WAR 04-06-2024-to-04-12-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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(339) 03-16-2024-to-03-22-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****​

(340) 03-23-2024-to-03-29-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****​

(341) 03-30-2024-to-04-05-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****​


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Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

TEXAS GOV. ABBOTT WARNS WAR AT THE BORDER COMING “REALLY SOON”

WAR - 03-30-2024-to-04-05-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(338) 03-09-2024-to-03-15-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR**** (339) 03-16-2024-to-03-22-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR**** (340) 03-23-2024-to-03-29-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****...
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WORLD

Under Biden Administration, Iran's Mullahs Enjoying Green Light to Go Nuclear​

The prospect of the world's "leading sponsor of state terrorism" armed with nuclear weapons demands serious and immediate action.

MAJID RAFIZADEH
April 6, 2024
4 MINUTES READ
The ascent of Iran's nuclear program under the watch of the Biden administration stands as a grim illustration of its failure and inadequacy. Iran's mullahs appear to have been tacitly handed an alarming green light to pursue their nuclear ambitions with impunity. The bleak reality is that time is rapidly running out for concerted action to stop Iran's march towards acquiring nuclear weapons capability. The Biden administration's response, however, has been marked by silence, massive funding of Iran and a conspicuous absence of intervention.

The latest reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) paint a chilling picture of Iran's unchecked nuclear advancement. Despite mounting concerns worldwide, Tehran has brazenly obstructed IAEA inspectors, thereby thwarting any meaningful oversight of its nuclear facilities. The agency's quarterly report underscores Iran's nightmarish progress, which include stockpiles of enriched uranium surging to levels of up to 84% purity, perilously close to the coveted weapons-grade threshold of 90%.

According to the latest data from the IAEA, Iran potentially possesses sufficient material to construct many atomic bombs. With each passing day, Iran edges closer to possessing the capability to produce nuclear weapons on a scale that could destabilize not just the region, but beyond.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA, has sounded the alarm over the loss of vital intelligence regarding Iran's centrifuges:
The Agency has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to [the Iranian regime's] production and inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate.

The opacity surrounding Iran's nuclear program leaves the international community vulnerable and in the dark.

According to the Institute for Science and International Security, a long-standing observer of Iran's nuclear endeavors, the country possesses the capability to enrich uranium for the production of up to 13 nuclear weapons, with the potential for seven more to be manufactured within the initial month of a breakout. The Institute adds that recent findings indicate a disquieting escalation; they note that Iran's capacity for producing weapons-grade uranium has increased both in volume and speed just since the last IAEA report in November 2023, not even half a year ago.

The Institute also underscores that Iran's combined reserves of enriched uranium and centrifuge infrastructure are substantial enough to yield the equivalent of 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium, enabling the production of seven nuclear weapons within one month, nine within two months, eleven within three months, and ultimately reaching a maximum of 12-13 within four-to-five months.

Despite the glaring imperative for the robust enforcement of economic sanctions to choke off Iran's financial lifelines, the Biden administration's approach has been desperately misguided. Instead of wielding economic leverage to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear aspirations, the Biden administration has continued to inject billions of dollars into the regime's coffers, fueling the very program it was purportedly seeking to curtail.

The need for urgent measures to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions cannot be overstated. It is crucial to explore all available avenues -- yes, all -- such as targeted strikes on Iran's oil and nuclear infrastructure to forestall the emergence of an Iran armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons and the will -- at least -- to threaten with them. The window to halt the development of Iran's nuclear weapons arsenal is rapidly closing: the prospect of the world's "leading sponsor of state terrorism" armed with nuclear weapons demands serious and immediate action.

In the face of Iran's nuclear advancement and defiance of international norms, the Biden administration's policy of capitulation is not only misguided but also perilously reckless. The time for diplomatic platitudes and half-hearted gestures has long passed. What is required now is a resolute, united response that sends an unequivocal message to Tehran: the international community will not tolerate the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the hands of rogue regimes.

On the Biden administration's watch, Iran's mullahs appear to have been granted carte blanche to pursue nuclear capabilities. Despite Tehran's continued defiance of international oversight, and more than 150 Iran-backed attacks on US troops and assets in the region just since October, and the escalation of its nuclear program, the administration's silence is, to say the least, both disconcerting and dangerous.

