Avian flu update Page 6

[Martin]

Page 5 at
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=158666&highlight=avian




Massive flu outbreak could happen at any moment, WHO warns

Weekend • July 23, 2005

The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions of people, the World Health Organization warned, urging countries to be prepared.

"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokeswoman Margaret Chan told reporters on Friday.

"I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on the lookout for any time, any day," she added.

Deadly avian flu, which has killed 55 people in Asia since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-human transmission, Chan said.

Avian flu, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from nature" -- the first since 1968, according to the WHO expert, who was Hong Kong's director of health from 1994 to 2003.

"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult case to answer if indeed it happens," she said.

"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic, you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and economic disruption."

Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic could divert resources from other health emergencies like the fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve the tracking of life-threatening diseases. — AFP


http://www.todayonline.com/articles/62928print.asp

 

[Martin]

Avian flu reported in Siberian poultry deaths

Jul 22, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – A news report from Russia today said that an H5 strain of avian influenza has killed hundreds of poultry in Siberia, though a Russian report to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) said the disease was still unidentified.

The outbreak was reported in the Novosibirsk region of southwestern Siberia. If it turns out to be H5N1 avian flu, it will mark the virus's first known extension into Russia and Central Asia. The virus has plagued much of Southeast and East Asia since late 2003 and infected more than 100 people, killing at least 55.

The outbreak was described as an H5 avian flu in a report from the Russian news service Newsru.com, which quoted Alexander Shestopalov, head of the zoonoses laboratory at the State Scientific Center for Virology and Biotchechnology ("Vector"). (The report was translated and published by ProMED Mail, a service of the International Society for Infectious Diseases.)

"Further serotyping of the virus is expected today Fri, 22 Jul 2005," Shestopalov was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, the OIE published an alert today from another Russian official saying that more than 350 poultry in Siberia have died of a disease that could be avian influenza.

Dr. Evgueny A. Nepoklonov, head of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and Food's main veterinary department, reported that the outbreak has killed geese, ducks, turkeys, and chickens in five villages in the Novosibirsk region.

"Some clinical signs allow suspecting that the outbreak is caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)," the report says. "However, some details of the outbreak are not typical for HPAI (no evident species specificity, and the pattern of spreading within a settlement)." He said laboratory test results were expected tomorrow.

According to the Newsru.com report, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry said today that more than 500 birds died in the outbreak, including 300 in one district and 240 in another. Officials said no human cases have been found.

Because of the outbreak, the chief sanitary inspector for Moscow said today that authorities would stop food shipments from the Novosibirsk region to other parts of Russia, according to a MosNews.com report today.

Nepoklonov's report to the OIE said the poultry began showing signs of illness Jul 15 and began dying Jul 18. The birds were in "non-commercial premises of open type," he said.

Yesterday, other Russian officials asserted and denied that an H5 virus had been identified in the outbreak, according to reports from MosNews.com and Reuters.

MosNews.com quoted Viktor Beltsov, a spokesman for Russia's Emergencies Ministry, as saying that an investigation "showed the presence of the AH5-type bird flu virus."

But Reuters reported that Sergei Dankvert, the country's chief animal and plant safety officer, would not confirm that. "The reason behind the accident could be bad water, feed poisoning, Newcastle disease or bird flu," he said.

The chief veterinary officer for the Novosibirsk region, Muhamed Amirokov, said today that samples from dead birds were being tested by several laboratories and that results were expected in 3 to 4 days, according to a Reuters report. "As of today, we have no proof that we have bird flu," he said.

See also:

Russian report published by OIE
http://www.oie.int/Messages/050722RUS.htm

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/july2205russia.html

 

[libtoken]

Indonesia, China to cooperate in eradicating bird flu
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-07-23 10:29


Indonesia and China plan to forge cooperation in eradication of avian influenza (AI) which has attacked poultry in both countries, local media on Saturday quoted official sources as saying.

Tri Satya Putri Naipospos, director of animal health at the Agriculture Ministry's directorate general of animal husbandry, said in Jakarta on Friday that the cooperation between the two countries will take the form of exchange of experts and in AI vaccine production.

"We're still studying the cooperation," Tri Satya said while briefing reporters on the result of her recent visit to China.

She also said that the two countries needed to forge formal cooperation on the import of AI vaccines product from China.

In the meantime, the official said that the planned culling of AI-infected pigs in Tangerang, Banten, would not be effective in eradicating the AI virus.

"The key to eradicate bird flu lies in poultry because these animals are the source of the spreading of the virus" she said.

Therefore, she said that her office would intensify surveillance of all kinds of fowls, including ducks, in Tangerang.

The Agriculture Ministry announced that from August 2003 to July 1, 2005, AI had spread to 21 provinces and 132 districts or cities and already caused the death of 9.53 million chickens.

Meanwhile, Director General of Animal Husbandry at the Agriculture Ministry Mathur Riyadi disclosed on Thursday (July 21) that South Sulawesi, Jambi, East Kalimantan and North Sumatra had also been affected by AI.

Earlier, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyanto said the government would destroy AI-infected poultry to prevent the disease from spreading to other areas in the country.

 

[Martin]

Disease Replaces Political Conflict as Asia's Greatest Security Threat

By Benjamin Sand

An Asia expert says disease and natural disasters may pose a greater security threat to the region than conventional political conflicts.





July 23, 2005 (AXcess News) Hong Kong - An Asia expert says disease and natural disasters may pose a greater security threat to the region than conventional political conflicts.

The Asia Pacific Security Outlook is an annual survey of all security concerns facing Asia, from North Korea's nuclear weapons programs to Chinese relations with the United States and Taiwan.

Speaking in Hong Kong Friday, the report's editor, Richard Morrison, said the primary regional threat for the second half of the year is non-military and non-traditional.

Mr. Morrison, president of the Honolulu-based East-West Center, says disease and natural disasters threaten the entire Asia Pacific region, with potentially catastrophic results.

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, started in Southern China in late 2002 and eventually spread around world, killing 774 people before it was brought under control. The chief disease threat these days is Avian Flu.

Mr. Morrison says bird flu is already established in bird populations across Southeast Asia, and concerns are mounting that it could become easily transmissible between humans, sparking a deadly pandemic. "If there is a jump, there's no immunity to this kind of virus," he noted. "It's totally unknown what the losses could be - it could be one million, 10 million, it could be 100 million."

About 60 people have already died of bird flu in scattered cases in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia since early 2004. Mr. Morrison says a full-scale outbreak would close borders and stop international trade.

What is needed, he says, is a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to protecting public health. He says Southeast Asia has to start sharing information and pooling resources to prevent an epidemic - something the region's states have not done willingly in the past. Limited efforts are underway, he says, but it is still too little considering the risks involved.

Meanwhile, he says tensions surrounding other, more familiar flashpoints may be easing.

North Korea's decision to rejoin six-party talks is raising hopes that the crisis over its nuclear weapons program may be solved.

He also says Chinese relations with Taiwan have stabilized after a rough patch earlier this year. "My impression is the major governments are working quite closely together now with a degree of cooperation we haven't seen in a while," he added.

But Mr. Morrison says the rise of violence in Southern Thailand and the continued presence of militant Islamic groups in Indonesia are still cause for concern in the months ahead.

Source: Voice of America


http://www.axcessnews.com/health_072305a.shtml

 

[Martin]

Authorities to destroy pigs near home of three Indonesian bird flu victims

JAKARTA (AP): Health authorities will kill pigs near the home of three family members who died from bird flu - Indonesia's first fatalities from the deadly disease racing through Asia.

About 100 pigs were to be killed at two farms in Tangerang on the outskirts of the capital, Jakarta, Ministry of Agriculture official Turni Rusli said on Saturday.

The farms are about 15 kilometers (nine miles) from the home of a 38-year-old finance ministry worker and his two young daughters, who died earlier this month from the H5N1 strain of bird flu.

The source of infection has not been confirmed, butauthorities say the farms are suspected because chickens and pigs there tested positive for the disease earlier this year. The chickens have already been killed.

The virus has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, killing tens of millions of birds - and at least 57 people, most of them in Vietnam and Thailand.

In May, an Indonesian scientist also found H5N1 in pigs, which are genetically similar to people and often carry the human influenza virus.

Experts worry that pigs infected with both bird flu and its human equivalent could act as a "mixing bowl," resulting in a more dangerous, mutant virus that might spread to people more easily - and then from person to person.

Indonesia, criticized for only killing sick poultry after it first detected the disease two years ago, vowed this week to cull all birds and pigs within three kilometers (two miles) of infected farms.

Farmers would be compensated, said Tri Satya Naipospos, director of animal health at the Agriculture Ministry, though it was not yet clear if they would be given cows or cash.

Naipospos said the ministry was also distributing bird flu vaccines. So far 126 million doses have been handed out, with another 52 million planned, she said. (**)


http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1460380

 

[Martin]

Malaysia boosts bird flu watch after outbreaks in Thailand, Indonesia

Weekend • July 23, 2005

Malaysia said it had increased bird flu surveillance measures in response to new eruptions of the deadly avian influenza virus in neighbouring Thailand and Indonesia.

"Developments in neighbouring Thailand and Indonesia have prompted us to beef up patrols at border points and enforcement in terms of smuggling," Agriculture Minister Muhyiddin Yassin told reporters.

"We are also stepping up on our preparations in the event that a bird flu outbreak happens again," he said.

However, he added that "I don't think we have anything to worry about -- so far we are still free (from the disease)."

Indonesia this month announced its first human deaths from the virus, and admitted it should have culled more infected poultry to stem the disease. And in Thailand, the virus was found again in chickens and fighting cocks.

Muhyiddin appealed to countries that have stopped importing poultry products from Malaysia to resume their purchases, saying that the country's poultry meat was safe.

"We are looking for ways to convince those countries that we are truly bird-flu free," he said.

"We have announced that we are free from the disease but they still do not want to resume imports. This is a loss for us. The question of them being fearful or worried that our protocol does not comply with international protocol should not arise," he said.

The minister said the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) had recognized Malaysia's methods in tackling the bird flu outbreak as transparent.

Malaysia's first case of the H5N1 strain of bird flu was detected in a village in northeast Kelantan state in August. There has been no known transmission of the virus to humans in Malaysia.

Malaysia declared itself free from bird flu early this year after health and veterinary officials struggled to control the deadly disease and placed the state under quarantine.

Officials say the disease was first brought into Malaysia by fighting cocks that had been exposed to the virus in Thailand, and that further outbreaks were caused by the continued smuggling of chicken meat. — AFP


http://www.todayonline.com/articles/62952print.asp

 

[Kim99]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...na24.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/07/24/ixworld.html

China withholds vital information for tackling deadly bird flu virus
By Peter Goff in Beijing
(Filed: 24/07/2005)

The Chinese government has failed to provide global health agencies with vital information on recent bird flu outbreaks - caused by a lethal mutating virus that experts say could rapidly spread around the world and potentially kill tens of millions of people.



Three outbreaks of avian flu have affected western China in recent months but the World Health Organisation (WHO) and other international agencies have received neither the information nor virus samples from infected birds that they requested from Beijing.

The UN body needs genetic sequencing information to track the development of the virus and ward off a potential pandemic.

"It is a matter of urgency," said Roy Wadia, the WHO's spokesman in Beijing. "We stress that this virus is highly unpredictable and versatile and can change any time. It is highly dangerous.

"As far as I know, the ministry of agriculture has not sent any samples to any international reference labs or any WHO collaborating centres."

On the advice of the WHO, 25 governments around the world have started stockpiling a vaccine, Tamiflu, in readiness for a potential outbreak of bird flu in humans.

Last week the Government announced that it would buy two million doses to protect key medical and emergency staff against a possible pandemic.

Although a team of international experts was allowed to visit the scene of an outbreak in western Qinghai province last month, the Beijing government has not responded to a request made on June 17 by agencies led by the WHO to visit Xinjiang, near the Kazakhstan border, where there were further reported infections in domestic geese.

The fact that migratory birds, previously immune to the H5N1 bird flu virus, died in the recent outbreak is a very ominous sign, experts say, indicating that the virus has mutated.

It also suggests that infection will spread more rapidly around the world because the birds can fly hundreds of miles a day. Over the past two years the virus has devastated poultry flocks in Asia and killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths this week - a government official and his two young daughters living in a suburb of the capital, Jakarta.

All the victims have been infected after contact with birds. The fear is that the virus will mutate into a highly contagious form that could be passed from human to human.

