WAR 06/28 to 07/05 ***The***Perfect***Storm***

[The Flying Dutchman]

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6/20 to 6/27 ***The***Perfect***Storm***​

06/28/11, 5:16 PM

Flotilla for War or Peace? Charges of Plot to Kill

by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/145257​

A public relations clash has broken out over the planned flotilla to Hamas-controlled Gaza. Activists charge that Israel sabotaged a boat at a Greek port and deny IDF accusations that they plan to kill soldiers.

The flotilla, already scaled down following Turkey and Cyprus’ refusal to cooperate, hoped to set sail from Greece Tuesday, but Voice of Israel government radio said it will be delayed at least several days. One boat is stuck in port because of a broken propeller, and activists blamed Israel for the damage, calling it sabotage.

Israel is in the midst of massive diplomatic and information campaign to scuttle the planned attempt to break the maritime embargo, imposed to hamper Hamas’ efforts to smuggle more weapons into Gaza. The government and military have emphasized that all of the goods and merchandise activists want to bring to Gaza can easily enter the region overland via Egypt or Israeli overland crossings.

Flotilla activists denied on Tuesday reports that they intend to kill soldiers, using chemical weapons. IDF spokeswoman Lieutenant Colonel Avital Leibovitz asserted, "There are radical elements on board the American boat who have said they want to kill Israeli soldiers. We also know that one of the boats is carrying dangerous incendiary chemicals that these human rights militants want to use against Israeli soldiers.”

Flotilla activist Dror Feiler told Army Radio that the charges of plots to kill are excuses for the IDF to justify violence.

Last year’s flotilla of six ships was marked by a clash on the Mavi Marmara boat, charted by Turkish IHH terror activists, nine of whom were killed by Navy commandoes, who were brutally clubbed, shot at and kidnapped by IHH members until the Navy was able to overcome the attack.

Most of the travelers on the other five boats were an assortment of doves who were unaware that the IHH, declared a terrorist group in some European quarters, brought chain saws aboard in order to cut off metal bars from the ship and used them to attack Navy commandos, who boarded the Mavi Mamara virtually unarmed.

They also were unaware that the same ship, contrary to announced intentions, was not carrying any aid to Gaza, as was discovered after the Navy guided it to port in Israel.

Nonetheless, Feiler said that there cannot possible be any violence from the activists because the passengers have signed a pledge of non-violence. On the other hand, IHH members, whose Mavi Mamara ship was blocked by Turkish officials from leaving port, are planning to join the flotilla on other ships.

"The moderate elements who were planning to join the flotilla... know that for everyone who wants to help people in Gaza, that there is a legal way to do it," Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Tuesday.

"They want to purposely create a provocation, they are looking for a confrontation, they are looking for blood; they are looking for many images on the TV screens” he said. "No one doubts the intention of those people... But I am sure we will cope with them."






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Flotilla activists seek "blood" - Israeli FM​

By Ori Lewis | Reuters – 15 minutes ago.. .
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/flotilla-activists-seek-blood-israeli-fm-142359176.html​

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Tuesday participants in an aid flotilla planning to challenge an Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip were seeking "confrontation and blood."

Pro-Palestinian activists have said around a dozen ships carrying aid to Gaza, territory controlled by Hamas Islamists, could depart from European ports in the coming days.

A year ago, nine Turkish activists, including a dual U.S.-Turkish national, were killed in clashes with Israeli soldiers who raided a Gaza-bound convoy in the eastern Mediterranean.

Israel has said it will prevent the new flotilla from reaching the coastal enclave, and Lieberman repeated its offer to the activists to deliver aid via the Israeli port of Ashdod or through Egypt or the United Nations.

"They are clearly there to create a provocation, looking for confrontation and blood and for many pictures on television screens," Lieberman told Israel Radio, adding that there was a "hard core of terror activists" among the participants.

On their website, U.S. participants in the flotilla said their intentions were peaceful and they would set sail "without weapons protection or threat of force."

Greek flotilla organisers said the propeller of a Greek passenger boat that was supposed to be part of the convoy had been sabotaged while docked near Athens. Greeks, Norwegians and Swedes were to have travelled on board.

"This is obviously the work of secret services and special forces," the statement from the organisers said, without disclosing whether the vessel was fit to sail.

BLOCKADE

At a news conference in Athens on Monday, a group of some 400 activists that included European MPs, a former CIA analyst and a 75-year Holocaust survivor, professors and authors complained that Greece was bowing to pressure from Israel and using bureaucratic tactics to try to block their departure.

Israel says its blockade of the Gaza Strip is aimed at stopping weaponry from reaching Hamas, which is shunned by the West because of its refusal to recognise the Jewish state, renounce violence and accept existing peace deals.

Palestinians say the blockade is illegal and is helping to strangle Gaza's underdeveloped economy.

On Monday, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak urged governments not to assist the flotilla and said he had ordered the army to stop the vessels if needed.

The United States has supported the Gaza naval blockade and warned activists last week that the voyage would be irresponsible and dangerous.

Lieberman said Israeli leaders and officials had held "hundreds, perhaps thousands of discussions at various levels" with foreign governments to persuade them to urge their citizens not to join the flotilla.

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said the flotilla plan was a "bad idea that can only exacerbate tensions and we don't need more reasons for conflict at the moment." There were reports of two French ships taking part, he said.

"We don't have the legal recourse to stop boats leaving, but with others including the U.N. secretary general we have made clear we are against this," he told reporters in Paris.

An Israeli military source said Israel had information that some activists were planning to attack soldiers with acid and lethal chemical agents if they boarded the ships.

Dror Feiler, an Israeli participant in the flotilla, denied the allegation in an interview with Israeli Army Radio and said all of the passengers had signed a pledge of non-violence.






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War games launched in Iran (01:02) Report​

By Parisa Hafezi
TEHRAN | Tue Jun 28, 2011 3:03pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/...c=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=401​

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Revolutionary Guards tested 14 missiles on Tuesday, the second day of war games intended as a show of strength towards the Islamic Republic's enemies Israel and the United States.

The Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles, with a maximum range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), were fired simultaneously at a single target, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division, emphasised Iran's preparedness to strike Israel and U.S. interests in the event of any attack on the Islamic Republic.

"The range of our missiles has been designed based on American bases in the region as well as the Zionist regime," Hajizadeh told the semi-official Fars news agency.

The United States and Israel have said they do not rule out military strikes on Iran if diplomatic means fail to stop it developing nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear programme is geared to producing electricity, not atom bombs.

IRNA said the Guards fired nine Zelzal missiles, two Shahab-1s, two Shahab-2s and one upgraded Shahab-3 missile. Iranian officials have previously announced that the Shahab 3 can reach targets up to 2,000 km away, putting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf within reach.

A long-time enemy of the United States, Iran has been emboldened by what it perceives as U.S. military defeats in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan. Both countries are still home to large U.S. troop numbers and Washington has other bases in the Gulf that Iran could choose to target.

"The Americans have reduced our labours," Hajizadeh told Fars. "Their military bases in the region are in a range of 130, 250 and maximum 700 km in Afghanistan which we can hit with these missiles."

Hossein Salami, deputy commander of the Guards, said: "We still have our fingers on the trigger, but the number of the triggers have increased."

The "Great Prophet 6" war games, to be carried out on land and sea, are a "message of peace and friendship to countries of the region," Hajizadeh said on Monday.

Asked whether Iranian missiles were a threat to Europe, Hajizadeh told IRNA that while Iran had the technological capacity to build longer-range missiles, the 2,000-km range had been chosen precisely with Israel and U.S. bases in mind.

"Except America and the Zionist regime, we do not feel a threat from any other country," he said.

The Guards also unveiled new underground ballistic missile silos which they said would reduce launch times as missiles would not need to be moved prior to being launched.

"The silos are a part of the swift reaction unit of the missile brigade, missiles are stored vertically, ready to be launched against pre-determined targets," Fars quoted Hajizadeh as saying.

"SOURCE OF DELIGHT"

Endorsing the Islamic state's military might, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Iran's military capability was for purely defensive purposes but is happy if its show of strength rattles the West.

"The westerners' concern is a source of delight for us, because we will not allow any country to have a greedy approach towards our country's interests and territorial integrity," Mehmanparast said.

"If all the regional states had the highest defensive capability the Zionist regime would have never allowed itself to carry out an act of aggression."

Mehmanparast also urged Russia to make good on a delivery of S-300 missiles to Iran.

"This missile system is for defensive purposes, therefore, it is not included in the illegal sanctions ... We are expecting Russia to follow up the bilateral commitments more seriously."

Moscow unilaterally suspended the delivery of the S-300s after the United States and Israel expressed concern that Iran could use the S-300s to shield its nuclear facilities which they suspect are part of an atomic bomb programme.

Iran is at loggerheads with major powers over its escalating uranium enrichment work, which the West suspects may be intended to ultimately yield atomic bomb. Tehran denies this, saying its is refining uranium only for electricity.





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Gaza flotilla ship 'sabotaged by divers'​

Activists say Swedish ship due to join attempt to break Israel's blockade of Gaza has been damaged in Greek port.

Dahr Jamail Last Modified: 28 Jun 2011 13:27
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011628101331334709.html​

A Swedish ship due to join an upcoming Gaza-bound aid flotilla has been sabotaged in the Greek port of Piraeus, organisers say.

In a statement, they said "hostile divers had destroyed the propeller house and cut the propeller shaft" of the vessel Juliano on Monday.

The ship is part of the 10-vessel Freedom Flotilla II that is expected to set sail from Greece and elsewhere for the Gaza Strip in the coming days in a bid to break Israel's blockade of the Palestinian territory.

About 350 pro-Palestinian activists from 22 countries are likely to participate.

Israel insists the latest flotilla is a "dangerous provocation" and has vowed to intercept it.

Determined organisers

Organisers of the flotilla, however, remain defiant and said the Juliano would be ready to sail within one or two days after being repaired. They said they had documented the sabotage with their own camera-equipped divers.

