ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

[onetimer]

CSIS Korea Chair
@CSISKoreaChair

North Korean provocations during U.S. national holidays/weekend:
- Columbus Day
- 3 - Independence Day
- 3 - Labor Day
- 4 - Memorial Day
- 7 - MLK Day
- 1 - Thanksgiving
- 3 Including 1st nuclear test on Columbus Day & 2nd nuclear test on Memorial Day.

View attachment 341457

Interesting.

They've had 6 tests with 2 on US Holidays. Considering their past chosen dates and test times between 00:30-03:30UTC we may see a test.

Test could be Monday 5/30/22 Memorial day around 5:30pm-8:30pm

6 Tests
1 (0.7–2 kt) Monday October 9 2006 01:35:27 UTC Columbus day
2 (2–5.4 kt) Monday May 25 2009 00:54:43 UTC Memorial day
3 (6–16 kt) Tuesday February 12 2013 02:57:51 UTC NO US Holiday
4 (7–16.5 kt) Wednesday January 6 2016 01:30:01 UTC NO US Holiday
5 (15–25 kt) Wednesday September 9 2016 00:30:01 UTC NO US Holiday
6 (70–280 kt) Sunday September 3 2017 03:30:01.940 UTC NO US Holiday

 

[Zoner]

From my favorite Geo-political analyst, J. R. Nyquist who has lots on his blog.
Today he posted that China is preparing to strike the U.S. FYI

JRN: "It seems rather obvious that China is mobilizing for a war against the United States. Several Chinese sources have, during the past two years, told me that China is preparing for a war against America. The evidence is now more than sufficient to conclude that war is coming in the short term. I am told it will start before November 1, 2022."

Russian [or Chinese] Nihilism and the Coming Order, Part II

In history, the Western powers used warships and opium to colonize China. Now the opposite has happened. We will use our open policy, seize the economic crisis in the West as a historical moment, a…

jrnyquist.blog

 

[jward]

Making sense of North Korea’s recent ICBM and (possible) nuclear tests

By Seiyeon Ji, Victor Cha | May 27, 2022

North Korea launches a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile reported to be a Hwasong-17, its largest-known ICBM, on May 25 (Seoul time), 2022 (Image YTN & YTN plus).

In a reversal from its earlier position, North Korea test-launched on Wednesday a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and two shorter-range weapons—only hours after US president Joe Biden concluded his trip to Asia. In April 2018, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, had declared a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and long-range missile tests after three successful ICBM launches in 2017 demonstrated their potential range to reach the United States.
In contrast, in the first half of 2022 alone, North Korea has conducted more than 18 weapons tests—an alarming development given their frequency and variety. During this period, North Korea not only tested long-range missiles capable of reaching the continental United States, it also launched short-range and intermediate-range missiles, and tactical missiles—as well as submarine-launched, train-launched, hypersonic, and cruise missiles.
Each new North Korean missile test—regardless of its success or failure—brings Pyongyang closer to its goal of developing a credible, survivable nuclear weapons delivery system that can target the US homeland.

Recent missile developments. During its military parade in October 2020, North Korea also revealed the development of a larger Hwasong-17—the world’s largest liquid-propellant missile ever built, and deployed on a road-mobile launcher to date. A missile of this size suggests North Korea’s intends to arm the weapon with multiple warheads to overwhelm US national missile defense systems. The military parade also showed that North Korea appears to be indigenously designing launch vehicles for large missiles, including the Hwasong-17. This is significant because the survivability of North Korea’s ICBM force will heavily depend on the number of launchers they are about to build.

These developments point to North Korea achieving major technical benchmarks to quantitatively and qualitatively expand its nuclear-capable delivery force.
But North Korea’s advances are not just in building better, more capable, and more precise missiles. Its credible missile capability is now being accompanied also by a credible strategy. At the 8th Workers’ Party Congress in January 2021, Kim Jong-un laid out—in unusually specific details—his goals for North Korea’s weapons development. During his remarks, Kim outlined three major objectives for North Korea’s ICBM program likely to be the focus of future missile tests: multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) capable of hosting several warheads on a single missile, longer-range ICBMs with a 15,000-kilometer capability (about 9,321 miles), and solid-propellant ICBMs. Such new solid-fuel ICBMs take much less time to prepare for launch, making them quicker to turn around in a crisis—which consequently shortens the time the United States and South Korea might have to pre-empt these systems before they are launched.

The development of MIRVs by North Korea would be particularly negative for US security interests. With a limited number of missile defense interceptors designed to cope with North Korean ICBMs, a multiple warhead delivery system would significantly increase the threat to the US homeland. North Korea currently houses at least 10 ICBM launchers, including six launchers that were converted from Chinese Wanshan logging trucks and four 11-axle Hwasong-17 launchers. The United States currently has 44 ground-based interceptors that can handle limited ICBM threats from North Korea. As international security analyst Ankit Panda noted, “if you assume a worst-case scenario where [the U.S.] end up using four interceptors per incoming reentry vehicle and you see single reentry vehicles, basically the North Koreans need to build one more launcher to saturate the existing capability.”
RELATED:
Why joint US-South Korean research on plutonium separation raises nuclear proliferation danger
New nuclear activities. In addition to accelerating the development of survivable nuclear weapons delivery systems, there are now signs that North Korea may resume testing of its atomic bombs. US and South Korean intelligence agencies are on alert for a possible nuclear test by North Korea. On Wednesday, May 25, South Korea’s deputy national security advisor Kim Tae-hyo commented in a press briefing that North Korea has been testing a nuclear-triggering device in preparation for what would be the country’s seventh nuclear test. If conducted, this test would mean that Pyongyang is also breaking its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons testing.
The strategic analysis program “Beyond Parallel” by the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has used high off-nadir satellite imagery to monitor activity in the village of Punggye-ri where all of North Korea’s previous six nuclear tests have been conducted. Most recent imageries collected on May 17, 2022, indicated that there was continued expansion of the support infrastructure for the Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility—including changes in lumber piles, renovation of existing buildings, and construction of new buildings in the main administration and support area. Satellite images also revealed progress over the past three months in the refurbishing work and preparations at Tunnel Number 3. Such activity, if completed, will signal that North Korea has prepared for a possible nuclear test.

The war in Ukraine may also have affected the doctrine that informs North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and delivery capabilities. At one level, Russia’s military attack on Ukraine provides a confirmation to Kim Jong-un that his nuclear pursuits are the best way to deter any external threats. At another—more worrying—level, however, is the possibility of Kim seeing benefits in adopting a nuclear first-use strategy. Putin’s threats of nuclear weapons use—or, at least, his unwillingness to rule out their use—in response to any NATO intervention in Ukraine may influence the way Kim thinks about his ability to deter the United States from intervening on the Korean peninsula. In recent statements, Kim already referred to the possession of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and a secondary use as an “unexpected second mission” if outside forces violate its “fundamental interests.”
RELATED:
Accusations (and evidence) of Russian war crimes in Ukraine
Deterring North Korea. Additional testing—particularly of MIRV capabilities—will be one of the greatest security challenges to the United States and South Korea. While there are no easy options to prevent further advances in North Korea’s weapons program, several steps could help altering Kim Jong-un’s cost-benefit calculations for his missile development efforts.

First, the United States and South Korea should upgrade their defense and deterrence capabilities on the Korean Peninsula. In addition to reactivating the suspended Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group—as promised in last week’s Biden-Yoon summit—the allies should consider other measures to integrate early warning systems, strike capabilities, and the rotation of dual-capable assets to the peninsula. Second, the two allies, along with Japan, should pursue a broad counter-missile strategy that involves detecting and defending against North Korean missiles and launchers, disrupting North Korea’s network of capabilities that allow them to fire missiles repeatedly, and destroying the launchers and missiles themselves. This would require the United States and South Korea to invest in capabilities like sensors, advanced command and control systems, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology. Third, the United States can encourage Seoul to continue developing its indigenous capabilities to help protect South Korean critical infrastructure from North Korean missile barrages. South Korea’s version of the “Iron Dome”—an artillery interception system deployed by Israel—is an example of the types of capabilities it can develop.

The United States, Japan, and South Korea should also increase trilateral coordination on missile defense. This would require South Korea to rethink its long-held position that it would not cooperate with Japan and the United States trilaterally on detection, warning, tracking, and interception of ballistic missiles. For its part, the United States should consider shifting the focus of its diplomacy from completely shutting down North Korea’s nuclear program to slowing down or halting its missile testing. As North Korea comes closer to its capacity to overwhelm US national missile defenses, such policy reorientation is becoming more urgent. For as long as North Korea refuses to return to the negotiating table, the United States could consider integrating ideas for possible “carrots” and “sticks” in the missile realm into existing potential roadmaps for nuclear diplomacy.

Making sense of North Korea’s recent ICBM and (possible) nuclear tests

After North Korea conducted a long-range missile test this week—and possibly a nuclear test in the days to come—two leading experts analyze the implications for the United States and South Korea of Pyongyang getting closer to developing a credible, survivable nuclear weapons delivery system.

thebulletin.org

 

[jward]

The Jerusalem Post
@Jerusalem_Post
7m

The US imposed sanctions on two Russian banks, a North Korean company and a person it accused of supporting North Korea's weapons of mass destruction program.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530405913424801793

View: https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1530405913424801793?s=20&t=FRApsizkn-Db7CGH7V8Xdg

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

- Republic World

www.republicworld.com

(fair use applies)

US Analysing If North Korea's Ballistic Missiles Followed Irregular Trajectory: Reports
US intelligence community is trying to determine whether North Korea tested a ballistic missile with properties they have not seen before.
Written By Riya Baibhawi
Last Updated: 28th May, 2022 11:55 IST

In a key development, the US intelligence community is trying to determine whether North Korea tested a ballistic missile with properties they have not seen before. According to a report by CNN, which cited unknown officials, the projectiles flew on an unknown, ‘double arc' trajectory. Notably, Japan’s Defence Minister also hinted that one of the missiles flew in an unusual manner, labelling the pathway as an “irregular trajectory.”

In a joint statement, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi asserted, “The United States, the ROK, and Japan express deep concern about the May 25 DPRK launches of an intercontinental ballistic missile and shorter-range ballistic missiles.”

