Avian flu updated

Sharon

Inactive
Correct me if I'm wrong, please. From what I've read from various articles, this flu has evolved over the years. If this is the case, and we don't see a pandemic this year, and, they don't eradicate this virus, then we may still see a pandemic in the years to come.

I guess what I'm getting at, is this is one instance that if the SHTF does not occur this flu season, it doesn't mean we can write it off as just one more scare.

Or am I looking at this wrong? If I'm not, and it doesn't occur this year, perhaps that just gives us longer to prepare?

Anyone?
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
I think you're right Sharon. Apparently the 1918 flu had the same sort of run-up:
It popped up in isolated spots for a few years before it really hit. We may have another year or so, but the news is starting to come out now, which tells me most people think it will hit this year, IMHO.
 

Martin

Deceased
Monday, June 20, 2005
Dumaguing: Bird flu a real health threat
By Dr. Victor Dumaguing

IT IS GETTING real and imminent! World Health Organization (WHO) scientists and health experts are calling for stepped-up surveillance of avian influenza in Southeast Asia and that includes the Philippines, after reports surfacing from northern Vietnam suggest that the deadly virus may be evolving into something more easily transmitted to humans.

At this juncture, we would like to remind our readers that while meningococcemia is a bacterial infection, bird flu is a viral infection like the equally-dreaded Sars.




While stressing that there is no proof as yet of human-to-human transmission of the so-called H5N1 strain of the virus, scientists who met five weeks ago in Manila concluded there are numerous signs that the virus is undergoing an evolutionary change. "If action is delayed until there is unmistakable evidence that the virus has become sufficiently transmissible among people to allow a pandemic to develop, then it most likely be too late to implement effective focal, national or regional response," - a warning statement from the Manila WHO summit.

A WHO team that assessed the Vietnam bird flu cases last April was alarmed that it called for an urgent review of the situation. A report was synthesized from the two-day Manila summit and was circularized to many health agencies.

The report strongly recommends "immediate steps" to improve monitoring and urged nations "to move ahead as quickly as possible" on pandemic preparedness plans. It urged the WHO to make experimental vaccines for bird flu available to affected Asian countries and said antiviral drugs should be stockpiled. At the moment, the Roche drug Tamiflu is being considered but the present supply may not be enough, if indeed a pandemic may occur.

Bird flu has infected at least 92 humans since December 2003, killing 52 of them. It is the high probability that the lethal virus be readily passed among humans that worry health experts. In Northern Vietnam, reports suggest that the virus is behaving differently than it has in the south or in other parts of Southeast Asia. This year, there have been eight clusters of cases in the north and only two in South Vietnam. People of all ages have come down with bird flu in the north while no one over the age of 40 was stricken in the south. "These changes" warm WHO experts, "were all consistent with avian virus possibly adapting to a human host." The Spanish flu of 1918, which killed at least 20 million people, was fatal to just 2.7% of those it infected. This is the paradox about a milder form of bird flu being more dangerous because many people would catch it. In Northern Vietnam, the death rate among 47 patients who contracted the bird flu was 34% while the death rate in the south was 63 percent among 24 cases.

Microbiologists have also discovered that the surface proteins on viruses found in Northern Vietnam are slightly different from the ones in the south. One strain isolated this year is "anti-genetically distinct" from the strain being used as a basis for making an experimental vaccine. "The greater age spread, the genetic divergence from north to south and the molecular changes are all things that people have to been concerned about" said Dr. George Rutherford, director of the Institute for Global Health. However, Rutherford was quick to emphasize that "no scientists can be sure whether what is being observed is the birth of a pandemic of simply the normal behavior of avian flu strain that has never been observed so closely.

That notwithstanding, Dr. Larry Drew, director of the Virology Laboratory of the University of California in San Francisco, said the latest WHO findings underscore the need for pandemic planning. This report may help to convince the necessary people that the threat is imminent," he said. "Vaccine development has to accelerate... the most achievable goal is to rapidly build a worldwide stockpile of antiviral drug."

As I've written in past issues, there is no recorded case of bird flu yet in the Philippines but the absence of case does not translate to a unique resistance of the Filipinos to the virus. There may be a vast sea that separates the Philippines from affected countries like Vietnam and Thailand, but then remember that the virus can be carried by migratory birds seeking warmer climes in our lands during the winter. On top of that, let us not forget that air travel has made the world become smaller. Now, do you get the whole picture?



http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/bag/2005/06/20/oped/dr..victor.dumaguing.html
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
In China 25 km from Kazakhstan border severe bird flu outburst registered


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.inform.kz/txt/showarticle.php?lang=eng&id=128025



20.06 / 13:32 | 36 In China 25 km from Kazakhstan border severe bird flu outburst registered
ASTANA. June 20. KAZINFORM /Nazym Shakhanova/ – In the Chinese People’s Republic 25 km from the border with East Kazakhstan is registered large outbreak of bird flu among birds. According to WHO, 1042 ducks were detected with symptoms of bird flu, and 406 of them died. It has been said by deputy Healthcare Minister, chief state sanitary inspector of Kazakhstan Anatoliy Belonog.

