ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
I doubt anything coming from US intelligence these days as it is all just used to prop up Dem politics. None the less, it wouldn't surprise me if Russia takes back the government in Kyiv that the US stole in 2014.
(Obama)
I can't see Russia spending that much in treasure to move men, supplies, planes, ships and trains to the border of Ukraine without intending to use them. I realize that training is an important budget item and necessary for combat readiness, but this is excessive and too focused. Sigh.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Putin is playing an interesting, if high stakes game.
He would be love to to reincorporate the Ukraine back into Russia. The question is in how to avoid serious blowback. The last thing he wants to do is exchange cans of sunshine.
I expect a very clever scheme from Putin.
He would be love to to reincorporate the Ukraine back into Russia. The question is in how to avoid serious blowback. The last thing he wants to do is exchange cans of sunshine.
I expect a very clever scheme from Putin.
rev_mike
Contributing Member
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Remember Russia's actual GNP is approximately the size of Holland. Russia is highly dependent on sales of natural resources for it's national income.
Other then sales of military hardware, Russia manufactures little of interest to the world's consumers.
It is difficult to see how Russia could sustain a long war.
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samus79
Veteran Member
There’s too many tweets to move over here to this thread, but here’s a Twitter account that monitors naval ship movements, looks like there’s a lot of heavy iron moving out of Norfolk and San Diego today and yesterday. 4-5 amphibious assault ships, some destroyers and lots of support ships and a few subs. No idea if this is legit but it’s very interesting to say the least....
Here’s where I originally saw this info/link which is, as far as I know, a legit OSINT account
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1483560487145164808?s=20
Edit to add:
In between reading this info and then posting it here, another destroyer was spotted leaving San Diego....crazy
Here’s where I originally saw this info/link which is, as far as I know, a legit OSINT account
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1483560487145164808?s=20
Edit to add:
In between reading this info and then posting it here, another destroyer was spotted leaving San Diego....crazy
thereisnofork
Veteran Member
Wonder if they are moving it out to do something, or just spreading out the targets, i.e. avoiding a strike on a naval base and losing a big chunk of the fleet.
coalcracker
Veteran Member
Maybe Putin wants those Russian landing craft near England for when the festivities in Ukraine kick off? Give our boy Boris Johnson something to think about!
God Save the Queen.
God Save the Queen.
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
Maybe Putin wants those Russian landing craft near England for when the festivities in Ukraine kick off? Give our boy Boris Johnson something to think about!
God Save the Queen.
Boris could be out on his arse before then, hes getting lots of flack for parties breaching covid regs at the height of the lockdowns and tried to BS his way out of it.
THe LHAs and LHDs are interesting. Thats a lot at once. Others not so much.
Putin gets it all when he sells the ones left on the secondary market.Who gets the 10%
samus79
Veteran Member
I agree, especially considering the amount of support ships leaving at the same time, if it was just quick exercises off the coast they wouldn’t be bringing that much fuel and supplies with them. As for moving them out because of a possible strike on the naval base, I don’t think so considering that San Diego and Norfolk both have several carriers and there doesn’t seem to be any info on them moving out to sea. I’m not sure how many carriers are out of port or forward deployed at this time, but I did hear about a pair of our carriers moving towards the Med and possibly the Black Sea. But I dont foresee them actually entering the Black Sea, they’d be sitting ducks there, much worse than if they were in the Med.
jward
passin' thru
The case for neutrality to defuse crisis with Russia
Faced with the certainty of the destruction of their country, most Ukrainians would settle for peace through neutrality, writes Scott Ritter
ACCORDING to Axios, Jake Sullivan, national security adviser for president Joe Biden, convened a Zoom conference of erstwhile Russian experts to sound out possible policy options going into this week’s triple round of talks with Russia on European security. ‘By soliciting advice from the hawkish pockets in the foreign policy establishment,’ Axios noted, ‘including those who served under former president Trump, the Biden administration is considering all options while weighing how to discourage Russian president Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine—and punish him if he does.’
How the solicitation of advice from ‘hawkish pockets in the foreign policy establishment’ translates into ‘considering all options’ is a matter for another time. The point here is that the Biden administration, rather than searching for a potential compromise position which could avert conflict in Europe while attaining legitimate national security goals and objectives for the United States, sought out a literal echo chamber of nonsensical advice from like-minded individuals who have spent the past two decades wallowing in their hate and disdain for Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.
Michael McFaul, the former Obama administration Russian expert who served as the US Ambassador to Russia from 2012–2014, and who has famously clashed with Putin’s Russia over time, noted the wisdom of Sullivan seeking ‘to engage with outsiders…including those who may disagree with him,’ while declining to say whether he himself participated in the call.