The clock is ticking towards a nuclear tipping point. Iran now controls four countries in the region in addition to its own -- Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. With nuclear weapons, Iran will be able to "export the Revolution" with ease. It will not even have to use its nuclear arsenal; just the threat of a nuclear attack should be enough to deter push-back and secure capitulation. The regime is already establishing footholds in Latin America -- Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua -- from where it will be able to threaten "the Big Satan," the United States.

The specter of a nuclear-armed Iran threatens to shatter even further the stability of the Middle East, Europe and the United States. It is essential to confront the nuclear threat from Iran with haste.

TOPICS:​

BIDEN ADMINISTRATIONIRÁN
 
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www.newsx.com

India Bolsters Nuclear Deterrence With Advanced Missile Tests And Submarine Capabilities

he Agni-IV and Agni-V systems, including advanced rocket motors, avionics, and navigation systems. - Newsx
www.newsx.com www.newsx.com

India Bolsters Nuclear Deterrence With Advanced Missile Tests And Submarine Capabilities​

The Agni-IV and Agni-V systems, including advanced rocket motors, avionics, and navigation systems.​

  • Edited By: Isha Gautam
  • Updated on: April 5, 2024, 2:40 pm IST
India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC), also known as the Strategic Nuclear Command, is undergoing a significant overhaul with the introduction of new missile technologies. In its latest move, India successfully tested the new-generation Agni-Prime ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers, aimed at countering potential threats from neighboring Pakistan.

The geopolitical dynamics in the region are nuanced, with China adhering to a No First Use (NFU) policy but with exceptions, particularly concerning its territorial integrity. On the other hand, Pakistan maintains a first-use doctrine, indicating readiness to employ nuclear weapons preemptively.

The Agni-V, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, is another development with China in mind. With a striking range of 5,000 kilometers, this indigenously developed missile enhances India’s strategic capabilities significantly.

The recent test of the Agni-Prime missile, replacing the older Agni-II with its 700-kilometer range, is a step towards modernizing India’s missile arsenal. The Agni-P is a shorter-range missile but incorporates advanced technologies from the Agni-IV and Agni-V systems, including advanced rocket motors, avionics, and navigation systems.

A notable feature of the Agni-P is its canister launch technology, which ensures swift deployment and firing, requiring less maintenance. This technology, initially tested on the Agni-V in 2015, enhances the missile’s mobility and reliability, crucial for India’s strategic posture.

India’s pursuit of technological advancements is evident in its efforts to upgrade older missile systems with more sophisticated technologies. The integration of MIRV technology into the Agni-V enhances its effectiveness by allowing multiple warheads to be independently targeted, thus improving its deterrence capabilities.

The Agni-V, nicknamed ‘Divyastra’ with its MIRV technology, represents a significant leap in India’s missile capabilities. This technology, which can potentially be adapted to other missiles in India’s inventory, ensures a more flexible deterrence strategy against potential adversaries.

India’s pursuit of a robust nuclear triad, comprising land-based, air-based, and sea-based delivery systems, is essential for maintaining a credible nuclear deterrence. The successful development and deployment of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) further enhance India’s strategic capabilities.

The Third Leg Of India’s Nuclear Triad​

The ‘K’ family of SLBMs, including the K-4 and K-15 missiles, developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), are integral to India’s nuclear triad. These missiles, designed for deployment from indigenous nuclear-powered submarines like INS Arihant, significantly enhance India’s second-strike capability.

The development of SLBMs, such as the K-4 with a range of 3,500 kilometers, and ongoing efforts towards the K-5 and K-6 with ranges of 5,000 to 6,000 kilometers, illustrate India’s commitment to achieving a robust nuclear triad.

India’s strategic focus on modernizing its missile technologies, incorporating MIRV capabilities, and enhancing its submarine-launched ballistic missile program signifies its commitment to maintaining a credible nuclear deterrence posture. These advancements not only strengthen India’s defense capabilities but also contribute to regional stability and security.
 
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jward said:
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

BREAKING:

Canada announces it’s considering joining the AUKUS alliance (USA, UK & Australia) & buy nuclear submarines with under-ice capabilities to patrol its Arctic coastline

Trudeau says it will become particularly important as trade via the Northwest Passage will increase
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1777464969937731908
View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1777464969937731908
Click to expand...

