ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Video from the "event" in Crimea,
-------------
Runtime 3:03

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is funded in whole or in part by the American government. Wikipedia

Speculation Swirls Around Explosions At Russian Military Base In Occupied Crimea
98,893 viewsAug 10, 2022

View: https://youtu.be/BLn9e9ust14?list=PLiE2CJKxmY0dEvF-dE1B-pBmfebnyBWqB

Latest open source satellite imagery indicates multiple Russian war planes have been damaged and destroyed in their revetments at the Crimean airbase.

1660184720965.png

1660184691365.png

1660184822572.png

1660184848057.png

View: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
He speaks for the common person all over the world for these days.



FEAR IS GROWING IN RUSSIA
611,468 views Streamed live on Aug 7, 2022 This is a story of how Russia is changing fast.

Runtime: 37:54
 

TheChrome

Contributing Member
Latest open source satellite imagery indicates multiple Russian war planes have been damaged and destroyed in their revetments at the Crimean airbase.

View attachment 356477

View attachment 356476

View attachment 356478

View attachment 356479

View: https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1557440576806608897
When I read the news reports, they say 8 Russian Jets destroyed, or up to a dozen. If you look at these two images 14 jets are clearly destroyed. (8) from (1) location, and (6) from another location. I have also read reports that helicopters were destroyed as well, but I have not seen any imagery of that.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Yesterday I think 10 warships from Taiwan cruised right next to 10 Chinese warships in the Strait of Taiwan RIGHT ON the so called line dividing the strait.

A US carrier task force is going to shoot the strait sometime over the next few days, possibly engaging Chinese naval and airforces directly.

I assume the 100,000 North Koreans are inbound to the Ukraine. The USA just had its Krystahlnacht in Florida.
It is entirely possible ARMED MILITIA maga types will show up by the thousands with their AR-15's, to defend key largo and Trump.
I have heard 3 statements from the WH the Doj and the fbi indicating they are TERRIFIED of large numbers of trumpsters with AR-15's showing up and shooting them.

PREPARE FOR WAR AS BEST YOU CAN.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
From the Irish Journal, this morning - note the most important part of this article is the last paragraph!
UN Security Council to discuss Ukraine nuclear plant crisis

The occupation of the plant by invading Russian forces has alarmed the international community.
1 hour ago 1,515 Views 3 Comments Share Tweet Email

Image: Dmytro Smolyenko
THE UN SECURITY Council will hold an emergency meeting today to address the crisis at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex, the power plant that Kyiv and Moscow accuse each other of having bombed.

A source in the Security Council presidency, currently held by China, told AFP on Wednesday that the meeting would occur on August 11 at 3:00pm (7:00pm GMT).

A second diplomatic source at United Nations headquarters in New York said the council’s 15 member nations would gather at the request of Russia, one of the five permanent members of the Security Council – along with Britain, China, France and the United States – which hold veto power over UN resolutions.

Ireland is an elected member of the Security Council, for a two-year term which began on 1 January 2021.

Bombings on Tuesday night left at least 14 people dead in southeastern Ukraine near the Zaporizhzhia power plant, the largest in Europe.

The occupation of the plant by invading Russian forces has alarmed the international community.

The G7 group of most industrialised nations warned on Wednesday that Moscow’s continued occupation of the plant “endangers the region,” and called for return of the facility to Ukrainian control.

The tensions have brought back memories of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in then-Soviet Ukraine, which killed hundreds of people and spread radioactive contamination over much of Europe.

The UN nuclear safety watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in a statement that its Director General Rafael Grossi would brief the Security Council meeting “about the nuclear safety and security situation” at the plant as well as his “efforts to agree and lead an IAEA expert mission to the site as soon as possible”.

Grossi called the situation at the complex “extremely serious”.

The IAEA said his briefing would detail how shelling at the site last week “breached virtually all the seven indispensable nuclear safety and security pillars” that Grossi outlined at the beginning of the conflict.

Short URL
 
Last edited:

Oreally

Right from the start
this event ensure the success of the Kherson offensive starting next week.