A hawk’s demands
WHILE McFaul has opted to remain silent on any advice he may have imparted if he had, in fact, been a part of that call, one doesn’t have to delve too far into the realm of speculation to get a feel for both the tenor and content of what such advice might have looked like. In a recent tweet responding to a statement made last year by Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov that Russia was demanding a ‘ironclad’ guarantee that ‘Ukraine and Georgia will never ever become a member of NATO,’ McFaul responded with a tweet of his own, declaring:
‘And I want a “waterproof” “ironclad” “bulletproof” guarantee Russia will end its occupation of Ukrainian and Georgian territories, will never invade Ukraine or Georgia again and will stop its efforts to undermine democracy in Ukraine & Georgia.’
McFaul’s tweet was reflective of an overall policy position which sought the reversal of what he viewed as Russian usurpation of the territory of three European states — Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia. After the Russian government published the text of a draft treaty calling for a guarantee that the United States would not seek to establish military bases ‘in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’ or ‘use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them’, McFaul proposed additional articles to the draft treaty in which:
Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Moldova and restore full sovereignty to this European country;
Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Georgia, renounce recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries and restore the full sovereignty of Georgia; and
Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Ukraine, return Crimea to Ukraine, stop supporting separatist forces in Ukraine, and restore the full sovereignty of this European country.
While there is little doubt that McFaul, who has been loath to find any common ground with Putin’s Russia, was seeking to counter what he viewed as a non-sensical Russian proposal with a non-sensical response, the fact is that if one departs for a moment from a world where the concept of genuine cooperation based upon a willingness to compromise (ie, real diplomacy) governed as a matter of course, the former US ambassador to Russia may have actually hit upon a formula that could allow the US and NATO to sustain their no-compromise stance on NATO’s ‘open door’ policy while respecting Russia’s insistence on a NATO-free presence in non-NATO former Soviet Republics.
The notion that Russia would agree to withdraw assets from Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova on its own volition is, of course, a non-starter. This is especially true if NATO was considering allowing any of these three states membership. However, if one is to accept the premise that it is the sovereign right of any nation to freely associate with whom it chooses (the cornerstone of NATO’s ‘open door’ policy), then the opposite is true as well — it is the sovereign right of any nation to choose neutrality.
A proposed deal
THIS is the missing ingredient in McFaul’s tongue-in-cheek formulation — that in exchange for a binding commitment by Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia to permanently opt out of joining any military alliance, while retaining the sovereign right to interact with the community of nations politically and economically as they best see fit, Russia would undertake measures designed to further the sovereignty of those states, to include the following:
The withdrawal of all troops from the territory of the Republic of Georgia, inclusive of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a rescindment of Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, and Russian diplomatic assistance in facilitating both South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Georgian sovereign control;
The withdrawal of all troops from Transnistria (Moldova), and the rescindment of any recognition of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, and Russian diplomatic assistance in facilitating the return of Transnistria to Moldovan sovereign control; and
Full Russian support for the cessation of hostilities in Donbas and Lugansk, and an agreement on the recognition of Ukrainian interest in Crimea that does not infringe on Russian security or sovereignty.
McFaul and his ilk would never agree to such a trade-off, for the obvious reasons. But the people of Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine might. First and foremost, so long as there are outstanding disputes involving the territorial integrity of a nation, NATO rules preclude any notion of full membership, if for no other reason that NATO does not want Article 5 to be invoked on day one of a nation joining NATO.
As such, until which time Russia changes its posture on Transnistria, Georgia, and Ukraine, NATO membership is an impossibility. In short, those Moldavans, Georgians, and Ukrainians who believe that the future well-being of their respective nation hinges on NATO membership are cutting their own throats.
For Georgians especially, the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced refugees from Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a rowing domestic political problem. If given a choice between being able to return to their homes and live in peace as a neutral nation, or to die far away from home because your government pursued the false hope of salvation through NATO membership, I’m certain most Georgians would choose home and neutrality.
A resolution in Ukraine
FOR Ukraine, the choice is even starker — their government’s pursuit of NATO membership will almost certainly result in the destruction of their nation. NATO has already said it will not intervene to prevent this destruction, and Russia is almost certain to make an example out of Ukraine to intimidate the rest of Europe. Faced with the certainty of the destruction of their country, most Ukrainians would settle for peace and some sort of face-saving measure on Crimea.
The idea of a neutral Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine does not in any way compel NATO to rescind its ‘open door’ policy toward membership — the thing about an ‘open door’ is that nations are free not to walk through it. By offering real solutions to real problems, Russia and the US/NATO could resolve the current impasse regarding European security.
And the establishment of a neutral bloc could lead to further de-escalation, including the reduction of military forces along the NATO-Russian frontier, the end of provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and NATO-Russia periphery, and a ban on weapons systems, such as missile defence and intermediate-range missiles, deemed to be destabilising.
Unfortunately, this kind of compromise is virtually impossible to consider today. I would bet a dime to a dollar that not a single one of the Russian experts approached by Jake Sullivan for guidance regarding the recently completed round of negotiations with Russia would endorse such a policy line, if for no other reason that it would end the raison d’etre for NATO’s continued existence in the post-Cold War era, and it would solidify Russian president Putin as a rational actor, something the anti-Putin crowd — McFaul included — could never tolerate, as it would diminish their own niche relevance.