The diesel electric boast tehy bought from the UK weren't well stored prior to transfer and they have been nothing but maintenance hogs since the Canadians got them. Besides SSNs would give the Canadians a level of operational flexabilty they really need.
 
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UK’s nuclear deterrent ‘bedrock’ of Labour’s plan to keep Britain safe – Starmer​

Story by Rhiannon James, PA Political Staff
• 10h • 4 min read

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK’s nuclear deterrent is the “bedrock” of his plan to keep Britain safe.

If elected, Labour said it will use defence procurement to strengthen UK security and economic growth.

The party hopes to direct British defence investment to British business first, with a higher bar set for any decisions to buy abroad.

In an interview with the i newspaper, Sir Keir confirmed his ambition was to boost the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP, if it fits with Labour’s fiscal rules.

During a visit to Barrow, where nuclear submarines are being built, Sir Keir is expected to focus on increasing jobs and skills in defence.

Alongside shadow defence minister John Healey and Australian high commissioner to the UK Stephen Smith, Sir Keir will speak to workers, union members and apprentices at the Barrow shipyard.

He is also expected use the visit on Friday to affirm Labour’s commitment to the Aukus security pact.

Sir Keir said: “The changed Labour Party I lead knows that our nation’s defence must always come first. Labour’s commitment to our nuclear deterrent is total.

“In the face of rising global threats and growing Russian aggression, the UK’s nuclear deterrent is the bedrock of Labour’s plan to keep Britain safe. It will ensure vital protection for the UK and our Nato allies in the years ahead, as well as supporting thousands of high paying jobs across the UK.

“Countless families in Barrow and across Britain have built a secure future over decades of hard work building our defences. I want that to continue for the decades to come.

“That’s why we are fully backing Aukus submarines to be built in Barrow, too. And it’s why Labour will ensure that new UK leadership within Aukus helps make this national endeavour a success for Britain.”

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps branded the visit an “attempted distraction from the Angela Rayner scandal”.

Meanwhile, the SNP has branded the proposals “grotesque” and accused Labour of throwing billions of pounds down the drain.

Labour said it is set to campaign on its commitment to the nuclear deterrent in key communities in the nuclear supply chain, such as: Plymouth Moor View, home to the Devonport shipyard; Filton and Bradley Stoke, home of Abbey Wood; Derby North and South, home to Rolls-Royce’s Raynesway site; and Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber, home to HMNB Clyde.

Mr Healey said: “Pride is the overwhelming feeling of defence industry workers, especially those in Barrow building our vital nuclear submarines. They are essential in securing Britain’s defences for the future.

“A strong defence industrial strategy will be hardwired into Labour’s Mission 1 in Government to drive economic growth across the UK. We will make it fundamental to direct defence investment first to British jobs and British industry.”

In March, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited BAE Systems Submarines in Barrow-in-Furness with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, after declaring a “critical national endeavour” to secure the nuclear industry’s future.

Mr Shapps said: “Sir Keir Starmer and John Healey tried twice to put Jeremy Corbyn in charge of the nation’s armed forces.

“The same man who wanted to scrap our nuclear deterrent, dismantle Nato and questioned the integrity of British Intelligence community.


“Labour’s shadow foreign secretary even voted repeatedly to scrap Trident. They are not the party to be trusted with our nation’s defences.

“Only Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives can be trusted to protect our nuclear deterrent and stick to the plan to work with our Aukus allies to build the world’s most advanced nuclear submarines which will create thousands of jobs for people across the country and build a more secure world.

“This is just another attempted distraction from the Angela Rayner scandal. If Sir Keir Starmer cannot show leadership on this issue, how can he be trusted to make decision on national security.”

SNP defence spokesperson Martin Docherty-Hughes MP said: “Westminster has already wasted billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money on nuclear weapons and expensive nuclear energy.

“It is therefore grotesque that Sir Keir Starmer is prepared to throw billions more down the drain when his party claim there is no money to improve our NHS, help families with the cost of living or to properly invest in our green energy future.


“This money would be better spent on a raft of other things – not least investing in the green energy gold rush, which would ensure Scotland, with all its renewable energy potential, could be a green energy powerhouse of the 21st century.

“And while the UK Government wastes millions misfiring Trident missiles at the Defence Secretary, the urgent priority is more money for conventional defence and for our armed forces, who are underpaid and under-resourced.