"The DPRK has significantly increased the pace and scale of its ballistic missile launches since September 2021. Each of these launches violated multiple UNSC resolutions and posed a grave threat to the region and the international community,” they added.​

What is the double arc trajectory?

Due to their ‘double arc trajectory’, the missiles were seen ascending and descending twice. The officials claimed that with the test, the Kim administration aimed to test DPRK’s ability to fire a missile and then have it re-enter the earth’s atmosphere to reach a target. The second phase of the missile’s possible “double arc” may have been a re-entry vehicle breaking off from the main missile.

Meanwhile, South Korea has claimed that the North test-fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile and two shorter-range weapons toward its eastern waters on May 25. If confirmed, it would be North Korea's first ICBM launch in nearly two months, amid stalled nuclear negotiations with the US. Despite the first COVID-19 outbreak, which has generated international concern about a humanitarian calamity, the launch indicates that North Korea is committed to continuing modernising its weapons arsenal.
.

 

[marsh]

Steve Bannon's War Room has almost the entire program today dedicated to Taiwan with expert speakers. I would post links, but Rumble doesn't give synopsis and I don't have time to take notes and post.

 

[jward]

Three Rounds of Coercion in Philippine Waters


Published: May 26, 2022


In three separate incidents over the last two months, Chinese law enforcement vessels have challenged marine research and hydrocarbon exploration activities within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

Round One: China Squares off with Taiwan, Philippines over Marine Research
The Legend, a research vessel belonging to the Taiwan Ocean Research Institute under the Ministry of Science and Technology, set off from Taiwan on March 13 sailing toward the Philippines. The Legend’s schedule shows that it was booked to conduct research in the Philippines as part of Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy, an initiative of President Tsai Ing-wen to enhance relations with South and Southeast Asian countries. According to the Associated Press, the research trip was part of a joint project of the National Institute of Geological Sciences at the University of the Philippines and National Central University in Taiwan that aims to map geologic features that could trigger earthquakes, tsunamis, and other potentially catastrophic phenomena.
On March 15, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from Marine Traffic shows the Legend began to conduct hydrographic surveys along a 50-nautical-mile wide grid to the northwest of the Philippines’ Babuyan Islands. On March 23, as the Legend continued research 60 nautical miles northwest of Luzon, the China Coast Guard (CCG) 5203 left Mischief Reef in the Spratly islands. It began shadowing the Legend at a distance of 2-3 nautical miles the next day. Taipei responded on March 25 by dispatching its own Coast Guard (CG) 5001 Chiayi, a 125-meter heavy patrol vessel, from Taiwan-occupied Pratas Island. The CG 5001 maneuvered to keep the CCG 5203 away from the Legend for the next two days, with the opposing coast guard vessels in some instances coming within 1000 meters of each other.

The CCG 5203, CG 5001, and Legend on March 26
On March 27, the 60-meter CG 117 Taichung relieved the CG 5001, staying until March 30 when it was itself relieved by the 120-meter CG 129 Kaohsiung. On April 1, AIS data shows the Legend moved closer to the Philippine coast and the CCG 5203 left, heading for disputed Scarborough Shoal where China maintains a constant coast guard presence. On April 6 the Legend again moved farther offshore, operating 70 nautical miles west of Luzon. This time it was accompanied by a Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel, the 45-meter BRP Capones. The CCG 5203 returned that same night to again shadow the Legend with the Capones providing protection.

AIS tracks of the Legend, BRP Capones, and CCG 5203 on April 7
Late on April 7, the Capones returned to port in San Fernando, Philippines, while the CCG 5203 continued tailing the Legend. The game of cat and mouse ended on April 9 when the Legend returned to Taiwan.

Round 2: The Geo Coral and the End of Philippine Exploration
Further south along the Philippine coast, another situation was developing. Events this time centered around the Geo Coral, a survey ship owned by Norwegian seismic exploration company Shearwater GeoServices. AIS data shows the Geo Coral arrived in Block SC 75, just 60 nautical miles off the Philippine coast west of Palawan, on April 4 where it met up with supply ship Mariska G.

As reported by maritime observer Duan Dang, the Philippines’ PXP Energy in February announced plans to conduct 3D seismic surveys in SC 75. It also planned to drill two appraisal wells in SC 72 in Reed Bank, an underwater feature claimed by China but which a 2016 arbitral ruling determined is part of the Philippines’ continental shelf. As soon as the Geo Coral and Mariska G arrived in SC 75, they picked up a tail: CCG 4201.

AIS tracks of Geo Coral and its supply ship Mariska G tailed by the CCG 4201
The 4201 closely followed the two vessels for the next two days until, on April 6, the Philippines’ Department of Energy ordered PXP Energy to “put on hold all exploration activities for SC 75 and SC 72 until such time that the SJPCC [Security, Justice and Peace Coordinating Cluster, part of the president’s Cabinet] has issued the necessary clearance to proceed.” The Geo Coral and Mariska G abruptly left SC-75, spending the next four days surveying closer to shore in block SC 54 before leaving Philippine waters en route to their next contract in South Korea.

Round 3: Philippine Vessels Met by CCG, Militia at Second Thomas
A few weeks later, Chinese law enforcement and militia ships again interfered with Philippine research activity, this time conducted by the M/V DA BFAR, a 60-meter research vessel operated by the Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources.
DA BFAR sailed from Palawan on April 20 heading for Second Thomas Shoal. That underwater feature is occupied by the Philippines and was ruled part of the Philippine EEZ and continental shelf in 2016. As it approached the shoal on April 21, the DA BFAR drew the attention of the CCG 5304. AIS data indicates that the 5304 pursued the DA BFAR at extremely close distances, coming as close as 100 meters in multiple instances.

AIS tracks of the DA BFAR and CCG 5304 maneuvering at close range on April 21
As the CCG 5304 pursued, the CCG 5303 and two Hainan-based militia vessels, the Qiong Sansha Yu 00401 and Qiong Sansha Yu 00105, closed in from the north. Under pressure, the DA BFAR turned around 12.7 nautical miles from Second Thomas Shoal. It retreated 13 nautical miles east before heading north toward Philippine-occupied Nanshan Island, tailed by the CCG 5304.

Meanwhile, a 44.5-meter Parola-class patrol vessel of the Philippine Coast Guard, the BRP Cape Engaño, approached Second Thomas from the east, having left Palawan earlier that day. It was marked by the CCG 5303 and Qiong Sansha Yu 00105, which each shadowed it at distances of approximately 1 nautical mile as it headed toward Second Thomas. The three vessels stopped approximately 6 nautical miles east of the shoal and three more militia vessels began steaming up from the south: the Qiong Sansha Yu 00009, 00101, and 00110.

AIS tracks of the BRP Cape Engaño surrounded by Chinese coastguard and militia, April 21
The newcomers passed less than a mile to the east of the Philippine Coast Guard ship before taking up a position at the north end of Second Thomas. The vessels all maintained their positions for several hours before the Cape Engaño turned back eastward, encouraged by the approaching 5303, which tailed it until it left the area heading northwest toward unoccupied Whitsun Reef.

An Uncertain Future
All three incidents demonstrate Beijing’s determination to control maritime activity within the nine-dash line, and to create a high risk of collisions at sea to do so. In one instance, its tactics clearly succeeded, convincing the Philippines to backpedal on an October 2020 decision to lift a nearly decade-old moratorium on oil and gas exploration in areas of its continental shelf that fall within the nine-dash line. This follows a complete lack of progress on joint exploration despite a 2018 memorandum of understanding with Beijing, making it unclear whether the Philippines will ever be able to access its hydrocarbon resources at Reed Bank.
On other fronts, Philippine law enforcement, navy, and marine science actors have been stepping up their activities in the South China Sea despite an increasingly assertive China. But with a new administration taking power at the end of June, it remains to be seen how forcefully the Philippines will continue to assert those rights.

Update: China Blocks Another Philippine Resupply Mission | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Automatic Identification System (AIS) data suggests that a Philippine government vessel was again denied access to Second Thomas Shoal by the China Coast Guard (CCG) in late June, underscoring the vulnerability of the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, which serves as a Philippine outpost on the reef...

amti.csis.org

 

[northern watch]

 

[Heliobas Disciple]

Unanswered phones, missed signals: fear of accidental US-China crisis grows

Dialogue between Washington and Beijing has all but disappeared, while more ships, planes and submarines are crowding China’s periphery.

www.scmp.com

(fair use applies)

Unanswered phones, missed signals: fear of accidental US-China crisis grows
Mark Magnier in New York
Published: 10:00pm, 29 May, 2022

• Dialogue between Washington and Beijing has all but disappeared, while more ships, planes and submarines are crowding China’s periphery
• 'The stakes are higher because each side assumes the other has the worst intentions,’ says an American foreign policy expert

As US-China relations deteriorated sharply in 2020, Beijing feared the US was preparing an attack on the contested Spratly Islands. Washington had forcefully rejected China’s South China Sea claims, stepped up its air and ocean patrols, and ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston to close. In response, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) raised its readiness status and mobilised large-scale exercises.

A crisis was ultimately averted. But experts, former US officials and recent reports suggest that today the two nations face the greatest risk of misinterpretation or an accidental air or sea collision spiralling out of control since 2001, when Chinese pilot Wang Wei was killed and a US EP-3 spy plane forced down over Hainan Island.

“The escalation risk is significantly higher than it was 2001,” said Amanda Hsiao, an analyst with the International Crisis Group and author of Risky Competition: Strengthening US-China Crisis Management, which was released this month. “We saw then a period of political stalemate and tension, about 11 days before a breakthrough emerged. Were something like that to happen today, it would take much more than 11 days to resolve.”

The stakes are also far greater now given the huge economic, political and military strides China has made and the global reverberations that even routine Chinese actions cause.

And while the odds of an unintended war remain small, the risk is growing, as communication and crisis management falter, guardrails disappear and more ships, planes and submarines crowd China’s periphery. Adding to the mix, the two nuclear powers increasingly frame their competitive struggle as a contest between democracy and authoritarianism, making it far tougher to compromise.

