ALERT russian troops headed to the border of ukraine

jward

passin' thru
I think we're all, all nationalities, being used as a bunch of pawns and expendable resources by "our betters" :: spit with white hot anger and blood in eye :: No, their war, for their purses to get fat and their objectives met is worth no ones blood.
..A war to deal them their just dues, now that's worth something worth bleeding, and dying, over imo.

I don't like any of this. How does the board feel? Poland is worth fighting for, but UKR? I just don't feel like we have enough cultural connection to go all out for them.
 

danielboon

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I think we're all, all nationalities, being used as a bunch of pawns and expendable resources by "our betters" :: spit with white hot anger and blood in eye :: No, their war, for their purses to get fat and their objectives met is worth no ones blood.
..A war to deal them their just dues, now that's worth something worth bleeding, and dying, over imo.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyQuPILrBCk
33sec
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Russia is really piling on the rhetoric these past few days. Troops from that recent exercise in Belarus are still there; and the Belarus/Polish immigrant spat is still rockin' and rollin'.

There's a lot of pieces in play over there all of a sudden. The nordstream 2 pipeline is on hold because of the Germans, the Belarus/Poland spat, etc. Reminds me of reading about events in Europe sometime back-say, late August, 1939?
 

MountainBiker

Veteran Member
I wonder (fear?) if Russia is coordinating with China for China to attack Tiawan simultaneous with Russia attacking Ukraine. If the US & other alliances choose to honor their treaties with Tiawan and Ukraine, we'll be in the midst of WWIII. Then the geniuses in DC will realize even our military can't function w/o being supplied by China. Neither party has ever given more than lip service to "buying American" or to our ability to function using our own resources and capacities. A big part of winning WWII was our ability to meet the logistical needs of our military and that of our allies. We couldn't do the same today.
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
well, it is rainy and damp here all the past several days, and probably in the west of the country too, so i'd give any possible invasion a while yet. ground not frozen.

if putin pulls the switch it has to be in january.

but what a huge decision to make. not guaranteed, but probable. i 'd give it 75/25.
 

TFergeson

Senior Member
well, it is rainy and damp here all the past several days, and probably in the west of the country too, so i'd give any possible invasion a while yet. ground not frozen.

if putin pulls the switch it has to be in january.

but what a huge decision to make. not guaranteed, but probable. i 'd give it 75/25.
Oreally,

How necessary a requirement is the frozen ground?
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Did all y'all miss the logistics magic that the sovs did last spring when they let everyone watch them move literal tonnes of armor and even MORE tonnes of food and ammo into the areas at the UKR border?

They brought enough supplies to handle at least a couple of months of sustainment, twice that if they leaned things down, or brought a basic load out with them now.

Going to be an interesting winter. Followed by a more than fascinating Spring in the US.
 

John Deere Girl

Veteran Member
well, it is rainy and damp here all the past several days, and probably in the west of the country too, so i'd give any possible invasion a while yet. ground not frozen.

if putin pulls the switch it has to be in january.

but what a huge decision to make. not guaranteed, but probable. i 'd give it 75/25.
Thank you for sharing your perspective!
 

TFergeson

Senior Member
Mr. Fergeson, do ya know any Armor guys?

The frozen ground will be instrumental in their advance plans.
I do, and I know frozen ground would make things easier, but I find myself wondering if there are not ways around that which could be utilized. I am concerned that people may be a little too fixated on the firmness level of Ukrainian Terra. Putin knows that we know and have assessed that he'll likely wait until the ground freezes. Best chance best choice and all that. Ukraine estimates he'll invade Jan-Feb. NATO estimates that Jan- Feb is go time. Our intel agencies say Jan-ish, and Putin is even scheduling meetings to discuss the situation in Jan-Feb. So Perfect! The group is in agreement. Putin will invade as scheduled in Jan.

Except that line of thinking bothers me. When tensions are high and everyone is in agreement, and everything seems to be falling into place I get concerned. Look at D-Day. The Yom Kippur War. Desert Storm. They all had something in common before go time.
 