“With both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer focused on the wrong priorities, it is only the SNP standing up for Scotland’s interests and Scotland’s values.”

Kate Hudson, general secretary of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, said voters are “desperately looking for hope from the Labour Party.

“However, it’s increasingly clear that Starmer’s offer is just more of the same: billions of pounds wasted on nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and a belligerent foreign policy that includes support for the Aukus pact, Nato, and continuing arms sales to Israel, used to kill Palestinians.

“Putting billions of pounds into the pockets of arms companies and their investors will not reinvigorate the economy in any meaningful way.”
 
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breakingdefense.com

Implementation plan for defense industrial strategy to be ready this summer: DoD official - Breaking Defense

"We are working on it literally as we speak," said Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com

Implementation plan for defense industrial strategy to be ready this summer: DoD official​

"We are working on it literally as we speak," said Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy.​

By VALERIE INSINNA on April 10, 2024 at 5:06 PM

SEA AIR SPACE 2024 — The Pentagon is aiming to complete an implementation plan for its first-ever defense industrial base strategy this summer, a senior Defense Department official said today.

“The implementation plan will be a living document. We are working on it literally as we speak, and I suspect that it will be completed at some point later this summer,” Laura Taylor-Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy, said during a speech at the Sea Air Space conference.

The Pentagon rolled out the 55-page Defense Industrial Strategy in January, which called for improvements in areas like supply chain and workforce development that can enable defense companies to more rapidly boost weapons production during wartime.

Although the strategy laid out key actions the department should take — such as making investments in weapons capacity and increasing purchases of off-the-shelf equipment — it was released without a detailed implementation blueprint. At the time, officials estimated the implementation guidance would be ready by February or March.

“My team continues to move forward with the industrial strategy by engaging internal, interagency, industry and international stakeholders while simultaneously developing an actionable classified implementation plan,” Taylor-Kale said today, adding that the Pentagon will likely issue an unclassified summary of the plan once the classified version has been approved by leadership.

Industry organizations have been broadly supportive of the defense industrial strategy, but say the Pentagon needs to be willing to make the financial investments necessary to achieve its goals.

In its “Vital Signs” report released last week, the National Defense Industrial Association said the strategy clearly identifies the challenges facing defense firms, but it “will require time, resources, a shared understanding of managing risk, and disciplined alignment between government and industry” to achieve the goals of the strategy.

“The biggest challenge for the 2023 NDIS is its silence on the specific additional resources required to implement the actions defined in the strategy,” the report states.

Latest from Breaking Defense​


Aussie PM must improve AUKUS explanation for public, reassess US relations, experts warn​


Norway to host US Space Development Agency RF antenna, new Link 16 test: SDA director​


Where to find the sights and sounds of Sea Air Space 2024​


Space Force awards contracts for Victus Haze rapid launch mission​

 
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Britain developing new, sovereign nuclear warhead​



The United Kingdom has confirmed that it is developing a replacement UK sovereign nuclear warhead for its Trident missiles.​

The Ministry of Defence says in the ‘Defence Nuclear Enterprise Command Paper’ that “Replacing the UK’s warhead will ensure the UK’s deterrent remains cutting-edge, safe and effective”.

In the paper released today, they state:
“The UK committed to replacing our sovereign warhead in parliament in February 2021. Using modern and innovative developments in science, engineering, manufacturing and production at AWE, we will ensure the UK maintains an effective deterrent for as long as required.

The Replacement Warhead Programme has been designated the A21/Mk7 (also known as Astraea). It is being delivered in parallel with the US W93/Mk7 warhead and each nation is developing a sovereign design. This will be the first UK warhead developed in an era where we no longer test our weapons underground, upholding our voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon test explosions.

This is possible because of the long history of technical expertise and extensive investment in UK modelling and simulation, supercomputing, materials science, shock and laser physics at AWE. Replacing the UK warhead is a long-term programme, driving modernisation and construction at AWE, HMNB Clyde and the hydrodynamics facility at EPURE, in France.”

For those unaware, the Trident II D5 missile is manufactured in the US. It comprises the missiles and supporting systems fitted on the submarine as well as training and shore support equipment.
Under the agreement with the United States, the UK accesses a shared missile pool.
Missiles are loaded into our submarines in Kings Bay, Georgia, US. The UK-manufactured
warheads are mated to the missiles at HMNB Clyde.