“The stakes are higher because each side assumes the other has the worst intentions,” said Michael Green, senior vice-president with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“It will be extremely hard for both sides to back down,” said Green, the National Security Council’s Asia director during the George W. Bush administration, adding that he expected some sort of crisis within three to five years.

Badly frayed relations mean that existing machinery designed to prevent the two giants from sliding into crisis, or helping them defuse one once under way – including hotlines, maritime guidelines, formal and informal diplomatic channels and military protocols – are increasingly ineffective or non-existent.

Adding to the disconnect are misaligned incentives. While the US is keen to strengthen safeguards and lines of communication so its military can transit the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea unimpeded, Beijing has an interest in avoiding clarity to discourage US freedom-of-navigation patrols and sow doubt.

And while the US side sees China as a rule-breaker bent on upending the global “rules-based” order, Beijing views the US as a washed-up superpower intent on humiliating China and preventing its rise.

“People are worried about an accident because everyone’s on such a hair trigger,” said Susan Thornton, a senior fellow at Yale Law School and former senior State Department official. “It’s kind of amazing we’ve gone since 2001 without one.”

On rare occasions when crisis management meetings were held in recent years, former US officials said their Chinese interlocutors too often lectured them, as trust has all but disappeared.

Adding to the disconnect, many emerging potential areas of conflict – including nuclear, space and cyber – have few or no governing protocols. When the US tried to convince Beijing to join US-Russian nuclear arms control talks in 2020, posting an image of a Chinese flag and an empty chair, Beijing criticised it as “US performance art”.

In fact, experts said, with both sides disenchanted and dialogue becoming a dirty word, it may take a crisis to better manage crises, as seen when a tense stand-off in 1962 spurred Washington and Moscow to establish their first hotline after realising how close they came to nuclear war.

“It took the Cuban missile crisis that almost destroyed the whole world to get people motivated to talk,” said Green. “Unfortunately, that may be what it takes to get serious discussion going. The reality is that militaries generally are hard to convince to do transparency, and for an authoritarian state, that’s really hard.”

A CSIS report released this month that gamed out several scenarios concluded that, short of war, such a crisis would put both capitals under pressure to further decouple their economies, impose more sanctions and embargoes, and heap pressure on foreign investors.

Impeding any improvement in relations are doubts in Washington that it should even engage with Beijing, a stance driven by a view that China needs to become more like the US.

“There’s a sort of allergy to dialogue,” said Hsiao. “If that is the measure of success, that the Chinese change, that’s unlikely to happen.”

Beijing, meanwhile, should realise that lecturing, dragging out negotiations without results, and residual US distrust after the failed 2006-2008 Strategic Economic Dialogue process threaten to undercut its national interests and lead to misinterpretation.

Experts are adept at pointing out the many problems, but offering credible solutions that do not sound naive are more difficult.

Many of the tools to prevent things going off the rails are not working, including the 2014 Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, an air incident annex negotiated in 2015 and the 1998 Maritime Military Consultative Agreement.

Issues of common interest that might once have built trust, including global health and the environment, have increasingly been politicised, used to score soft-power points with allies or as fodder for recrimination. Beijing’s position: the US needs to cut punitive tariffs and address deep-seated irritants before it will agree on less controversial issues.

Even once-routine actions are decried. When Washington recently announced the departure of non-essential personnel from its Shanghai consulate during the Covid-19 lockdown, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused it of playing political games.

The US business community, which used to provide ballast for the relationship, is increasingly disenchanted with Beijing’s tilt toward state-led economics, while even those supporting better relations are reluctant to speak out publicly given Washington’s deep suspicion of China.

“The cold reality is that once a crisis erupts, the economic policymakers get tossed out of the room and the circle of decision makers narrow to those who prosecute war,” CSIS wrote recently in its report “US Business Leaders Not Ready for the Next US-China Crisis”.

On other fronts, quasi-official, so-called track-two, discussions that once allowed signalling and informal communication have significantly diminished, partly because of Covid-19 but also the result of tighter visa policies, rising nationalism and the atmosphere of distrust.

Contact between the PLA and the Pentagon has been on a steady decline. The high-level Security and Diplomatic Dialogue, established in 2017 by president Donald Trump’s administration before relations deteriorated, was abandoned in 2019.

Last year, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin tried and failed three times to organise military talks with General Xu Qiliang, vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. Chinese state-run media accused Austin of ignoring diplomatic protocol by failing to request a meeting with his civilian counterpart, Defence Minister Wei Fenghe.

So-called mil-to-mil contact dropped to 11 meetings in 2019 from over 40 at their peak in 2013, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And no leader-level defence talks were held at all between August 2020 and April 2022.

Some see an opportunity for dialogue, however limited, on the margins of the June Shangri-La Dialogue that Austin and Wei are scheduled to attend. “You have to start somewhere,” said Hsiao of the International Crisis Group. “The consequences are so large.”

Another problem: during past crises – including the EP-3 downing, the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait crisis and accidental 1999 US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, capital of then Yugoslavia – China did not answer the phone. Hotlines too often ring in “empty rooms”, Kurt Campbell, US President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, said last year.

Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said the two countries had “smooth communication channels” but added that the US military’s activity in the Pacific was a threat to regional peace and stability.

Thornton, who was based in China in 2001, said that behind something as seemingly simple as a hotline were stark structural differences.

China’s Communist Party-led system, especially under President Xi Jinping, seeks to speak with one, centralised, authoritative voice that is not corrected. After a major mishap, days or weeks are needed to investigate, game the political odds and reach a consensus.

Some lower-level military official answering the phone could potentially limit party leeway, while even communication at the very highest level carries risks. The US media could spin the incident. And the call could be view by nationalists as America bullying the Chinese. “It would be very difficult for Xi Jinping to take a call from a US president after some accident like this happened and someone died,” said Thornton.

The US system, by contrast, is decentralised, noisy, leaky and has no problem spouting uninformed views in keeping with a raucous democracy. Sailors or pilots post photos almost immediately, and the Pentagon often issues shifting statements as information becomes available.

Experts fear that damage from any future flash point could be far greater than the months-long impact of the EP-3 crisis, when the two countries were relatively friendly with China having just joined the World Trade Organization.

“Now the problem is social media, you have 500 other crises going on, people have to have an immediate explanation for what’s happened,” Thornton said. “You want to blame somebody else because politics are so bad, so it would be much harder to de-escalate – and much more likely to escalate into some kind of conflict.”

 

[jward]

Thailand and Vietnam to plan jointly raise rice prices - May 2022
Today, 08:42 PM



Thailand and Vietnam jointly raise rice prices, what will be the impact
May 29, 2022 21:04 Beijing News Author: Beijing News


　　On May 27, a Thai government spokesman said that Thailand and Vietnam plan to jointly raise rice prices. After wheat and sugar, the Indian government may also tighten rice exports in order to ensure sufficient domestic supply.

　　On January 5, 2021, the American magazine National Interest published an article "Top Ten Global Security Risks and Opportunities in 2021", in which the food crisis was listed. The article argues that the world is on the brink of the worst food crisis in 50 years, citing the United Nations as saying that "more people will die from malnutrition and related diseases than from Covid-19".

　　Fortunately, this prediction did not come true in 2021; unfortunately, it is gradually coming true in 2022. Since the beginning of this year, the food crisis has become a high-frequency word reported by the media, constantly tugging at the heartstrings of ordinary people.

　　The three major staples, only rice, has not been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

　　From an academic point of view, there are two main types of food crises. One is the absolute food crisis, that is, the food production on the earth is not enough for the consumption of the entire population. This was more common before the Industrial Revolution. The other is the relative food crisis, that is, although the total amount of food is sufficient, some people cannot obtain enough food due to distribution reasons.

　　The food crisis in the modern sense mainly refers to the latter - the relative food crisis. If we continue to subdivide, there are two main reasons for the relative food crisis. One is that food cannot be obtained because of transportation, and the other is that food cannot be bought because of price. In 2022, the coexistence of these two factors will undoubtedly exacerbate the current relative food crisis.

　　The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused Russia and Ukraine, two important grain exporting countries, to actively or passively leave the international grain market. Because of Western economic sanctions, Russia's grain exports have been greatly reduced, and as a major producer of fertilizer raw materials, it has directly affected the global fertilizer supply. Ukraine, as the "granary of Europe", has greatly weakened its grain export capacity because of the military conflict.

　　After the export of wheat and corn was blocked, rice became the only food crop among the three major staples that was not affected by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It was once considered to be the main food that helped prevent the world food crisis from worsening.

　　Against this background, Thailand and Vietnam plan to jointly raise the price of rice for export, which is tantamount to further adding fuel to the already highly tense grain market.


　　Thailand and Vietnam join forces to improve the bargaining power of the grain market

　　Rice is Thailand's largest agricultural export. The Thai government forecasts that the country will export at least 8 million tonnes of rice in 2022, a four-year high. Thailand is the world's second largest exporter of rice, and Vietnam ranks third. Vietnam and Thailand account for about 10 percent of global brown rice production and about 26 percent of global exports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This ratio is enough to affect the global rice market.

　　Thailand and Vietnam plan to jointly raise the price of rice this time, which is also intended to further improve the bargaining power of the two countries in the world agricultural product market.

　　More importantly, India, another major grain exporter, is also likely to participate in raising the price of rice or restricting rice exports. Because India exports a large amount of food, not because of its large amount of food, but to earn foreign exchange. This also means that once domestic food is tight, India will also limit food exports.

　　In fact, following the restrictions on wheat exports, there have been media reports that India is considering imposing restrictions on rice exports. In the total global rice exports, India accounted for as high as 44%.


　　At present, the food crisis has caused large-scale social unrest and government change in Sri Lanka. If it cannot be contained in a timely and effective manner, it may also trigger political crises in many countries and bring about a new round of political turmoil. Russia has recently proposed conditions for opening relevant ports and resuming Ukrainian grain exports, while India is preparing to ship 40,000 tons of rice to Sri Lanka.

　　At this time, if Thailand and Vietnam really join hands to increase the price of exported rice, there is no doubt that it will further increase global food prices and global inflation, and worsen the prospect of global food security.

