SOFT NEWS Art Bell & EMP's

Shazball

Contributing Member
Friday November 27, 2009

Filling in for George, Art Bell will speak with Prof. William Forstchen about how EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attacks could disable the power grid over large swaths of America.



I know there are a few of us here who still enjoy listening to Art. Just a heads up.


Great topic too!
 

johnnymac

Inactive
Friday November 27, 2009

Filling in for George, Art Bell will speak with Prof. William Forstchen about how EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attacks could disable the power grid over large swaths of America.



I know there are a few of us here who still enjoy listening to Art. Just a heads up.


Great topic too!


When? Where? How to listen/watch/imagine? Details please...
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
Shazball, thanks for the heads up

Forstchen is a history professor, not an RF engineer or research scientist. And while his book One Second After was an interesting book, and a very good read, it was fiction, and had some serious technical issues. None the less, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say. I'm waiting to hear whether he changes some of the info from his books, or if he keeps them in the broadcast.

One device won't do jack to the US. In his book, it has the US being brought to it's knees by a single device fired form a cargo ship.
All electronics, even devices that were not connected to long lines were affected. In reality this won't happen.
Automobiles, unless they are based heavily on networked control modules, should work fine, there just is not enough conductor length to damage simple modules, and at the worst, will only confuse the networked cars to the point that they might need re-flashing. In the book, almost every car died completely, including airplanes and other vehicles. In reality, this won't happen. Think about how many airplanes each year get hit directly by lightning, and lightning has a LOT more local energy than HEMP does.

Remember this, if a HEMP attack worked anywhere near as good as everybody fears, somebody would have used it on somebody else. The problem is that it doesn't work that well, and it is traceable, so whoever attempts it, will be known.

If one DID happen, and it used at least four devices across CONUS (timed correctly), which is what would be needed to do real damage, then enough equipment would be damaged to cause our tightly scheduled JIT system to go TU in a few days. Would we stay down as a nation for months or years? That depends on our economy, and our leadership. During normal times, a HEMP attack would not do enough damage to "put us back to the 1800's", but now we have a government with a LOT of internal "issues", and an economy that is in tatters. What we would see is a BIG shift to very local industry, and economy, and a complete failure of anything that takes 500 miles of more to keep running. This includes any national systems, companies and government assets. JIT will take months or years to get back in correct operation, and may never be fully used again, just because it has no room for problems or failures. Recovery will all depend on how much we can restructure on a local level, and then link to neighboring localities. One county working with another will get the states back online, and one state working with another will get the US back online. COMMUNICATIONS AND LOCAL SHIPPING WILL BE THE KEY TO GETTING THINGS BACK TO "NORMAL".

I would not be too worried about EMP as something that will kill the US. It is a possibility, not a probability. We have a bigger probability of a nuclear attack on the ground, on our infrastructure, which would do just as much damage to our fragile JIT system than a HEMP attack would do, plus any terrorists would see the evening news and celebrate for weeks. There are plenty of things that have a much higher probability.

Speaking of probabilities, I wonder how many people have thought about all of the stores that are run by muslims that may have gone to the Hajj and are coming home with swine flu. Just in time for the holidays at the mall...cough...cough...
_____

Either way, I do want to see the movie as well when it comes out late 2010 or 2011 (it is in production now).

Loup
 

Old Gray Mare

TB Fanatic
If one DID happen, and it used at least four devices across CONUS (timed correctly), which is what would be needed to do real damage, then enough equipment would be damaged to cause our tightly scheduled JIT system to go TU in a few days. Would we stay down as a nation for months or years? That depends on our economy, and our leadership. During normal times, a HEMP attack would not do enough damage to "put us back to the 1800's", but now we have a government with a LOT of internal "issues", and an economy that is in tatters. What we would see is a BIG shift to very local industry, and economy, and a complete failure of anything that takes 500 miles of more to keep running. This includes any national systems, companies and government assets. JIT will take months or years to get back in correct operation, and may never be fully used again, just because it has no room for problems or failures. Recovery will all depend on how much we can restructure on a local level, and then link to neighboring localities. One county working with another will get the states back online, and one state working with another will get the US back online. COMMUNICATIONS AND LOCAL SHIPPING WILL BE THE KEY TO GETTING THINGS BACK TO "NORMAL".

Loup

What about trains? While trains do not have the flexibility trucks have they have the capacity to move very large quantities of goods and resources great distances. Coal was the initial power of the industrial revolution. The US is not going to run out of coal or steel anytime soon. The steam engine technology is proven and known if somewhat dated. I don't know if it would be possible to retrofit modern diesel electric engines to run on coal. Being that train engines are big solid steel boxes would they be impervious to an EMP attack?
 