"We are sad that people are doing such things but we are determined to continue to Gaza," Dror Feiler, one of the organisers, told Al Jazeera from aboard the Juliano.

"We will not be frightened by Israel, and we are going to continue. Our friends from all around the world are with us, and we are all going to Gaza."

Mattias Gardell, a spokesperson for Ship to Gaza Sweden, also condemned the act of sabotage.

"It's one thing for a foreign power to press the Greek government to delay our voyage with red tape. It is quite another thing for enemy agents to operate on Greek territory.

"It is high time for the international community to put their foot down and say: Enough!"

Israeli allegation

Israeli newspaper Haaretz quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that "radical elements" among the flotilla activists had stated an intention to "spill the blood of Israeli soldiers".

According to Tel Aviv daily Yedioth Aharonoth, military sources said participants of the flotilla were planning to pour chemicals, such as sulfur, on Israeli soldiers.

But according to activist Feiler, the goal of the flotilla is to "come in peace" to Gaza.

"We are shocked by the Israeli actions, and their propaganda that we have weapons and acid and are going to attack Israeli soldiers, when we are all dedicated to peace," Feiler said. "We will not throw objects or attack them in any way."

The flotilla comes a year after another aid shipment was intercepted by Israeli commandos. At least nine activists were killed when commandos stormed Mavi Marmara, the Turkish-owned lead aid ship.

Besides the Juliano - named after Juliano Mer-Khamis, the Arab-Israeli actor, director and political activist who was shot dead in the West Bank town of Jenin in April - boats from Greece, France, Italy and Spain are also among those joining Freedom Flotilla II. Two cargo vessels will carry medicines, a fully equipped ambulance car, and cement.

A number of journalists are among those taking part in the bid to break Israel's five-year naval blockade on the Gaza Strip, which is home to 1.5 million Palestinians.

Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general, and several international leaders have urged the flotilla not to set sail, and the US has warned its nationals not to join the attempt to break the embargo.

The border has remained largely shut since June 2006, when Israel imposed a tight blockade on the coastal territory after Palestinian fighters snatched Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who is still being held.

The UN has called the blockade illegal and repeatedly demanded it be lifted. A ban on civilian goods and foodstuffs was eased last year but many restrictions remain in place.





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Is Iran killing U.S. soldiers in Iraq?

Posted By Robert Zeliger
Tuesday, June 28, 2011 - 10:10 AM Share
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/28/is_iran_killing_us_soldiers_in_iraq​

June has been the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in Iraq since May, 2009 -- with 11 deaths, including two soldiers killed Sunday in northern Iraq. The American combat mission officially ended in August 2010, and the 45,000 U.S. forces that are still there -- ostensibly in an advisory and training capacity -- are supposed to stick to their bases and not take part in combat missions without the Iraqi government's permission. So, what's behind the jump in deaths?

Beyond the fact that the security situation is still tenuous, U.S. soldiers are likely being targeted more now because there is talk that Iraqi and American officials will try to keep additional troops in the country past the December deadline to pull all U.S. forces out, according to Feisal Istrabadi, a former Iraqi diplomat to the United Nations who now teaches law at Indiana University. A coalition of militant groups and outside actors is strongly opposed to that and are using violence to send a message to Washington.

"That's the primary driver," said Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who tracks Iraqi security issues closely. "The Iranians and Sadrists are taking it very seriously."

The Sadrists are a sectarian militia affiliated with hard-line cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who adamantly opposes the U.S. presence.

In 2008, the United States and Iraq agreed that all American forces would leave the country by the end of this year. The U.S. is open to keeping troops beyond that date, but only if Iraq asks, according to the Associated Press.

And it's not clear yet that the Iraqis will. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is under significant pressure from political allies, including Sadr, whose backing last year allowed him to win a second term as prime minister.

According to the New York Times, Sadr has said that unless the United States fully withdraws its troops by the end of the year, he will reactivate his Mahdi Army, which was responsible for much of the violence against U.S. troops earlier in the war but was formally disbanded in 2008.

Iran also opposes an extension, said Istrabadi. He said various groups that don't necessarily completely agree with each other are working together. "It's a situation where the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Knights said that when talk of an agreement heated up beginning in the spring, attacks on U.S. soldiers and personnel also increased -- including attacks on U.S. bases, with more sophisticated weaponry and an increased quality in the attacks, which Knights said indicates Iranian backing.

"They raised their game, so to speak," Knights said. "They brought in more experienced operators and are supporting Shiite militants in southern Iraq. The result has been better lethality."

The message, Knights said, is "Don't stay. Reconsider."

"They think the U.S. is casualty-adverse."





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Saudi Arabia Using Oil as an Economic Weapon Against Iran

Written by Energy Digital
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 12:40
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Using-Oil-as-an-Economic-Weapon-Against-Iran.html​

Saudi Arabia fears Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, and may flood the market with its oil reserves to bankrupt Tehran

Saudi Arabia and Iran have been in a bitter dispute over the last several weeks. Iran successfully blocked an effort by OPEC nations to release excess oil reserves into the market to ease high prices and stabilize the world economy. In response, Saudi Arabia decided to act against OPEC and release its own reserves. In no uncertain terms, a bitter feud is brewing between the two oil-rich nations, and Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal has stated that the country is in such fear of what may happen if Iran succeeds in attaining nuclear weapons capabilities, that it is considering flooding the market with oil to bankrupt Iran’s government and halt nuclear ambitions.

In a meeting with U.S. and British servicemen at a U.K. airbase, the prince claimed that Saudi Arabia does not want Tehran to attain nuclear weapons, to the extent that the Saudis are willing to completely open their oil reserves to bankrupt Iran. “We could almost instantly replace all of Iran’s oil production,” stated the prince. This would equate to roughly 4 million barrels per day.

However, if such an action were to occur, there would of course need to be a naval blockade of Iran’s fleet of oil tankers, which Iran would inevitably view as an act of war. However, this seems like an unlikely and rather dangerous scenario. What is more likely to occur is a continued increase in supply coming from Saudi Arabia despite OPEC’s disapproval. The effect will be a prolonged cut into Tehran’s oil profits.

However, there is still debate whether or not Iran’s nuclear ambitions are even aimed at nuclear weapons development. An inspection by the IAEA just months ago revealed no signs of weapons development at any of Iran’s proposed nuclear energy facilities, and the country continually claims that its nuclear program is peaceful in nature. It may be foolish to back Iran into an oil-induced war just to find out in the end—as was the case in the U.S. invasion of Iraq—that there are no nuclear weapons.

By. John Shimkus






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Iran missiles hidden deep underground

William Broad
June 29, 2011 .
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/iran-missiles-hidden-deep-underground-20110628-1gp04.html​

IRAN has unveiled silos that would make its missiles less vulnerable to attack, the country's latest show of force in the long stand-off with the West over its nuclear program.

State television broadcast images of silos deep underground, claiming they held medium- and long-range missiles. Silos are considered more difficult to destroy than surface installations and Iran hailed them as a defensive asset meant to thwart an attacker.

Colonel Asghar Qelichkhani said the silos ''function as a swift-reaction unit''. State TV quoted him as saying the missiles were permanently in the vertical position and ''ready to hit the predetermined targets''.

Advertisement: Story continues below

They were presented as Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards began 10 days of military exercises.

Yesterday they test-fired 14 missiles, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said. The missiles included nine of the Zelzal type, two Shahab-1s, two Shahab-2s and one Shahab-3 in tests marking the second phase of what Tehran is calling the ''Great Prophet Six'' war game.

Western powers have long cited evidence that Iran was investigating the design of nuclear warheads for its missiles. But Tehran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Iran's first nuclear power plant is set to start up in August, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said.

''The project has been completed and everything has been ironed out,'' the state RIA Novosti news agency quoted him saying.

Iran says it needs the plant to meet growing demand for electricity. But the plant's construction has been strongly opposed by Israel amid fears that it forms a part of Iran's suspected nuclear weapons development program.

The plant's connection to the electricity grid had been scheduled for late last year but has since been postponed due to technical faults, including that caused by suspected espionage by Israel and the US using the Stuxnet virus.

Last year the International Institute for Strategic Studies, an arms analysis group in London, reported ''emerging evidence'' of Iranian silos that could fire missiles at Iraq, Israel, Turkey and countries throughout the Persian Gulf.

It said the most logical reason for building silos was ''to prepare to field larger missiles''.

The state TV report showed footage of an underground launching pad for what it called the Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of about 2000 kilometres. The report also showed a large metal roof opening atop the silo to allow the firing of the missile.

Israel has accused Tehran of receiving assistance from North Korea in building underground missile sites. But Colonel Qelichkhani said the silos were based on Iranian technology.


Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wor...underground-20110628-1gp04.html#ixzz1QaDBRNj7




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Iranian Military Strategy to any Foreign Assault

Ali Omidi - 6/28/2011
http://www.globalpolitician.com/26943-iran-military-strategy-defense​

Iran has started the 10 days of war games that began on Monday (June 27, 2011) under the rubrics of “Great Prophet 6. At the same time, Iran for the first time unveiled underground ballistic missile silos in a warning to the likely enemies of its ability to protect its missiles and secretly store them in hidden locations throughout the country.

Iranian State TV aired footage of several military officers touring to an underground silo that have been equipped to Shahab 3 ballistic missile. The Shahab 3 has a range of around 2,000 kilometers, putting Israel and the US military bases around Iran within its reach. The unveiling of underground missile silos means that Iran has been dispersing its missiles in silos, likely scattered throughout the country.

The Iranians are trying to show to the likely enemies that their missiles are protected even if the country is attacked. Missile attack is the core of Iranian military strategy. It means that Iran pointed the missiles to its likely targets; so in any assault, Iran will counterattack to its enemies by firing the underground missiles.

