ALERT russian troops headed to the border of ukraine

jward

passin' thru

Oreally

Veteran Member
Not sure.... aerospace force. What does that mean. Yes, it could mean missiles but maybe not. What about DEWs? Is that what it means? Low yield nukes? I have a bad feeling. What about US.NATO in the Black Sea? Ukraine only or all of the Black Sea?
well, one thing they could do is disrupt the governmental communications infrastructure in the various oblasts with precision weapons.

where i am there is a very tall radio tower, about two miles from me, that dominates the city, that must be central to the regional infrastructure. also the local main telephone office has a lot of cell towers. both could be taken out easily.

this would also play to the russian narrative that ukraine is a failed d state,etc...
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
it

Apex
@Apex_WW


"An incursion is weather-dependent, but could happen in a matter of weeks, barring intervention from the West, U.S. officials briefed on the matter told CBS News." U.S. officials warn of possible Russian military incursion into Ukraine https://cbsnews.com/news/us-officials-warn-possible-russian-military-incursion-into-ukraine/
via @CBSNews
View: https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1462146647148933131?s=20
it's cold and damp. still raining. ground not frozen yet.
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Not sure.... aerospace force. What does that mean. Yes, it could mean missiles but maybe not. What about DEWs? Is that what it means? Low yield nukes? I have a bad feeling. What about US.NATO in the Black Sea? Ukraine only or all of the Black Sea?
Russia is being clever in saying they will not physically "invade" (never mind Crimea or Donetsk) other countries with Russian -ground- forces. But they are leaving the door -wide- open to attacking Ukraine with remote weapons originating from -inside- Russia.

This forces U.S./NATO/Ukraine to attack Russian forces inside of Russia's borders in response to an attack upon Ukraine.

Any military attack inside of Russia's border will result in a horrific escalation against the originator.
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wiki,

Sub-branches[edit]
According to Jane's Information Group, with the merging of the Russian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces, the new Russian Aerospace Forces consist of three sub-branches:[6]

  • Air Force
  • Air and Missile Defence Forces [ru][7]
  • Space Forces
 
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TorahTips

Veteran Member
Russia is being clever in saying they will not physically "invade" (never mind Crimea or Donetsk) other countries with Russian -ground- forces. But they are leaving the door -wide- open to attacking Ukraine with remote weapons originating from -inside- Russia.

This forces U.S./NATO/Ukraine to attack Russian forces inside of Russia's borders in response to an attack upon Ukraine.

Any military attack inside of Russia's border will result in a horrific escalation against the originator.
-------
wiki,

Sub-branches[edit]
According to Jane's Information Group, with the merging of the Russian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces, the new Russian Aerospace Forces consist of three sub-branches:[6]

  • Air Force
  • Air and Missile Defence Forces [ru][7]
  • Space Forces
Very concerning. So we have no clue what this really means. My guess is massive precision missile attacks and maybe DEWs. I have a feeling that we are about to see warfare in a totally different manner.
 

jward

passin' thru
Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief
By Howard Altman

Nov 20, 05:58 PM

Russian military armored vehicles roll into landing vessels after drills in Crimea on April 23, 2021. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.
Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.
The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

The Ukraine military's assessment of a how a potential attack by Russia would play out shows the country ringed by Russian battalion tactical groups, or BTGs. (Courtesy of Ukraine military)
Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack.
But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.

“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.
Any such attack, however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight, said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter.
“They want to foment unrest, through protests and meetings, that show the people are against the government,” he said.
Those efforts include ongoing anti-COVID-19 vaccination protests that Budanov said have been organized by Russia, which is also trying to stoke unrest related to the economy and energy supplies.

In addition, Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed “Wagnergate” — a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. The Wagner group members, who made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be brought back to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to Russia with the help of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said.
Russian psychological operations are being used to show “our authorities betrayed the people,” said Budanov.
The ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe through Poland’s border, is part of that effort, he said.

“They want to make the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a situation where we have to change the government,” said Budanov. “If they can’t do that, than military troops will do their job.”
Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.
“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said.
RELATED

Russian troop movements show wider conflict is possible, top Ukraine official says
“All available information indicates that the armed forces of Russia permanently sustain a powerful offensive grouping around Ukraine,” Roman Mashovets, deputy head of Ukraine’s Office of the President for national security and defense, told Military Times Wednesday.


By Howard Altman
The Russian embassy did not respond to a request for comment Saturday. The Pentagon on Saturday declined to comment on Budanov’s assessments about the timing and nature of any potential Russian attack, instead pointing to comments made Wednesday and Thursday by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The U.S. continues to see “troubling behavior from Russia,” Austin told reporters Wednesday.
“We are not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to,” he said. “But these movements certainly have our attention. And I would urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up to take steps to live up to the Minsk agreements.
“Our support for Ukraine sovereignty territorial integrity remains unwavering.”
After meeting with Reznikov on Thursday, Austin said the U.S. will “continue to advance our shared priority to counter Russian aggression and to deepen our cooperation in such areas as Black Sea security, cyber defense and intelligence sharing.

Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of that nation's defense intelligence agency. (Courtesy Ukraine Ministry of Defense).