Shazball

Contributing Member
When? Where? How to listen/watch/imagine? Details please...

I for one just tune in on the ol AM radio band. It is syndicated on many stations throughout the USA, The show is called "coast to coast am" and begins at midnight CST. (adjust accordingly to your time zone)


I am sure you can stream it many places on the web. Including the "coast to coast" website. Someone here might have more specifics on that end for you.
 
EMP or CME - either one could do the job.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection

"...CME events, along with solar flares, can disrupt radio transmissions, cause power outages (blackouts), and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission lines..."

We're currently in an unusually prolonged solar minimum - some suggest that 2012 or thereabouts might be the opposite, a solar max where CMEs might be numerous and severe...possibly doing similar damage to that of EMPs.

IIRC, there was an extraordinary CME event in 1859 which if it happened today could easily be a massive disaster to the power grid & elsewhere.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_031027.html
 

Double_A

TB Fanatic
I love Art Bell.

His guest is a bozo.Too bad to waste a rare Art Bell appearance on his guest.

But I guess Loup already said it better.

ETA: After re-reading this bozo is too harsh a description. My issue is that he has little technical background and as such his book, except for the appendix at the end which was not written by him, is a fictional description of the very worst case possibly imagined and the in reality it would be spotty in it's effects and very likely much less severe. The book was hastily put together in a short period for political propaganda type intent.
 
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LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
What about trains? While trains do not have the flexibility trucks have they have the capacity to move very large quantities of goods and resources great distances. Coal was the initial power of the industrial revolution. The US is not going to run out of coal or steel anytime soon. The steam engine technology is proven and known if somewhat dated. I don't know if it would be possible to retrofit modern diesel electric engines to run on coal. Being that train engines are big solid steel boxes would they be impervious to an EMP attack?

Trains, being another "small" device that is not connected to long cables or wires will be affected to the same level as cars and trucks. Yes, you could see some sporadic failures, depending on the device types, and connection issues, but as far as an outright failure of the train itself, or cars or trucks themselves on a large scale, you won't see it. What will happen is enough power disturbances on the grid to probably knock out at least temporarily the grids (power, telephone (and internet), and cable (plus others)). What this means is that while the trains will run, communications will be down to point to point or point to local repeater zones ONLY. There will be very little long distance communications in operation if we have a real HEMP attack using multiple devices, planned and orchestrated correctly, because most of them require infrastructure to operate. Without that long range communications ability, getting anything (people or things) from one point to another will be a MASSIVE challenge.

The other thing that will be damaged to one extent or another, besides the grids, is all of the devices that are connected to the grids, especially SCADA and other devices that monitor and control things around the country. Trains need these things to be running correctly. Think of all of the track sensors and switches that route trains from one area on one track, to another area on other tracks. All of those switches that allow a train to veer off one track and onto another are connected by long lines, AND require power from the grid. If those are offline, then trains will stay on the track that they were last set for, and with the sensors also offline, there is no way to tell where any specific train is (unless they can radio back through other trains).

Look at it this way, let's take an Amtrak run from DC to Boston for example:

Back in DC, Amtrak engineers must check the track status for at least the next 100 miles before even starting out of the station. If a train is coming down that track heading south, they obviously can't start moving north on that track. They also have to communicate their plans northward so that other trains don't head out after they start. Sure, local communications could work from train to train if they kept the number of cars that they are pulling down, as well as kept their speeds down, but at 50 mile per hour, an oncoming train is closing in at 100 miles an hour, and may take miles to stop. Train to train direct comms may work from as far away as 10-30 miles, but also may not even work 3-5 miles if the conditions are wrong. At 5 miles, they may not even be able to stop if they are both running along at 30 miles per hour if they don't communicate often enough to detect the issue. Plus, without long distance communications, there would be no easy way of telling what to ship, where to ship it, and what else is needed if it can't be shipped to there.

The trucking industry will face similar problems. CB will fill in local gaps, but until they can place orders and figure out routes and times, shipping will be either a hit or miss affair, or be highly inefficient. And with fuel production and delivery also up in the air, moving without a purpose will be a very bad idea.

Cellular is going to be black for a LONG time if a HEMP attack is done right. Cellular not only requires power from the power grid, but also an internet connection to provide both their voice and data connections, AND it requires a connection to it's own servers to allow the connections to be made in the first place (the connection won't be started unless the user is authorized, and can be billed). Cellular phones WON'T work from phone to phone without the tower(s) working in the middle.