　　In fact, crops need a growth cycle. If the international market cannot increase food supply in the short term, food protectionism will inevitably rise, and food will increasingly become a "weapon" with geopolitical value.

　　However, the current food crisis is not an absolute food crisis after all. As long as all countries in the world abandon short-sighted self-interest and do not "weaponize" food supply, it is possible to solve this crisis through cooperation. This kind of cooperation is especially valuable in today's intensified geopolitical game.

zhttps://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-05-29/doc-imizirau5474566.shtml?cre=tianyi&mod=pcpager_news& loc=2&r=0&rfunc=45&tj=cxvertical_pc_pager_news&tr= 340#/

 

[jward]

Stephen Dziedzic
@stephendziedzic
2m

China’s Ambassador confirms China will shelve (for now) its proposal for a sweeping Pacific regional agreement which was leaked last week. He says there’s “general support” for it in the Pacific but concerns about “specific issues”

 

[jward]

North Korea to Head UN Disarmament Forum, 40 NGOs Urge Walk-out

• May 26, 2022

GENEVA, May 26, 2022 — North Korea on Monday will take over as chair of the world disarmament forum which negotiated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, sparking an appeal (see text below) by over 40 UN-accredited non-governmental organizations for UN chief Antonio Guterres, the U.S., Canada, UK, EU states and other democracies to strongly protest, and for their ambassadors to walk out of the conference during the four weeks of the North Korean presidency, starting on May 30, 2022.
The 65-nation Conference on Disarmament, based in Geneva, is considered the cornerstone of nuclear disarmament efforts. The UN-backed body calls itself “the single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum of the international community.”
“Having the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-un preside over global nuclear weapons disarmament will be like putting a serial rapist in charge of a women’s shelter,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of UN Watch, a Geneva-based non-governmental organization that monitors the United Nations, and which spearheaded the joint protest.
“This is a country that threatens to attack other UN member states with missiles, and that commits atrocities against its own people. Torture and starvation are routine in North Korean political prison camps where an estimated 100,000 people are held in what is one of the world’s most dire human-rights situations,” said Neuer.

Under UN rules, the North Korean ambassador to the forum, Mr. Han Tae Song, will help organize the work of the conference and assist in setting the agenda.
He will exercise all functions of a presiding officer, and represent the body in its relations with states, the General Assembly and other organs of the United Nations, and with other international organizations.
While the post is largely formal, “North Korea holding the president’s gavel is liable to seriously undermine the image and credibility of the United Nations, and will send absolutely the worst message,” said Neuer.
“At a time when China, Cuba, Libya, Kazakhstan and Venezuela are sitting on the UN’s human rights council, this won’t help.”

North Korea is world’s foremost weapons proliferator
“North Korea is the world’s foremost weapons proliferator. The regime builds its own nuclear weapons in contravention of its treaty commitments. Pyongyang sells missile and atomic know-how to other rogue regimes in blatant violation of U.N. sanctions,” said Neuer.
Yesterday, Pyongyang fired three missiles, including one thought to be its largest intercontinental ballistic missile, the latest in a string of banned ballistic missile launches that the country has carried out this year.
“If the U.N. seeks to be an institution with a moral compass, it cannot allow the likes of North Korea to head arms control agencies, and to keep electing the world’s worst abusers on its top human rights body,” said Neuer.

Democracies should walk out
“UN Watch urges the U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Germany, and all other member and observer states to refuse to send ambassadors to any meeting of this UN forum that is being chaired by North Korea. The U.S. and Canada pulled out while Iran was chair in 2013, and should do so again,” said Neuer.
It as “a fundamental conflict of interests to have North Korea as president of a disarmament forum, an act liable to be exploited by North Korean propaganda, to legitimize Kim Jong-un’s cruel regime,” said Neuer.
“A country that flagrantly violates UN Security Council resolutions explicitly prohibiting its ballistic missile launches should be barred from any formal positions in UN bodies dealing with the such vital matters as nuclear weapons disarmament,” said Neuer.

North Korea has continued developing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs in 2021 in violation of UN sanctions and despite the country’s worsening economic situation, UN sanctions monitors reported in August.
“The North Korean regime of Kim Jong-un simply cannot be a credible chair of this or any other United Nations body. North Korea’s illegal development of nuclear weapons, in breach of its disarmament obligations, run counter to the objectives and principles of the Conference on Disarmament itself.”
“North Korea’s chairmanship will only undermine the integrity of both the disarmament framework and of the United Nations, and no country should support that.”
North Korea will assume the presidency of the Conference on Disarmament on May 30 and hold it over four weeks, until June 24.

About the Conference of Disarmament
The Conference of Disarmament (CD) reports to the UN General Assembly and is billed by the UN as “the single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum of the international community.”
Established in 1979 after a special UN General Assembly session, the CD is made up of 65 countries who have been divided in recent years on key issues.
The conference and its predecessors have negotiated such major multilateral arms limitation and disarmament agreements as:
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
• Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction
• Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction
• Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques
• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

UN Sanctions on North Korea for Illicit Nuclear and Missile Activities
The United Nations Security Council has adopted at least nine major sanctions resolutions on North Korea in response to the country’s illicit nuclear and missile activities since 2006. Each resolution condemns North Korea’s latest nuclear and ballistic missile activity and calls on North Korea to cease its illicit activity, which violates previous UN Security Council resolutions.
In addition to imposing sanctions, the resolutions give UN member states the authority to interdict and inspect North Korean cargo within their territory, and subsequently seize and dispose of illicit shipments.
______

CIVIL SOCIETY APPEAL TO PROTEST NORTH KOREA AS CHAIR OF CONFERENCE OF DISARMAMENT
The undersigned non-governmental and human rights organizations call on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the United States, the European Union and all other democracies to strongly protest North Korea’s absurd chairmanship of the UN-backed Conference on Disarmament, starting on May 30, 2022, and for all ambassadors to walk out during the four weeks of the rogue regime’s presidency.
North Korea is a country that threatens to attack other UN member states with missiles, and that commits atrocities against its own people. Torture and starvation are routine in North Korean political prison camps where an estimated 100,000 people are held in what is one of the world’s most dire human-rights situations.
As Chair of the world’s top disarmament forum, North Koren Ambassador Han Tae Song will help organize the work of the conference and assist in setting the agenda, exercise all functions of a presiding officer, and represent the body in its relations with states, the General Assembly and other organs of the United Nations, and with other international organizations.

North Korea holding the president’s gavel is liable to seriously undermine the image and credibility of the United Nations, and will send absolutely the worst message. At a time when China, Cuba, Eritrea, Libya, Kazakhstan and Venezuela are sitting on the UN’s human rights council, this will only further erode the standing of the United Nations.
North Korea is the world’s foremost weapons proliferator. The regime builds its own nuclear weapons in contravention of its treaty commitments. Pyongyang sells missile and atomic know-how to other rogue regimes in blatant violation of UN sanctions.
Kim Jong-un has carried out a dozen ballistic missile tests since the beginning of the year, threatens to carry out more, and, according to intelligence assessments, may be ready to resume underground nuclear testing.
If the UN seeks to be an institution with a moral compass, it cannot allow the likes of North Korea to direct arms control agencies.
We therefore urge the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Australia and all other states to refuse to send ambassadors or other delegates to any meeting of this UN forum that is being chaired by North Korea.
We recall that several countries rightly pulled out of this forum when the Iranian regime became the head in 2013, and under Syrian Assad regime’s presidency in 2018, and we urge all states to stand up for the credibility of the United Nations by doing so again when North Korea outrageously is handed the gavel.
Sincerely,
United Nations Watch, Switzerland
Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, United States
The Family Research Council, United States
International Network of Liberal Women, Netherlands
World Federation of Methodist and Uniting Church Women, UK
International Association for Water Law, Italy
Asociación Española para el Derecho Internacional de los Derechos Humanos, Spain
Thin and High, United States
Structural Analysis of Cultural Systems, Germany
Edmund Rice International, Switzerland
Romanian Independent Society of Human Rights
Lebanese American Renaissance Partnership, Lebanon
Institute of Noahide Code, United States
Society for the Widows and Orphans, Nigeria
InnerCity Mission for Children, Nigeria
Riba Foundation, United States
India Media Centre, India
Business and Professional Women Voluntary Organization, Sudan
Educational Foundation for African Women, Nigeria
Amis de l’Afrique Francophone-Bénin, Benin
Ashiana Collective Development Council, Pakistan
Kinder in Kenia, Switzerland
Global Academy Institute of Technology Foundation Inc., Philippines
Association Mauritanienne des Droits de l’Homme, Mauritania
Welfare Togo, Togo
Association Mouvement pour la Défense de l’Humanité et l’Abolition de la Torture, Cameroon
Save the Climat, Democratic Republic of Congo
Vivekananda Sevakendra-O-Sishu Uddyan, India
Credo-Action, Togo
World Jewish Congress, United States
Buddies Association of Volunteers for Orphans, Disabled and Abandoned Children, Cameroon
Global Economist Forum, Bangladesh
Association pour la promotion de la lutte contre les vîolences faites aux femmes et la participation au développement de la Femme Africaine, Cameroon
Coup de Pouce, Democratic Republic of Congo
NGOs Computer Literacy, Shelter Welfare, Pakistan
VIVAT International, United States
Forum méditerranéen pour la promotion des droits du citoyen, Morocco
MIROSLAVA International Alliance, Ukraine
Liberians United to Expose Hidden Weapons, Liberia
Sisters of Charity Federation, United States
Global Vision India Foundation, India
Peter-Hesse-Stiftung (Solidarity in Partnership for One World), Germany
Karlen Communications, Canada
Halley Movement for Social and Community Development, Mauritius
Foundation of International Servant leadership Exchange Association, Republic of Korea
Asian Marine Conservation Association, India
Major Alliance Education Centre, Tanzania
Youth for a Better World, United States
Kikandwa Rural Communities Development Organization, Uganda
Victims of Crisis Aid Society, Nigeria
Le Comité français des ONG pour la liaison et l’information des Nations Unies, France
Fondation Espoir et Vie Pays, Democratic Republic of Congo
———————————
Statement by Timothy Cho, North Korean Escapee and Human Rights Advocate
Democracies must walk away as North Korea chairs UN Conference on Disarmament this week
As a North Korean escapee and an Inquiry Clerk for the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, I am shocked by the unbelievable news that North Korea will chair a 65 nation UN-backed Conference on Disarmament from Monday, May 30th, 2022.
This news recalls my memories in North Korean prison cell and my inmates screaming and begging to live, during my two attempted escapes and four times imprisonment in China and North Korea, it is still vivid and terrifying, and in my ears and eyes.