How will it be tested?​

Well, the paper covers that too, stating:
“We have developed unique and world‑leading technology to validate the UK’s warhead stockpile. The Orion laser helps our physicists and scientists research the physics of those extreme temperatures and pressures found in a nuclear explosion to better understand the safety, reliability and performance of nuclear warheads. Orion is used collaboratively with UK academia and US teams in their National Laboratories.

Supercomputing is also a crucial capability, enabling simulations that allow us to develop a safe, assured warhead without detonation. AWE has recently commissioned a supercomputer named Valiant, one of the most powerful computers in the UK, to validate the design, performance and reliability of our nuclear warhead. These facilities will be used to bring our next warhead into service, upholding our voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapons test explosions.”
ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Britain developing new, sovereign nuclear warhead

The United Kingdom has confirmed that it is developing a replacement UK sovereign nuclear warhead for its Trident missiles.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk ukdefencejournal.org.uk
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
Robots are changing the U.S. Army's tactics.

The Army is considering a plan to add a platoon of robots, the equivalent of 20 to 50 human soldiers, to its armored brigade combat teams, which are the service’s bread-and-butter, tank-backed infantry units.

Here's how the tactical change might happen. The U.S. Army might have three platoons deployed in a basic attack:
• one to fix the enemy in place
• another to maneuver on them
• one more in reserve.

And in the Army's tests of human-machine teams in the California desert in early 2024, soldiers are finding that if you put robots into that group of soldiers, and they suddenly have much more room to maneuver.

“Then you have basically three platoons entirely freed up,” Army Lt. Isaac McCurdy said. “And it also draws far more enemy attention to those harder targets of the robots. It protects you, frees you up, gives you more flexibility, and weakens up all other fronts of the enemy’s defenses.”

Word of warning (⚠️): That might not be true on every battlefield.

Like everything here, Project Convergence is an experiment. It’s hard to stop a robot from rolling along Fort Irwin’s sand and volcanic rock, which has plenty of traction for the Army’s Small Multipurpose Equipment Transports to move freely across.

Soldiers haven’t shot any real live ammo at the robots—yet. A well-placed shot to the sensor might render a ground robot functionally useless. And robots might turn into expensive icicles at the British military’s largest training ground in the hostile winters of the Canadian province of Alberta.

Drones are already ubiquitous—you can buy a quadcopter off the shelf for about $50 at most big-box stores—but building ground robots that can see and sense their way through modern battlefields is much harder.

But the entire field of military robotics is speeding up.

Army officials don’t think that robots will replace humans—or that they will do much to solve the problem of recruiting shortfalls—but they’re working on the math to get the ratio of humans to robots to about 2-to-1 or 3-to-1.

The point is to get the advantage before China or Russia do.

“We don’t want it to be even,” said Lt. Gen. John Morrison, the principal advisor to the Army’s chief of staff for network and cybersecurity. “We want it to be a technical overmatch.”

PHOTO: SPC. SAMARION HICKS/U.S. ARMY
 
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Deterring an Emerging Nuclear Axis in Northeast Asia - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea

Amid an increasingly unstable international order, Moscow wielded its veto on March 28, blocking the annual renewal of the United…
www.38north.org

Deterring an Emerging Nuclear Axis in Northeast Asia​


Amid an increasingly unstable international order, Moscow wielded its veto on March 28, blocking the annual renewal of the United Nations (UN) Security Council’s 1718 Committee Panel of Experts. Russia’s act overturned 15 years of continuity by the Panel to monitor and ensure implementation of UN Security Council sanctions in response to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK or North Korea) nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Equally unsettling was China’s first-ever abstention from the annual vote to extend the work of the panel. Prior to this diplomatic blockade, the Panel had enjoyed unanimous support for 14 years since its establishment in 2009 under UN Security Council Resolution 1874. The contrarian move by Russia and China undermines international efforts to restrain North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal while accelerating prospects for regional instability.

