ENER Solar Eclipse Warning Issued as Texas Power Grid Faces Energy Plunge

helen

helen

Panic Sex Lady
Solar Eclipse Warning Issued as Texas Power Grid Faces Energy Plunge

www.newsweek.com

An upcoming solar eclipse is anticipated to see a significant drop in energy supply to Texas's power grid, as a lack of sunlight will see solar generation suddenly and dramatically decline.
A total solar eclipse—when the sun is completely shrouded by the moon—is set to occur on April 8, passing from northern Mexico across the southwest and into New England. A 100 percent loss of sunlight is due to take place in Texas from around 12:10 p.m. to 3:10 p.m. CT (1:10-4:10 p.m. ET).

According to Hugh Cutcher, a data scientist for solar power forecaster Solcast, most of the continental U.S. will experience a "significant drop" in solar generation, but the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) will be "heavily impacted by the effects of the eclipse."
Solcast projections suggest that, should the skies be clear that day, because the eclipse will occur in the middle of the day, ERCOT's solar production will suddenly drop from nearly 15,000 megawatts to around 1,000 megawatts, before returning to normal. It estimates that the overall loss to the grid will be 11.7 percent of its total daily solar generation.

Solar eclipse Texas
A rare "ring of fire" annular solar eclipse is seen on October 14, 2023 in Boerne, Texas. A total eclipse is due to occur over the continental U.S. on April 8, threatening solar power generation. Rick Kern/Getty Images

Cutcher said that this would amount to a loss of 16.9 gigawatt-hours—enough to power 1.69 billion LED lightbulbs—but that further solar projects coming online before April "makes it likely this number could be higher."

ERCOT's own projections, published on March 7, suggest solar output would drop from 99.2 percent just after noon on April 8 to 7.6 percent at 1:40 p.m.

While the eclipse is expected to affect power generation in other regions, Texas's power grid has a larger proportion of its supply generated by solar power, whereas for grid operators in New York or New England, solar power tends to be limited to residential buildings.

By comparison, the New York power grid solar generation is predicted to peak at just over 3,500 megawatts, before falling to less than 250 megawatts.

ERCOT says it is planning for the eclipse and "will use available tools to balance the system" when it occurs. In the days and hours leading up to the eclipse, it will be monitoring generation and weather forecasts to ensure demand is met.
A spokesperson for ERCOT told Newsweek that it "is working on forecasting models to reflect solar generation on the grid during the eclipse" and "does not expect any grid reliability concerns during the eclipse."

ERCOT has previously suffered from strains on the power grid due to extreme weather patterns. In January, it noted "tight grid conditions" due to a cold snap increasing demand. A prolonged heat wave in the summer of 2023 threatened to do the same.

When a solar eclipse occurred in August 2017, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information estimated that the U.S. lost around a quarter of its solar power generation capacity but noted that it did not cause any operational issues.

The challenge for power grip operators is not just the loss of power, but the suddenness with which it happens, which can place strain on transmission, like any large fluctuations in supply or demand.

Vahe Peroomian, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Southern California's Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, explained in a March 8 article for The Conversation:

"Because solar power production falls quickly during the eclipse's peak, grid operators may need to tap into reserves at a rate that may strain the electrical transmission lines.
"To try to keep things running smoothly, grid operators will rely on local reserves and minimize power transfer between grids during the event."
He noted that, like other renewable energy sources, solar power was variable—only being generated when the sun was shining—and so power grids normally rely on battery storage to bridge the time difference between when solar power is generated most and when it is needed most, which could also be used in the event of an eclipse.

"ERCOT will use all available tools to maintain grid reliability and will continue to monitor conditions and keep the public informed through our communications channels," the spokesperson said.

