Y2K 8 years late, so it begins...

[Clyde]

Y2K 8 years late, so it begins...

It strikes me, now that we are seeing things start to unfold on a global economic scale, that some of recent events hark back to economic preps against disruptions by the fed and greenspan. I remember the mass injections of liquididty prior to rollover, the massive amounts of money spent on remediation or new systems, incredibly risky and speculative ventures well funded. Opportunism, exploitation and indifference were the terms of the day. Wasn't it reported that the costs associated with Y2K by the government alone exceeded the cost of the Vietnam War and that this money created the bubble chain. Wasn't the War College Report somewhat accurate on the economic front except for the timeline?

So the question is...

How much do you think that the massive economic over reaction to Y2K has contributed to current state of affairs? How close are we to significant changes on the Y2K scale? Or, is this association far more diffuse than I am making it and even less significant?

ps. I'm prepped but I don't think I have adequately predicted the scale....

 

[libtoken]

It's an INDIRECT effect of preparations for the Y2K rollover, in my opinion.

Back in 1998, Bennett and Dodd cochaired a Senate hearing on the subject, where Bennett semi-joked that if nothing much happened at rollover, then the biggest impact of Y2K would be the driving of a recession (as companies would have made all their tech refresh purchases and be wanting to get some use out of their investment before buying again).

So we had Bennett's recession, especially in technology firms ((the tech wreck)). And as people's unwillingness to spend for personal property spread, investors looked for investment havens, and found it in the increased willingness of people (thanks to the rate cuts) to sign up to spend on homes. Welcome to another bubble that is now deflating.

As the housing ATM is mostly shut off now, consumer spending on what they don't have to have (even on what they normally would consider must-haves, such as health care and children's college fees) declines. We all have seen the recent ISM numbers. That is why some people are predicting an economic downturn worse than 2001 (and some of us recall all those vacant office buildings from then). Some high-end furniture shops already have gone to the wall. Will some big retail-store anchor chain be next?

And just recollect that the gold boom depends on being able to sell to the next person and make more than the cost of commissions. Just like 1980, and some of us recall how that ended.

 

[Cascadians]

I think all the money spent on code remediation was worth it. Portland was the best-publicized "Take Y2K Seriously" city and we still lost millions upon millions of dollars on a sewer snafu caused by bad code.

Plus, a lot of that money was upgrading systems and that helped safeguard info.

The Y2K plans have now morphed into Emergency Preparedness Plans prompted by Homeland Security funding.

Don't know how bad the economic upheaval will be. The housing bust is far more serious that the .dot .com bust. Nobody was living inside their web site. Everybody needs shelter.

But it was the stupid greedy misuse of credit that caused the housing problem, and rampant greed driving the prices to ridiculous heights. I still think this is a painful necessary correction.

The rest of the credit mess and overall fiscal irresponsibility and total harmful destructive spending by .gov is what will fell the beast of our weaknesses.

 

[mzkitty]

Clyde, who really knows? Events now are much more broad and all-encompassing than they were for Y2K. All you can do is prep as you see fit, and watch what's coming down as best you can. There is also a new thread in the BS you could check out.

 

[someone]

How much do you think that the massive economic over reaction to Y2K has contributed to current state of affairs? How close are we to significant changes on the Y2K scale? Or, is this association far more diffuse than I am making it and even less significant?

ps. I'm prepped but I don't think I have adequately predicted the scale....

mmm my answer is yes.

infomajic hit the nail on the head.

massive injection of liquidity in conjunction with massive capitol expeditures for upgrades in soft/hardware. everyone upgraded at the same time!!! there was a gap of 18 months where there was very little capitol expediture.

so we had a resession, which was scary to the boys on the hill. so they invented instant captiol expenditures with lower risk thresholds within the personal equity market to kick-start the economy with consumer spending.

for 4 years we lived off of equity and finacial instruments.

the equity is gone and the problem still remains

where is the $$$ going to come from if we don't produce anything?

