an ignored Clear and Present Danger...

[LMonty911]

This weeks New England Journal of Medicine has just published an extremely clear and important article on the threat that the Avian Flu poses for an upcoming pandemic.

This is a very readable article-you dont need a medical degree to understand the issue.

IF you havent been preparing for a flu pandemic- please read this article! I hope it will change your mind, or at least increase your awareness to this threat-which is a very clear and present danger to the entire world.

Now is the time to prepare- SARS taught us that as soon as the threat reaches public awareness that the supplies and preps you will need will no longer be there! Masks, gloves, medicines and other important items may not be available when you need them.

Flu SHOULD get quiet over the next couple of months-thats the usual pattern. If its mutating to more efficient H2H spread and breaks out this fall/early winter, you may get blindsided unles you prepare in advance. Please, for the sake of your loved ones, keep this threat-and what you need to do to mitigate the damage-high on your personal radar.

If we end up with a 5% death rate from the coming pandemic- well, with 400 members here, its very likely that up to 150-200 of us could be infected. I daresay that there wil be no member who will not have lost a close friend or loved one. Twenty of us will be dead from the flu after the pandemic unless you take action NOW to educate and protect yourselves. As a corrollary, consider the effects of a pandemic on the economy-which we know is holding on by a thread as it is...no one will escape that social effects that the pandemic will cause.

If you think the PTB can handle this, think again...There is no way that there can be enough antiviral or immunizations to protect the public. None. Nada, Toatally impossible. We dont have the production capability. We cant build it in time, even if we started yesterday-and got lucky enough to gues the right formulation for a vaccine for a virus that hasnt yet stopped evolving! We cant conjure it out of thin air. If this virus breaks out in a redux of 1918, theres no way we can stop it, any more than we have the technology to slow or deflect a tornado or hurricane or stop a tsunami. The global effects may be immeasurably worse that any natural disaster in memory.

When the prestigious and rather conservative NEJM warns of this, and does it with a free and unrestricted web access to a new article- its time to listen. I pray that we escape this threat- but I prepare in case we dont. It's not the odds, its the effects- and this time the odds are clearly stacked against us. This bug may well do to the world what Y2k couldnt....

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839

 

[LMonty911]

Here is an article from the financial section of the local paper. again, notice his assumption that there will be enough antivirals, or an immunizaton (although he does say "don't hold your breath") but IMO he still presents that in a manner that encourages readers to think that they may help ...a common error in assumption we see in many news articles. He also uses the very low numbers that more and more researchers are agreeing are a best case scenario- and unlikely.

: http://www.jsonline.com/bym/invest/may05/322853.asp


Avian flu pandemic could be massive disaster – and few are noticing
Posted: May 1, 2005


Tom Saler
E-MAIL | ARCHIVE


It is said that the worst disasters are the ones that you don't see coming.

Currently, investors are hunkered down against the clear possibility of domestic stagflation - the ruinous combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation.

Yet the fact that investors recognize that stagflation is a possibility implies that its dangers are already reflected in stock prices.

As such, even if a mild form of stagflation were to take hold, the impact on stocks would probably be limited to a further decline of roughly 10%.

Halfway around the world, however, a far more dangerous story is unfolding, both in human and financial terms.

Though it has received only sporadic media coverage, world health officials remain concerned that the so-called avian influenza could become a global pandemic later this year.

The virus (known as Influenza A H5N1) was first detected in eight East Asian countries in 2003 and caused the deaths of 100 million birds. By April 2005, H5N1 had leaped the species barrier and killed at least 51 people in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand.

Experts are unsure if the bird flu virus will mutate enough to facilitate easy person-to-person transmission.

Given the global nature of modern commerce, however, it's a safe bet that if the virus eventually can be spread easily among people, the impact would be horrific.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, even a "medium-level" pandemic in the United States could infect about one-third of the population and cause up to 200,000 deaths.

If that same infection rate were applied globally, roughly 2 billion people would fall ill; assuming a mortality rate of just 1% (down from the current 67%), that translates to 20 million fatalities.

The World Health Organization puts the minimum fatality range for a pandemic at between 2 million and 7 million people.

It may seem crass to even think about the investment implications of a tragedy that could kill 6,000 times more people than died on Sept. 11.

Clearly, any financial implications pale in comparison to the unfathomable human cost. Yet investors should also consider what could happen to their holdings if the unthinkable occurs.

History offers only limited guidance on the financial impact of pandemics, in part because the global economy is more inter-dependent today than ever before. It is also difficult to separate the effects of pandemics from those of the normal business cycle.

