ALERT 50% Chance of X-Class CME in next 24 hours

willowlady

Veteran Member
DH just got off his morning Ham radio net and they said (totally not confirmed by any other source that I know of, so it may be complete, er, exagerration):

There is a 50% of an X-Class solar flare disrupting radio communications within the next 24 hours.

Just a heads up. Hopefully, it will mean nothing, since there is also a 50% chance of it NOT doing anything.

Somebody chime in with some current data? Thanks.
 

the watcher

Inactive
Do X-Class CMEs have a rating scale?

Yes. Notice the tics, that's the scale. I'll embed a live link to Goes X-Ray, that every time the page (hit F5) is refreshed, it refreshes. This is where you'll "see" an "X" first. I have had this running in a tab for three days.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Xray.gif
 

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
What are potential damages of this? How big would it be? Steps to take for protection?
 

the watcher

Inactive
I'm no expert, I have only being studying this for about 3 years. I want to clarify, flares are not cme's. Both can happen independently of each other, though many times a flare does indeed eject a cme. Earth rotates thru space from left to right, looking at the Sun. The Sun's rotation "outruns" the earths progress. That's why Sunspots progress on around to the right. At least to our vision. Now to risk, we have had X's before, but studies are now determining that flares don't have to be high X's to damage us. The area producing this unheard of amount of M flares, is actually a group of spots. packed tightly together. Seen below, area 1515.
Live link
mdi_sunspots.jpg


Notice on the left, an area 1519 is now rotating towards us. This means that BOTH spots, 1515 and 1519 will be Earth facing simultaneously. Both very dangerous areas.

I generally have Goes X-Ray running in a tab to monitor for X's. This is where you'll "see" an X flare first. click refresh or hit F5 to refresh the readout.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Live Link
Xray.gif
 

Hognutz

Has No Life - Lives on TB
http://spaceweather.com/


This is a pretty good site.


HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. X-flare alerts: text, voice.

NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, and it appears to be a big one. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a first glimpse of the spot's dark cores during the early hours of July 6th:
 

Guns-N-Moses

Senior Member
Found a decent article on the UK website 'dailymail'

New sunspot group bombards Earth with solar flares - and one blast disrupts radio communications in Europe

A violent new sunspot is bombarding the Earth with particles from solar flares - including a blast that affected some radio transmissions across Europe.

Nasa's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured an M5.6-class solar flare erupting from the sun's surface starting on July 2, from a huge sunspot called AR1515 in the sun's southern hemisphere.

The blast of particles - a 'coronal mass ejection' - was not directed towards Earth, but the charged particles caused brief radio interference across Europe.

article-2169658-13F19965000005DC-778_634x519.jpg


NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory saw an active region on the sun, labeled AR1515, sent out an M5.3 class solar flare that peaked on Independence Day July 4th, 2012

article-2169658-13F0CE05000005DC-849_634x354.jpg


This image, captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory, shows the M5.3 class solar flare that peaked on July 4, 2012

article-0-13F14523000005DC-17_634x455.jpg


SUMI'ss instruments are designed to study magnetic fields of the sun's chromosphere -- a thin layer of solar atmosphere sandwiched between the visible surface, photosphere and its atmosphere, the corona


From a different spot, but on that same day, the sun unleashed a coronal mass ejection (CME) that began at 4:36 AM on Tuesday.

Models from the NASA's Space Weather Center at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md, described the CME at traveling at nearly 700 miles per second, but do not show it heading toward Earth.

Sunspots are darker than the surrounding area because they are slightly cooler, which makes them less luminous.

They are caused by the sun’s magnetic field becoming twisted – and it’s this twisting dynamic that can produce coronal mass ejections.

These contain billions of tons of gases bursting with X-rays and ultraviolet radiation.

They are mind-bogglingly hot – around 100,000,000C.


article-0-13F14527000005DC-801_634x471.jpg


The chromosphere is a narrow layer above the photosphere that raises in temperature with height. Normally, it can't be seen by the naked eye because the light from the photosphere of the Sun overpowers it. The coloring of the chromosphere (deep red) is caused by the immense hydrogen supply it contains

The Earth is occasionally hit by these ejections, leading to amazing shimmering light shows.

They are the result of ionised solar particles becoming imprisoned by Earth’s magnetic field, exciting the gases in the atmosphere and emitting bursts of energy in the form of light.

However, these particles can also cause magnetic storms, which in extreme cases have been known to disrupt satellites and electricity grids.

In 1989, a CME was held responsible for leaving six million people in Quebec, Canada, without power.

Solar activity runs in 11-year cycles, with the current one peaking in 2013, so more violent space weather is on the horizon.

Dr Matthew Penn, of the National Solar Observatory in Arizona, said recently: 'Because the sun is becoming more active, it will have an impact on millions of people. Sunspots can cause the biggest and most damaging space storms that occur.

'During the next two years, we are expecting the number of sunspots visible on the sun to reach a maximum. We know that sunspots are the source of a lot of space weather and solar storms, so we expect a larger number of solar storms here at the Earth.’

Story with video continues here
 

HighStrung

Senior Member
Some interesting info here, thanks for posting. I've heard about the flares and CME's but cannot actually say I've ever noticed the affects of either. Is this just because they are not generally as bad as the warning that preceed them, or because they are over-rated in terms of how they can affect us.

Guns-N-Moses---You mention that in 1989 Canada had one which wiped out power for parts of Quebec, how did they nail down the reason to actually being a CME? I'm not questioning your statement, I just don't know much about the topic and you seem faily knowledged.
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
Spaceweather.com has a 25% chance of Xflare.

HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. X-flare alerts
 

marymonde

Veteran Member
I read elsewhere there has been 18 m-class flares within the past 72 hours. The sun is definitely starting to get very active.
 

Wise Owl

Deceased
Hey folks, the sun has blasted off 18 flares in the past 72 hours. This is extraordinary all by itself. Be prepared for radio disruptions at the very least as wave after wave on ionization come blasting us.

Personally, I would try to stay out of the sun during peak hours each day. This is a lot of radiation.
 

kemosabe

Doooooooooom !
yikes!

per spaceweather.com

"As one big sunspot (AR1515) turns away from Earth, another one is turning toward our planet. AR1520, now emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, stretches more than 127,000 km (10 Earth diameters) from end to end:"
ar1520_strip.jpg


"AR1520 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. So far, however, the sunspot's magnetic canopy is crackling with lesser C-flares. The calm before the storm? NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours."



ALSO



coronalhole_sdo_200.gif


"A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole cold reach Earth on July 10-11. Credit: SDO/AIA."
 

hope4mil

Veteran Member
Looks like the prediction for an X Class, was right this time.
Hope

http://spaceweather.com/
X-FLARE: For days, giant sunspot AR1515 has looked capable of producing a really strong explosion. On July 6th it finally did: The sunspot's magnetic canopy erupted, producing a brief but potent X1.1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

The explosion hurled a CME into space. According to this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, the cloud appears to be heading south and away from Earth. Update: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME will miss eveything. Their forecast track shows the cloud not hitting any spacecraft or planets.

Look at the CME movie one more time. The speckles near the end are caused by energetic protons accelerated by the flare. Guided toward Earth by solar magnetic fields, the protons are peppering Earth-orbiting satellites, causing "snow" in imaging systems and posing a slim threat for single-event upsets (computer glitches).
 
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