Officials at China's health and agriculture ministries refused to comment on the apparent lack of co-operation with international agencies.

Independent researchers are dismayed by Beijing's attitude, particularly in view of its initial cover-up of the Sars crisis more than two years ago.

The severe respiratory virus killed 800 people around the world, affecting 8,000 more and causing widespread economic chaos.

It emerged in November 2002 and is believed to have originated in China's southern Guangdong province before being spread around the world by air travellers.

"It might be another clumsy attempt at a cover-up. It might just be plain, everyday incompetence. Either way you'd think they would know better by now," one international scientist said.

He said that suspicions about Beijing's approach were heightened when independent scientists researching the avian flu outbreaks had their work thwarted by government officials. Guan Yi, a scientist from Hong Kong University who led the international research on the Sars virus, said last week that the authorities had tried to stop his team's work on bird flu after he published an article in the journal Nature, warning of the global threat posed by the virus and linking it to other cases in China.

The Chinese government's chief veterinary official publicly condemned his research, saying it had been conducted without permission and "lacked credibility". The next day, officials visited Dr Guan's laboratory in Guangdong province and told him to stop his research and hand over samples, citing a breach of safety regulations.

Further disquiet has been expressed by international researchers about China's use of drugs designed to combat avian flu. Although China first reported a flu outbreak in February 2004, it emerged recently that its farmers had been trying to suppress a serious outbreak for more than eight years by feeding poultry with an antiviral drug meant for humans, in breach of international livestock guidelines.

As one of two main drugs used for treating human influenza, Amantadine should have had a key role in fighting any future pandemic.

Instead, the H5N1 strain of bird flu has become resistant to the drug because it was systematically fed to poultry.

The Chinese government denies reports that it encouraged its farmers to use the drug.

 

[Kim99]

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,1535044,00.html

Bird flu drug rationed for victims only

Jo Revill, health editor
Sunday July 24, 2005

The Observer


The anti-viral drug being stockpiled to combat bird flu will not be used to prevent the disease spreading. Ministers have decided it will be given only to people who are already infected and whose health is in serious danger.
The move has surprised experts working on plans to combat the anticipated pandemic of the disease. They had expected it would be given out in the early stages of any outbreak to prevent the disease from spreading.

But ministers decided against this move because they fear the nation's entire stocks of Tamiflu, or oseltamivir, would be used up within days if given as soon as people were exposed to the virus. The drug, made by Roche, is in short supply throughout the world.

As a result, key workers such as NHS staff and police officers - who were originally expected to receive the drug automatically - are unlikely to get it, raising the question of how emergency services will be kept running if staff succumb to the infection.

At a conference in London last week, Dr Jane Leese the senior government medical officer in charge of pandemic plans, said they were working on the basis that the drug could not be given prophylactically - in other words as a preventative measure.

She said: 'Although it can be taken over time to prevent you getting flu, that would consume a huge amount of the drug, for a very inefficient use for the savings, so this is a strategy for treating ill patients.'

This decision was backed by a Department of Health spokesman. 'Under our current plans, we would be unlikely to use the drug for post-exposure prophylaxis for healthcare workers or for close family members of cases. As the drug takes seven to 10 days to develop an immune response, we don't believe it would be the most effective use of the stockpile.'

Tamiflu stops infection spreading between cells by inhibiting the actions of the enzyme neuraminidase. The drug is available in Britain as a medication for the elderly because it works on different strains of flu. Trials have suggested it will work against an avian flu strain as a treatment and also as a preventive to stop people from becoming infected in the first place.

The government's decision to ignore this latter use has surprised health professionals. Professor John Oxford, head of virology at Barts and the London Hospital, said : 'If you gave this to everyone as soon as the virus arrived on our shores it would obviously go very quickly, but if you give it to people once they have been exposed, that would be a sensible halfway house measure. Personally, that's what I would want for myself, knowing that you get 90 per cent protection from the virus if you use it prophylactically.'

Although Britain will eventually have 12 million doses of the drug, it currently has only 100,000 doses stockpiled because the manufacturers, Roche, cannot increase their capacity any more quickly to make enough to satisfy global demand. As there are three million key workers in Britain, it would be impossible to give the drug as a preventive measure to all.

It has also emerged that the government will not automatically start to ban flights from Asia once the disease becomes a fully human form of flu.

Studies show that banning international travel would not prevent it from entering the UK as there are so many potential points of entry and it would only have the effect of delaying the disease.

The UK is working on the basis that 25 per cent of its population would be infected, and that the pandemic would last three months. Although flu usually affects the very old and the very young worst, the cases in south east Asia have been predominantly in young and middle-aged people.

The government has given a conservative estimate that there would be 53,000 deaths in Britain from a pandemic, but the number could be as high as 300,000 if just 2 per cent of those infected died - the mortality rate seen in the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918, the last major pandemic.

 

[libtoken]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4711741.stm

China mystery illness kills nine

Health officials in western China are urgently investigating an unidentified illness which has killed nine farmers and put 11 more in hospital.
The farmers were taken ill with symptoms including high fever and vomiting during June and July.

All the victims, who came from Sichuan province, had recently slaughtered pigs or sheep, local media said.

The researchers are hoping to establish quickly whether the illness is bird flu, which has been found in pigs.

The reports came a day after Indonesia announced the slaughter of 100 pigs near the homes of the first three people in the country to die of bird flu.

Experts have expressed fears that pigs, which can also carry human influenza, could accelerate mutation of the virus into a form which can be transmitted between people.

However, an unnamed official told the Washington Post newspaper that bird flu had been ruled out as a cause of death. No official announcement has yet been made.

Chinese media said the farmers suffered flu-like symptoms during the early stages of the disease but later developed bleeding under the skin and went into shock.

Only one patient has so far recovered, while six of the 10 still in hospital are in a critical condition.

None are thought to have had contact with each other.

The outbreak led Hong Kong health officials to issue a warning to hospitals to look out for similar symptoms.

Correspondents say the territory has been wary of diseases spreading from mainland China since the outbreak of the acute respiratory disease Sars, which killed nearly 300 people there in 2003.

 

[Kim99]

Chinese media said the farmers suffered flu-like symptoms during the early stages of the disease but later developed bleeding under the skin and went into shock.

I've read that many people who came down with the 1918 flu actually had symptoms like this. That's why it was so hard to diagnose. Also, there's been speculation that possibly bird flu has combined with ebola in parts of China( see my post on avian flu update Page 5).

 

[Kim99]

Here's Dr. Niman's commentary on the above farmer story:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240501/H5N1_Sichuan_Spread.html

Commentary
.
Fatalities in Sichuan Linked to H5N1 Bird Flu Migration?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 24, 2005

The Chinese news Web site Sina.com reported Saturday the people infected had symptoms like fever, lack of energy, vomiting, bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and shock.....

Animal viruses are also being scrutinized because of bird flu fears.

The above comments are from an AP story on the mysterious deaths of farmers in several villages near Ziyang in Sichuan province southeast of Chengdu. The wire report describes 20 patients with symptoms. Nine have died and 6 more are in critical condition. Only one patient ahs been discharged. The patients had been admitted between June 24 and July 21, so the delay in a diagnosis is cause for concern. Earlier reports also describe patients as being dizzy which lead to coma in some cases. These descriptions sound similar to a t least one death in Thailand after slaughtering a wild boar in May. There was no diagnosis in that cluster of cases either.

The proximity of both sets of cases to H5N1 outbreaks is cause for heightened concern. The 1918 pandemic had many mis-diagnosed cases, including those with neurological complications. H5N1 has been shown to be neurotropic in the lab, and variants with the PB2 polymorphism E627K have been isolated from mouse brains from isolates in Hong Kong as well as duck meat imported to Japan from Shandiong.

The E627K polymorphism is found in all human influenza A isolates, but is rarely detected in avian influenza. However, all H5N1 isolates from Qinghai Lake had E627K, signally possible neurological complications in humans infected with H5N1 with this polymorphisms. The polymorphism has been found in H5N1 isolates infected in 1997 in Hong Kong as well as 2004 in Vietnam and Thailand. Most of the isolates from tigers at the Sri Racha tiger zoo also had the change and the tigers had neurological symptoms before they died. Many H5N1 isolates from swine also have the E627K polymorphism.

Ziyang is just southeast of Chengdu which is about 400 miles southeast of Qinghai Lake. Some boxun reports have indicated bird flu is widespread in Qinghai province which is adjacent to Sichuan Province. Hong Kong radio reports indicate villagers in Sichuan say the deaths are being under-reprted. Boxun reports have also indicated China has isolated 10 distinct H5N1 variants and most can infect humans.

The sequence of H5N1 from Qingahi has been released and analysis indicates that several of the H5N1 polymorphisms that had previously been found only in isolates from Vietnam and Thailand are also in the isolates from Qinghai. Qinghai isolates have also acquired other polymorphisms normally found in mammalian isolates, such as the E627K polymorphism described above. The Qingahi isolates also has polymorhisms commonly found in migratory birds including polymorphisms linked to European isolates. Similar European polymorphisms have been found in isolates form Primorie and Chany Lake reserves in Russia, where over 500 bird have died recently.

As birds at Qingahi Lake and nature reserves in Russia begin to migrate to the south, west, and east, there is concern that such a migration might lead to a catastrophic spread of H5N1.

Human deaths in the adjacent province of Sichuan may indicate that such spread has already begun.

 

[Kim99]

A couple of commentaries from effect measure:

http://www.effectmeasure.blogspot.com/

Sunday, July 24, 2005
"Nevermind what we said": the UK's best laid plans go astray

First we heard plans about what governments were going to do in the event of a flu pandemic. Now that we are looking the pandemic in the eye, we are getting the Truth: lots of those things aren't really going to happen. Consider the plans to give essential workers in the UK the antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu). There are about 3 million key workers like health care workers, police and fire but currently only about 100,000 courses of the drug. So the alleged 12 million dose stockpile announced earlier was just "on order" and the manufacturer, Roche Pharmaceuticals, is overwhelmed with global demand. Thus the UK health authorities have decided they will only use it to treat those seriously ill with the disease, since using it prophylactially or as "post exposure prophylaxis" (giving it to the key workers and to associates and close family members exposed to infected cases) would quickly exhaust the supply.

At a conference in London last week, Dr Jane Leese the senior government medical officer in charge of pandemic plans, said they were working on the basis that the drug could not be given prophylactically - in other words as a preventative measure.

She said: 'Although it can be taken over time to prevent you getting flu, that would consume a huge amount of the drug, for a very inefficient use for the savings, so this is a strategy for treating ill patients.'

This decision was backed by a Department of Health spokesman. 'Under our current plans, we would be unlikely to use the drug for post-exposure prophylaxis for healthcare workers or for close family members of cases. As the drug takes seven to 10 days to develop an immune response [sic], we don't believe it would be the most effective use of the stockpile.' (The Observer)
Disregarding the incorrect notion that Tamiflu produces "an immune response," the big problem with this is that the drug is ineffective for those seriously ill with the disease. For some already sick it may work to improve their prognosis if treated within the first 48 ours of symptom onset (and preferably within the first 30 hours), but most people will not be treated within that narrow time window, and of those that are, the drug will only be partially effective. Moreover, recent studies suggest the currently stipulated dose may be too low for the H5N1 serotype (bird flu) and higher doses needed.

We are not the only ones surprised by this new policy:

The government's decision to ignore this latter use has surprised health professionals. Professor John Oxford, head of virology at Barts and the London Hospital, said : 'If you gave this to everyone as soon as the virus arrived on our shores it would obviously go very quickly, but if you give it to people once they have been exposed, that would be a sensible halfway house measure. Personally, that's what I would want for myself, knowing that you get 90 per cent protection from the virus if you use it prophylactically.'
Here's something else that allegedly won't happen (but in reality probably will):

It has also emerged that the government will not automatically start to ban flights from Asia once the disease becomes a fully human form of flu.

Studies show that banning international travel would not prevent it from entering the UK as there are so many potential points of entry and it would only have the effect of delaying the disease.
It's true that travel restrictions probably are fruitless to stop this disease, but you can be fairly sure that if there is an explosive outbreak in Vietnam or Indonesia there will be immediate restrictions, whatever the authorities say.

The UK has more advanced planning than the US, but this illustrates how far behind the curve even the UK is. It will all come down to timing. If we have a year, we will be in better shape (if we use the extra time wisely). If it is 6 months, the failure to prepare for what was foreseeable will have deadly consequences.

