OldAndCrazy
Pureblood Forever
Well, that's odd.
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
Well, that's odd.
EMICT
Veteran Member
It is ‘if’ it actually happened.
Good faith action? Justification for retaliation if Russia moves against Ukraine? Obviously this was planned in advance with congress. We threw him a bone not to attack -- that's all that I can think.
Tweet no longer exists. What did it say?
vector7
Dot Collector
It’s wild that they impeached Donald Trump for a phone call with Ukraine, then Biden comes in and gives Ukraine to Russia.
View: https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1468252343430959108?t=9_m_4d0hWkIaTGR6b44grA&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1468252343430959108?t=9_m_4d0hWkIaTGR6b44grA&s=19
Grumphau
Veteran Member
So after 80 years we are doing appeasement again? Nobody better touch Poland this time.It’s wild that they impeached Donald Trump for a phone call with Ukraine, then Biden comes in and gives Ukraine to Russia.
View: https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1468252343430959108?t=9_m_4d0hWkIaTGR6b44grA&s=19
jward
passin' thru
Natasha Bertrand
@NatashaBertrand
Biden made no commitments or concessions to Putin about NATO, Sullivan says
2:12 PM · Dec 7, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Ф. Ф. Преображенский
@i_silin
·
Replying to
@NatashaBertrand
What is this if not a concession to Putin?!
Tadeusz Giczan
@TadeuszGiczan
2h
The U.S. Congress removed sanctions against Nord Stream 2, Russian sovereign debt, and 35 Russian individuals from the draft defense budget. The announcement came right after the Biden-Putin call.
naegling62
Veteran Member
jward
passin' thru
Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM
Ukraine's military intelligence unit today reported that Russia is moving "additional 122mm self-propelled artillery, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles" to the frontline in the Donbas, in addition to its military buildup around the country.
mil.gov.ua
Головне управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України інформує
2:50 PM · Dec 7, 2021·TweetDeck
View: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1468322082526097409?s=20
OldAndCrazy
Pureblood Forever
Something about the US Congress removing sanctions and other pressures from Vlad and his gas.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
phloydius
Veteran Member
I posted this in the another thread about Russia/Ukraine, but though I might cross post it here...
--------------
Had an interesting game of "What If" with some interesting folk. Based on a few key opinions: (1) It is not in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO, and because of that it is also in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to be unstable (politically); (2) It is not in Russia's interest to have MAD with the US; (3) Economically (Hayeakian), Russia has a strong advantage over the US currently and full on war might reverse that; (4) A world war composed of only 2 sides would probably disrupt theBRICS ascent towards a world reserve currency.
Afterwards, I came up with an alternative scenario (the first few happened before I wrote this):
Russia, US, & NATO trade threats while Russia continues to fortify it's territory and Crimea. Russia sets up make-shift diplomatic offices in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and give out Russian passports (and citizenship) to those they deem meet the qualifications. Russia allows the free (civilian) travel of those with Russian passports into and out of Donetsk & Luhansk from Russia. In a faster series of events, Donetsk & Luhansk declare independence. They sign a treaty with Russia, where: 1) Russia would recognize Donetsk & Luhansk a free republics, 2) Russia would sell humanitarian supplies, DEFENSIVE arms, and technology to Donetsk & Luhansk, 3) Donetsk & Luhansk would agree to use a currency that Russia would dictate, 4) Russia would allow the DPR & LRP to send troops into Russia for advanced training. Other countries like Belarus would then recognize Donetsk & Luhansk as republics.
Much gnashing of teeth from Europe, NATO, & the US. Russia starts building permanent military bases in Russia near the borders. Donetsk & Luhansk start building wall-like structures for the border with Ukraine. Building of embassies are announced. Allied countries continue to beet the drum that Russia is going to invade, but they do not. NATO moves military units into Ukraine, and Russia counters with a series of strong economic escalations: Reducing (but not cutting off) the sale of gas to Europe, but dramatically increase the price to net benefit Russia; continue to reduce exposure to the USD and the EURO, while announcing agreements to buy/sell goods in currencies that are friendly to Russia.
Eventually Ukraine will start attacking Donetsk & Luhansk either with full force, or with small attacks. As these escalate, and Russia does NOT respond by invading (but does offer more and more military support to Donetsk & Luhansk), other countries around the world, including China, South Africa, Brazil, and India recognize Donetsk & Luhansk as independent countries. (This could take years and while waiting...)
Russia's economic actions (and likely some "third party" hacking" of US infrastructure) push the economy in the US from deflation (in early 2022) into a reverse of very high inflation (over the next 3 years). At this time, the Federal Reserve starts decoupling the rise of interest rates from the price of interest on the treasury bonds by buying large number of them to keep the yield low, while increasing the interest rate to "fight inflation", effectively monetizing all the US debt as it comes up for renewal. Every country in the world stops rebuying the t-bonds because of the low rate, effectively leaving the Federal Reserve as the only buyer. This causes the USD that are all held internationally to start coming back to the US domestic economy, causing very high inflation.
--------------
Had an interesting game of "What If" with some interesting folk. Based on a few key opinions: (1) It is not in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO, and because of that it is also in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to be unstable (politically); (2) It is not in Russia's interest to have MAD with the US; (3) Economically (Hayeakian), Russia has a strong advantage over the US currently and full on war might reverse that; (4) A world war composed of only 2 sides would probably disrupt the
Afterwards, I came up with an alternative scenario (the first few happened before I wrote this):
Russia, US, & NATO trade threats while Russia continues to fortify it's territory and Crimea. Russia sets up make-shift diplomatic offices in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and give out Russian passports (and citizenship) to those they deem meet the qualifications. Russia allows the free (civilian) travel of those with Russian passports into and out of Donetsk & Luhansk from Russia. In a faster series of events, Donetsk & Luhansk declare independence. They sign a treaty with Russia, where: 1) Russia would recognize Donetsk & Luhansk a free republics, 2) Russia would sell humanitarian supplies, DEFENSIVE arms, and technology to Donetsk & Luhansk, 3) Donetsk & Luhansk would agree to use a currency that Russia would dictate, 4) Russia would allow the DPR & LRP to send troops into Russia for advanced training. Other countries like Belarus would then recognize Donetsk & Luhansk as republics.