The shutdown of the Panel, whose work will be sunset in late April, is a disturbing manifestation of the effects China, Russia and North Korea can produce working in tandem toward a strategic goal. To be clear, the coordinated move by the three countries should not be construed as an ephemeral act of protest or obstruction; rather, it signifies what has become a hard strategic reset in Northeast Asia that has been gaining rapid momentum since 2022. This rebooted configuration has cascaded an opportunity for North Korea, the junior partner in the arrangement, to reevaluate its risk assessment matrix, resulting in Pyongyang’s decision to also reset its attention and resources. The result, in the broader geopolitical context, presents the US, and by extension, the US-Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) alliance, with a gargantuan strategic predicament. To maintain effective deterrence capabilities amid the regional realignment, the US should actively evolve and bolster existing security frameworks while anticipating and adjusting to changing geopolitical conditions.

Hard Reset

The latest episode of strategic solidarity on display at the UN Security Council is further evidence of the calculated alignment that has been building in strength among North Korea, China, and Russia since 2022. Beijing and Moscow officially embarked on a revisionist path regarding North Korea in May that year, when the two countries vetoed a proposed US-led resolution to impose additional UN Security Council sanctions on Pyongyang following missile launches. This was the first veto by either country since the punitive sanctions against North Korea began in 2006. China and Russia continued this trend, opposing UN Security Council collective measures to condemn North Korea’s attempts to launch a spy satellite in May and August 2023.

North Korea has basked in Chinese and Russian support, launching an unprecedented 69 ballistic missiles in 2022, the year marking Beijing and Moscow’s split from the international sanctions regime. Pyongyang has reciprocated by positioning the DPRK as an arms supplier to Russia’s war with Ukraine. The US State Department estimates North Korea has delivered over 10,000 containers filled with munitions and related supplies to Russia since September 2023. Among the weapons deliveries, Russia has received North Korean-provided ballistic missiles, the use of which stands to give Pyongyang invaluable technical data and insights through direct battlefield testing.

Pyongyang’s New Emboldened Approach

The increased support from China and Russia has emboldened North Korea, leading Pyongyang to reassess its strategic approach and realign its foreign policy priorities and resources. There are two demonstrable pieces of evidence for this. In September 2022, after China and Russia vetoed US-led attempts to add sanctions against North Korea for its missile launches, Pyongyang adopted a law enshrining new, offensively oriented nuclear doctrine. The new doctrine superseded a previous law enacted in 2013 centered on the defensive use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine updated in September 2022 insinuates preemptive employment of nuclear weapons using tactical warheads to advance battlefield objectives.

In addition to upgrading its nuclear doctrine to an offensive posture, North Korea has decisively abandoned bilateral talks with the US and inter-Korean diplomacy. The shift began in 2020 when Pyongyang announced that Washington had deceived North Korea and wasted 18 months of its time negotiating with the Donald Trump administration. In June of that year, North Korea announced the severing of all contacts with the South, whom it would subsequently regard as the “enemy.” North Korea continued to rebuff early attempts by the Biden administration to engage, maintaining its stance of rejecting US offers of dialogue. In January 2024, Kim Jong Un announced a formal policy shift, directing a revision to the DPRK’s constitution to remove references to “peaceful reunification” and define the South as the “principal enemy.” The order included codifying a commitment to subjugate and annex the ROK in the event of a new outbreak of war.

Nuclear Asymmetry

By itself, North Korea now has the theoretical capacity to attempt to simultaneously deter the US with ICBMs—a capability Pyongyang continues to refine through continued missile and satellite launches—while compelling South Korea with shorter-range ballistic missiles and tactical nuclear weapons. All that is missing is a transformative change in the international order capable of creating a disruption to the US-ROK alliance—a strategic inflection point that would alter the status quo of international relations. This is where China and Russia come in. Together, the three nuclear-armed countries produce an asymmetric nuclear capability—strategic depth creating a potentially dominant position in a tit-for-tat escalation spiral—that could stretch US hub and spoke extended deterrence commitments with the ROK and Japan.

The three countries not only share common borders, but they also share the same objective of reshaping the international system, which they bitterly complain is dominated by Western rules and values and rigged in favor of the US and its allies. The current China-Russia-DPRK trajectory, particularly as evidenced by Russia’s Panel of Experts veto at the UN Security Council and the Chinese abstention, indicates that coordinated operations to undermine the status quo in Northeast Asia are already well underway. If precedence is a gauge of future actions, then the patterns of Pyongyang’s past are likely to be replicated in the decisions to come. Thus, one can logically expect North Korea to assiduously work to undermine the Armistice Agreement and the US-ROK alliance as well.