Contradicting Kremlin’s Account, Crimean Officials Detail Explosions’ Extent
Blasts at an air base in the Russian-occupied territory damaged 62 apartment buildings and forced hundreds into shelters. Satellite imagery showed destroyed fighter jets.

An artillery unit from Ukraine’s 58th Brigade fired from a frontline position near the town of Bakhmut toward advancing Russian infantry around the town of Pokrovske on Wednesday.


An artillery unit from Ukraine’s 58th Brigade fired from a frontline position near the town of Bakhmut toward advancing Russian infantry around the town of Pokrovske on Wednesday.


An artillery unit from Ukraine’s 58th Brigade fired from a frontline position near the town of Bakhmut toward advancing Russian infantry around the town of Pokrovske on Wednesday.



Published Aug. 10, 2022Updated Aug. 11, 2022, 3:15 a.m. ET

ODESA, Ukraine — After explosions tore through a Russian air base in Crimea on Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry quickly played down the extent of the damage, saying a munitions blast had left no casualties and that no equipment had been destroyed.

Videos from the scene and an assessment by local officials, who declared a state of emergency, told a very different story, with at least one person killed, more than a dozen wounded and hundreds moved into shelters. More than 60 apartment buildings were damaged, along with 20 stores and other buildings, officials said. And on the grounds of the base, after the huge plumes of smoke cleared, the remains of a warplane could be seen apparently melted into the tarmac. Satellite imagery showed craters, burn marks and at least eight destroyed fighter jets.

The images and the report by local officials on Wednesday contradicted the Kremlin’s earlier account of what had happened in Crimea, a strategic peninsula in southern Ukraine that Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and suggested that the destruction there was far greater than acknowledged.

If Ukraine’s military and partisans were responsible for the blasts, as a senior Ukrainian official said, it would represent not only an embarrassment to President Vladimir V. Putin, who often celebrates the annexation, but also a challenge to his military’s ability to defend occupied territory that it has heavily fortified for years.

It is not yet clear whether the explosions will hinder Russia’s ability to defend against a developing counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in the south. But the extensive damage to areas near the blast, along with the satellite imagery and video of the jet wreckage, suggests significant destruction to military assets that will be crucial as Russia tries to hang on to territories seized in the early days of the war.

Image
Beachgoers in Novofedorivka, in Russian-occupied Crimea, were initially startled by an explosion at a nearby Russian military air base on Tuesday.

Beachgoers in Novofedorivka, in Russian-occupied Crimea, were initially startled by an explosion at a nearby Russian military air base on Tuesday.Credit...Reuters

Beachgoers in Novofedorivka, in Russian-occupied Crimea, were initially startled by an explosion at a nearby Russian military air base on Tuesday.


The base is home to fighter aircraft and helicopters that Ukrainian officials say have been employed to deadly effect in the battle for Ukraine’s Black Sea coastal region. Ukraine’s military intelligence service has named several dozen pilots from the base it has accused of carrying out attacks on civilian areas.

Damage to the air base itself was difficult to assess on Wednesday. One video that emerged in the aftermath, verified by The New York Times, showed the charred nose cone of a fighter jet, its fuselage a black, shapeless mass.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the episode was caused by the explosion of stockpiled ordnance for warplanes at the base. The statement did not mention Ukraine or its military.

Satellite imagery, collected by the company Planet Labs and reviewed by The New York Times, challenged Russia’s account of the damage. The images, one taken hours before the explosions and one taken a day after, did not show the haphazard debris of a single blast, but rather what appeared to be three large craters from detonations.


The imagery showed at least eight destroyed warplanes, both Su-30 and Su-24 fighter jets, all parked on the air base’s tarmac. Two buildings near the aircraft were completely destroyed as well, with damage and large burn marks observable elsewhere at the military base.

Other parts of the air base appeared intact, including several helicopters and a large ammunition depot.

Local officials, scrambling to explain and cope with the destruction, offered more detail about what had happened to the base, on Crimea’s western coast. The peninsula’s Kremlin-installed leader, Sergei Aksyonov, said on Wednesday that 252 people had been moved to shelters because of damage to homes. At least 62 apartment buildings and 20 commercial structures had been damaged in the blast, he said on Telegram, and officials were still cataloging damage to private homes.