According to the Chinese veterinary services, at one of the private farms of Chuguchak (Tacheng) in SUAR province have been destroyed 13 000 birds, as well as other measures taken including isolation and disinfection. Besides, urgent poultry immunization was carried out at all neighboring fowl-farms.

In the Chinese experts’ view, bird flu virus uprise at the west of China is connected with its carry-over by migrating birds from the South Asia via Tibet and the Himalaya.

To date there are registered 54 death cases of bird flu disease among the population of Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.

Thus, necessary measures are being taken by the Ministry not to bring the infection into the territory of Kazakhstan.

In all regions sanitary-quarantine control is stiffened at all points of crossing the state border, international airports with traffic to South Eastern Asia.
 

O2BNOK

Veteran Member
Influenza A H5N1 Replication Sites in Humans


I think this is important. The full article can be found here:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no07/04-1313.htm

and is long and full of virology terminology. The really important part is in the discussion section which I will copy here.

xoxo


Discussion
Detailed autopsy data on patients with H5N1 disease are limited, and our data provide an insight into the pathogenesis of H5N1 virus in humans. We provide evidence that H5N1 viral replication is not confined to the respiratory tract but may also occur in the gastrointestinal tract. However, a fecal sample was not available for detection of virus. Although viral RNA was detected in the spleen, no evidence of viral replication was seen in this organ. The patient was treated with an antiviral agent for 2 days before death, which could have lowered the level of viral replication in the examined tissues. However, we still found viral mRNA in lungs and intestines, indicating that the viral replication was still ongoing. Viral replication in lungs and intestines was greater than in other sites. Our data agree with previous reports of human cases and cases in experimentally infected macaques, which also suggest that H5N1 influenza virus replication takes place predominantly in the lungs (10,11,21). We also show that type II pneumocytes, not columnar tracheal epithelial cells, are the major site of H5N1 viral replication in humans. Type II pneumocytes are surfactant-producing, alveolar epithelial cells and progenitor cells of both type I and type II cells. This cell type has been shown to contain sialic acid in newborn human lung (22). Whether the availability of the receptor alone determined the site of H5N1 infection needs further investigation.

Infection of the gastrointestinal tract by avian influenza virus, including H5N1, is common in avian species (23,24). However, involvement of the gastrointestinal tract in H1 and H3 influenza infection is rare in humans (25). A patient with H5N1 influenza virus infection was reported to have diarrhea as the initial symptom, which raises the question of whether the gastrointestinal tract may is another site of viral replication and shedding, similar to its function in avian species (26). In another recent report of a patient with a fatal H5N1 infection and severe diarrhea and encephalitis in Vietnam, the virus was found in a rectal swab (27). Our data confirm that H5N1 influenza virus replication can occur in the gastrointestinal tract even in the absence of diarrhea. However, we do not know the extent of viral shedding in stool in this patient. The absence of pathologic changes in the intestine, despite the viral replication, is intriguing.

The absence of viral antigen in the trachea indicated that the upper airway is probably not an active site of the viral replication. This finding is in marked contrast to the circumstances with human influenza, in which the upper respiratory tract and the tracheal and bronchial epithelium are primarily targeted (19). The predilection of H5N1 influenza virus for the lower airways may explain why detecting virus in upper airway specimens for diagnosis of H5N1 infection in humans is difficult (1). This finding also implies that specimens from the lower respiratory tract, such as sputum or bronchoalveolar lavage, would have a higher sensitivity for viral detection than an upper respiratory specimen, such as nasopharyngeal aspirates or throat swab specimens. Our data showing the absence of viral antigen in columnar epithelial cells contrast with a recently published report that H5N1 viral replication took place selectively in ciliated bronchial epithelial cells in an in vitro culture model (28). Whether this result was due to properties of specific viral strains or a difference attributable to the in vitro model needs further clarification.

In contrast to previous reports (10,11), we did not find prominent hemophagocytosis in any of the organs. The presence of hemophagocytosis in these reports supports the cytokine dysregulation model of pathogenesis. Whether the young age of our patient or prior treatment with immunosuppressive corticosteroids affected this manifestation in this patient is unclear.