Still, the U.S. was in recession during virtually the entire 1918-'19 "Spanish flu" pandemic that killed 500,000 Americans and 50 million people worldwide.

Growth also turned negative amid the 1957-'58 "Asian flu" outbreak that caused 70,000 American casualties. And while the economy was still expanding during most of the "Hong Kong" flu outbreak of 1968-'69, recession did set in shortly after 34,000 Americans had died.

The economic implications of an avian flu pandemic next winter could be much worse.

The United States and China are carrying the global economy on their collective shoulders.

Stocks are not cheap, consumers are in debt and governments have little monetary or fiscal ammunition available to ease the pain.

How bad could it get? Lop 30% off the average stock price and consider it a down payment.

Maybe we'll get lucky and the threat of a new influenza pandemic will dissipate.

Drug companies are working on a vaccine (don't hold your breath) and there is still the possibility that the virus won't mutate or that anti-viral medications will prove effective.

So far, few investors have taken notice of the dangers the avian flu represents. In the context of an already weakening global economy, that could turn out to be an expensive oversight.




From the May 2, 2005, editions of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

 

[LMonty911]

Posted on Thu, May. 05, 2005

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/living/health/11565585.htm

To spur action on killer flu, a dire 'call to arms'

By Marian Uhlman
Inquirer Staff Writer

Consider this scenario: A lethal new flu virus emerges to claim millions of lives and sicken millions more. Many patients can't get ventilators or drugs because of an international shortage.

Hospitals are so packed that schools turn gymnasiums into makeshift wards. Bodies pile up because people are dying faster than they can be buried. Food is scarce. The worldwide economy is paralyzed.

Sound far-fetched? It's all too plausible, says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

The United States is poorly prepared to confront a potential influenza pandemic that some experts believe could be brewing in Southeast Asia, Osterholm writes in today's issue of the New England Journal of Medicine, which commissioned the piece.

The country could lessen the magnitude of a pandemic if it acts now, Osterholm said. He called for a "worldwide influenza Manhattan Project" to produce and deliver a vaccine. And the public, industry and government all need to intensify planning and help the health system avoid a disaster, he asserted.

"I am not trying to scare people out of their wits," said Osterholm, a former bioterrorism special adviser to the current Bush administration. "I am trying to scare them into their wits."

His ominous tone follows months of escalating alarm from global officials that the avian flu virus circulating in Asia could create a medical catastrophe.

Even if the world escapes a pandemic now, experts say, it is only a matter of time before some flu strain causes mass death.

"It is a very high-profile call to arms," said Neil Fishman, director of infection control for the University of Pennsylvania Health System. "We are unprepared."

Osterholm - Minnesota's state epidemiologist for 16 years - has a good record on prognostications. He predicted that a mosquito-borne illness would arise before West Nile did. And he warned about bioterrorism before anthrax turned up in letters.

Osterholm said a flu pandemic was inevitable - part of a cycle that has been repeated 10 times in the last 300 years.

"It is like hurricanes if you live on the Gulf Coast," he said.

World health officials now are closely monitoring the H5N1 avian flu virus, which experts worry could mutate and spread easily. So far, the H5N1 strain mainly has infected people in Southeast Asia through direct contact with chickens and birds.

Compared with typical flu viruses that cause about 36,000 deaths a year in this country, H5N1 is potentially more serious because it would be new and people would have no immunity.

An H5N1 pandemic "could rival those of 1918, when more than half the deaths occurred among largely healthy people between 18 and 40 years of age," Osterholm wrote.

Even an all-out effort to fight a pandemic would likely fall short in the near term because of a lack of medical supplies, he wrote. For example, the United States would lack enough mechanical ventilators to treat the flu's victims. And a vaccine for a new strain would take at least six months to develop.

Detailed plans also need to be developed by every school board, business and state legislature.

"I don't think we can wholesale prevent a pandemic," said Eddy A. Bresnitz, New Jersey's state epidemiologist. But "we can prepare ourselves better to mitigate the impact."

Here are some problem areas:

VACCINES

Vaccines likely would be in short supply and only a fraction of the population would be inoculated, Osterholm said.

It's also unclear who would be first in line: the old or the young? Should medical workers and police officers be first?

Making flu vaccine today is antiquated and still uses chicken eggs in the manufacturing process. Osterholm said the goal should be developing a vaccine in cell-based cultures that would protect against all types of influenza.

Bruce Gellin, director of the National Vaccine Program Office, said the United States awarded a $97 million contract to Pennsylvania-based sanofi pasteur to hasten development of a cell-culture flu vaccine.

The National Institutes of Health this spring started testing a vaccine against H5N1.

"There is a lot more to do," Gellin said. "I actually think a lot has happened."