Ukraine has not officially taken responsibility for the explosions, which startled beachgoers at a nearby Black Sea resort. But a senior Ukrainian military official said on Wednesday that Ukraine’s special forces — along with local resistance fighters loyal to the government in Kyiv — were behind the blast.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate military matters, the senior official would not disclose the type of weapon used in the attack, saying only that “a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used.”



Satellite images of the Saki air base, on Crimea’s western Black Sea coast, taken before the explosions Tuesday and afterward, on Wednesday.


It was unclear what Ukraine would have used to cause the explosions. Ukraine possesses few weapons that can reach the peninsula, aside from aircraft that would risk being shot down immediately by Russia’s heavy air defenses. The air base, near the city of Novofedorivka, is about 200 miles from the nearest Ukrainian military position, reducing the likelihood that a missile strike was responsible.

An attack on a target in Crimea, which Russia has transformed over eight years of occupation into a bristling military hub, would also represent an expansion of Ukraine’s military reach since the invasion began in February. Although fighting has raged for weeks in southern Ukraine, including near Europe’s largest nuclear plant, Crimea’s distance and defenses have kept it far from Ukrainian attacks.

Videos reviewed and verified by The New York Times showed that a plume of smoke was rising from the air base just before at least three explosions: two in quick succession and a third a few moments later. It is unclear from the videos what caused the blasts.

The senior Ukrainian official would not disclose whether local resistance forces, known as partisans, carried out the attack or assisted Ukrainian military units in targeting the base, as has sometimes occurred in other Russia-occupied territories.
To reach targets deep behind enemy lines, Ukraine has increasingly turned to guerrillas in those territories, officials said. Partisans have, for instance, helped Ukrainian forces target Russian bases and ammunition depots in the Kherson region, Ukrainian officials say.


Ukraine’s military and its partisan allies, often acting in coordination, have managed to attack Russian targets in occupied territory far from the front. Russia has also had attacks within its own borders, including a helicopter assault on a fuel depot and fires at another fuel depot — both sites relatively close to Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian officials have hinted at involvement in those strikes, but not made public admissions of responsibility. On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said it could not “determine the cause of the explosion” in Crimea, and suggested that personnel at the base adhere to no-smoking regulations.

[[it was a commando team of 12 using 3 armed drones, coming by sea]]

Russia has sought to stamp out resistance in occupied areas, using fear and indoctrination to force Ukrainians into adopting Russian documents, currency and television. In towns and cities in Kherson, the Russian-backed authorities have arrested hundreds of people and set the stage for referendums on unifying with Russia — like the one held in Crimea in 2014, denounced as illegitimate by Ukraine and the West.

Ukraine has pushed to retake territory in the south in recent weeks, but as fighting has intensified so have fears about the nuclear facility in the region, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe.

Image
A Russian guard at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which Ukraine says is being used by Russia as cover for artillery attacks on nearby towns and cities.

A Russian guard at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which Ukraine says is being used by Russia as cover for artillery attacks on nearby towns and cities. Credit...Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters


Russian forces have used the facility for weeks as a base to launch attacks, knowing that it is extremely difficult for Ukraine to return fire without threatening the plant’s reactors, according to the Ukrainian authorities and independent analysts.

Nevertheless, fighting appears to be escalating around the facility. Overnight, Russian forces fired Grad missiles at the nearby town of Nikopol from across the Dnipro River, killing at least 13 civilians and wounding 11 others, a Ukrainian military official in the region, Valentyn Reznichenko, said on Telegram on Wednesday.

It was not clear whether the overnight attack had come from the grounds of the nuclear plant. On Saturday, rocket fire struck a dry spent-fuel storage facility at the plant itself. Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for the episode, which prompted the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, Rafael Mariano Grossi, to express “grave concern” over the fighting.

Based on information provided by Ukraine, Mr. Grossi said on Tuesday that there was no immediate threat to nuclear safety as a result of Saturday’s incident. He again called for a team of U.N. nuclear experts to be allowed to go to the plant as soon as possible to help stabilize the situation.


Image
A crater left by a Russian missile strike in the village of Kushuhum, in the Zaporizhzhia region, on Wednesday.