TNF-α mRNA was detectable in the lungs but not in other tissues. This finding is in agreement with previous observations that H5N1 viruses isolated from human disease hyperinduce production of cytokines, most prominently TNF-α, in cultured human macrophages in vitro (20,29). The simultaneous presence of viral mRNA and cytokine mRNA in the same organ suggests a direct induction of cytokine in productively infected cells. In accordance with this finding, we also found that the viral isolate from this patient induced a high level of TNF-α production from primary human macrophages, which is comparable to the previously described strains (M. Peiris, unpub. data). However, we could not rule out the possibility that the superimposed fungal infection might have played a role in the induction of TNF-α in this patient. The hemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus also appears to hyperinduce production of cytokines and chemokines in a mouse model of disease (30).

In conclusion, we have documented that H5N1 disease in humans is one in which viral replication is restricted to the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. The multiorgan dysfunction observed in human H5N1 disease, despite the apparent confinement of infection to the lungs, has remained an enigma. The hypothesis that cytokine dysregulation may contribute to the pathogenesis of severe H5N1 disease (20) remains a possibility. An understanding of the pathogenesis of human H5N1 disease is important in preparing for a pandemic.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Sharon- you are completely correct. However, it's *possible* (although unfortunately not real likely) that it will also die back down.... I don't know if anyone knows if this scenario has played out before when communications were poorer and "unexplained" deaths in undeveloped countries were never attributed to influenza.

However, the experts studying this are pretty much in agreement that this is getting VERY close to being "the big one". Possibly the best we can hope for is that it changes to be less virulent even while it's mutating to be much easier to transmit person-to-person.

We do have experts actually using terms like "extinction level event", when looking at the worst *possible* case scenario in this (!!) Some are unofficially estimating fatalities (we assume they are talking about those actually hospitalized) as high as ONE in TWO.

I have a hard time believing it will get that bad. However, in our complex, extremely interlinked society, even 10% of the population getting really sick (you don't get over this in a week, and most people remember the weeks and months full recovery from influenza can take) may trigger the entire Infomagic Charlotte's Web cascade.

A responsible government will HAVE TO institute quarantines... and those will essentially bring all commerce to a halt. If they don't (and I have trouble believing they'll risk the economic consequences- they'll probably prefer to take the chance and "hope" it doesn't get here), people will have to protect themselves. This means quarantining yourselves- and all the preps that implies.

Once it hits the US shores, we won't have much time to prepare. And the JIT delivery systems will be overwhelmed on all the basics for home nursing- gloves, masks, bleach, OTC meds, etc - in a matter of days.

Summerthyme
 

Martin

Deceased
UN asks China for details about human drug use on poultry


Last Updated 20/06/2005, 22:53:05

The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation is seeking clarification from China over a report it is using a human anti-flu drug on poultry.

The Washington Post reported that Chinese farmers, with government encouragement, have widely used the drug amantadine to combat bird flu in poultry since the 1990s.

Experts fear, if the story is accurate, the farmers are rendering the human vaccine useless.

Amantadine is one of only a handful of medications for treating human influenza and one of the most common.

The World Health Organisation's China representative, Doctor Henk Bekedam, says the most effective method of eradicating the flu from poultry is through culling infected birds

The FAO's Beijing office said it was still awaiting information from China's Ministry of Agriculture about how the drug was administered and in what quantities.


http://www.abc.net.au/ra/news/stories/s1396473.htm
 

Martin

Deceased
20.06 / 13:32 | 173 In China 25 km from Kazakhstan border severe bird flu outburst registered

ASTANA. June 20. KAZINFORM /Nazym Shakhanova/ – In the Chinese People’s Republic 25 km from the border with East Kazakhstan is registered large outbreak of bird flu among birds. According to WHO, 1042 ducks were detected with symptoms of bird flu, and 406 of them died. It has been said by deputy Healthcare Minister, chief state sanitary inspector of Kazakhstan Anatoliy Belonog.

According to the Chinese veterinary services, at one of the private farms of Chuguchak (Tacheng) in SUAR province have been destroyed 13 000 birds, as well as other measures taken including isolation and disinfection. Besides, urgent poultry immunization was carried out at all neighboring fowl-farms.

In the Chinese experts’ view, bird flu virus uprise at the west of China is connected with its carry-over by migrating birds from the South Asia via Tibet and the Himalaya.

To date there are registered 54 death cases of bird flu disease among the population of Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.

Thus, necessary measures are being taken by the Ministry not to bring the infection into the territory of Kazakhstan.

In all regions sanitary-quarantine control is stiffened at all points of crossing the state border, international airports with traffic to South Eastern Asia


http://www.inform.kz/txt/showarticle.php?lang=eng&id=128025
 
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