ECON What long term effect on drop in auto production

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Italian circus, huh? Must've been a Fiat dealer? :)

Then it's a well built, high quality circus then. Fiat is one of few makes on the road with few recalls. Six total in the last 7 years if I remember correctly.
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
Looks like we are not going to get out of this for some time. Predictions are that next year's production will not be very good either. A two year blip in production is going to have an effect an car prices up to 15yrs down the road because of shortages in those age classes. Even if they make it up with max production, the prices will be higher.

How long do you think it will take to electrify our auto systems? Using the standard production that we usually have, I would think it would take 15 yrs to replace gas with electric.

BTW, in the OP I used 'downstream' as a metaphor for a long time ahead. And sure enough some people here didn't get it, thought it meant 'today'. My apologies. I usually ID my metaphors. Failed to do so this time. I will try to do better.
 

Kayak

Adrenaline Junkie
Curious-what model Honda? All of them are under fuel pump replacement recalls, some still fall under the Takata airbag recalls; '16 and up Civics/CR-Vs/Fits still have the AC condenser recall. And most of the '16-19 motors still fall under the oil dilution warranty extension.

2021 Civic sport, and it's a braking issue, which means it's a huge safety issue and the mama bear in me isn't happy.
 

LYKURGOS

No Surrender, No Defeat!
How long do you think it will take to electrify our auto systems? Using the standard production that we usually have, I would think it would take 15 yrs to replace gas with.

The school I’m on the board for has had power transformers on two big poles that were set in 1958. We have looked at replacing the transformers and eliminating the poles twice in 10 years with ground mounted every time we got estimates it was higher and higher. Finally we bit the bullet the REA upfronted $50000 and I think our out of pocket was $118,000. So how long till we get our grid updated to handle electric car capacity? There is not enough money to do it. We couldn’t even get century-tel to upgrade the rural network here for the last 10 years.

Maybe you’re thinking, well you live in rural backwoods and that makes it expensive. Try improving the underground power in LA county or NewYork city and see how many trillions of dollars that amounts to.

Until people grasp the relationship between kilowatt energy and BTU energy involved with gasoline then overlay that on top of our already stretched thin power grid they might as well spit in the wind.

Not feasible in decades. Unless Evergrande will come build us some new Ghost Cities
 
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Firebird

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It makes it real hard for our youth to truly understand the freedom of the road and the joy of their first car. Motorbikes will make a big comeback.

My 14 year old with his first car: it needs some work but it was his great-grandfather's car.
Cool old Maverick! What year is it, around 1974?
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
2021 Civic sport, and it's a braking issue, which means it's a huge safety issue and the mama bear in me isn't happy.

Either the parking brake (it's electronic) or the electronic tie in to the VSC (vehicle stability control) system. Not a huge issue in their recall system, hence low repair parts inventories. Seen very few brake issues with these but they do happen. Most of the issues I've seen can be remedied by a software reflash.

If it's a 4 door hatchback, most likely it was built in England (hatchback 4 door Civics are built in Swindon, England). Your daughter has a somewhat interesting vehicle from a future collectible standpoint. It's the last year of that body style, and the Swindon plant is currently in the process of shutting down. Because of Brexit, Honda has decided to move the production line to France (where the completed vehicles won't be subject to EU import duties. Imported cars from England would be subject to taxation.) Plus, for a British built car (Brit cars are not known for good build quality) it's a well screwed together piece. It also has a good bit of British built content in it.

Set a US made Civic, a British built Civic and a Japanese built Civic (very rare here but some were brought over to supplement inventories) side by side. You'll see noticeable quality fit and finish differences. Japanese built is best, followed by the Brit built one, last in quality is the US made model.
I look at them, and every other car make on a daily basis.
 

Kayak

Adrenaline Junkie
Either the parking brake (it's electronic) or the electronic tie in to the VSC (vehicle stability control) system. Not a huge issue in their recall system, hence low repair parts inventories. Seen very few brake issues with these but they do happen. Most of the issues I've seen can be remedied by a software reflash.

The first time, she had warnings of impact to the front left, stability issues, I forget all of them, but over a dozen warnings popped up. The dealership said a sensor on that corner of the car went bad, and they replaced it.

The second time, it was the brake assembly, but we now understand that's what it was the first time too, because that sensor is built into it? They replaced a whole bunch of parts, or that's what they said. I don't remember all of it without looking at the paperwork.