Grumphau

Senior Member
I do, and I know frozen ground would make things easier, but I find myself wondering if there are not ways around that which could be utilized. I am concerned that people may be a little too fixated on the firmness level of Ukrainian Terra. Putin knows that we know and have assessed that he'll likely wait until the ground freezes. Best chance best choice and all that. Ukraine estimates he'll invade Jan-Feb. NATO estimates that Jan- Feb is go time. Our intel agencies say Jan-ish, and Putin is even scheduling meetings to discuss the situation in Jan-Feb. So Perfect! The group is in agreement. Putin will invade as scheduled in Jan.

Except that line of thinking bothers me. When tensions are high and everyone is in agreement, and everything seems to be falling into place I get concerned. Look at D-Day. The Yom Kippur War. Desert Storm. They all had something in common before go time.
Yes, it would be better to attack at an unexpected time, especially if the Russian forces are prepared to deal with the weather.

I was thinking now- we are focused on armored vehicles which are important. But, what if the worst fighting in muddy areas can be avoided with helicopters? This isn't World War 2 after all, and militaries aren't tied to the ground like they used to be in the "last war".
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
I do, and I know frozen ground would make things easier, but I find myself wondering if there are not ways around that which could be utilized. I am concerned that people may be a little too fixated on the firmness level of Ukrainian Terra. Putin knows that we know and have assessed that he'll likely wait until the ground freezes. Best chance best choice and all that. Ukraine estimates he'll invade Jan-Feb. NATO estimates that Jan- Feb is go time. Our intel agencies say Jan-ish, and Putin is even scheduling meetings to discuss the situation in Jan-Feb. So Perfect! The group is in agreement. Putin will invade as scheduled in Jan.

Except that line of thinking bothers me. When tensions are high and everyone is in agreement, and everything seems to be falling into place I get concerned. Look at D-Day. The Yom Kippur War. Desert Storm. They all had something in common before go time.
A hard freeze would be useful but not essential considering the existing road network.

Russia has already clearly stated that the first round would be remote strikes against Ukraine from Russian missile and aviation assets.

NATO does not currently have enough forces on the ground in and near Ukraine. Any NATO air assets deployed against the Russian homeland would encounter a furious response from Moscow.

Russian forces are already established in the Donbass and there is little NATO can do to change that.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Wow, everybody is buying into the little ole poor Ukraine meme here. Look at this link and give me the pity party for the Ukraine one more time. We gave them Javelin anti tank missiles, state of the art for NATO, and they are pounding Russia with them, not Russia pounding them.

I was in a line combat armor battalion assigned to the 8th Infantry Division in Baumholder, Germany. This idea that armor can ONLY move on frozen ground is simply misguided. Frozen ground is easier for armor to move around on, as well as other tracked platforms, but it is not essential. You just spread out some more, keep the tracks off of the same ground repeatedly and you are okay. You can also do things with laid down plating, like that WW 2 grating they used for airports on Guadalcanal etc. Further, Russia isn't going to "Invade" Ukraine. they are going to pound it from a distance, send in enough mechanized stuff to secure a combat perimeter for their ethnic people now being MASSARED by the "innocent" Ukrainians, that is when they aren't raping women and murdering children, and yeah the whore west media kept all of that off the screen. What do you think the Ukrainian "military," the far right units that composed it when they went into those Russian enclaves? And why do you think Putin is so pissed off, when the USA is dumping BILLIONS of $ worth of military equipment to neo nazi warmongers. But what the hell, all of you sitting there with the "Putin can't invade till January," are going to be ass kicked when he goes in the next few days/weeks.

I quoted Sun Tzu in one of my posts: basically do what they don't expect you to do, where they don't expect you to do it, and WHEN they don't expect you do it.

Game One. And Milley is a F#%%%% TRAITOR AND MURDERER WHO LEFT THOUSANDS OF AMERCIANS TO DIE IN AFGHANISTAN. F$%%^ this woke American military. OF course China and Russia are coordinating. Haven't you watched the MULTIPLE joint combat training operations they have been doing the last 6 months or so? Why are they doing that.

GAME ON. CLEARED HOT. WAR IS IMMINENT AND INEVITABLE.

We have no business in the Ukraine, AT ALL. And we will get our asses kicked. Count on it.

Again, we did fall training in our tracked vehicles in Germany back in the day, so enough of this can't drive a tank till January/February.