Dynamic and Pragmatic Deterrence

In order not to cede strategic ground in the face of a shifting balance of power, the US should continue to actively evolve and enhance existing security frameworks while realistically anticipating and effectively adjusting to the rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.

First, in practical terms, gone are the days of North Korea being willing to sign onto “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” of its nuclear program. When Pyongyang was in the building stage of its nuclear program, talks with the US were useful since Pyongyang could use parts of its nuclear weapons program as collateral for concessions. But, North Korea has already transitioned from the research and development phase of its WMD development to fielding and deployment. Moreover, without cooperation on sanctions implementation from Russia and China, Pyongyang can get more of what it wants without the time-consuming efforts of “engaging the enemy” to get sanctions lifted. Instead, that diplomatic energy will, in the near term, be focused on enhancing and balancing relations with Beijing and Moscow, where tangible benefits can be negotiated with little risk and quick results.

Second, Washington should continue to study and understand the potential South Korean pursuit of nuclear parity did not simply die with the signing of the Washington Declaration. This is not an endorsement of South Korean development of indigenous nuclear weapons, as there are obvious downsides—namely, igniting an arms race involving Japan, further eroding the rules-based order through the delegitimization of liberal mechanisms and institutions like the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The point is, polls show that the majority of South Koreans, regardless of political affiliation, are currently in favor of having their own nuclear weapons. While South Korea has, for now, reiterated its commitment to uphold its NPT obligations, this domestic consideration could still evolve into an unavoidable demand for all electable South Korean political leaders to deal with in the next ROK election.

In the meantime, to balance against a strengthening China-Russia-North Korea axis without escalating tensions, further institutionalization and operationalization of both the US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and the US-ROK-Japan trilateral framework will be required. Much progress has been made with both lines of effort, as evidenced by the two NCG meetings held in 2023, which helped deepen deterrence cooperation and by the establishment of a multi-year trilateral exercise plan. More work will be required to consolidate and lock in the gains made and ensure continued momentum with these efforts, particularly for ensuring trilateral framework momentum that can withstand potential future political transitions in any of the three capitals. To safeguard against the ebb and flow of regional political currents, burgeoning processes for DPRK missile warning data sharing, multi-domain exercise planning, integrated missile defense, and other forms of information sharing should be honed and institutionalized down to the deepest actionable levels within the trilateral framework.

As the activities of the Panel of Experts draw to a close in late April, the implications of the strategic alignment among China, Russia, and North Korea will become even more pronounced. The emerging China-Russia-DPRK axis is not merely a transient gesture of defiance or disruption; it is indicative of a profound strategic shift in the geopolitical context of Northeast Asia. With this shift, North Korea has seized the chance to overhaul its strategic calculations, re-channeling its focus and resources. Such developments pose a colossal challenge to the US and the US-ROK alliance’s strategic position. To maintain a successful deterrent posture, the US should not only sustain progress with existing security mechanisms like the NCG and trilateral framework, but also stay ahead of the curve by pragmatically adjusting to rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.
 
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INTL - "Israel is in an all-out war. " MAJOR Palestinian Ground Incursion From Gaza Into Israel Ongoing. Hundreds Killed. (Please watch for dups #1881)

The fact is that going back the Bush Jr, with the amount of arms and aid Tehran was giving the "resistance" in Iraq, the US should have hammered them back then and we wouldn't be having these problems now. If memory serves Carter started this. He thought giving nuclear secrets to them for...
www.timebomb2000.com www.timebomb2000.com


jward​

passin' thru​

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

Anti-Israel protester Riddhi Patel arrested after threatening to murder Bakersfield City Council members.

“We will come to your homes”
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Iran International English
@IranIntl_En

The Biden administration has, for the first time, refused to renew a series of sanctions waivers that permitted Iran and Russia to cooperate on nuclear work at Iranian enrichment sites. The waivers, which were last renewed in August 2023, expired at the beginning of 2024, @FreeBeacon reported.

They provided up to $10 billion in profit for Russian-state controlled firms for work at Iran's various nuclear plants.
The Obama admin. issued waivers permitting Iran and Russia, as well as China and European countries, to build out parts of Tehran's nuclear program as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The Trump admin. scrapped the waivers in 2019 and 2020 after leaving the JCPOA but Biden restored the waivers, the report said.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778917016130253011
View: https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1778917016130253011
 
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