CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

patriotgal

patriotgal

Veteran Member
Countrymouse said:
Northern Watch---I don't know how to post a twitter video, but this is the same guy who earlier had the video of the hysterical nurse crying because they are so overwhelmed and exhausted in the hospitals--and OUT of supplies, medicines, any support at all.

This same guy has several videos of MORE of the "exotic" food choices of the Chinese--and it SHOWS a man EATING LIVE BABY MICE (a bowlful of them crawling around is visible on the table)--he picks up a squirming baby mouse with his chopsticks, dips it in a sauce--and plops the still-squirming live mouse in his mouth!

Even if it was an experimental sample of the virus which escaped from a lab, such eating habits and total lack of and considerations of food hygiene would make the population an EASY mark....


Do you know HOW to post these other Twitter videos? Because I have no idea how to do that.
Click to expand...
Saw the video of they guy eating the baby mice. Yuck!!! Of course, this is a country said to eat their young...
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Countrymouse said:
Northern Watch---I don't know how to post a twitter video, but this is the same guy who earlier had the video of the hysterical nurse crying because they are so overwhelmed and exhausted in the hospitals--and OUT of supplies, medicines, any support at all.

This same guy has several videos of MORE of the "exotic" food choices of the Chinese--and it SHOWS a man EATING LIVE BABY MICE (a bowlful of them crawling around is visible on the table)--he picks up a squirming baby mouse with his chopsticks, dips it in a sauce--and plops the still-squirming live mouse in his mouth!

Even if it was an experimental sample of the virus which escaped from a lab, such eating habits and total lack of and considerations of food hygiene would make the population an EASY mark....


Do you know HOW to post these other Twitter videos? Because I have no idea how to do that.
Click to expand...

Countrymouse,

Yes I know how to post a video, I sent you a message explaining how to do it.
If you did not receive it, let me know

NW
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
BNO Newsroom‏Verified account @BNODesk 40s40 seconds ago

Coronavirus timeline: - Wed.: 232 new cases, 11 deaths - Thur.: 111 new cases, 1 death - Fri.: 467 new cases, 16 deaths - Sat.: 631 new cases, 14 deaths - Sun.: 731 new cases, 25 deaths * Based on the day they were reported, not the day of diagnosis, using GMT
 
D

Dr. G

Senior Member
2DEES said:
I think you are wrong.

You are wrong sir! www.healthline.com/health/ph-of-blood#takeaway has some interesting observations concerning BLOOD PH. Blood is 85 % water and drinking alkaline water will change the ph higher. I never said you could change it to 10 or11, that's impossible but you can raise it from acidic to alkaline-food, disease and water do this all the time. The acidity you see changed in the urine comes from where? Let me see, maybe it's magic and doesn't come from a very complicated removal by the kidneys.
Click to expand...

This is NOT worth a thread drift, however what you think on the subject is irrelevant, blood pH range is 7.35 - 7.45 ANYTHING above or below that...as I said, you have problems. That's basic Biochemistry 101.

Healthline.com...seriously that your reference...ok here read this from them if you want to use them: The Alkaline Diet
From the article, "When your blood pH falls out of the normal range, it can be fatal if left untreated" ( gee that sounds familiar).
"In fact, it’s nearly impossible for food to change the pH value of blood in healthy people, although tiny fluctuations can occur within the normal range" (also sounds familiar)
"However, food can change the pH value of your urine — though the effect is somewhat variable (1Trusted Source, 8Trusted Source)." (where did I hear that before)
Stop believing the marketing crap, some people are selling. Now you want to drink alkaline water to have buffering agents, ok do it, but it will only be to maintain your pH of 7.35-7.45. End of story, end of thread drift.
 
thompson

thompson

Certa Bonum Certamen
Haven't seen this bit of news posted but doesn't mean it hasn't been. If a dup, please excuse..

www.theeagle.com

Texas A&M student does not have coronavirus, health officials say

The student recently traveled to Wuhan, China, where the deadly virus originated.
www.theeagle.com www.theeagle.com

Texas A&M student does not have coronavirus, health officials say

Julián Aguilar
5 hrs ago

A resident of Brazos County who was tested for coronavirus after returning to Texas from China is not afflicted with the same deadly strain that has killed dozens of people, health officials said Sunday.