This single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum of the international community will discuss the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Prohibition of the production and stockpiling of biological weapons, and Prohibition of the development, stockpiling and use of chemical weapons.
But all these multilateral arms limitations and disarmament agreements are completely denied by North Korea, and they continued testing, developing, producing and even using its chemical weapons ‘VX nerve agent’ to assassinate Kim Jong-Un’s half brother Kim Jong-Nam at the Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia in 2017.
Then just last week, North Korea launched three intercontinental and short-range ballistic missiles and so far over twenty intercontinental and short-range ballistic missiles, rockets, and nuclear weapons testing in the past six months. This is all upon the United Nations Security Council’s adoption of nine major sanctions resolutions on North Korea in response to the country’s illicit nuclear and missile activities since 2006. Each resolution condemns North Korea’s latest nuclear and ballistic missile activity and calls on North Korea to cease its illicit activity of threat to regional peace and security, which violates United Nations Security Council resolutions.
We must remember that all these weapons of mass destruction in North Korea are not for the millions of hungry and suppressed people. It is for the regime that they need all these weapons to rule their own people and to preserve the darkest and most totalitarian systems in the 21st century.

North Korea does not have any qualifications to chair the UN-backed conference because they have completely abandoned the state’s primary responsibility to protect their own citizens from hunger and abuses. North Korean leaders are committing crimes against humanity, starvation, oppression, persecution, imprisonment, torture, execution, forced abortion, enforced disappearance and three-generation punishment, as the UN Commission of Inquiry report 2014 concludes that – North Korea’s human rights violations make it “a state without parallel” in the contemporary world.
The United Nations must not allow the DPRK to chair the UN-backed conference in the first place, and therefore I urge all democratic representatives of the United Nations to stand up for the voiceless people of North Korea and walk away from this conference. Likewise when several countries rightly pulled out of this when the Iranian regime became the head in 2013, and under Syrian Assad regime’s presidency in 2018.
I and my North Korean brothers and sisters are not born for this chain of life in darkness, persecution and injustice in large prison society. 74 years is enough.
In solidarity,
Timothy Cho
Human Rights Advocate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Under the presidency of Kim Jong-un's North Korean regime, the world disarmament forum will tomorrow meet to address “Cessation of the nuclear arms race and nuclear disarmament.” On Wednesday, they'll address “Prevention of nuclear war, including all related matters.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531229229723049985

View: https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1531229229723049985?s=20&t=a5xOXKimemRvCIE-ElLWyw

North Korea thanked

Cuba for “working tirelessly & effectively” in its presidency last month. North Korea will “do its utmost to promote the substantive work of the Conference” & at the plenary this week will outline the goals for its presidency.

 

[nomifyle]

None of this crap would be happening if Trump was still president.

 

[Zagdid]

- Republic World

www.republicworld.com

Last Updated: 30th May, 2022 15:02 IST
South Korean Ship Conducts Survey In Japan's EEZ Without Prior Permission, Sparks Outrage
South Korea's ship conducted a survey near the disputed islands of Japan, the Pacific countries said on Sunday. In a statement, Japanese Foreign Ministry said.
Written By Riya Baibhawi

A South Korean ship conducted a survey near the disputed islands of Japan, the Pacific countries said on Sunday. In a statement, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said that the research vessel named ‘Hae Yang 2000” was found to have extended a wire-like object into the sea off the pair of islets which come under Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The ministry asserted that Seoul did not take any prior permission for the same.

Later on, it added that the Korean administration admitted to having carried out the survey. Following this, Tokyo lodged a protest with top South Korean diplomats about carrying out such surveys within Japan’s EEZ without prior consent. It is pertinent to note that the rocky outcrops ‘Dokdo’ has long been a bone of contestation between both the neighbour countries. The islets, currently controlled by South Korea, are claimed by Japan.

Tensions in Indo-Pacific have risen considerably in recent times vis-a-vis contrasting claims on the South China Sea and its islands. Just recently, the newly elected Phillipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has stated that he would uphold a previous ruling on the disputed waters of the South China Sea. In 2016, the Hague based Permanent Court of Arbitration rejected China's claims on the South China Sea and areas inside the ‘nine-dash line’ and ruled in favour of the Philippines, which currently has operational control over the Thitu islands. On Friday, Marcos said that he would not “allow a single millimetre” of his country’s maritime coastal rights to be “trampled upon.”

 

[Pinecone]

F the UN

 

[jward]

capitalator.com

WSJ News Exclusive | China and the U.S. Are Arranging an In-Person Meeting Between Heads of Defense
Rayan Arnold

5-7 minutes


China and the U.S. are working to finalize what would be the first face-to-face meeting between their top defense officials on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore in June amid rising tensions over Taiwan, according to people familiar with the situation.

U.S. Defense Secretary
has said he will travel to the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual defense conference to be held this year June 10-12. The attendance of Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe hasn’t been announced, but he intends to participate in person, according to the people.

Defense ministers and other officials typically meet in private before and during the conference. A meeting between Mr. Austin and Gen. Wei would take on extra significance because of increased tension between the U.S. and China over Taiwan.
Beijing reacted angrily after President Biden

said during a recent visit to Tokyo that the U.S. would get involved militarily in response to any Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China says should be governed by Beijing.
Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe’s last face-to-face encounter with his American counterpart came in November 2019.


Gen. Wei, who was the commander of China’s strategic missile force and was appointed defense minister in 2018, held talks with then acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan
during the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2019. The event, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, didn’t take place in 2020 and 2021 because of the pandemic.
The people cautioned that a meeting between Gen. Wei and Mr. Austin had not been fixed and plans could still change. China’s Ministry of Defense didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, and a Pentagon press officer said there was no information immediately available about a meeting.

Mr. Austin and Gen. Wei spoke for the first time by phone in April. The two discussed defense relations, regional security issues and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the Pentagon’s account of the call.
In the China Defense Ministry’s slightly different summary of that conversation, Gen. Wei said it would have a “disruptive impact” on China-U.S. relations if the Taiwan question isn’t handled well, and that China’s military would defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.
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In Today’s Paper
A complete list, with links, of every article from the day’s Journal.
There are no clear signs China intends to attempt to seize Taiwan by force, but it hasn’t ruled out the use of its military to try to bring the island under its control.
U.S. administrations have long maintained a policy of not clarifying whether the U.S. military would intervene if China invaded Taiwan, an approach intended to deter a conflict. Following his comments in Tokyo, Mr. Biden said U.S. policy toward Taiwan hasn’t changed.
The Chinese defense minister’s last face-to-face encounter with his American counterpart came in Bangkok in November 2019, when he met with then Defense Secretary
Mark Esper.

Mr. Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee earlier this month that he expected to meet with Gen. Wei in Singapore and hoped a face-to-face encounter would “promote security and stability in the region.”
“We both recognize the importance of a dialogue and maintaining open channels,” said Mr. Austin. “I look forward to again engaging him in the future—in the not-too-distant future.”
The Asian security summit has been used as a venue for Chinese and American military officials to lower the temperature on the array of hostilities between Washington and Beijing. In 2018, Gen. Wei met with his American counterpart,

Jim Mattis, and invited the latter for a visit to Beijing.
Mr. Mattis traveled to Beijing a few weeks later for meetings with Gen. Wei and President Xi Jinping. The Chinese defense ministry said the visit “yielded positive, constructive results.”
Preparations are also being made for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
to make the keynote speech at the start of this year’s conference, according to people familiar with the planning. An appearance by Mr. Kishida as keynote speaker would be the first by a Japanese prime minister since Shinzo Abe
gave a speech to open the 2014 conference.

Mr. Kishida has said Japan plans to significantly increase defense spending because of increasing threats in the region, and has said Tokyo should consider developing its own ability to hit enemy military bases that threaten Japan.
A Japanese foreign ministry spokesman said it wasn’t yet decided whether Mr. Kishida would speak at the Singapore conference.

Japan is concerned about a possible conflict over Taiwan because of the close proximity of its southern island chain, including the island of Okinawa, which hosts major U.S. military bases.
Gen. Wei is unusually blunt for a Chinese leader. During the 2019 gathering in Singapore, he caused a stir by commenting openly on the Chinese military’s bloody suppression of the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests in 1989. He said military action was the best choice available at the time, and credited it with opening a path to China’s peaceful development in the following decades.

WSJ News Exclusive | China and the U.S. Are Arranging an In-Person Meeting Between Heads of Defense

China and the U.S. are working to finalize what would be the first face-to-face meeting between their top defense officials on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore in June amid rising tensions over Taiwan, according to people familiar with the situation. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin...

capitalator.com

WSJ News Exclusive | China and the U.S. Are Arranging an In-Person Meeting Between Heads of Defense

Both countries are working to finalize what would be the first face-to-face meeting between their current top defense officials on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore.

www.wsj.com

 

[jward]

Apparently no memorial day nuclear testing- y.e.t.


Coronavirus: North Korea rolls back lockdown, says virus flare-up ‘controlled’ thanks to Kim Jong-un’s policies

• North Korea has not allowed in outside workers to help with the pandemic or verify numbers for the public health crisis that could overwhelm its medical system
• The state’s official media said daily cases have fallen by about 75 per cent from a peak of 392,920 two weeks ago

Published: 11:55am, 30 May, 2022
Updated: 3:41pm, 30 May, 2022



North Korea removed virus lockdown measures that had been in place for more than two weeks in its capital, news reports indicated, after saying policies by leader Kim Jong-un have controlled the country’s first Covid-19 outbreak. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

North Korea removed virus lockdown measures that had been in place for more than two weeks in its capital, news reports indicated, after saying policies by leader Kim Jong-un have controlled the country’s first Covid outbreak.
Kim’s regime partially lifted the lockdown in Pyongyang and eased curbs in “stabilised areas,” Yonhap News Agency of South Korea on Monday reported diplomatic sources as saying. Residents in Pyongyang were allowed to leave their homes for the first time since May 12 and business were slowly opening, NK News on Sunday reported sources in the isolated state as saying.