And I am betting that no one will be held accountable.

posted by Revere at 12:47 AM

Saturday, July 23, 2005
Three? Orange? Give it up

Maybe that WHO is unwilling to raise its "risk level" from Three to higher is now pretty irrelevant, because whatever the "number" is they are making pretty clear they are scared shitless. (for an explanation see The Flu Wiki)

GENEVA (Reuters) - Indonesia's first human bird flu case, coupled with more birds dying elsewhere including Russia, are signs a long-dreaded global influenza pandemic may be approaching, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.

Health officials fear the virus will mutate and mix with human influenza, creating a deadly pandemic strain that becomes easily transmissible and could kill millions of people.

Margaret Chan, WHO's new director for pandemic influenza preparedness, said there had been no known sustained human to human transmission of the deadly virus, but called for stepping up disease surveillance among poultry and humans worldwide.

[snip]

"This is perhaps the only time since 1968, which was the last pandemic, that we are getting signs, symptoms and warnings from nature … More and more birds are dying in different parts of the world — this is the kind of signals, and early warnings that we are referring to."

Russia this week said it had discovered a disease in poultry in a remote village in Siberia, its first suspected case of bird flu. Around 300 birds died and specimens are being analyzed.
This numbering system is now about as relevant as the US Department of Homeland Security's infamous color coding for a terrorist threat. WHO's words speak louder than any "risk number."

And actions will speak louder than words. And the best way to get action at the local level (the only place where it will count) is for national authorities to sound a General Alarm, loudly and clearly. They are traditionally reluctant to do this because of a fear that a pandemic this doesn't materialize (and nobody knows for sure), they will lose credibility.

Two things to say about that: when you don't do something you need to do out of fear, you are gutless. The other is this: these guys don't have much credibility left to lose.

posted by Revere at 10:10 AM

 

[Kim99]

http://news.webindia123.com/news/showdetails.asp?id=100168&n_date=20050724&cat=World


China farmers dead, possibly from bird flu:-
SICHUAN, China | July 24, 2005 7:11:28 PM IST

Chinese health officials are investigating a string of deaths they think may be the mysterious bird flu, The Washington Post reports.

Nine farmers in the Sichuan province have died and 11 got sick between June 24 and July 21, a Health Ministry spokesman said Saturday, all of whom recently slaughtered sick animals.

The bird flu virus has killed 56 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia and ruined poultry flocks across Asia.

Although bird flu has not spread rapidly among humans, health experts worry that it could mutate into a virus epidemic, possibly killing millions around the world.

Now there's this:
Death toll from unknown illness rises to 17 in SW China province

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-07/24/content_3261256.htm

CHENGDU, July 24 (Xinhuanet) -- An unidentified disease have claimed lives of 17 local farmers and stricken 41 others as of Saturday noon in southwest China's Sichuan Province, the provincial health department said Sunday.

Local hospitals have received 58 patients from 49 villages of 23 different townships in the city of Ziyang and its neighboring city of Neijiang over the past four weeks.

All the patients showed similar symptoms like high fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting and became comatose later with bruises under the skin.

Of all the hospitalized, two have recovered and 12 others are in critical condition and 27 are in stable condition.

Preliminary probe found out that the affected farmers have butchered sick pigs or sheep before coming down with the odd disease.

Medical experts said the mysterious disease doesn't seem to be spreading further among humans and the detected cases show no obvious signs of epidemic.

Local governments and health and agriculture departments have set up special investigation and rescue teams and are trying to determine the exact cause of the disease. Enditem


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240502/H5N1_Sichuan_Toll_17.html
Commentary
.
Death Toll From Mysterious Illness Jumps to 17 In Sichuan China

Recombinomics Commentary
July 24, 2005

An unidentified disease have claimed lives of 17 local farmers and stricken 41 others as of Saturday noon in southwest China's Sichuan Province, the provincial health department said Sunday.

Local hospitals have received 58 patients from 49 villages of 23 different townships in the city of Ziyang and its neighboring city of Neijiang over the past four weeks.

All the patients showed similar symptoms like high fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting and became comatose later with bruises under the skin.

Of all the hospitalized, two have recovered and 12 others are in critical condition and 27 are in stable condition.

The above jump in the death toll from 9 to 17 is consistent with reports from residents that the initial numbers were low. The condition sounds like H5N1 bird flu. H5N1 has neurotropic aspects and a boxun report describes patient's skin turning dark, which was a classical description of soldiers dying from pandemic flu in 1918.

In 1918 pandemic flu was frequently mis-diagnoses, and the large number of H5N1 variants produce a variety of symptoms, including bleeding under the skin. The index case in Thailand was initially diagnosed as dengue hemorrhagic fever because of bleeding and a mysterious illness in Thailand was very similar to the cases in China. The Thai case was linked to the slaughter of a wild boar, but a final diagnosis was not made.

Initial reports suggest the current outbreak in China is due to the slaughter of sheep or pigs. H5N1 infection of sheep has not been reported previously, but prior to last year there were no reports of H5N1 in cats or H3N8 in dogs. H5N1 appears to be expanding its host range and the earlier boxun report on H5N1 in Qinghai included the deaths of sheep. 400 sheep have also been reported to have mysteriously died in Mongolia. Thus, the sheep in Mongolia and Sichuan province in China, as well as dead birds in Xinjiang Province in China and Novisibirsk in Russia have pretty much encircled the Qinghai Lake region as H5N1 radiates outward as migratory birds continue to migrate.

 

[Kim99]

From description of 1918 pandemic

http://books.nap.edu/books/0309095042/html/59.html

and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored men from the white. It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes….

 

[mzkitty]

And now for the "paranoid" "woo-woo" version:

Mass Executions Of
Bird Flu Infected
Humans In China?
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com
7-24-5

A Japanese news reporter just happened by my message board by mistake and was interested in learning about the Amantadine-resistant strains of bird flu.

Well, his background is in reporting on Chinese issues for a Japanese newspaper.

I answered his questions and then asked hin for information on the outbreak of H5N1 in Qinghai, China. It looks as though the Chinese news service Boxun is right on target.

In one translation, he describes how his Chinese news contacts regarding the 121 flu deaths have just disappeared...vanished.

From other reports and now his input, it seems entirely possible/probable that the Chinese government and PLA may be killing and burying genuine and suspected flu victims in Qinghai and adjacent areas. It also seems quite likely there are large scale internment/concentration camps for those who are suspected victims. (There is no doubt our satellites are watching all of this very, very closely - jr)

Here are the Japanese news reporter's emails for you to read. It does appear Dr. Niman was right on target...


From: Hyogo E Kenn
To: dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com
Subject: Washington Post article dated June 18th on Bird Flu and China's use of Amantidine
Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005

Dear Patricia,

Hi, this is Kenn Hyogo writing from Tokyo, Japan.

I visited your website by accident, and saw the Washington Post artile together with your short comment.

I'm not a specialist in health issues, so the article looked very nice to me. Could you be kind enough to give me some clue why you don't like the article too much. Is it because the article provides good explanation on the process of use of Amantidine in China, but does not provide much "scientific" explanation on what the "outcome" was, how it influenced the livestocks' health?

I write articles on Chinese social issues, for a Japanese online newspaper called Nikkan Berita, but I do not have much knowledge on health issues. Please accept my apology if I am asking "silly" questions!!

Best regards,
Kenn


"Patricia Doyle, PhD" wrote:

Respectfully, Kenn: It is a pleasure to hear from you. I thank you for taking your time to write and ask the question.

Influenza viruses are able to become antiviral resistant quickly.

An influenza virus has an 8 seqmented genome which enables it to recombine easily and also to develope new strains easily. H5N1 bird flu has become amantadine resistant already.

We saw ALL of the current Viet Nam strains have the mutation for amantadine resistance. When using Amantadine as a prophylactic to try to prevent influenza it actually *caused* the virus to mutate. It also does not work at preventing infecton.

I appreciate your visiting clickitnews/emerging disease site even by accident.

BTW, have you heard any news from Qinghai, China about military quarantines? There have been rumors from Boxun news that the military is in the area and soldiers are going from house to house seeking people with flu-like symptoms and removing anyone suspected of being sick at gun point...and taking them away.

I do not read Chinese and have to depend upon other translations of the website. Boxun newswas the first to describe the scene at Bird Island and the thousands of dead bar headed geese and other birds.

Then they broke a story about 121 people who died of flu. The Chinese government then forbade all news reports on the issue, and also prohibited any news reporters from doing research of the bird flu cases.

In March, Boxun reported suspected Ebola in China and now report Ebola/Influenza outbreak. I cannot verify the stories and would appreciate it if you can find any information or tanslate Boxun reports. (boxun.com)

Thank you again for writing.

Patricia Doyle


From: Hyogo E Kenn
To: Patricia Doyle
Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2005

Dear Patricia,

Thank you very much for your reply.

The 'Epoch Times' Japanese version handles the issue, but most of the news are from other sources, including Boxun. The following article carries some pictures of inspecters conducting quarantine at the suspected village. It says the lake town, normally a tourist place was closed for more than 10 days, and tourists are not allowed to enter. No other special news.
http://www.epochtimes.jp/jp/2005/05/html/d85128.html

The following article dated May 27th reports death of 121 human being, but I believe this is based on news from Boxun. It says all the family member of the dead have disappeared, and cannot be found. It says quarantine is going on. It is interesting that the article says "various" livestocks have died from the flu. Is it possible for cows, sheeps and pigs to catch the flue?
http://www.epochtimes.jp/jp/2005/05/html/d37714.html

The following article says 8 young people (Boxun News reporters - ed) were arrested, for disclosing information on the flu, and since June 5th, no further information is available. http://www.epochtimes.jp/jp/2005/06/html/d48211.html

The following article is about closed meetings in major cities e.g. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. It says officials are on the highest alert status in China's history and suggests that the number of human victims might be big.

The meetings mainly handled two kinds of deseases. One was Ebola fever. Officials were instructed, all patiants or victims will be sent to military hospital. The other one was bird flue. The Media is prohibited to handle ANY news on these deseases. http://www.epochtimes.jp/jp/2005/07/html/d56250.html

The following article, you might have seen before. http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-6-2/29240.html

Not much information is available, due to the reasons stated above. I cannot verify the information on soldiers visiting houses, but I can imagine it's very likely to be happening. Farmers wouldn't leave their lands so easily. I will try and ask some friends, but I think it's difficult to acheive new information.

Thank you again for your reply and explanation.

Best regards, Kenn


Patricia A. Doyle, PhD Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message board at: http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases
Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health

Was on Rense:

http://www.rense.com/general67/massex.htm

 

[CGTech]

AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - EAST ASIA (105): CDC UPDATE
****************************************************
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Sponsored in part by Elsevier, publisher of
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Date: Sun 24 Jul 2005
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Avian Influenza
update, Thu 21 Jul 2005 [edited]
<http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/asia.htm>


Recent avian influenza outbreaks in Asia - as of 21 Jul 2005
------------------------------------------------------------
Background
----------
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) [virus infection]
occurred among poultry in 8 countries in Asia (Cambodia, China, Indonesia,
Japan, Lao, South Korea, Thailand, and Viet Nam) during late 2003 and early
2004. At that time, more than 100 million birds either died from the
disease or were culled. From 30 Dec 2003 to 17 Mar 2004, 12 confirmed human
cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) [virus infection] were reported in
Thailand and 23 in Viet Nam, resulting in a total of 23 deaths. By late
February, however, the number of new human H5 cases being reported in
Thailand and Viet Nam slowed and then stopped. Within a month, countries in
Asia were reporting that the avian influenza outbreak among poultry had
been contained. No conclusive evidence of sustained human-to-human
transmission was found.

Recent Developments
-------------------
Beginning in late June 2004, however, new lethal outbreaks of avian
influenza A (H5N1) virus infection among poultry were reported by several
countries in Asia: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia (first-time
reports), Thailand, and Viet Nam. In late March 2005, state media in the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) officially reported the
country's first outbreak of avian influenza in poultry. There has not been
a resurgence of avian influenza in South Korea and Japan, and the outbreaks
are reported to have been controlled in those countries. It is unknown to
what extent H5N1 outbreaks in the other countries may be ongoing. For more
information about outbreaks in poultry, visit the World Organization for
Animal Health website.

During August to October 2004, sporadic human cases of H5N1 were reported
in Viet Nam and Thailand. Of particular note is one isolated instance of
probable limited human-to-human transmission occurring in Thailand in
September 2004. Since December 2004, a resurgence of poultry outbreaks and
human cases have been reported in Viet Nam. On 2 Feb 2005, the first human
case of avian influenza A H5N1 infection from Cambodia was reported. On 21
Jul 2005, the first laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A
H5N1 in Indonesia was reported.