Update 3/18/2024, 9:30 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from an ERCOT spokesperson.

www.newsweek.com

Solar eclipse warning issued as Texas power grid faces energy plunge

Texas's power grid could lose 16.9 gigawatt-hours of energy on April 8 as a total eclipse is expected to cause a sharp drop in solar generation.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
helen

helen

Panic Sex Lady
U.S. Rep. Greg Casar files bill to connect Texas grid to rest of the country

www.texasstandard.org

It further specifies a range for the number of gigawatts the new connections must be capable of transferring between grids. It says, for example, “between 4.3 and 12.6 GW of new transfer capability between ERCOT and SPP.” By some estimates, 1 gigawatt is enough to power 750,000 homes on average.

Beyond improving reliability, supporters of the plan say, the connections would reduce the cost of power to consumers by limiting energy scarcity in Texas, which drives up bills. They say it would also benefit Texas power companies, which could sell more electrons out of state, and it would help clean up the U.S. power system by unlocking more of Texas’ massive renewable energy resources.

Critics will likely oppose a provision in the bill that strips Texas of its unique ability to regulate its own power grid, handing jurisdiction of the ERCOT system to the federal government.
Casar argues that move would benefit Texas consumers by giving federal regulators a say in whether state energy rates are “just and reasonable.”

“People should know that the lights are going to be kept on and people are not going to get screwed over on pricing just because we’ve decided to have this isolated grid,” he said.
Casar’s office lists several co-sponsors of the bill, including fellow Austinite Rep. Lloyd Doggett and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, both Democrats.

They say Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey will carry the bill in the Senate.

No transmission? No transition.​

The bill is the most recent in a growing number of proposals to increase transmission interconnections between grids nationwide. Experts say the development is necessary to transition the country to renewable energy to fight climate change.

Michael Webber, a mechanical engineering professor at UT Austin, was consulted by Rep. Casar’s office as it drafted the bill. He had not seen a final version when he spoke to KUT, but said interconnection would allow clean energy from renewable-rich parts of the country, like Texas, to reach energy-hungry urban centers on the coasts

Webber said there can be no clean energy transition without building out more transmission.

“You’ve gotta have the ability to move the clean electrons to market,” he said.

He, and others, also say that increased access to energy from neighboring grids in 2021 would have helped ease the pain of the blackout in the final days of the freeze.

While energy brought in from over state lines would not have been enough to restore electricity, Webber said, it could have been enough to institute “rolling outages” earlier in the crisis, allowing power and heat to return to more people’s homes for hours at a time.

“You want a grid that is bigger than the weather,” he said. “Even if it’s just a few thousand megawatts of transmission capacity, that can make a difference.”

That’s one benefit of interconnection not lost on federal regulators.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently considered mandating electricity transfer quotas between regional grids. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., the industry group that develops reliability standards, has also conducted an interregional transmission study that will be brought to Congress this year.

Other bills have also been filed to spur interconnections between power grids. Those include the Big Wires Act from Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper, which would mandate energy transfer requirements between all regional grids in the U.S. except the Texas grid.

“It skips the Texas question,” Casar said. “You can’t skip out on the energy capital of the country, frankly, the energy capital of the world. We can’t keep working our way around Texas. We need to interconnect Texas.”

But Texas politicians and industry have zealously guarded the state’s energy independence in the past, making interconnection with increased federal oversight a tricky political proposition.

Isolation by design​

Texas’ lack of significant connections with neighboring power grids is on purpose. It was first instituted as an informal agreement between Texas electric utilities as a way of avoiding federal oversight.

Simply put, by keeping their wires on the Texas side of the border, utilities kept more regulation in the hands of Texas politicians.

Since the 2021 blackouts, more and more Texans have questioned that status quo. But, the idea of inviting more federal oversight remains a hard sell.

Many in the energy industry enjoy the access and influence they have with Texas state politicians and regulators versus those in the federal government.

In the late 1970s, one North Texas utility broke ranks and attempted to connect with Oklahoma. That provocation, known in energy lore as the “Midnight Connection,” led to lawsuits and hearings that eventually codified the relative isolation of the Texas grid into law.

