jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
2h
Update: Russia: Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma: The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO may lead to a nuclear disaster.
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
2h
Update: Russia: Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma: The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO may lead to a nuclear disaster.
jward
passin' thru
Hmm. how does that change things- or does it?
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Update: Donetsk separatists: According to our information, there are foreign prisoners among the forces that surrendered in the Azovstal complex in Mariupol.
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Update: Donetsk separatists: According to our information, there are foreign prisoners among the forces that surrendered in the Azovstal complex in Mariupol.
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Only if she eats taco bell. But i digest...
Dont think it does. There are people from dozens of nations over there fighting the Russians. If it were an organized NATO unit that would be different but the Russians would be screaming about it from the rooftops.
WTSR
Veteran Member
Intel Slava Z
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFall explained that all the promises to Ukraine about joining NATO were just lies and a diplomatic game.
t.me
After hearing this what will the Ukrainians do?
Not at this point. I've read in more than one place that the NATO people inside were marked for termination by the Azovites before the end. There's lots more to be learned from this story yet, I believe.
At least you can claim in-digestion from eating at Taco Hell!
jward
passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
#Israel & EU accelerate talks on gas deal; urgent contacts aim to secure Israeli gas via Egypt to minimize European reliance on Russia (via@IsraelHayomHeb )
@IsraelRadar_com
#Israel & EU accelerate talks on gas deal; urgent contacts aim to secure Israeli gas via Egypt to minimize European reliance on Russia (via@IsraelHayomHeb )
WTSR
Veteran Member
That EGWW3 is quoting Pro-Russian sources or Foreigners or all above?
I think Ukrainians High Command sacrificed Azov and the like and any foreign supporters.
Getting rid of them helps to solve certain problems.
jward
passin' thru
He is quoting "donetsk separatists" as saying.... is my read of it, and recollection of his standard modes of presentation.
..I hear ya, tho, and see the sense in what you suggest.
..I hear ya, tho, and see the sense in what you suggest.
jward
passin' thru
did we discuss this yet?
Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews
U.S. ambassador to Finland tells @DavidAsmanfox before Russia cut off natural gas, the Finns signed a deal with Texas-based Excelerate Energy Friday to begin importing liquefied natural gas later this year.
Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews
U.S. ambassador to Finland tells @DavidAsmanfox before Russia cut off natural gas, the Finns signed a deal with Texas-based Excelerate Energy Friday to begin importing liquefied natural gas later this year.
jward
passin' thru
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21
May 21, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDF
Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Mason Clark
May 21, 5:30 pm ETRussian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days as efforts on other axes of advance, including Izyum, remain largely stalled. Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast will likely move to capitalize on recent gains made in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Luhansk-Popasna arc to encircle and besiege Severodonetsk—the final Ukrainian strongpoint in Luhansk Oblast. Russian milbloggers are hypothesizing on the success of Russian tactics in the area and have dubbed it the Battle of Severodonetsk—emphasizing that this is the preliminary line of effort in the Donbas theatre.
Key Takeaways
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, “Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces made small advances southeast of Izyum on May 21. Footage posted by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) on May 21 showed DNR forces examining a destroyed dam in Oskil, about 10 km southeast of Izyum, suggesting that Ukrainian forces likely withdrew from the settlement across the Oskil River.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces around Izyum are preparing to resume an offensive in the direction of Slovyansk.[2] Russian forces additionally shelled Velyka Komyshuvakha to the southwest of Izyum and Dovehenke to the southeast of Izyum, indicating they plan to continue offensive operations to the south of Izyum.[3]
Russian forces made gains in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and intensified efforts to capture Severodonetsk on May 21. Russian troops blew up a bridge across the Severskyi Donetsk River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, setting conditions to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and take Severodonetsk.[4] Pro-Russian milbloggers wrote about the beginning of the Battle of Severodonetsk on May 20 and claimed that Russian forces are closing in on the area from the north, east, and south.[5] The milbloggers emphasized the importance of disrupting Ukrainian GLOCs between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which are facilitated by at least two major bridges across the Severskyi Donetsk River. Russian forces’ destruction of at least one of the two bridges between the two towns will likely hinder Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk and indicate a Russian effort to encircle the city.[6] Russian forces reportedly conducted attacks against several towns around Popasna, which may allow them to push northward toward Severodonetsk.[7] Russian claims about their gains around Popasna remain unconfirmed by open sources as of the time of this publication.[8]
Russian forces focused on offensive operations around Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances on May 21.[9] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are fighting in Lypove, Vasylivka, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka under air and artillery support and that Russian forces plan to resume operations in the area of Yampil-Siversk (just east of Lyman) by crossing the Severskyi Donets River.[10] The main Russian effort in the Lyman area will likely focus on advancing westward to reach the Donetsk-Kharkiv Oblast administrative border and merge with operations to the south of Izyum.
Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control of Mariupol as the last group of Ukrainian fighters surrendered and left the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 21.[11] The announcement of the conclusion of hostilities in Mariupol comes a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed victory in the Battle of Mariupol on April 21.[12] Russian forces reportedly began demining the territory of the plant and restoring the Port of Mariupol.[13]
Russian occupation forces are likely intensifying “filtration” processes to consolidate control of Mariupol. Ukrainian Ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova stated that up to 4,000 men from Mariupol are now in filtration camps outside of the city, and Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko claimed that Chechen Rosgvardia troops are taking over control of filtration points as DNR forces redeploy to other areas.[14] The information space in Mariupol will likely become increasingly restricted in the coming weeks as Russian forces shift their attention from the capture of Azovstal to consolidating occupational control over the city.
Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces maintained their positions to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border and conducted air and artillery strikes north of Kharkiv City on May 21.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russia intends to strengthen its grouping around Kharkiv City with unspecified elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army.[16] The Internal Minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) additionally claimed that its personnel are operating in Vovchansk, northern Kharkiv Oblast.[17] These reports indicate that Russian forces are reinforcing their presence north of Kharkiv City to hold their current positions and push back potential Ukrainian advances further north toward the international border and east toward Russian GLOCs heading toward Izyum.
Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces may be preparing for an offensive to capture the remainder of northern Kherson Oblast and push toward Zaporizhia City despite not making any confirmed advances on the southern axis on May 21.[18] The Kherson Regional State Administration stated that Russian troops are replenishing their grouping in Vysokopillyya and Arkhangelske, northern Kherson Oblast, in anticipation of increased combat activity in the area of the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[19] The Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration noted that there is a high concentration of Russian forces in Inzhenerne, south of Huliapole, indicating that Russian troops are potentially preparing for continued offensives toward Huliapole.[20] The Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration claimed that occupying forces in Melitopol are hanging banners to celebrate the 220th anniversary of the Taurida Governate, which may indicate Russian forces intend to make occupied areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia a quasi-republic like the LNR or DNR, but also emphasizes lack of consistency in handling occupation agendas across Ukraine.[21] Russian forces additionally shelled and launched missile strikes on Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[22]
Ukrainian authorities are reportedly strengthening border security between Ukraine and Transnistria.[23] The local Ukrainian border guard detachment announced new restrictions prohibiting the civilian use of drones, night vision equipment, and navigation of small boats in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are protecting the border and conducting counter-sabotage measures.[24]
Immediate items to watch
May 21, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDFKarolina Hird, George Barros, and Mason Clark
May 21, 5:30 pm ET
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are conducting operations to cut off Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk across the Severskyi Donetsk River.
- The information space in Mariupol will likely become increasingly restricted in the coming weeks as Russian forces shift focus from completing the capture of the Azovstal Steel Plant to consolidating occupational control of the city.
- Russian troops are likely reinforcing their grouping around Kharkiv City to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the international border.
- Russian forces may be assembling forces in certain areas of Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to initiate further offensive operations on the southern axis.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, “Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.
- Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate main effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
- Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces made small advances southeast of Izyum on May 21. Footage posted by the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) on May 21 showed DNR forces examining a destroyed dam in Oskil, about 10 km southeast of Izyum, suggesting that Ukrainian forces likely withdrew from the settlement across the Oskil River.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces around Izyum are preparing to resume an offensive in the direction of Slovyansk.[2] Russian forces additionally shelled Velyka Komyshuvakha to the southwest of Izyum and Dovehenke to the southeast of Izyum, indicating they plan to continue offensive operations to the south of Izyum.[3]
Russian forces made gains in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and intensified efforts to capture Severodonetsk on May 21. Russian troops blew up a bridge across the Severskyi Donetsk River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, setting conditions to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and take Severodonetsk.[4] Pro-Russian milbloggers wrote about the beginning of the Battle of Severodonetsk on May 20 and claimed that Russian forces are closing in on the area from the north, east, and south.[5] The milbloggers emphasized the importance of disrupting Ukrainian GLOCs between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which are facilitated by at least two major bridges across the Severskyi Donetsk River. Russian forces’ destruction of at least one of the two bridges between the two towns will likely hinder Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk and indicate a Russian effort to encircle the city.[6] Russian forces reportedly conducted attacks against several towns around Popasna, which may allow them to push northward toward Severodonetsk.[7] Russian claims about their gains around Popasna remain unconfirmed by open sources as of the time of this publication.[8]
Russian forces focused on offensive operations around Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances on May 21.[9] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are fighting in Lypove, Vasylivka, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka under air and artillery support and that Russian forces plan to resume operations in the area of Yampil-Siversk (just east of Lyman) by crossing the Severskyi Donets River.[10] The main Russian effort in the Lyman area will likely focus on advancing westward to reach the Donetsk-Kharkiv Oblast administrative border and merge with operations to the south of Izyum.
Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control of Mariupol as the last group of Ukrainian fighters surrendered and left the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 21.[11] The announcement of the conclusion of hostilities in Mariupol comes a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed victory in the Battle of Mariupol on April 21.[12] Russian forces reportedly began demining the territory of the plant and restoring the Port of Mariupol.[13]
Russian occupation forces are likely intensifying “filtration” processes to consolidate control of Mariupol. Ukrainian Ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova stated that up to 4,000 men from Mariupol are now in filtration camps outside of the city, and Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko claimed that Chechen Rosgvardia troops are taking over control of filtration points as DNR forces redeploy to other areas.[14] The information space in Mariupol will likely become increasingly restricted in the coming weeks as Russian forces shift their attention from the capture of Azovstal to consolidating occupational control over the city.
Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces maintained their positions to prevent further Ukrainian advances toward the Russian border and conducted air and artillery strikes north of Kharkiv City on May 21.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russia intends to strengthen its grouping around Kharkiv City with unspecified elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army.[16] The Internal Minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) additionally claimed that its personnel are operating in Vovchansk, northern Kharkiv Oblast.[17] These reports indicate that Russian forces are reinforcing their presence north of Kharkiv City to hold their current positions and push back potential Ukrainian advances further north toward the international border and east toward Russian GLOCs heading toward Izyum.
Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces may be preparing for an offensive to capture the remainder of northern Kherson Oblast and push toward Zaporizhia City despite not making any confirmed advances on the southern axis on May 21.[18] The Kherson Regional State Administration stated that Russian troops are replenishing their grouping in Vysokopillyya and Arkhangelske, northern Kherson Oblast, in anticipation of increased combat activity in the area of the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[19] The Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration noted that there is a high concentration of Russian forces in Inzhenerne, south of Huliapole, indicating that Russian troops are potentially preparing for continued offensives toward Huliapole.[20] The Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration claimed that occupying forces in Melitopol are hanging banners to celebrate the 220th anniversary of the Taurida Governate, which may indicate Russian forces intend to make occupied areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia a quasi-republic like the LNR or DNR, but also emphasizes lack of consistency in handling occupation agendas across Ukraine.[21] Russian forces additionally shelled and launched missile strikes on Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.[22]
Ukrainian authorities are reportedly strengthening border security between Ukraine and Transnistria.[23] The local Ukrainian border guard detachment announced new restrictions prohibiting the civilian use of drones, night vision equipment, and navigation of small boats in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are protecting the border and conducting counter-sabotage measures.[24]
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the Russian border. Russan forces may commit elements of the 1st Tank Army to northern Kharkiv in the near future.
- The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.
- Russian forces in Mariupol will likely shift their focus to occupational control of the city as the siege of Azovstal has concluded.
- Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in southern Ukraine.
jward
passin' thru
[1]
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-8NiZeLdUw
[2] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[3] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[4] Readovka Kotsnews; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА); View: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1528028435637055490
; Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition; Kotsnews; View: https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1528043090140856322
[5] Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition; Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война)
[6] Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition
[7] View: https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1527762012406747137
; Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition
[8] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[9] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422;
Павло Кириленко / Донецька ОДА (ОВА) Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
[10] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[11] Минобороны России; РОДИОН_МИРОШНИК Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) Readovka
[12] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[13] Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[14] Андрющенко Time https://t.me/denisovaombudsman/6156?fbclid=IwAR3oPg3xObPGYeT9nAQjAx1HiPr...
[15] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
; Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА
[16] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[17] МВД ЛНР
[18] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: на вечір 20.05.2022 https://youtu.be/1RDtS1DcTEU На Миколаївському та Херсонському напрямку противник продовжує ведення бойових дій та інженерне облаштування своїх позицій із підготовкою запасних відступних рубежів. Активних наступальних дій вже протягом тривалого часу не веде.
️Позиції наших військ та населені пункти з мирними жителями безжалісно вкриває артилерійським і мінометним вогнем, здійснюючи близько 70 обстрілів за добу. Такі дії використовуються і як елемент залякування цивільних, і як спроби дискредитувати Збройні Сили України. Але у відповідь на такі провокації мешканці окупованих територій красномовно доводять, що вони вірять лише в Україну. Так, сьогодні над вокзалом окупованого Херсону замайорів синьо-жовтий прапор. По передмістю Миколаєва з настанням темряви знов вдарили реактивні системи залпового вогню. Вражено об’єкт приміської інфраструктури. Постраждалих нема. ️По Одещині ворог здійснив дві ракетні атаки із застосуванням авіації. Втілюючи один із знакових меседжів свого скаженого диктатора, рашисти вочевидь намагалися "замочити в сортирі" осередок нацизму і зруйнували пляжну вбиральню. ️ А трохи згодом, намагаючись реанімувати свій бойовий дух, вдарили по промисловому підприємству з добривами. Стався вибух, виникла пожежа. Але підрозділи ДСНС її швидко ліквідували. Ані постраждалих, ані загрози природному середовищу не виявлено. Нашими ж підрозділами ракетно-артилерійського озброєння та авіацією за добу завдано таких втрат рашистам: 
орків, танки Т-72, 
реактивна система залпового вогню «Град» та автомобільна техніка. 
️ Корабельне угруповання противника представлено сьома великими десантними кораблями і обов’язкової присутністю хоча б одного корабля – носія крилатих ракет. У прикордонні з Придністров’ям ситуація стабільна і контрольована. Тривають контрдиверсійні заходи, забезпечено надійну охорону державного кордону, ситуація в невизнаній республіці постійно моніториться, сили оборони півдня України готові до виконання завдань за призначенням. 
Тримаймо стрій! Разом переможемо! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South”; Log into Facebook; ttps://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=576427260718535; Log into Facebook
[19] https://www.facebook.com/100064555155257/posts/pfbid02FyAmAde2AcCvT1zWRL...
[20] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[21] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[22] Log into Facebook; Log into Facebook; Минобороны России https://www.facebook.com/100064555155257/posts/pfbid02FyAmAde2AcCvT1zWRL...
[23] Политика Страны
[24] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: на вечір 20.05.2022 https://youtu.be/1RDtS1DcTEU На Миколаївському та Херсонському напрямку противник продовжує ведення бойових дій та інженерне облаштування своїх позицій із підготовкою запасних відступних рубежів. Активних наступальних дій вже протягом тривалого часу не веде.️Позиції наших військ та населені пункти з мирними жителями безжалісно вкриває артилерійським і мінометним вогнем, здійснюючи близько 70 обстрілів за добу. Такі дії використовуються і як елемент залякування цивільних, і як спроби дискредитувати Збройні Сили України. Але у відповідь на такі провокації мешканці окупованих територій красномовно доводять, що вони вірять лише в Україну. Так, сьогодні над вокзалом окупованого Херсону замайорів синьо-жовтий прапор. По передмістю Миколаєва з настанням темряви знов вдарили реактивні системи залпового вогню. Вражено об’єкт приміської інфраструктури. Постраждалих нема. ️По Одещині ворог здійснив дві ракетні атаки із застосуванням авіації. Втілюючи один із знакових меседжів свого скаженого диктатора, рашисти вочевидь намагалися "замочити в сортирі" осередок нацизму і зруйнували пляжну вбиральню. ️ А трохи згодом, намагаючись реанімувати свій бойовий дух, вдарили по промисловому підприємству з добривами. Стався вибух, виникла пожежа. Але підрозділи ДСНС її швидко ліквідували. Ані постраждалих, ані загрози природному середовищу не виявлено. Нашими ж підрозділами ракетно-артилерійського озброєння та авіацією за добу завдано таких втрат рашистам: орків, танки Т-72, реактивна система залпового вогню «Град» та автомобільна техніка. ️ Корабельне угруповання противника представлено сьома великими десантними кораблями і обов’язкової присутністю хоча б одного корабля – носія крилатих ракет. У прикордонні з Придністров’ям ситуація стабільна і контрольована. Тривають контрдиверсійні заходи, забезпечено надійну охорону державного кордону, ситуація в невизнаній республіці постійно моніториться, сили оборони півдня України готові до виконання завдань за призначенням. Тримаймо стрій! Разом переможемо! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South”
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Ukraine Project
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Moldova Battle Map Draft May 21,2022.png
Severodonetsk Battle Map Draft May 21,2022.png
Kharkiv Battle Map Draft May 21,2022.png
Luhansk Battle Map Draft May 21,2022.png
DraftUkraineCoTMay21,2022.png
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft May 21,2022.png
Institute for the Study of War
[2] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[3] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[4] Readovka Kotsnews; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА); View: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1528028435637055490
; Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition; Kotsnews; View: https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1528043090140856322
[5] Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition; Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война)
[6] Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition
[7] View: https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1527762012406747137
; Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition
[8] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
[9] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422;
Павло Кириленко / Донецька ОДА (ОВА) Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
[10] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[11] Минобороны России; РОДИОН_МИРОШНИК Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) Readovka
[12] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[13] Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война) View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[14] Андрющенко Time https://t.me/denisovaombudsman/6156?fbclid=IwAR3oPg3xObPGYeT9nAQjAx1HiPr...
[15] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/322034970109588
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
; Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА
[16] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/321589963487422
[17] МВД ЛНР
[18] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: на вечір 20.05.2022 https://youtu.be/1RDtS1DcTEU На Миколаївському та Херсонському напрямку противник продовжує ведення бойових дій та інженерне облаштування своїх позицій із підготовкою запасних відступних рубежів. Активних наступальних дій вже протягом тривалого часу не веде.
️Позиції наших військ та населені пункти з мирними жителями безжалісно вкриває артилерійським і мінометним вогнем, здійснюючи близько 70 обстрілів за добу. Такі дії використовуються і як елемент залякування цивільних, і як спроби дискредитувати Збройні Сили України. Але у відповідь на такі провокації мешканці окупованих територій красномовно доводять, що вони вірять лише в Україну. Так, сьогодні над вокзалом окупованого Херсону замайорів синьо-жовтий прапор. По передмістю Миколаєва з настанням темряви знов вдарили реактивні системи залпового вогню. Вражено об’єкт приміської інфраструктури. Постраждалих нема. ️По Одещині ворог здійснив дві ракетні атаки із застосуванням авіації. Втілюючи один із знакових меседжів свого скаженого диктатора, рашисти вочевидь намагалися "замочити в сортирі" осередок нацизму і зруйнували пляжну вбиральню. ️ А трохи згодом, намагаючись реанімувати свій бойовий дух, вдарили по промисловому підприємству з добривами. Стався вибух, виникла пожежа. Але підрозділи ДСНС її швидко ліквідували. Ані постраждалих, ані загрози природному середовищу не виявлено. Нашими ж підрозділами ракетно-артилерійського озброєння та авіацією за добу завдано таких втрат рашистам: орків, танки Т-72, реактивна система залпового вогню «Град» та автомобільна техніка. ️ Корабельне угруповання противника представлено сьома великими десантними кораблями і обов’язкової присутністю хоча б одного корабля – носія крилатих ракет. У прикордонні з Придністров’ям ситуація стабільна і контрольована. Тривають контрдиверсійні заходи, забезпечено надійну охорону державного кордону, ситуація в невизнаній республіці постійно моніториться, сили оборони півдня України готові до виконання завдань за призначенням. Тримаймо стрій! Разом переможемо! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South”; Log into Facebook; ttps://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=576427260718535; Log into Facebook[19] https://www.facebook.com/100064555155257/posts/pfbid02FyAmAde2AcCvT1zWRL...
[20] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[21] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[22] Log into Facebook; Log into Facebook; Минобороны России https://www.facebook.com/100064555155257/posts/pfbid02FyAmAde2AcCvT1zWRL...
[23] Политика Страны
[24] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: на вечір 20.05.2022 https://youtu.be/1RDtS1DcTEU На Миколаївському та Херсонському напрямку противник продовжує ведення бойових дій та інженерне облаштування своїх позицій із підготовкою запасних відступних рубежів. Активних наступальних дій вже протягом тривалого часу не веде.