As of 21 Jul 2005, there have been 109 human cases of avian influenza A
(H5N1) in Viet Nam (87), Thailand (17), Cambodia (4) and Indonesia (1)
resulting in 55 deaths. For more information about H5N1 infections in
humans, visit the World Health Organization (WHO) website.

Assessment of current situation
-------------------------------
The avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic outbreak in Asia is not expected to
diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 infection
among birds has become endemic to the region and that human infections will
continue to occur. So far, no sustained human-to-human transmission of the
H5N1 virus has been identified, and no evidence for genetic reassortment
between human and avian influenza virus genes has been found; however, the
epizootic outbreak in Asia poses an important public health threat.

If these H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained
transmission between humans, there is little preexisting natural immunity
to H5N1 infection in the human population, and an influenza pandemic could
result, with high rates of illness and death. In addition, genetic
sequencing of influenza A (H5N1) virus samples from human cases in Viet Nam
and Thailand shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and
rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of
influenza. This would leave two remaining antiviral medications
(oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against
currently circulating strains of H5N1 virus. Efforts to produce a vaccine
that would be effective against this strain of influenza A (H5N1) virus are
under way. Vaccine reference virus strains already have been made and
provided to manufacturers to produce pilot lots for human clinical trials
as well as to produce a larger quantity of H5N1 vaccine, but mass
production and availability of such a vaccine is some time off.

Recent research findings give further cause for concern. New research
suggests that currently circulating strains of H5 viruses are becoming more
capable of causing disease (pathogenic) for mammals than earlier H5 viruses
and are becoming more widespread in birds in the region. One study found
that ducks infected with H5N1 are now shedding more virus for longer
periods of time without showing any symptoms of illness. This has
implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds
and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have
documented H5 infection among pigs in China and H5 infection in felines
(experimental infection in housecats in the Netherlands and isolation of
H5N1 viruses from infected tigers and leopards in Thailand), suggesting
that cats could host or transmit the infection. These findings are
particularly worrisome in light of the fact that reassortment of avian
influenza genomes is most likely to occur when these viruses demonstrate a
capacity to infect multiple species, as is now the case in Asia.

Notable findings of epidemiological investigations of human H5N1 cases in
Viet Nam during 2005 have suggested transmission of H5N1 viruses to 2
people through consumption of uncooked duck blood. Possible
person-to-person transmission of H5N1 viruses is being investigated in
several clusters of cases in Viet Nam.

One atypical fatal case of encephalitis in a child in southern Viet Nam in
2004 was identified retrospectively as H5N1 influenza through testing of
cerebrospinal fluid, fecal matter, and throat and serum samples. Further
research is needed to ascertain the implications of such findings.

CDC response to outbreaks - domestic activities
-----------------------------------------------
In February 2004, CDC issued recommendations for enhanced domestic
surveillance of avian influenza A (H5N1). Following the reports of human
deaths in Vietnam in August, CDC issued a follow-up Health Alert Network
(HAN) message on August 12 reiterating criteria for domestic surveillance,
diagnostic evaluation, and infection control precautions for avian
influenza A (H5N1). The HAN also detailed laboratory testing procedures for
H5N1. CDC collaborated with Association of Public Health Laboratories on 2
training workshops for state laboratories on the use of molecular
techniques to identify H5 viruses. Planning for a third training workshop
is under way.

CDC is working collaboratively with Council of State and Territorial
Epidemiologists and others to assist states with pandemic planning efforts.
CDC is working with other agencies such as the Department of Defense and
the Veterans Administration on antiviral stockpile issues.

CDC response to outbreaks - international activities
----------------------------------------------------
CDC worked collaboratively with WHO to conduct investigations of H5N1 in
Viet Nam and to provide laboratory diagnostic and training assistance. CDC
has performed laboratory testing of H5N1 viruses from Thailand and Viet
Nam. CDC has implemented a USD 5.5 million initiative to improve influenza
surveillance in Asia. CDC has conducted or taken part in 9 training
sessions to enhance local capacities to conduct surveillance for possible
human cases of H5 and to detect influenza A H5 viruses by using laboratory
techniques. CDC has developed and distributed a reagents kit for the
detection of the currently circulating influenza A H5 viruses. CDC is
monitoring the situation and remains in close contact with WHO and other
international partners. In addition, CDC continues to work collaboratively
with WHO and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on safety testing
vaccine seed candidates and the development of additional vaccine virus
seed candidates for influenza A (H5N1).

More information
----------------
(H5N1), visit <www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/professional/han081304.htm>. For more
information about infection in birds, visit the and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations For CDC's surveillance, diagnostic
evaluation, and infection control precautions for avian influenza A
website. For more information about infections in humans, visit the World
Health Organization (WHO) website. World Organization for Animal Health
website or the Food

Bird import ban
---------------
On 4 Feb 2004, CDC and USDA issued an order for a ban on the import of all
birds (Class: Aves) from affected areas in South East Asia. On 10 Mar 2004,
CDC, in coordination with USDA, lifted the embargo of birds and bird
products from Hong Kong. On 28 Sep 2004, the list of countries affected by
the embargo of birds and bird products was expanded to include Malaysia.

Information on influenza A (H5N1)
--------------------------------
Influenza A (H5N1) is a subtype of the type A influenza virus. Wild birds
are the natural hosts of the virus -- hence, the name avian influenza or
bird flu. The virus was first isolated from birds (terns) in South Africa
in 1961. The virus circulates among birds worldwide. It is very contagious
among birds and can be deadly to them, particularly domesticated birds like
chickens.

The virus does not typically infect humans. In 1997, however, the first
instance of direct bird-to-human transmission of influenza A (H5N1) virus
was documented during an outbreak of avian influenza among poultry in Hong
Kong; the virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, of whom 6
died. Since that time, there have been other instances of H5N1 infection
among humans. However, H5N1 viruses thus far have not been capable of
efficient human-to-human transmission; health officials continue to monitor
the situation closely for evidence of H5N1 transmission between people.

Infected birds shed virus in saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Avian
influenza viruses spread among susceptible birds when they have contact
with contaminated excretions. It is believed that most cases of H5N1
infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry or
contaminated surfaces.

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[see also:
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (93): CDC advice 20050622.1744
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (79): WHO update 20050519.1376
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (59): CDC guide... 20050328.0892
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (34): CDC Updates 20050220.0558
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (09): CDC update 20050116.0144]

........................cp/sh


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[Kim99]

CanadaSue wrote this fabulous explanation of flu for those of us who don't know that much about it (me!). I hope she doesn't mind that I'm posting it here, although from what I've read, she's very generous with her knowledge and insight, and would like to help as many as possible. This is in terms even a "Flu Dummy" like me can understand:


"Flu is a virus. There are three TYPES of flu - A, B & C. The type we're concerned about here is type A. That is divided into SUB-TYPES seen as something like this: H3N2. The H & N are structures on the surface of the virus. The H gets the virus into your cells & the N helps it get out. There are 16 H & 9 N for a total of 144 sub-types of flu. Luckily, most don't make people sick. Until recently, most of the ones that did started with either H1, H2 or H3. In the past decade we've seen H5, H7 & H9 start doing that. Over time flu viruses change so that they 'learn' to infect people. Okay, they don't think, so they don't learn but through mutation & changing their genes they pick up the ability to get into people.

H1, H2 & H3 sub-types have been infecting people for a long time. Most of the ones which can make us sick change a bit from year to year because flu viruses mutate quickly. Because they change quickly, even if you had a whomping case of an H3N2 flu last year, you might get one this year. The good news is - it usually doesn't change THAT much so you won't get as sick. Our immune systems are pretty good that way - they recognize the H well enough to be able to fight it to some degree.

H5 is a flu that up until pretty recently only infected birds. It simply couldn't get into humans The H - if you think of it as a key, couldn't get into & turn the lock into human cells. It might get into human bodies but couldn't do a darned thing. Now it seems it's figuring out how to do that. We know that over 1 hundred people in southeast Asia have become sick with H5N1 & many have died. Uuhhh - why? After all, millions of people get the OTHER H kinds of flu every year & why they often feel like utter crap for a week or more, most recover. When a new H 'jumps' into humans & becomes good at spreading from person to person, it's got a captive audience. Our bodies have never encountered this H, up to now we know very few of the 6.4 billion people on the planet have. Our immune systems have little or no defence. So... more of us get sick. Those who get sick get sicker. Their bodies get so exhausted, so worn down by fighting the flu, they're more likely to pick up OTHER illnesses on top of the flu - a real double whammy. Their bodies are too wiped out to fight it & that's especially true to the elderly, the very young & those who may already have medical conditions which tend to make them sick. People with cardiac problems, respiratory problems, diabetes & any other illness that requires careful attention on their part & a fair bit of monitoring by their health care practitioners are at a higher risk.

In 1918, H1 learned to infect humans. We don't know exactly how it happened or how the virus became able to do that. We have no patient samples from back then that preserved the virus so we don't have all it's genes to study. The important thing is - it did. The war was coming to an end & a lot of people were travelling. Soldiers were being shipped back & forth & refugees & other displaced civilians were also on the move. These folks were pretty stressed out. The war alone was stressful & many were exhausted & worn down by years of fear, moving around, not enough food or the right kinds... a perfect scenario for flu.

The pandemic became known as Spanish Flu because the first news of it came out of Spain although it didn't start there. It raced around the world in just a few months. Then did it again & was even more dangerous. It did it again a third time, not as lethal as the second time but worse that the first time or 'wave' as we call them.

It was 'weird' for a flu. Often it didn't LOOK like flu. We're still not sure why but maybe that's because it WAS new to humans. It sometimes looked immediately like pneumonia or a hemorrhagic fever. Sometimes it looked like cholera, dengue fever, meningitis or encephalitis. In some cases, it might have been those things in a sense. Maybe patients got sick with flu so fast & were exposed to the bugs that caused those other diseases right away & came down with cases of them right on top of their first flu symptoms.

It hit people really quickly. You might be fine at breakfast & literally be taken off your tram car to work an hour later on a stretcher. You might be dead by supper time. There are a lot of stories from all over the world that describe such situations & a lot of them are probably true. Autopsies of some of the dead showed incredible damage to the lungs, heart & other body organs. It must have been terrifying.

We've never known a pandemic, (world wide epidemic) of flu that bad & haven't had anything that awful since - not that fast or that severe. To be honest, we don't know that H5N1 - the bird flu that's now starting to make some people sick - will do that. We sure hope not. But it might. But we're living in 2005 - why can't we get on top of it & beat it before it hits - if it's going to hit?

Frankly, we don't know nearly as much about flu & how it makes us ill as we'd like. For all we know about the body & how it reacts to illness, there's loads more we can only really guess at. Yes we can make vaccine against flu but not enough, fast enough. It takes 6 months to make a vaccine right now & we have to know EXACTLY what subtype is causing the illness. There are only enough vaccine plants in the world right now to make, for a pandemic strain of flu - roughly a billion doses of vaccine - in a YEAR.

We travel a lot faster & more often than people were able to do in 1918. And there are a lot more of us living in very crowded cities where flu will spread quickly. By the time we make & give 1 billion vaccines, the flu might already have gone around the world a few times - those who didn't get sick during the first passing may very well get it on the 'second trip'. Either way, an awful lot of people will be sick at once & with this H5N1 flu, it seems as though it can take a very long time to recover to the point where you can get out of bed for more than a few hours.

Imagine a scene where maybe 1/4 of the people in your area are actually sick with flu? Many of those will be those who work. Who will replace them? Many of those not sick will be busy trying to look after those who are sick? And they may not have a lot of help. This bird flu seems to make people very, very sick - they need to be in hospital. The US has less than 1 million hospital beds & most of those are already filled with patients. Even if you cancelled all elective surgeries & discharged as many people as you could early, there won't be nearly enough hospital beds to take all those with flu who should be in them. And those that do get beds - well, there isn't going to be a lot we can do for them.

Viruses have no treatments. There are a few antivirals out there but they don't work the way antibiotics do & not as well. We might be able to make sure people get enough fluids through IVs & some will have respirators & ventilators to help them breathe. There's not much else we can offer. If they get sick with other diseases on top of flu & if those diseases are caused by bacteria, we can give them antibiotics & hope we have enough of those. It could be more will need them that we have available. Don't forget - people won't stop getting sick for other reasons just because a really nasty flu bug shows up!