While some smaller direct current connections between Texas and neighboring grids exist today, Webber said they allow for only about 1% percent — at most — of peak energy use to flow over Texas state lines.

Companies that have based their business models under the current system may feel threatened by increased competition and, potentially, increased oversight. And Texas politicians say keeping regulation in-state allows for the state to approve energy projects and in ways that would not be possible if the state fell under federal jurisdiction.

Pat Wood, a former chair of both the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said the absence of federal regulation allowed Texas to easily deregulate its energy market 25 years ago and to build out a statewide transmission system to bring wind power from West Texas to the east.
“Having that all under one state border made it a lot easier to get the permitting and construction done,” Wood told KUT News. “When I was at FERC, it was more challenging.”

Wood, who now runs the energy storage company Hunt Energy, said federal rule changes in the 1990s mean Texas is now allowed to increase connections with neighboring grids without inviting more out-of-state regulation. But until recently, there has been no money in developing new connections.

“I think … it’s better to just let things kind of make their own economics and let that drive the day rather than kind of put your finger on the scale,” Wood said.

But, Casar said, more federal oversight is exactly what is needed.

“It used to be that you had politicians that would basically say, ‘We can escape the big bad feds,’” he said. “I think that that argument starts sounding so frail when you’ve had hundreds of people die in a winter storm.”
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
ANYONE seriously in favor of that bill is WILLFULLY forgetting the federal DENIAL of the request to run MANY of the ERCOT-Controlled generation facilities at 100% output during the fairly serious winter weather last or 2nd last winter.

THIS is stupid if they think they will be "allowed" to produce as needed should another cold winter or HOT summer repeat.
 
W

Wyominglarry

Veteran Member
What a joke. The entire lapse time for the beginning to the end of the eclipse is like 30 minutes. I saw the one in 2017. The exact center was in Casper, where I live. It was awesome, but lasted a very short time. No way the grid will collapse if there is very little sunlight for a few minutes.
 
Pebbles

Pebbles

Veteran Member
They are going to squeeze every drop of panic they can get out of this. People are just not able to analyze anything. So every cloudy day in Texas causes catastrophic electric drops. Oh my stars, what about that time each day when the sun goes down!!!!!
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Wyominglarry said:
What a joke. The entire lapse time for the beginning to the end of the eclipse is like 30 minutes. I saw the one in 2017. The exact center was in Casper, where I live. It was awesome, but lasted a very short time. No way the grid will collapse if there is very little sunlight for a few minutes.
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Hummm wonder if they even consider that there is darkness overnight for some 8 hours or so. Does that count?

A few years back went through Dallas around 1 AM and it was all lit up, different color lights on different building. Beautiful. Was anybody working in the skyscrapers? Was the AC still on?
 
Jez

Jez

Veteran Member
CaryC said:
Hummm wonder if they even consider that there is darkness overnight for some 8 hours or so. Does that count?

A few years back went through Dallas around 1 AM and it was all lit up, different color lights on different building. Beautiful. Was anybody working in the skyscrapers? Was the AC still on?
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Many buildings cut the AC at night so it gets rather stuffy if you work late. Office lights also get turned off by security or cleaning staff. When I worked as a security guard in an office building I shut off lights as part of my nightly rounds. I once stumbled on someone working late and in the dark and scared the hell out of both of us.
 
end game

end game

Veteran Member
Ercot gonna throw down next time it decides to cloud up and superstorm for a few hours? Maybe go loud with a black start even though most people will be going outside to see the event that will end the world?
 
end game

end game

Veteran Member
helen said:
I can cite the research if you need it. The actual problem may be the inverter programming.
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I personally watched those cheese weasel spot price thieves run the demand over limit in real time for 4 minutes. End result was a massive demand charge on my txu bill. They cry wolf all the time but always come out ahead in surplus "revenue".
 
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