Ukrainian Troops Have Been Firing American-Made Javelin Missiles At Russian-Backed Forces
The disclosure that Ukrainian troops have been employing Javelin missiles in combat comes as fears grow that Russian could launch a new invasion.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK NOVEMBER 22, 2021



The head of Ukraine's top military intelligence agency has confirmed, for what appears to be the first time, that Ukrainian troops in the country's eastern Donbass region have fired American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles at Russian or Russian-supported forces. These missiles, along with other advanced weapons that the Ukrainian military has acquired in recent years, such as Turkish Bayraktar TB2 armed drones, would be important factors in the outcome of any future major military confrontation with Russia. Fears are growing that the Kremlin could at least be prepared to launch a new, large-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as early as January.


Ukrainian Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov talked about the operational use of Javelins as part of a recent interview with Military Times, which he conducted through an interpreter. Budanov, who runs the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, also known by its Ukrainian acronym GUR MOU, used the opportunity to call for more help from the U.S. government as he sounded like the alarm about the Kremlin's unusual deployments of large numbers of military units to areas opposite Russia's borders with Ukraine in recent weeks.


“We need more [military assistance]. No countries except Ukraine have open war with Russia. And we have for seven years," Budanov told Military Times. "That’s why we’re sure the U.S. should give us everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this. Because after, it could be very late.”
In 2014, Russia seized and then annexed Ukraine's Crimea region, an overt operation that was preceded by the covert deployment of special operations units and conventional troops, who were dubbed "little green men" on account of their unmarked green camouflage uniforms. That same year, the Kremlin sent additional forces into the Donbass to directly support ostensibly local "separatists," groups that have since been shown to have strong ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Heavy armor and artillery have been important features of this conflict, which has been ongoing ever since.





UKRAINE CLEARED TO MOVE JAVELIN MISSILES TO FRONT LINES TO BLOW UP RUSSIAN TANKS "DEFENSIVELY"By Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIA SAYS IT IS DRAWING DOWN FORCES NEAR UKRAINE BUT WE KNOW NOT EVERYONE IS GOING HOMEBy Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIAN GUNBOATS HEAD TO THE BLACK SEA TO JOIN MILITARY BUILDUP NEAR UKRAINEBy Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIAN ARMOR FLOODS TOWARD BORDER WITH UKRAINE AMID FEARS OF AN "IMMINENT CRISIS"By Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
IT LOOKS LIKE JAVELIN ANTI-TANK MISSILES ARE HEADED TO BATTLEFIELD UKRAINEBy Tyler RogowayPosted in THE WAR ZONE

The U.S. government's decision to approve the sale of Javelins to Ukraine in 2018 was a major shift in policy and was seen as a clear attempt to bolster Ukraine's ability to challenge any new Russian-supported offensive. The Javelin is a very capable man-portable guided anti-tank missile that can either be fired straight at a target or via a pop-up maneuver, after which it dives down onto the target. This latter mode of operation is valuable for engaging tanks and other armored vehicles, which typically have more limited armor protection on top, as well as various targets situated behind hard cover. The reusable Command Launch Unit (CLU) has a thermal imaging system with 12x magnification, giving the complete weapon a secondary surveillance capability, as well. Javelins also have a limited ability to engage low-flying helicopters.
 

jward

passin' thru
Russia Won’t Let Ukraine Go Without a Fight
Moscow Threatens War to Reverse Kyiv’s Pro-Western Drift
By Michael Kimmage and Michael Kofman
November 22, 2021


Russian soldiers boarding a transport plane, Kaliningrad, Russia, September 2021
Vitaly Nevar / Reuters