A crater left by a Russian missile strike in the village of Kushuhum, in the Zaporizhzhia region, on Wednesday.Credit...Dmytro Smolienko/Reuters

A crater left by a Russian missile strike in the village of Kushuhum, in the Zaporizhzhia region, on Wednesday.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yesterday I think 10 warships from Taiwan cruised right next to 10 Chinese warships in the Strait of Taiwan RIGHT ON the so called line dividing the strait.

A US carrier task force is going to shoot the strait sometime over the next few days, possibly engaging Chinese naval and airforces directly.

I assume the 100,000 North Koreans are inbound to the Ukraine. The USA just had its Krystahlnacht in Florida.
It is entirely possible ARMED MILITIA maga types will show up by the thousands with their AR-15's, to defend key largo and Trump.
I have heard 3 statements from the WH the Doj and the fbi indicating they are TERRIFIED of large numbers of trumpsters with AR-15's showing up and shooting them.

PREPARE FOR WAR AS BEST YOU CAN.

Your historical reference to "Kristallnacht" is wildly inaccurate.

These are two completely different events.
 
Last edited:

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
At least in hindsight, I suppose taking a carefree family summer vacation in an occupied country, in the middle of a shooting war, was not such a good idea?
----------
Explosions rocked a Russian airbase in Crimea on Tuesday, in what appeared to be an unprecedented Ukrainian attack.

If confirmed, the strike would represent a dramatic escalation in the five-month long conflict.

Ukrainian officials claimed responsibility for the blast at the Saki airfield, 125 miles behind the frontline. Russian tourists were filmed gazing at mushroom clouds on the skyline. The peninsula, occupied by Moscow's forces since 2014, has so far been spared from the fighting.


Runtime 1:03

Crimea explosion: Russians flee after Ukraine strikes air field

View: https://youtu.be/tt1SQrWafOE
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
LOL - "Cruel Summer".
--------------------------
Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video Ukraine’s defense ministry published a video Thursday mocking Russian tourists who fled Crimea.

0:34

Ukraine Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea.

View: https://youtu.be/MJ870UCam7k
 

raven

TB Fanatic
LOL - "Cruel Summer".
--------------------------
Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video Ukraine’s defense ministry published a video Thursday mocking Russian tourists who fled Crimea.

0:34

Ukraine Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea.

View: https://youtu.be/MJ870UCam7k
Engrish is the national language of Russia
(who do you think they are trolling, really?)
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well we shall find out. Putin et al said if the ukie terrorists hit the crimea there would be a massive military response by Russia.

NATO and the USA keep a full war footing, technical operation, advice, actual weapons in a state of FULL WAR with Russia.

Why Russia hasn't responded scorched earth is beyond me unless he is preparing for a joint first strike with China on CONUS and Taiwan.
I never thought Putin would take such abuse. Putin is waiting for something.
THE NUCLEAR CAPABLE TUPELOV BOMBER BUZZING ALASKA WAS A VERY CLEAR MESSAGE.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
You of the weak Russia crowd, and they didn't mean it when they said they would launch a MASSIVE strike if Crimea was hit.
Well go look at the fuelbombs dropped on the apartment blocks. THis is what Putin will do to kiev.
Zippy preening now that he got several city bocks of apartments FLATTENED.
0
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Fair Use Cited
--------
Explosions Reportedly Rock Belarus Airfield, a Suspected Russian Base
BY BRENDAN COLE ON 8/11/22 AT 11:08 AM EDT

A military airfield in Belarus where Russian aircraft are said to be stationed has reportedly been hit by explosions.

Citing eyewitnesses, the Belarusian Hajun project, a social media channel that follows the Ukrainian war, tweeted there had been "at least eight explosions" overnight on Wednesday near the airfield in Ziabrovka, in the Gomel region.

The Belarusian defense ministry denied any blasts took place, saying that at around 11 p.m. local time "a vehicle caught fire after its engine was replaced" and that no one was injured.

But the Hajun Project tweeted what it said was a video of one of the blasts filmed at a distance of 16 miles from the airfield that "shows a large flash" that "doesn't look like an 'engine fire.'"