Much gnashing of teeth from Europe, NATO, & the US. Russia starts building permanent military bases in Russia near the borders. Donetsk & Luhansk start building wall-like structures for the border with Ukraine. Building of embassies are announced. Allied countries continue to beet the drum that Russia is going to invade, but they do not. NATO moves military units into Ukraine, and Russia counters with a series of strong economic escalations: Reducing (but not cutting off) the sale of gas to Europe, but dramatically increase the price to net benefit Russia; continue to reduce exposure to the USD and the EURO, while announcing agreements to buy/sell goods in currencies that are friendly to Russia.
Eventually Ukraine will start attacking Donetsk & Luhansk either with full force, or with small attacks. As these escalate, and Russia does NOT respond by invading (but does offer more and more military support to Donetsk & Luhansk), other countries around the world, including China, South Africa, Brazil, and India recognize Donetsk & Luhansk as independent countries. (This could take years and while waiting...)
Russia's economic actions (and likely some "third party" hacking" of US infrastructure) push the economy in the US from deflation (in early 2022) into a reverse of very high inflation (over the next 3 years). At this time, the Federal Reserve starts decoupling the rise of interest rates from the price of interest on the treasury bonds by buying large number of them to keep the yield low, while increasing the interest rate to "fight inflation", effectively monetizing all the US debt as it comes up for renewal. Every country in the world stops rebuying the t-bonds because of the low rate, effectively leaving the Federal Reserve as the only buyer. This causes the USD that are all held internationally to start coming back to the US domestic economy, causing very high inflation.
vector7
Dot Collector
Well it started on the 70th year with the Communist in Chief Obama...
Barack Obama: President Pantywaist Restores the Satellite States to Their Former Owner
The Telegraph ^ | Gerlad Warner
Posted on 9/25/2009, 3:06:16 PM by nickcarraway
Barack Obama’s chances of re-election in three and a half years’ time may be evaporating at unprecedented speed, but his presidential ambitions could still be realised in another direction. He would be a shoo-in to win the next Russian presidential election, so high is his popularity now running in the land of the bear and the knout. Obama has done more to restore Russia’s hegemonial potential in Eastern and Central Europe than even Vladimir Putin.
His latest achievement has been to restore the former satellite states to dependency on Moscow, by wimping out of the missile defence shield plan. This follows on his surrender last July when he voluntarily sacrificed around a third of America’s nuclear capability for no perceptible benefit beyond a grim smile from Putin. If there is one thing that fans the fires of aggression it is appeasement.
Despite propaganda to the contrary, 58 per cent of Poles were in favour of the missile shield. But small nations must assess the political will of larger powers. Thanks to President Pantywaist’s supine policies, the former satellite states can see that they are fast returning to their former status. The American umbrella cannot be relied upon on a rainy day. They have been here before. Poles remember how a leftist US president sold them out to Russia at Tehran and Yalta. The former Czechoslovakia was betrayed twice: in 1938 and 1945.
If the word is out that America is in retreat, it will soon find it has no friends. The satellites will pragmatically accept their restored subordination, without openly acknowledging it, and co-operate with their dangerous neighbour, ushering in a new generation of Finlandisation.
Bringing unstable states like Georgia into Nato would be a liability, not a defence.
Obama Betrays Poland On 70th Anniversary Of Soviet Invasion
Thursday, September 17, 2009
After winning 57 states in the last election Obama is feeling invincible. So invincible that while shoving Socialism down our throats, he is releasing Socialist Russia to drive our international policy to their wishes and against Eastern Europe and the United States.
OBAMA KILLS MISSILE DEFENSE FOR POLAND, CZECH...
Makes announcement on 70th anniversary of Soviet invasion...
Poland, who defied the Communist Soviet Union and the Socialist Nazis in WWII, defied the Soviet Union again in the 1980's until the Soviet Iron Curtain fell.
Between the taking of their lands by the Soviets, the horrendous slaughter, organized rape and the 100s of thousands of Poles sent to concentration camps and gulags in Russia, the Poles have learned to have a long memory of the betrayal and deceit used against them.
Polish Prime Minister Refuses To Take Hillary's Call...
The soviet government hiding in the closets of Putin and Medvedev has shown what it will do with impunity.
McCOTTER: Russia's invasion of Georgia - Washington Times
Georgia forced to accept a Russian occupation
Obama has proven himself to be a pretty dim bulb, but this type of betrayal is beyond my imagination, especially given the history of Russia, its Soviet horrors and Putin. President G. W. Bush said he had looked in Putin's eyes and saw that he could be trusted. Fortunately, Bush came to his senses and moved to protect Poland and the Czech Republic from not only Iran and North Korea, but also Russia.
Now, Obama has screwed the nuclear pooch concerning North Korea and Iran and has knuckled under to the real power in Russia, Putin.
President Lech Walesa and President Ronald Reagan both are weeping at not only this betrayal, but also the sheer incompetence of the current administration. Until it is replaced, America will continue to lose influence for the good and the respect of our allies.What is there to trust now?
Obama bows to Russia & betrays Poland --Europe sees a policy of appeasement
September 17, 8:13 AMOrange County Conservative Examiner
Gregory Dail
Russians luv Obama
The Wall Street Journal is reporting: U.S. Shelves Nuclear-Missile Shield: Czech Interim Prime Minister Gets Midnight Call. America’s Commander-in-Chief and former ACORN organizer, Barack Obama, is caving to the Russians who were furious about the system being built in Poland and the Czech Republic.
At least when Obama apologizes for the USA breaking its word he’ll be talking about himself and he’ll be begging for forgiveness from our European allies who already have begun bashing the ACORN Kid.
The UK Telegraph reports the USA surrendering to Russian (Barack Obama surrenders to Russia on Missile Defence)and aren’t very happy that Obama is not living up to commitments made by the USA.
This is bad news for all who care about the US commitment to the transatlantic alliance and the defence of Europe as well as the United States. It represents the appalling appeasement of Russian aggression and a willingness to sacrifice American allies on the altar of political expediency. A deal with the Russians to cancel missile defence installations sends a clear message that even Washington can be intimidated by the Russian bear."