“The Brazos County Health District has received the results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the suspected case of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus,” Sara Mendez, Brazos County Health District health promotion manager, said in a brief statement. “The results are negative for 2019-nCoV.”

The Texas A&M University student recently traveled to Wuhan, China, where the deadly virus originated, health officials said last week. A student at Baylor University in Waco is also being tested after traveling to China but health officials haven't received those results, said Kelly Craine, a spokeswoman with the Waco-McLennan County Public Health District.

As of Sunday afternoon, 56 people who have contracted the illness have died, the New York Times reported. The deaths have been confined to China but health officials in several other countries have confirmed cases, including five in the United States.

The confirmed cases in the United States are in Arizona, California, Illinois and Washington state. More cases are expected but U.S. health officials said risk to the general public remains low, the New York Times reported.
 
Scarletbreasted

Scarletbreasted

Galloping geriatric
This is possibly the best analysis of the situation I have seen to date! (C/o PROMED link below)

PRO/AH/EDR> NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (19): CHINA (HUBEI) TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
***********************************************************************

In this post:
[1] 2019-nCoV transmission dynamics [letter]
[2] Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
[3] 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

****
[1] Novel 2019 coronavirus transmission dynamics

Date: 26 January 2020
From: David Fisman, MD MPH [edited]

I wish to offer the following observations on the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV in Hubei Province, China, over the past few weeks. I hope that the thoughts below will be helpful to others trying to organize and interpret the flood of information that has emerged about this new pathogen.

Information from a variety of sources suggests that this novel virus is a recombinant beta-coronavirus of animal origin that emerged in November or December 2019, likely at the Wuhan Seafood Market. Epidemiological analysis was initiated after recognition of a market-linked pneumonia cluster in late December. Notwithstanding the name of the "Wuhan Seafood Market", the market sells large numbers of live animals, including wild animals, which are kept in close proximity to one another, perhaps facilitating viral recombination. Similar disrupted ecology contributed to the emergence of SARS.

The emergence of many cases of a novel, animal-derived pathogen in a live animal market, over a short time period was suggestive of a point source outbreak with animal-to-human spread, and I'll assume that the initial cluster of approximately 40 cases was largely a result of such transmission, with little human-to-human transmission. However, on January 23, 2020, the WHO released the report of its IHR Emergency Committee for nCoV; the report noted that "fourth generation transmission" was occurring, and cited internal analyses placing the basic reproduction number (R0) at between 1.4 and 2.5; this report noted that 557 cases (which I'll round up to 600 cases) had been confirmed as of January 22, 2020 (ref.1). Several estimates of R0 appeared from independent groups around the same time; these estimates were remarkable in their consistency, ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 (refs.2-7).

Such consistency despite limited data availability and disparate methods employed for estimation provides a degree of face validity to these estimates. I note that these estimates are likely skewed upwards by the greater recognition of larger case clusters and super-spreader events (there has been at least one 14-case cluster in a hospital), and also by the possibility that later cases are being recognized more completely than earlier cases, all of which would have the tendency of biasing R0 estimates upwards. I'll assume that the lower bound R0 (around 2) is probably about right, and also note that this is consistent with estimates from SARS coronavirus, which shares substantial genetic similarity with nCoV.

What would be the implications of a disease with R0 ~ 2, with four generations of transmission over a period of around a month? This timeline would be consistent with growth in the number of recognized cases from 40 to 600 during that time interval. If nCoV has a generation time of approximately 10 days (similar to that described for SARS), we would have expected the initial 40 cases from late December to cause 80 secondary cases in early January (120 total cases); these 80 cases would create 160 incident cases around mid-January (280 total cases), which would in turn create another 320 cases around January 22 (600 total cases).