1660258821757.png

Satellite images taken at the end of June have indicated the presence of Russian military equipment at Ziabrovka, which borders Ukraine's Chernihiv region. Belarusian journalists have also tracked the movement of such equipment since spring, independent Russian-language news outlet Meduza reported.

On July 7, Ukrainian armed forces said that Belarus had transferred the airfield to Russia and "measures are being taken to equip the Russian military base" there.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense previously reported that live-fire exercises would be held from August 9 to August 25, although the exact locations were not named and it is not clear if the explosions are connected with them, Meduza added.

Franak Viačorka, a senior advisor to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, tweeted there had been "at least eight explosions" at the airfield near the Ukrainian border where "Russian military aircraft are often stationed."

He added that "so far, there is no confirmation if these explosions are connected to any military drills conducted by the Russian and Belarus armies on Belarus territory."

Ukraine suggested that the reported blasts could have been carried out by Belarusians who were supporting Kyiv's forces.

Yuriy Ignat, the spokesperson of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Belsat TV: "We know that they are extremely kind and intelligent people who are already helping our state...extremely well."

"And we just thank the brotherly Belarusian people, who will help Ukraine defeat the occupiers and kick them out of our land. And from yours, too," Yuriy Ignat added, according to the Hajun project.

Newsweek reached out to the Belarusian foreign ministry and Russian defense ministry for comment.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who held onto power despite a 2020 election internationally condemned as fraudulent, has relied on Vladimir Putin to keep him in office. He has allowed the Russian military to use his country's territory to launch attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of Putin's invasion on February 24.

Tsikhanouskaya said this week that soon after the war started, Belarusians engaged in acts of sabotage against important Russian supply routes.

"Rail partisans slowed down military transport and information was given to Ukrainian forces about bases from which Russian missiles were fired," Tsikhanouskaya told German news agency DPA. She said that Belarusians would put up a strong resistance against any attempt for Lukashenko to drag the country into full participation in the war.

"Our partisan movement will sabotage this," she told the outlet. "Orders will be refused."

It is not the first Russian airbase to reportedly come under attack this week. On Tuesday, the Saki air base in Russian-occupied Crimea was attacked. Kyiv has not publicly claimed responsibility, but Ukrainian armed forces mocked Russia for the attack.

 

jward

passin' thru
US Strategic Command


6h • 7 tweets • 3 min read



“Russia’s escalating rhetoric against NATO & the US shows they’re trying to exploit a perceived deterrence gap: a threshold below which they mistakenly believe they may be able to employ nuclear weapons”

“Make no mistake - we’re ready”

-Adm. Richard, USSTRATCOM commander


“The Chinese Communist Party continues its pursuit of a world-class military by 2030.”

“Taken as a whole, this is a military designed for coercion.”

“This requires us to make immediate and significant planning and capability shifts, which are underway.”

“The need to think about problems holistically, and then integrate effects across functions, theaters, domains and the spectrum of conflict, is long overdue.”

“As @SecDef said: ‘Integrated deterrence is backstopped by a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent.’”


“We must do three things…as part of our overall Integrated Deterrence strategy”
- Reevaluate & readjust missile defense posture
- Acquire new capabilities to attribute, defend against & respond appropriately to attacks
- Integrate air, space & missile defense capabilities


In the coming “decisive decade,” we must tackle our era’s defining challenges by:

1. Revising the theory of #StrategicDeterrence into a global, dynamic, integrated approach that accounts for the three-party reality we face.
2. Going faster. More complex modernization programs mean our acquisition programs must move faster.
3. Working together. China integrates its government, military, academia and industry. We have to get better at this.
“The free world is now being tested in ways we haven’t seen in decades.”

“We always rise to the challenge. We’ve done it before, and we MUST do it again.”