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Ominous signs indicate that Russia may conduct a military offensive in Ukraine as early as the coming winter. Moscow has quietly built up its forces along the Ukrainian border over the past several months, which could be a prelude to a military operation that aims to resolve the political deadlock in Ukraine in its favor. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin may once again be engaging in coercive diplomacy, this time around Moscow may not be bluffing. If no agreement is reached, the conflict may renew on a much larger scale.
Why would Putin risk geopolitical and economic upheaval by reigniting the military confrontation with Ukraine? After all, he has good reason to be invested in the regional status quo. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, walking away with one of the largest land grabs in Europe since World War II. Western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion have not bitten particularly hard, and Russia’s macroeconomic situation is stable. Russia also retains a firm hold on the European energy market: the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will cement German dependence on Russian natural gas, marches toward activation despite legal snags. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia are in the midst of strategic stability talks. Putin met with U.S. President Joe Biden in June as part of the effort to build a more predictable relationship between the countries.
Below the surface, however, Russia and Ukraine are on the trajectory toward renewal of this unresolved conflict, which may redraw the map of Europe once more and upend Washington’s efforts at stabilizing its relationship with Russia. Year by year, Moscow has been losing political influence in Ukraine. The government in Kyiv took a strong stance on Russian demands last year, indicating it would not compromise for the sake of working with Putin. European nations appear to have backed Ukraine’s position, and Kyiv has simultaneously expanded its security cooperation with Russia’s American and European rivals.
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As Moscow has been growing more confident politically and economically, Washington’s shift of attention and resources to its competition with China may have convinced Putin that Ukraine is now a peripheral interest for the United States. Russian leaders have signaled that they have grown tired of diplomacy and find Ukraine’s growing integration with the United States and NATO intolerable. The stage is set for Moscow to reset this equation through force—unless Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv are able to find a peaceful resolution.

PREPARING FOR WAR

Russia’s force posture does not suggest that invasion is imminent. Quite possibly, no political decision to launch a military operation has been made. That said, Russian military activity in recent months is well outside the normal training cycle. Units from thousands of miles have deployed to the Western Military District, which borders Ukraine. Armies from the Caucasus have sent units into Crimea. These are not routine training activities but rather an effort to preposition units and equipment for potential military action. Furthermore, many of the units appear to be moving at night to avoid closer scrutiny, unlike the previous buildup in March and April.


The scenario of a wider war is entirely plausible. Should it come to pass, Putin’s choice to expand a simmering conflict will not be impulsive. The legacy of the 2014 Ukraine crisis remains more conducive to escalation than to the freezing of this conflict into an uneasy peace.


What has changed over the past year? First, Russian strategy in Ukraine has not yielded a political solution that Moscow can accept. After a 2018 campaign that suggested some openness to dialogue, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hard turn away from seeking a compromise with Russia a year ago eliminated any hope that Moscow can achieve its objectives through diplomatic engagement. Moscow sees no path out from Western sanctions, and talks between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France aimed at resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine are going nowhere. As these political and diplomatic efforts flounder, Moscow knows that previous efforts to use force have paid dividends.


At the same time, Ukraine is expanding its partnerships with the United States, the United Kingdom, and other NATO states. The United States has provided lethal military assistance, and NATO is helping to train the Ukrainian military. These ties are a thorn in Moscow’s side, and Russia has slowly shifted from considering Ukraine’s membership in NATO as a redline to opposing the growing structural Ukrainian defense cooperation with its Western adversaries. From the Kremlin’s point of view, if Ukrainian territory is to become an instrument against Russia in the service of the United States, and the Russian military retains the ability to do something about it, then the use of force is a more than viable option.




Russia may have leverage over Europe, owing to surging gas prices.



Zelensky’s administration also appears weak and increasingly desperate to find domestic support. He has not done much to reduce corruption or to separate Ukraine from its long tradition of oligarchic rule. His October 2021 approval rating, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, stands at 24.7 percent. Russian officials have made clear that they see no point in negotiating with Zelensky and have spent the year actively delegitimizing his administration. If Moscow has dispensed with even the pretense of diplomatic engagement, this suggests that the use of force is growing ever more likely.


Russia’s domestic position and broader geopolitical developments are no less important. Putin’s regime appears secure and the opposition is heavily repressed. Moscow has rebuilt its financial position since the onset of Western sanctions in 2014 and currently has some $620 billion in foreign currency reserves. Russia also may have considerable leverage over Europe this year, owing to surging gas prices and energy supply shortages. Meanwhile, Europe has been mired in handwringing after the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and is still struggling to define its goal of “strategic autonomy.” The Biden administration is focused on China, signaling that Russia is lower on the agenda and Europe is not a top policy priority. Ukraine thus represents a secondary interest within a secondary theater.


Over the course of the past year, the Russian leadership has used stark rhetoric, drawing attention to its redlines in Ukraine. Moscow does not believe that the United States has been taking it seriously. In October 2021, Putin noted that although Ukraine may not formally be granted membership into NATO, “military development of the territory is already underway. And this really poses a threat to Russia.”