The US and NATO are hell-bent on containing and rolling back Russian influence and power, at the cost of the very security they claim to be promoting and defending. The nations that will bear the brunt of the cost of this hubris-laced adventurism — Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine — are but an afterthought to NATO, little more than useful pawns in a greater game of geopolitical dominance.
If offered the choice between peace and war, if the cost was neutrality, I am certain where most Moldovans, Georgians, and Ukrainians would vote. This is, of course, why the US and NATO will never give them such an option.
Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.
The case for neutrality to defuse crisis with Russia
ACCORDING to Axios, Jake Sullivan, national security adviser for president Joe Biden, convened a Zoom conference of erstwhile Russian experts to sound out possible policy options going into this week’s triple round of...
www.newagebd.net
northern watch
TB Fanatic
I thought the same thing, maybe the Russian landing craft are carrying cruise missiles to take out British military bases.Maybe Putin wants those Russian landing craft near England for when the festivities in Ukraine kick off? Give our boy Boris Johnson something to think about!
God Save the Queen.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
It never occurred to me until just now--with the posts above about the US & western govts not admitting a problem (at least not until---finally--Jen Saki did today) (misspelled on purpose) --and the posts about how MSM and the other "opiates of the public" (CNN, MSNBC, etc., + most social media) have anesthetized the public against having the SLIGHTEST grip on REALITY---
THIS is how it comes true, what we were told--
"AS A SNARE it shall come upon the whole world..........."
How fast does a snare trip?
(11 secs)
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
12m
New: Sec Blinken & Russian FM Lavrov will meet in Geneva on Friday following Blinken’s mtgs in Kyiv & Berlin, a sr State Dept official says. So far no diplomatic breakthroughs but the fact that Blinken & Lavrov meet suggests "perhaps diplomacy is not dead,” official said.
U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS BLINKEN, IN LAVROV MEETING, WILL URGE RUSSIA TO TAKE IMMEDIATE STEPS TO DE-ESCALATE UKRAINE SITUATION U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS WE'VE SEEN OPPOSITE OF DE-ESCALATION FROM RUSSIA, INCLUDING DURING AND AFTER THIS MONTH'S DIPLOMATIC TALKS
Please please pretty pretty please don't do this and make Biden look bad please please pretty please.....
then when that doesn't work, changing to tantrum tactics:
If you don't give me what I want I'm going to hold my breath until I turn blue! YOU'LL be SORRY!!!!
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.
The Russian Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, in April.Credit...Andrei Ratmirov/TASS via Getty Images
By Michael Schwirtz and David E. Sanger
Jan. 17, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine — The week before intensive diplomatic meetings began over the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, American and Ukrainian officials watched from afar as Russia began emptying out its embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.
On Jan. 5, 18 people — mostly the children and wives of Russian diplomats — boarded buses and embarked on a 15-hour drive home to Moscow, according to a senior Ukrainian security official.
About 30 more followed in the next few days, from Kyiv and a consulate in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Diplomats at two other Russian consulates have been told to prepare to leave Ukraine, the security official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.
How to interpret the evacuation has become part of the mystery of divining the next play by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Thinning out the Russian Embassy may be part propaganda, part preparation for a looming conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.
In recent days, the slow departures — which the Russians most likely knew that the Americans and the Ukrainians would see — have become part of the puzzle of what happens next. They are a more ominous data point, in addition to cyberattacks on Ukrainian ministries last week, and reports from Microsoft and the U.S. government that far more destructive malware has been planted in Ukrainian networks but not activated.
Enormous train convoys loaded with tanks, missiles and troops continue to push west through Russia, apparently heading for the Ukrainian border. Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, announced on Monday that Russian forces and equipment had begun arriving in his country for a joint military exercise that would be held in two places: on Belarus’s western edge, near Poland and Lithuania, two NATO countries; and along the Ukrainian border, which could prove another pathway for invasion.
The exercise has been given a very American-sounding name: Allied Resolve. But in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials fully expect any Russian troops deployed to Belarus for the exercises to remain in place indefinitely, leaving Ukraine open to attack from the north, the east and the south
“We’ll be fully surrounded by equal forces,” the senior Ukrainian security official said.
In Washington, U.S. officials say they still assess that Mr. Putin has not yet made a decision to invade. They describe him as more a tactician than a grand strategist, and they believe that he is constantly weighing a host of different factors. Among them is how well he could weather the threatened sanctions on his banks and industry, and whether his demands that Ukraine stop veering toward NATO — and that NATO stop spreading toward Russia — are receiving enough attention.
But the U.S. officials say Mr. Putin may also have concluded that with the United States and other countries arming Ukraine, his military advantage is at risk of slipping away. Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, announced in an address to Parliament on Monday that the country would begin providing Ukraine with light, anti-armor defensive weapons. Mr. Putin may become tempted to act sooner rather than later.