The same is true with satellite phones. Sure, technically the satellite could connect one satphone user to another if it was programmed to, just like a cellphone tower could connect two cellphone users together on that same cellular tower if it was programmed to. Billing and customer authentication would be next to impossible, but they could be reprogrammed to do that. This would require work at the uplink/downlink site, which would have to be up and running, to reprogram the satellite to allow "repeater" functions. Likewise if a cellular provider could get an engineer team (or a bunch of technicians) to each cellular site, then they could be reprogrammed to allow "repeater" connections. This would not allow people to make cellular calls from one site to another, but it could allow emergency crews to work efficiently in an area, especially if they could use enough microwave backbones to get the towers connected to each other.

The key issue, right up there with power being restored, is communications beyond line of sight. Being able to communicate your needs, as well as your abilities and products is the ONLY thing that would get things back up and running. A city, having the ability to communicate to the surrounding areas and other cities can tell them what they need, and what they have to barter with to get those needed things. For example, they may have water, supplies, and engineers, but little food. If they can communicate with surrounding counties what they have and what they need, bartering can happen. Without that communication, people would have to travel, with that knowledge of needs, resources, and abilities and discuss personally with every outlying area. This could take weeks or months as local communications from area to area would also be slim to nonexistent. Power is what makes things happen, but communications are what makes it productive and efficient.

Loup
 

Zulu Cowboy

Keep It Real...
It seems to me that our nation's trains are connected to miles and miles of rail.
Won't the rails themselves, act like a giant antenna for collecting EMP? :shr:

Zulu Cowboy
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
It seems to me that our nation's trains are connected to miles and miles of rail.
Won't the rails themselves, act like a giant antenna for collecting EMP? :shr:

Zulu Cowboy

Most of them are well grounded, either directly or indirectly. Plus, all of the wheels on the train are nothing more than shunts from one track to the other. The frequency is too low (wave too long) to develop enough voltage between wheels on the same side with that heavy a conductor (track being basically an I-beam that is about 4-5 inches high and 2 inches wide).

What kills the grids is all of the separate long lines all connected at devices like transformers and other interconnections that can't take the excessive power levels. 100 miles of cable would handle the pulse just fine if it was unconnected at both ends. The fact that it is not only connected to devices that are also grounded, but also connected to devices that are connected to other lines (usually at other angles than the first line), is what fries things.

This is why when your power lines are hit during a thunderstorm, the devices that are fried are usually connected to more than one grid (TV, cable box, modem, computer).

Loup
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Art kept doubting his 90% population die-off claims. Maybe in the big cities if the grid stayed down for months, (thinking NOLA Katrina-types here), but certainly not 90% nationwide.

The show might wake a few people up though. We should have never let the crazies in N. Korea and Iran to get this far with nukes.

I am always happy to listen to Art. Besides being a master voice on the radio, he is a bit of a techie geek, and knows radios, antennas and basic electrical concepts, anyway.
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
The HEMP data was still more "doomerish" than reality will actually deliver, but he is still basing it on open source info, especially the commission report. Even Art had an issue with the 90% mortality rate and the "one device" superkill that the report was famous for. All in all a good listen, just remember that HEMP is NOT that deadly, to equipment or humans.

That being said, I am glad that he did mention several times what COULD easily clobber not only the girds here, but across the globe. He mentioned the Carrington event, but any good sized CME could easily toast our long line connected systems, and it would take decades to get them back online. Yes, HEMP and CMEs operate on the same principles, but CMEs are millions of orders of magnitude larger, and longer duration. A HEMP heave is done with in a matter of a minute or less. CMEs can last many minutes long, cover 58%-70% of the Earth's surface at one time (wraparound due to the both the interplanetary magnetic field's effects on our upper atmosphere, and the CME's pressure itself), and have power densities millions of times stronger than even a gamma enhanced nuke's HEMP. Even worse than a CME, would be a direct hit from a local GRB (Gamma Ray Burst), which not only WOULD affect life here on the planet, since not all of it would be transformed into HF RF in a worldwide Compton's field (a lot of it would blast through). Both CMEs and GRBs will still only affect long line connected systems though. All portable, non-connected devices will be just fine.

HEMP is definitely not high on my list of worries. CMEs and GRBs are a little bit higher, but still not a major issue, even though they DO have the power to cause massive, global electrical issues

And again, thanks for the heads up Shazball.