Diagram of the Missile Defense System in Europe
Der Spiegel, a German news outlet writes in, Obama To Shelve Plan for Missile Shield in Eastern Europe,
“Critics believe Obama's moves on the missile shield could also be an attempt on the part of the US to win Moscow's backing for new sanctions against Iran. But there is growing concern in Eastern Europe that rapprochement between Washington and Moscow could come at the expense of the United States' allies in the former Eastern Bloc. "The Poles are nervous," one senior US military official told the newspaper.”
Poland feeling betrayed yet is still optimistic that promises could be kept as indicated by Poland's deputy foreign minister, Andrzej Kremer, who told Reuters Thursday there was a "-strong chance that the shield project might be halted…In 10 days, Deputy Defense Minister Stanislaw Komorowski and I will go to Washington to find out," he said.
America’s favorite Pole former Polish President Lech Walesa weighed in that he was deeply disappointed by the new US administration's plans.
"The Americans have always only taken care of their own interests and they have used everyone else," Walesa told Polish news station TVN24.
Lech added that Poles must rethink their own view of America and start thinking about their own interests and that he expected the Obama administration’s betrayal.
Sadly our Government’s incompetence and lack of honor spreading outside our borders and Americans used to me known around the world for honoring its agreements. Remember Warsaw and Washington signed an agreement a year ago to stationed 10 interceptor missiles in Poland. A US installation was supposed to have been built at the former air base Redzikowo in northwestern Poland.
Russia 'simulates' nuclear attack on Poland
Russia has provoked outrage in Poland by simulating an air and sea attack on the country during military exercises.
By Matthew Day in Warsaw
Published: 4:37PM GMT 01 Nov 2009
Comments 68 | Comment on this article
A Russian military tank in action in Georgia Photo: Getty Images
The armed forces are said to have carried out "war games" in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country's coast.
Documents obtained by Wprost, one of Poland's leading news magazines, said the exercise was carried out in conjunction with soldiers from Belarus.
The manoeuvres are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.
Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the "potential aggressor".
The documents state the exercises, code-named "West", were officially classified as "defensive" but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.
The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a "Polish" beach and attacked a gas pipeline.
The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.
Karol Karski, an MP from Poland's Law and Justice, is to table parliamentary questions on Russia's war games and has protested to the European Commission.
His colleague, Marek Opiola MP, said: "It's an attempt to put us in our place. Don't forget all this happened on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland."
Ordinary Poles were outraged by news of the exercise and demanded a firm response fro the government.
One man, identified only as Ted, told Polskie Radio: "Russia has laid bare its real intentions with respect to Poland. Every Pole most now get of the off the fence and be counted as a patriot or a traitor."
Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, has tried to build a pragmatic relationship with the Kremlin despite widespread and vocal calls in Poland for him to cool ties with Moscow.
After spending 40 years under Soviet domination few in Poland trust Russia, and many Poles have become increasingly wary of a country they consider as possessing a neo-imperialistic agenda.
Bogdan Klich, Poland’s defence minister, said: “It is a demonstration of strength. We are monitoring the exercises to see what has been planned.
Wladyslaw Stasiak, chief of President Lech Kaczynski’s office, and a former head of Poland’s National Security Council, added: “We didn’t like the appearance of the exercises and the name harked back to the days of the Warsaw Pact.”
The Russian troop exercises will come as an unwelcome sight to the states nestling on Russia’s western border who have deep-rooted anxieties over any Russian show of strength.
With a resurgent Moscow now more willing to flex its muscles, Central and Eastern Europeans have warned of Russia adopting a neo-imperialistic attitude to an area of the world it still regards as its sphere of influence.
In July, the region’s most famed and influential political figures, including Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel, wrote an open letter Barack Obama warning him that Russia “is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and methods.”
Moscow and Minsk have insisted that Operation West was to help "ensure the strategic stability in the East European region".
TheChrome
Contributing Member
IF NATO is resolved, the one thing Russia will not be able to do is establish air superiority. The United States alone has more fighter jets than Russia and China combined, and then you add NATO. If the US and NATO gets involved, they would quickly establish air superiority and Russia's only option is Nuclear. Their air defenses will simply be destroyed.
jward
passin' thru
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
On Fox News, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) floats the idea of bombing Russian military assets -- and says he wouldn't even rule out a nuclear strike
Wicker’s office clarified that the senator is not advocating for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He’s urging the president to fully consider all measures to prevent Russia from overtaking an ally.
View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1468327122133467143?s=20
@atrupar
On Fox News, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) floats the idea of bombing Russian military assets -- and says he wouldn't even rule out a nuclear strike
Wicker’s office clarified that the senator is not advocating for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He’s urging the president to fully consider all measures to prevent Russia from overtaking an ally.
View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1468327122133467143?s=20
northern watch
TB Fanatic
that type of talk will get you killed!
northern watch
TB Fanatic
The United States fighter jets are divided between, the Far East, the Middle East and Europe. As for NATO, do not expect too much there. NATO let the Peace Dividend go to their social programs.
jward
passin' thru
No chit. BP raised 10 pnts and ain't come down since I read that; would smack him upside the head a few times were I close enough!! 
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
4h
Kosovo, Albania Ready to Help any Potential US-led Ukraine Mission
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1468381216424484865?s=20
TheChrome
Contributing Member
Another thing to consider is that Russian jets require a greater amount of "downtime" for maintenance. True they are designed to be able to function in warlike environments such as taking off and landing on non-prepared runways, however they have many mechanical difficulties. Ultimately it depends on who can field more aircraft at a given time.
vector7
Dot Collector
Biden has bit off more than we can chew. Ukraine in NATO is Putin's red line. Ukraine's fate was sealed when dopey Bill Clinton pursuaded Ukraine to give up nukes as condition to breaking off from former USSR. Then had to run to NATO, which is unprepared for this. Nice job Joe.