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U.S. officials saw Russia’s embassy evacuations coming. “We have information that indicates the Russian government was preparing to evacuate their family members from the Russian Embassy in Ukraine in late December and early January,” a U.S. official said in a statement.
Ukrainian officials say they saw the Russians leave.
But that leaves open the question of what, if anything, the Russians were signaling.
It is possible they were trying to bolster the case that the United States and its Western allies should take seriously their demands that Ukraine can never join NATO, and that troops, nuclear weapons and other heavy weaponry must be removed from former Warsaw Pact states, like Poland, that were once allied with the Soviet Union.
It could also be that the Russians were trying to indicate that an attack was brewing, though there were no other signals. In fact, the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is not increasing at a rate that Pentagon officials expected a month ago.
The latest U.S. estimates are that about 60 battalion tactical groups, known as B.T.G.s and each with an average of 800 soldiers, are now in place at the border with Ukraine. Combined with other local forces, the Russians have about 77,000 troops at the border, with more on the way. Others put the figure at closer to 100,000 — much depends on how different forces are counted — but that is well short of the Pentagon’s estimate more than a month ago that the total number could rise to 175,000.
U.S. and European intelligence and military officials say Mr. Putin may be waiting for the ground to freeze, making it easier to get heavy equipment over the border. Or he may be building up slowly, for diplomatic advantage, as he awaits a written reply from the Biden administration and NATO to his demands that they roll back NATO’s military posture to what it was 15 years ago — much farther from Russia’s borders.
While U.S. officials still believe Mr. Putin is undecided about his next move, officials in Kyiv are assessing what an attack may look like, if it happens. It could come in the form of a full-on invasion, the Ukrainian security official said. Or Russia could launch a cyberattack on the Ukrainian energy grid — far larger than the ones conducted in 2015 and 2016 — combined with military escalation in Ukraine’s east, where Russian-backed separatist forces remain deeply entrenched.
No one but the leaders in the Kremlin seem to know for sure how the next days and weeks might play out.
Against this backdrop, a senior delegation of U.S. senators arrived in Kyiv on Monday. Their trip followed a visit to Kyiv last Wednesday by the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, who consulted with intelligence officials and met with Mr. Zelensky to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions with Moscow, a U.S. official said. Mr. Burns’s trip was reported earlier by CNN.
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
Card 1 of 5
A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.
A spike in hostilities. Russia has recently been building up forces near its border with Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone to attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.
Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.
The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscow’s military buildup was a response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance
Rising tension. Western countries have tried to maintain a dialogue with Moscow. But administration officials recently warned that the U.S. could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should Russia invade.
The senators’ visit was a bipartisan show of support from Ukraine’s most powerful ally, even if they brought few specific proposals for staving off a Russian attack.
“Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and the actions that they are planning today, represent the most serious assault on the post-World War II order in our lifetime,” Senator Christopher S. Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, said at a news conference in Kyiv.
Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and instigated a violent separatist uprising that effectively cleaved away two Ukrainian provinces. More than 13,000 people were killed in the fighting.
At the news conference, Mr. Murphy said he hoped legislation that outlines punishing sanctions against Russia’s leadership, including Mr. Putin, would reach President Biden’s desk before any Russian action and possibly help deter it. In a meeting with the senators late Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urged them to impose sanctions quickly “to counter the aggression” from Russia.
The senators’ pledges to defend democracy and vanquish tyranny seemed a throwback to the Cold War. Indeed, observers have argued that Mr. Putin’s threats against Ukraine are rooted in a desire to reconstitute a Moscow-led Eastern bloc reminiscent of Soviet times.
Similarly, Mr. Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader who is close to Mr. Putin, made his own argument that the Russians were responding to the Americans.
“What are the Americans doing here?” Mr. Lukashenko said. “There are these hotheads who are calling for war.”
It is possibly in that spirit that Russian troops will begin military exercises in Belarus next month. Security officials fear that the exercises could become a pretext for long-term deployment of Russian forces in the former Soviet republic, which shares a lengthy western border with the European Union and NATO.
Mr. Lukashenko has pledged to follow Mr. Putin’s lead on any action in Ukraine.
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting.
Russia, Ukraine and the West
Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.www.nytimes.com
Jay Sekulow on his radio show today repeatedly kept saying "Russia has emptied its Embassy..."
Vegas321
Live free and survive
Don't forget China, in this game. They may time an invasion of Taiwan, the same time as Russia moves.
And China, IMO. Will have no issue using Nukes on US and Japanese targets.
Sweetwood
Senior Member
That’s what I’m afraid of. Surprises.
Vegas321
Live free and survive
Ok. LOTS of Assault ships leaving port, today. With tons of other landing ships, subs, destroyers and support ships.
The big ones as follows,
USS Iwo Jima (LHD7), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Bataan (LHD5), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Kearsarge (LHD3), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Tripoli (LHA7), Leaving San Diego.
All left port today.
Currently on patrol.
USS America (LHA6), Near the South China sea.
USS Essex (LHD2), Near the South China sea.