More reading on the Carrington event and similar topics:
http://www.naturalnews.com/027217_civilization_water_human_civilization.html (notice the date)
http://adsbit.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?bibcode=1859MNRAS..20...13C
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/06may_carringtonflare.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm


I've got a few good PDFs on the Carrington and CMEs in general, I will try to post them later.

Loup
 

Old Gray Mare

TB Fanatic
Without that communication, people would have to travel, with that knowledge of needs, resources, and abilities and discuss personally with every outlying area. This could take weeks or months as local communications from area to area would also be slim to nonexistent. Power is what makes things happen, but communications are what makes it productive and efficient.

Loup

Thanks Loup for the detailed explanation it is hard for me to get my head around these ideas without the needed technical background to weed out what is fact and what is fiction. Pony express communication would be ineffcient. You make is sound like the telegraph may be making a come back.

Along the topic of trains; along with" productive and efficient " I would have added safe or at least safer. Without communications not only will transportation of goods, people and resources slow down they will also become more dangerous. It is not real hard to see the potential for some serious accidents here. This could cause the deaths of skilled labor needed to run and maintain the trains, tie up track and destroy or damage engines and track at a time when it will be that much harder to fix or replace them. It is hard to imagine railroad's going back to the age the gandy dancer and relying on semaphore and track torpedos for the bulk of their communication.
 
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ceeblue

Veteran Member
Tin foil hat comment. A few years ago there was a cascading power failure in the northeast that was nailed down to something going wrong in I think it was Ohio. A few weeks before or after that, there was a big power failure somewhere in Europe, maybe southern Europe. It's been a few years and my memory fails. A couple months or so after these, there were rumors both failures were caused by some Israeli testing some weapon, just one man with a small device.

Does anyone remember that?

And I haven't been following the stories about the recent power failures in South America. Has a cause been published?
 

knickgnat

Veteran Member
Listened last night. Usually like Art's interviews, but he seemed to be commenting more than asking significant questions - the guest didn't provide much information - but maybe that was due to the questions. Also, did it seem like there were more commercials than usual? Usually, I enjoy these, but not last night.
 

Double_A

TB Fanatic
I enjoyed the interview last night much more than I though I would.

But I noticed one thing consistently, he never ever gave a technical answer to a a technical question. He couldn't, as he is not a technical expert guy. (and I don't remember Art asking any really technical questions although some listeners did)

He wrote a fair fiction book that was entertaining.

Just because his book explains somethings that surprised you because you hadn't thought of that, does not make him an expert on EMP and does not make his book the "go to" source for information, any more than the movie 2012 is a source for info on the Mayan calendar and CME's.
 

Mr. Dot

Inactive
Comments:

Alright, alright, alright already Art...so you don't buy the guest's 90% figure. Got it. Jeeze.

Alright, alright, alright already Art...you buy into global warming and think all scientists except 'skeptics' consider the subject closed. Got it. Jeeze.
 

lectrickitty

Great Great Grandma!
What about trains? While trains do not have the flexibility trucks have they have the capacity to move very large quantities of goods and resources great distances. Coal was the initial power of the industrial revolution. The US is not going to run out of coal or steel anytime soon. The steam engine technology is proven and known if somewhat dated. I don't know if it would be possible to retrofit modern diesel electric engines to run on coal. Being that train engines are big solid steel boxes would they be impervious to an EMP attack?
Are you thinking of the old steam engines with trails of black soot streaming from the smoke stacks? :D That might give both Gore and BO an aneurysm, a heart attack, or a combination.
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
...
Does anyone remember that?

And I haven't been following the stories about the recent power failures in South America. Has a cause been published?


There were eight or nine large scale failures around the world that summer. It wasn't any attack that did all of that, it was two things: First, a larger than normal load that shifted several times from one part of the country to another, making the power management teams that keep generation, transmission, and load sharing/shaving stay on their toes for about two weeks before it started to have issues. Secondly, a LOT of the infrastructure had not seen an upkeep or maintenance, leaving a LOT of different parts over a VERY large area not exactly ready for even 75% rated capacity usage, much less over 90%. Parts of the system had not seen maintenance in years, and other parts had serious problems with brush and tree growth near lines.

Now, consider the fact that a LOT of the grid is in WORSE shape now as some of the power companies have been cutting back on maintenance schedules and upkeep. And since all of the grids are connected and depend on each other to be stable, or at least be able to notify the neighboring grid segments in the event of an "issue". The event that knocked out the northwest as well as other states, started with a tree limb that knocked out a mid-level feeder and balance issues nailed the rest of the networks.