It is doubtful that these are empty words. Russian leadership sees no prospect for a diplomatic resolution and thinks Ukraine is slipping into the U.S. security orbit. It may for this reason see war as inevitable. Russian leaders do not believe using force would be easy or cost free—but they perceive that Ukraine is on an unacceptable trajectory and that they have few options to salvage their preexisting policy. They may also have concluded that resorting to military options will be less costly now than it will be in the future.

DEADLOCKED DIPLOMACY

Russia won a peculiar victory during its 2014–15 military offensive in Ukraine. It forced unfavorable cease-fire agreements on Kyiv. Ukraine’s military has improved considerably since then, but so has Russia’s. The margin of Russian quantitative and qualitative superiority remains substantial. Russia’s success on the battlefield, however, did not translate into diplomatic success in 2014 or thereafter. The agreement that emerged from the war was called the Minsk Protocol, after the city in which it was negotiated. It proved to be a lose-lose settlement: Ukraine never regained its territorial sovereignty. The United States and its European allies, which avoided a potentially escalating conflict with a nuclear power, failed to compel Russia to withdraw through sanctions. And Russian influence over Ukraine—apart from the territories it either annexed or invaded—has since 2015 been steadily diminishing.


Ukraine signed an association agreement with the European Union in 2014, which brought it into the fold of European regulation. This was the very outcome Russia had been trying to prevent. Kyiv has continued to press for NATO membership, and even though it has no immediate prospect of entering the alliance, its defense cooperation with NATO members has only deepened. Although Zelensky ran on a platform of negotiations with Moscow and attempted some diplomatic engagement after taking office, he reversed course in 2020, shutting down pro-Russian TV stations and taking a hard line on Russian demands. The Zelensky administration has placed Ukraine on a path to “Euro-Atlantic integration,” the phrase that American diplomats consistently use to describe Ukraine’s strategic orientation—the road that leads away from Russia.


Although the fighting in eastern Ukraine subsided after 2016, the simmering conflict has obscured an unstable state of affairs in Europe. Russia and the United States, whose influence overlaps in eastern Europe, are set to be adversaries in what Washington now terms a “strategic competition.” But since 2014, the gap between U.S. rhetoric and action in Ukraine and elsewhere remains open to exploitation.




Putin could realistically try to divide Ukraine in two.



The Syrian conflict exposed a lack of American resolve with regard to its stated goal: “Assad must go.” Washington did not push back against a Russian military presence, allowing Moscow to expand its influence across the Middle East. The messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the dustup over the AUKUS (Australia–United Kingdom–United States) submarine deal with Australia, which left out and angered France, have revealed serious problems of coordination within the transatlantic alliance. Washington appears war weary, and Russia likely questions whether its declarations of political support for Ukraine are backed by credible resolve.


If Putin assesses U.S. officials’ support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be insincere—and there is not much to suggest otherwise—he will not be deterred from changing the regional balance of power through force. It would be foolish for him to attempt to conquer all of Ukraine, an enormous country of more than 40 million people, but it would not be unrealistic for him to try to divide the country in two or impose a new settlement that seeks to reverse Ukraine’s slide into “Euro-Atlantic integration” and security cooperation with the United States.


Moscow has long sought to revise the post–Cold War settlement. Russian leaders might imagine that rather than yielding further efforts at containment, a war on this scale would over time compel a conversation on Russia’s role in European security. Russia’s goal has long been to restore a regional order in which Russia and the West have equal say on security outcomes in Europe. It is doubtful that Putin believes he can achieve such a settlement through persuasion or conventional diplomacy. Russian military action could scare leading European states—some of whom see themselves relegated to a secondary place in U.S. strategy and wish to position themselves between China and the United States—into accepting a new arrangement with Moscow. This is not to say that such an outcome is likely, but it may be the possibility on which Russian leaders are focusing.

FINDING STABILITY IN CONFLICT

The United States should draw two conclusions from Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine. The first is that this is not likely to be merely another coercive display, despite mixed messaging from Moscow. “Our recent warnings have been noticed and are having an effect,” Putin declared on November 18. One day earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry published private letters from France and Germany on diplomacy related to Ukraine, an insult to Russia’s Minsk partners. The key to Washington’s response will be to prepare for the possibility that a war could unfold in 2022, to conduct anticipatory coordination with European allies, and to make clear the consequences of such action to Moscow. By acting now, the United States can work with its European partners to raise the economic and political costs for Russia of military action, possibly decreasing the likelihood of war.