️Позиції наших військ та населені пункти з мирними жителями безжалісно вкриває артилерійським і мінометним вогнем, здійснюючи близько 70 обстрілів за добу. Такі дії використовуються і як елемент залякування цивільних, і як спроби дискредитувати Збройні Сили України. Але у відповідь на такі провокації мешканці окупованих територій красномовно доводять, що вони вірять лише в Україну. Так, сьогодні над вокзалом окупованого Херсону замайорів синьо-жовтий прапор. По передмістю Миколаєва з настанням темряви знов вдарили реактивні системи залпового вогню. Вражено об’єкт приміської інфраструктури. Постраждалих нема. ️По Одещині ворог здійснив дві ракетні атаки із застосуванням авіації. Втілюючи один із знакових меседжів свого скаженого диктатора, рашисти вочевидь намагалися "замочити в сортирі" осередок нацизму і зруйнували пляжну вбиральню. ️ А трохи згодом, намагаючись реанімувати свій бойовий дух, вдарили по промисловому підприємству з добривами. Стався вибух, виникла пожежа. Але підрозділи ДСНС її швидко ліквідували. Ані постраждалих, ані загрози природному середовищу не виявлено. Нашими ж підрозділами ракетно-артилерійського озброєння та авіацією за добу завдано таких втрат рашистам: орків, танки Т-72, реактивна система залпового вогню «Град» та автомобільна техніка. ️ Корабельне угруповання противника представлено сьома великими десантними кораблями і обов’язкової присутністю хоча б одного корабля – носія крилатих ракет. У прикордонні з Придністров’ям ситуація стабільна і контрольована. Тривають контрдиверсійні заходи, забезпечено надійну охорону державного кордону, ситуація в невизнаній республіці постійно моніториться, сили оборони півдня України готові до виконання завдань за призначенням. Тримаймо стрій! Разом переможемо! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South”Tags
Ukraine Project
File Attachments:
Institute for the Study of War
yeah, it's the washington post, but i rate this as mostly accurate.
with the clear implication that only Putin stands in the way of a reasonable negotiated settlement to this mess.
Russia tries to rebound in Ukraine as prospects for victory fade
Published May 21, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
The Russian military, mired in a war with no end in sight, is attempting to resuscitate its sputtering offensive in Ukraine, firing commanders, splitting combat units into smaller formations, and redoubling its reliance on artillery and other long-range weapons.
The shift comes nearly three months after Russian and American officials alike predicted a quick and decisive victory for Moscow. After the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers and an avalanche of failures since the invasion began Feb. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin has narrowed his objectives in a campaign viewed as unsustainable, unrealistic — and likely unwinnable.
That assessment is shared by an array of observers, including Western intelligence officials and independent analysts who have tracked the war closely. Russia, said Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, is losing in Ukraine militarily, politically and morally.
“When we look at the battlefield, Russia’s conventional capacity is already overstretched,” Marran said. “The losses in Russian manpower and equipment are not sustainable at the same operations tempo that we have seen so far.”
Unless Russia launches a full-scale mobilization of its military, Marran said, it has “no remedy in sight.” And while it appears that “some sense of reality has kicked in” among Russian military leaders, Putin himself remains intent on controlling everything from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to the western port city of Odessa and Transnistria, a breakaway republic in neighboring Moldova.
“We might be seeing a continuing military campaign that is, to a degree, detached from what is realistic, from what might be called smart or feasible in the long term,” Marran said. The Estonians had long predicted, even before the invasion, that Russia would face significant resistance from the Ukrainians.
As the war grinds on and Russia’s battlefield gains remain “uneven” and “incremental,” according to the Pentagon’s latest assessment, several of its high-ranking commanders have been sacked. Among them, according to the British Ministry of Defense, are Lt. Gen. Serhiy Kisel, who presided over the 1st Guards Tank Army’s failed effort to capture the northeastern city of Kharkiv, and Vice Adm. Igor Osipov, who was in charge of Russia’s Black Sea fleet when Ukrainian forces sank its flagship, the Moskva. The humiliating blow to Russia’s navy was carried out using the Neptune anti-ship missiles that Ukraine makes. Since then, officials in Kyiv have stepped up their requests for similar weapons from Western partners.
Citing the latest U.S. intelligence assessments of the war, a senior Defense Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, affirmed that “Russian commanders at various levels have been relieved of their duties.” Pentagon officials, this person said, want to be cautious in making predictions about the war’s next phase, but they are encouraged that Ukrainian units have not faced the morale setbacks that plague the Russians.
Russia retains considerable combat power available in Ukraine, the U.S. defense official warned, but “you’ve got to have the will to fight, you have to have good leadership, you have to have command and control.” Russia, he said, is “suffering” as a result of these and other shortcomings.
Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia have caused the country’s transport and shipping logistics to be “practically broken,” Russia’s transport minister said Saturday, a rare admission of problems.
But its defense minister asserted that its military had destroyed a large number of weapons that were supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries. A Pentagon spokesperson told The Washington Post that the United States had no comment on Russia’s claim.
Russia also stepped up its political campaign, permanently banning nearly 1,000 Americans, including President Biden and Vice President Harris, from entering the country. The list of those banned included a wide range of officials and citizens, including lawmakers who have died and actor Morgan Freeman.
The United States continues to send billions of dollars in military equipment to Ukraine, including heavy artillery, drones and antitank missiles. President Biden on Saturday signed a $40 billion package of new military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
Although Putin has deployed more than 100 battalion tactical groups into Ukraine, each numbering between 500 and 800 personnel, they have made little headway in Donbas, U.S. intelligence shows. There is evidence that the Russian military has divided some units, dispatching smaller combat teams into villages and hamlets there. Doing so, the Pentagon assessed, makes sense as Putin pursues smaller localized goals. But Russia has struggled to hold ground, with its forces sometimes ceding control back to Ukraine within days of having seized territory.
Russians attacking in smaller units, Pentagon says
In the south, Russia has secured two significant victories, taking control of Mariupol, a major port city, and the smaller city of Kherson. Micholeiv, home to nearly 500,000 people before the war, has been an unattainable objective, however, despite weeks of heavy fighting nearby.
Scott Boston, a former U.S. Army officer who studies the Ukraine war for Rand Corp., said it appears there are massive morale problems within the Russian military, undermining Moscow’s goals. He cited the refusal of some units to carry out orders, as well as Russia’s failure to adequately equip and feed its forces.
“Once it has been abundantly demonstrated that they don’t give a crap about their people, they get it,” Boston said of Russian soldiers. “It’s hard not to notice.”
Russia has seized only a couple kilometers per day in Donbas in recent weeks, according to the Pentagon. At that rate, Boston surmised, the offensive could continue for a year and “there will still be a lot of Ukraine left,” even as Russian military fatalities continue to mount.
“That’s just not a serious proposition,” Boston said.
Russian leaders may realize their military campaign is floundering but still reluctant to acknowledge they are losing the war, he added.
Earlier this month, dozens of Russian combat vehicles were destroyed by Ukrainian forces as the Russians attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in Donbas. The attack is believed to have killed hundreds of Russian troops, and appeared to highlight their continued failings to carry out basic combat maneuvers.
Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Russian troops have been bedeviled both by their own tactical blunders and the Ukrainian’s potent capabilities that have contributed to routs like the deadly crossing near Severodonetsk.
River crossings require favorable terrain and construction of pontoon bridges by military engineers. They are inherently dangerous, Lee said, and the Ukrainian military probably anticipated likely crossing points and logged their coordinates for future attacks. Their surveillance drones allowed artillery units to observe where rounds were falling and then guided them onto Russian personnel.
A grave mistake, Lee said, was the failure of Russian commanders to send smaller numbers of troops across the river. Instead, they bunched them together. The mistake cost the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade dearly, according to an analysis from the Institute of the Study of War, with an estimated 485 casualties and the loss of 80 pieces of equipment.
“It’s an indication there are leadership problems still,” Lee said of the botched attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces nearby.
It’s hard to say how long Russia may keep its offensive going, said Boston, the Rand Corp. analyst. Even after the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers, he said, Russia could continue to lob artillery rounds from a distance for some time.
Still, the trajectory of the conflict perplexes him. Russia defeated Georgian forces in a five-day war in 2008, but the conflict exposed failures within the Russian military, including an inability to quickly adapt when something goes wrong. Moscow set out to reform its military after that conflict, Boston said, and demonstrated improvement in others.
“You just get this feeling like they’ve abandoned everything they’ve tried to learn over the last 10 years and reverted to an older style that they’re more comfortable with,” Boston said. “Frankly, the Red Army in 1944 was more capable of fire and maneuver than a lot of what we’ve seen from this Russian military, and I don’t understand why.”
with the clear implication that only Putin stands in the way of a reasonable negotiated settlement to this mess.
Russia tries to rebound in Ukraine as prospects for victory fade
Published May 21, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
The Russian military, mired in a war with no end in sight, is attempting to resuscitate its sputtering offensive in Ukraine, firing commanders, splitting combat units into smaller formations, and redoubling its reliance on artillery and other long-range weapons.
The shift comes nearly three months after Russian and American officials alike predicted a quick and decisive victory for Moscow. After the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers and an avalanche of failures since the invasion began Feb. 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin has narrowed his objectives in a campaign viewed as unsustainable, unrealistic — and likely unwinnable.
That assessment is shared by an array of observers, including Western intelligence officials and independent analysts who have tracked the war closely. Russia, said Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, is losing in Ukraine militarily, politically and morally.
“When we look at the battlefield, Russia’s conventional capacity is already overstretched,” Marran said. “The losses in Russian manpower and equipment are not sustainable at the same operations tempo that we have seen so far.”
Unless Russia launches a full-scale mobilization of its military, Marran said, it has “no remedy in sight.” And while it appears that “some sense of reality has kicked in” among Russian military leaders, Putin himself remains intent on controlling everything from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to the western port city of Odessa and Transnistria, a breakaway republic in neighboring Moldova.
“We might be seeing a continuing military campaign that is, to a degree, detached from what is realistic, from what might be called smart or feasible in the long term,” Marran said. The Estonians had long predicted, even before the invasion, that Russia would face significant resistance from the Ukrainians.
As the war grinds on and Russia’s battlefield gains remain “uneven” and “incremental,” according to the Pentagon’s latest assessment, several of its high-ranking commanders have been sacked. Among them, according to the British Ministry of Defense, are Lt. Gen. Serhiy Kisel, who presided over the 1st Guards Tank Army’s failed effort to capture the northeastern city of Kharkiv, and Vice Adm. Igor Osipov, who was in charge of Russia’s Black Sea fleet when Ukrainian forces sank its flagship, the Moskva. The humiliating blow to Russia’s navy was carried out using the Neptune anti-ship missiles that Ukraine makes. Since then, officials in Kyiv have stepped up their requests for similar weapons from Western partners.
Citing the latest U.S. intelligence assessments of the war, a senior Defense Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, affirmed that “Russian commanders at various levels have been relieved of their duties.” Pentagon officials, this person said, want to be cautious in making predictions about the war’s next phase, but they are encouraged that Ukrainian units have not faced the morale setbacks that plague the Russians.
Russia retains considerable combat power available in Ukraine, the U.S. defense official warned, but “you’ve got to have the will to fight, you have to have good leadership, you have to have command and control.” Russia, he said, is “suffering” as a result of these and other shortcomings.
Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia have caused the country’s transport and shipping logistics to be “practically broken,” Russia’s transport minister said Saturday, a rare admission of problems.
But its defense minister asserted that its military had destroyed a large number of weapons that were supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries. A Pentagon spokesperson told The Washington Post that the United States had no comment on Russia’s claim.
Russia also stepped up its political campaign, permanently banning nearly 1,000 Americans, including President Biden and Vice President Harris, from entering the country. The list of those banned included a wide range of officials and citizens, including lawmakers who have died and actor Morgan Freeman.
The United States continues to send billions of dollars in military equipment to Ukraine, including heavy artillery, drones and antitank missiles. President Biden on Saturday signed a $40 billion package of new military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
Although Putin has deployed more than 100 battalion tactical groups into Ukraine, each numbering between 500 and 800 personnel, they have made little headway in Donbas, U.S. intelligence shows. There is evidence that the Russian military has divided some units, dispatching smaller combat teams into villages and hamlets there. Doing so, the Pentagon assessed, makes sense as Putin pursues smaller localized goals. But Russia has struggled to hold ground, with its forces sometimes ceding control back to Ukraine within days of having seized territory.