nafta has killed us and mexico, SA, and soon europe.

i wish somebody would find infomajic's postings and paste them on this thread. it would be a good exercise to look at predictions made in 1998-9 and see how close the wacko came to reality.

the scale is overwhelming. the only way to prepare is to pray for the strength to endure.



death by a 1000 cuts

 

[Hansa44]

mmm my answer is yes.

infomajic hit the nail on the head.

massive injection of liquidity in conjunction with massive capitol expeditures for upgrades in soft/hardware. everyone upgraded at the same time!!! there was a gap of 18 months where there was very little capitol expediture.

so we had a resession, which was scary to the boys on the hill. so they invented instant captiol expenditures with lower risk thresholds within the personal equity market to kick-start the economy with consumer spending.

for 4 years we lived off of equity and finacial instruments.

the equity is gone and the problem still remains

where is the $$$ going to come from if we don't produce anything?

nafta has killed us and mexico, SA, and soon europe.

i wish somebody would find infomajic's postings and paste them on this thread. it would be a good exercise to look at predictions made in 1998-9 and see how close the wacko came to reality.

the scale is overwhelming. the only way to prepare is to pray for the strength to endure.



death by a 1000 cuts

Go here to read reposts of Infomagic's writings

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=207703&highlight=infomagic

 

[Hansa44]

[No message]

 

[mzkitty]

Go here to read reposts of Infomagic's writings

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=207703&highlight=infomagic

Hmmm......... just skimmed through your link, and I disagree with this section. People DO have every right to get rid of a government that is not doing right by them:

In America, then, the first elephant we are likely to see will not be the purple mutants from the big city or divisions of well armed battle tanks. It will be Fred Fed, who has already proved he will reliably fire on private citizens (regardless of the legality of the action). The same Fred Fed who has already stated that he will steal private property if "he" thinks it necessary. So how do we deal with this elephant? The correct answer is "we don't". Quite apart from legal and christian-ethical considerations which should, rightfully, discourage us from overthrowing our government, your first choice in dealing with any elephant must always be to avoid him, if at all possible. In this case it means avoiding the conflict by caching most of your arms and supplies, while this is still possible and legal.

 

[Hfcomms]

A lot of those people who got rid of their freeze dried Y2k preps are going to rue the day they made that foolish decision.

 

[Alan2012]

It is fun and useful to reflect on the whole Y2K fiasco.

recently:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showpost.php?p=2719186&postcount=7

Some WERE positive that Y2k was Big One. I was one of them -- in 1998 and early
1999. Then I started seeing things differently. That was when I became aware
of peak oil, and a bunch of other stuff pertaining to the oncoming mid-term
(a few decades) collapse -- whether or not major Y2K disruptions came to pass.
Y2K became, for me, like a little "dress rehersal" for oncoming episodes in a
a long, unfolding crisis and collapse, over decades. The "long emergency"
as Kunstler called it, later.

From way back -- the 1970s -- it was
clear that we were on an unsustainable path. The Limits to Growth and other
literature from that era was most prescient. And yet, the specifics of how it
might unfold, and WHEN, precisely, the boom would start to lower, were never
clear.

All that has changed, dramatically, in just the last few years -- and even more
the last ONE year. It is now perfectly clear that we are entering a great
meltdown and collapse on multiple fronts -- environment, resources,
economy, etc.

As for "crying wolf": yes, that was a problem for some, who put too much
stock in Y2K as IT. That problem mirrors the opposite problem, which is
much larger: that of zillions of people who just Don't Get It -- about the
onrushing multi-front collapse that is now beginning in earnest. Too bad
the GIs could not have shared some of that knowledge and sense of
urgency with the DGIs, and vice versa.....

 

[Clyde]

Great insights, all of you. Thanks for responding.

I hope that Y2K becomes revered as a blessing is disguise, a dry run for what is to become. Maybe it is the mental exercises and thought processes we have all played out and the trials we have all endured while prepping, test, evaluate, test, replace, again... Maybe it is this that will become the seed of emotional survival that will be needed for rebirth after the blow down. This very thin veneer of civility is lifting and the raw undersbelly of human weakness is about to be revealed.