ANTIVIRALS

These drugs will likely also be in short supply. Of the available antivirals, Tamiflu - the generic is oseltamivir - appears to be the only one effective in treating the avian flu strain now circulating in Asia, Fishman said.

But the United States is far behind other nations in stockpiling antivirals.

The federal government last year bought 2.3 million flu treatments to stockpile from the drug's maker, Roche. By comparison, the United Kingdom has requested 14.6 million treatment courses to cover 25 percent of its population, he said. France has asked for 13 million doses to treat 20 percent of its citizens.

Roche is planning to start producing Tamiflu in this country this fall, a Roche spokesman said.

SURGE CAPACITY

Everything from face masks to hospital beds will be hard to get. "People shouldn't expect the public-health knights to ride in on white horses from the state or federal level," said New Jersey's Bresnitz.

Many efforts must be spearheaded locally, he said, such as ensuring that people have enough to eat.

Hospitals will be overwhelmed. "We don't have enough beds in the Delaware Valley," said John J. Kelly, chief medical officer at Abington Memorial Hospital. "The desire to reduce health-care costs has taken the fat and the meat. We are now down to the bone."

 

[LilRose8]

Is it possible the TBTB across the world have already DECIDED that the population needs culling? Just a thought........

 

[LMonty911]

well, I have no idea, and tend not to go for hte conspiracy thing- and this is serious enough without it LilRose. but personally, whatever the cause, I prefer avoiding to be the one culled, and hope y'all feel the same way.

 

[LMonty911]

bump for the evening crowd- i have a hard time understanding why this issue doesnt generate more conversation here!

 

[BUBBAHOTEPT]

All right, so name the preps specifically that we need to put up this Summer.................. I'll read tomorrow...............

 

[LilRose8]

Tamiflu, general cold medicines, meds for fevers and aches ( tylenol for kids and aspirin or ibuprofen for adults), cough meds, antihystamines, cough suppressants, lots and lots of fluids, Emergen-c or Airborne, Kleenex, masks, gloves, hand washing equiment available in the sick room or the adjacent bathroom, vitamins and extra vit C, thermometer, rubbing alchohol, lots of washclothes to bathe a person with, basins, plenty of warm water from a faucet and antibacterial soap ( although it is the scrubbing action that does most of the work), orange wood sticks and alchohol to clean under the nails. Did I leave anything out?

Edited to add........plenty of plastic garbage bags to throw kleenex and other biohazard waste in. CLose bags with gloves on. Remove gloves and place bag in a second bag and seal before removing from the affected area. Now, wash your hands again before leaving the sick room......after closing the door use antibacterial gel on hands.

 

[Unique]

Bubbahotept lives in St. Augustine Fl!

It would be hard to prep in the summer for the flu if you lived there. Just let me be on the beach!

Who needs reality?

 

[LilRose8]

bump for night crew

 

[optimistic pessimist]

Add in homeopathic remedies to list: especially Gelsenium, Eupatorium (boneset)- good for aches and fever in flu! Good time to start putting together a good homeopathic kit and learning about remedies. Last time my family had the flu, these remedies worked where other traditional over the counter stuff failed, especially for vertigo, nausea, aching and fever. Worth the investment. Made my spouse a believer after a bad bout of the flu - specifically severe achiness was significantly relieved within minutes where tylenol failed.

 

[LilRose8]

Optimisitic Pessimist...isn't there a premade homeopathic flu remedy? Occilum something? I have heard that works really well. I am a firm believer in homeopathic remedies.....they work.

 

[Phil Ca]

My personal testimony is this: Last sunday we were to go with our son to return his daughter to his ex. I was not feeling well and begged off and went to bed. That evening I started having the GI's and major vomiting at the same time. Lucky me I was in the bathroom at the time. I got up at 0300 and went to sit in the living room. I felt a need to vomit and grabbed the trashcan (with liner) and heaved again.

I ended up in the clinic of KPMC on Monday, and after the exam ended up vomiting in the trash can in the examining room. I was sent over to the Urgent Care section a few yards away and was given two liters of IV, one with phenergan. I had to be pushed around from one place to another for blood and urine tests and then to the van.

On Tuesday the doctor asked me to return for a follow up and after an exam he put me on two more liters and I crashed again. Now after a couple of more days I think I will live. It sure was a wake-up call let me tell you. I will be watching my intake of food more closely and a bucnh of other stuff.

My wife said that its past my new bed time so gotta go.

 

[RC]

Bump.

A few years ago, I had the pleasure of attending a lecture by Dr. Osterholm. IMHO, he is one of the few non-DGI's in the public policy arena. Everyone should read this article.