Russians attacking in smaller units, Pentagon says
In the south, Russia has secured two significant victories, taking control of Mariupol, a major port city, and the smaller city of Kherson. Micholeiv, home to nearly 500,000 people before the war, has been an unattainable objective, however, despite weeks of heavy fighting nearby.
Scott Boston, a former U.S. Army officer who studies the Ukraine war for Rand Corp., said it appears there are massive morale problems within the Russian military, undermining Moscow’s goals. He cited the refusal of some units to carry out orders, as well as Russia’s failure to adequately equip and feed its forces.
“Once it has been abundantly demonstrated that they don’t give a crap about their people, they get it,” Boston said of Russian soldiers. “It’s hard not to notice.”
Russia has seized only a couple kilometers per day in Donbas in recent weeks, according to the Pentagon. At that rate, Boston surmised, the offensive could continue for a year and “there will still be a lot of Ukraine left,” even as Russian military fatalities continue to mount.
“That’s just not a serious proposition,” Boston said.
Russian leaders may realize their military campaign is floundering but still reluctant to acknowledge they are losing the war, he added.
Earlier this month, dozens of Russian combat vehicles were destroyed by Ukrainian forces as the Russians attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in Donbas. The attack is believed to have killed hundreds of Russian troops, and appeared to highlight their continued failings to carry out basic combat maneuvers.
Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Russian troops have been bedeviled both by their own tactical blunders and the Ukrainian’s potent capabilities that have contributed to routs like the deadly crossing near Severodonetsk.
River crossings require favorable terrain and construction of pontoon bridges by military engineers. They are inherently dangerous, Lee said, and the Ukrainian military probably anticipated likely crossing points and logged their coordinates for future attacks. Their surveillance drones allowed artillery units to observe where rounds were falling and then guided them onto Russian personnel.
A grave mistake, Lee said, was the failure of Russian commanders to send smaller numbers of troops across the river. Instead, they bunched them together. The mistake cost the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade dearly, according to an analysis from the Institute of the Study of War, with an estimated 485 casualties and the loss of 80 pieces of equipment.
“It’s an indication there are leadership problems still,” Lee said of the botched attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces nearby.
It’s hard to say how long Russia may keep its offensive going, said Boston, the Rand Corp. analyst. Even after the deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers, he said, Russia could continue to lob artillery rounds from a distance for some time.
Still, the trajectory of the conflict perplexes him. Russia defeated Georgian forces in a five-day war in 2008, but the conflict exposed failures within the Russian military, including an inability to quickly adapt when something goes wrong. Moscow set out to reform its military after that conflict, Boston said, and demonstrated improvement in others.
“You just get this feeling like they’ve abandoned everything they’ve tried to learn over the last 10 years and reverted to an older style that they’re more comfortable with,” Boston said. “Frankly, the Red Army in 1944 was more capable of fire and maneuver than a lot of what we’ve seen from this Russian military, and I don’t understand why.”
Zagdid
Veteran Member
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Russian Media Says Head Of Azov In Custody After 2,439 Total Fighters Surrender At Steel Plant
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, MAY 21, 2022 - 02:00 PM
Late Friday Russia's Defense Ministry announced that the last Ukrainian fighters holed up in the giant Azovstal steelworks plant emerged, days after there were reports that top Azov commanders still holding out.
The ministry said it counted 2,439 defenders had emerged and surrendered over the past few days. The final holdout group that was last to come out was tallied at 531. The Russian military's now total control over the sprawling plant and city of Mariupol is considered the be its greatest victory over three months of war.
The final 500+ came out Friday, after Azov regiment commander Denys Prokopenko giving the order to stop defending the city. "The higher military command has given the order to save the lives of the soldiers of our garrison and to stop defending the city." Prokopenko had said in a video posted to Telegram.
The Ukrainian side has presented it as an end to the "combat mission" while Moscow emphasized the Azov militants, who are neo-Nazi in ideology, were defeated and surrendered. Prokopenko those under him to preserve "life and health ... and stop defending the city."
Russia announced that "The territory of the Azovstal metallurgical plant … has been completely liberated." Further, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed President Putin of the city's complete 'liberation'.
Crucially, there are Russian and other international press reports saying that the head of Azov is now in Russian military custody: "The Russian Defense Ministry also confirmed the surrender of Denis Prokopenko, the commander of the so-called Azov battalion - a far-right military unit of neo-Nazi volunteers operating in Ukraine as a reserve force of the country's Armed Forces," according to the reports.
Center: Azov Commander Denys Prokopenko
Though there's been little in the way of confirmation, Russia's Channel One correspondent Irina Kuksenkova said that Azov leaders Denys Prokopenko, Sviatoslav Palamar and Serhiy "Volyna" (Ukrainian Marine commander) have now all surrendered.
The Guardian wrote the following of at least one of these high-level commanders:
A number of Ukraine war observers have noted that there's yet to be visual proof or confirmation, including video, of Prokopenko's arrest by Russian forces. Additionally there's speculation he may still be in the plant, or seeking to escape past Russian lines.
Meanwhile, Western mainstream media has remained silent on the fate of the Azov leaders - likely also as few or none of its correspondents are on the ground at Azovstal, and Kiev has yet to confirm whether or not Prokopenko and others are now in Russian detention.
i would want a second source for this but...
Geez everyone knows its after 1959 to be the middle ages. Everything before that is the pre-playstacean era.
vector7
Dot Collector
US Drawing Up Plans To Sink Russia's Black Sea Fleet: Ukrainian Official
How long do you think it would take before for such an attack would prompt Russia to take out our satellites?
And you know what that means...either we sue for peace immediately, or full-on Armageddon will unfold in in a matter of hours.
Thus, it doesn't sound like a smart move.
View: https://twitter.com/JamesKroeger5/status/1528198096341155841?t=c_RiJRJbiyN88oJ-0-wcAg&s=19
How long do you think it would take before for such an attack would prompt Russia to take out our satellites?
And you know what that means...either we sue for peace immediately, or full-on Armageddon will unfold in in a matter of hours.
Thus, it doesn't sound like a smart move.
View: https://twitter.com/JamesKroeger5/status/1528198096341155841?t=c_RiJRJbiyN88oJ-0-wcAg&s=19
Middle age implies there are 3 ages. Since the average lifespan in the US is 78, three ages would each be 26 years.
So consider that half of 26 is 13. And the average human requires the life support system of an adult from birth to age 13 (and if you think your teenagers actually need you, just ask them).
And if you subtract 13 from age 78, you arrive at age 65 which is where the US government has decided you are qualified to retire. It is also noteworthy that from age 65 to 78, you proceed in reverse from the ability to care for yourself to needing someone to feed you and change your diaper.
Now, if you want to live in a world defined by middle age, then you need to realize that when your child turns 27 and is still living in the basement, then you are supporting a middle aged freeloader. And if you are 53, you are elderly and you better hope you are well established in your retirement plans.
The cutoff for middle age is 52.
Now, back to World War Z for your amusement.
I seem to have read from more than one ‘credible source’ Hunters laptop was a Russian hoax, the Covid did not originate in a lab in China, masks protect you against a virus, and the last election was the fairest and best run one ever.
So there is that.
Anything is possible but just because many of the same sources with the same beliefs reporting to people who want to believe the narrative that supports their beliefs and views, repeating information does not in and by itself does not create truth.
The hardest thing to do is go outside of our own bubbles and try to find truth.
Some claims from Russian side and Ukrainian side are so over the top to be discarded as most likely BS. Neither side is wholly evil or saintly in this war.
How can this be true and claims of western individuals captured both be true? At least they can come up with a consistent line.
EMICT
Veteran Member
Russia Rewrites the Art of Hybrid War
PEPE ESCOBAR • MAY 20, 2022
Hybrid War is being fought predominantly in the economic/financial battleground – and the pain dial for the collective West will only go up.
The ironclad fictional “narrative” imposed all across NATOstan is that Ukraine is “winning”.
So why would weapons peddler retrofitted as Pentagon head Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin literally beg since late February to have his phone calls answered by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, only to have his wish finally granted?
It’s now confirmed by one of my top intel sources. The call was a direct consequence of panic. The United States Government (USG) by all means wants to scotch the detailed Russian investigation – and accumulation of evidence – on the US bioweapon labs in Ukraine, as I outlined in a previous column.
This phone call happened exactly after an official Russian statement to the UN Security Council on May 13: we will use articles 5 and 6 of the Convention on the Prohibition of Bioweapons to investigate the Pentagon’s biological “experiments” in Ukraine.
That was reiterated by Under Secretary-General of the UN in charge of disarmament, Thomas Markram, even as all ambassadors of NATO member countries predictably denied the collected evidence as “Russian disinformation”.
Shoigu could see the call coming eons away. Reuters, merely quoting the proverbial “Pentagon official”, spun that the allegedly one-hour-long call led to nothing. Nonsense. Austin, according to the Americans, demanded a “ceasefire” – which must have originated a Siberian cat smirk on Shoigu’s face.
Shoigu knows exactly which way the wind is blowing on the ground – for Ukrainian Armed Forces and UkroNazis alike. It’s not only the Azovstal debacle – and Kiev’s all-around army breakdown.
After the fall of Popasnaya – the crucial, most fortified Ukrainian stronghold in Donbass – the Russians and Donetsk/Luhansk forces have breached defenses along four different vectors to north, northwest, west and south. What’s left of the Ukrainian front is crumbling – fast, with a massive cauldron subdivided in a maze of mini-cauldrons: a military disaster the USG cannot possibly spin.
Now, in parallel, we can also expect full exposure – on overdrive – of the Pentagon bioweapons racket. The only “offer you can’t refuse” left to the USG would be to present something tangible to the Russians to avoid a full investigation.
That’s not gonna happen. Moscow is fully aware that going public with illegal work on banned biological weapons is an existential threat to the US Deep State. Especially when documents seized by the Russians show that Big Pharma – via Pfizer, Moderna, Merck and Gilead – was involved in several “experiments”. Fully exposing the whole maze, from the start, was one of Putin’s stated objectives.
More “military-technical measures”?
Three days after the UN presentation, the board of the Russian Foreign Ministry held a special session to discuss “the radically changed geopolitical realities that have developed as a result of the hybrid war against our country unleashed by the West – under the pretext of the situation in Ukraine – unprecedented in scale and ferocity, including the revival in Europe of a racist worldview in the form of cave Russophobia, an open course for the ‘abolition’ of Russia and everything Russian.”
So it’s no wonder “the aggressive revisionist course of the West requires a radical revision of Russia’s relations with unfriendly states.”
We should expect “a new edition of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation” coming out soon.
This new Foreign Policy Concept will elaborate on what Foreign Minister Lavrov once again stressed at a meeting honoring the 30th Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy: the US has declared an all-round Hybrid War on Russia. The only thing lacking, as it stands, is a formal declaration of war.
Beyond the disinformation fog veiling the application of Finland and Sweden – call them the Dumb and Dumber Nordics – to join NATO, what really matters is another instance of declaration of war: the prospect of missiles with nuclear warheads stationed really close to Russian borders. Moscow already warned the Finns and Swedes, politely, that this would be dealt with it via “military-technical measures”. That’s exactly what Washington – and NATO minions – were told would happen before the start of Operation Z.