These numbers fit very nicely to case data available as of January 22, 2020, but unfortunately, they are wrong. The abrupt surge in confirmed case counts (to 1423 cases as of January 26, 2020) is not compatible with the growth process described above, certainly not with a SARS-compatible generation time of 6-10 days. Indeed, the authors of the MRC model (3) noted in one of their earlier reports that the volume of observed exported cases in countries outside China suggested a much larger underlying epidemic than had been reported at that time, and this epidemic may have begun a month prior to the recognition of the market-associated outbreak, consistent with the reported timing of viral emergence based on phylogenetic analyses (5). The authors of several analyses cited above have incorporated the MRC estimates of under-reporting in order to fit their models (2, 3, 5). A second line of evidence suggesting undercounting of cases relates to the older age of cases (median 59 years in early reports), and the even older age of fatal cases (averaging around 75 years in the first 17 deaths) as contrasted with a median age of 37 or 38 years in China. Increased age in cases as compared to the population as a whole suggests that younger (likely milder) cases have been under-reported. As such, it would seem likely that at least part of the sudden apparent growth in case counts does not reflect changes in transmission, but rather increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases.

Why is R0 so important? As R0 is proportional to duration of infectivity, reducing the infective period of cases would reduce the effective reproduction number. If the effective duration of infectivity is reduced by over 50% for a pathogen with R0 ~ 2, the average reproduction number would be reduced to less than 1, which should control viral spread over time. It is encouraging that one of the reports cited above suggests that the mean time from symptom onset to isolation has decreased from more than 6 days to less than 1 day as control measures have been implemented (6). Social distancing measures (like suspension of public gatherings and transportation) and reduced transmission per contact (e.g., through the use of personal protective items by healthcare workers) would also result in proportionate reductions in the reproduction number. Precise predictions in the face of substantial uncertainty are not appropriate, but given the large size of the epidemic as of the time of writing, some simple back-of-the-envelope math can demonstrate that large numbers of incident cases should be expected in the coming weeks, even in the face of effective control efforts. Successful control of this outbreak would be expected to take many months (again, as was the case with SARS).

While average estimates of R0 are helpful, it is also important to note that other beta-coronaviruses of public health importance (SARS, MERS) have been notable for the "overdispersion" of their reproductive numbers. Without getting too technical, this means that the average R0 is quite different from the variability in the R0. We actually have a distribution of R0 with a long "tail", which is a mathematical shorthand for superspreader events, where a case infects a large number of individuals. For example, there was at least one SARS superspreader who generated 76 downstream cases. However, with an overdispersed R0 many cases are "dead ends" and will not transmit. The three key insights here for the contour of this epidemic are:

1. It is the average R0 that determines whether, and how, the disease can be controlled. By analogy with SARS and MERS, with which nCoV seems to share many characteristics, the spread of this virus should be controllable.

2. Superspreader events are likely (and have already occurred) and are important to outbreak control efforts: they are demoralizing and dangerous to response personnel. They often occur in hospitals during aerosol-generating procedures like intubation. These events make it feel like the battle is being lost. They should be anticipated, and it is important to emphasize that their occurrence will represent a temporary setback which is likely to be overcome.

3. While superspreader events are unwelcome, their occurrence may, in fact, be a salutary sign for the control of this outbreak. An average R0 of, say, 2, with an overdispersed R0 means that many cases are also likely to be "dead ends" epidemiologically. Inasmuch as superspreader events may be more likely to be recognized due to their dramatic nature, an outbreak driven by superspreaders may be more likely to attract the control measures needed to disrupt transmission. By contrast, a more homogeneous outbreak, where each and every case has the potential to create a downstream cascade of cases in the absence of recognition, may be much more difficult to control.