USS Abraham Lincoln. Near or at Guam.
USS Carl Vinson. Near the South China sea.
USS Harry S. Truman. In the Mediterranean.
Wonder if several Carriers will follow in the coming days...
The big ones as follows,
USS Iwo Jima (LHD7), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Bataan (LHD5), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Kearsarge (LHD3), Leaving Norfolk.
USS Tripoli (LHA7), Leaving San Diego.
All left port today.
Currently on patrol.
USS America (LHA6), Near the South China sea.
USS Essex (LHD2), Near the South China sea.
USS Abraham Lincoln. Near or at Guam.
USS Carl Vinson. Near the South China sea.
USS Harry S. Truman. In the Mediterranean.
Wonder if several Carriers will follow in the coming days...
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danielboon
TB Fanatic
Positioning more pieces getting closer every day
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Xi the Merciless has his Olympic slave games starting on February 3rd to 20th; after that who knows?
I'm increasingly convinced Putin will move before then. Xi won't allow any foreign spectators so not sure who will be watching. NBC will be streaming only.
I'm increasingly convinced Putin will move before then. Xi won't allow any foreign spectators so not sure who will be watching. NBC will be streaming only.
parsonswife
Veteran Member
I'm just praying that the athletes don't become hostages
Vegas321
Live free and survive
The Olympics will have no foreign spectators. 1/3 of the participants will not show. I see no reason the Chicoms will not use the Olympics for a cover on the invasion of Taiwan.
jward
passin' thru
well, it wouldn't be a war w/o em eh.
jward
passin' thru
Erdogan Warns Russia Against Invading Ukraine
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Gent Shkullalu / AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday warned Russia against invading Ukraine, calling the former Soviet republic a "powerful" country with international friends.
Turkey's supply of combat drones to Ukraine has drawn the wrath of Russia, which fears they could be used by Kyiv in its years-long conflict in two regions of the Moscow-backed separatist east.
Speaking to Turkish reporters in Albania, Erdogan said he intended to discuss the rising tensions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"You cannot handle these things by saying 'I will invade something, I will take it'," Turkish media quoted Erdogan as saying.
"I don't see Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a realistic option because it is not an ordinary country. Ukraine is a powerful country," said Erdogan, who backs Ukraine's NATO aspirations.
In December, Putin criticized Ukraine for deploying Turkish attack drones, urging Ankara to put pressure on Kyiv not to use the military hardware, which has played a key role in conflicts in Libya and over Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey has countered by saying it cannot be held responsible for how the drones are used by countries after they are sold.
Erdogan said he has always opposed Russia's approach to Ukraine, criticizing its 2014 annexation of Crimea.
He added that Russia "should review the state of affairs in the world and its own state of affairs before deciding to take this step" to invade.
"We need to rip war out of political history," Erdogan said.
The West accuses Russia of deploying tanks, artillery, and about 100,000 soldiers across Ukraine's northern and eastern borders in preparation for a possible invasion.
Moscow says it is responding to what it sees as the growing presence of NATO in its sphere of influence, where it fiercely opposes the expansion of the Atlantic alliance.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday warned Russia against invading Ukraine, calling the former Soviet republic a "powerful" country with international friends.
Turkey's supply of combat drones to Ukraine has drawn the wrath of Russia, which fears they could be used by Kyiv in its years-long conflict in two regions of the Moscow-backed separatist east.
Speaking to Turkish reporters in Albania, Erdogan said he intended to discuss the rising tensions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"You cannot handle these things by saying 'I will invade something, I will take it'," Turkish media quoted Erdogan as saying.
"I don't see Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a realistic option because it is not an ordinary country. Ukraine is a powerful country," said Erdogan, who backs Ukraine's NATO aspirations.
In December, Putin criticized Ukraine for deploying Turkish attack drones, urging Ankara to put pressure on Kyiv not to use the military hardware, which has played a key role in conflicts in Libya and over Azerbaijan's separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey has countered by saying it cannot be held responsible for how the drones are used by countries after they are sold.
Erdogan said he has always opposed Russia's approach to Ukraine, criticizing its 2014 annexation of Crimea.
He added that Russia "should review the state of affairs in the world and its own state of affairs before deciding to take this step" to invade.
"We need to rip war out of political history," Erdogan said.
The West accuses Russia of deploying tanks, artillery, and about 100,000 soldiers across Ukraine's northern and eastern borders in preparation for a possible invasion.
Moscow says it is responding to what it sees as the growing presence of NATO in its sphere of influence, where it fiercely opposes the expansion of the Atlantic alliance.