What would be Iranian other deterrence policy toward any foreign attack?
First of all, the main military institution for any the US assault against Iran has been delegated to the Islamic Guards Corps. This institution has designed multi-level military reactions against foreign assault:

1. Regional Level; Iranian strategists believe that the Iraqi experience has given them good lesson. Saddam by just limiting the combat field inside Iraq gave to the enemy military privilege. If Iran could expand the combat field, it would be very hard for the US to promote its military strategy easily. So, Iran would attack directly or indirectly (by proxy wars) against the US military bases in the region and Israel. Since, any the US attack means "the death and life issue"(or zero-sum game), Iran would use even the elements such as Al-Qaedeh and Taliban as expedient tactics which now are rouge elements in Iranian calculus.

The controversial remarks of Iranian president on Israel and the issues such as holocaust have attracted the sympathy of Middle East peoples. So the Jihadi groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas will use their maximum potential in counter attacking; because these groups consider any the US military strike against Iran as "death and life issue" for themselves too.

2. Domestic Level; In this leve,l two policies would be taken simultaneously:

1. Planning of asymmetrical war by pulling the enemy inside Iran. Iranian topography (unlike Iraq) would be difficult for blitz war. So, Iran by prolongation of war would increase the enemy losses.

2. Removing the fifth column. The US would calculate on public uprising in favor the US military strike (as in Iraq happened).So, the Iranian authority is very alert in this issue and has destroyed and will remove any alternative for transitional period. It means that, Iranian authority would not tolerate any opposition as alternative for the transitional period. It will make difficult the horizon of military success in Iran.

3. Non-conventional instruments: It has been proved that democracies such the US are vulnerable to life loss and this is their Achilles point. On the contrary, this is a strong point of the Middle East countries. Iran will try by unconventional instruments such as suicide attack to increase the military expenses of any likely enemy. Iran would block by any means the Hormuz Strait and by this increase the expenses of military adventure against Iran. In this regard, Iran has established a Suicide Battalion, to signal to the likely enemy that this country has prepared itself to sustain infinite loss and resist infinitely.

Concluding point is that, any surgical conventional operation against Iran will easily escalate to all-out war and this issue complicates the horizon of stopping Iran in its nuclear activities. So, diplomacy is the best policy for both relevant sides to overcome on their disagreements.






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Iran 'will not make longer-range missiles as Israel is already in reach'

Associated Press
guardian.co.uk
Tuesday 28 June 2011 12.53 BST
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/28/iran-longer-range-missiles-israel​

A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander has claimed his country can produce even longer range missiles than those already in its arsenal, but will not because Israel and US bases in the Gulf are already within its reach.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the guards' aerospace force, made the remarks as Iran conducts 10 days of war games, its latest show of military force amid a standoff with the west over the country's nuclear programme.

Hajizadeh said the guards' arsenal already included missiles with a range of about 1,250 miles (2,000km) – putting Israel, US bases in the Gulf and parts of south-eastern and eastern Europe within Iran's reach.

The missiles, he said, were designed for Israeli and US targets. Iran's known missiles of such range are the Shahab-3 and the Sajjil. Iran considers Israel and the US its main enemies.

"There is no threat from any country to us other than the US and the Zionist regime," Hajizadeh was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency. "The range of our missiles has been designed on the basis of the distance to the Zionist regime and the US bases in the Persian Gulf region."

Hajizadeh said Iran "possesses the technology" but would not manufacture missiles with a range of more than 1,250 miles. He gave no details, but said: "We have no intention to produce such missiles."

In Israel, a foreign ministry spokesman, Yigal Palmor, denounced Hajizadeh's remarks.

"This new Iranian bragging demonstrates once again the aggressive policies of the ayatollahs' regime," Palmor said. "Not that we had any doubts prior to this statement. But this renewed threat makes it obvious why Iran is the number one threat to this whole region and beyond."

Western intelligence reports say Iran wants to produce intercontinental missiles with a range of up to 3,750 miles, a claim Iran has denied.

Hajizadeh said some US bases in Iraq and Afghanistan were as close as 75 miles from Iran's borders and could easily be hit by Iran in case of an attack.

The powerful Revolutionary Guards, which is in charge of Iran's missile programme, kicked off the war games on Monday by unveiling smart missile silos for the first time, claiming that medium- and long-range missiles stored in them were ready to launch if Iran was attacked.

The silos are widely viewed as a strategic asset for Iran in the event of a US or Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.

As part of the exercise, Iran fired 14 missiles, including Shahab-1, Shahab-2, Shahab-3 and Zelzal missiles, on Tuesday.

Iran remains locked in a standoff with the west over its nuclear programme, which the US and its allies suspect is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iran rejects the charges, and says the programme is only for peaceful purposes.





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Yet another Middle East crisis?

June 28, 2011 2:19 pm by Roula Khalaf .
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/06/yet-another-middle-east-crisis/#axzz1QaGBg94X​

I’m told that the UN-backed special tribunal for Lebanon will, within days, hand down indictments over the 2005 killing of former premier Rafiq Hariri. Pan-Arab papers have been speculating about this. Diplomatic sources say the speculation is justified.

This is an explosive case that is being closely watched all over the region.

You might recall that the Hariri assassination, which his supporters had blamed on Syria, provoked mass protests in Lebanon and brought an end to 30 years of Syrian military control. After initial leaks suggested the involvement of Syrian officials, the investigation took another curious turn.

Last summer, Hizbollah, the Shia militant group that is backed by Syria and Iran, said it expected some of its members to be indicted. Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah chief, then went on a campaign to discredit the tribunal, which he sees as an Israeli-US conspiracy, and try to prevent the indictments from coming out.

The conflict over the tribunal then brought down the government led by Hariri’s son Saad who would not agree to denounce the international court.
Now Lebanon has a new government packed with Hizbollah allies. But the party has other problems – its friends in Syria are facing a popular uprising that is threatening the regime. And the tribunal has not gone away.

No one expects any Hizbollah members to be arrested, should they be indicted, which puts Lebanon in a tricky situation vis-a-vis the UN Security Council which created the tribunal.

Most worrying in the short term is that the accusations of the killing a Sunni leader will inflame sectarian tensions in Lebanon.

Diplomats say there are two key questions that will determine the level of tension: first, whether Hizbollah will now try to play down the whole affair or take a more combative position, and second whether the indictments touch Syrian officials. Strangely, Mr Nasrallah last week said two members of the group had confessed to being CIA spies, recruited recently. Maybe anyone indicted in the Hariri case will conveniently also turn out to be a spy.







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Lebanon prepares for Hariri court indictment

[28.06.2011 17:35]
http://en.trend.az/regions/met/arabicr/1897857.html​

Lebanon's political and media spheres await the release of long-awaited indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is probing the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Sunni former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Xinhua reported.

As-Safir newspaper, which is close to the March 8 alliance led by Shi'ite armed group Hezbollah, said in its front page story that Lebanon was affected by a flow of leaks about release of the indictments in Hariri's assassination.

The UN-backed court is widely expected to implicate Hezbollah in the massive assassination that claimed the lives of Hariri and 22 other people, arousing fears of Sunni-Shi'ite strife in the small eastern Mediterranean country. Hezbollah rejected the accusation and slammed the court as being politicized.

A spokesperson for the Netherlands-based tribunal told Lebanon' s English-language newspaper The Daily Star that the indictment was being worked upon and would be issued independent from events in Lebanon.

Lebanon's newly announced government, which is headed by telecom tycoon Najib Mikati and dominated by the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, is still debating how to deal with the controversial STL clause in its policy statement.

In a telephone call with the Al-Mustaqbal newspaper, which is owned by Hariri's son former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Lebanon's State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza denied receiving anything related to the STL indictments, stressing that in line with the agreement with the STL, Lebanon is the first to receive a copy of the verdict.

Mirza had met Monday with Secretary General of the Lebanese Premiership Suheil Bouji, to inform him of the procedures the government should take once the STL indictments are released.

Saudi dailies Ash-Sharq al-Awsat and Al-Hayat published reports on Monday, suggesting that the STL indictments are due in the next couple of days.

Citing well-informed sources, Ash-Sharq al-Awsat said that the indictment would name five Hezbollah members, confirming earlier report that the divisive court was planning to point the finger at members of Hezbollah.







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06/28/11, 3:24 PM


Lebanese MP: Hizbullah Openly Transporting Arms from Syria


by Aryeh Ben Hayim
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/145254​

Lebanaese MP Antoine Saad, an ally of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and an opponent of the current Hizbullah dominated government, said Tuesday that Hizbullah is publicly relocating its weapons from Syria to Lebanon due to the current crisis in Syria.



Saad told Al-Mustaqbal newspaper that “the overland transfer is taking place day and night and without any control,” and that the weapons are being dispersed to Hizbullah strongholds in South Lebanon, Baalbeck, Hermel and the terrorist organization's bastions in the southern suburbs of Beirut.



“These weapons are to be used against Israel in the future, so Hizbullah needs ammunition to be able to resist in a long term war,” added Saad.



While the former March 14 Alliance led by Saad Hariri is opposed to Israel it considers Syria and Hizbullah to be the major threats to Lebanon. While in power the Alliance criticized Hizbullah for triggering a war with Israel that brought destruction to Lebanon without having consulted the democratically elected leadership.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Lebanese tribunal judges have left country, source says

Tuesday, June 28, 2011
BEIRUT - Reuters
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n....dges-have-left-country-source-says-2011-06-28​

Lebanese officials said on Monday they expected a U.N.-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri to issue indictments soon.

The long-awaited indictments are expected to accuse members of Shiite group Hezbollah of involvement in the killing and have already triggered a political crisis which brought down the government of al-Hariri's son, Saad al-Hariri, in January.

Hezbollah, which denies any role in the 2005 assassination, and its allies resigned from Hariri's unity government just days before the tribunal prosecutor filed his indictments to a pre-trial judge on Jan. 17.

The indictments, twice amended since then, have remained secret while the pre-trial judge assessed whether there was enough evidence to proceed with a trial.

A spokesman for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, or STL, declined to comment on reports in two pan-Arab newspapers that the indictments would be issued within two days. One of them, Asharq al-Awsat, said five Hezbollah members would be indicted.