And of course this goes much deeper, involving Romania and Poland as well. Bucharest already has Aegis Ashore missile launchers capable of sending Tomahawks with nuclear warheads at Russia, while Warsaw is receiving the same systems. To cut to the chase, if there’s no de-escalation, they will all eventually end up receiving Mr. Khinzal’s hypersonic business card.
NATO member Turkey, meanwhile, plays a deft game, issuing its own list of demands before even considering the Nordics’ gamble. Ankara wants no more sanctions on its purchase of S-400s and on top if be re-included in the F-35 program. It will be fascinating to watch what His Master’s Voice will come up with to seduce the Sultan. The Nordics engaged in a self-correcting “clear unequivocal stance” against the PKK and the PYD is clearly not enough for the Sultan, who relished muddying the waters even more as he stressed that buying Russian energy is a “strategic” issue for Turkey.
Counteracting financial Shock’n Awe
By now it’s evidently clear that open-ended Operation Z targets unipolar Hegemon power, the infinite expansion of vassalized NATO, and the world’s financial architecture – an intertwined combo that largely transcends the Ukraine battleground.
Serial Western sanctions package hysteria ended up triggering Russia’s so far quite successful counter-financial moves. Hybrid War is being fought predominantly in the economic/financial battleground – and the pain dial for the collective West will only go up: inflation, higher commodity prices, breakdown of supply chains, exploding cost of living, impoverishment of the middle classes, and unfortunately for great swathes of the Global South, outright poverty and starvation.
In the near future, as insider evidence surfaces, a convincing case will be made that the Russian leadership even gamed the Western financial gamble/blatant robbery of over $300 billion in Russian reserves.
This implies that already years ago – let’s say, at least from 2016, based on analyses by Sergey Glazyev – the Kremlin knew this would inevitably happen. As trust remains a rigid foundation of a monetary system, the Russian leadership may have calculated that the Americans and their vassals, driven by blind Russophobia, would play all their cards at once when push came to shove – utterly demolishing global trust on “their” system.
Because of Russia’s infinite natural resources, the Kremlin may have factored that the nation would eventually survive the financial Shock’n Awe – and even profit from it (ruble appreciation included). The reward is just too sweet: opening the way to The Doomed Dollar – without having to ask Mr. Sarmat to present his nuclear business card.
Russia could even entertain the hypothesis of getting a mighty return on those stolen funds. A great deal of Western assets – totaling as much as $500 billion – may be nationalized if the Kremlin so chooses.
So Russia is winning not only militarily but also to a large extent geopolitically – 88% of the planet does not align with NATOstan hysteria – and of course in the economic/financial sphere.
This in fact is the key Hybrid War battleground where the collective West is being checkmated. One of the next key steps will be an expanded BRICS coordinating their dollar-bypassing strategy.
None of the above should overshadow the still to be measured interconnected repercussions of the mass surrender of Azov neo-Nazis at UkroNazistan Central in Azovstal.
The mythical Western “narrative” about freedom-fighting heroes imposed since February by NATOstan media collapsed with a single blow. Cue to the thunderous silence all over the Western infowar front, where no mutts even attempted to sing that crappy, “winning” Eurovision song.
What happened, in essence, is that the creme de la creme of NATO-trained neo-Nazis, “advised” by top Western experts, weaponized to death, entrenched in deep concrete anti-nuclear bunkers in the bowels of Azovstal, was either pulverized or forced to surrender like cornered rats.
Novorossiya as a game-changer
The Russian General Staff will be adjusting their tactics for the major follow-up in Donbass – as the best Russian analysts and war correspondents incessantly debate. They will have to face an inescapable problem: as much as the Russian methodically grind down the – disaggregated – Ukrainian Army in Donbass, a new NATO army is being trained and weaponized in western Ukraine.
So there is a real danger that depending on the ultimate long-term aims of Operation Z – which are only shared by the Russian military leadership – Moscow runs the risk of encountering, in a few months, a mobile and better weaponized incarnation of the demoralized army it is now destroying. And this is exactly what the Americans mean by “weakening” Russia.
As it stands, there are several reasons why a new Novorossiya reality may turn out to be a positive game-changer for Russia. Among them:
This would be a logical conclusion for a Special Military Operation focused on precision strikes and a deliberate emphasis on sparing civilian lives and infrastructure while methodically disabling the Ukrainian military/logistics spectrum. All of that takes time. Yet Russia may have all the time in the world, as we all keep listening to the sound of the collective West spiraling down.
(Republished from Strategic Culture Foundation by permission of author or representative)
PEPE ESCOBAR • MAY 20, 2022
Hybrid War is being fought predominantly in the economic/financial battleground – and the pain dial for the collective West will only go up.
The ironclad fictional “narrative” imposed all across NATOstan is that Ukraine is “winning”.
So why would weapons peddler retrofitted as Pentagon head Lloyd “Raytheon” Austin literally beg since late February to have his phone calls answered by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, only to have his wish finally granted?
It’s now confirmed by one of my top intel sources. The call was a direct consequence of panic. The United States Government (USG) by all means wants to scotch the detailed Russian investigation – and accumulation of evidence – on the US bioweapon labs in Ukraine, as I outlined in a previous column.
This phone call happened exactly after an official Russian statement to the UN Security Council on May 13: we will use articles 5 and 6 of the Convention on the Prohibition of Bioweapons to investigate the Pentagon’s biological “experiments” in Ukraine.
That was reiterated by Under Secretary-General of the UN in charge of disarmament, Thomas Markram, even as all ambassadors of NATO member countries predictably denied the collected evidence as “Russian disinformation”.
Shoigu could see the call coming eons away. Reuters, merely quoting the proverbial “Pentagon official”, spun that the allegedly one-hour-long call led to nothing. Nonsense. Austin, according to the Americans, demanded a “ceasefire” – which must have originated a Siberian cat smirk on Shoigu’s face.
Shoigu knows exactly which way the wind is blowing on the ground – for Ukrainian Armed Forces and UkroNazis alike. It’s not only the Azovstal debacle – and Kiev’s all-around army breakdown.
After the fall of Popasnaya – the crucial, most fortified Ukrainian stronghold in Donbass – the Russians and Donetsk/Luhansk forces have breached defenses along four different vectors to north, northwest, west and south. What’s left of the Ukrainian front is crumbling – fast, with a massive cauldron subdivided in a maze of mini-cauldrons: a military disaster the USG cannot possibly spin.
Now, in parallel, we can also expect full exposure – on overdrive – of the Pentagon bioweapons racket. The only “offer you can’t refuse” left to the USG would be to present something tangible to the Russians to avoid a full investigation.
That’s not gonna happen. Moscow is fully aware that going public with illegal work on banned biological weapons is an existential threat to the US Deep State. Especially when documents seized by the Russians show that Big Pharma – via Pfizer, Moderna, Merck and Gilead – was involved in several “experiments”. Fully exposing the whole maze, from the start, was one of Putin’s stated objectives.
More “military-technical measures”?
Three days after the UN presentation, the board of the Russian Foreign Ministry held a special session to discuss “the radically changed geopolitical realities that have developed as a result of the hybrid war against our country unleashed by the West – under the pretext of the situation in Ukraine – unprecedented in scale and ferocity, including the revival in Europe of a racist worldview in the form of cave Russophobia, an open course for the ‘abolition’ of Russia and everything Russian.”
So it’s no wonder “the aggressive revisionist course of the West requires a radical revision of Russia’s relations with unfriendly states.”
We should expect “a new edition of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation” coming out soon.
This new Foreign Policy Concept will elaborate on what Foreign Minister Lavrov once again stressed at a meeting honoring the 30th Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy: the US has declared an all-round Hybrid War on Russia. The only thing lacking, as it stands, is a formal declaration of war.
Beyond the disinformation fog veiling the application of Finland and Sweden – call them the Dumb and Dumber Nordics – to join NATO, what really matters is another instance of declaration of war: the prospect of missiles with nuclear warheads stationed really close to Russian borders. Moscow already warned the Finns and Swedes, politely, that this would be dealt with it via “military-technical measures”. That’s exactly what Washington – and NATO minions – were told would happen before the start of Operation Z.
And of course this goes much deeper, involving Romania and Poland as well. Bucharest already has Aegis Ashore missile launchers capable of sending Tomahawks with nuclear warheads at Russia, while Warsaw is receiving the same systems. To cut to the chase, if there’s no de-escalation, they will all eventually end up receiving Mr. Khinzal’s hypersonic business card.
NATO member Turkey, meanwhile, plays a deft game, issuing its own list of demands before even considering the Nordics’ gamble. Ankara wants no more sanctions on its purchase of S-400s and on top if be re-included in the F-35 program. It will be fascinating to watch what His Master’s Voice will come up with to seduce the Sultan. The Nordics engaged in a self-correcting “clear unequivocal stance” against the PKK and the PYD is clearly not enough for the Sultan, who relished muddying the waters even more as he stressed that buying Russian energy is a “strategic” issue for Turkey.
Counteracting financial Shock’n Awe
By now it’s evidently clear that open-ended Operation Z targets unipolar Hegemon power, the infinite expansion of vassalized NATO, and the world’s financial architecture – an intertwined combo that largely transcends the Ukraine battleground.
Serial Western sanctions package hysteria ended up triggering Russia’s so far quite successful counter-financial moves. Hybrid War is being fought predominantly in the economic/financial battleground – and the pain dial for the collective West will only go up: inflation, higher commodity prices, breakdown of supply chains, exploding cost of living, impoverishment of the middle classes, and unfortunately for great swathes of the Global South, outright poverty and starvation.
In the near future, as insider evidence surfaces, a convincing case will be made that the Russian leadership even gamed the Western financial gamble/blatant robbery of over $300 billion in Russian reserves.
This implies that already years ago – let’s say, at least from 2016, based on analyses by Sergey Glazyev – the Kremlin knew this would inevitably happen. As trust remains a rigid foundation of a monetary system, the Russian leadership may have calculated that the Americans and their vassals, driven by blind Russophobia, would play all their cards at once when push came to shove – utterly demolishing global trust on “their” system.
Because of Russia’s infinite natural resources, the Kremlin may have factored that the nation would eventually survive the financial Shock’n Awe – and even profit from it (ruble appreciation included). The reward is just too sweet: opening the way to The Doomed Dollar – without having to ask Mr. Sarmat to present his nuclear business card.
Russia could even entertain the hypothesis of getting a mighty return on those stolen funds. A great deal of Western assets – totaling as much as $500 billion – may be nationalized if the Kremlin so chooses.
So Russia is winning not only militarily but also to a large extent geopolitically – 88% of the planet does not align with NATOstan hysteria – and of course in the economic/financial sphere.
This in fact is the key Hybrid War battleground where the collective West is being checkmated. One of the next key steps will be an expanded BRICS coordinating their dollar-bypassing strategy.
None of the above should overshadow the still to be measured interconnected repercussions of the mass surrender of Azov neo-Nazis at UkroNazistan Central in Azovstal.
The mythical Western “narrative” about freedom-fighting heroes imposed since February by NATOstan media collapsed with a single blow. Cue to the thunderous silence all over the Western infowar front, where no mutts even attempted to sing that crappy, “winning” Eurovision song.