It could be a real mess. With the possibility of a lot of people sick at once, not enough to look after them, perhaps no one to 'replace them' at home, nobody to fill in at work, life could get pretty strange. If truck drivers are sick, who's delivering groceries to your local grocery store? Who's putting them on the shelves, pricing them & who's working the cash? Who's ploughing roads in winter & making sure ATMs have money in them?

It gets tougher when you realize that the flu virus can pass easily from person to person. If someone with flu coughs near you as you're inhaling, that's can be all that's needed for you to get sick. Worse, a person can have the virus & not feel sick yet & STILL be breathing out enough virus to make those around him sick - the so called 'silent transmission' period. That makes it next to impossible to stop flu from spreading. After all, how can you make everybody go home & stay there? Do they have enough food or medicine for day to day needs? What if they're working in a crucial job? You can't stop life that easily & unfortunately that just makes it easier for the virus to spread.

We don't know this H5N1 is going to do any of this. Maybe by the time it 'learns' to easily make people sick it will be a much milder disease. But we don't know that. I wish we did. We have had 2 flu pandemics since 1918 & they weren't nearly as bad. Many more died of flu & it's complications than do most years, but not nearly the number who did in 1918-1919. I hope we'll be that lucky but there are no sure bets.

The countries which have human cases of bird flu are, for whatever reason, not sharing what they know about it with the west. So we don't know how bad it is 'out there'. The few human cases from which we have medical details are more than scary - they're terrifying. But... do they represent just SOME bird flu cases or might most end up with patients that sick and many dying?

Most of us here choose to 'plan for the worst & hope for the best'. And we hope all this discussion will prove to not be needed."
__________________

 

[Martin]

Killer Flu Makes 'Sars Look Like Kitten'
Forget the waning influenza B, the bird flu plaguing South-east Asia threatens to be the next killer pandemic to hit New Zealand, say two Christchurch microbiologists.

Ben Harris and John Aitken, from Southern Community Laboratories Ltd, say bird flu is one step from becoming a pandemic, possibly more deadly than the 1918 Spanish flu that killed more than 50 million people.

"What we are facing is what our parents and our grandparents saw as a reality, the influenza," Aitken said.

Already, the virus, known as H5N1, has the hallmarks of a global flu crisis.

South-east Asian farms, where humans and animals live in close quarters, have become a vast breeding ground for the virus. It has crossed into humans, and more than 50 people have died since January last year.

The last step before becoming a pandemic is for the virus to learn rapid, ongoing, person-to-person transmission, Harris said.

"If the virus learns the last step, to do rapid transmission rather than just occasional human transmission, then it would make Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) look like a kitten," he said.

The world faced a new influenza pandemic about three times a century and the next was overdue. The last was the Hong Kong flu 37 years ago.

"There is absolutely no doubt that the clock is ticking towards a pandemic. We know that with certainty. We just don't know what the time is. It will come," Harris said.

The men said there was a "very strong possibility" that the avian influenza was the next big one. It was sparked by agricultural practices, particularly large numbers of pigs, poultry and people living in close proximity, common in Asia.

"I'm prone to underestimate and I would put the threat at 8.5 out of 10," Harris said. "It may not happen, but if it does, we're in trouble."

Despite technological advances that allowed scientists to watch the virus evolving, they were powerless to stop it. The bugs were evolving at a rate far faster than humans could keep pace with.

"In the 1950s you had polio, which was miraculously turned back," Aitken said. "Then antibiotics stopped all these new staphylococcus infections from happening. Now the bugs are evolving and coming back again."

New Zealand has ordered 835,000 courses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, at a cost of up to $40 million, to treat people who become infected and slow its spread. It will be enough to treat only one in five New Zealanders, and the Ministry of Health is taking expert advice on who gets treatment.

Christchurch virologist Lance Jennings said the outbreaks occurring in Third World countries were making the influenza more difficult to track.

"The problem with these countries is that cases are usually identified retrospectively, by which time they (the bodies) are usually cremated," said Jennings, who visited Vietnam in a World Health Organisation (WHO) team in April.

Families were often reluctant to allow samples to be taken from their deceased members for cultural reasons.

"When you have been there and understand those issues, it gives you a different appreciation of why things don't happen and why the WHO is trying to be so proactive," he said.

"The WHO is very concerned at the ongoing evolution of this virus and the possibility of this virus learning how to be transmitted from human to human."

If human-to-human transmission was occurring, as suspected but not proven, it was happening inefficiently, Jennings said.

If the virus improved its transmission, then it would spread rapidly in humans. Air travel could see the bug arrive in New Zealand within days, Jennings said.

"There is a risk there and it is continually being monitored by our Ministry of Health and, of course, by WHO. This is why WHO is doing everything in its power to communicate with countries in the region and get them to try to improve their surveillance.

"If it's not this virus, then it's going to be another virus," Jennings said



http://www.rednova.com/news/health/184592/killer_flu_makes_sars_look_like_kitten/

 

[Martin]

Symptoms in Sichuan China Resemble 1918 Flu Pandemic

Recombinomics Commentary
July 24, 2005

At the beginning of when the high fever continues presently 瘀血, the condition change is rapid, already died nine person of Sichuan strange illness because the official prohibition report, more news were blocked. Synthesis at present up to the media report and the domestic news public figure's disclosure, at present, the Jianyang school suspends classes; The capital positive city sanitation bureau official said is not 萨斯 and the birds and beasts flu; Arises 12 villages and towns 15 villages issue an order dies of illness the pig sheep disinfects deeply buries; The patient has transferred the capital is positive first, the second hospital infection branch receives a medical examination, the entrance has the security guards, the hospital is not willing to disclose the condition, lets arrive the municipal party committee understands; The patient family member indicates, the casualty are more than the official announcement 9 people, the dead whole body becomes dark.
The strange illness body present blood stains whole body becomes dark the reason unclear network people sighs " the science forever is backward "

The strange illness condition change is rapid, at the beginning of when the high fever vomits, continues presently 瘀血, the shock symptom. But has the patient family member discloses, sees the dead whole body becomes dark, on the body has the red spot. (Abundant news boxun.com)

The machine translation of the above boxun report is cause for concern. The closing of the school in Jianyang suggests for human-to-human transmission is being considered. Jianyang is near some of the farms, which had dying pigs or sheep. The number of reported dead has now risen to 17 and the number of villages affected is up to 49. 58 patients have reported symptoms.

The bird deaths in Qinghai Lake raised concerns of H5N1 spreading. It is expanding its host range and has not previously been known to infect sheep. However, sheep were listed in the boxun report on birds and animals affected at Qinghai Lake.

Boxun has also reported details on 10 strains of H5N1, Seven of the ten have been reported in humans. Moreover, there are reports of dual infections which can generate new recombinants with novel pathologies. H5N1 is known to be neurotropic and cause internal bleeding. The internal bleeding was a common symptom associated with the 1918 pandemic. Because the virus produced so many unusual presentations, it was frequently mis-diagnosed as cholera, typhoid, and dengue fever, three frequent diagnosis in Asia.

One description from the 1918 pandemic sounded remarkably like the boxun description of the whole body becoming dark:

and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the colored men from the white. It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes….

Although cases began arriving at local hospitals on June 24, there still is no diagnosis. The comment that the pigs were infected with bacteria is similar to initial pronouncements in Indonesia regarding the cluster of 3 H5N1 deaths, which were in a Tangerang, Jakarta suburb where H5N1 positive pigs had been previously reported. Additional H5N1 positive pigs were found upon retesting.

The large number of villages affected raises the possibility of transmission via migratory birds. There have been bird deaths in Russia and Guangdong recently, as well as new outbreaks in Vietnam and Thailand. The H5N1 at Qingahi Lake is particularly lethal and boxun reports indicate it can kill humans. The OIE reported by China listed 5 species affected, and that number has probably risen suggesting transmission could be widespread, especially as more bird leave Qinghai Lake for Europe, India, and eastern Asia.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240503/H5N1_Sichuan_Pandemic.html

 

[Kim99]

The stories are coming fast and furious now~

http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=7&id=344421

Jakarta TV says Malaysian may have died of bird flu

Monday, July 25, 2005 at 07:42 JST
JAKARTA — A Malaysian cook has died of suspected bird flu at a hospital in West Jakarta, a private television station reported Sunday, but doctors at the hospital denied the report.

Jakarta-based Metro TV reported that the Malaysian national died at the Graha Medika Gleneagles Hospital on July 17 and was cremated on July 21 on the outskirt of Jakarta. The report did not, however, cite the source of the information. (Kyodo News)

 

[Martin]

The Grim Reaper by Louis Raemaekers

 

[Martin]

Hong Kong On Lookout For Deadly Mystery Illness
Killed Nine In China


Jul 24, 2005 8:26 am US/Eastern
HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong hospitals were on the lookout Sunday for a mysterious illness apparently related to pig farming that has killed nine people in a southern Chinese city and reportedly causes fever-like symptoms, vomiting and internal bleeding.

Twenty people were hospitalized with the disease from June 24 to July 21 in the city of Ziyang in southern Sichuan province, the Hong Kong government said Saturday, citing information from Sichuan officials.

Nine died, one was discharged and 10 are still in the hospital, including six in critical condition, according to the Hong Kong government.

World Health Organization spokesman Bob Dietz said the cases may be linked to farmers who have slaughtered either pigs or sheep. The Chinese government has dispatched a team to investigate. For now, the disease doesn’t appear to be spreading, Dietz said.

The unidentified son of one of the victims said in footage aired on Hong Kong television station Cable TV that his father fell ill after slaughtering and eating part of a sick pig.

The pigs in question were infected with streptococcus bacteria, a common pathogen in humans and domestic animals. The humans suffered from poisoning-related shock syndrome and were infected acutely, an unidentified worker at the hospital treating the patients said in a phone interview played on Cable TV.

The Chinese news Web site Sina.com reported Saturday the people infected had symptoms like fever, lack of energy, vomiting, bleeding from blood vessels beneath the skin, and shock.

Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has asked its hospitals to notify health authorities of any patients with similar symptoms, spokesman Raymond Lo said Sunday. The territory is wary of diseases spreading here from China since severe acute respiratory syndrome was brought to the territory by a mainlander in 2003. The disease eventually killed 299 people in Hong Kong.

Animal viruses are also being scrutinized because of bird flu fears. Health officials fear bird flu, which has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia since 2003, may spark the next human flu pandemic, killing millions, by evolving into a form that is easily transmissible among humans


http://cbsnewyork.com/topstories/topstories_story_205082750.html

 

[Martin]

washingtonpost.com
Bird Flu Deaths Sow Panic In Wealthy Jakarta Suburb
Officials Have Not Found Source of Outbreak

By Alan Sipress
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, July 25, 2005; A16



SERPONG, Indonesia -- When Iwan Siswara Rafei, a government auditor, and his two young daughters died suddenly this month, there was panic in their middle-class suburb along with reports that they were Indonesia's first casualties of bird flu.

Neighbors anxiously traded rumors across the metal fences surrounding their neatly landscaped yards. Mothers kept their children from playing on the palm-lined streets. Some families in this quiet California-style subdivision of bankers, businessmen and doctors considered packing up their belongings in their SUVs and abandoning their homes.

Most residents of the Villa Melati Mas bedroom community on the western outskirts of Jakarta had paid little mind to reports of avian influenza, which has devastated poultry flocks across Indonesia during the last two years and killed dozens of people in other Southeast Asian countries.

Then the horror came home to 7 Pondok Cempaka St.

"We've really got a panic attack," said Kresentia Widyanto, 40, a mother of three with shoulder-length auburn hair who wore a floral housedress. "People have been asking, 'Do we need to evacuate and go somewhere else, to vacate this place?' "

For 15 years, Widyanto and her husband, a physician, have lived around the corner from Rafei's brown cottage with its pitched, terra-cotta roof and small purple flowers in planters out front. Widyanto's son is 8 years old, the same age as Rafei's daughter, Sabrina. When the girl was hospitalized late last month with a high fever, diarrhea and a cough, word spread quickly.

Rafei's second daughter, 1-year-old Thalita, developed similar symptoms days later, followed by Rafei, 37. By July 14, all three had died, with Sabrina surviving the longest.

Indonesian health officials announced last week that they suspected bird flu; test results, received Wednesday from a specialized laboratory in Hong Kong, confirmed it. Rafei's sample tested positive for the highly lethal virus while a specimen from the older daughter showed she, too, had been exposed. No test was done for the younger one.