"The STL has no comment to make about the content of the indictment," spokesman Marten Youssef said. "The integrity of the STL proceedings requires that legal considerations alone determine if and when the tribunal will make any announcement about the completion of the review process."

Lebanese officials said they expected the indictments to be issued this week or next, but gave no details.

An official source said Lebanese judges who are part of the tribunal had left Lebanon. Local media said this could be a precautionary move to ensure their safety when the indictments were issued.

Al-Hariri was killed by a huge truck bomb, triggering international condemnation that forced neighboring Syria to end a 29-year military presence in Lebanon.

Six months after the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination, four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals were arrested at the request of the U.N. investigator. A report delivered to the U.N. Security Council initial findings implicated high-ranking Syrian and Lebanese officials in the murder.

The generals were released in 2009 for lack of evidence.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has since said that the group expects some of its members to be accused by the tribunal, which it describes as a tool of Israel.

Hezbollah pulled out of Saad al-Hariri's government after he rejected its demands to cut ties with the tribunal, withdraw the Lebanese judges and end Lebanon's contribution to its budget.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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2011/06/28

Israel Threatens to Attack Lebanon if Situation ‘Deteriorates’

http://www.abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=250033​

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - On Sunday, the Israeli radio quoted security sources as threatening to launch a large-scale military operation on southern Lebanon if the security situation continues to deteriorate in the region.

The sources claimed that the Israeli military has recently discovered new combat techniques and headquarters that belong to Hezbollah in the south. "We have recently discovered new military bases and equipment belonging to Hezbollah in these villages,” they went on to say.

The radio quoted the sources as claiming that “Israel will try to diminish injuries among civilians (if it launches such an operation), and will direct civilians to leave their houses at the right time and with all the available means,” a lie that no one can believe.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Report: Turkey tells West it might launch offensive against Syria

27 June 2011, Monday / TODAYSZAMAN.COM,
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-248...-it-might-launch-offensive-against-syria.html​

Turkish officials have told Western countries that Turkey might launch a military operation in Syria's north to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad's regime, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported on Monday.


“Turkey informed Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leadership of the possibility that it would launch an offensive in … Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Latakia,” As-Seyassah daily quoted an unnamed British officials as saying, according to the Lebanese news website nowlebanon.com.

The report comes amid fears of undesired confrontation between the Turkish and Syrian armies along the border. About 12,000 Syrians have fled their homes in northern towns and have taken refuge on the Turkish side of the border. The Syrian army is reportedly reinforcing troops near the Turkish border to prevent further inflows of refugees towards Turkey. The Turkish military is also reportedly considering reinforcing border troops. Senior Turkish commanders have recently traveled to the border province of Hatay to inspect the border area.

“Turkish officials fear the possibility of the Syrian army committing mistakes on its borders, which might oblige the Turkish army to cross the Syrian border,” the Kuwaiti daily quoted a Lebanese diplomat in Ankara as saying. The Syrian government's brutal crackdown on anti-regime protesters has brought once-close Turkish-Syrian relations to a breaking point, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan describing the Syrian response to protests as “savagery.”

Earlier, a columnist for Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, said to be close to Hezbollah, claimed that Iran had threatened Turkey that if it were to be used as a platform for NATO action against Syria, then Iran would bomb US and NATO bases in Turkey. A columnist for the newspaper also said Iran sees the preservation of the Syrian regime as the preservation of the Iranian and Lebanese governments.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Is Syria provoking war with Turkey?

posted on June 27, 2011, at 11:07 AM
http://theweek.com/article/index/216744/is-syria-provoking-war-with-turkey​

Old tensions are resurfacing on the border between Syria and Turkey, across which roughly 12,000 Syrian refugees have fled to escape a deadly crackdown on anti-government protesters by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Syrian troops have been massing near the border to keep more Syrian citizens from leaving, and Turkey, which is reportedly reinforcing its own troops in the area, is worried its neighbor could be preparing for cross-border strikes. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called the development "very worrisome." Are Syria and Turkey headed for a violent clash?

Syria could start the fighting any minute: There's no question "the situation between Syria and Turkey is explosive," says Zvi Bar'el at Israel's Haaretz. One concern in Ankara is that the Syrians would try to hit refugee camps in Turkey that have already taken in 12,000 Syrian civilians. No wonder Turkey is preparing for the worst.

"Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes"

Turkey could provoke a fight, too: Turkey knows it "faces a growing danger that Syrian economic and social disruption could spill onto its soil," says Ibon Villelabeitia at Reuters. And it's not waiting around passively. It has accused Assad of "savagery" against the protesters, and is contemplating setting up a buffer zone inside Syria to avoid being flooded with refugees. But that could easily spiral into armed conflict, by stoking fears within Syria that Turkey has "neo-Ottoman" plans to take over its neighbors.

"Turkey loses patience over Syria, weighs options"

Don't forget the history of disputed land here: "There are of course many reasons for Turkish qualms about the refugee situation," says Hugh Eakin in The New York Review of Books. For one thing, it pretty much spells the end of Turkey's recent attempts to improve ties with Assad. More importantly, the Turkish area in question used to belong to Syria, and still appears as part of the country in Syrian maps. Syria's support for separatist Kurds in the region pushed the countries "to the brink of war" in the 1990s. It's easy to imagine that we may be on the brink again.
"Will Syria's revolt disrupt the Turkish borderlands?"






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Rumors of US Plans for Libya, Syria Cause Concern

By Nick Amies
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article28420.htm​

June 28, 2011 "Deutsche Welle" -- -Among the rumors circulating of US plans for expanded military operations in Libya and a possible intervention in Syria lie certain truths which are cause for concern - despite the dismissals of analysts.

When the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1973 on March 17 of this year, it authorized the use of force by UN member states, granting them the right to "take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack in Libya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory."

In the three months that have followed, the rules of Resolution 1973 appear to have been bent to allow the NATO-led mission to not only protect civilians in Libya but actively pursue the forces of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, target his strongholds and effectively force him out of power.

This 'mission creep' has caused fractures and divisions within the international coalition that originally agreed to take on the UN's Libyan operations.

The Arab League, whose involvement helped sell the mission to the Arab world, is becoming increasingly nervous about what it sees as NATO's new goal of regime change. Meanwhile, those members of the Security Council that abstained from the Resolution 1973 vote are concerned by developments they fear may lead toward a land invasion of Libya and the contravening of the UN resolution.

Russia in particular has been angered by the deployment of military advisors and Special Forces operatives from the US, France and Britain to support the efforts of the Libyan opposition.

Russian warning

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters earlier this month after France and Britain had deployed attack helicopters to Libya for the first time that the prospect of land operations in Libya was against Moscow's wishes. "We consider that what is going on is either consciously or unconsciously sliding toward a land operation," he said. "That would be very deplorable."

Lavrov's comments came just days before NATO agreed to extend its mission in Libya for a further 90 days and less than a week after French President Nicolas Sarkozy, British Prime Minister David Cameron and US President Barack Obama agreed on the fringes of the G8 summit at the end of May that Gadhafi could not be negotiated with and that "the shadow of tyranny" must be lifted.

Soon after, a number of unsubstantiated reports based on anonymous military sources began flooding the Internet claiming that US forces were already being readied for a full-scale ground invasion of Libya.

The alleged military sources at the US Army's Fort Hood base in Texas, where these preparations were said to be taking place, revealed to the Infowars.com website that the invasion was being planned for October. This report spawned a wave of similar extrapolations on the theme of a potential escalation in Libya, again with little solid evidence to back them up.

"The prospect of the US considering a land invasion of Libya is very unlikely and with no credible sources to back up these rumors it would be very hard to gauge their authenticity," Dr. Robert Jackson, an international security expert at Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle. "It is possible that these rumors are being inspired by and confused with ship movements in the region."

Other experts believe the US has absolutely no appetite for further involvement in Libya.

"All efforts in Washington are now being diverted to completely withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq. There is no appetite or budget room for more war or 'contingencies,'" Dr. Geoffery Wawro, the director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas, told Deutsche Welle.

US Navy deployments

Whether it is part of a future invasion plan or not, the existence of a recently re-deployed US Navy strike group in the Mediterranean cannot be disputed and its arrival could certainly have helped generate the buzz about a possible escalation.

The group, led by the Nimitz-class nuclear aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush, along with the guided missile destroyers Truxtun and Mitscher, the missile cruisers Gettysburg and Anzio and eight squadrons of aircraft, has been sent to strengthen the US Sixth Fleet which is based in Naples, Italy. Most of the NATO missions in Libya to date have originated from bases in that country.

If an invasion was being planned, the amount of naval firepower now available in the region would give more than adequate support for any land forces being deployed on Libyan soil.

This is not the only US Navy strike group on the move. The USS Bataan, which alone can land more than 2,000 marines, equipped with helicopters and vertical takeoff planes, artillery and tanks, along with two other amphibious assault ships, anchored in Italy in mid-May. Reports suggest that the Bataan and its flotilla then left for an undisclosed location off the Syrian coast, prompting further rumors of a potential US intervention in Syria.

Battle group

The independent news site DEBKAfile, again quoting anonymous US military sources, reported that the Bataan was moving into position as part of a potential mission involving US and Turkish forces to stop the anti-opposition crackdown currently taking place in Syria and to counter any response from Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon to any such operations.

It also added that, under the advice of the Iranian secret service, Hezbollah had moved its rockets from northern Lebanon to areas in the center of the country "out of range of a possible American operation in Syria."

The report included statements from Syrian and Iranian officials warning against US interference but offered no Western sources to back up its claims. However, while there is no documented evidence that suggests the US is planning to intervene in Syria, the presence of US warships in the vicinity - for whatever reason - supported by Iranian and Syrian responses to its presence cannot be denied.

Analysts are not convinced that the US presence is a precursor to an intervention in Syria.

"It is very unlikely that the US will get involved with a direct intervention in Syria," Dr. Jackson said. "There is too much opposition from Russia there and the UN Security Council will never sign off on a resolution to justify it."