The failure to develop a coordinated response to Russian aggression has previously cost Ukraine dearly. In 2014, it was not until Russian-backed separatists shot down a civilian passenger jet in July—long after the Russian annexation of Crimea and invasion of the Donbas region—that Europe got onboard with sanctions. The United States must avoid that ruinous precedent of piecemeal and reactive policymaking this time around. While Washington may wish to preserve certain covert options, it should publicly describe the basic outlines of its support for Ukrainian sovereignty in tandem with its European allies, and well before the outbreak of major military conflict. That would require a detailed articulation of Western resolve and Western redlines in the next few weeks. The humanitarian and strategic magnitude of a large-scale Russian invasion calls for nothing less.


Although on November 18 Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland characterized the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as “ironclad,” the language of treaty allies, the United States extends no formal security commitments to Ukraine. Such statements are eerily reminiscent of political support signaled to Georgia in the run-up to the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. Not only is Russia unlikely to be deterred by diplomatic terms of art that lack credibility, it will try to injure the United States’ reputation when Washington appears so overextended. The United States must act, but it should take care not to mislead Ukrainian leadership into expecting support that will not materialize. If the White House does not see a military role for itself in Ukraine, as was the case in 2014, it should tell this privately and candidly to Kyiv so that Ukraine’s leaders can operate with a full awareness of the geopolitical reality.


Secondly, whether or not a war breaks out in Ukraine in the coming months, the United States and its European allies need to be more honest about the current diplomatic cul-de-sac in which they find themselves. Russia is not in a geopolitical retreat, and Ukraine is unlikely to yield. A continued contest for influence in Ukraine is unavoidable and will get worse before it gets better. However, that does not preclude the search for a diplomatic solution that reduces the risk of the rivalry spiraling out of control.


Ukraine is at the center of that solution, and these conversations must reflect Ukrainian agency. But paradoxically, it is not Ukraine but Washington that has been visibly absent from the diplomatic process. The ongoing conflict is the single most important source of instability between Russia and the United States—Washington needs to tackle it head on. The search for strategic stability will struggle to coexist with conflict. But as competition between the world’s two major nuclear powers intensifies, it is not a luxury or a mirage. It is a necessity.

 

CELLO

Senior Member
I gotta go with what Doomer Doug is saying here. It would make no sense for Putin to wait until the ground is hard in January, when everyone expects an attack then. I think that they may attack much sooner using air and space assets.
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
i was thinking about this disposition on my way to pick up maybe a last big vitamin order..

taking the country up to kyiv is very problematic for the integrity of ukraine, since both airports that service the city are on the other side of the Dnieper river, and without them getting help from anyone is out of the question.

which means that my city would become the de facto capital (crap) for historical and tactical reasons..

taking odessa is really bad , because it is the major port, and we get lots of fresh fruits from all over, like mexico, and coffee and all sorts of imports through there. plus tons of fresh fish which is a big staple. 1/2 the population there are 'russian speakers' (as it explained to me) who don't necessarily hold the same animosity towards the Russians that Ukraine people do.

and if putin does pull this switch, he has to consider, that oftentimes---more often than not- the guy who starts a war, does not see it turn out the way it was forecasted.

same for xi, if they are working a tag team operation.
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
i was thinking about this disposition on my way to pick up maybe a last big vitamin order..

taking the country up to kyiv is very problematic for the integrity of ukraine, since both airports that service the city are on the other side of the Dnieper river, and without them getting help from anyone is out of the question.

which means that my city would become the de facto capital (crap) for historical and tactical reasons..

taking odessa is really bad , because it is the major port, and we get lots of fresh fruits from all over, like mexico, and coffee and all sorts of imports through there. plus tons of fresh fish which is a big staple. 1/2 the population there are 'russian speakers' (as it explained to me) who don't necessarily hold the same animosity towards the Russians that Ukraine people do.

and if putin does pull this switch, he has to consider, that oftentimes---more often than not- the guy who starts a war, does not see it turn out the way it was forecasted.

same for xi, if they are working a tag team operation.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
i was thinking about this disposition on my way to pick up maybe a last big vitamin order..