Four days later, she pulled into her boyfriend's place of employment, a different dealership, and the mechanics (or whatever they are called now) told her she couldn't drive the car. Something was visibly wrong enough they saw it when she pulled in to see him. She drove it across the street to a gas station so it wouldn't look like she'd taken it to another dealership, and had the Honda dealership tow it in. They replaced something else in the same brakes -- front driver side.

The next time, it was low on brake fluid and they said they fixed the leak and refilled it.

The last time, they told her the brake assembly needs a part, and that's what I originally wrote about. I don't think this is a recall. I think something is screwy with that brake assembly, and I'm not confident they know how to fix it. The good news is that they got the part in and replaced it. She's driving it again (three days now), and so far so good. She knows to use the emergency brake if the pedal doesn't work. Unfortunately, when the car is moving you can't put it in reverse, so she doesn't have that option.

In college, I had sports cars and was more than capable of replacing my own brake pads (back when I couldn't afford to pay someone else to do it). I'm not stupid about brakes, but with all of the electronic bits, I'm not up on the problems and how to fix them, either.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The first time, she had warnings of impact to the front left, stability issues, I forget all of them, but over a dozen warnings popped up. The dealership said a sensor on that corner of the car went bad, and they replaced it.

The second time, it was the brake assembly, but we now understand that's what it was the first time too, because that sensor is built into it? They replaced a whole bunch of parts, or that's what they said. I don't remember all of it without looking at the paperwork.

Four days later, she pulled into her boyfriend's place of employment, a different dealership, and the mechanics (or whatever they are called now) told her she couldn't drive the car. Something was visibly wrong enough they saw it when she pulled in to see him. She drove it across the street to a service station so it wouldn't look like she'd taken it to another dealership, and had the Honda dealership tow it in. They replaced something else in the same brakes -- front driver side.

The next time, it was low on brake fluid and they said they fixed the leak and refilled it.

The last time, they told her the brake assembly needs a part, and that's what I originally wrote about. I don't think this is a recall. I think something is screwy with that brake assembly, and I'm not confident they know how to fix it. The good news is that they got the part in and replaced it. She's driving it again (three days now), and so far so good. She knows to use the emergency brake if the pedal doesn't work. Unfortunately, when the car is moving you can't put it in reverse, so she doesn't have that option.

In college, I had sports cars and was more than capable of replacing my own brake pads (back when I couldn't afford to pay someone else to do it). I'm not stupid about brakes, but with all of the electronic bits, I'm not up on the problems and how to fix them, either.

The mechanical parts of brakes hasn't changed from when you replaced them yourself. It's the electronics tied into them these days that is causing the problems. Sounds like the caliper assy. on that left side needs replacing, and the dealer is trying to "stretch it out" by doing as little as possible until the warranty runs out. Then the customer is on the hook for the cost of all the repairs.
Even in the 21st century dealers still pull those kinds of stunts.
 

Kayak

Adrenaline Junkie
The mechanical parts of brakes hasn't changed from when you replaced them yourself. It's the electronics tied into them these days that is causing the problems. Sounds like the caliper assy. on that left side needs replacing, and the dealer is trying to "stretch it out" by doing as little as possible until the warranty runs out. Then the customer is on the hook for the cost of all the repairs.
Even in the 21st century dealers still pull those kinds of stunts.

They've fixed it five times in five months, and we've let them know that, inventory issues or not, we'll be pressing for relief through the lemon law if this fifth time didn't take care of it. I thought the dealerships were paid by the manufacturer when they made warranty repairs?

Also, the first four times, they said they couldn't issue a loaner car to someone under 25 due to their insurance. The fifth time, they found a way around that and gave her a loaner when I mentioned that they should just replace the car rather than providing a loaner, since we were well past the lemon law's requirements.

I'm really hoping they managed to get it fixed this time.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
They've fixed it five times in five months, and we've let them know that, inventory issues or not, we'll be pressing for relief through the lemon law if this fifth time didn't take care of it. I thought the dealerships were paid by the manufacturer when they made warranty repairs?

Also, the first four times, they said they couldn't issue a loaner car to someone under 25 due to their insurance. The fifth time, they found a way around that and gave her a loaner when I mentioned that they should just replace the car rather than providing a loaner, since we were well past the lemon law's requirements.

