You can email him at KenSecor@devinemedia.com, or write to him c/o The News Record, P.O. Box 1061, Rahway, NJ 07065.

Published in the June 30, 2005 issue of the Rahway News Record


http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1436789
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
Ya know there are a number of us in the healthcare field, we'll most likely see the start of it...I, myself, will update when I see TSHTF, how's about you other healthcare professionals?....we need to keep others in the loop when the gov't doesn't. It won't take a rocket scientist in our profession to know... :shr:
 

phoenix7of7

Deceased
Fuzzychick;

I for one, am counting on you. And on 2 of my 3 sisters who work at the hospital here. I don't really care what some reporter, or politician, or WHO, or any other such official has to say. Because whatever they will be saying; it will be filtered and spun; and most likely wrong.

The important information, if this thing gets going, will come from the frontline - the health care providers.

Best of luck to you!
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
phoenix7of7 said:
Fuzzychick;

I for one, am counting on you. And on 2 of my 3 sisters who work at the hospital here. I don't really care what some reporter, or politician, or WHO, or any other such official has to say. Because whatever they will be saying; it will be filtered and spun; and most likely wrong.

The important information, if this thing gets going, will come from the frontline - the health care providers.

Best of luck to you!


Thanx, but I'm hoping others here on the board do the same, this won't be a pretty thing....Prepare as best ya can...I'll update...hope others in the know healtcare wise do the same....if I could and I won't that's just the way I am, I head to a place where nobody exists....isolated...Northern Canada where there is nothing springs to mind...but that's just me... :confused: Talk to your sisters as well...you'd probably get a heads up from them, however I will post it as I see it coming.
 

phoenix7of7

Deceased
We talk everytime we get together for family dinners; or like this weekend when we go camping together. They keep me informed of the infectious diseases in the area --- even tho local authorities claim we don't have any such cases.
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
IMHO, you won't get accurate news till the body count and bags start adding up too much to be ignored...that's just my thought here...my great grandparents survived 1918, but there wasn't plane travel, today this could spread through out within a few weeks, ya they're a chokin' at the WHO right about now.... :ld: :sht: :sht:

Edited for the word was changed to wasn't
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
phoenix7of7 said:
We talk everytime we get together for family dinners; or like this weekend when we go camping together. They keep me informed of the infectious diseases in the area --- even tho local authorities claim we don't have any such cases.


Probably not yet..but they will come if this continues to spread the way it has...like 1918 it is striking down the young....almost deja vu...but remember we've got planes... :rolleyes:
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
Morning Star said:
Hey....that's CanadaSue's scenario!


Yup, Canada Sue's scenario TRULY reads true to life...and They're paying attention to it!!!!!!!!!! Damn I truly hope so!!! Hats off to you Sue!!!! :siren:
 

Martin

Deceased
Bird-flu traced to Guatemala, Mexico

TSUKUBA, Ibaraki Pref. (Kyodo) A weak strain of the H5N2-type avian influenza that was detected in chickens at a poultry farm in Ibaraki Prefecture is almost identical to the virus found earlier in chickens in Guatemala and Mexico, a national research institute said Thursday.
The National Institute of Animal Health in Tsukuba said its gene analysis showed that 97 percent of the base sequence of the virus found in chickens at the Arebamento Kanto farm in Ibaraki is identical to the virus found in chickens in Guatemala.

The institute also said 90 percent of the base sequence of the virus in Ibaraki was identical to the one found earlier in Mexico.

Shigeo Yamaguchi, who heads infectious disease research at the institute, said the virus originating in Guatemala may have been carried to Japan, but it may be difficult to identify the specific route and nature of the spread.

The Japan Times: July 1, 2005


http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20050701a5.htm
 

Martin

Deceased
If killer flu strikes, a plan is in place

Risk downgraded, but Ministry taking no chances

Thursday • June 30, 2005

Loh Chee Kong
cheekong@newstoday.com.sg

A STOCK of masks is ready. Isolation rooms are in place.

While scientists quibble over whether or not a human influenza pandemic is imminent, the Ministry of Health (MOH) says it is ready for all eventualities.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) had said last year that millions could die if the bird flu mutated into a strain that is easily transmitted among humans.

Yesterday, it downgraded the risk, saying that scientists found that the virus had not mutated yet.

"We could rule out there was an immediate, imminent pandemic," Mr Hans Troedsson, the WHO representative in Vietnam, told AFP.

But the virus is widely spread and Singapore is taking no chances.

MOH has set up a contingency plan — which took a year to fine-tune — to allow it to respond immediately to any outbreaks.

Broadly speaking, it aims to maintain essential services, limit social and economic disruption, provide treatment to identified cases and reduce the spread of the virus.

The system will have six levels of alert (see box above) — Green Levels 0 and 1, Yellow, Orange, Red and Black.

Currently, Singapore is at a Green Level 1 degree of alert as the possibility of human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus has been raised, although the threat remains low.

Under the framework, the ministry will coordinate with various agencies to implement strategies for each phase.

Specific measures that will be undertaken include providing anti-viral drugs to healthcare workers, stepping up border controls and issuing Home Quarantine Orders.

More drastic steps include closure of schools and suspension of public events.

"We want to assure Singaporeans that the ministry has made comprehensive preparations and will continue to take all professional measures possible," said Professor K Satku, MOH's director of medical services.

Drawing lessons from the Sars outbreak, Professor Satku said that the ministry has stocked up on protective equipment such as masks and set up isolation rooms in medical institutions.