What happened, in essence, is that the creme de la creme of NATO-trained neo-Nazis, “advised” by top Western experts, weaponized to death, entrenched in deep concrete anti-nuclear bunkers in the bowels of Azovstal, was either pulverized or forced to surrender like cornered rats.
Novorossiya as a game-changer
The Russian General Staff will be adjusting their tactics for the major follow-up in Donbass – as the best Russian analysts and war correspondents incessantly debate. They will have to face an inescapable problem: as much as the Russian methodically grind down the – disaggregated – Ukrainian Army in Donbass, a new NATO army is being trained and weaponized in western Ukraine.
So there is a real danger that depending on the ultimate long-term aims of Operation Z – which are only shared by the Russian military leadership – Moscow runs the risk of encountering, in a few months, a mobile and better weaponized incarnation of the demoralized army it is now destroying. And this is exactly what the Americans mean by “weakening” Russia.
As it stands, there are several reasons why a new Novorossiya reality may turn out to be a positive game-changer for Russia. Among them:
- The economic/logistics complex from Kharkov to Odessa – along Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev – is intimately linked with Russian industry.
- By controlling the Sea of Azov – already a de facto “Russian lake” – and subsequently the Black Sea, Russia will have total control of export routes for the region’s world-class grain production. Extra bonus: total exclusion of NATO.
- All of the above suggests a concerted drive for the development of an integrated agro-heavy industry complex – with the extra bonus of serious tourism potential.
This would be a logical conclusion for a Special Military Operation focused on precision strikes and a deliberate emphasis on sparing civilian lives and infrastructure while methodically disabling the Ukrainian military/logistics spectrum. All of that takes time. Yet Russia may have all the time in the world, as we all keep listening to the sound of the collective West spiraling down.
(Republished from Strategic Culture Foundation by permission of author or representative)
WTSR
Veteran Member
Do you have any official Ukrainian Sources on the number of Ukrainian Soldiers listed as Missing?
jward
passin' thru
I was always taught to treat it like a DV case- knowing there would be a "he said" and "she said" to look for those few things that "they both say" and move only those over to the "maybe" (but no one knows for sure) column.
..Still I continue to miss the point of the angst, the flouncing around w/ the vapours while shrilly decrying the disinformation, the
and rhetorical rants on what amounts to "water is wet" insights, re: knowing or not knowing "the facts" on the ground of a war a world away.
While I see the value in recording it all, just to have an honest autopsy of the public square in this pivotal point in time, the only thing I see us actually gleaning is broad strokes warning re: when the engagements were going hot, or when we might see the west/nato become openly involved, and the subsequent risk of sunshine raining down.
Not to say that the human cost and tragedy is not worth mourning, or that part of being a civilized world is not pausing and taking note of the senseless squandering of blood and treasure. By and large tho, this incessant obsession with the colour of ONE leaf on ONE tree, and thus being distracted from the fact that they're burning the whole forest down around us, is one of the most perplexing things I've ever seen. :: shrug ::
..Still I continue to miss the point of the angst, the flouncing around w/ the vapours while shrilly decrying the disinformation, the
and rhetorical rants on what amounts to "water is wet" insights, re: knowing or not knowing "the facts" on the ground of a war a world away.While I see the value in recording it all, just to have an honest autopsy of the public square in this pivotal point in time, the only thing I see us actually gleaning is broad strokes warning re: when the engagements were going hot, or when we might see the west/nato become openly involved, and the subsequent risk of sunshine raining down.
Not to say that the human cost and tragedy is not worth mourning, or that part of being a civilized world is not pausing and taking note of the senseless squandering of blood and treasure. By and large tho, this incessant obsession with the colour of ONE leaf on ONE tree, and thus being distracted from the fact that they're burning the whole forest down around us, is one of the most perplexing things I've ever seen. :: shrug ::
jward
passin' thru
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
14h
Tis will add 10km to the reach of Ukrainian M777 155mm guns (to 40km), plus three meter accuracy.
View: https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1528183103302377472?s=20&t=8bKlG_-ipPc4rkSb1v3YdA
There is that indeed. My least trusted sources these days are our very own western ones, which is a sad but necessary state of affairs for at least the time being.
I maybe shouldn't even mentioned that but it's been a possibility which has consistently poked its ugly head into my mind about this even uglier mess. I hope it's untrue. And that's not only for their (NATO soldiers') sakes but also to hope that someday the actual truth is allowed to surface. There's a lot of ugliness still to be discovered in those bunkers, I think, and a suicidal finish in order to cover up inconvenient truths which range anywhere from civilian massacres to heavy NATO involvement to a particularly nasty US-sponsored bioweapons lab/stash - none of them are out of the realm of possibility.
There could even be a tactical nuke down there which could vaporize the whole complex and bring it down into a sinkhole which would be forever filled by the Black Sea. In this case, I shudder to think of the headlines which will have already been written about how Russia did it and how the nuclear conflict between Russia and all of NATO began with that "Russkie provocation".
In spite of the general tenor and subsequent spin of the war's events at this point in time, we could still be treading the finest, sharpest edge of Occam's Razor of our lifetimes, it appears.
jward
passin' thru
Live updatesLive updates,
News|Russia-Ukraine war
Ukraine-Russia live news: Fears grow for Azovstal POWs
A separatist Russian leader says nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters from the Mariupol steel plant are now prisoners, including 78 women, and will face tribunals.
A local resident walks near a building heavily damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, May 20, 2022 [Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters]
By Sasha Petrova, Mersiha Gadzo and Dalia Hatuqa
Published On 21 May 202221 May 2022
Keep reading
list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Russia vows ‘countermeasures’ as NATO looks set to expand
list 2 of 4G7 countries to provide $19.8bn in economic aid to Ukraine
list 3 of 4As the Ukraine war rages, Montenegro’s juggling act gets harder
list 4 of 4Germany, Qatar sign energy partnership agreement
end of list
Here are all the latest updates:
10 mins ago (15:31 GMT)
France sees EU membership for Ukraine in ’15 or 20 years’
A bid by Ukraine to join the EU could not be finalised for “15 or 20 years,” France’s Europe minister has said, pouring cold water on Zelenskyy’s hopes for a quick entry in the European block.
“We have to be honest. If you say Ukraine is going to join the EU in six months, or a year or two, you’re lying,” Clement Beaune told Radio J.
“It’s probably in 15 or 20 years, it takes a long time.”
17 mins ago (15:24 GMT)
Senegal president says he will visit Moscow and Kyiv in coming weeks
Senegalese President Macky Sall says he would visit Moscow and Kyiv in the coming weeks in his capacity as chairman of the African Union, which he said wanted to see de-escalation in Ukraine and peace through dialogue between the two sides.
“We do not want to be aligned on this conflict, very clearly, we want peace. Even though we condemn the invasion, we’re working for a de-escalation, we’re working for a ceasefire, for dialogue … that is the African position,” Sall said at a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Senegal’s president Macky Sall receives German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the presidential palace in Dakar, Senegal [Ngouda Dione/Reuters]
53 mins ago (14:47 GMT)
Russian shelling in eastern regions continues
In its daily briefing, Russia’s ministry of defence has said that Russian high-precision missiles have hit three command posts and 13 areas where Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment were located in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. It also said four ammunition deposits were hit in the Donbas.
In the southern region of Mykolaiv, read the ministry’s update on Telegram, Russian rockets hit a mobile anti-drone system near the settlement of Hannivka.
1 hour ago (14:30 GMT)
Ukraine extends martial law for three more months
The Ukrainian parliament has extended the period of martial law and general mobilization for an additional 90 days,
until August 23, a sign that Kyiv expects many more months of fighting.
Martial law gives the military expanded powers and restricts civil liberties such as the right to demonstrate. Able-bodied men aged 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving the country and urged to join the fight against the Russians.
President Zelenskyy first imposed the drastic measures across the country on February 24, just hours after Russia invaded the country.
1 hour ago (14:19 GMT)
Zelenskyy promises reciprocal rights for Poles in Ukraine
Polish citizens in Ukraine will be granted the same rights that Ukrainian refugees in Poland are currently receiving, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a visit to Kyiv by his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda.
Poland has granted the right to live and work and claim social security payments to more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2 hours ago (14:03 GMT)
‘Fallen squarely’: Poland shows full support to Ukrainians
Polish President Duda, the first head of state to address the Ukrainian parliament since war started, has shown full support to Ukrainians, Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi has said.
“Unlike countries such as Germany and France – that have traditionally strong political and business ties to Russia and were trying to strike a far more balanced and diplomatic approach in terms of dealing with Russia and Ukraine – Poland has fallen squarely on the side of Ukraine because its leaders know that if Ukraine falls then suddenly the front line becomes the Polish border,” Basravi said.
Duda’s visit comes as Kyiv is resuming its profile as the country’s diplomatic hub. Embassies, such as the American and the Swiss one, have reopened in the past weeks and a flurry of European leaders have visited the city.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda gestures during a joint news conference with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, amid Russia’s invasion, in Kyiv, Ukraine [Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters]
3 hours ago (12:34 GMT)
Polish president in Kyiv: Ukrainians are our guests
Duda told Ukrainian parliament members that the “free world today has the face of Ukraine” according to a Ukrainian legislator.
Roman Hryshchuk tweeted a photo of Duda addressing the chamber and quoted him as saying: “Dear Ukrainians, your relatives — wives, parents, children — who were forced to leave for Poland, are not refugees in our country. They are our guests.”
Poland has allowed in approximately 3.5 million Ukrainians, making it the country that has taken the highest number of refugees.
4 hours ago (11:52 GMT)
Russia-Ukraine war looms large on Scholz’s Africa tour
Olaf Scholz will embark on his first trip to Africa as German Chancellor with Russia’s effect on energy prices, food prices and security in the backdrop.
The three-day tour of Senegal, Niger and South Africa kicking off on Sunday comes at a time when Germany is seeking to reduce its heavy reliance on Russia for gas following its invasion of Ukraine.
It could also help explore a gas field in Senegal, a government official said on Friday, as reported by Reuters. Senegal has billions of cubic metres of gas reserves and is expected to become a major gas producer in the region.
5 hours ago (10:48 GMT)
Poland’s president says Ukraine must decide own fate
Only Ukraine has the right to decide its future, Duda has said to parliamentarians in Kyiv.
“Worrying voices have appeared, saying that Ukraine should give in to Putin’s demands. Only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” he said.
The Polish president is the first foreign leader to give an in-person speech to the Ukrainian parliament since Russia’s invasion.
Biden to meet Modi in bid to isolate Russia
US President Joe Biden will meet this week with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Japan, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters as the US President flew from South Korea to Japan.
This comes at a time when the US is working to convince India to distance itself from Russia.
India is a major purchaser of Russian arms, and so far has resisted pressure to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine or join a chorus of states in isolating Russia.
Biden and his Indian counterpart will meet on the sidelines of the summit by the Quad, an informal alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia.
US President Joe Biden arrives at Yokota Air Base in Fussa, Tokyo prefecture on May 22, 2022 [Kazuhiro NOGI/AFP]
6 hours ago (09:53 GMT)
Lithuania set to cut imports of Russian energy
Lithuania will have completely cut imports of Russian energy supplies including oil, electricity and natural gas from Sunday.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Energy said in a statement on Friday that the energy exchange operator Nord Pool had decided to stop trading Russian electricity with its only importer in the Baltic States, Russian utility Inter RAO – meaning the country would no longer be importing any Russian energy.