I'm really hoping they managed to get it fixed this time.
Their insurance requirements are pretty much industry standard. If it's been 4 times trying to get the vehicle fixed then definitely go for a refund or buyback under the lemon law. Or take Honda to court and squeeze them for a replacement vehicle and monies for pain and suffering. That happens a lot locally.
 

wvstuck

Only worry about what you can control!
In my opinion, a replacement parts shortage would be a bigger problem. We can easily manage a year of reduced new car production if we can keep the ones already in our garages running.

But, the market will out. If there's money/demand, production will eventually rise. Means higher consumer prices of course, but that's something that's coming at us from all angles anyway.
Replacement parts shortages are climbing by the day, back orders are mounting in our parts department. One for instance: There are zero engines or transmission assemblies available for 2007 to 2013 Chevrolet SIlverados, even used motors are getting impossible to find. Electronics, certain oil filters and so on and so on.... It is getting worse and worse. GM has sent dealers a notification stating they have partnered with a supplier of used parts we can offer customers if new parts are not available.


I have read (don't have the article handy) that dealers and manufacturers are making plans for when the chip shortage abates to not go back to the old way of doing business - ie. less/no dealer incentives, a lot less inventory on the dealer lots and more focus on restricting pricing to MSRP. In other words, there's no going back.
The manufacturers don't care about end user pricing, they are paid when the vehicle ships to the dealer, all dealers have the same cost. They really don't care how much you sell it for. Right now most dealers are marking new vehicles up $5000 or more over MSRP. Some dealers will only sell if you have a good trade in, they can't buy from auctions and can't get new inventory. So no trade in, sorry about your luck. I've been in dealerships for 25+ years and this is the worst problem we have ever seen. By 2022 you will start to see dealerships closing their doors forever if something doesn't change.
 

Southside

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Replacement parts shortages are climbing by the day, back orders are mounting in our parts department. One for instance: There are zero engines or transmission assemblies available for 2007 to 2013 Chevrolet SIlverados, even used motors are getting impossible to find. Electronics, certain oil filters and so on and so on.... It is getting worse and worse. GM has sent dealers a notification stating they have partnered with a supplier of used parts we can offer customers if new parts are not available.



The manufacturers don't care about end user pricing, they are paid when the vehicle ships to the dealer, all dealers have the same cost. They really don't care how much you sell it for. Right now most dealers are marking new vehicles up $5000 or more over MSRP. Some dealers will only sell if you have a good trade in, they can't buy from auctions and can't get new inventory. So no trade in, sorry about your luck. I've been in dealerships for 25+ years and this is the worst problem we have ever seen. By 2022 you will start to see dealerships closing their doors forever if something doesn't change.
Yea, actually, they make(at MSRP) 20% or so, PLUS holdback. Some cars more, some less.
 

wvstuck

Only worry about what you can control!
Yea, actually, they make(at MSRP) 20% or so, PLUS holdback. Some cars more, some less.
The dealers do, the manufacturers only get what they sell them to the dealer for. 25 years with GM, they don't care what we sell them for, they've already been paid.
 

Southside

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The dealers do, the manufacturers only get what they sell them to the dealer for. 25 years with GM, they don't care what we sell them for, they've already been paid.
In the past, I had audited a few dealers. For the most part, they would break-even during the year, and the owner would get the dealer hold-back at the end of the year. It was set-up that way for a reason.
 

pauldingbabe

The Great Cat
Oldest daughter bought her first new car back in April. A Honda. It's been in the shop five times, but the lemon law doesn't help because there are no cars to replace it with. Hers is a sport model and those have been sold out for a while, and there are none in the pipeline to be made. This last time it was towed in for service, they told her they were fighting with another dealership for a part that a different dealership had. If they could get it, they'd have her car for her in a week, if not, they said it could be months before they could get the part to fix it. Thankfully, they got it, and she has her car back. Don't know how long she'll have it back this time.

My heart breaks for her.

TL : DR -- don't buy a Honda.


Bet they still want those monthly payments though.
 

pauldingbabe

The Great Cat
The mechanical parts of brakes hasn't changed from when you replaced them yourself. It's the electronics tied into them these days that is causing the problems. Sounds like the caliper assy. on that left side needs replacing, and the dealer is trying to "stretch it out" by doing as little as possible until the warranty runs out. Then the customer is on the hook for the cost of all the repairs.
Even in the 21st century dealers still pull those kinds of stunts.

Not if you were one of the lucky people that got in on the ground floor of the all powerful Extended Warranty.

/s
:)
 
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