ALERT russian troops headed to the border of ukraine

jward

passin' thru
Q+A What is the risk of a war between Russia and Ukraine?
By Mark Trevelyan

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a news conference following talks with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia September 9, 2021. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov

A serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces takes part in military drills at a training ground near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in Kherson region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine press service November 17, 2021. Press Service of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

Servicemen are seen near the village of Zolote, disengagement area of government and Russian-backed rebel troops, in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, Ukraine November 2, 2019.   REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File Photo

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A serviceman of the Ukrainian Armed Forces takes part in military drills at a training ground near the border with Russian-annexed Crimea in Kherson region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine press service November 17, 2021. Press Service of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo


Nov 23 (Reuters) - Russian troop movements near Ukraine have drawn concern from Kyiv and the United States that it might be considering attacking its neighbour. Here is a look at some of the questions that raises.

WHAT ARE THE TWO SIDES SAYING ABOUT THE RISK OF CONFLICT?


Russia denies threatening anyone and says it can deploy its troops on its own territory as it pleases. It has accused Ukraine and NATO of whipping up tensions and suggested Kyiv might be preparing to try to seize back two eastern regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Russia's foreign spy agency this week compared the situation with the build-up to a 2008 war in which Russia's forces crushed those of neighbouring Georgia. read more

Ukraine denies planning any such offensive and says Russia has more than 92,000 troops massed near its borders for a possible attack. read more


HOW LIKELY IS A RUSSIAN INVASION?

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen sources, including Western intelligence officials and Russians familiar with Kremlin thinking, and nearly all agreed that an invasion is unlikely to be imminent. A more plausible scenario, they said, was that President Vladimir Putin is using the credible threat of military force to signal that Russia is serious about defending its "red lines" on Ukraine. It has stated numerous times in recent weeks that it is not prepared to accept the supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine or any NATO military presence there, let alone the prospect of eventual Ukrainian membership of the alliance. Putin, these sources added, is adept at escalating and de-escalating crises - as he did in the spring, when more than 100,000 Russian troops gathered near Ukraine's border and subsequently pulled back. In this way, he is keeping Russia's opponents guessing about his intentions and reminding the West that Russia is a force to be reckoned with.


IF IT DID COME TO WAR, WHAT MIGHT THAT LOOK LIKE?

Russia's armed forces have 900,000 active personnel compared with 209,000 for Ukraine, an advantage of more than four to one, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). But Samir Puri, senior fellow in hybrid warfare at the IISS, said the real advantage for Russia was that it already has proxies fighting in the separatist war in eastern Ukraine, giving it the option to link up with them and extend the area already under their control. Were it to go for a broader invasion, he said, it could contemplate attacking from the north (from Russia and its ally Belarus), from the east or from the south (via Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014), with a naval assault on the cities of Odessa and Mariupol.

HOW PREPARED IS UKRAINE TO DEFEND ITSELF?

Ukraine is significantly stronger militarily than in 2014, when it lost Crimea to Russia without a real fight. It has advanced anti-tank missiles supplied by Washington, and could draw on U.S. intelligence support. But it would still face an overwhelming adversary - the Russian advantage in battle tanks, for example, is more than three to one.

"For Ukraine, the issue would be ... to resist as much as they can, pray for assistance from the West, and ultimately fight back," said Mathieu Boulegue, a research fellow at London's Chatham House think-tank. "If Russia invades in full, the question for Kyiv will be to mount counter-insurrection-style warfare to make the cost of invasion tremendous for Russia."

WHAT ELSE MIGHT DETER MOSCOW?

The West imposed sanctions on Russia after the seizure of Crimea and could add painful new measures, such as preventing it from pumping Russian gas through the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. Putin would risk a complete rupture of relations with the West if he invaded. It is unclear how far NATO might come to the defence of Ukraine, something that would be fraught with risk for all sides. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but doing nothing would leave the alliance looking irrelevant.

"This is the brinkmanship game that is playing out. Both in NATO in Brussels and in Moscow there will be calculations around where the escalatory steps could lead. If NATO was to deploy to fight ... the Russians would see this as an unbelievable escalation," said Puri.