taking the country up to kyiv is very problematic for the integrity of ukraine, since both airports that service the city are on the other side of the Dnieper river, and without them getting help from anyone is out of the question.

which means that my city would become the de facto capital (crap) for historical and tactical reasons..

taking odessa is really bad , because it is the major port, and we get lots of fresh fruits from all over, like mexico, and coffee and all sorts of imports through there. plus tons of fresh fish which is a big staple. 1/2 the population there are 'russian speakers' (as it explained to me) who don't necessarily hold the same animosity towards the Russians that Ukraine people do.

and if putin does pull this switch, he has to consider, that oftentimes---more often than not- the guy who starts a war, does not see it turn out the way it was forecasted.

same for xi, if they are working a tag team operation.
If you get a chance, and you haven't done this already, look at getting a bunch of dried split peas and/or lentils and of course beans. The advantage of the dried split peas is they probably are pretty common where you are, though these days lentils and things like pinto beans may be too.

We have stored peas and lentils in water or coke bottles (cleaned and completely dry of course) they can also be put in plastic bags and thrown in the "side table" to the sofa that is really steel garbage can with a lid on it covered with a pretty piece of fabric (how to hide stuff in a small apartment).

The peas, lentils, or beans will last for years, and the first two don't need presoaking to cook either. Add potatoes and carrots for a nice mix, also white rice if you have room to store some.

Good luck! And thank you for all the "on the ground" posts.
 

jward

passin' thru





marqs
@MarQs__

15m

BREAKING: #Russia|n-controlled forces in Donbass raise combat readiness, have carried out large-scale exercises - intelligence directorate of #Ukraine's defence ministry
"#DPR and #LPR started large-scale command and staff training with a mobilization of reserve soldiers, units of power structures and administrations under the leadership of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation"
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
If you get a chance, and you haven't done this already, look at getting a bunch of dried split peas and/or lentils and of course beans. The advantage of the dried split peas is they probably are pretty common where you are, though these days lentils and things like pinto beans may be too.

We have stored peas and lentils in water or coke bottles (cleaned and completely dry of course) they can also be put in plastic bags and thrown in the "side table" to the sofa that is really steel garbage can with a lid on it covered with a pretty piece of fabric (how to hide stuff in a small apartment).

The peas, lentils, or beans will last for years, and the first two don't need presoaking to cook either. Add potatoes and carrots for a nice mix, also white rice if you have room to store some.

Good luck! And thank you for all the "on the ground" posts.
i was really surprised that i can't find red kidney beans, to make Mexican with anywhere in town. there was one or two old ladies selling bags of them on the streets, but not in any store, even organic places. weird.
 

TFergeson

Senior Member
Wow, everybody is buying into the little ole poor Ukraine meme here. Look at this link and give me the pity party for the Ukraine one more time. We gave them Javelin anti tank missiles, state of the art for NATO, and they are pounding Russia with them, not Russia pounding them.

I was in a line combat armor battalion assigned to the 8th Infantry Division in Baumholder, Germany. This idea that armor can ONLY move on frozen ground is simply misguided. Frozen ground is easier for armor to move around on, as well as other tracked platforms, but it is not essential. You just spread out some more, keep the tracks off of the same ground repeatedly and you are okay. You can also do things with laid down plating, like that WW 2 grating they used for airports on Guadalcanal etc. Further, Russia isn't going to "Invade" Ukraine. they are going to pound it from a distance, send in enough mechanized stuff to secure a combat perimeter for their ethnic people now being MASSARED by the "innocent" Ukrainians, that is when they aren't raping women and murdering children, and yeah the whore west media kept all of that off the screen. What do you think the Ukrainian "military," the far right units that composed it when they went into those Russian enclaves? And why do you think Putin is so pissed off, when the USA is dumping BILLIONS of $ worth of military equipment to neo nazi warmongers. But what the hell, all of you sitting there with the "Putin can't invade till January," are going to be ass kicked when he goes in the next few days/weeks.

I quoted Sun Tzu in one of my posts: basically do what they don't expect you to do, where they don't expect you to do it, and WHEN they don't expect you do it.

Game One. And Milley is a F#%%%% TRAITOR AND MURDERER WHO LEFT THOUSANDS OF AMERCIANS TO DIE IN AFGHANISTAN. F$%%^ this woke American military. OF course China and Russia are coordinating. Haven't you watched the MULTIPLE joint combat training operations they have been doing the last 6 months or so? Why are they doing that.