“Not only is it an extremely important milestone for Lithuania in its journey towards energy independence, but it is also an expression of our solidarity with Ukraine,” Lithuanian energy minister Dainius Kreivys said. “We must stop financing the Russian war machine.”
This move was hailed by Oleksandr Korniyenko, first deputy speaker of Ukraine’s parliament.
6 hours ago (09:37 GMT)
Russians attack Severodonetsk but are pushed back
The eastern city of Severodonetsk has been attacked from four different directions overnight, but the Russians were pushed back, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said on Sunday.
“Severodonetsk was assaulted from four sides at once, but the enemy was repelled and retreated to previous positions,” the presidential morning briefing said.
Seven houses in Severodonetsk and at least 27 houses in surrounding towns and villages were damaged, the statement said.
Severodonetsk and Sloviansk are essential to controlling the Luhansk region.
7 hours ago (08:23 GMT)
Mariupol facing health and sanitation ‘catastrophe’: mayor
The mayor of Mariupol Vadym Boychenko has said that mass burials in shallow graves and the breakdown of sewage systems could lead to a health crisis in the Ukrainian port city.
He added that summer rains threaten to contaminate water sources as he pressed Moscow to allow residents to leave the city safely.
“In addition to the humanitarian catastrophe created by the occupiers and collaborators, the city is on the verge of an outbreak of infectious diseases”, he said on Telegram.
A local resident walks past a building heavily damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, May 20, 2022 [Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters]
8 hours ago (07:54 GMT)
Russia bans more than 960 Americans from entering country
Russia has released a list of 963 Americans who have been “permanently banned” from entering the country in response to US sanctions related to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the top of the list is US President Joe Biden.
On the list also is Hollywood actor Morgan Freeman, 84, who had appeared in a video in 2017 that accused the Russian government of meddling with American democracy.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the people on the list, which include several dead politicians, such as late senator John McCain, “incite Russophobia”.
11 hours ago (05:04 GMT)
Ukraine will likely become ‘federation’: Russian official
A Russian politician and Putin’s appointed representative to the annexed region of Crimea says Ukraine is unlikely to continue to exist in its current form, Russia’s state news agency RIA reports.
Georgy Muradov suggested Ukraine would likely become a federation, or a group of states.
He added that no country that respects itself would tolerate a flagrant violation of the rights of its own people in neighbouring states, invoking the argument Moscow commonly uses for having invaded Ukraine.
“And even more so if these attempts result in outright extermination of people, as happened in recent years with regard to Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, where they lived for centuries in their native land,” he said.
www.aljazeera.com
News|Russia-Ukraine war
Ukraine-Russia live news: Fears grow for Azovstal POWs
A separatist Russian leader says nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters from the Mariupol steel plant are now prisoners, including 78 women, and will face tribunals.
A local resident walks near a building heavily damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, May 20, 2022 [Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters]
By Sasha Petrova, Mersiha Gadzo and Dalia Hatuqa
Published On 21 May 202221 May 2022
- Russian forces intensify their attacks near the city of Severodonetsk, said to be a key target for the success of Moscow’s offensive in capturing the Donbas region.
- Russia’s defence ministry says its forces pounded Ukrainian military targets with airstrikes and artillery in the east and the south, hitting command centres, troops, and ammunition depots.
- Polish President Andrzej Duda visits the Ukrainian capital Kyiv as the first European head of state to do so.
- The Ukrainian parliament passes a bill extending martial law for across the country for an other three months.
- Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country is prepared to exchange its troops who surrendered at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol for Russian prisoners.
- Russian energy giant Gazprom says it has stopped all natural gas supplies to Finland as it has not received payment in roubles.
Keep reading
list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4Russia vows ‘countermeasures’ as NATO looks set to expand
list 2 of 4G7 countries to provide $19.8bn in economic aid to Ukraine
list 3 of 4As the Ukraine war rages, Montenegro’s juggling act gets harder
list 4 of 4Germany, Qatar sign energy partnership agreement
end of list
Here are all the latest updates:
10 mins ago (15:31 GMT)
France sees EU membership for Ukraine in ’15 or 20 years’
A bid by Ukraine to join the EU could not be finalised for “15 or 20 years,” France’s Europe minister has said, pouring cold water on Zelenskyy’s hopes for a quick entry in the European block.
“We have to be honest. If you say Ukraine is going to join the EU in six months, or a year or two, you’re lying,” Clement Beaune told Radio J.
“It’s probably in 15 or 20 years, it takes a long time.”
17 mins ago (15:24 GMT)
Senegal president says he will visit Moscow and Kyiv in coming weeks
Senegalese President Macky Sall says he would visit Moscow and Kyiv in the coming weeks in his capacity as chairman of the African Union, which he said wanted to see de-escalation in Ukraine and peace through dialogue between the two sides.
“We do not want to be aligned on this conflict, very clearly, we want peace. Even though we condemn the invasion, we’re working for a de-escalation, we’re working for a ceasefire, for dialogue … that is the African position,” Sall said at a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
53 mins ago (14:47 GMT)
Russian shelling in eastern regions continues
In its daily briefing, Russia’s ministry of defence has said that Russian high-precision missiles have hit three command posts and 13 areas where Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment were located in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. It also said four ammunition deposits were hit in the Donbas.
In the southern region of Mykolaiv, read the ministry’s update on Telegram, Russian rockets hit a mobile anti-drone system near the settlement of Hannivka.
1 hour ago (14:30 GMT)
Ukraine extends martial law for three more months
The Ukrainian parliament has extended the period of martial law and general mobilization for an additional 90 days,
until August 23, a sign that Kyiv expects many more months of fighting.
Martial law gives the military expanded powers and restricts civil liberties such as the right to demonstrate. Able-bodied men aged 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving the country and urged to join the fight against the Russians.
President Zelenskyy first imposed the drastic measures across the country on February 24, just hours after Russia invaded the country.
1 hour ago (14:19 GMT)
Zelenskyy promises reciprocal rights for Poles in Ukraine
Polish citizens in Ukraine will be granted the same rights that Ukrainian refugees in Poland are currently receiving, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a visit to Kyiv by his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda.
Poland has granted the right to live and work and claim social security payments to more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
2 hours ago (14:03 GMT)
‘Fallen squarely’: Poland shows full support to Ukrainians
Polish President Duda, the first head of state to address the Ukrainian parliament since war started, has shown full support to Ukrainians, Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi has said.
“Unlike countries such as Germany and France – that have traditionally strong political and business ties to Russia and were trying to strike a far more balanced and diplomatic approach in terms of dealing with Russia and Ukraine – Poland has fallen squarely on the side of Ukraine because its leaders know that if Ukraine falls then suddenly the front line becomes the Polish border,” Basravi said.
Duda’s visit comes as Kyiv is resuming its profile as the country’s diplomatic hub. Embassies, such as the American and the Swiss one, have reopened in the past weeks and a flurry of European leaders have visited the city.
3 hours ago (12:34 GMT)
Polish president in Kyiv: Ukrainians are our guests
Duda told Ukrainian parliament members that the “free world today has the face of Ukraine” according to a Ukrainian legislator.
Roman Hryshchuk tweeted a photo of Duda addressing the chamber and quoted him as saying: “Dear Ukrainians, your relatives — wives, parents, children — who were forced to leave for Poland, are not refugees in our country. They are our guests.”
Poland has allowed in approximately 3.5 million Ukrainians, making it the country that has taken the highest number of refugees.
4 hours ago (11:52 GMT)
Russia-Ukraine war looms large on Scholz’s Africa tour
Olaf Scholz will embark on his first trip to Africa as German Chancellor with Russia’s effect on energy prices, food prices and security in the backdrop.
The three-day tour of Senegal, Niger and South Africa kicking off on Sunday comes at a time when Germany is seeking to reduce its heavy reliance on Russia for gas following its invasion of Ukraine.
It could also help explore a gas field in Senegal, a government official said on Friday, as reported by Reuters. Senegal has billions of cubic metres of gas reserves and is expected to become a major gas producer in the region.
5 hours ago (10:48 GMT)
Poland’s president says Ukraine must decide own fate
Only Ukraine has the right to decide its future, Duda has said to parliamentarians in Kyiv.
“Worrying voices have appeared, saying that Ukraine should give in to Putin’s demands. Only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” he said.
The Polish president is the first foreign leader to give an in-person speech to the Ukrainian parliament since Russia’s invasion.
Biden to meet Modi in bid to isolate Russia
US President Joe Biden will meet this week with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Japan, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters as the US President flew from South Korea to Japan.
This comes at a time when the US is working to convince India to distance itself from Russia.
India is a major purchaser of Russian arms, and so far has resisted pressure to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine or join a chorus of states in isolating Russia.
Biden and his Indian counterpart will meet on the sidelines of the summit by the Quad, an informal alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia.
6 hours ago (09:53 GMT)
Lithuania set to cut imports of Russian energy
Lithuania will have completely cut imports of Russian energy supplies including oil, electricity and natural gas from Sunday.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Energy said in a statement on Friday that the energy exchange operator Nord Pool had decided to stop trading Russian electricity with its only importer in the Baltic States, Russian utility Inter RAO – meaning the country would no longer be importing any Russian energy.
“Not only is it an extremely important milestone for Lithuania in its journey towards energy independence, but it is also an expression of our solidarity with Ukraine,” Lithuanian energy minister Dainius Kreivys said. “We must stop financing the Russian war machine.”
This move was hailed by Oleksandr Korniyenko, first deputy speaker of Ukraine’s parliament.
6 hours ago (09:37 GMT)
Russians attack Severodonetsk but are pushed back
The eastern city of Severodonetsk has been attacked from four different directions overnight, but the Russians were pushed back, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said on Sunday.
“Severodonetsk was assaulted from four sides at once, but the enemy was repelled and retreated to previous positions,” the presidential morning briefing said.
Seven houses in Severodonetsk and at least 27 houses in surrounding towns and villages were damaged, the statement said.
Severodonetsk and Sloviansk are essential to controlling the Luhansk region.
7 hours ago (08:23 GMT)
Mariupol facing health and sanitation ‘catastrophe’: mayor
The mayor of Mariupol Vadym Boychenko has said that mass burials in shallow graves and the breakdown of sewage systems could lead to a health crisis in the Ukrainian port city.
He added that summer rains threaten to contaminate water sources as he pressed Moscow to allow residents to leave the city safely.
“In addition to the humanitarian catastrophe created by the occupiers and collaborators, the city is on the verge of an outbreak of infectious diseases”, he said on Telegram.
8 hours ago (07:54 GMT)
Russia bans more than 960 Americans from entering country
Russia has released a list of 963 Americans who have been “permanently banned” from entering the country in response to US sanctions related to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the top of the list is US President Joe Biden.
On the list also is Hollywood actor Morgan Freeman, 84, who had appeared in a video in 2017 that accused the Russian government of meddling with American democracy.
Russia’s foreign ministry said the people on the list, which include several dead politicians, such as late senator John McCain, “incite Russophobia”.