- Adm. Charles Richard, #USSTRATCOM commander, speaking at the 2022 Space & Missile Defense Symposium
 

jward

passin' thru
Ukraine – the situation (August 10, 2022)
Uwe Parpart


Overview
* The Ukrainian “offensive” in the south has been underway for 18 days as of today. As an American military intelligence officer observed, “I’m reminded of Lincoln’s comment about McClellan: ‘He has a case of the slows.’” More on this propaganda offensive below.
* In the principal theaters of action, the mouth of the Donbas salient, the line of Ukrainian fortifications near Avdivka, west of the city of Donetsk, and the areas west and north-west of Kherson, there is heavy and stepped-up Russian artillery shelling accompanied by multiple missile attacks throughout Ukraine.
* Russian forces are within 2-3 kilometers of the city of Bakhmut, the transport hub that anchors the south end of the Donbas salient.
* Amnesty International acknowledged the “distress and anger” caused by its report that accused the Ukrainian army of criminal behavior by using civilian facilities as ambush sites and shields but said that it “fully” stands by the report.
* Reports of Russians mining and threatening to blow up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been shown to be false, according to US military sources.

MAP2-.jpg


East/Center
Russian forces are engaged in ground and tacair operations with strong artillery support along all points and lines of contact from north and northwest of Sloviansk to Bakhmut and further south to the area west of Donetsk with activity focused on Avdivka, the scene of heavy fighting back in 2017.
Sloviansk itself and at least 11 small towns near Bohorodychne northwest of Sloviansk were struck by sustained artillery fire. Further east, there was small unit ground activity near Siversk.
But principal Russian attention continues to be on Bakhmut as ground forces are pushing toward the transport hub from the Luhan River Reservoir as well as from the east.
Reports that Russian forces have entered Bakhmut from the south-east were contradicted by the Ukrainian General Staff. But even the slowest Russian grind will bring the south-end anchor of the Donbas salient under Russian control in a matter of days to a week.

The most intense current fighting in the East/Center sector is taking place further south along an extended line of contact from Krasnohorivka in the north to Avdivka and Pisky around Donetsk City all the way down to Marinka. The Avdivka to Pisky segment is being contended the hardest.
After taking the fortified Butivka mine halfway between the center of Donetsk City and the center of Avdivka, Russian forces now appear intent on pushing through the fortifications of Avdivka established by Ukraine in 2015-17.
The Ukrainian General Staff still reports that the Russians have not taken Pisky but bloggers and videos show Russians in the town center. A breakthrough at Avdivka looks possible in the near term and would open the western areas of the Donetsk Oblast to Russian attack along the major M-04 highway.

South
The vaunted Ukrainian southern offensive “to liberate Kherson Oblast by September”, as asserted by President Volodymyr Zelensky, to date has been desultory at best.
Aside from establishing a bridgehead across the Inhulets River between Bilohirka and Andrivka some 100 kilometers north of Kherson City prior to the announced start of the offensive on July 23 and off-and-on company-size engagements with Russian forces in the area, there has been no Ukrainian ground forces activity.
The main tactic appears to be to use some of the 16 HIMARS delivered by the US to strike Russian ammo depots and attack bridges across the Dnepr River upstream from Kherson. Perhaps the Ukrainians are still massing forces and the plan was to sever the Russian supply lines and let them “whither on the vine.” But that is not playing out.

Another Ukrainian plan might be to conduct a grand deception, tie some Russian forces down near the bridgehead and build a large strike force near the City of Kryvyi Rih to drive down the west bank of the Dnepr River and catch the Russians from the rear. But there’s no evidence of that yet.
Meanwhile, the Russians are moving more men and material to the region, reportedly at a rate of three to four major convoys a day, and are directing near incessant artillery fire into the bridgehead toward the cities of Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Nikopol and into Ukrainian defensive positions along the LoCs.
That has the feel of a Russian “counteroffensive” in the direction of Mykolaiv and some Russian forces have probed in that direction. US military intelligence is now picking up talk by Ukrainians of “postponement” of the offensive.

Assessment
If the Ukrainian offensive that never was is indeed being postponed, then the delay would merely acknowledge military realities. To conduct a significant military offensive without sizeable air support or decisive air superiority is difficult if not impossible.
Even the best of long-range artillery cannot substitute adequately for tacair operations. Moreover, of course, the classic three-to-one manpower advantage or close to that has to be in place. How would the Ukrainian armed forces have come up with that?
Manpower losses on both sides in the months-long slow grind in the Donbas salient were large, probably larger on the Ukrainian side while they had been larger on the Russian side in the early ill-fated attack on Kiev.
New Ukrainian recruits plus forces withdrawn from the East and Center sections of the war theater would have had to make up a Kherson offensive strike force. But there are major constraints on both of these resources.