A non-direct hit CME or GRB would easily off balance a LOT of the gird networks, which could take hours or days to get back in sync. A direct hit would leave a LOT of things damaged beyond repair, and getting the top level of the grid up locally might take months, and completely might take decades.

Loup
 

bobpick

Inactive
Art kept doubting his 90% population die-off claims. Maybe in the big cities if the grid stayed down for months, (thinking NOLA Katrina-types here), but certainly not 90% nationwide..

The guest did state that the 90% was from the 2004 (2006??) Congressional study. However, assume it will be bad and then it will be worse.
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Recap for those who missed it,

Electromagnetic Pulse Attack

Date:
11-27-09
Host:
Art Bell
Guests:
William R. Forstchen


Filling in for George, Art Bell spoke with Prof. William Forstchen for the entire program about how an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack by a rogue nation could disable America's power grid and communications infrastructure, and lead to an inconceivably high death toll.

Forstchen provided details on Starfish Prime, a high-altitude nuclear test conducted by the U.S. in 1962, which increased our awareness of the serious repercussions of EMP. The detonation took place high above the Pacific Ocean yet caused significant electrical damage several hundred miles away in Hawaii, he said.

Major solar flares can also produce EMP, Forstchen added, noting the Carrington Event of 1859, the most powerful solar storm in recorded history. If such a storm hit our planet today, over 80% of the electrical generating systems in the Eastern U.S. would still be offline four years later, he estimated.

Forstchen pointed out that North Korea or Iran could easily place an EMP-calibrated weapon within range of America and blow out the entire U.S. power grid. A 2004 Congressional Study projected a stunning 90% fatality rate from such an attack, he remarked, explaining that it would cause an almost immediate shortage of potable water, food and medical supplies, and eventually lead to a economic and societal collapse.

"We can stop this before it happens," Forstchen said, agreeing with Art's assessment that America should preemptively strike any country preparing to launch an EMP attack against it. Forstchen also proposed the U.S. harden its infrastructure and begin stockpiling replacement parts to rebuild it.

Website(s):
onesecondafter.com

Book(s):
One Second After
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
Found some of the PDFs that talk about the CME based problems that are a lot more probable than a successful HEMP attack.

Both are a bit "dry" and more into the engineering/scientific side, but both are very interesting, and tell a tale NOT told by TPTB, simply because it is millions of orders of magnitude more devastating than a successful HEMP attack, and a lot more probable.

Here are two, as soon as I can find open sources for the other (if there are OSs for them), I will post here as well.

http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/1775/2009/angeo-27-1775-2009.pdf
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/severespace_weatherevents.pdf


A good example (listing) of how many times a CME or other solar weather event decides to nail us good. This is a report JUST about Sweden's internal experiences with GICs (Geomagnetically Induced Currents). Notice how often they have been occurring and what level of damage has been happening with just MINOR solar events.

From: http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/1775/2009/angeo-27-1775-2009.pdf

Table 1. Problems due to GIC in ground-based technological systems
in Sweden.​
Date, Effects
2 Sep 1859, Problems with the telegraph system in Gothenburg
13–15 May 1921, Fires in telegraph equipment
11 Feb 1958, Fires with severe damage in telegraph equipment
13 Nov 1960, 30 line circuit breakers tripped in the high-voltage power network
13–14 Jul 1982, 4 transformers and 15 lines tripped in the high-voltage power system. Railway traffic lights turned erroneously to red. Telecommunications were also affected.
8–9 Feb 1986, 5 events in the high-voltage power system, 1–3 lines tripped per event
13–14 Mar 1989, 5 130 kV lines tripped, 5-degree temperature increase in a generator
24 Mar 1991, 9 220 kV lines and a transformer tripped
9 Nov 1991, One 220 kV line tripped. Large pipe-to soil voltages in a pipeline
1999, Radio communication for protection lost in the power system
2000, Voltage drop in the 400 kV system
6 Apr 2000, Largest GIC ever measured in a transformer (about 300 A)
30 Oct 2003, Power blackout in Malm¨o, excess heating in a transformer
8 Nov 2004, GIC of over 100A measured in a transformer in southern Sweden

Keep in mind that the higher the latitude, the more pronounced the effect since the charge dissipation will extend further to the ground as it nears the poles. That magnetic shield is because of our magnetic poles, and this is teh reason that Sweden and the rest northern Europe see more of the "glitches" than southern Europe, or other places closer to the globe. This is also the reason that Canada is also very sensitive to Solar events and why their power and communications networks have had issues with it a lot more than CONUS has. Australia also sees a lot of these events, since it is closer to the other pole, and is rather infrastructure dependent.

Loup
 
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