View: https://twitter.com/WoollumsM/status/1377708020520656897?t=pRhHdPAn5D3TPk6yCU-TaQ&s=19
Except Hillary and Obama gave US uranium to Putin. Putin ended up building nukes pointing at @NATO and Obama laughed at Romney when he said Russia was a big threat in 2012. If anyone is Russian asset it’s Clinton-Obama-Biden axis of evil
View: https://twitter.com/1689Winnipeger/status/1253859732537905152?t=OTZ_8TEnv7vY3dvzxBGIyQ&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/WoollumsM/status/1377708020520656897?t=pRhHdPAn5D3TPk6yCU-TaQ&s=19
Except Hillary and Obama gave US uranium to Putin. Putin ended up building nukes pointing at @NATO and Obama laughed at Romney when he said Russia was a big threat in 2012. If anyone is Russian asset it’s Clinton-Obama-Biden axis of evil
View: https://twitter.com/1689Winnipeger/status/1253859732537905152?t=OTZ_8TEnv7vY3dvzxBGIyQ&s=19
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
6h
Field commander from occupied parts of Donetsk region Khodakovsky is complaining that they have no order from Moscow to harass and provoke Ukrainian army to get retaliation fire and ask Russia for help
Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
6h
Field commander from occupied parts of Donetsk region Khodakovsky is complaining that they have no order from Moscow to harass and provoke Ukrainian army to get retaliation fire and ask Russia for help
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
2h
The build-up of a military forces on the Belarusian border by Ukraine may lead to a local conflict, the Security Council of Belarus said. https://belarus.liveuamap.com/en/2021/8-december-the-buildup-of-a-military-forces-on-the-belarusian… #Belarus
Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
2h
The build-up of a military forces on the Belarusian border by Ukraine may lead to a local conflict, the Security Council of Belarus said. https://belarus.liveuamap.com/en/2021/8-december-the-buildup-of-a-military-forces-on-the-belarusian… #Belarus
naegling62
Veteran Member
You? How about All of us.
...Unless Russia blinds us by taking out satellites....
rmomaha
The Wise Man Prepares
This is true. But if we go to war with China and Russia, their forces outnumber ours.
Yup ... staging and fielding in the theatre of operations is the key. So, the key for bringing in the numerical advantage is the ability to base these warbirds at airbases in the conflict area and supply the bases with needed fuel, parts, weapons, food, etc to keep the machines and men in action. So what would be Russia's counter? My guess would be disruption of the GPS chain and missile saturation attacks on the airbases in question. The bases can't move .... and really can't be hidden. Deny the base and all those 1000s of shiny warbirds in the states don't mean squat where the fighting is taking place.
jward
passin' thru
U.S. Threatens ‘Extreme’ Sanctions if Russia Invades Ukraine
U.S. News StaffJuly 6, 2021
4-5 minutes
The U.S. response to Russia if it proceeds with an invasion of Ukraine will be “far harsher” than retribution for its last intervention in the former Soviet state, a top State Department official told Congress on Tuesday, offering the first specific details of President Joe Biden’s threats to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a call that concluded moments before.
The administration is preparing “Day 1 measures, Day 5 measures, Day 10 measures,” the most extreme of which will include a military response, Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee shortly after the end of the two leaders’ highly anticipated call. However, Nuland quickly shifted the subject back to potential economic sanctions.
“But it’s also important for President Putin to understand,” she added, “that this will be different than it was in 2014 if he goes in.”
U.S. sanctions in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the beginning of its ongoing intervention in Ukraine’s easten reaches “escalated then somewhat gradually,” Nuland said.
“This time, the intent is to make clear that the initial sanctions in response to any further aggressive moves in Ukraine will be extremely significant and isolating for Russia and for Russian business and for the Russian people.”
Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops in positions to Ukraine’s north, east and south in recent days. U.S. officials believe it could invade as soon as next month.
Nuland’s comments on Tuesday echoed pledges moments before from the committee’s chairman, Sen. Bob Menendez, saying the sanctions the U.S. would impose on Russia as retribution for invading Ukraine “are not run-of-the-mill sanctions.”
“What is being discussed are the maximum end of the spectrum, or what I have called, ‘The mother of all sanction,’” the New Jersey Democrat said.
Nuland also observed that the Ukrainian military has become much more capable since a U.S.-backed coalition began training its forces in the aftermath of the 2014 invasion and as a result of new weapons and equipment – the supply of which Congress has approved with unusual bipartisanship.
“The Russians will have a very big fight on their hands, there will be severe casualties for them, and frankly it’s hard to comprehend” why Russia would pursue military action at a time its people suffer heavily from the spread of the coronavirus, Nuland said, “rather than building back better inside Russia.”
In their two-hour call on Monday morning, Biden called on Putin for “de-escalation and a return to diplomacy,” and they both agreed their respective administrations will follow up, according to a readout from the White House. It added, “the U.S. will do so in close coordination with allies and partners.”
At the center of the new tension lies Putin’s apparent outrage that Ukraine, the former Soviet republic with deep political and cultural connections to Russia, has indicated its intention to join NATO, the Cold War-era alliance designed to offset the Soviet Union. He has subsequently deployed tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine’s east – adjacent to the ongoing conflict zone there – as well as to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia controls, as well as to Belarus, to Ukraine’s north.
Though the U.S. has stated that it’s willing to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and threatened to employ devastating sanctions if Russia were to invade, reports emerged Monday during the call that Washington’s position is relatively limited. Nuland reportedly briefed members of Congress late Monday on American options to deter Russia, which some lawmakers interpreted as “gloomy,” CNN reports.
National security analysts also observe that an ultimatum on the issue would come down to whether the U.S. or Russia were willing to go to war over Ukraine. Putin has indicated he is, despite the fact that he would likely suffer blowback domestically for doing so.
U.S. News StaffJuly 6, 2021
4-5 minutes
The U.S. response to Russia if it proceeds with an invasion of Ukraine will be “far harsher” than retribution for its last intervention in the former Soviet state, a top State Department official told Congress on Tuesday, offering the first specific details of President Joe Biden’s threats to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a call that concluded moments before.
The administration is preparing “Day 1 measures, Day 5 measures, Day 10 measures,” the most extreme of which will include a military response, Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee shortly after the end of the two leaders’ highly anticipated call. However, Nuland quickly shifted the subject back to potential economic sanctions.
“But it’s also important for President Putin to understand,” she added, “that this will be different than it was in 2014 if he goes in.”