Erdogan Warns Russia Against Invading Ukraine - The Moscow Times
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday warned Russia against invading Ukraine, calling the former Soviet republic a "powerful" country with international friends.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Ukraine facing 'nightmare scenario' of 'full-scale' Russian invasion
Britain's Ministry of Defence chiefs are worried about a much larger Russian incursion into Ukraine, raising fears of warfare engulfing cities and high civilian death tolls
Vladimir Putin 'is now plotting a full-scale invasion': British defence chiefs and White House warn Ukraine is facing a 'nightmare scenario' as Russian troops mass along border and armoured divisions head to Belarus
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed 100,000 troops and military hardware along Ukraine border
- Britain's Ministry of Defence fears large-scale warfare engulfing cities and causing high civilian death tolls
- It comes after the White House warned on Tuesday that the situation in the region was 'extremely dangerous'
- Military experts in the Joe Biden administration fear that Moscow could launch an attack 'at any point'
Published: 17:20 EST, 18 January 2022 | Updated: 21:36 EST, 18 January 2022
Vladimir Putin will opt for the 'nightmare scenario' of a full invasion of Ukraine as tensions rise towards tipping point, UK defence chiefs fear.
The region has been on a knife-edge since the end of last year when Moscow moved as many as 100,000 troops, as well as tanks and missiles, close to the border.
The White House warned yesterday the situation was 'extremely dangerous' and that Moscow could launch an attack 'at any point'.
It had been thought Mr Putin would choose the 'simple option' of sending troops into the Donbass region in south-eastern Ukraine and then negotiate for it to become an independent state, providing a buffer between pro-western Ukraine and Russia.
As the region is already occupied by pro-Russian separatists, and has been in a state of war since 2014, it was believed it would offer little resistance.
But the latest intelligence now has Ministry of Defence chiefs worried about a much larger incursion, raising fears of warfare engulfing cities and high civilian death tolls.
They believe Mr Putin's troops are being positioned in line with his new objective, with armoured divisions set to head into neighbouring Belarus on exercise but now stationed within striking distance of Kiev.
Last night a senior defence source said: 'We strongly believe [Putin's] preference is for a full invasion rather than a limited offensive. In a sense he might as well go for as much of Ukraine as he can get hold of because the penalties are just the same.
'Also, if he just occupies the eastern regions he will never be able to take back the whole of Ukraine because of the inevitable strengthening of Ukrainian forces in the remainder of the country in the aftermath.
'It is the nightmare scenario.'
Mr Putin is aware that as Ukraine does not belong to Nato, there will be no military response by Western states.
Similarly, the economic sanctions threatened by the US and the UK apply regardless of the scale of such action.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday before holding talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Geneva on Friday in the latest attempt to defuse the crisis.
'Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation,' said White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.
'We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine, and what Secretary Blinken is going to go do is highlight very clearly there is a diplomatic path forward.
'It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make, whether they are going to suffer severe economic consequences or not.'
Officials said last week that Russia had deployed agents trained in sabotage and urban warfare to launch a 'false-flag' attack on proxy forces, providing the pretext for invasion.
At the same time, it has stepped up social media campaigns portraying Ukraine as aggressors.
Russia has repeatedly denied that it is planning an invasion and instead demanded that NATO bar Ukraine from membership.
Last night, Kiev hailed Britain for sending anti-tank weapons and troops as an 'important first step' to help the country defend itself.
On Monday, two C-17 transporters left the UK with 2,000 armour-piercing missile systems and soldiers to teach Ukraine's forces how to use them.
But the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, called on extra help from Western powers.
'We are asking for more, and we are expecting to have more,' Mr Prystaiko told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
'I am not ashamed to ask to help us with everything that is possible to avoid this war.
'Russia is stopped when it is stopped, not when Putin decided that he achieved enough.'
The diplomat hit out at Germany for failing to match Britain's offer of military aid, with Berlin preferring to focus on the threat of sanctions.
'How can we be given a chance to defend ourselves if you're not giving weapons? With what? Rocks?' he said.
Mr Prystaiko also slammed Berlin for pushing ahead with the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that will circumvent Ukraine.
Critics fear it will increase Germany's reliance on Russian energy supplies.
In comments that will alarm Kiev, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said her country needs 'a reliable Russia' to supply Europe with gas.
However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he may consider halting the pipeline if Moscow attacks.
With pressure to take a more hawkish stance, he met Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin to discuss the next steps.
Mr Scholz told reporters it was 'clear that there will be a high price to pay and that everything will have to be discussed should there be a military intervention in Ukraine'.
The German government even went so far as to brief journalists on Tuesday that cutting Russia off from international banking systems - the so-called 'nuclear option' of sanctions - was off the table, prompting angry denials from Washington.
Tensions escalated at the end of last week after American officials claimed to have information that Moscow had deployed resources for a 'false flag' attack.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki warned of human rights violations and war crimes if diplomacy failed and the Russian government went ahead with its plans.
'We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine,' she said.
'The operatives are trained in urban warfare and using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces.'
She said it mimicked the playbook used when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, and included social media disinformation to show Kiev as the instigator of violence. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the intelligence was 'very credible.'
The Kremlin quickly denied it was preparing a provocation. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the reporting was based on 'unfounded' information, according to the TASS news agency.