The ministry is also maintaining a stock of anti-viral drugs and strengthening infection control measures in hospitals, workplaces and the community.

It is also looking at tie-ups with companies that produce vaccines to develop a jab against the H5N1 virus and to ensure that Singapore receives its supplies as early as possible, if the need arises.

A pandemic usually spreads in two or more waves, the second within nine months of the initial outbreak.

The duration of each pandemic wave is estimated to be up to six weeks.

However, it is difficult to predict how long each alert phase will last, Prof Satku said.

Singapore has been reducing the risk by keeping a close watch and control over its local poultry population.

This means that the chances of someone contracting the flu through contact with local birds have been cut down.

Of course, the problem could be imported from elsewhere. Singapore is trying to plug all the holes that it

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/58946print.asp
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
Virginia teen dies of unknown illness

N.Va. Teen Dies After Falling Ill On Trip
By Tara Bahrampour
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, July 1, 2005; B06

An 18-year-old who graduated last week from T.C. Williams High School died early yesterday after falling ill during a post-graduation beach trip with classmates.

Kelley Swanson had complained of nausea and weakness Wednesday in Salvo, N.C., where about 40 graduates had rented beach houses and were staying with chaperones. She was taken to a hospital Wednesday night and died a few hours later.

Although the cause of death had not been determined yesterday, a spokeswoman for the Virginia Department of Health said Swanson had symptoms of meningitis. The department issued a statement recommending that people who had close contact with her recently take antibiotics as a precaution.

No other students have been reported ill. Swanson's twin sister, Katie, was also on the trip.

In Alexandria, a close-knit community of teenagers and their families was reeling after hearing of Swanson's death -- the third in her class in two years. Last year, Laura S. Lynam, 17, died in a car accident on her way to a crew event; the year before, Schuyler H. Jones, 16, died after he was beaten in Old Town Alexandria.

"This class has gone through more than anyone should have to in high school," said Mark R. Eaton, an Alexandria School Board member whose daughter was on the trip.

"My daughter said it looked like some kind of flu symptoms," said Eaton, adding that she might have shared a room with Swanson. "Parents are of course concerned, and people are consulting physicians."

Beach week, while not an organized school event, is a T.C. Williams tradition in which some seniors rent beach houses together after graduation. The teenagers left Saturday, the day after the ceremony, for what was to be a week-long trip.

Instead, parents in Alexandria were awakened yesterday by calls to come pick up their children in North Carolina.

Carolyn Beckett, whose daughter Elizabeth Coppelman, 18, has been best friends with the Swanson twins since she was 2, described her daughter and her friends as "numb." "Katie's in shock," she said. "She's in the shock of losing not just her sister but her twin."

Beckett said some teenagers were tested yesterday at a North Carolina hospital for meningitis, strep throat and other illnesses. Jarie Ebert, a spokeswoman for Outer Banks Hospital in Nags Head, confirmed that Swanson had died and that "services were offered in relation to this case."

Beckett said Swanson's mother and brother drove to North Carolina on Wednesday night but did not arrive before she died. "She's a nurse, and when she heard the doctor's discussions driving down there, she knew what it meant," Beckett said of Swanson's mother.

She added that Swanson's mother had said she thought the cause might be "a very, very bad strain of strep throat."

Friends and relatives described Swanson as an avid varsity soccer player who helped students with disabilities play the sport. Many spoke of her and her twin in a single breath.

"They were very active girls," said Steve Barrett, their uncle, adding that they were in the honors society and had planned to attend Virginia Tech.

Photos in the recent school yearbook show two blue-eyed redheads, one with straight hair and one with curls, who participated in many of the same activities, such as the Key Club and the yearbook. They were the last of five siblings to graduate from T.C. Williams.

Beckett recalled Swanson's "raucous sense of humor" and said she was "a last-minuter" while her twin got things done ahead of time.

"Katie and Kelley, you never needed to ask; they were always ready to help and be cheerful," she said. "In this community, you will not find a family that has been more quietly generous."

Whitney Post, a graduate who did not go on the trip, said her class had become unusually close because of its losses.

"It really just connects you and just brings you together," she said. "We all share the same grief."

That doesn't make it any easier. "This is getting really rough," Post said.


Kim: I'm not saying there's a connection, but definitely something to keep an eye on, IMHO.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/30/AR2005063001890_pf.html

Migratory Shearwater Birds dying

Shearwater die-off puzzling
299 seabirds found on Volusia's shores

By VIRGINIA SMITH
Staff Writer

Last update: July 01, 2005

PONCE INLET -- It was strange enough when two greater shearwaters -- open-sea birds rarely seen near land -- arrived weak and dying at the Marine Science Center early last week. There were no gale force winds to blow them ashore, and no known pollutants lurking in the water.

By Thursday an astonishing 299 seabirds, emaciated and dead or dying, had been picked up on Volusia County beaches and taken to the center's Mary Keller Seabird Rehabilitation Sanctuary.

All but a handful were greater shearwaters, a species that migrates from the southernmost Atlantic to Greenland in a lengthy figure eight, touching ground only to breed.

"The sky opened up and it rained shearwaters," said Chris Wise, the center's head rehabilitator -- and she'd never seen anything like it in her 15 years working with birds. Most of those found alive died within minutes or hours of arriving.

As it turned out, hundreds more shearwaters had been washing up for weeks in Georgia, the Carolinas and as far north as Maryland. Witnesses reported seeing the birds stumbling and uncoordinated before they died, evidence of poisoning -- perhaps by a red tide-like organism -- or a viral infection

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/Headlines/03NewsHEAD08070105.htm
 
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