US security expert Xenia Dormandy agrees that the probability of the US significantly increasing its military resources to Libya is extremely low. She also believes that, unless there's a major contextual change in Syria and in Yemen the same is also true for these countries.

"Decisions in Washington today have to factor in politics," she told Deutsche Welle. "The politics in America right now are that spending needs to be focused at home, on jobs in the US, rather than on more operations overseas in areas perceived as being of dubious national interest to the US."

Wawro says the looming specter of another Iraq means the US will not risk any type of deployment on the ground.

"The Syrian situation is analogous to Iraq in the sense that 'if we break it, we own it,' which is a burden that Washington won't be eager to inherit. The sectarian differences in Syria are as deep as they are in Iraq. Decapitating the Assad regime might lead to a civil war. That is not an argument for supporting Assad, it is however an argument against an 'Operation Syrian Freedom.'"






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[mercyangel]

bump for the night crew.

 

[Housecarl]

For links in text please see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/27/blue_water_dreams

Blue Water Dreams
Why China wants an aircraft carrier.
BY JAMES HOLMES | JUNE 27, 2011


On a visit to Washington this month, Chinese Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff, confirmed what Asahi Shimbun and the Financial Times reported last December: China, he said, has officially committed itself to deploying aircraft-carrier task forces, a program that has evidently been under way since 2009. A Soviet flattop called Varyag, refitted and reportedly rechristened Shi Lang, may take to China's "near seas" for sea trials sometime around July 1. Whenever it takes place, the maiden cruise of the Varyag will mark a milestone in China's return to great power.

Any number of excellent technical studies of Beijing's carrier plans have appeared in recent years, and much ink has been spilled debating the ship's design characteristics: flight-deck configurations, launch and recovery systems, and propulsion plants. But to my mind, the best guide for figuring out what it all means in terms of China's naval strategy isn't the latest edition of Jane's Fighting Ships, but rather the two-plus-millennia-old History of the Peloponnesian War. In his chronicle of the protracted war between Athens and Sparta in the fifth century B.C., the Greek general and historian Thucydides proclaims that "three of the strongest motives" animating states' actions are "fear, honor, and interest." Peoples must arm lest they fall victim to the "law that the weaker should be subject to the stronger." China's aircraft-carrier ambitions can be seen in similar terms.


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During his tenure as chairman of the early People's Republic, Mao Zedong took little interest in the sea, focusing instead on land defense. Even after the Great Helmsman's demise, Chinese leaders like Deng Xiaoping contented themselves with free-riding on U.S. maritime supremacy, reasoning that finite resources were better spent on economic development than on putting steel in the water. But with development came increasing reliance on the sea for imports of fuel and raw materials, not to mention exports of finished goods. Shipping lanes now figure prominently in China's foreign-policy calculus. Chinese statesmen accordingly fret that the United States will hold China's economic interests hostage during a crisis or war in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere in maritime Asia, mounting a "distant blockade" to interdict the crucial sea routes on which Chinese commerce overwhelmingly depends.

Fear that the U.S. Navy will cut China's economic lifelines from afar beckons China's strategic gaze irresistibly seaward. An editorial in the official People's Daily last December captured China's broader geopolitical anxieties. The United States, the editors write, is intent on preserving "its hegemony across the world," including on the high seas in Asia. Focused on latter-day containment, Washington has stayed outside the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Why? Because, the editors write, it "considers exclusive economic zones to be international waters, which, by its hegemonic logic, should be included in the U.S. sphere of influence." In voicing their own fears, Chinese pundits -- not unreasonably -- impute fear to the United States. "Any fast-developing country," concludes the Daily, will be "instinctively seen" as a challenge to U.S. primacy. Such countries must construct strong military and naval forces, equipping themselves to resist a domineering America.

Such a bleak analysis would be instantly familiar to Thucydides, who found the "real cause" of the Peloponnesian War in the "growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta." Fear made great-power war "inevitable." From Beijing's standpoint, assenting to permanent U.S. maritime supremacy would amount to knuckling under to Thucydides's law condemning the weak to remain subservient to the strong. Dread of what U.S. leaders might do with overwhelming sea power helps account for China's quest for a great navy.

But why aircraft carriers specifically? Beijing is already fielding an impressive cruise-missile navy specifically designed to deny U.S. naval forces access to Asian seas and skies during a Taiwan confrontation or some other upheaval. Cruise missiles, augmented by submarines, ballistic missiles, and land-based tactical aircraft, would be far more lethal against the U.S. Navy than any carrier fleet Beijing will put to sea anytime soon. Writing in International Security, Boston College professor Robert Ross ascribes China's carrier-centric naval buildup to "naval nationalism." In this view, high-end warships represent tokens of great power that Beijing simply must have to fulfill its destiny as a seafaring state. Such talismans fire popular enthusiasm for nautical endeavors, and for the state that undertakes them.


History is not unimportant here. China still nurses memories of its long "century of humiliation" at the hands of seaborne conquerors like imperial Britain, France, Germany, and Japan. Starting with the First Opium War (1839-1842), imperial powers defeated the ruling Qing dynasty again and again, compelling Qing emperors to accept "unequal treaties" along with such indignities as foreign gunboats patrolling Chinese rivers. Such memories are a lot for Asia's historical central power to stomach. Furthermore, Chinese observers have looked around the U.N. Security Council and noticed that all five permanent members except China deploy aircraft carriers. Closer to home, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force operates light carriers known euphemistically as "helicopter destroyers"; South Korea has a similar vessel. Even Thailand has a flattop. The upshot is that a carrier will certify China's arrival as a sea power.

But there's more to China's navy than nationalism -- and there's more to the Chinese aircraft-carrier program than salvaging China's good name or keeping up with the Joneses. Beijing can use carrier task forces to uphold real, tangible interests. Most obviously, a PLA Navy carrier group could exit from the China seas through the Ryukyus, to Taiwan's north, or the Luzon Strait, to the island's south, during times of strife. By threatening the east coast of Taiwan, carrier groups would further complicate a tactical picture for the island's defenders that already verges on hopeless. The PLA already holds a commanding margin of superiority, so carrier operations would not decide a cross-strait war. But compelling the Taiwan Navy and Air Force to look eastward -- as well as westward and skyward -- would further disorient them, letting the PLA set the terms of engagement. PLA forces could thus prevail before the U.S. military could intervene, and Beijing would fulfill its dream of national unification with minimal disturbance to the regional order.

There's also the South China Sea, which has dominated headlines of late. Some Chinese-claimed islets in the Spratlys and Paracels are too small to fortify; carrier groups would provide a forward, mobile airfield from which to defend the islands, the adjacent waters, and the rich natural resources thought to lie in the seabed beneath. And as Beijing turns its gaze further southwest, carriers could anchor a PLA Navy presence in South Asia, should Chinese leaders opt to create a standing Indian Ocean squadron. Flattops could perform many functions, just as these multimission platforms have spearheaded U.S. naval operations since World War II.

Nor must Chinese carriers match their U.S. Navy counterparts on a ship-for-ship basis to achieve Beijing's goals. As noted before, the PLA Navy surface fleet benefits from dense land-based fire support. For instance, the PLA Second Artillery Corps, or missile force, is reportedly fielding the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), a truck-launched weapon capable of striking ships under way hundreds of miles from Asian shores. There is no known defense against it. If the missile lives up to its hype -- and if Beijing acquires sufficient numbers of rounds -- U.S. Pacific Fleet commanders will be increasingly reluctant to venture westward of Guam. And if they do accept the losses inflicted by ASBM strikes, U.S. mariners will encounter land-based combat aircraft, quiet diesel submarines, and stealthy high-speed catamarans toting long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Just reaching the combat theater could come at a steep cost.

If indeed the PLA converts the Western Pacific into a no-go zone for the U.S. Navy, it can uphold China's Thucydidean interests without ever risking a battle with its major antagonist. Land-based defenses may grant PLA naval commanders time to train pilots. It's a steep learning curve: In 1954 alone -- fully eight years after a jet fighter first landed aboard the carrier USS Franklin D. Roosevelt, and despite having developed sound concepts for flying jet aircraft from carrier decks -- the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps lost 776 aircraft and 535 airmen. China is by no means exempt from such hazards. Shore defenses also give China's navy a respite to work the engineering kinks out of the flattops themselves and to experiment with fleet tactics. Carriers steam in company with an entourage of escorts and logistics ships. It takes time to sort through various formations, defensive screens, underway replenishment techniques, and the like. Shore fire support affords the PLA leisure to devise its own approach to carrier operations, and it spares China the need for a costly, uncertain naval arms race with the United States. Why waste scarce resources?

By no means is combat readiness the sole motive propelling China's carrier ambitions. Carriers can prosecute numerous noncombat missions. After the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, for instance, Chinese pundits took note of how U.S. Navy vessels transiting the afflicted region rushed to the scene to render assistance. Hard power, in other words, enabled the soft kind, and Beijing felt sidelined. To remedy such shortcomings, it has built vessels like hospital ships and amphibious transports suitable for responding to natural and humanitarian disasters. Big-deck carriers would make a worthy addition to China's emerging disaster-relief repertoire.

And even these non-Thucydidean errands of mercy add luster to China's maritime reputation, bolstering the legitimacy of its naval enterprise and thus indirectly advancing its national interests. Great powers do well by doing good. Comforting the afflicted is not only worthwhile in its own right but helps the benefactor establish a track record for using its martial prowess wisely and humanely. Such a power eases suspicions of its intentions by furnishing international public goods that benefit not only China but its Asian neighbors. Beijing knows that to truly be a great sea power, you have to look -- and act -- the part.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Israel says peace ships will have extremists on board

Conal Urquhart
June 30, 2011
http://www.theage.com.au/world/isra...-have-extremists-on-board-20110629-1gqw8.html​

JERUSALEM: Israel has stepped up its campaign to stop a flotilla of ships breaching its blockade of Gaza by accusing some of the passengers of intending to harm Israeli soldiers if they boarded.