Even so, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said it was accelerating its plan to form reserve battalions, a move that would help it rapidly deploy 130,000 recruits to bolster its 246,000-strong armed forces.
Meanwhile, in a show of support for former Soviet republics, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace yesterday visited Latvia. He told officials the UK stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the Baltic state – a Nato ally.
He said the countries were 'united in their resolve' against Russian aggression.
Attack from multiple fronts, an escalation in Donbass or missile strikes: What a Russian invasion of Ukraine could look like - as military analysts fear it could be imminent
Western military analysts have suggested Russia cannot keep such troops deployed where they are indefinitely for financial and logistical reasons and would need to pull them back by summer.
Estimates of the numbers of new Russian troops moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000 to around 100,000, with a U.S. intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up to 175,000.
U.S. officials have said Russia might attack Ukraine as early as this month when the ground will be harder, making it easier for tanks and other armour to move swiftly.
At talks this week with the United States and NATO, Russia has sought security guarantees to defuse the crisis.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday Moscow was not ready to wait forever for a response and that it wanted a detailed written response to every Russian proposal.
But what might a Russian attack look like and what could it seek to achieve?
'The current deployments are versatile. They keep Russia's options open and therefore keep the defender guessing,' said Keir Giles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.
Here are some possible scenarios.
DONBASS ESCALATION
Heavily armed Russian-backed separatists have controlled a swath of eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue to exchange fire with Ukrainian government forces despite a 2015 ceasefire that ended major hostilities.
The conflict in Donbass has killed 15,000 people, Kyiv says. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.
Russia has accused Kyiv of harbouring plans to retake the region by force, something Ukraine denies.
In such a febrile atmosphere, the risk of a misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is greater, and Russia could use such an incident as a casus belli.
A source familiar with the Russian Defence Ministry's thinking said this was the most likely scenario if Moscow decided to attack, but that he was unaware of any such decision. Kyiv might also be provoked into attacking by the separatists who could then ask Russia to send troops to help, he said.
Russian forces could expand the fighting in Donbass to draw Ukraine into a conventional conflict, said Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at the RUSI think-tank in London. He said Moscow could try to seize Ukrainian coastal areas on the Sea of Azov, creating a land bridge from the Russian city of Rostov through Donbass to Crimea, adding: 'That would put the Ukrainian government under a lot of pressure.'
ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA
Russia has brought in new forces to Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
Moscow could launch an attack on Ukraine from Crimea and seize territory up to the Dnieper River that could serve as a natural barrier against any Ukrainian counter-offensive, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan consultancy.
The operation could begin with artillery, missile and air strikes on Ukrainian units in the south, and special forces units might seize bridges and railway junctions, allowing troops and tanks to advance, he said. There are only two roads from Crimea that could be blocked or destroyed, a potential weakness, he said.
Forces would secure control of a canal that provided Crimea with fresh water supplies until Russia annexed the region and Ukraine stopped the flow, he said.
MULTI-FRONT ATTACK
A publicly available U.S. intelligence document said Russia could stage an invasion this month with up to 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) or some 175,000 troops. It said about 50 BTGs were already in place to the north and east of Ukraine and in Crimea to the south.
Seizing southern Ukraine could cut Kyiv off from the coast and NATO's presence in the Black Sea, Melvin said, and could play well with Russian nationalists who see the area as the historic 'Novorossiya' lands or 'New Russia'.
A multi-front assault might also involve a move into northeastern Ukraine, encircling but perhaps not entering cities where forces could get bogged down in urban fighting. Russian troops could also move into Belarus, opening a northern front for Ukraine that would put Russian forces closer to Kyiv, Giles said.
'This of course would be the most costly economically, politically and in terms of human lives and that's probably why it's least likely,' Melvin said of an all-out invasion.
Military analysts said even if it overwhelmed Ukraine's army, which is half the size of its own, Russia could face guerrilla-type resistance, making it hard to hold on to captured territory.
MISSILE STRIKES OR CYBER-ATTACK
Giles said some scenarios could involve long-range missile attacks or cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Missile attacks would take advantage of Ukraine's weaker anti-missile defences.
'The different scenarios for how exactly Russia might seek to persuade the West to meet its (security) demands by punishing Kyiv don't even necessarily include a land incursion,' he said.
A string of government websites was hacked on Friday. Some showed messages saying: 'Be afraid and expect the worst.'
The finger of suspicion immediately fell on Russia, although Ukrainian officials said critical infrastructure had not been targeted.
UK sends weapons and 'training personnel' to Ukraine but Berlin BANS the planes from German airspace and repeats vow to 'do everything to avoid escalating the crisis'
Britain has sent troops and hi-tech weapons to Ukraine in a bid to thwart a feared Russian invasion.
In a clear signal to Vladimir Putin, two RAF transporters flew badly needed missile systems to Kiev's forces. Troops were aboard the planes and will remain in Ukraine to teach their counterparts how to combat Russian tanks.
U.K. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the deployment came 'in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia'.