North Korea has not allowed in outside workers to help with the pandemic or verify any of its numbers for the public health crisis that could have overwhelmed its antiquated medical system – and posed a threat to Kim’s regime. It and Eritrea are the only two countries that have not administered vaccines, putting their people at increased risk.

Seoul plans to provide vaccines to North as Covid situation ‘appears serious’

13 May 2022


Kim rolled back lockdown measures hours after leading a Politburo meeting on Sunday, NK News said. The state’s official media said the same day “the pandemic situation is being controlled and improved across the country,” with another report saying daily cases have fallen by about 75 per cent from a peak of 392,920 two weeks ago.

Residents are still required to undergo “temperature checks, use hand sanitiser and follow the instructions of pandemic response workers,” NK News added.
North Korea has not called the hundreds of thousands of fever cases “Covid” likely because it does not have enough testing kits to confirm that the cases were caused by the coronavirus.

Kim mobilised troops to try contain the spread of what the state calls a “malicious” epidemic and his propaganda apparatus kicked into high gear in a campaign to stop the spread. State media has tried to portray as Kim pushing ahead with pandemic control efforts and pinned the blame for shortcomings on cadres who have not followed his guidance.
N Korea reports 88,500 more Covid cases – but tiny death rate

28 May 2022


North Korea previously said it had escaped the pandemic – a claim doubted by officials in the US, Japan and elsewhere. Kim was probably forced to admit there was a problem when a spread of infections in Pyongyang this month became too big to hide, analysts said.
Kim, meanwhile, has been putting on a display of the country’s military might. His state fired off three ballistic missiles on May 12, a few hours after saying it had Covid in its borders the first time. It fired another barrage of three missiles on May 25, just hours after US President Joe Biden wrapped up a visit to the region, testing his efforts to strengthen defence ties with South Korea and Japan.


The easing of the lockdown comes after China reported new Covid-19 cases in cities bordering North Korea. The US and South Korea has offered to provide Covid vaccines to North Korea, but Pyongyang is yet to respond to the offer, according to Washington and Seoul.

North Korea says virus flare-up ‘controlled’, rolls back lockdown

Residents in Pyongyang were allowed to leave their homes for the first time since May 12 and business were slowly opening according to media reports on Sunday.

www.scmp.com

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....

US to seek new UN sanctions if North Korea holds nuke test - Boston News, Weather, Sports | WHDH 7News

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United States said Tuesday it will push for additional sanctions on North Korea if it conducts a new nuclear test<a class="excerpt-read-more" href="https://whdh.com/news/us-to-seek-new-un-sanctions-if-north-korea-holds-nuke-test/">Read More</a>

whdh.com

US to seek new UN sanctions if North Korea holds nuke test
BY ASSOCIATED PRESS
MAY 31, 2022

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United States said Tuesday it will push for additional sanctions on North Korea if it conducts a new nuclear test explosion.

U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials have said North Korea could soon conduct its first nuclear test in nearly five years.

On Thursday, China and Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution sponsored by the United States that would have imposed tough new sanctions on North Korea for a spate of launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear warheads. The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13-2 and marked a first serious division among the five veto-wielding permanent members over a North Korea sanctions resolution.

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield was asked Tuesday whether the U.S. would seek new sanctions if the North conducted another nuclear test. “We absolutely will,” she said.

A united Security Council imposed sanctions after North Korea’s first nuclear test explosion in 2006 and tightened them over the years in a total of 10 resolutions seeking — so far unsuccessfully — to rein in its nuclear and ballistic missile programs by cutting its sources of revenue.

Last Wednesday, North Korea launched its 17th round of missiles this year, an escalation of weapons tests that experts have said is part of leader Kim Jong Un’s efforts to expand the country’s arsenal and apply more pressure on its rivals to obtain relief from current sanctions and other concessions.

Thomas-Greenfield said the sanctions already in place need to be enforced. And if North Korea tests another nuclear weapon, she added, “We certainly, as we attempted in this last resolution, will push for additional sanctions.”

She was asked about the timing of last Thursday’s vote, since China and Russia’s opposition to new sanctions was well known. They had proposed a resolution easing sanctions on North Korea, and some U.S. allies wanted to try to preserve council unity.

Thomas-Greenfield replied that the U.S. draft resolution had been discussed and considered for nine weeks while North Korea continued to test weapons in violation of Security Council resolutions.

“So, they heard very loudly and clearly that 13 members of the council stand strong in condemning what they are doing and they’re being protected by the Russians and the Chinese veto,” she said. “But now they know that the Russians and the Chinese have not been supported by the members of the council.”

After Thursday’s vote, France’s U.N. ambassador, Nicolas de Riviere, said the Chinese and Russia vetoes amounted “to protecting the North Korean regime and giving it a blank check to proliferate even further.”

“France will continue its efforts to ensure that the council is able to act and that it regains the unity it has had on this issue,” he said.

Under a U.N. General Assembly resolution adopted April 26, the 193-member world body is required for the first time to hold a debate on the situation that sparks a veto in the Security Council within 10 working days. Precedence on the list of speakers is given to the permanent member or members casting the veto.

General Assembly spokesperson Paulina Kubiak said the assembly will hold a meeting on the veto of the North Korea resolution on June 8, but she said she wasn’t in a position to confirm whether China or Russia would participate.

 

[jward]

I don't know what this means, but I do not like the sound of it.

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
30m

Update: | Reuters: The Chinese army says it has carried out combat patrol missions to test its readiness in the maritime area around Taiwan.

 

[Housecarl]

I don't know what this means, but I do not like the sound of it.

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
30m

Update: | Reuters: The Chinese army says it has carried out combat patrol missions to test its readiness in the maritime area around Taiwan.

Nor do I....

 

[northern watch]

From my email inbox

 

[jward]

Naval News
@navalnewscom
Jun 1

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced that the two countries will cooperate on developing a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) which could pave the way to K-SSN submarines

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531980877294616577

View: https://twitter.com/navalnewscom/status/1531980877294616577?s=20&t=rTBHmbMH51thk3gVe-lsqA

 

[jward]

globalnews.ca

Canada alarmed as Chinese fighter pilots ‘buzz’ Canadian planes over international waters
Mercedes Stephenson, Sean Boynton

6-8 minutes



Senior Canadian government officials are growing increasingly concerned over a dangerous escalation in aggression by Chinese fighter pilots in the skies above the Asia-Pacific region.

Multiple sources in the Canadian Forces and the federal government tell Global News that Chinese jets are repeatedly “buzzing” a Canadian surveillance plane that is part of a United Nations mission over international waters.
Those jets are frequently flying as close as 20 to 100 feet from the Canadian plane, sources say — so close that Canadian pilots can make eye contact with the Chinese pilots, and sometimes see them raising their middle fingers. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
“(That distance is) scary close at those high speeds, and it could lead to disaster in a crash,” said Charles Burton, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa.


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“You do it too much, and eventually, sometime, it’s going to go wrong.”
The Canadian CP-140 Aurora plane is currently taking part in Operation Neon, part of UN efforts to monitor sanctions against North Korea and prevent the rogue nation’s development of weapons of mass destruction. The plane is flown frequently by multiple rotating crews.
Sources tell Global News there have been approximately 60 of these types of intercepts with Chinese fighter jets since Christmas, over two dozen of which have been deemed dangerous.
The Department of National Defence confirmed details of the incidents to Global News, which a spokesperson said are “of concern and of increasing frequency.”
“In some instances, the (Canadian) air crew felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft,” the spokesperson said.
The Canadian government has sent multiple diplomatic reprimands to Beijing about the incidents, according to the sources, calling the Chinese pilots’ conduct “unsafe and unprofessional.” China is not believed to have responded to those reprimands, which have not stopped the incidents from continuing.

2:57 After Canada’s ban of Huawei’s 5G technology, what a Chinese retaliation could look like

After Canada’s ban of Huawei’s 5G technology, what a Chinese retaliation could look like – May 20, 2022
Burton says he’s worried about not only a potential mid-air collision as a result of the Chinese pilots’ behaviour, but also the risk of an international incident between Canada and China.

Trending Stories


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“I’m completely puzzled as to why China would take the risk of fomenting an international incident that could lead to extremely heightened tensions if the Chinese aircraft leads to loss of Canadian life,” he said.
“And the fact the Chinese government is not responding to Canadian concerns, (not) seeking to rein in this kind of adventurism, is also very concerning.”
Tensions between Canada and China have yet to recover from the nearly three-year-long detention of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou by Canada on U.S. fraud charges, and the subsequent imprisonment of Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor in China. All three were released last September after Meng struck a deal with U.S. prosecutors.
Last month, Canada banned Huawei and fellow Chinese telecom giant ZTE from contributing equipment to its growing 5G network, further angering Beijing.
Billie Flynn, a retired squadron commander for the Royal Canadian Air Force and former F-35 fighter jet test pilot, says the Aurora the Canadians are flying — which he called “a big, lumbering plane” — would have difficulty manoeuvring away from a fighter jet flying so close.
“It’d be terrifying for (the Aurora pilot) to do any kind of evasive manoeuvre, because they might trip the Chinese fighter pilot into doing something even more irresponsible and more dangerous,” he told Global News.


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“The best they can do is fly along and hope the Chinese fighter pilot disappears.”
Flynn added that the turbulence created by the fighter jet would put the Aurora pilot at even greater risk of losing control.
All of those factors would put the Aurora at the “mercy” of the skill of a nearby fighter jet pilot, he says.
“Being that aggressive, that much ‘hotdogging,’ suggests that (the Chinese pilots are) probably not that seasoned, not that good, which puts the Aurora crews at even more risk,” he said.