An Israeli government official said intelligence agents had discovered that extremists aimed to infiltrate the peace activists travelling on the 10-ship flotilla.

''On the flotilla, there's an unofficial division of labour. There are activists, writers and politicians who say they are not aware of anyone with bad motives. We believe them, but the people that we are concerned about are avoiding the television cameras like the plague.

''We have put intelligence assets into operation so that we know what kind of people are on the flotilla. We believe there are people, and we don't know how many, who will mix in with the peaceful activists and will use violence directly against our soldiers,'' the official said.

The organisers of the flotilla say all participants have had compulsory training in non-violent resistance and have pledged not to use violence.

One organiser, Huwaida Arraf, said she was mystified by Israel's claims. ''We don't know where they are getting this from. We are very open about who we are and what we are doing,'' she said.

Ms Arraf said the flotilla had faced other problems but they hoped to overcome them. One ship, the Juliano, is being repaired after a suspected underwater sabotage attack.

The flotilla was due to sail this week but it is expected to be delayed until next week.

The latest activity against the flotilla follows two incidents that have embarrassed the Israeli government. In one, the director of the government press office in Jerusalem threatened journalists travelling with the flotilla that they would be banned from Israel for 10 years.

In the other, government staff circulated a video with an actor, Omer Gershon, purporting to be a gay rights activist whose offer to join the flotilla had been rejected. The activist said he was rejected because the organisers were associated with Hamas which was homophobic.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/isra...ts-on-board-20110629-1gqw8.html#ixzz1Qft7fpl8



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[The Flying Dutchman]

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'Warning to Assad: Attack us, we'll hit you personally'

By JPOST.COM STAFF AND OREN KESSLER
06/29/2011 10:48
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=227061​

Israel reportedly sent message through Ankara following intelligence reports of unusual troop, missile movement, Kuwaiti paper reports.
Talkbacks (15)

Israel sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad in recent days, warning him that if he started a war with the Jewish state in order to divert attention from domestic problems, Israel will target him personally, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Tuesday.

According to the report, the personal warning was sent through Turkey following intelligence reports of unusual Syrian troop movements, including the moving of long-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel.

The report added that the IDF has increased its preparedness on the northern border out of fear that Hezbollah may attempt to stage another kidnapping of soldiers or civilians along the Lebanese border.

Last month, following deadly attempts to breach Syria's border with Israel, US-based Syria experts accused the Assad regime of being behind the Naksa Day protests on the Israeli border in order to distract from the prolonged uprising challenging Syria's rulers.

“It’s almost a cliché – this is what he always does. He’s under pressure at home, so he deflects attention,” Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said. During the 2006 Second Lebanon War, “it was by rallying the people around resistance to Israel, and this time it’s with the Palestinian cause. This is not going to work.

Government sources on various continents also accused Assad of at least enabling, if not spurring the deadly protests that turned into the most volatile clashes on the Golan border since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.




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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Israel warns Assad not to start war

Published: June 29, 2011 at 9:30 AM

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has been warned repeated by Israel not to start a war.

UPI
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...ns-Assad-not-to-start-war/UPI-11201309354207/​

JERUSALEM, June 29 (UPI) -- Israel has reportedly warned Syrian President Bashar Assad not to start a war with the Jewish state to divert attention from his domestic problems.

News of the warning comes from the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida, the Jerusalem Post reported Wednesday. Al-Jarida said Israel sent a message to Assad through Turkey following intelligence reports of unusual Syrian troop movements.

Those reports included information that long-range ballistic missiles had been moved into positions that could be used to target Israel.

"It's almost a cliché -- this is what he always does," said Andrew Tabler, a Syrian expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "He's under pressure at home, so he deflects attention."

Tabler told the Post Assad did the same thing during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

"This time it's with the Palestinian cause," he said. "This is not going to work."


Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...o-start-war/UPI-11201309354207/#ixzz1Qfvg7yfY



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[almost ready]

Watching this pot boiling over is breathtaking. So many elements now it's hard to keep track.

Thanks for keeping an eye on it for us, Dutch.

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran denies British nuclear missile claim

June 29, 2011 03:47 PM
Reuters
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...with-nuclear-capability-UK.ashx#axzz1QfxhA5Rc​

TEHRAN: Iran denied Wednesday testing a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead as Britain says.

"None of the missiles tested by Iran is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague told Parliament on Wednesday that Iran was testing missiles capable of delivering nuclear payload.

Iran, at loggerheads with the West over its nuclear program, is carrying out a 10-day military exercise in a show of strength it hopes will warn Israel and the United States against any attack.

As part of the exercise, which started Monday, Iran test-fired 14 surface-to-surface missiles Tuesday with a maximum range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles).


Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...with-nuclear-capability-UK.ashx#ixzz1Qfxkvt1h
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)



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[The Flying Dutchman]

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2011/06/29

Lebanese Brigadier General: Indictment in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri imminent

http://www.abna.ir/data.asp?lang=3&id=250262​

(Ahlul Bayt News Agency) - Head of Al-Mourabitoun movement in Lebanon Brigadier General Mustafa Hamdan revealed that the indictment in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was imminent. He undermined, however, the destructive effect of the indictment due to the developments in the Arab world.”

In an exclusive interview with Al-Manar Website, Hamdan said that whoever stands behind the so-called Special Tribunal for Lebanon was in need for the indictment to pave the way for a Sunni-Shiite sedition that was entitled to include the whole region, from Egypt to Bahrain and Lebanon. He noted that to achieve this objective, the indictment would state that “a number of Shiite individuals have killed the Sunni Prime Minister.”

While ruling out the possibility that any internal side would carry a stupid act on ground to serve the political verdict, and expressing belief that the Lebanese army was ready to confront any act that threatens the country’s high interests, Hamdan undermined the value of any arrest warrant that could be issued by the tribunal, and said that international arrest warrants have proven to be baseless and valueless.

Hamdan called on the Lebanese government to demand the United Nations to inquire the four years of investigations in Hariri’s assassination. He also urged the government to demand the formation of a Lebanese-international committee that supervises the expenditures of the STL, which was mostly financed by Lebanese taxpayers’ money; however, those appointed by the court spent most of this money on carnivals and events that do not serve the goal.

The retired general, meanwhile, described the US embassy in Beirut as a den of intelligence that transferred from the state of collecting data to execution. He said that the Israelis and Americans were two faces of the same coin, and noted that those who resemble former PM Fouad Saniora who confessed that he serves the U.S. should be the embarrassed ones.

INDICTMENT IMMINENT…


Brigadier General Mustafa Hamdan told Al-Manar Website that the indictment in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was believed to be imminent. He reiterated that the so-called Special Tribunal for Lebanon was politicized.

He said that whoever stands behind the tribunal needed to use it as a tool to serve his plot to create sedition not only in Lebanon, but in the whole region. Yet, he noted that this indictment’s level of destruction diminished in light of the recent developments in the region. “There was a plot to create sedition throughout the region, from Beirut to Cairo and Bahrain,” he said.

While noting that the possibility of making use of the indictment, even in the local political scene, was very low, he stressed that the American administration was the one who specifies for the STL President Antonio Cassesse and STL Prosecutor Judge Daniel Bellemare the time to release the indictment. He also noted that releasing it at this stage was aimed at raising the morale of those he called “the US embassy bloc” as well as pressuring the new Lebanese government, headed by PM Najib Miqati and determined to face the American-Israeli project in the region.

WE WILL FACE INDICTMENT WITH ALL POSSIBLE TOOLS


Asked whether there was any plan to face this indictment, General Hamdan asserted that the new majority forces would face the indictment through all possible means. He said that such confrontation requires first of all national unity and commitment to basic principles and values. He stressed the need to keep away from provocations that might be adopted by the US embassy group.

Hamdan stressed the need to face the indictment at the level of the new government, especially if it was released conform to prior rumors and leaks. He said that the indictment would not name the Resistance as a suspect in Hariri’s assassination. Rather, it would claim that a number of Shiite extremist individuals have killed the Sunni PM, serving therefore the sedition scheme in the region, Hamdan emphasized.

Hamdan called the Lebanese government to ask the United Nations to launch an inquiry over the progress of the investigations throughout the four years that followed the assassination of the former premier. He said that such an act could not be considered as a confrontation with the international community but an attempt to restore justice. He recalled that the former head of the investigating committee into Hariri’s assassination German Judge Detlev Mehlis has issued his own indictment when he accused Syria, President Emile Lahoud and the four officers, including Hamdan himself, of involvement in the crime. “Then, we saw former PM Saad Hariri saying that these were all mere lies. Afterwards, we discovered that Hariri himself was a partner in the false witnesses’ conspiracy,\" he said, referring to the audio recordings that showed Hariri chatting with the so-called king witness, Mohamad Zuhair Siddiq.

WHERE DID OUR MONEY GO?


Hamdan pointed to another issue that should be taken into consideration by the government when dealing with the tribunal, its financing process. He noted that millions of dollars were spent since the tribunal’s creation, and said that the Lebanese people had an important contribution in it. He wondered whther rumors about corruption within the STL were true, and pointed to the suspicious phenomenon of recurrent resignations whithin the tribunal, which seemed to be abnormal. He also pointed to the “carnavals” organized by the tribunal, in contradiction with its mission. He urged the STL officials to complete their real mission and find out the truth in Harri’s assassination case instead of holding workshops and organizing carnavals here and there.

In a related development, Hamdan said he did not understand how the members of the policy statement’s drafting committee could disagree over the STL stance. He said that all Lebanese agree that they want truth and justice in this cause. However, he noted that this so-called international justice has proven to be ambiguous and unfair. “That’s why the government should take a precise stance in this regard and call for the formation of an investigative committee,” he said.

IDIOCY NOT ALLOWED


Asked wheter he fears the reactions that could be adopted by the ‘other bloc’ in case the indictment was released, Hamdan said that current local circumstances in addition to the region’s political map don’t allow any idiocy from this kind, in the service of an indictment believed to be politicized. Yet, he expressed belief in the abilities of the Lebanese national army, and said it was ready to face all acts undermining stability and threatening the nation’s higher interests.