GAME ON. CLEARED HOT. WAR IS IMMINENT AND INEVITABLE.

We have no business in the Ukraine, AT ALL. And we will get our asses kicked. Count on it.

Again, we did fall training in our tracked vehicles in Germany back in the day, so enough of this can't drive a tank till January/February.


Ukrainian Troops Have Been Firing American-Made Javelin Missiles At Russian-Backed Forces
The disclosure that Ukrainian troops have been employing Javelin missiles in combat comes as fears grow that Russian could launch a new invasion.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK NOVEMBER 22, 2021



The head of Ukraine's top military intelligence agency has confirmed, for what appears to be the first time, that Ukrainian troops in the country's eastern Donbass region have fired American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles at Russian or Russian-supported forces. These missiles, along with other advanced weapons that the Ukrainian military has acquired in recent years, such as Turkish Bayraktar TB2 armed drones, would be important factors in the outcome of any future major military confrontation with Russia. Fears are growing that the Kremlin could at least be prepared to launch a new, large-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as early as January.


Ukrainian Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov talked about the operational use of Javelins as part of a recent interview with Military Times, which he conducted through an interpreter. Budanov, who runs the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, also known by its Ukrainian acronym GUR MOU, used the opportunity to call for more help from the U.S. government as he sounded like the alarm about the Kremlin's unusual deployments of large numbers of military units to areas opposite Russia's borders with Ukraine in recent weeks.


“We need more [military assistance]. No countries except Ukraine have open war with Russia. And we have for seven years," Budanov told Military Times. "That’s why we’re sure the U.S. should give us everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this. Because after, it could be very late.”
In 2014, Russia seized and then annexed Ukraine's Crimea region, an overt operation that was preceded by the covert deployment of special operations units and conventional troops, who were dubbed "little green men" on account of their unmarked green camouflage uniforms. That same year, the Kremlin sent additional forces into the Donbass to directly support ostensibly local "separatists," groups that have since been shown to have strong ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Heavy armor and artillery have been important features of this conflict, which has been ongoing ever since.





UKRAINE CLEARED TO MOVE JAVELIN MISSILES TO FRONT LINES TO BLOW UP RUSSIAN TANKS "DEFENSIVELY"By Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIA SAYS IT IS DRAWING DOWN FORCES NEAR UKRAINE BUT WE KNOW NOT EVERYONE IS GOING HOMEBy Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIAN GUNBOATS HEAD TO THE BLACK SEA TO JOIN MILITARY BUILDUP NEAR UKRAINEBy Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
RUSSIAN ARMOR FLOODS TOWARD BORDER WITH UKRAINE AMID FEARS OF AN "IMMINENT CRISIS"By Joseph TrevithickPosted in THE WAR ZONE
IT LOOKS LIKE JAVELIN ANTI-TANK MISSILES ARE HEADED TO BATTLEFIELD UKRAINEBy Tyler RogowayPosted in THE WAR ZONE

The U.S. government's decision to approve the sale of Javelins to Ukraine in 2018 was a major shift in policy and was seen as a clear attempt to bolster Ukraine's ability to challenge any new Russian-supported offensive. The Javelin is a very capable man-portable guided anti-tank missile that can either be fired straight at a target or via a pop-up maneuver, after which it dives down onto the target. This latter mode of operation is valuable for engaging tanks and other armored vehicles, which typically have more limited armor protection on top, as well as various targets situated behind hard cover. The reusable Command Launch Unit (CLU) has a thermal imaging system with 12x magnification, giving the complete weapon a secondary surveillance capability, as well. Javelins also have a limited ability to engage low-flying helicopters.
I concur DD. You get it.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
i was really surprised that i can't find red kidney beans, to make Mexican with anywhere in town. there were one or two old ladies selling bags of them on the streets, but not in any store, even organic places. weird.
Try the health food shops if there are any for years it was the only place to get them in Ireland - also if there are any Indian/Asian/Chinese shops they may have them as well. I don't know the size of your town, but again that's where they were in Ireland for ages (also big bags of white rice and a lot of spices for Mexican cook because they are also used in Indian cooking).

Good luck, I spend a lot time bringing spices and chilies back from the USA our first few years here.
 
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