U.S. sanctions in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the beginning of its ongoing intervention in Ukraine’s easten reaches “escalated then somewhat gradually,” Nuland said.
“This time, the intent is to make clear that the initial sanctions in response to any further aggressive moves in Ukraine will be extremely significant and isolating for Russia and for Russian business and for the Russian people.”
Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops in positions to Ukraine’s north, east and south in recent days. U.S. officials believe it could invade as soon as next month.
Nuland’s comments on Tuesday echoed pledges moments before from the committee’s chairman, Sen. Bob Menendez, saying the sanctions the U.S. would impose on Russia as retribution for invading Ukraine “are not run-of-the-mill sanctions.”
“What is being discussed are the maximum end of the spectrum, or what I have called, ‘The mother of all sanction,’” the New Jersey Democrat said.
Nuland also observed that the Ukrainian military has become much more capable since a U.S.-backed coalition began training its forces in the aftermath of the 2014 invasion and as a result of new weapons and equipment – the supply of which Congress has approved with unusual bipartisanship.
“The Russians will have a very big fight on their hands, there will be severe casualties for them, and frankly it’s hard to comprehend” why Russia would pursue military action at a time its people suffer heavily from the spread of the coronavirus, Nuland said, “rather than building back better inside Russia.”
In their two-hour call on Monday morning, Biden called on Putin for “de-escalation and a return to diplomacy,” and they both agreed their respective administrations will follow up, according to a readout from the White House. It added, “the U.S. will do so in close coordination with allies and partners.”
At the center of the new tension lies Putin’s apparent outrage that Ukraine, the former Soviet republic with deep political and cultural connections to Russia, has indicated its intention to join NATO, the Cold War-era alliance designed to offset the Soviet Union. He has subsequently deployed tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine’s east – adjacent to the ongoing conflict zone there – as well as to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia controls, as well as to Belarus, to Ukraine’s north.
Though the U.S. has stated that it’s willing to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and threatened to employ devastating sanctions if Russia were to invade, reports emerged Monday during the call that Washington’s position is relatively limited. Nuland reportedly briefed members of Congress late Monday on American options to deter Russia, which some lawmakers interpreted as “gloomy,” CNN reports.
National security analysts also observe that an ultimatum on the issue would come down to whether the U.S. or Russia were willing to go to war over Ukraine. Putin has indicated he is, despite the fact that he would likely suffer blowback domestically for doing so.
OldAndCrazy
Pureblood Forever
This is from back in July. So it tells me they've been priming the pump for awhile.
jward
passin' thru
Putin Says Dialogue With U.S. On European Security To Continue
December 08, 2021 15:46 GMT
"We cannot but be concerned about the prospect of Ukraine's possible admission to NATO, because this will undoubtedly be followed by the deployment of appropriate military contingents, bases, and weapons that threaten us," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (file photo)
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Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will send proposals to the United States within a week after agreeing with U.S. President Joe Biden to appoint envoys to continue talks on security across Europe, amid heightened tensions over a buildup of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.
Speaking with reporters in Moscow a day after two hours of talks between Putin and Biden via video link, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the creation of envoys would be quick, though no date for direct talks between the two leaders had been set.
"The presidents agreed to appoint their representatives, who will very promptly begin a discussion of this complex, confrontational situation, a discussion of strategic security issues on the continent," Peskov said on December 8.
During the December 7 meeting, Biden warned Putin that Russia would be hit with "strong economic and other measures" as punishment should Moscow launch an offensive against Ukraine, according to the White House.
SEE ALSO: He Said, He Said: Russian, U.S. Statements On Biden-Putin Call Differ Starkly
The meeting -- the third direct set of talks between Putin and Biden since January -- came as already tense relations between Washington and Moscow are poised to plummet further over threats of a new potential invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.
In recent months, Putin and other Russian officials have said, with increasing bluntness, that the prospect of Ukraine ever joining NATO was a "red line" that would be met with an unspecified response from Moscow.
Ukrainian officials have said as many as 90,000 Russian troops are deployed in regions near the Ukrainian border and on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized in 2014.
Last weekend, unnamed U.S. officials told The Washington Post and other U.S. news media that Russia was poised to use up to 175,000 troops in a multifront offensive against Ukraine early next year.
The military buildup near Ukraine is one of the largest in years, setting off alarm bells in Ukraine and Western capitals.
SEE ALSO: U.S. House Passes Defense Bill Allocating Funding For Ukraine's Military, Baltic Stability
"President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European allies about Russia's escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation," the White House said.
Biden also made no "commitments or concessions" on Putin's demands, the White House added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the Putin-Biden meeting "
positive," with the victory for Kyiv lying in the fact that "the United States has always supported Ukraine, our sovereignty and independence."
"But the most important thing is that now we see a real and personal reaction from President Biden and his personal role in resolving the conflict," he added. Zelenskiy is expected to hold talks with Biden on December 10.
The Kremlin said Putin told Biden that NATO was bolstering its military capabilities near Russia's borders and "making dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory."
In his comments on December 8, he reiterated those concerns, stressing that NATO's eastward expansion was a "very sensitive" issue for Russia.
"We cannot but be concerned about the prospect of Ukraine's possible admission to NATO, because this will undoubtedly be followed by the deployment of appropriate military contingents, bases, and weapons that threaten us," he said.
Though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and is unlikely to be for some years, Russia views the prospect of Kyiv joining the alliance as a threat, following NATO's expansion into former Soviet bloc states in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
SEE ALSO: Most Ukrainians Want To Join NATO
It was unclear exactly what punishment the Biden administration was threatening to wield if Russia were to launch an attack on Ukraine. Some analysts have pointed to the possibility Russia could be cut off from the international system of financial payments known as SWIFT, a move that would devastate the Russian economy.
Another possible punitive measure would be a renewed effort to block Nord Stream 2, the Baltic Sea pipeline that will significantly increase Russian natural-gas supplies to Europe via Germany once it is approved by regulators.
Earlier this year, the Biden administration reached a deal with Germany that averted sanctions on the pipeline’s operator, removing a major irritant in relations between the two allies. But in recent days German officials have warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine would put an end to the pipeline.