"Whether (Ukraine) ends up as a battleground I think is unlikely - but really that's the issue that Russia and NATO are fencing around at the moment in Ukraine."
 

Techwreck

Senior Member
Have to assume that both sides are listening in on much if not all of each other's communications.

The repeated statements from Austin and Nato spokespersons about not knowing what Russia is up to seems a little too coordinated.
Are they picking up the actual plans or dis-info? Or truly clueless (like the US Energy Sec.)?

If either side opens their can of whoop-ass, there are likely to be some serious surprises.

I wish that Nato would stop squeezing east, as Russia will react, just like we would hate Mexico being absorbed into the Russia/China axis with weapons and troops being stationed there.

It looks to me like Nato/US has decided to escalate and force a fight with the Russians through their Ukrainian proxies, and I fear Putin can't be bought, bribed or threatened into surrendering his country to the global criminal cabal that is taking over the planet.

In a way, it seems like Putin faces the same choice that many Americans are coming to understand with our installed regime....
submit or else.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
I wish that Nato would stop squeezing east, as Russia will react, just like we would hate Mexico being absorbed into the Russia/China axis with weapons and troops being stationed there.
Quintessential to the entire situation. Putin will not back down. He will never permit NATO bases on Russia's borders at ANY price.
 

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
Either this is the best publicized future invasion ever, or this just further Russian saber rattling. I believe it is more saber rattling than anything else!
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ukraine launches 'special operation' on Belarus border, holds Javelin drills
By Pavel Polityuk




2 minute read

KYIV, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Ukraine, which has accused Russia of massing troops nearby and says Belarus could send migrants over its borders, launched an operation on Wednesday to strengthen its frontier, including military drills for anti-tank and airborne units.
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
EndGameWW3

@EndGameWW3

·
2h

This will be the battle for Ukraine whether it be now or 10 years from now. Russia doesn't want NATO to have it, NATO doesn't want Russia to have it. There is only one way to settle it sadly enough and I guarantee it won't happen by shaking hands.
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Canada considers boosting military aid to Ukraine as Russia amasses troops at the border
MARK MACKINNONSENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
LONDON
PUBLISHED 7 HOURS AGOUPDATED 5 HOURS AGO

Russian military vehicles prepare to be loaded into a plane for airborne drills during maneuvers in Crimea on April 22.THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Canada is considering bolstering its military mission to Ukraine, amid a debate over whether additional NATO forces would deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from further aggression against his country’s neighbour.
Two sources with knowledge of the deliberations told The Globe and Mail that newly appointed Defence Minister Anita Anand is considering deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the Canadian soldiers already in Ukraine on a training mission. Other options being looked at include moving a warship into the Black Sea, or redeploying some of the CF-18 fighter jets currently based in Romania.
Any reinforcement would be intended as a message to Mr. Putin, who has raised alarm for the second time this year by amassing troops and equipment near his country’s borders with Ukraine. Videos posted online show thousands of battlefield weapons – including tanks, armoured personnel carriers and multiple-launch rocket systems – being moved toward Ukraine from their regular bases in other parts of Russia.
By some estimates, there are now just shy of 100,000 Russian soldiers within a short drive of Ukraine – a country Mr. Putin has never seen as a fully sovereign state, and one he is determined to keep from joining the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
How to respond to Russia’s renewed pressure on Ukraine looms as Ms. Anand’s first major international test since she was appointed Defence Minister last month, replacing Harjit Sajjan. She and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must calibrate whether a further Canadian show of support for Ukraine would help dissuade Mr. Putin – or push him to take action.
The Russian leader, who has warned for more than a decade against any move to invite Ukraine into NATO, recently upped the ante by declaring that any expansion of existing NATO infrastructure in Ukraine would also cross a “red line” and provoke an unspecified response from Russia.
Explainer: Is Russia going to invade Ukraine?
‘War is already here’: On the Russian border, Ukrainian troops wait for Putin’s big push
Canada currently has some 200 troops based in the far west of the country – more than 1,000 kilometres from the Russian border – on a mission to train their Ukrainian counterparts. The two sources, whom The Globe is not naming because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the deliberations, said no decision had yet been made about deploying additional forces, despite pleas from the Ukrainian delegation at the recent Halifax Security Forum for Canada and NATO to do more.
“It’s still status quo, as of now. There’s been no change in our posture,” Lieutenant-Commander Julie McDonald, a spokeswoman for the Canadian military, said on Wednesday. “We’re closely monitoring the situation along with our allied partners.”
While Ukraine is worried about the possibility of a large-scale invasion, others see the Russian buildup as a bargaining ploy – one backed by Mr. Putin’s proven willingness to use military force to achieve his aims.
Russian and Western defence experts agree that Mr. Putin appears to be at least giving himself the option of ordering a broader assault on Ukraine, a country that has already been partially dismembered by Russian military action. (Russia seized and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, following a pro-Western revolution in Kyiv. A Russian-backed militia has also controlled large parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions since that time, battling the Ukrainian army in a conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people.)
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