I'm on the road to Richmond this evening, I look forward to getting back to this thread from Cary St.

 

[LeafyForest]

Still have some of my old Y2K stuff in the garage! My problem is that we told friends about Y2K they prepped also, and when nothing happened they got rid of alot of items and now don't want to hear anything more about stocking up!! And know they don't have much on hand now, but definitely think this is the time that we should!!

 

[atlan]

Clyde,

I find it amusing that this was your 666th post.

 

[Hfcomms]

Problem is my brother burned out on Y2K and now he's a DGI. He felt so foolish in prepping when it wasn't needed at this point he won't do anything at all. What he failed to understand is you don't prep for a single event or even series of events but that prepping itself is a lifestyle. That and me and Mr. Murphy (His law you know) are bosom buddies and I always look for him to zing me when I don't expect it.

 

[Michiana MaJo]

MzKitty....thanks so much for the link to Infomagic's articles....and Maher, too.

I put them in my favorites for reading, this weekend.

I'm glad I saved all my Y2K preps, and have added more, seeing the seriousness of the coming times. I don't suppose anyone, no matter how much they have prepped, ever thinks they have enough....how long do you have to prepare for?

When we keep readiing about the continual rising prices of grains and other foods, and the fact that well heeled buyers, i.e. countries rolling in cash, like China or Russia, could come in and buy up all our reserves, it's very sobering to think about what could happen.

 

[Ben Sunday]

Great insights, all of you. Thanks for responding.

I hope that Y2K becomes revered as a blessing is disguise, a dry run for what is to become. Maybe it is the mental exercises and thought processes we have all played out and the trials we have all endured while prepping, test, evaluate, test, replace, again... Maybe it is this that will become the seed of emotional survival that will be needed for rebirth after the blow down. This very thin veneer of civility is lifting and the raw undersbelly of human weakness is about to be revealed. .

Speaking of insights, yours are quite provocative as well.

I have always had the opinion that Y2K served as a stimulus for further prep among folks who can actually contemplate risk in this world, without going off the edge. It certainly changed my views forever, and I transitioned from a long time casual prepper, into a maximum effort/cover as many bases as possible prepper.

The DGI's, both then and now, are the chink in the armor of Western humanity and civilization.

I am very pleased that you started this thread, and look forward to more comments from other folks.

 

[mzkitty]

MzKitty....thanks so much for the link to Infomagic's articles....and Maher, too.

I put them in my favorites for reading, this weekend.

I'm glad I saved all my Y2K preps, and have added more, seeing the seriousness of the coming times. I don't suppose anyone, no matter how much they have prepped, ever thinks they have enough....how long do you have to prepare for?

When we keep readiing about the continual rising prices of grains and other foods, and the fact that well heeled buyers, i.e. countries rolling in cash, like China or Russia, could come in and buy up all our reserves, it's very sobering to think about what could happen.

Oh, that was Hansa who found and posted it. I just commented on one.

 

[Loon]

Clyde,

I noticed your post number was 666

Freaky!

Numbers aside..........

Y2K was my awakening. It was the beginning of my prep lifestlye. To be properly prepared it takes years of reading, learning, accumulating the right tools, moving into the right area etc. Becoming more self sufficient has brought me great peace. I don't worry about the problems of the world as much. I know when I put my head on the pillow at night that I've done all I can do..........

and that is all we can ever hope for.

Survival.

 

[Thunderbird]

At my old company computer hardware is written off and replaced every three years.
What hit us was the dedicated written in house soft ware that was simple and a delight to use. We had a corporate directive to use a generic software package that was not suited to our proceedures and reduced effeciency in critical areas by 60%.
Beware of those from the corporate main office saying I'm here to help you.