So far, nearly all of the avian flu victims in Asia have contracted the disease from infected birds. International health experts warn that the virus could spark a pandemic, killing tens of millions of people, if the strain evolves into a form easily passed among people.

"I'm wondering why this happened. I'm confused. Can we get this? We're trying to be calm," Widyanto said anxiously as she stocked up on broccoli and cauliflower from a vegetable peddler plying the subdivision's cobblestone streets. She has forbidden her children to eat outside the home in case the virus can spread through food. "We've stopped going to Kentucky Fried Chicken," she said.

Stoking the neighborhood's fear is uncertainty about the outbreak's cause. Unlike the rural villages of Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, where other bird flu deaths have occurred, there are no farmers or live chickens in Villa Melati Mas.

"The mystery about how they got the disease makes us really nervous and government officials can't explain it," said Listari, 33, whose husband is a banker, standing in her front doorway, hands folded on a pregnant stomach.

Around the sprawling subdivision, a few parrots and other pet birds twittered in cages hanging from front porches and balconies. But neighbors buy their meat at the local supermarket, tucked amid recently built malls and strip shopping centers, not from traditional live poultry markets blamed in some other deaths.

"We couldn't imagine this happening here," Listari said. "It's so bizarre, so strange."

Rumors have been rampant. Worried relatives call from elsewhere in Indonesia, agitated by the latest speculation on national television. Neighbors have telephoned the local leader, Sunaryo, in the middle of the night, alarmed by gossip that Rafei's wife had also died. In truth, his wife, son and two maids remain healthy.

"We'd heard of bird flu before but didn't pay attention," said Sunaryo, 62, a retired executive who volunteers as the neighborhood leader. "We got terrified because we didn't know the truth about this disease."

Shortly after the deaths, Sunaryo called into a television talk show featuring the nation's health minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, and asked her to visit the neighborhood to address the residents directly.

More than 200 people crowded into the local swim and tennis club that weekend for the meeting. Flanked by fellow officials, the minister briefed neighbors about the experience of other countries with bird flu. She urged them not to worry, guaranteeing them that bird flu could not be transmitted person to person.

Despite repeated assurances from government officials, the tests conducted on Rafei and his older daughter, coupled with the timing of the three deaths, suggest the virus might have been passed among family members, according to health experts. Although scientists have not proved that bird flu can spread from one person to another, heath experts say it is possible that transmission among family members has already occurred in about a half-dozen cases in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

Rafei's wife and his mother, speaking in interviews outside their house, said they did not know how he and the daughters got sick. Rafei was a busy professional who set out early every morning on his two-hour commute to Jakarta's downtown financial district and returned late in the evening, leaving little time for side trips to farms or chicken markets, they explained. His wife, Lin Rosalina, eyes red from crying, said she was also certain her children had not come into contact with live poultry.

"I'm very sure," she added, switching from Indonesian to English to make the point.

Sunaryo, the neighborhood leader, said he also remained skeptical about official reports that Rafei and his daughters caught the virus from birds.

"We don't know how it happened," he said, sitting on his porch and holding his 18-month-old grandson close. "If we don't know the cause, it might be spreading silently."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/24/AR2005072401146_pf.html

 

[Kim99]

Two more Indonesians hospitalized for suspected bird flu
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-07/25/content_3263127.htm
www.chinaview.cn 2005-07-25 11:05:48


JAKARTA, July 25 (Xinhuanet) -- Two Indonesians have been admitted to hospital for developing bird flu symptoms in the town of Tangerang, where three people died recently from bird flu, local media reports said Monday.

One of the patients, a photographer for a local magazine, has just visited a poultry farming where bird flu killed 750 chickens and he was sent to hospital last Friday for suffering high fever and respiratory problems, reported the Detikcom online news service.

There is no explanation about another patient.

The medical team has taken blood sample from the two patients but the results cannot be made available immediately, it said.

A father and his two little daughters died within six days early this month, with laboratory test showing positive of bird flu attack, the country's first confirmed human deaths caused by bird flu.

 

[USDA]

Death toll from unknown illness rises to 17 in Sichuan


  2005-07-25 09:23 


 

　　CHENGDU, July 24 (Xinhuanet) -- An unidentified disease have claimed lives of 17 local farmers and stricken 41 others as of Saturday noon in southwest China's Sichuan Province, the provincial health department said Sunday.
 

　　 Local hospitals have received 58 patients from 49 villages of 23 different townships in the city of Ziyang and its neighboring city of Neijiang over the past four weeks.
 

　　All the patients showed similar symptoms like high fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting and became comatose later with bruises under the skin.
 

　　Of all the hospitalized, two have recovered and 12 others are in critical condition and 27 are in stable condition.
 

　　Preliminary probe found out that the affected farmers have butchered sick pigs or sheep before coming down with the odd disease.
 

　　Medical experts said the mysterious disease doesn't seem to be spreading further among humans and the detected cases show no obvious signs of epidemic.
 

　　Local governments and health and agriculture departments have set up special investigation and rescue teams and are trying to determine the exact cause of the disease.
   http://english.big5.cqnews.net/system/2005/07/25/000503414.shtml

 

[Kim99]

More Cases Of Bird Flu In Siberia

25 July 2005 (RFE/RL) -
The head of Russia's Veterinary Monitoring Service says the bird flu virus has broken out in four rural districts of Siberia, according to preliminary evidence


Interfax quotes Sergei Dankvert as saying the initial outbreak was discovered last week in the village of Suzdalka, in the western Siberian region of Novosibirsk.

Now, cases among wild birds have been found in three more districts of Novosibirsk Oblast-- Dovolnoe, Kupino, and Chistozernoe.

Authorities in neighboring Kazakhstan have been informed as the three districts lie close to the Kazakh border.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has so far been transmitted mainly between animals. It is carried by migratory birds. But it has killed at least 58 people in southeast Asia and China since 2003.

Experts' greatest fear is that the virus could mutate into a highly infectious strain that could be easily transmitted from animals to humans, or from humans to humans.
(AFP)

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/07/617845f2-dc40-4748-81f0-788e997610bb.html

 

[Martin]

Mysterious Illness Killing Chinese Pig Farmers

BEIJING (AP) - July 25, 2005 — A mystery disease that has killed 17 farmers who handled sick pigs or sheep in China's southwest is unrelated to bird flu or SARS and is probably caused by bacteria carried by pigs, state media reported Monday.

Click Here for more news on wpvi.com's menagerie of Animals & Oddities.
An additional 41 people were hospitalized in Sichuan province with symptoms that include high fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting, and "became comatose later with bruises under the skin," the official Xinhua News Agency said. It said 12 were in critical condition.

The illness likely stems from streptococcus suis, a bacteria that is usually spread among pigs, provincial health official Zeng Huajin was quoted as saying by the China Daily newspaper.

"I can assure you that the disease is absolutely not SARS, anthrax or bird flu," Zeng said. He did not elaborate on how the illness spread to humans, saying more research needed to be done.

A spokesman for the World Health Organization said the symptoms reported "seem consistent" with streptococcus suis.

"We don't think we've seen numbers on this scale before, but it might be because of a heightened surveillance system," said Bob Dietz, a spokesman for the World Health Organization in Manila. "Of course we are concerned anytime we have a situation like this. We will continue to watch it closely."

China is sensitive to such public health threats after criticism of its handling of severe acute respiratory syndrome, which emerged in 2002. The government was widely criticized for its slow response to pleas for information about the disease, which killed nearly 800 people worldwide before subsiding in July 2003.

China also is trying to contain an outbreak of avian flu in its west, where thousands of migratory birds have died in recent weeks.

Dietz said China has so far kept WHO informed "in a timely manner" about the outbreak that killed the farmers. WHO headquarters in Geneva was awaiting laboratory results before it would speculate on what the disease might be.

A man who answered the phone at the Sichuan health bureau on Monday said 17 people have died from the mystery illness and two have recovered. He refused to give his name, saying only that the cause of the deaths was under investigation.

A woman who answered the phone at the Ziyang No. 1 People's Hospital, where most of the patients were being treated, hung up when asked about the cases.

The last major pig-borne epidemic occurred in Malaysia, where 265 people were infected with the Nipah virus between 1998 and 1999. Some 105 people died and nearly a million hogs were slaughtered before the outbreak was controlled. The virus is capable of infecting a variety of animals and is lethal to about 50 percent of human patients, causing encephalitis.

The Chinese ministries of health and agriculture sent a team to Sichuan last week to help investigate, treat and control of the outbreak, the China Daily said.

Xinhua said medical experts believe the illness in Sichuan "is not spreading further among humans," and that there were "no obvious signs of (an) epidemic."

Shanghai's Oriental Morning Post newspaper said the patients were 30 to 70 years old, and one was a woman.

The son of one victim told Hong Kong's Cable TV said his father fell ill after slaughtering a pig and eating some of the meat. The names of the son and victim were not given.

Also Monday, two supermarket chains in Hong Kong stopped the sale of frozen pork from Sichuan as officials sought to assure the public the disease did not pose a threat to the territory.


http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/news/72505-oddity-pigfarmers.html

 

[Martin]

Russia finds bird flu in three more Siberian villages

Monday • July 25, 2005

The deadly bird flu virus has broken out in four rural districts of Siberia according to preliminary evidence, the head of Russia's veterinary surveillance service was cited by Interfax as saying.

Following the discovery of a first outbreak last week in the village of Suzdalka, new evidence suggests outbreaks have occurred in three more districts of the western Siberian region of Novosibirsk -- Dovolnoe, Kupino and Chistozernoe, the surveillance service's head, Sergei Dankvert, said Monday.

"The flu virus... is circulating among bird stocks" in the three districts, Dankvert said.

Authorities in neighbouring Kazakhstan have been informed as the three districts lie close to the Kazakh border, Dankvert said.

The discovery of avian influenza follows measures by Russia to try to prevent the virus entering the country, including a ban on poultry imports from many Asian countries.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has so far been mainly transmitted between animals. But it has killed at least 58 people in Southeast Asia since 2003 -- 39 Vietnamese, 12 Thais, four Cambodians and three Indonesians.

Experts fear it could mutate into a highly infectious strain that could be easily transmitted from animals to humans, or from humans to humans. — AFP



http://www.todayonline.com/articles/63277print.asp

 

[Martin]

Flu viruses can quickly swap genes -study

Monday, July 25, 2005 8:19:26 PM ET

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Strains of the influenza virus are constantly swapping genes among themselves and giving rise to new, dangerous strains at a rate faster than previously believed, U.S. researchers reported on Monday.

They found that slightly mutated influenza A strains in New York that circulated between 1999 and 2004 gave rise to the so-called Fujian strain that caused a troublesome outbreak in the 2003-2004 flu season.

Such events probably are what lead to the occasional pandemics of flu that can kill millions of people, David Lipman and colleagues at the National Institutes of Health found.

They hope their findings, published in the journal Public Library of Science Biology, will help scientists better predict which viral strains will attack during upcoming flu seasons and design better vaccines.

Influenza viruses are notorious for trading genes back and forth and mutating. Scientists previously believed that the gene swapping occurred gradually but the new study shows that several genes can be exchanged at once, causing sudden changes in important characteristics of the virus.

This is why a new flu epidemic sweeps the world every year, killing between 250,000 and 500,000 globally and 36,000 people in the United States alone every year.

Each year, experts must predict which strains will be most common and design a new vaccine to fight them. Some years, such as in 2003-2004, the vaccine does not include the most common strain.

Lipman and colleagues sequenced the genomes of 156 influenza A viruses, named H3N2, that were collected by New York State public health officials between 1999 and 2004.

"We found that there are co-circulating minor variants that are not infecting many people," Lipman said in a statement. "One of these can cause the next major epidemic."

They found "at least four reassortment events occurred among human viruses during the period 1999-2004" -- meaning there was an exchange of genes four different times.

LURKING UNDER THE RADAR

The newly mixed viruses, previously unnoticed because of their low virulence, suddenly became capable of infecting thousands of people.

This suggests that scientists need to study circulating flu viruses more carefully because important mutations can occur suddenly and without warning, the researchers said.

Experts say a new and deadly flu pandemic is certain to come but it is impossible to predict when. The H5N1 avian flu virus, which arrived in Asia in late 2003, has so far killed more than 50 people in the region including Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

It does not easily pass from person to person yet but health officials say it can acquire this ability at any time and if it does, it could kill millions.

A second study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that an early wave of the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic may have hit New York City several months before a big epidemic exploded globally.