7m

Update: Russia says nuclear readiness needed amid NATO activity near borders -agencies
Russia says nuclear readiness needed amid NATO activity near borders -agencies :siren: :siren: :siren: :poop:
Reuters




1 minute read

MOSCOW, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Russia's nuclear capabilities and armed forces need to maintain combat readiness in light of the increased activity of NATO countries near Russia's borders, Russian news agencies cited Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying on Wednesday.
 

Techwreck

Senior Member

Marthanoir

TB Fanatic
I wonder (fear?) if Russia is coordinating with China for China to attack Tiawan simultaneous with Russia attacking Ukraine. If the US & other alliances choose to honor their treaties with Tiawan and Ukraine, we'll be in the midst of WWIII. Then the geniuses in DC will realize even our military can't function w/o being supplied by China. Neither party has ever given more than lip service to "buying American" or to our ability to function using our own resources and capacities. A big part of winning WWII was our ability to meet the logistical needs of our military and that of our allies. We couldn't do the same today.
It might go further than that.

South Korea scrambles planes to respond to Russian and Chinese aircraft

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected seven Russian and two Chinese military aircraft.
November 19 2021 03:56 PM

 

MountainBiker

Veteran Member
It might go further than that.

South Korea scrambles planes to respond to Russian and Chinese aircraft

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected seven Russian and two Chinese military aircraft.
November 19 2021 03:56 PM

Western society is so used to conflicts between 2nd & 3rd tier countries that pose little risk to ourselves that the "can't happen here" mindset is deeply entrenched. This applies even when one of the big 3 (US-Russia-China) is in the background providing support or even active participation. Everything changes the minute it becomes the US vs China and/or Russia, and that is the possibility with the Tiawan and Ukraine scenarios. Americans in particular do not have any living memory of the real effects of war which is probably why the political class (of both parties) and their globalist masters have been able to so easily gut the ability of the US to fight a war using its own resources and capacities. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know allowing your enemy to control your supply lines is not a winning strategy, yet here we are.
 

Samuel Adams

Veteran Member
There will be no invasion.

It IS all a psyop.


Any idiot knows that, at the prescribed time, Putin will ceremoniously climb a-top a tank turret, stand there for appropriate pause, raise his gaze and his scepter skyward, utter a few words known only to him and God......and the entire Ukraine military (masculine portion) as well as all NATO military who may have been foolishly looking on (reference Ark of the Covenant scene, “Raiders of the Lost”, and all that......) again, only the masculine portion, will be rendered to liquid mush.

The Ukrainian and NATO military women will all immediately increase tenfold in beauty and godly feminine submission. All Russian and Ukrainian silver will turn to gold.....copper to silver, and so on; Ukrainian soil will increase by five times in fertility; Ukraine seaport capacity will expand immensely and all (save Ukrainian military, masculine portion, NATO military—in proximity and the entirety of the current US population) will live happily, happily, happily ever-after.



Duh
 

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
There will be no invasion.

It IS all a psyop.