France on December 8 warned Moscow it would face "strategic and massive consequences" if Russia attacked Ukraine, noting that in phone calls between five major Western allies -- France, Britain, Italy, Germany and the United States -- there was a "determination that the sovereignty of Ukraine be respected."
Ukraine has been fighting a war against Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine since early 2014 that has killed more than 13,200 people. Russia asserts Kyiv is failing to meet its commitments under the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements aimed at putting an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
SEE ALSO: Talk Of War: Frontline Ukrainian Soldiers Respond To Invasion Warnings
After Biden and Putin met in Geneva in June, many experts hoped that the Ukraine conflict would inch toward resolution, as Washington and Moscow looked for ways to arrest the downward spiral in relations.
The two leaders also spoke by telephone in July, when Biden called on Putin to do more to crack down on ransomware and hacking attacks against the United States. Many of the leading ransomware groups either operate in, or originate from, Russia.
Biden has also dispatched other senior administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns and veteran Russian expert Victoria Nuland, now undersecretary of state for political affairs, to Moscow to try to mend fences.
www.rferl.org
December 08, 2021 15:46 GMT
- By RFE/RL
"We cannot but be concerned about the prospect of Ukraine's possible admission to NATO, because this will undoubtedly be followed by the deployment of appropriate military contingents, bases, and weapons that threaten us," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. (file photo)
Share
Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will send proposals to the United States within a week after agreeing with U.S. President Joe Biden to appoint envoys to continue talks on security across Europe, amid heightened tensions over a buildup of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine.
Speaking with reporters in Moscow a day after two hours of talks between Putin and Biden via video link, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the creation of envoys would be quick, though no date for direct talks between the two leaders had been set.
"The presidents agreed to appoint their representatives, who will very promptly begin a discussion of this complex, confrontational situation, a discussion of strategic security issues on the continent," Peskov said on December 8.
During the December 7 meeting, Biden warned Putin that Russia would be hit with "strong economic and other measures" as punishment should Moscow launch an offensive against Ukraine, according to the White House.
SEE ALSO: He Said, He Said: Russian, U.S. Statements On Biden-Putin Call Differ Starkly
The meeting -- the third direct set of talks between Putin and Biden since January -- came as already tense relations between Washington and Moscow are poised to plummet further over threats of a new potential invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.
In recent months, Putin and other Russian officials have said, with increasing bluntness, that the prospect of Ukraine ever joining NATO was a "red line" that would be met with an unspecified response from Moscow.
Ukrainian officials have said as many as 90,000 Russian troops are deployed in regions near the Ukrainian border and on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized in 2014.
Last weekend, unnamed U.S. officials told The Washington Post and other U.S. news media that Russia was poised to use up to 175,000 troops in a multifront offensive against Ukraine early next year.
The military buildup near Ukraine is one of the largest in years, setting off alarm bells in Ukraine and Western capitals.
SEE ALSO: U.S. House Passes Defense Bill Allocating Funding For Ukraine's Military, Baltic Stability
"President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European allies about Russia's escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation," the White House said.
Biden also made no "commitments or concessions" on Putin's demands, the White House added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the Putin-Biden meeting "
positive," with the victory for Kyiv lying in the fact that "the United States has always supported Ukraine, our sovereignty and independence."
"But the most important thing is that now we see a real and personal reaction from President Biden and his personal role in resolving the conflict," he added. Zelenskiy is expected to hold talks with Biden on December 10.
The Kremlin said Putin told Biden that NATO was bolstering its military capabilities near Russia's borders and "making dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory."
In his comments on December 8, he reiterated those concerns, stressing that NATO's eastward expansion was a "very sensitive" issue for Russia.
"We cannot but be concerned about the prospect of Ukraine's possible admission to NATO, because this will undoubtedly be followed by the deployment of appropriate military contingents, bases, and weapons that threaten us," he said.
Though Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and is unlikely to be for some years, Russia views the prospect of Kyiv joining the alliance as a threat, following NATO's expansion into former Soviet bloc states in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
SEE ALSO: Most Ukrainians Want To Join NATO
It was unclear exactly what punishment the Biden administration was threatening to wield if Russia were to launch an attack on Ukraine. Some analysts have pointed to the possibility Russia could be cut off from the international system of financial payments known as SWIFT, a move that would devastate the Russian economy.
Another possible punitive measure would be a renewed effort to block Nord Stream 2, the Baltic Sea pipeline that will significantly increase Russian natural-gas supplies to Europe via Germany once it is approved by regulators.
Earlier this year, the Biden administration reached a deal with Germany that averted sanctions on the pipeline’s operator, removing a major irritant in relations between the two allies. But in recent days German officials have warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine would put an end to the pipeline.
France on December 8 warned Moscow it would face "strategic and massive consequences" if Russia attacked Ukraine, noting that in phone calls between five major Western allies -- France, Britain, Italy, Germany and the United States -- there was a "determination that the sovereignty of Ukraine be respected."
Ukraine has been fighting a war against Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine since early 2014 that has killed more than 13,200 people. Russia asserts Kyiv is failing to meet its commitments under the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements aimed at putting an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
SEE ALSO: Talk Of War: Frontline Ukrainian Soldiers Respond To Invasion Warnings
After Biden and Putin met in Geneva in June, many experts hoped that the Ukraine conflict would inch toward resolution, as Washington and Moscow looked for ways to arrest the downward spiral in relations.
The two leaders also spoke by telephone in July, when Biden called on Putin to do more to crack down on ransomware and hacking attacks against the United States. Many of the leading ransomware groups either operate in, or originate from, Russia.
Biden has also dispatched other senior administration officials, including CIA Director Bill Burns and veteran Russian expert Victoria Nuland, now undersecretary of state for political affairs, to Moscow to try to mend fences.
Putin Repeats Opposition To NATO Membership For Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeated his insistence that Ukraine should not join NATO, while U.S. President Joe Biden says that Washington has no intention of sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine against any new Russian invasion.
www.rferl.org
jward
passin' thru
Steve Herman
@W7VOA
5m
Unilateral US military action regarding Ukraine is “not in the cards," @POTUS tells reporters before boarding Marine One.
Conversation with Putin "was very straightforward," says @POTUS. "I made very clear if, in fact, he invaded Ukraine there will be severe consequences," including the US providing additional defensive capability to the Ukrainians.