The 1918-1919 pandemic was the worst in recorded history, killing as many as 40 million people.

An outbreak at the end of the previous flu season may have killed 3,000 children and young adults, Donald Olson of the New York City Department of Health and colleagues found.

"The historical lesson from 20th-century influenza pandemics is that they occur in multiple waves," Olson said in a statement.

http://www.metronews.ca/reuters_international.asp?id=85754

 

[Martin]

China Halts Pork Exports From 2 Cities Amid Disease (Update1)

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese authorities halted exports of pork products from two cities in southwest China, where a disease linked to pigs has killed 19 people and left 61 others ill, the Hong Kong government said.

Pork products from the cities of Ziyang and Neijiang in Sichuan province were suspended as a precautionary measure, the Hong Kong Health Department said in a statement late yesterday. China is the world's biggest pork producer.

Initial lab tests in China suggest those affected were suffering from streptococcus suis infections related to the slaughter or handling of infected pigs, it said. The bacteria is endemic in swine in most pig-rearing countries, and human infections are possible, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The symptoms displayed by those infected include acute fever, headaches and dizziness, according to China's Health Ministry. The more serious cases can cause meningitis and send a patient in a coma, it said. The ministry said on its Web site that it hasn't detected any human-to-human transmissions.

China is trying to show a quicker response to public health threats after criticism of its handling of severe acute respiratory syndrome, which surfaced in southern China in 2002. The illness spread to 30 countries, infecting almost 8,500 people and killing about 800.

Virus Concerns

Chinese authorities also are stepping up surveillance of registered export pig farms, the health ministry statement said. The Chinese government earlier balked at speculation that the latest deaths in the southwest were caused by bird flu or SARS.

The World Health Organization has been on alert over bird flu since late 2003. The illness has killed more than 50 people in Asia, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand. China has been trying to contain an outbreak of avian flu in the west, where thousands of migratory birds have died in recent weeks.

The Chinese government said it has reported the pig-related infections to the World Health Organization, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, and the health authorities of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau. Residents in Sichuan province have been urged not to slaughter or process sick pigs to prevent the spread of the disease, the Beijing-based ministry said in a statement on its Web site yesterday.

Pork Epidemics

Those infected came from 75 villages in 40 townships, the Chinese statement said.

The last major pig-related epidemic occurred in Malaysia, where 265 people were infected with the Nipah virus from 1998 to 1999, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Some 105 people died and almost a million pigs were slaughtered. The virus is capable of infecting different animals and is lethal to about 50 percent of human patients, causing encephalitis.

In Hong Kong, authorities sought to assure the public the pig disease in China didn't pose a threat to the city. Two supermarket chains in Hong Kong have stopped the sale of frozen pork from Sichuan.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aHyNIKeprKcE&refer=top_world_news

 

[Martin]

Fatal Infections in Sichuan China Due to Ebola-SZ77?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 24, 2005


The virus currently circulating in ZiYang SiCuhan is thought to be a strain of Ebola. However, both authorities and the press have been prohibited from alluding it to be so. Even the use of the word "Ebola" has been banned.

Although minimal information has been released, many Chinese believe that the virus circulating in SiChuan is the EB-SZ77 strain of Ebola that first emerged in ShenZhen , between 19 - 27 May this year. However, what is puzzling is that this strain has evolved very rapidly - it can now be transmitted by 3rd party, unlike the other strains which are only blood borne.

The above comments are form a translation of a boxun report indicating that the deaths in Ziyang, southeast of Chengdu in Sichuan province is due to a rapidly evolving strain of Ebola, EB-SZ77. Earlier reports by boxun had described a number of Ebola strains in China. In the earlier report, all isolates were said to be transmitted via blood. However, EB-SZ77 was capable of transmission to birds.

If true, all of this would be cause for concern, H5N1 has been reported in pigs in Indonesia, so infection of swine in Suchuan would be possible in view of its proximity to Qinghai Lake and the recent bird flu outbreak among migratory water fowl.. Moreover, the unprecedented die-off of birds at Qingahi Lake due to H5N1 infections raises concerns about a catastrohic spread of H5N1,

An 18 nucleotide region of H5 is found in the Ebola env gene, signaling the exchange of genetic information between H5N1 and Ebola (the sequence is specific for H5N1 isolates). Variations in sequences between Ebola or Marburg strains has been noted and Ebola like other viruses can evolve rapidly via recombination.

Isolation and sequencing of the virus causing the deaths in Sichuan Province would be useful.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07240505/H5N1_Sichuan_Ebola.html

 

[Martin]

Lab suspends H5N1 bird flu work on new China rules

CHINA - A laboratory jointly run by universities in Hong and China said on Tuesday it had suspended studies into the H5N1 bird flu virus after Beijing issued new guidelines which triggered fears of a crackdown on academic freedom and independent research into the deadly disease.


The new rules were issued on May 30, five days after the Joint Influenza Research Centre sent an article to the international journal Nature which said that infected wild birds in western China might have picked up the virus from poultry farms in southern China.

A day after the article was published, Jia Youling, director general of the Ministry of Agriculture's Veterinary Bureau, criticised the findings and said no bird flu had broken out in southern China this year.

In comments carried on Xinhua's Web site, Jia also said the joint laboratory lacked "the basic conditions for biological safety" and had not obtained government approval for carrying out bird flu virus research, even though it had initially been empowered by Beijing to study the disease.

The new regulations require laboratories to obtain permission from the ministry before they can carry out research on deadly pathogens and restrict studies into H5N1 to three government laboratories.

A statement by the research centre, which is sponsored by the University of Hong Kong and Shantou University, said it was in full compliance with the World Health Organisation's safety guidelines for work on bird flu viruses, but had suspended work on the H5N1 strain while it applied for government permission.

The H5N1 virus has killed more than 50 people in Asia since late 2003 and health experts fear it could kill millions around the world if it mutates into a form that could easily spread from person to person.

"The Joint Centre has also made an application to MoA (Ministry of Agriculture) for permission to work on 'highly pathogenic micro-pathogens' in order to ensure all research is conducted within the legal requirements," the research centre said in a statement.

A University of Hong Kong spokeswoman could not immediately comment on Tuesday if the ministry had put pressure on the laboratory to halt its H5N1 research.

The agriculture ministry in Beijing declined to comment.

China faced criticism for covering up the initial outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in late 2002. SARS quickly spread around the world, infecting over 8,000 people and killing around 800 of them.

However, the WHO recently praised Beijing's commitment to battling bird flu, which made the first known jump to humans in Hong Kong in 1997.

Source: Reuters - 26th July 2005


http://www.thepoultrysite.com/LatestNews/Default.asp?AREA=LatestNews&Display=8147

 

[libtoken]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4717521.stm

China names fatal Sichuan illness

China believes the mystery illness that has killed 19 farmers in western China is streptococcus suis, a disease common in pigs.
China's health ministry said people had contracted the disease by slaughtering and processing infected pigs.

Sixty-seven confirmed cases and 13 suspected cases of the disease had been reported as of noon on Sunday, it said.

The WHO noted the "disconcertingly high mortality rate" and said it was keeping a close watch on the situation.

"According to research and lab test results, experts believe the disease is caused by streptococcus suis," the health ministry said in a statement.

The symptoms include high fever, nausea and haemorrhaging.

The latest infections were spread throughout 75 villages and 40 towns near the cities of Ziyang and Neijiang, the health ministry said.

The number of people infected with the illness has risen steadily as health officials searched through remote villages in the province for people with symptoms.

WHO alarm

"We are looking at not just a bacteria being active in one herd of pigs, but over a fairly wide area," said Bob Dietz, a spokesman for the World Health Organization's regional office in Manila.

"We see this as a serious situation which bears close monitoring," Mr Dietz said.

In Hong Kong, health officials warned hospitals to look out for similar symptoms and banned the import of pork from Sichuan.

Correspondents say the territory has been wary of diseases spreading from mainland China since the outbreak of the acute respiratory disease Sars, which killed nearly 300 people there in 2003.

 

[libtoken]

Could there have been an oralfecal transmission route in the first three Indonesian cases?

Mon 25 Jul 2005
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org
Source: Washington Post online, Mon 25 Jul 2005 [edited]
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/24/AR2005072401146.html>


Indonesia: Avian influenza Deaths Cause Panic in Wealthy Jakarta Suburb
---------------------------------------------------
When a government auditor and his 2 young daughters died suddenly this
month, there was panic in their middle-class suburb along with reports that
they were Indonesia's 1st casualties of avian influenza. Neighbors
anxiously traded rumors across the metal fences surrounding their neatly
landscaped yards. Mothers kept their children from playing on the
palm-lined streets. Some families in this quiet California-style
subdivision of bankers, businessmen and doctors considered packing up their
belongings in their SUVs and abandoning their homes.

Most residents of the Villa Melati Mas [commuter] community on the western
outskirts of Jakarta had paid little [attention] to reports of avian
influenza, which has devastated poultry flocks across Indonesia during the
last 2 years and killed dozens of people in other Southeast Asian countries.

Indonesian health officials announced last week that they suspected bird
flu; test results, received Wednesday from a specialized laboratory in Hong
Kong, confirmed it. The father's sample tested positive for the highly
lethal virus while a specimen from the older daughter showed she, too, had
been exposed. No test was done for the younger [one-year-old] daughter.

So far, nearly all of the avian flu victims in Asia have contracted the
disease from infected birds. International health experts warn that the
virus could spark a pandemic, killing tens of millions of people, if the
strain evolves into a form easily passed among people. "I'm wondering why
this happened. I'm confused. Can we get this? We're trying to be calm," a
doctor's wife said anxiously as she stocked up on broccoli and cauliflower
from a vegetable peddler plying the subdivision's cobblestone streets. She
has forbidden her children to eat outside the home in case the virus can
spread through food. "We've stopped going to Kentucky Fried Chicken," she said.

Stoking the neighborhood's fear is uncertainty about the outbreak's cause.
Unlike the rural villages of Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, where other
avian influenza deaths have occurred, there are no farmers or live chickens
in Villa Melati Mas.

[Byline: Alan Sipress]

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

******
[2]
Date: Tue 26 Jul 2005
From: Mary Marshall <tropical.forestry@btinternet.com>
Source: Reuters AlertNet online, Tue 26 Jul 2005 [edited]
<http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/JAK168357.htm>


Indonesia: Signs of Avian Influenza Near the Home of Victims
---------------------------------------------------
Indonesian veterinary authorities have found signs of avian influenza in
chicken droppings near the home of 3 Indonesians who died from avian
influenza A (H5N1) virus infection this month, but have not yet linked the
discovery to the victims, an official said on Tuesday [26 Jul 2005].

Experts from the Health Ministry have been puzzled by the deaths of a man
and his 2 young daughters near Jakarta due to avian influenza, the 1st
human fatalities in the world's 4th most populous country. "Our
veterinarian researchers found a positive result from this [fecal test],
but whether (the victims) were infected [from this source] is still
unknown," said Agriculture Ministry spokesman Hari Priyono. "Our problem is
if it is true that it jumped to humans, the ones who would die 1st should
be the farmers."

The chicken droppings that contained the H5N1 avian influenza virus were
found near the victims' family home in Tangerang, a satellite city of
Jakarta. As part of efforts to combat the virus, authorities on Tuesday [26
Jul 2005] killed more than 800 chickens at a farm in West Java province,
where signs of avian influenza infection were found last week.

Indonesia has prepared 44 hospitals across the country for the treatment of
further possible victims. But in a sprawling archipelago dotted with small
farms, and where even many urban families keep chickens, pinpointing the
source of the virus is proving difficult.

Avian influenza, which arrived in Asia in late 2003, has so far killed more
than 50 people in the region, including Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. In
Indonesia, the virus has spread to 21 provinces out of 33 over the past 2
years. It had already jumped species in Indonesia, having been discovered
in pigs on densely populated Java island in May.

--
Mary Marshall
<tropical.forestry@btinternet.com>

[The restriction of the Indonesia outbreak to 3 members of one family,
leaving at least 2 others unaffected, is curious. The mystery of the route
of transmission of infection is further complicated by the fact that the
family reside in an affluent suburban area of the capital city. - Mod.CP]

[Elsevier on-line reference:
Avian influenza: perfect storm now gathering? Lancet, March 2005,
<http://tinyurl.com/bglqq>]

 

[Martin]

Indonesian authorities suspect chicken droppings as source of bird flu deaths
07.26.2005, 05:16 AM

JAKARTA (AFX) - Indonesian officials have found bird flu-infected chicken droppings near the home of a man and his two daughters who died of the virus this month, Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said.