Russian forces pushing west out of Donetsk into Pisky and threatening Avdivka – even if they were not to continue to drive west – represent a severe threat to more central regions of Ukraine.
A Ukrainian soldier stands against the background of an apartment house ruined in the Russian shelling in Borodyanka, Ukraine, on April 6, 2022. Image: Screengrab / ABC News
Moreover, a Russian victory at Avdivka would have serious morale consequences as it would mean a loss of positions held by Ukrainian forces for seven years. A similar threat is posed by the likely fall of Bakhmut, which might be followed by the fall of Sloviansk.

There may have been the vague and rather desperate hope by the Ukrainians to be able to trap substantial numbers of Russian forces in exposed positions west of the Dnepr River and deliver a quick and demoralizing blow. There may also have been the hope that allegedly exhausted Russia would fail to marshal forces to counter the slow-motion Ukrainian moves.
But it was always a high-risk gamble, a push they will have known could not succeed but undertook nonetheless to convince the US and NATO to deliver massive additional offensive weapons or even eventually intervene more directly.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
US Strategic Command


6h • 7 tweets • 3 min read



“Russia’s escalating rhetoric against NATO & the US shows they’re trying to exploit a perceived deterrence gap: a threshold below which they mistakenly believe they may be able to employ nuclear weapons”

“Make no mistake - we’re ready”

-Adm. Richard, USSTRATCOM commander


“The Chinese Communist Party continues its pursuit of a world-class military by 2030.”

“Taken as a whole, this is a military designed for coercion.”

“This requires us to make immediate and significant planning and capability shifts, which are underway.”

“The need to think about problems holistically, and then integrate effects across functions, theaters, domains and the spectrum of conflict, is long overdue.”

“As @SecDef said: ‘Integrated deterrence is backstopped by a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent.’”


“We must do three things…as part of our overall Integrated Deterrence strategy”
- Reevaluate & readjust missile defense posture
- Acquire new capabilities to attribute, defend against & respond appropriately to attacks
- Integrate air, space & missile defense capabilities


In the coming “decisive decade,” we must tackle our era’s defining challenges by:

1. Revising the theory of #StrategicDeterrence into a global, dynamic, integrated approach that accounts for the three-party reality we face.
2. Going faster. More complex modernization programs mean our acquisition programs must move faster.
3. Working together. China integrates its government, military, academia and industry. We have to get better at this.
“The free world is now being tested in ways we haven’t seen in decades.”

“We always rise to the challenge. We’ve done it before, and we MUST do it again.”

- Adm. Charles Richard, #USSTRATCOM commander, speaking at the 2022 Space & Missile Defense Symposium
Well now, . . . "that" is a pretty scary admission.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Ready for what????

Don’t tell me we are ready to unleash the world wide feared new spec ops childrens Library trans twirking brigrade???

Oh the humanity!!!!

My concern is that in order to re-validate the "national will" required for deterrence to be effective some bright bulb inside the Beltway is going to pick another fight someplace and think they can "manage" the situation.

Something difficult to do when it is obvious that there's a marionette sitting in the CinC chair. That in large part is how we find ourselves where we are today.
 

mistaken1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ready for what????

Don’t tell me we are ready to unleash the world wide feared new spec ops childrens Library trans twirking brigrade???

Oh the humanity!!!!

Our enemies will surrender or be twerked to death on the modern battlefield ....
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
What Russia did to those apartment blocks is the future. You bomb crimea and we destroy a city like Russia said it would. Eventually Russia will drop a nuke or more fuel air bombs.
Like what they are dropping on kherson now.
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
You of the weak Russia crowd, and they didn't mean it when they said they would launch a MASSIVE strike if Crimea was hit.
Well go look at the fuelbombs dropped on the apartment blocks. THis is what Putin will do to kiev.
Zippy preening now that he got several city bocks of apartments FLATTENED.
0
You beat one heck of a steady drum. Putin isnt going to attack Kiev. If you look at those apartment blocks it appears they had already sustained someserious damage. If I were to guess that was a Ukrainian military position.
 
Top