As I note above, this outbreak is in its early weeks and understanding and knowledge will doubtless change. However, analysis of the cases counts, rate of growth of the epidemic, reproduction number estimates, and estimates of likely undercounting that have emerged over the past two weeks can provide a coherent view of the likely early dynamics of this outbreak, and also suggest what the contours of the outbreak may look like if control efforts are successful.

David N. Fisman, MD MPH FRCP(C)
Professor, Epidemiology
Dalla Lana School of Public Health
University of Toronto

Link: ProMED-mail
 
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Tristan

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Binkerthebear said:
Well that might just settle the “H2H confirmed in US” controversy. Seems obvious (could be wrong) that these 3 were among the 60 being screened because of their contact with the first US confirmed case in the Seattle area.
Click to expand...

It could just as easily be 3 students from Wuhan who are now showing symptoms. We won't know till we know.
 
homecanner1

homecanner1

Veteran Member
That wasn't my stat about "5 million have left Wuhan by train'. But it is possible that many train passengers have moved thru the station as its a massive rail hub with folk moving internally and transferring there to get home for Lunar New Year

Wuhan rail hub, everything you want to know. Wiki has updated their page re the travel suspension due to Corona Virus

en.wikipedia.org

Wuhan Railway Hub - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

"...The 2013 ridership of Wuhan Railway Hub has reached 120 million trips, making it the hub with the largest passenger volume, surpassing Beijing and Guangzhou. Wuhan suspended all public transportation from 10am on 23 January 2020 onwards, including all bus, metro, ferry lines, all outbound trains and flights due to the outbreak of 2019-nCoV. The Wuhan Railway Hub was then suspended..."

This would be like the FAA closing O'Hare or Atlanta and rerouting flights. They wouldn't be doing this over bat woo flu.

I think its absolutely real and some of these passengers could be weaponized tourists moving through the world as well.

Am rewatching that 'popeslap' video with the Asian woman with more skepticism now. Putting germs onto his ring/hand could have spread it to countless people over the Christmas masses. He was extra harsh so nobody try it again. Maybe he had advance intel? Or was trying to send the public a subtle warning about contact & to remain vigilant. Time to lockdown
 
Snyper

Snyper

Veteran Member
Binkerthebear said:
Question: BBC reports that head of China’s CDC says this virus is “not as strong or as dangerous as SARS.” Is that not a bald-faced lie ?
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Reports are not gospel and statements made are often opinions rather than fact.
Reality is they really don't know for sure, but that doesn't make good headlines.
 
Sid Vicious

Sid Vicious

Veteran Member
Tarryn said:
m.washingtontimes.com

Coronavirus link to China biowarfare program possible, analyst says

The deadly animal-borne coronavirus spreading globally may have originated in a laboratory in the city of Wuhan linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, said an Israeli biological warfare analyst.
m.washingtontimes.com m.washingtontimes.com
Click to expand...


Chinese researcher escorted from infectious disease lab amid RCMP investigation

I think the Chinese were playing around with some of the stuff they got from Canada. I think it got loose before it was fully weaponized.
 
Scarletbreasted

Scarletbreasted

Galloping geriatric
From memory, a year or so ago, some "Scientists" in Canada located some live Spanish Flu virus samples in the permafrost, and scuttled off to their level 5 lab (Not sure of level but 4 or 5) to "play" with their new toy!
I wonder if this was the attraction for this person?
sb
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
bev said:
Thank you to everyone who is contributing to this thread! You are doing an incredible job.

And thank you to Dennis for the new software that seems to be serving us so well right now.

:applaud:
Click to expand...

Absolutely agree 100 fold... And hope as this monster starts popping we can all kind of continue to divvy up the load, by becoming experts in their various areas. I know i would trust a TB2K poster who told me there were 54 cases and 122 under observation over hit and miss news reporters, for example. If that makes sense....?
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Snyper said:
Reports are not gospel and statements made are often opinions rather than fact.
Reality is they really don't know for sure, but that doesn't make good headlines.
Click to expand...