The chicken feces were contaminated with the H5N1 strain of bird flu, but further tests are needed to determine whether the victims had become infected through contact with the droppings, Supari said.

'It's suspected to be the source of the infection but it requires another stage of examination to determine this is the case. So it's not definitive yet,' Supari told Agence France-Presse.

'The question is, why weren't other people in the area infected?' she said.

The government announced last week that an auditor and his two young daughters who died earlier this month in Tangerang district southwest of Jakarta had tested positive for bird flu.

Indonesia's government has promised firm measures to deal with the outbreak and the health ministry has admitted it should have culled more infected poultry to stem the disease.

However in its latest attempt the stem the outbreak on Sunday, officials destroyed only 18 pigs and 40 fowl infected with bird flu on two farms in Tangerang.

The agriculture ministry had earlier said 196 pigs would be killed on the two farms but later admitted that it did not have enough money to implement large-scale culling involving healthy poultry and pigs.

The World Health Organization requires that poultry within a radius of three kilometers from any bird flu outbreak should also be killed.

The government has said at least 9.5 million fowl died since bird flu was first officially confirmed in Indonesia early last year.

Jakarta launched a massive vaccination drive following the outbreak but it has been criticized for carrying out only limited culling.

The deadly H5N1 strain has so far been mainly transmitted between animals but it has killed at least 58 people in Southeast Asia since 2003 -- 39 Vietnamese, 12 Thais, four Cambodians and three Indonesians.


http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/afx/2005/07/26/afx2156509.html

 

[Martin]

Case Fatality Rate of 82% for Mysterious Illness In Sichuan China

Recombinomics Commentary
July 26, 2005

According to an update by the SiChuan Ministry of Health (or their Provincial equilavent), as of 12pm 26th July, 117 cases have been reported in the Pigs-to-Human "Streptococcus" outbreak. This is a cumulative figure. Of these, 5 have been confirmed via laboratory tests, 71 clinically diagnosed and 41 suspected. Of these 117 cases, 5 have been discharged, 21 still remain in critical condition and 24 have died.

The above translation of the report of the Sichuan Ministry of Health indicates that the case fatality rate for the mystery disease is above 82%. There have been 29 outcomes, and 24 of the outcomes has been death. This does not include 14 suspect cases who died before being admitted to a hospital. A case fatality rate of 82% is very high and more like the H5N1 rate for Vietnam and Thailand or the rate of the cases described in an early boxun report on H5N1 deaths linked to the Qinghai Lake outbreak. Rates that high have also been described for Ebola and Marburg outbreaks in Africa.

Only 5 of the 117 cases have tested positive for the bacteria, which is a common bacteria in pigs. Normally the bacterial infection does not cause disease in pigs, but may cause problems when the pig is stressed or infected with another agent.

The high case fatality rate suggests the humans who disposed of the pigs were infected by the primary infection in the pig, not a secondary bacterial infection.

Although some boxun reports have suggested Ebola, the proximity of Sichuan Province next to Qinghai Province suggests H5N1 may be responsible. All of the H5N1 isolates from Qinghai Lake have the PB2 polymorphism, E627K, which has never been previously described in H5N1 isolated from birds. Passage of isolates from Hong Kong or imported duck meat through a mouse brain yield an isolate with E627K, and such isolates were found in tigers that died at a zoo in Thailand had neurological symptoms, which may be related to the meningitis seen in patients in Sichuan.

Thus, the sudden increase of 37 patients reported above, the widespread distribution of cases in at least 75 villages, the high case fatality rate, and the neurotropism, all point toward H5N1 involvement in the expanding outbreak.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07260502/H5N1_CFR_82_Sichuan.html

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-7-25/30562.html

Mysterious Sichuan, China Deaths May Involve Bird Flu
Viral genetics expert voices worrying theory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Cindy Drukier & Jan Jekielek
The Epoch Times Staff
Jul 25, 2005


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




INDONESIA, JULY 25: Bird flu-carrying pigs are being culled in Tangerang, a suburb of Jakarta, where three people infected with the virus, all part of the same family, died this month. Pigs are also dying from the mystery virus that has killed at least 17 people in Sichuan, China. (Jan Jekielek/The Epoch Times)
High-resolution image (1600 x 1067 pixels, 72 dpi)



An unidentified lethal disease has killed 17 farm workers and made 41 others seriously ill in Sichuan province, China, state-controlled media reported on Monday, July 25. According to the Sichuan government, neither Avian Influenza nor Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) have caused the deaths. Based on the official accounts, The World Health Organization (WHO) tentatively agrees with this assessment, Reuters reports.
The symptoms of the mystery illness include fever, nausea, vomiting, bruising, shock, and finally death.

While there is no definitive diagnosis of the disease at the time of writing, several experts have voiced opinions. The Chinese Ministry of Health cites Streptococcus suis, a pig pathogen, as the probable cause. WHO spokesman, Bob Deitz, agrees it’s possible given the information so far. According ProMED-mail, the website of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, the symptoms best correspond to the relatively rare Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever.

However, Dr Henry Niman, founder and president of Recombinomics Inc., a predictive viral change research centre, believes that the disease may be more closely related to bird flu than others suspect.

Niman’s hypothesis is based on independent reports of viral outbreaks that he compiles on recombinomics.com. Lately, he’s noticed a startling pattern. If unconfirmed reports from Boxun.com (an independent Chinese-language site where SARS was first reported) are true, then this mystery disease displays symptoms remarkably similar to those of the 1918 flu pandemic.

Moreover, accounts of a school closure in the affected region suggest that Chinese officials may suspect human-to-human transmission of the disease. According to Boxun.com, it’s also possible that the virus is a new, airborne strain of Ebola – which can, according to Niman, exchange DNA with bird flu to create yet another lethal viral variant.

How seriously should this be taken? Based on past experience, Chinese government reports themselves amount to hardly more than speculation if not downright deception, so the answers lie in thorough investigation. According to Niman, the first crucial step is independent isolation and sequencing of the Sichuan virus.

 

[Kim99]

Talk about ironic:

Bird flu poses risk to vaccine egg supply

By STEVE MITCHELL
WASHINGTON, July 26 (UPI) -- Some infectious disease experts fear an outbreak of bird flu could destroy the supply of chicken eggs needed to produce the nation's annual supply of millions of doses of flu vaccine, but manufacturers and federal health officials say safeguards are in place to prevent such a catastrophe.

The deadly strain of bird flu currently in southern Asia could spread to the United States or be introduced into poultry flocks here intentionally by terrorists, said Dr. Greg Poland, an infectious diseases expert at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn.

"There's no reason to think that terrorists couldn't use what's happening with the bird flu to their advantage," Poland told United Press International. "Imagine, infecting flocks deliberately."

He said all U.S. infected flocks would have to be destroyed -- more than 100 million birds in Asia have been destroyed or killed by the flu virus.

"Think of the chaos that would create" and the economic implications, he said.

Poland, who is a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America's pandemic influenza task force, said this situation could interfere with the supply of chicken eggs needed to make several vaccines. Tens of millions of chicken eggs are required to produce flu vaccine, so there could be no or only limited supplies of either a special vaccine being developed to prevent humans from contracting bird flu or the regular annual flu vaccine.

In a typical year, flu kills 36,000 people and hospitalizes about 200,000.

Health experts fear the strain of bird flu in Asia could adapt to humans and spread around the globe, causing a worldwide pandemic. The virus has killed at least 50 people in several Asian nations, including Vietnam and Thailand, and it may be spreading. Russian officials reported this week that flocks in the Siberian region have contracted a strain of avian flu, but officials have not been able to determine if it is the same strain that is involved in the outbreak in southern Asia.

Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office in the Department of Health and Human Services, said health officials have taken precautions to protect chicken flocks that produce eggs for manufacturing vaccines.

"These flocks are well-protected," Gellin told UPI. "There are other diseases of birds, not just avian flu, and this is designed to prevent infections of flocks that provide eggs regardless of what that infection is."

In addition to keeping the chickens isolated from other flocks and wild birds, there is limited access to the farms where they reside, Gellin said, adding that the farms are subject to regular inspections to ensure all of the required biosecurity provisions are in place.

He noted that redundancy is built into the system. There are more chickens than need, so in the event a flock does become infected, there would be surplus fowl available to meet egg-production needs.

The vaccine manufacturers also are focused on preventing infections of the flocks they use to produce eggs for vaccines.

"It's a risk that we are very aware of and it's a risk that we take great precautions to protect against," said Lenn Lavenda, spokesman for Sanofi Pasteur, the only currently licensed supplier of flu vaccine in the United States.

"To date, we have never had infection of one of the flocks that produce eggs for flu vaccine production," Lavenda told UPI.

Sanofi Pasteur plans to produce 60 million flu shots for the upcoming flu season and this will require "hundreds of thousands of eggs per day," Lavenda said. Ultimately, the company will go through millions of eggs to produce the vaccine supply, he said.

In addition to the precautions cited by Gellin, manufacturers also keep the egg-producing flocks in multiple locations, Lavenda said. This helps reduce the risk of a widespread infection, "so in the event one flock did get infected, it wouldn't spread and jeopardize the entire supply," he said.

Lavenda said the spread of bird flu by agroterrorism is less of a concern than an accidental infection.

"The main risk is that it would happen unintentionally by somebody accidentally bringing a virus in or by some other means," he said.

New chickens are periodically brought in to the flocks to replace birds that are no longer producing eggs, so that could be one way the bird flu or another infection could accidentally be introduced into the flocks.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/ind...-us-birdflu.xml
__________________

 

[Martin]

Bird flu resurfaces in rural Japan
Last Updated Tue, 26 Jul 2005 18:15:21 EDT
CBC News
Japan has found a new case of bird flu in an area that has already been hit by the disease, leading authorities to prohibit the movement of more chickens.



A farm in Ibaraki, north of Tokyo, declared free of the disease in previous tests, was found to be infected. Authorities immediately banned movement of chickens and their eggs within five kilometres of the infected poultry farm.

The farm is near another chicken farm where a flu outbreak was detected in June.

Ibaraki officials had been on the verge of lifting confinement orders for chickens and eggs from that farm.

Ibaraki prefecture has already killed 158,550 birds.

Japan has been relatively spared from bird flu with only four outbreaks last year, the first cases in the archipelago since 1925.

The first case in Ibaraki was found to be H5N2, a weaker strain of bird flu than H5N1 which has killed more than 50 people in Southeast Asia since 2003.

Meanwhile, Russia thinks a bird flu outbreak in a Siberian region is a strain that has never been known to affect humans, but has taken emergency precautions just in case.

Russia's top epidemiologist says the outbreak in the Novosibirsk region announced last week was Russia's first, which has killed 1,135 farm birds.

The initial assessment has identified the outbreaks as the H5N2 strain.


http://www.cbc.ca/story/news/national/2005/07/26/birdflu050726.html

 

[Kim99]

They carried the bird flu virus but maybe that's not what killed them? The virus that's been killing the migratory fowl in Asia is pretty deadly.


Exact cause of domestic bird deaths in Novosibirsk Region not yet identified
16:31 | 27/ 07/ 2005

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20050727/40984478.html


NOVOSIBIRSK, July 27 (RIA Novosti, Maxim Koshmarchuk) - Scientists have not yet identified the exact cause of bird deaths in the Novosibirsk Region (southwest Siberia), local Chief Medical Officer Valeri Mikheev said Wednesday.

"We are continuing our lab research," he said. "It is a fairly complicated process."

Specialists at the Vector state virology and biotechnology center situated near Novosibirsk as well as specialists at the animal healthcare center in Vladimir (200km east of Moscow) are investigating this issue, Mikheev said.

Lab analysis of blood and internal organ samples from the dead birds had previously revealed a Flu-A antigen, the so-called "bird-flu" virus. Scientists have established that this strand of the virus poses no threat to humans.

Specialists have not reached any final conclusions on whether this virus was the cause of the bird deaths.

Vector Center researcher Alexander Shestopalov said the "bird flu" virus could be one of the causes of death.

Shestopalov believes the virus was carried into the Novosibirsk Region by migrating birds this spring. "All the data I have points to this," he said.

The deaths of both wild and domestic birds - chickens, ducks, geese, and turkeys - were discovered in several rural districts of the Novosibirsk Region, which migrating birds use as a resting point. All of the dead birds have been incinerated, and sanitary measures have been taken in the areas where they died. No humans have been found to be affected.