1:51 National security expert explains China’s use of the Overseas Affairs Office and United Front for espionage in Canada

National security expert explains China’s use of the Overseas Affairs Office and United Front for espionage in Canada – Apr 28, 2022
One source told Global News that before each mission, pilots and their commanders discuss potential risks and whether to proceed with a flight. The concern now, the source said, is that the “buzzing” tactic by Chinese fighter jet pilots is here to stay, raising the risk level for future flights.


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China has increased its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region over the last two years, particularly around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory. It has stepped up drills and manoeuvres around the island, and confirmed on Wednesday that it has conducted a combat “readiness patrol” in the sea and air in recent days.
The Chinese government has also continued to support North Korea economically and financially despite a renewed spate of rocket launches this year, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, which has drawn condemnation from its Asian neighbours and the West.
Last month, China and Russia vetoed new sanctions backed by the U.S. at the UN Security Council in response to North Korea’s weapons tests.
— with files from Marc-André Cossette


© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment

Canada alarmed as Chinese fighter pilots ‘buzz’ Canadian planes over international waters - National | Globalnews.ca

Multiple sources say Chinese fighter jets are repeatedly flying extremely close to Canadian intelligence planes over international waters, raising fears of a mid-air collision.

globalnews.ca

 

[jward]

Beijing urges US to cut military ties with Taiwan after defence chief Lloyd Austin’s remarks

• Foreign ministry says Beijing has always firmly opposed US arms sales to the island ‘which seriously infringe on China’s sovereignty’
• Lloyd Austin said the US would make available ‘defence articles and services’ needed to defend against ‘the Chinese threat’

Liu Zhen in Beijing
+ FOLLOW

Published: 9:58pm, 2 Jun, 2022

Updated: 10:31pm, 2 Jun, 2022

US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin called China’s security pact with Solomon Islands “a concerning precedent for the wider Pacific island region”. Photo: EPA-EFE

China has hit out at remarks by the US defence chief suggesting the United States is willing to expand arms sales and military training to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.
US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin told Nikkei Asia that “the United States will make available to Taiwan defence articles and services necessary to enable it to maintain a sufficient self-defence capability commensurate with the Chinese threat”.
Austin made the remarks in an interview with the news outlet published on Wednesday, ahead of a trip to Asia next week.


Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian urged the US to abide by the one-China principle. Photo: AP
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters on Thursday that Beijing had always firmly opposed US arms sales to Taiwan, “which seriously infringe on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and seriously interfere in China’s internal affairs”.




He again urged the US to abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiques, to stop selling arms to Taiwan and to end military ties with the island.
Tensions have been rising across the Taiwan Strait, and it remains a potential military flashpoint. US President Joe Biden’s comment last week that the US would be willing to defend Taiwan in the event of a mainland Chinese attack has also thrown doubt on Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the issue.

In the written interview with Nikkei Asia, Austin said Taiwan and Ukraine were “two highly different scenarios” when asked if the US would not rule out sending forces in the event of a Taiwan Strait contingency. The US has said it would not send troops to fight Russian forces in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army is ramping up pressure on Taiwan. PLA spokesman Senior Colonel Shi Yi on Wednesday called this week’s drills near the island “necessary action” against “collusion” between Taiwan and the US.

Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to take the island under its control by force, if necessary. Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but maintains unofficial ties and continues to sell arms to Taiwan.

Austin also commented on Beijing’s recent security deal with Solomon Islands, calling it “a concerning precedent for the wider Pacific island region”. He said the Aukus defence pact between the US, Australia and Britain was a “pathfinder”, and highlighted other American alliances in the region, with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

“The Department of Defence remains committed to upholding a rules-based international order and reinforcing a free and open Indo-Pacific region, including by opposing Beijing’s attempts to coerce its neighbours and assert illegal claims in the South China Sea,” Austin was quoted as saying.

In response, Zhao from the Chinese foreign ministry said the US should stop “creating political antagonism and military confrontation in the region, and play a constructive role in enhancing mutual trust and cooperation among regional countries” if it wanted to maintain freedom, stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

Beijing urges US to cut military ties with Taiwan after Austin’s remarks

Foreign ministry says Beijing has always opposed US arms sales to the island after defence chief said United States would make available ‘defence articles and services’ needed to defend against ‘the Chinese threat’.

www.scmp.com

 

[jward]

Hmm. allies involved means nothing good, I'm guessing.





EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
6h

Update: Washington: North Korea is about to conduct a seventh nuclear explosion test and we are coordinating with allies.

 

[northern watch]

Satellite images suggest new Chinese carrier close to launch
Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show China’s most advanced aircraft carrier to date appears to be nearing completion and experts suggest the vessel could be launched soon
By Jon Gambrell and David Rising Associated Press
June 03, 2022, 11:36 AM

BANGKOK -- China’s most advanced aircraft carrier to date appears to be nearing completion, satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed Friday, as experts suggested the vessel could be launched soon.

The newly developed Type 003 carrier has been under construction at the Jiangnan Shipyard northeast of Shanghai since 2018. Satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC on May 31 suggest work on the vessel is close to done.

The launch has been long anticipated, and constitutes what the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank called a “seminal moment in China’s ongoing modernization efforts and a symbol of the country’s growing military might.”

CSIS noted in a report that China often pairs military milestones with existing holidays and anniversaries. It suggested that the vessel could be launched as soon as Friday to coincide with the national Dragon Boat Festival, as well as the 157th anniversary of the founding of the Jiangnan Shipyard.

In the satellite images, the carrier’s deck can be clearly seen. In an image taken Tuesday through wispy clouds, equipment behind the carrier appears to have been removed, a step toward flooding the entire drydock and floating the vessel. Pictures earlier this month showed work ongoing.

Cloud cover blocked Planet Labs satellites from capturing images of the shipyard from Wednesday to Friday.

China's Ministry of National Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Though no launch was announced, the state-run Global Times newspaper on Tuesday ran a story quoting reports that it “could be launched soon.”

It added that the Chinese navy in April had released a promotional video on the country's carrier program “in which it implied that the country's third aircraft carrier will be officially revealed soon.”

Though the U.S. Department of Defense estimates that the carrier won’t be fully operational until 2024, first needing to undergo extensive sea trials, the carrier is China’s most advanced yet. As with its space program, China has proceeded extremely cautiously in the development of aircraft carriers, seeking to apply only technologies that have been tested and perfected.

Its development is part of a broader modernization of China's military as it seeks to extend its influence in the region. China already has the largest navy in the world in terms of numbers of ships, but not near the capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

Among other assets, the U.S. Navy remains the world’s leader in aircraft carriers, with its forces able to muster 11 nuclear-powered vessels. The Navy also has nine amphibious assault ships, which can carry helicopters and vertical-takeoff fighter jets as well.

The expected launch of the new Chinese carrier comes as the U.S. has been increasing its focus on the region, including the South China Sea. The vast maritime region has been tense because six governments claim all or part of the strategically vital waterway, through which an estimated $5 trillion in global trade travels each year and which holds rich but fast declining fishing stocks and significant undersea oil and gas deposits.

China has been far and away the most aggressive in asserting its claim to virtually the entire waterway, its island features and resources.

The U.S. Navy has sailed warships past Chinese-held humanmade islands in the sea, which are equipped with airstrips and other military facilities. China insists its territory extends to those islands, while the Navy says it conducts the missions there to ensure the free flow of international trade.

Once mainly a coastal force, China's navy has in recent years expanded its presence into the Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific and beyond, setting up its first overseas base over the last decade in the African Horn nation of Djibouti, where the U.S., Japan and others also maintain a military presence.

The carrier is China’s second domestically developed carrier, following a Type 002 ship that is currently undergoing sea trials. Its other carrier is a modified former Soviet ship bought as a hulk from Ukraine and refurbished over several years as an experimental platform that nevertheless packs considerable combat capability with an airwing of Chinese-built fighters developed from the Russian Su-33.

In addition to being the largest of its three carriers, the new Type 003 class is fitted with a catapult launch system that will “enable it to support additional fighter aircraft, fixed-wing early-warning aircraft, and more rapid flight operations and thus extend the reach and effectiveness of its carrier-based strike aircraft,” the U.S. Defense Department said in its annual report to Congress on China’s military in November.

“In particular, the PRC’s (People’s Republic of China’s) aircraft carriers and planned follow-on carriers, once operational, will extend air defense coverage beyond the range of coastal and shipboard missile systems and will enable task group operations at increasingly longer ranges,” the Defense Department said, adding that the Chinese navy’s “emerging requirement for sea-based land-attack systems will also enhance the PRC’s ability to project power.”

China's existing carriers weigh in at about half the size of the U.S. Nimitz class flattops and displace about 100,000 tons fully loaded.

Experts from the Washington-based CSIS, which has been monitoring the construction for years, said in an analysis Thursday of different satellite images by Maxar Technologies, also taken Tuesday, that a smaller vessel had been moved out of the carrier's way, and that water now partially fills some of the dry dock.

But, they said, more work still needed to be done before the vessel could leave the dock.

“The staircases that workers use to access the carrier — as well as the support structures and other equipment that skirt the ship — will need to be removed,” CSIS said. “The caisson, which segments the dry dock and allows work to proceed simultaneously on multiple vessels, will also be opened to allow water to fill the entire dry dock.”

The Wall Street Journal first published the Maxar images of the vessel from the CSIS analysis.

——— Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Satellite images suggest new Chinese carrier close to launch - ABC News (go.com)

 

[jward]

hmm. :: shrug ::

Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

The United States is preparing a variety of contingencies in close coordination with Japan & SK as U.S. officials say that a North Korean nuclear test could be imminent. The U.S. is prepared to make military posture changes if a NK provocation takes place, per officials to AP.


8:18 PM · Jun 3, 2022·Twitter Web App

 

[Pinecone]

hmm. :: shrug ::
Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

The United States is preparing a variety of contingencies in close coordination with Japan & SK as U.S. officials say that a North Korean nuclear test could be imminent. The U.S. is prepared to make military posture changes if a NK provocation takes place, per officials to AP.


8:18 PM · Jun 3, 2022·Twitter Web App

I'm almost afraid to ask what any of that means. Thanks for all you do to keep us up on the latest news, jward.