He also undermined the value of any arrest warrants, saying that international arrest warrants proved to have no value at all, and that they were trash, nothing more. He said the arrest warrants were silly, like the whole tribunal. “Not only arrest warrants were released against us. We were also unfairly detained. Then, we were freed and they were obliged to apologize from us. We don’t want this scenario to repeat itself.”

DID US EMBASSY TURN TO BE RELIGIOUS SITE?


The Murabitoun leader, meanwhile, described the US embassy in Beirut to be a ‘den of intelligence’ that turned from the stage of collecting data to execution. While confirming that diplomats in the embassy were involved in a number of security incidents in the country, he found strange how some Lebanese rushed to defend the embassy following the latest speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, even before its spokesman “spy Ryan Cliha”. He wondered whether the embassy turned to be a religious site, in light of the defensive remarks.

Hamdan told Al-Manar Website that he knows, in detail, how the US embassy officials sought to put Lebanese journalists and journalists in their service. He recalled of the CIA officials who were in the embassy and how they used to move and with whom.

Hamdan stressed that what happened proved that the Americans and Israelis were absolutely the same. He said that those who should be embarrassed are the ones who previously confessed in one sense or another of being US spies, such as former PM Fouad Saniora and former minister Mohamad Chatah. He also recalled how some politicians used to claim that they like the Americans and hate the Israelis, which seemed to be impossibe as Barack Obama was Israeli before the AIPAC and Benjamin Netanyahu turned to be American in front of the Congress.

ISRAELI THREATS… INTERNAL MESSAGE


To end, Hamdan commented on the recent Israeli threat of attacking south Lebanon in case the situation in the region ‘deteriorates.’ He said that all what the Israelis say nowadays was in fact addressed to their own scared and concerned society. He pointed out that 90% of the Israeli statements and messages only concern the Israelis themselves. While noting that the Resistance takes them into consideration, he said that all drills and threats actually reflect the Israeli state of confusion and alertness.

Hamdan said that Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah offered in his latest speech a comprehensive and clear vision of the conflict in the region, and specified the Resistance factions from Iran to Gaza, passing through Syria and Lebanon.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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IDF deploys Iron Dome missile interceptor in north

By REUTERS
06/28/2011 20:32
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=226976​

An Iron Dome rocket interceptor was deployed near Haifa on Tuesday, a military spokeswoman said, highlighting its possible use in any future hostilities with Lebanese guerillas.

"Battery placement is determined by the appropriate authorities and based on ongoing assessment of the volatile security situation," the military spokeswoman told Reuters.




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[CGTech]

Good job Dutch. Getting interesting over there, isn't it?

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran conducting secret nuclear tests, Britain says

NEWSCORE
Posted: 10:05 AM, June 29, 2011
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/intern..._mrZ1PY7CLyW02OzGLKzoFO?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=​

LONDON -- Iran has carried out secret tests of nuclear-capable missiles, British foreign secretary William Hague said Wednesday.

Iran is conducting 10 days of war games, which included the public testing Tuesday of a new, medium-range missile which a Revolutionary Guards commander warned was capable of hitting US bases in Afghanistan and other military assets in the Middle East.

Hague accused Tehran of using the public tests as cover for testing missiles capable of carrying a nuclear payload.

"Iran has also been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN resolution 1929," Hague told lawmakers.

Tehran also "announced that it intends to triple its capacity to produce 20 percent enriched uranium. These are enrichment levels far greater than is needed for peaceful nuclear energy," Hague said.

Britain would "maintain and continue to increase pressure on Iran to negotiate an agreement on their nuclear program," Hague said.

The US accused Iran of "bragging" about its military threat after it tested 14 missiles Tuesday.

"Iran, rather than getting itself back in the good graces of the international community ... seems to be bragging about its capabilities, conducting secret programs, parading new missiles in front of the press," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said. "So that's not taking us in the direction that we want to go with Iran."

An Iranian government spokesman denied testing a nuclear-capable missile, Reuters news agency reported.


Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/intern...ar_tests_mrZ1PY7CLyW02OzGLKzoFO#ixzz1Qg0snjxn



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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Iran Conducting Secret Ballistic Missile Tests

Posted: Jun 29, 2011 8:07 AM
http://www.kztv10.com/news/iran-conducting-secret-ballistic-missile-tests/​

LONDON - Britain's foreign secretary says Iran has conducted covert tests of ballistic missiles alongside a 10-day program of public military maneuvers.

William Hague told the House of Commons on Wednesday that there had been secret experiments with missiles and rocket launchers.

Iran is conducting 10 days of war games in an apparent show of strength to the West and on Tuesday fired 14 missiles in public tests.

Britain believes Tehran has conducted at least three secret tests of medium-range ballistic missiles since October.

Iran and the West remain in dispute over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies insist it is aimed at developing atomic weapons - a charge Iran rejects.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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2011-06-28

Iran shows Russia downed US drones

Tehran says US drones - that 'violated' Iran territories - had 'long-range capability', 'most modern' in American navy.

Iran says it made drone models through reverse engineering

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=46972​

TEHRAN - Iran has shown Russia US drones it shot down over the Gulf, Revolutionary Guards aerospace commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hadjizadeh was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

"Russian experts requested to see these drones and they looked at both the downed drones and the models made by the Guards through reverse engineering," the official IRNA news agency quoted Hadjizadeh as saying.

Hajizadeh did not elaborate on the number or type of unmanned US aircraft it had shot down, or when or where it had done so.

Iran announced on January 2 that its forces had downed two US drones after they "violated" Iranian-controlled territory. It later said it would put the aircraft on public display.

"The planes that were shot down are among the most modern US navy drones and have a long-range capability," the Fars news agency quoted the commander of the Guards' naval forces, Ali Fadavi, as saying at the time.

The US navy's Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, just across the Gulf from Iran. Washington never confirmed Tehran had shot down any of its drones.

The US military and Central Intelligence Agency routinely use drones to monitor military activity in the region. They have also used them to launch missile strikes in Yemen as well as in Afghanistan and Pakistan's lawless tribal belt.

On several occasions, the Iranian military has shown off drones which it says it manufactured itself using the latest technology. Washington has expressed concern about Tehran's possession of the aircraft.





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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Yadlin: The only existential threat to Israel is Iran

By JPOST.COM STAFF
06/28/2011 20:13
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=226973​

Former IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin on Tuesday stated that "the only existential threat to Israel in the year 2011 and in the years that follow, is Iran," Army Radio reported. Yadlin made the comments at a conference in Tel Aviv.

Yadlin said that if Iran succeeded in obtaining nuclear weapons, additional Middle Eastern countries would subsequently become nuclear armed.

The former intel chief warned that a nuclear armed Iran would be much more aggressive than the Islamic Republic currently is today.

Yadlin said that even the Israeli-Palestinian peace process would be negatively effected if Iran succeeded in obtaining nuclear weapons.






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Syrian Forces Launch Deadly Attack Against Northwestern Province

Published June 29, 2011
Associated Press
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/0...-deadly-attack-against-northwestern-province/​

AP

June 29: Syrian refugees demonstrate against their country's regime and its leader Bashar al-Assad in a camp in the Turkish border town of Yayladagi in Hatay province, Turkey.

BEIRUT -- A prominent Syrian activist says army tanks and helicopters have attacked a village in a restive northwestern province, killing four people.

Ammar Qurabi, head of the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria, cited witnesses as saying military forces moved into Rameh village early Wednesday to quell days of protests against President Bashar Assad's regime.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/0...-against-northwestern-province/#ixzz1Qg4DQtca



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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Assad’s forces kill four as troops shell villages at random

29 June 2011, Wednesday / AP/REUTERS, AMMAN
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-248...-four-as-troops-shell-villages-at-random.html​

Syrian troops shot dead four civilians on Wednesday in a village in the northwestern province of Idlib, a prominent activist said, as tanks continued to sweep the hill area near Turkey.

“The four died in random firing on the village of Rama from tank machineguns, which has become customary in these unjustified assaults. The tanks started firing on surrounding woods then directed their fire on the village,” Ammar Qarabi, president of the Syrian National Human Rights Organization, told Reuters.

Qarabi, who is from Idlib, said he based his information on several witnesses’ testimony. Syria has banned most international media, making it difficult to verify accounts of violence during a three-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. Rights campaigners say troops, security forces and gunmen loyal to Assad have killed over 1,300 civilians since the uprising for political freedom erupted in the southern Hauran Plain in March, including over 150 people killed in a scorched earth campaign against towns and villages in Idlib.

They say scores of troops and police were also killed for refusing to fire on civilians. Syrian authorities say more than 250 soldiers and police died in clashes with “armed terrorist groups,” whom they also blame for most civilian deaths. Assad adviser Bouthaina Shaaban told Sky News: “We hope that by conducting and hastening the national dialogue, we will be able to isolate any militant or violent group and work together with the international community to overcome that big problem.”

More than 10,000 Syrian refugees have fled to Turkey since the military assaults on Idlib began in areas nearer to the border with Turkey three weeks ago. Turkey shares an 840-kilometer border with Syria, a mostly Sunni country ruled by a tight-knit hierarchy belonging the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Islam.

Turkey and has become increasingly critical of Assad after backing him in his moves to improve ties with the West and seek a peace deal with Israel.

Assad had opened the Syrian market to Turkish goods, but Turkish container traffic to Syria fell sharply over the last month, merchants say.

Sawasiah, another Syrian rights organization headed by lawyer Mohannad al-Hassani, said a security campaign that has resulted in the arrest of more than 12,000 people across Syria since the uprising erupted in March, has intensified in the last few days. A statement by Sawasiah said security forces arrested on Tuesday Farhad Khader Ayou, an official in the Kurdish Mustaqbal Party, in the eastern province of Hasaka on Tuesday.

The statement said 17 people in the province of Raqqa to the west were arrested in the last 48 hours, adding to hundreds of people arbitrarily arrested across the country this week.