11 hours ago (05:04 GMT)
Ukraine will likely become ‘federation’: Russian official
A Russian politician and Putin’s appointed representative to the annexed region of Crimea says Ukraine is unlikely to continue to exist in its current form, Russia’s state news agency RIA reports.
Georgy Muradov suggested Ukraine would likely become a federation, or a group of states.
He added that no country that respects itself would tolerate a flagrant violation of the rights of its own people in neighbouring states, invoking the argument Moscow commonly uses for having invaded Ukraine.
“And even more so if these attempts result in outright extermination of people, as happened in recent years with regard to Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, where they lived for centuries in their native land,” he said.
Russia hits military targets in Ukraine’s east, south
Russia strikes Ukraine’s east and south, pounding the Donbas and Mykolaiv regions with air attacks and artillery fire.
phloydius
Veteran Member
Anyone know about how many troops/mercenaries would be in 2 Polish battalions?
Could be a couple hundred to over 1000. Looking at what they are armed with I am guessing they are mercenaries or "volunteers". Nobody goes to war with antitank guns anymore unless they are desperate and out of Javelins. I would think if they were actual Poish infantry they would be armed with Polish weapons or at least good up to date stuff.
This appears to be good information. As opposed to most of the rest of Europe, Finland has not been resting on its blessed assurance while the EU is burning itself down.did we discuss this yet?
Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews
U.S. ambassador to Finland tells @DavidAsmanfox before Russia cut off natural gas, the Finns signed a deal with Texas-based Excelerate Energy Friday to begin importing liquefied natural gas later this year.
The 10-year contract with Excelerate is for a floating LNG receiving and regasification facility - basically a big-assed ship which can transfer, store and re-gasify loads from LNG tankers. It is supposed to be located at the port of Hamina and is to be shared in some sort of partnership with Estonia to the south. (Hamina is 145km east of Helsinki)
Hamina receiving facility is already built but may need to be enlarged, and the LNG vessel may be temporarily located in Estonia until it is. I was totally unaware of this but Finland actually operates two other LNG ports as well: Pori on its western coastline and Tornio on the very northern part of the Bay of Bothnia (basically the Swedish/Finland border).
Short version of all this: Unless there's some sort of marine blockade, Finland will have gas supplies this winter. Due to the higher transport costs, it will be more expensive than the Russian gas they've been getting through the pipeline for the bulk of their energy production.
My fervent hope is that this is unfounded rumor. If it is actual good information, the NATO and US State Department war hawks may very well have just had their fondest wishes come true.
Plans are already in place, contingencies considered and covered, force projections and allocations locked in safes in most senior officer’s quarters, CIC, CAG, and others. All it takes is a “go” order, and the fur will fly. NOBODY sails into harm’s way, without having every situation pre-gamed, planned for, and forces deployed. Much was learned from previous screw-ups. If you’re going to poke the Bear, you’d best be holding the winning cards- or else. Right now, there is NO NEED to poke the Bear. Of course, that presupposes that you have a competent, rational, intelligent leader who is not a meat puppet for your enemies…. Ooops.
OA
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
RT 30:53 - Indigo Traveler
Walking Ukraine's Destroyed Streets in War (beyond words)
This day we drove to some Ukrainian towns and cities that have recently faced unimaginable events.
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
39m
Update: WSJ: US officials: Washington is considering sending special forces to Kyiv to guard its embassy there.
@EndGameWW3
39m
Update: WSJ: US officials: Washington is considering sending special forces to Kyiv to guard its embassy there.
Nowski
Let's Go Brandon!
Perhaps The Grand Solar Minimum will eventually get up to full speed,
and The North Atlantic can gain some sea state 6-9 weather,
that will keep the LNG ships from traveling to Finland.
The best thing for Finland and all of Europe, is for there to be a very
bitter and cold winter, and that they get to sit in their cold dark houses,
and think long and hard, about what dumbarses they have been,
regarding this totally avoidable war.
I have been in sea state six, with 20 ft. waves, and it was no fun.
No idea what kind of weather the LNG tankers can endure,
but perhaps the weather will keep them in port, where they belong.
Please be safe everyone.
Regards to all.
Nowski
Last edited:
DuckandCover
Proud Sheeple
Yeah, maybe that will also teach the Russians to keep their troops in their own country and stop starting these totally avoidable wars.
Zagdid
Veteran Member
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
14h
Tis will add 10km to the reach of Ukrainian M777 155mm guns (to 40km), plus three meter accuracy.
View: https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1528183103302377472?s=20&t=8bKlG_-ipPc4rkSb1v3YdA
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Marine artillery barrage of Raqqa was so intense two howitzers burned out
The artillery barrage of Raqqa was so intense U.S. Marines burned out the barrels of two M777 howitzers while supporting U.S.- backed Syrian fighters.
www.marinecorpstimes.com
(snip)
Nevertheless, the burnout of two M777 howitzers highlights the amount of artillery shells that rained down upon ISIS and Raqqa.
“I’ve never heard of it ― normally your gun goes back to depot for full reset well before that happens,” a former Army artillery officer told Military Times on condition of anonymity. “That’s a shitload of rounds though,”
The rounds it would take to burn out a barrel is dependent on the level of charge and the range to the target, he said.
The level of charge of the round is also a function of the weight of the shell being used and the distance to the target.
And you won't read about it . . . there will be no electricity
likely excuse
Zagdid
Veteran Member
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Ukraine20map2051916570232_c4ac0b85e3_c-b8d385551a2f4ff5a7ad4fd99a53a399.jpg)
27 million tons of grain planned for export stuck in Ukraine
If ports remain blocked, a large number of grain producers may go bankrupt because they will be unable to sell grain.
27 MILLION TONS OF GRAIN PLANNED FOR EXPORT STUCK IN UKRAINE
By Iurii Mykhailov
5/22/2022
The world is facing a surge in food prices while some countries will encounter a shortage of food and even a hunger, according to UN officials. This is the consequence of the war in Ukraine, which has already lasted three months.
In 2021, Ukraine harvested 107 million tons of grain and oilseeds. Up until the war began, the country managed to export 43 million tons of the 70 million tons expected. This means 27 million tons of grain planned for export is stuck in Ukraine. It is believed that up to 4 million tons of grain and oilseeds are in the terminals and on ships stranded in ports.
SEA EXPORT STOPPED
Up to 95% of grain exported from Ukraine has been by sea. But now two ports on the Azov Sea, namely, Mariupol and Berdiansk, and the Port of Kherson on the Black Sea are under Russian control. The Port of Mykolaiv, also on the Black Sea, was severely damaged. Three ports of the so-called Greater Odessa are blocked and waterways are mined.
There remain four Ukrainian ports on the Danube River, namely, Ust-Danube, Kiliia, Izmail, and Reni. However, they are obsolete and of limited throughput and cannot handle more than 300,000 tons of grain per month. Also, there are not enough barges to ship the necessary volume of grain to the nearest Romanian Port of Constanta on the Black Sea.
BOTTLENECK ON THE RAILROAD
After the Ukrainian sea ports were blocked, grain exporters turned their eyes to the railroad.
Cargo can be transshipped or transferred to European countries through 13 railway border crossings: four with Poland, two with Slovakia, two with Hungary, three with Romania and two with Moldova.
The designed throughput of these 13 railway border crossings is about 3,400 cars per day. This corresponds to approximately 220,000 tons of various cargo, of which 731 wagons or approximately 50,000 tons of grain can be transferred daily. Yet, only 20,000 tons of grain cross the border per day now.
The principal problem is that Ukrainian and European railroads use completely different gauges. For example, the Ukrainian railroad gauge is 1,520 mm (4 ft 1127/32 in) while European railroads use the standard 1,435 mm (4 ft 8.5 in) gauge.
Therefore, Ukrainian and European gauge and rolling stock are completely different both in dimensions and parameters. And it isn’t possible to simply exchange cargo and goods and move rolling stock across the border. Thus, the transshipment from the Ukrainian cars to European cars in points where Ukrainian gauge 1,520 mm and European gauge 1,435 mm are adjacent isn't feasible.
The second way is to change wheel sets on the Ukrainian car. There are five wheel set change points, but they are not used much due to the difference in dimensions of Ukrainian and European cars. Each time it is necessary to match the route on which Ukrainian cars with the changed wheel sets can move. There are only a few such routes. Therefore, this method of changing wheel sets is of limited use.
There are also three other problems. First, exporters use the existing border crossings unevenly. Of the 13 railway border crossings, only five operate at full capacity. These are Izov at the Polish border crossing, Uzhgorod, Chop, and Romanian border crossings. These five border crossings are fully loaded because exporters prefer to send cargo to these locations. The remaining eight border crossings are loaded only at 30% to 50% of their capacity. Exporters, therefore, should build new logistics chains outside the territory of Ukraine to fix with European carriers the movement of grain along the new routes.
The second problem is that the European infrastructure and carriers were not ready for a sharp increase in the volume of grain cargo transportation. European carriers did not have a sufficient number of grain cars with a gauge of 1,435 mm. They also don't have enough locomotive fleet to handle this additional flow of Ukrainian grain. And, of course, they have infrastructural limitations. For example, in Romania and Moldova sections have weight restrictions for the train, thus the weight of the train there must not exceed 2,700 tons while in Ukraine such trains run with a weight of 5,400 tons.
The third problem involves bureaucratic delays at the border associated with customs clearance, border inspection, phytosanitary and veterinary control. In contrast to export grain by sea where only one set of certificates is required for the entire cargo, exporting grain by rail requires one set of certificates per car.
Because of all these problems, the time for grain to cross borders now may be up from two to three weeks while the corresponding certificates are valid for only 15 days.
EXPORT BY TRUCK IS A UTOPIA
Exporters are also trying to export grain by trucks. Some Ukrainian grain market analysts suggested that it is possible to export up to 40,000 tons of grain per day by (or 1.2 million tons per month) using 2,000 trucks. These analysts completely ignore the fact that the turnover of the grain truck from silo to port abroad may take an average of at least five days. This means the fleet must consist of at least 10,000 grain trucks. In order to operate 24/7, each truck must be operated by two drivers who also need to rest periodically. In order to export 1.2 million tons of grain per month, there must be a fleet of at least 10,000 trucks with at least 20,000 drivers who speak foreign languages fluently. This is a utopia.
A BLEAK FUTURE
Until Ukrainian sea ports become unblocked, the real volume of grain that can be exported will not exceed 25 to 30 million tons per year under the best scenario. This is only from 30% to 50% of the prewar Ukrainian grain export.
Keep in mind, too, that the logistic costs of export by rail or trucks has already gone through the roof. For example, the cost to deliver grain to sea ports abroad may reach $150 to $250 USD per ton.
This year Ukraine expects to harvest about 70 million tons of grain. Considering the carry on stocks of grain are now about 40 million tons and available total storage capacity of is 60 to 65 million tons, there will be no room to store up to 50 million tons of grain. Provided the ports remain blocked a large number of grain producers may go bankrupt because they will be unable to sell their grain. This means there may be no next sowing season for them and the next harvest will be much smaller than this year's crop. The Ukrainian grain export in 2023/2024 may look very thin.
THE CONCLUSION
Until Ukrainian sea ports are unblocked, the world food crisis may get worse. Thus, it is in the interest of the whole world to help Ukraine win the war with Russia.