@W7VOA
5m
Unilateral US military action regarding Ukraine is “not in the cards," @POTUS tells reporters before boarding Marine One.
Conversation with Putin "was very straightforward," says @POTUS. "I made very clear if, in fact, he invaded Ukraine there will be severe consequences," including the US providing additional defensive capability to the Ukrainians.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Status-6
@Archer83Able
·
49m
The Russian Foreign Ministry sent a note of protest to the US Embassy in Moscow on Wednesday warning of the "dangerous consequences of NATO/US provocations along the Russian borders."
Status-6
@Archer83Able
·
49m
The Russian Foreign Ministry sent a note of protest to the US Embassy in Moscow on Wednesday warning of the "dangerous consequences of NATO/US provocations along the Russian borders."
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3 Retweeted
Idrees Ali
@idreesali114
·
1h
U.S. President Biden says putting U.S. troops on the ground is not on the table regarding Russia-Ukraine and Washington would not unilaterally use force against Russia for invading Ukraine.
Idrees Ali
@idreesali114
·
1h
U.S. President Biden says putting U.S. troops on the ground is not on the table regarding Russia-Ukraine and Washington would not unilaterally use force against Russia for invading Ukraine.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
AFP News Agency
@AFP
·
1h
#BReakNG Biden says warned Putin of sanctions 'like none he's ever seen' if Ukraine attacked
@AFP
·
1h
#BReakNG Biden says warned Putin of sanctions 'like none he's ever seen' if Ukraine attacked
danielboon
TB Fanatic
How the US military could mobilize if Russia invades Ukraine
BY
JOHN VANDIVER
• STARS AND STRIPES • DECEMBER 8, 2021
Paratroopers with the 82nd Airborne Division execute a jump during exercise Defender-Europe 21 at Boboc Air Base, Romania, on May 10, 2021. (Jabari Clyburn/U.S. Army)
U.S. paratroopers landing in the Baltics, Army cavalry and artillerymen convoying in from Germany and an armored brigade massing its forces.
Those are some of the moves U.S. European Command could make to shore up NATO’s eastern flank if Russia invades Ukraine, analysts say.
There also will be pressure on NATO to activate its little-used quick reaction spearhead force, a unit created in response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine, to showcase allied unity.
“This (NATO) force was built for just this kind of crisis,” said John R. Deni, a European security expert at the U.S. Army War College. “It’s a force representative of many of the allies. So to not use it now, frankly, risks undermining NATO solidarity.”
U.S. soldiers assigned to 142nd Field Artillery Brigade conduct artillery strike missions during Combined Resolve XV at the Grafenwoehr Training Area, Germany, Feb. 9, 2021. (Corey T. Hanson/U.S. Army)
While it’s not certain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will launch a new invasion of Ukraine, what has become clear is that there will be an allied military response of some form within NATO territory if an attack does occur.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking Tuesday after a meeting between Putin and his American counterpart, Joe Biden, said the U.S. is ready to fortify its NATO allies on the eastern flank.
“What additional capabilities can we provide to ensure that they feel strong and confident in their own sovereignty and territorial integrity?” Sullivan said.
He didn’t specify what the additional capabilities are, but he said they are “on the table in those countries should Russia move in Ukraine in a more decisive way.”
The question now is what types of military maneuvering could come into play if the U.S.-led NATO alliance must boost defenses in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland and Romania.
Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, who commanded EUCOM and served as NATO’s supreme allied commander from 2013-16, said the alliance is better-positioned now to respond to a crisis than it was in 2014, when Moscow suddenly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
“The bottom line is we made some good changes to NATO, and we need to continue to finish what we started,” said Breedlove.
He declined to offer a prescription on how exactly U.S. and allied forces should be mobilized if another invasion of Ukraine occurs. But he did say “a change in readiness is called for.”
EUCOM’s initial response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine offers an indication of what it might do a second time around, notably, enhancing air policing in the Baltics with Air Force F-16s and parachuting 173rd Airborne Brigade soldiers into Poland and the Baltics.
The rapid mobilization focused on assuring allies and deterring Russian aggression.
Subsequent high-profile road convoys by the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, based in Vilseck, Germany, also were part of the Army’s response then.
Deni said similar moves should be expected if allies need to respond once again. But unlike the case seven years ago, the U.S. military is no longer in decline on the Continent, giving EUCOM more forces to choose from.
“Certainly, we didn’t have everything we needed (in 2014),” Breedlove said. “Thankfully, since those days, our forces have only grown in Europe, so that is a good thing.”
For example, in 2014, there were no Army tanks left in Europe. The last of the Army’s M-1 Abrams main battle tanks departed Germany exactly one year before Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Now, a rotational U.S. armored brigade is positioned in Europe year-round.
EUCOM also could elect to mass armored forces, which are often dispersed along the eastern flank, into the Baltics if it wanted to fortify defenses in a reassurance move, Deni said.
In addition, the Army has added aviation capabilities and brought in new artillery units, which are based in Germany, that could be sent to the Baltics and Poland on assurance missions.
A new Multi-Domain Task Force at U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s headquarters, launched in September, also could factor into reinforcement plans in the east, Deni said.
The unit is intended to tie together unconventional warfighting capabilities in the electronic realm.
One area of uncertainty is how much more NATO member states will be willing to do. The alliance already has four multinational battlegroups in the Baltics and Poland that were formed to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
Those units would likely be on heightened alert in the event of an attack on Ukraine.
NATO’s 5,000-troop spearhead force, formally known as the Very High Readiness’ Joint Task Force, also could be activated.
Bringing in that unit, which consists of forces from allied countries, would highlight alliance unity.
“All this will be predicated on a request from allies. If we see them going to NATO and asking for assistance and not getting it in a timely fashion, I think we will see the U.S. act bilaterally,” Deni said. “I sense (the Baltic states and Poland ) want more American boots on the ground, period. I strongly suspect that desire will grow, not diminish.”
However, it’s not clear whether all allies would be on board, analysts said.
“The main problem seems to be that once again, some NATO allies have a different threat perception about Russia and a reluctance to stand up to Putin,” said Jorge Benitez, a NATO expert at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
In Ukraine itself, U.S. National Guard troops and special operations teams are stationed on a training mission. They are positioned far from the ongoing conflict with Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east.