Assad’s repression of the protests has triggered Western condemnation and a gradual escalation of US and European Union economic sanctions against Assad and other Syrian officials.

France’s Foreign Minister Alain Juppe will travel to Russia later this week where he will meet his Russian counterpart and discuss the Syrian impasse in the hope of convincing Moscow to change its stance on a resolution condemning Syria at the United Nations. foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said Paris was extremely concerned with the ongoing violence in Syria saying that “reforms and repression were not compatible.”






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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Arab newpspaper claims Israel threatens to assassinate
Syria leader Bashar Assad if war launched

By Anissa Haddadi | June 29, 2011 10:49 AM GMT
http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/171276/20110629/is-israel-preparing-for-an-attack-on-syria.htm​

Israel sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad in recent days, warning him that if he started a war with the Jewish state in order to divert attention from domestic problems, Israel will target him personally, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Tuesday.

According to the report, the personal warning was sent through Turkey following intelligence reports of unusual Syrian troop movements, including the moving of long-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel.

The report added that the Israeli Defence Force has increased its preparedness on the northern border out of fear that Hezbollah may attempt to stage another kidnapping of soldiers or civilians along the Lebanese border.

Last month, following deadly attempts to breach Syria's border with Israel, US-based Syria experts accused the Assad regime of being behind the Naksa Day protests on the Israeli border in order to distract from the prolonged uprising challenging Syria's rulers.


"It's almost a cliché - this is what he always does. He's under pressure at home, so he deflects attention," Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said. During the 2006 Second Lebanon War, "it was by rallying the people around resistance to Israel, and this time it's with the Palestinian cause. This is not going to work."

Government sources on various continents also accused Assad of at least enabling, if not spurring the deadly protests that turned into the most volatile clashes on the Golan border since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Speculations have recently been rising as the region is still surfing through a vague of unrest. Analysts are anxious Assad could use a direct attack on Israel to divert attention from the protests in his own country. He could also use a conflict with the neighbouring state as a way to try and mobilise the people to stand by and support his government.

Observers have also said that the international community was so reluctant to intervene in Syria because they were fears amongst Israeli Defence Forces that Bashar Al-Assad would turn to Israel for retaliation.

Reports also alleged that the Syrian leader could use the thousands of ballistic missiles Syria has manufactured over the years, as well as an extensive chemical arsenal, bolstered as a replacement for the nuclear reactor Israel destroyed in 2007.

At the same time, analysts also cited the weapons as a source of worry, as if the leader was forced to step down, which now seems increasingly unlikely, many countries are scared the ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons could fall in even more volatile hands and send the whole region into turmoil.

Israel is also said to be alarmed by the latest development in Lebanon and Iran, which it sees as Syria's partners in crime.

Recently, Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour, visited Tehran and praised Iran's role in "peace and security in the region," and both the Lebanese and Iranian leaders insisted they would now be working on expending bilateral relations.

Also, the long-delayed UN-backed Lebanon tribunal indictments for the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are expected within weeks. As the Assad regime and Hezbollah have both been accused of being involved, if the trial puts them directly in the firing line, things could start heating up with supporters and protesters clashing in the streets.

As unrest in Syria refuses to die down and Assad is determined to stay in power, it is understandable that Israel, who has very few friends in the region, is worried. However Netanyahu's government needs to differentiate the protests that are directed to the Syrian's government to the protests it faces due to its policies on Palestine. As long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is on-going, Israel will struggle with feeling safe as most of its neighbours support Palestine. As protests are still strong, it seems that tensions lead to suspicions. It seems however unrealistic to think that Assad would attack Israel since he knows that is one thing the country's western allies will not allow him to do.







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[The Flying Dutchman]

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Minister: Terrorists want to take part in flotilla

Published: 06.29.11, 17:55 / Israel News
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4089015,00.html​

Speaking to the foreign press about the planned Gaza flotilla, Minister of Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Yuli Edelstein said that "Israel is preparing for the worst case scenarion. We know of terrorists who are interested in taking part in the flotilla and everybody understands what could happen if even one of them decided to do something suicidal.


"There is no starvation in Gaza, which is benefiting form 16% growth. If organizers are interested in transferring goods they know they can do so by coordinating with Israel," Edelstein added, calling the flotilla a "provocation". (Attila Somfalvi)




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[The Flying Dutchman]

Watching this pot boiling over is breathtaking. So many elements now it's hard to keep track.

Thanks for keeping an eye on it for us, Dutch.

You (and everyone else who reads these threads) are welcome. FWIW I have placed me (and mine) on alert!

(IMHO) We ARE CLOSE NOW! VERY CLOSE to the "Blow Off"....​

 

[northern watch]

Russian Military Test-Fires New Missile

MOSCOW June 28, 2011 (AP)

Russia's navy successfully test-fired an advanced ballistic missile from a new-generation nuclear submarine Tuesday following a string of failed tests that dimmed the deployment of Moscow's most expensive post-Soviet military project.

The Bulava missile was launched from the Yuri Dolgoruky submarine in the White Sea that separates Russia from Scandinavia, Defense Ministry spokesman Col. Igor Konashenkov said. The missile's warheads reached the Kura testing range on the Pacific Kamchatka Peninsula, some 5,500 kilometers (3,500 miles) away, he said.

The Bulava is a three-stage, hypersonic intercontinental missile with highly maneuverable warheads capable of dodging any potential missile defenses. It is designed to have a range of 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles) and carry six to ten individually targeted nuclear warheads.

Russia's top brass described it as a future pillar of Russia's nuclear arsenal as Soviet-built missiles are gradually retired. The Bulava program has consumed a large chunk of the Russian military budget without much success — only half of the previous 14 launches were pronounced successful.

Two of the 14 tests were launched from the Yuri Dolgoruky, a new Borei-class nuclear submarine specifically designed to carry up to 12 the Bulava missiles. The submarine's construction started in 1996 and dragged on for years due to poor financing.

Several other Borei-class nuclear submarines are under construction, and Russia plans to complete a total of eight subs by 2015.

Retired Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin hailed Tuesday's launch saying the missile could be deployed next year after four more successful tests. "The launch proves all the previous criticism of Bulava unjust," Dvorkin told the Interfax news agency.

The military said they plan five more launches of the Bulava this year.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=13947561

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

 

[northern watch]

You (and everyone else who reads these threads) are welcome. FWIW I have placed me (and mine) on alert!

(IMHO) We ARE CLOSE NOW! VERY CLOSE to the "Blow Off"....​

Dutch, I totally agree. I am not sure of the timing that war will happen. I was thinking September or October, but now I am not sure.

NW

 

[northern watch]

Iran has secretly tested nuclear capable missiles – UK Foreign Secretary

Iran has secretly tested nuclear capable missiles – UK Foreign Secretary

DEBKAfile Special Report June 29, 2011, 5:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

British Foreign Secretary William Hague stated Wednesday, June 29: "Iran has also been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN resolution 1929."

This was reported first by Debkafile last year and repeated in the face of US and Israeli denials. Hague was the first Western leader to confirm Debkafile disclosures up to and including our report Tuesday on Iran's 10-day exercise. Our military sources stressed that Iran's plan to launch a monkey into space – and therefore a 330-kilo payload - by the Kavoshgar-5 was evidence that it had developed a rocket capable of delivering a nuclear warhead at any point on the planet.

Hague also pointed out in a statement to parliament that Iran had announced plans to triple its capacity to produce 20 percent enriched uranium - "enrichment levels far greater than is needed for peaceful nuclear energy."

Debkafile's military and intelligence sources note that the Foreign Secretary's words follow the concentration of large-scale American naval, air and marine forces in the Mediterranean, the Aden and Oman straits, the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. This seaborne army is positioned for strikes against targets in Iran, Syria and Libya at 12 hours' notice. It may be safely assumed that Hague's ominous disclosure was pre-arranged with Washington.

In the past month, our sources have also quoted several Saudi royal princes as warning that if Iran attained a nuclear capability, it would not be the only Persian Gulf nation to be armed with a nuclear weapon and missiles for its delivery.

As Iran's military exercise went into its third day, Aerospace commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Amir Ali Hajizadeh announced the launching of the new Ghadir radar system which he said had been "designed and manufactured to discover air targets, stealth planes, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and satellites at low orbits." The system, claimed to have a range of 1,100 kilometers in radius and height of 300 kilometers, was said to be operational in Iran for the first time.

In another blatantly hostile gesture towards the United Sates, Hajizadeh announced that Russian military experts had been allowed to examine American drones said to have been shot down in the Persian Gulf for a close-up examination.

This disclosure came on top of his announcement Tuesday that the fourteen 2,000-kilometer range missiles tested Tuesday were designed exclusively to hit American bases in Afghanistan and Israel.

He referred to the downed US drones in the plural while not indicating where, when and how they were shot down. The sort of inspection permitted the Russian military delegation of the pilotless aircraft's electronic systems is normally conducted discreetly so as not ruffle relations. This time, it was most unusually made public – not a good message for Russian-US ties especially in view of Moscow's steps against Washington's war on Libya and bid for sanctions against Syria.

By letting Russia know how they were shot down and displaying models constructed by reverse engineering, Tehran and Moscow indicated they shared the secrets of the US drones' vulnerabilities to attack.

Six months ago, Iran announced it had downed two American drones on January 2. At the time, Revolutionary Guards navy commander Ali Fadavi said the planes shot down were among the most modern US navy drones with a long-range capability.

The US Fifth Fleet operating in the Persian Gulf never responded to this Iranian statement but it did not deny it either. Generally, the American navy in the Middle East uses the unmanned MQ-8B Fire Scout helicopter for information-gathering missions, but the Iranians did not specify whether the American drones came from ships or from other air bases in the Middle East.

http://www.debka.com/article/21075/

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

 

[LC]

A couple of summers ago I didn't see how the pot could boil any more without boiling over and yet, now it is boiling even harder and still hasn't boiled over. Surely it cannot go on this way much longer.

LC