 

[Maher]

Infomagic, Scary Gary, Milne and all the rest were almost entirely WRONG about Y2K. It wasn't as big a deal as it was touted it would be. I still think it was an excuse for the FED to upgrade and consolidate their systems. It was the banks’ opportunity to do the same. The federal government became more powerful and the little guy became more insignificant.

But, it was good that people started thinking seriously about prepping for world events. Many people woke up the negative possibilities that we are confronted with who would still be asleep - if not for Y2K.

 

[Ben Sunday]

Maher,

Given that hindsight is almost always 20-20, my opinion now is that Infomagic had the appearance of having applied the most thought and logic. Which is why, I suppose, that he/she/it was utterly wrong.

All three of these folks were prominent uber doomers. How well I recall my shouting matches with Milne and a few others at CSY2K. Very edgy and angry. A symptom of the trouble we were certain was just around the corner.

Everybody has an opinion and every right to express it. I'm delighted THAT chapter (Y2K) is behind us.

 

[dragonslayer2001]

well

you ask:


"How much do you think that the massive economic over reaction to Y2K has contributed to current state of affairs? How close are we to significant changes on the Y2K scale? Or, is this association far more diffuse than I am making it and even less significant?"


I don't think the Y2K upgrade had any effect on what is happening now. What is happening now is the Greenspan/Clintoon/Clintoon/Bush era of easy credit and unlimited printing press operation during the feel good years while they stole the country.

As for Y2K. Parts of it were very real. I was heavily involved in the computer/network upgrades for PG&E and the techs I worked with were heavily involved in upgrading the infrastructure. There was a tremendous amount done there that might have had a very large effect if the steps had not been taken.

There WERE very big disruptions in the oil pipeline/oil refinery around the world for almost 6 months after rollover. NONE of it was in the common press, it was very much covered up, but I got an oil industry advisory every day and went to a "blog" that posted the news everyday.


As for the government at many levels, I retrospect I agree with Maher. It was used to upgrade their infrastructures for what is coming. Financial, climatic, and possibly something much worse. Nuke war or something approaching an ELE.


ps. as a personal note, if it weren't for Y2K, would you know 1/3 of what you know about prepping now?

 

[Clyde]

I was a prepper long before Y2K having endured earthquakes in Mexico City and California and ice storms and hurricanes in the mid-atlantic. I first found out about Y2K from an essay by Ed Yourdon and it was a real eye opener. I began to seek out more information, and more...

That was when I read about about JIT inventories, critical monitoring systems, embedded chips, and cascading defaults. It was then that I learned how interconnected and fragile those systems that support modern society are and how dependent we are upon them, and it alarmed me. I began to prep in new ways, heirloom seeds, wheat grinder, books, slide rule...

We did dodge a bullet but it may have caught up to us in a far broader way. We will be overcome by entropy plain and simple. We cannot maintain the systems that support us.

I actually might not know a tenth of what I know about certain things today if it weren't for Y2K. I am glad for the knowledge but I am apprehensive about what is to come for my kids. I am also tenuously optimistic because I know we'll get by.

 

[flagman II]

We gave away alot of things over the years including our waterfilter to a family that needed it after Katrina. At least we were able to help a few others which was a secondary reason that we had.
Flagman II

 

[Michiana MaJo]

Flagman, I hope you're planning to acquire another water filter, before too long. It's an item I think everyone should have. Even if you don't think you need it now. Chances are you do need it. If you have city water, think of all the contaminants that go down the river into the water supplies of unsuspecting people. Not to mention the fluoride, which is bad, bad, bad. It can cause dental fluorosis, serious bone problems, and lowering of intelligence.

If you have a well, there could still be a lot of contaminants from pesticides or many other sources. Big Berkey can be our best friend. And, no, I get no remuneration from the company. I just know it's tops!!!

 

[Hannah]

Y2K did indeed do what it was supposed to all along

Y2K: Moving the World Electronically and Economically into World Government
by

Joan M. Veon

http://www.womensgroup.org/y2k_20000311.html

Clever of them wasn't it?

Hannah