 

[jward]

South Korea, U.S. stage rare drills with air carrier
By Hyonhee Shin


SEOUL, June 4 (Reuters) - South Korea and the United States staged their first combined military exercises involving an American aircraft carrier in more than four years, Seoul's military said on Saturday, amid reports that North Korea was preparing for a nuclear test.

The three-day drills took place in international waters off the Japanese island of Okinawa until Saturday, including air defence, anti-ship, anti-submarine, and maritime interdiction operations, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.


The exercises came amid signs that North Korea is gearing up to conduct a nuclear test for the first time since 2017. Seoul officials have said Pyongyang has conducted multiple experiments with a detonation device in preparation for its seventh underground explosion. read more

The USS Ronald Reagan, a 100,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, joined the drills, alongside the guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam, the Aegis-equipped USS Benfold destroyer, and the Fleet replenishment oiler USNS Big Horn, the JCS said.

South Korea also sent the 14,500-ton Marado amphibious landing ship, the 7,600-ton Sejong the Great destroyer, and the 4,400-ton Munmu the Great destroyer, among others.

It was the allies' first joint military exercise since South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol took office last month, and their first bilateral exercises involving an aircraft carrier since November 2017.

The South Korean and American flags fly next to each other at Yongin, South Korea, August 23, 2016. Courtesy Ken Scar/U.S. Army/Handout via REUTERS
"The exercise consolidated the two countries' determination to sternly respond to any North Korean provocations, while demonstrating the U.S. commitment to provide extended deterrence," the JCS said in a statement.

At a recent summit with Yoon, U.S. President Joe Biden promised to deploy "strategic assets" - which typically include aircraft carriers, long-range bomber aircraft or missile submarines - if necessary to deter North Korea as part of efforts to bolster the extended deterrence. read more

On Friday, nuclear envoys from the United States, South Korea and Japan met in Seoul to brace for "all contingencies." read more

The USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier, led U.S. military exercises in the Yellow Sea in March, after North Korea conducted a full test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time since 2017. The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group also operated in waters off the Korean peninsula in April.

During the last major flurry of North Korea's ICBM and nuclear tests in 2017, carriers USS Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt and Nimitz, and their multi-ship strike groups, deployed near the peninsula in a show of force.

North Korea has long criticised the U.S.-South Korea joint military drills as a rehearsal for war.

South Korea, U.S. stage rare drills with air carrier

The exercises came amid signs that North Korea is gearing up to conduct a nuclear test for the first time since 2017.

www.reuters.com

 

[jward]

You all are welcome.
We're happy to pitch in.

 

[jward]

Orikron
@orikron

Poll of south Koreans on what to do if the US attacks north Korea.

 

[jward]

North Korea launches at least one ballistic missile toward East Sea: JCS
First known DPRK weapons test in June follows rare joint military training between US and ROK last week
Chaewon Chung June 5, 2022

An image of a missile test released via DPRK state media in Sept. 2019 | Image: KCNA
North Korea launched at least one ballistic missile toward the East Sea, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced on Sunday morning.
The launch is North Korea’s first since testing an intercontinental ballistic missile and two other shorter-range missiles on May 25. The JCS is expected to release further details about Sunday’s missile launch as they become available.
Sunday’s missile event also follows Seoul’s announcement a day before that the U.S. and South Korea had staged rare joint military exercises involving a U.S. aircraft carrier from Thursday to Saturday.



Jesse Johnson
@jljzen
59s

BREAKING: Japanese Defense Ministry says North Korea has launched an apparent ballistic missile









Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks

BREAKING: North Korea fires 8 short-range ballistic missiles - Yonhap

 

[stormie]

So sorry Jward! I see you already posted this info.

 

[jward]

(LEAD) National Security Council convenes over N.K. missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
이해아

2 minutes


(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details; CHANGES headline)

SEOUL, June 5 (Yonhap) -- The National Security Council met Sunday to discuss North Korea's missile launches a day after South Korea and the United States held military exercises involving a U.S. aircraft carrier.
The meeting was presided over by National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han. A plenary session presided over by President Yoon Suk-yeol could be held later "if necessary," the presidential office said in a notice to reporters.
North Korea fired eight short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea earlier Sunday in its 18th show of force this year, according to South Korea's military.

The last time North Korea launched a missile was on May 25, when it tested one intercontinental ballistic missile and two short-range ballistic missiles as U.S. President Joe Biden was en route to Washington after visiting South Korea and Japan.
"A decision will be made on whether President Yoon will preside over a meeting following an internal assessment on how grave the situation is," a presidential official told Yonhap News Agency.

Yoon had initially planned to take part in volunteer work picking up trash along the Han River together with first lady Kim Keon-hee. After the missile tests, he canceled the plan and went to work at the presidential office.

National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han (Yonhap)
Posted for fair use

(LEAD) National Security Council convenes over N.K. missile launch | Yonhap News Agency

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details; CHANGES headline) SEOUL, June 5 (Yonhap) -- The ...

en.yna.co.kr

 

[jward]

Did you duplicate my post? Don't worry, we all do it : )

So sorry Jward! I see you already posted this info.

 

[jward]

Four B-1B Bombers Appear At Andersen AFB In Guam
Tyler Rogoway

3-4 minutes


A quartet of B-1B Bone bombers just arrived at Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam today. It isn't clear if the bombers will be staying as part of the now sporadic bomber presence deployments to the Indo-Pacific region or if they are there to take part in a major exercise, or both. Valiant Shield, a series of large multi-domain wargames is getting underway in the region. There have also been some rumors that a B-1 deployment was imminent as a deterrent and hedge against North Korean actions, including a potential nuclear test.
In 2020, it was announced that after 16 years of fulfilling the Continous Bomber Presence mission to Guam, the Pentagon would opt for a far less predictable deployment plan to the region for its bombers. What came after was a flurry of extremely long-range bomber patrols, many from the continental United States, to Russia's eastern borders and the tumultuous South China Sea, as well as shorter deployments to Guam or Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean by the USAF's B-1, B-52, and B-2 bomber force.
B-1Bs on deck at Andersen AFB as photographed on June 4th, 2022. PHOTO © 2022 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS

The last time we are aware of a significant bomber presence on Guam was in February of this year when B-52Hs deployed to the island for the annual Cope North multi-national military exercises.
The B-1 deployment comes as concerns grow over Guam's vulnerability to enemy attack, especially from a peer state like China, something The War Zone has highlighted for years. There are discussions about greatly expanding and fortifying the island's missile defense capabilities beyond the THAAD battery that is currently deployed there, as well as any ballistic missile defense-capable Aegis surface combatants deployed to counter such threats. Training to better survive a more limited attack is also well underway and one of the Army's only Iron Dome batteries has been deployed to the island in an experimental initiative at better contouring cruise missile threats.

The swing-wing B-1 still has a major place in the U.S. bomber force although it lacks nuclear weapons delivery capability. It is slated to be replaced by the dual-role B-21 in the coming decade. U.S. Air Force photo courtesy Sagar Pathak
It also comes as the B-1 fleet has experienced a much-needed reset of sorts after many years of supporting combat operations in the Middle East, as well as commitments elsewhere, like the Continuous Bomber Presence missions. 17 of the aging bombers — the worst of the lot — were retired in hopes of freeing up time, money, and spares to better support the remaining 45 B-1 fleet. These jets are also getting upgrades that will hopefully keep them relevant and capable until they are replaced by the B-21 Raider in the coming decade.

With a quartet of Bones — nearly 10 percent of the fleet — now at the highly strategic island outpost, it will be interesting to see where they show up throughout the region. While patrols around Russia's borders and the South China Sea are likely, as is participation in Valiant Shield, a resumption of patrols near North Korea would be a very important development to watch out for.
Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com

 

[jward]

S.Korea, US launch eight missiles in response to N.Korea launches
The South Korean and US militaries fired eight surface-to-surface missiles on Monday.
By REUTERS
Published: JUNE 6, 2022 02:36

Updated: JUNE 6, 2022 02:49

A surface-to-surface missile is launched during a joint live-firing exercise between US and South Korea in unidentified location, South Korea, May 25, 2022.
(photo credit: JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF/YONHAP VIA REUTERS)



South Korea and the United States fired eight surface-to-surface missiles early on Monday off South Korea's east coast in response to North Korea's short-range ballistic missile launches on Sunday, the South's Yonhap news agency reported on Monday.

The action is a demonstration of "the capability and readiness to carry out precision strike" against the source of North Korea's missile launches or the command and support centers, Yonhap cited the South Korean military as saying.

The militaries of South Korea and the United States fired eight surface-to-surface missiles for about 10 minutes starting at 4:45 a.m. on Monday in response to the eight missiles fired by the North on Sunday, it said.

A surface-to-surface missile is launched during a joint live-firing exercise between US and South Korea in unidentified location, South Korea, May 25, 2022. (credit: JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF/YONHAP VIA REUTERS)
North Korea's short-range ballistic missiles, fired towards the sea off its east coast on Sunday, were likely its largest single test and came a day after South Korea and the United States ended joint military drills.

Last month, the combined forces of South Korea and the United States fired missiles in response to North Korea's launch of ballistic missiles, which the two allies say are violations of UN Security Council resolutions.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office last month, has vowed to take a tougher line against the North and agreed with US President Joe Biden at a May summit in Seoul to upgrade joint military drills and their combined deterrence posture.

S.Korea, US launch eight missiles in response to N.Korea launches

The South Korean and US militaries fired eight surface-to-surface missiles on Monday.

www.jpost.com

 

[northern watch]

From my email inbox

 

[jward]

Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3


Surprise, surprise...despite both Cambodian and Chinese denials, Western official have confirmed that China is building a naval base in Cambodia, with a groundbreaking ceremony to occur this week.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533874728947134465

View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1533874728947134465?s=20&t=4_XRFaH05WcgEOdB3N3oFQ

From my email inbox

View attachment 343220

 

[Housecarl]

Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3


Surprise, surprise...despite both Cambodian and Chinese denials, Western official have confirmed that China is building a naval base in Cambodia, with a groundbreaking ceremony to occur this week.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533874728947134465

View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1533874728947134465?s=20&t=4_XRFaH05WcgEOdB3N3oFQ

Yeah, that's not going to go over well in Hanoi or Mumbai....