Any idiot knows that, at the prescribed time, Putin will ceremoniously climb a-top a tank turret, stand there for appropriate pause, raise his gaze and his scepter skyward, utter a few words known only to him and God......and the entire Ukraine military (masculine portion) as well as all NATO military who may have been foolishly looking on (reference Ark of the Covenant scene, “Raiders of the Lost”, and all that......) again, only the masculine portion, will be rendered to liquid mush.

The Ukrainian and NATO military women will all immediately increase tenfold in beauty and godly feminine submission. All Russian and Ukrainian silver will turn to gold.....copper to silver, and so on; Ukrainian soil will increase by five times in fertility; Ukraine seaport capacity will expand immensely and all (save Ukrainian military, masculine portion, NATO military—in proximity and the entirety of the current US population) will live happily, happily, happily ever-after.



Duh
Whatever you had for breakfast, I'll take some too please! lol
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
The actions of Putin and Russia will be a study for generations. Putin and Russia have to operate under pressure from US/EU/NATO dominance. To understand what will come, look at their actions in Syria. Also for perspective, it would be advisable to read how nations dealt Rome at it height.

Russia would be foolish to attack, they gain very little and Putin knows this. I'm chalking this up to Sabre rattling.
 

Samuel Adams

Veteran Member
The actions of Putin and Russia will be a study for generations. Putin and Russia have to operate under pressure from US/EU/NATO dominance. To understand what will come, look at their actions in Syria. Also for perspective, it would be advisable to read how nations dealt Rome at it height.

Russia would be foolish to attack, they gain very little and Putin knows this. I'm chalking this up to Sabre rattling.
You dare to blaspheme the Putin ?

:popcorn3:
 
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hoss

Out to lunch
The actions of Putin and Russia will be a study for generations. Putin and Russia have to operate under pressure from US/EU/NATO dominance. To understand what will come, look at their actions in Syria. Also for perspective, it would be advisable to read how nations dealt Rome at it height.

Russia would be foolish to attack, they gain very little and Putin knows this. I'm chalking this up to Sabre rattling.
My take is that he will use a so-called provocation to take more area around Crimea. Just another marginal land grab to augment what he did a few years ago. The world will blink -- again. No WWIII. And Putin will continue on his merry way.......
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

Russia Launches Classified Military Satellite
Last week, the United States denounced Russia for conducting a “dangerous and irresponsible” space missile test.
STAFF WRITER WITH AFP NOVEMBER 25, 2021

Russia on Thursday successfully placed into orbit a military satellite believed to be part of the Kremlin’s early warning anti-missile system.

A Soyuz rocket carrying a classified payload blasted off from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in northern Russia in the early hours of Thursday morning, the defense ministry said.

At 0109 GMT a rocket was launched that put a “space apparatus into orbit in the interests of the defense ministry,” the ministry said in a statement carried by the Interfax news agency.

It did not provide further details.

According to the Spaceflightnow website, which covers space launches, the launch could be delivering a Tundra satellite.

Russia has previously launched Tundra satellites in 2015, 2017, and 2019, according to Interfax.

Specialist website Russian Space Web said the ground track of Thursday’s launch “matched previous missions” delivering satellites for Russia’s missile warning system named Kupol or dome.

Unveiled in 2019, Kupol is designed to detect launches of ballistic missiles and track them to their landing site, though its exact configuration is unknown.

In 2018, the US, which suspects Russia of seeking to develop space weapons, said something alarmed it at the “very abnormal behaviour” of a Russian satellite. Moscow dismissed what it called “unfounded allegations.”

Last week, Russia faced an international backlash after its military destroyed a satellite creating a cloud of space debris that forced the crew on the International Space Station to take shelter.
 

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
Prepare for shock and awe

I bet Russia takes everything east of the Dniepre and Crimea up to near Odessa - and maybe that. And if NATO decides to play, Russia will take all of Ukraine, part of Poland, and seriously threaten the Baltics.
Before January...
It is my belief that this is a feint and Russia will go for the Baltic states first. They negotiate over Ukraine, but the Baltic ports would be more strategic. Belarus borders the Baltic’s, and NATO would be forced more than likely to consider tactical nukes, which I do not believe NATO would use. Just my amateur opinion!
 
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