Budanov said that ideally, the U.S. would help deter any Russian incursion, through additional military aid and increased diplomatic and economic pressure, including more sanctions against Russia and the seizure and blocking of Russian banking accounts.

Also, in addition to U.S. aid already promised and delivered, including Mark VI patrol boats, Javelin anti-armor systems and AN/TPQ-53 light counter-fire radar systems, Ukraine seeks additional air, missile and drone defense systems and electronic jamming devices, Budonov said. Patriot missile batteries and counter rocket, artillery and mortar systems are on Ukraine’s wish list.
The AN/TPQ-53 systems were used to great effect, Ukraine military officials have previously told Military Times. Budanov said the Javenlin systems have also been used against Russian forces. Those, along with Turkish-manufactured drones, used against Russian-aligned separatist artillery troops, have a significant psychological deterrent value, said Budanov, making Russians think twice about attacking.

Still, he said, Ukraine needs more help from America.
“I think it’s not enough for us right now,” he said of current and promised U.S. aid to Ukraine. “We need more. No countries except Ukraine have open war with Russia. And we have for seven years. That’s why we’re sure the U.S should give us everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this. Because after it could be very late.”

About Howard Altman
Howard Altman is an award-winning editor and reporter who was previously the military reporter for the Tampa Bay Times and before that the Tampa Tribune, where he covered USCENTCOM, USSOCOM and SOF writ large among many other topics.
 
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naegling62

Veteran Member
I don't like any of this. How does the board feel? Poland is worth fighting for, but UKR? I just don't feel like we have enough cultural connection to go all out for them.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
We don't have any reason to fight for ANY of them at all. It is all about globalist stooges pushing east to seal Russia in and loot it.

and Putin isn't going to wait till February. We are basing that on some Ukrainian thug "intelligence expert." And another thing, why do all these Ukrainian Generals look like they just got back from beating a Jew to death? Even the Russians don't look like thugs anywhere near as much as all these Ukrainian Generals and politicians do. Oreally, any comments? :arg:

Sun Tzu: "ATTACK HIM WHERE HE IS UNPREPARED, APPEAR WHERE YOU ARE NOT EXPECTED."

This clown has no idea what he is talking about if he thinks Putin will wait another 2 to 4 months. This "intelligence expert" thinks Putin will let Turkey build combat drones undisturbed till February? Seriously, allow the USA to flood in troops and supplies unchecked. Sheesh, virtually every single Ukrainian leader I have seen or heard the last few months are F#$%%^ MORONS.
 
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Grumphau

Senior Member
whats up with the netting? Either they dont want to give up position data (but then their is the out side photos) or they like to play army.
Thanksgiving might be the day.
Camo netting - gets them in the mood for some good wargaming.
 

jward

passin' thru
Hmm.



Dara Massicot
@MassDara


If this assessment is true— and as someone who lived this at the pentagon in 2014- Javelins, drones, pictures of pallets of bullets delivered, saying the words “ironclad”, will not stop a force like this, if it moves. The choices are now go all in, or find the off-ramp.
View: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1462267252699451397?s=20

FWIW- Because I’ve seen the horrible reality of what happens to human beings in mechanized warfare here once diplomacy fails, I am team off-ramp. I’ll be team war if called to, but… blessed be the peacemakers, find them, they are out there.






Stone
@CrierStone

17m

Replying to
@MassDara

You guys went too far this time. Not sure you can find an off ramp. My suggestion for the future with Russia and with China: take their red lines seriously. You aren’t the king anymore. Diplomacy is GIVE and take. You forgot how to give concessions. Time to remember how.
 

jward

passin' thru
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael


Good point by Rob. My view - much is contingent. The disappointing answer is it depends. The Russian mil has indeed significantly improved since 2014, retaining considerable quantitative and qualitative superiority. I’m skeptical of coercive strikes, expect ground campaign.
View: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1462234944558841867?s=20

The Ukrainian military is in a much better position as well. But if the Russian deployments and political discourse are indicative, they are threatening a significant mil operation. Hard to say, but I’m wary of the narrative that Putin is on the defensive or just bluffing.
 

Seeker22

Veteran Member
Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael


Good point by Rob. My view - much is contingent. The disappointing answer is it depends. The Russian mil has indeed significantly improved since 2014, retaining considerable quantitative and qualitative superiority. I’m skeptical of coercive strikes, expect ground campaign.
View: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1462234944558841867?s=20

The Ukrainian military is in a much better position as well. But if the Russian deployments and political discourse are indicative, they are threatening a significant mil operation. Hard to say, but I’m wary of the narrative that Putin is on the defensive or just bluffing.
Putin doesn't do defensive.
 

phloydius

Veteran Member
U.S. officials to Bloomberg have said that Russia called up tens of thousands of reservists on a scale unprecedented in post-Soviet times. This call-up has not been made public.

This is the Bloomberg article with the reference:


"The two people said that Moscow had also called up tens of thousands of reservists on a scale unprecedented in post-Soviet times. They explained the role of reservists in any conflict would be to secure territory in a later phase after the tactical battalions paved the way. Russia hasn’t publicly announced any major call-up of reservists."
 
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