Its irresponsible reporting, I would think. Numbers and hard data take time to amass. Is an assessment based on facts possible at this point? Not certain, but do not believe so.
 
pops88

pops88

Girls with Guns Member
Scarletbreasted said:
From memory, a year or so ago, some "Scientists" in Canada located some live Spanish Flu virus samples in the permafrost, and scuttled off to their level 5 lab (Not sure of level but 4 or 5) to "play" with their new toy!
I wonder if this was the attraction for this person?
sb
Click to expand...

Forgot about that, and yes, both the U.S. and Canada were involved.

:hof:
 
Binkerthebear

Binkerthebear

Veteran Member
Snyper said:
Reports are not gospel and statements made are often opinions rather than fact.
Reality is they really don't know for sure, but that doesn't make good headlines.
Click to expand...
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing)
1/26/20, 9:18 PM
3) How is SARS most different from the new #coronavirus? SARS was never contagious when someone had no symptoms. But the new #WuhanCoronavirus **can be transmitted** even when no symptoms! The former US FDA Commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb confirms it.
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
www.statnews.com

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new #coronavirus circulating in #China.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
(fair use applies)

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell
January 26, 2020

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak — the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China — and infectious diseases experts who are parsing the first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic.

And the warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding three more cases, the country’s third, fourth, and fifth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveler from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County. The fifth case was diagnosed in Arizona and is a student at Arizona State University; the person had also traveled to Wuhan.

Confirmed infections within China climbed to nearly 2,750 and the death toll rose to 80.

China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country — which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus — was entering a “crucial stage.”

China’s actions — which include shutting off flights and trains from some affected cities and effectively putting tens of millions of people into quarantine — may not be enough to stop the virus, experts said.

“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced Sunday it is donating $10 million to the response to the virus. Half the money will be given to Chinese groups to help them in containment efforts. The other half will be given to the African Center for Disease Control to fund its efforts to help African countries prepare to have to cope with the new infection.

Also on Sunday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that he is traveling to Beijing to meet with Chinese authorities to offer support and to learn more about the outbreak.

The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.

This outbreak is caused by a virus — currently known as 2019-nCoV — that belongs to the same family as the viruses that caused the SARS outbreak and which cause sporadic flare-ups of cases of MERS on the Arabian Peninsula.

The SARS virus caused an explosive outbreak in late 2002 and early 2003, infecting more than 8,000 people around the globe and killing nearly 800 before it was contained. MERS has never caused a sustain global outbreak, though a number of large hospital-based outbreaks — including one in South Korea sparked by a businessman who contracted the virus in the Middle East — have been recorded.

One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak was the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms.

With some diseases, like influenza and measles, people who are infected but who are not yet feeling sick — people who are still going to work or school, taking public transit, shopping in malls, or going to movies — can pass the viruses to others.

Tools like quarantine and isolation — which were key to controlling SARS — are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

To date, at least 14 countries and territories outside of mainland China have reported nearly 60 cases. There have been no reports yet of unchecked spreading from those imported cases to others.

“In hours where I’m feeling optimistic I think about the fact that none of the other countries, including the U.S., have seen significant sustained chains of transmission,” Messonnier said. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s not coming.”

It also appears that the incubation time — the time from infection to the development of symptoms — may be a bit shorter than that of SARS, McGeer said, citing a paper published Friday that described transmission within a family in Hong Kong. With SARS, most people developed symptoms about four or five days after infection, she said.

A short incubation period gives health authorities less time to track down and quarantine people who have been exposed to the virus and who are en route to becoming infectious.

Scientists who have been studying the genetic sequences of viruses from China and a few other of the countries that have recorded cases have calculated what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak — the number of people, on average, that each case will infect.

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will peter out. But a number of groups have calculated a reproductive rate for this current outbreak — known by the term R-naught or R0 — in the range of 2 to 3 or beyond.

Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, suggested the estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.

“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be.

Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
 
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