And there is no sign the Pentagon wants to add trainers. Such a move could be seen as escalatory by Russia.
But on Tuesday, Sullivan said Washington is ready to provide additional defensive materiel to Ukrainians beyond the $2.5 billion in security assistance given since 2014.
The U.S. has provided anti-tank Javelins, armed patrol boats, counter-artillery radars and counter-unmanned aerial systems.
“We have an ongoing pipeline that delivers various forms of defensive assistance to Ukraine,” Sullivan said. “Whether that pipeline needs additional supplements as we go forward will depend on how circumstances evolve.”
www.stripes.com
BY
JOHN VANDIVER
• STARS AND STRIPES • DECEMBER 8, 2021
Paratroopers with the 82nd Airborne Division execute a jump during exercise Defender-Europe 21 at Boboc Air Base, Romania, on May 10, 2021. (Jabari Clyburn/U.S. Army)
U.S. paratroopers landing in the Baltics, Army cavalry and artillerymen convoying in from Germany and an armored brigade massing its forces.
Those are some of the moves U.S. European Command could make to shore up NATO’s eastern flank if Russia invades Ukraine, analysts say.
There also will be pressure on NATO to activate its little-used quick reaction spearhead force, a unit created in response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine, to showcase allied unity.
“This (NATO) force was built for just this kind of crisis,” said John R. Deni, a European security expert at the U.S. Army War College. “It’s a force representative of many of the allies. So to not use it now, frankly, risks undermining NATO solidarity.”
U.S. soldiers assigned to 142nd Field Artillery Brigade conduct artillery strike missions during Combined Resolve XV at the Grafenwoehr Training Area, Germany, Feb. 9, 2021. (Corey T. Hanson/U.S. Army)
While it’s not certain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will launch a new invasion of Ukraine, what has become clear is that there will be an allied military response of some form within NATO territory if an attack does occur.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking Tuesday after a meeting between Putin and his American counterpart, Joe Biden, said the U.S. is ready to fortify its NATO allies on the eastern flank.
“What additional capabilities can we provide to ensure that they feel strong and confident in their own sovereignty and territorial integrity?” Sullivan said.
He didn’t specify what the additional capabilities are, but he said they are “on the table in those countries should Russia move in Ukraine in a more decisive way.”
The question now is what types of military maneuvering could come into play if the U.S.-led NATO alliance must boost defenses in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland and Romania.
Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, who commanded EUCOM and served as NATO’s supreme allied commander from 2013-16, said the alliance is better-positioned now to respond to a crisis than it was in 2014, when Moscow suddenly annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
“The bottom line is we made some good changes to NATO, and we need to continue to finish what we started,” said Breedlove.
He declined to offer a prescription on how exactly U.S. and allied forces should be mobilized if another invasion of Ukraine occurs. But he did say “a change in readiness is called for.”
EUCOM’s initial response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine offers an indication of what it might do a second time around, notably, enhancing air policing in the Baltics with Air Force F-16s and parachuting 173rd Airborne Brigade soldiers into Poland and the Baltics.
The rapid mobilization focused on assuring allies and deterring Russian aggression.
Subsequent high-profile road convoys by the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, based in Vilseck, Germany, also were part of the Army’s response then.
Deni said similar moves should be expected if allies need to respond once again. But unlike the case seven years ago, the U.S. military is no longer in decline on the Continent, giving EUCOM more forces to choose from.
“Certainly, we didn’t have everything we needed (in 2014),” Breedlove said. “Thankfully, since those days, our forces have only grown in Europe, so that is a good thing.”
For example, in 2014, there were no Army tanks left in Europe. The last of the Army’s M-1 Abrams main battle tanks departed Germany exactly one year before Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Now, a rotational U.S. armored brigade is positioned in Europe year-round.
EUCOM also could elect to mass armored forces, which are often dispersed along the eastern flank, into the Baltics if it wanted to fortify defenses in a reassurance move, Deni said.
In addition, the Army has added aviation capabilities and brought in new artillery units, which are based in Germany, that could be sent to the Baltics and Poland on assurance missions.
A new Multi-Domain Task Force at U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s headquarters, launched in September, also could factor into reinforcement plans in the east, Deni said.
The unit is intended to tie together unconventional warfighting capabilities in the electronic realm.
One area of uncertainty is how much more NATO member states will be willing to do. The alliance already has four multinational battlegroups in the Baltics and Poland that were formed to serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression.
Those units would likely be on heightened alert in the event of an attack on Ukraine.
NATO’s 5,000-troop spearhead force, formally known as the Very High Readiness’ Joint Task Force, also could be activated.
Bringing in that unit, which consists of forces from allied countries, would highlight alliance unity.
“All this will be predicated on a request from allies. If we see them going to NATO and asking for assistance and not getting it in a timely fashion, I think we will see the U.S. act bilaterally,” Deni said. “I sense (the Baltic states and Poland ) want more American boots on the ground, period. I strongly suspect that desire will grow, not diminish.”
However, it’s not clear whether all allies would be on board, analysts said.
“The main problem seems to be that once again, some NATO allies have a different threat perception about Russia and a reluctance to stand up to Putin,” said Jorge Benitez, a NATO expert at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
In Ukraine itself, U.S. National Guard troops and special operations teams are stationed on a training mission. They are positioned far from the ongoing conflict with Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east.
And there is no sign the Pentagon wants to add trainers. Such a move could be seen as escalatory by Russia.
But on Tuesday, Sullivan said Washington is ready to provide additional defensive materiel to Ukrainians beyond the $2.5 billion in security assistance given since 2014.
The U.S. has provided anti-tank Javelins, armed patrol boats, counter-artillery radars and counter-unmanned aerial systems.
“We have an ongoing pipeline that delivers various forms of defensive assistance to Ukraine,” Sullivan said. “Whether that pipeline needs additional supplements as we go forward will depend on how circumstances evolve.”
How the US military could mobilize if Russia invades Ukraine
Here are some of the moves that analysts say US European Command could make to shore up NATO’s eastern flank if Russia invades Ukraine.