But in a possible sign of divisions in Europe, the flights took roundabout routes to Ukraine, avoiding German airspace, amid signs that Berlin was trying to protect its relations with Moscow.
Number 10 said it was 'not accurate to say Germany denied access to its airspace' but would not be drawn on why the British aircraft chose a flight path around the country.
The German government even went so far as to brief journalists on Tuesday that cutting Russia off from international banking systems - the so-called 'nuclear option' of sanctions - was off the table, prompting angry denials from Washington.
US in crisis talks as Moscow is told: There'll be consequences
By Sam Greenhill Chief Reporter for the Daily Mail
America last night warned the Kremlin of 'massive consequences' as its top diplomat flew to Europe for last-ditch talks aimed at averting war.
In a hastily arranged trip, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was set to arrive in Kiev last night to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He then moves on to Berlin and will also hold talks with France and the UK.
Looking to impress on Moscow the need for de-escalation, he and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov decided yesterday 'it would be useful' to meet in person on Friday in Geneva.
In a call to Mr Lavrov, Mr Blinken 'stressed the importance of continuing a diplomatic path to de-escalate tensions'. A senior State Department official said: 'This is neither an exercise nor normal troop movement. It is a show of force and plans for a possible invasion.
'This is extremely dangerous. We are now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack on Ukraine.'
The official warned the Kremlin: 'Our message, and that of our allies and partners, is that Russia has two choices: diplomacy and de-escalation, or escalation and massive consequences.
'Should Russia invade, we will provide additional defensive equipment to Ukrainians.'
jward
passin' thru
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
#UPDATE: With respect to NLAW anti-tank guided missile deliveries to Ukraine: BBC News reports Downing Streets says about 100 troops from Britain are heading to Ukraine to train soldiers
Source: BBC News (1:10 in the video)
View: https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1483628837304950785?s=20
@ELINTNews
#UPDATE: With respect to NLAW anti-tank guided missile deliveries to Ukraine: BBC News reports Downing Streets says about 100 troops from Britain are heading to Ukraine to train soldiers
Source: BBC News (1:10 in the video)
View: https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1483628837304950785?s=20
jward
passin' thru
The Lead CNN
@TheLeadCNN
Source: U.S. considering sending military equipment to help Ukrainians defend themselves from possible Russian invasion @NatashaBertrand reports
View: https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1483591105144889347?s=20
@TheLeadCNN
Source: U.S. considering sending military equipment to help Ukrainians defend themselves from possible Russian invasion @NatashaBertrand reports
View: https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1483591105144889347?s=20
jward
passin' thru
hmm.
Hans Mahncke
@HansMahncke
ICYMI, Ukraine has charged Petro Poroshenko with treason. Recall Poroshenko was Biden's partner in crime, ie firing the prosecutor who was investigating Hunter's boss. Right before the prosecutor was fired, Hunter was told that the investigations needed to be closed. What a mess.
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1483652490524561412?s=20
joshua
@yiddishekopf
1h
Replying to
@HansMahncke
“They say that the final decision on Petro Poroshenko will be made after President Zelensky meets with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Soon we will find out the degree of controllability of Zelensky and the plans of the States for Poroshenko.”
lyn- Let's Go Brandon | Will Not Comply
@ly61357484
1h
Replying to
@HansMahncke
Law of War Manual from the Dept of Defense. Full of great info! Section 8.16.2.4 has the limitations on the death penalty. fyi. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Docu
Hans Mahncke
@HansMahncke
ICYMI, Ukraine has charged Petro Poroshenko with treason. Recall Poroshenko was Biden's partner in crime, ie firing the prosecutor who was investigating Hunter's boss. Right before the prosecutor was fired, Hunter was told that the investigations needed to be closed. What a mess.
https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1483652490524561412?s=20
joshua
@yiddishekopf
1h
Replying to
@HansMahncke
“They say that the final decision on Petro Poroshenko will be made after President Zelensky meets with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Soon we will find out the degree of controllability of Zelensky and the plans of the States for Poroshenko.”
lyn- Let's Go Brandon | Will Not Comply
@ly61357484
1h
Replying to
@HansMahncke
Law of War Manual from the Dept of Defense. Full of great info! Section 8.16.2.4 has the limitations on the death penalty. fyi. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Docu
Vegas321
Live free and survive
Russia has a Civil defense in their major cities... We are a sad state of a country.
UK Sends A.T. Weapons to Ukraine as Russia Masses Forces
Jan 18, 2022
RT 4:48
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqcS4RDADpM&ab_channel=EdNash%27sMilitaryMatters
Jan 18, 2022
RT 4:48
Good report!
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
Does anybody really care about the Winter Olympics.
I just can't see anybody let alone Putin saying 'oh no's I can't invade till they're over'
And the Russians are banned from the Olympics still so can't officially take part.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
All of that is nothing. Methinks the 3 Russian landing ships are on their way to cuba or venezuela carrying MOBILE NUKE LAUNCHERS WITH LIVE MISSILES. Check and checkmate.