ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

jward

jward

passin' thru
McConnell says the Senate will pass the largest Ukraine aid package yet on Wednesday



May 15, 20221:20 PM ET

Deirdre Walsh, 2018

Deirdre Walsh
Instagram Twitter

ap22134642165060_wide-a37b62ca14acece4dd7b2a32b5b5637ec56ee9db-s1100-c50.jpg


In this handout photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., pose for a photo in Kyiv on Saturday.
Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/AP

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who led a delegation of Senate Republicans to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Saturday said he expected the Senate to approve a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday.

McConnell said he supported adding Russia to the list of state sponsors of terrorism and would back holding a vote on the issue, but urged President Biden to do it on his own.

Speaking from Stockholm, McConnell also said he supported Finland and Sweden joining NATO: "I think the United States ought to be first in line to ratify the treaty for both these countries to join."

McConnell heads to Kyiv and becomes the latest U.S. official to meet with Zelenskyy
Europe
McConnell heads to Kyiv and becomes the latest U.S. official to meet with Zelenskyy

McConnell pushed back on those in his party who were arguing that the U.S. should not be spending billions to send weapons and security assistance to Ukraine.

McConnell said aid to Ukraine is "in America's interest." He added, "This is not some handout. This is to prevent a ruthless thug from beginning a march through Europe, and the first place to stop him is in Ukraine, and that's what we're determined to do."

He also responded to some GOP figures who have criticized the current U.S. role in Ukraine. "There have always been isolationist voices in the Republican Party, and there were prior to World War II, and that's perfectly alright," McConnell said. "This is a debate worth having. It's an important subject. And I think one of the lessons we learned from World War II is not standing up to aggression early. It's a huge mistake."



In terms of those on the political right saying the U.S. should focus resources on the southern border, McConnell said, it's not "an either/or proposition."

How the U.S. aid to Ukraine is taking shape
World
How the U.S. aid to Ukraine is taking shape

Asked about Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul holding up the vote on aid last week, McConnell said, "It's no secret Rand and I hold different world views." He added, "we'll get the job done by Wednesday."

McConnell said there was no way to know how long the $40 billion package would last, but said he expected it to provide support for a "significant period of time." The Biden administration first pitched its version of the aid package, which was initially smaller, to last through the current fiscal year ending on Sept. 30.

The Kentucky Republican said he planned to give President Biden a rundown on his trip when he returned to the U.S.

In an interview with NPR on Thursday, McConnell said he thought the administration's handling of Ukraine had improved after intially thinking it was too "tentative," while indicating he remained in close touch with Biden.

The GOP leader said he suggested that the White House accept separating Ukraine aid from more controversial aid for the COVID-19 response, and when he reached out to the White House, McConnell said Biden "called me back in 15 minutes."

"So we're all on the same team on this," McConnell also told NPR. "The Russians need to lose. The Ukrainians need to win."
www.npr.org

McConnell says the Senate will pass the largest Ukraine aid package yet on Wednesday

The GOP leader spoke from Stockholm following a trip to Kyiv. He backed Sweden and Finland joining NATO and pushed back on more isolationist voices in his party.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
 
jward

jward

passin' thru






Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
2h

Russian Senator Viktor Bondarev says that Russia will increase its troop presence on the border with Finland, if Finland joins NATO and hosts Western weapons This is a rehash of Putin's troop deployment pledge in 2016
 
O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:

Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
2h

Russian Senator Viktor Bondarev says that Russia will increase its troop presence on the border with Finland, if Finland joins NATO and hosts Western weapons This is a rehash of Putin's troop deployment pledge in 2016
Click to expand...

If Putin survives his upcoming surgeries, he’ll need to remember the Winter War… T’would be a shame, if Russia lost a second war with Finland, in less than a century…

OA
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
155 arty said:
they are new to the system but,damn slower than molasses in February
Click to expand...

Last I heard, Germany is sending 9 Panzerthaubitze 2000 to Ukraine.

It uses standard NATO 155mm artillery projectiles which are pre-loaded into a rotary magazine and then mechanically rammed during firing. The bagged charge is still loaded by hand.

12 rounds fired in 59 seconds. 20 rounds fired in 1 minute, 47 seconds.

3:02

Vuursnelheid pzh2000 autoload

View: https://youtu.be/Tc9sb71px5I
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
OldArcher said:
If Putin survives his upcoming surgeries, he’ll need to remember the Winter War… T’would be a shame, if Russia lost a second war with Finland, in less than a century…

OA
Click to expand...

What other war did Russia lose with Finland in the past 100 years? The Soviet Union won the Winter war of 1939/40 as far as I can tell.

Winter War: The 1939 Soviet Invasion Of Finland In Crystal-Clear Photos

"Accepting the armistice cost Finland 11 percent of its territory, including the country's second city of Vyborg. The Winter War left 25,904 Finns dead. The Soviets lost at least 126,875 soldiers. "

Winter War From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The Moscow Peace Treaty was signed in Moscow on 12 March 1940. A cease-fire took effect the next day at noon Leningrad time, 11 a.m. Helsinki time.[181][182] With it, Finland ceded a portion of Karelia, the entire Karelian Isthmus and land north of Lake Ladoga. The area included Viipuri (Finland's second-largest city [Population Register] or fourth-largest city [Church and Civil Register], depending on the census data[183]), much of Finland's industrialised territory, and significant land still held by Finland's military — all in all, nine percent of Finnish territory. The ceded territory included 13 percent of Finland's economic assets.[184] 12 percent of Finland's population, 422,000 to 450,000 Karelians, were evacuated and lost their homes.[185][186][187] Finland ceded a part of the region of Salla, Rybachy Peninsula in the Barents Sea, and four islands in the Gulf of Finland. The Hanko peninsula was leased to the Soviet Union as a military base for 30 years. The region of Petsamo, captured by the Red Army during the war, was returned to Finland according to the treaty.[188]

Finnish concessions and territorial losses exceeded Soviet pre-war demands. Before the war, the Soviet Union demanded for the frontier with Finland on the Karelian Isthmus to be moved westward to a point 30 kilometres (19 mi) east of Viipuri to the line between Koivisto and Lipola; for existing fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus to be demolished and for the islands of Suursaari, Tytärsaari, and Koivisto in the Gulf of Finland and Rybachy Peninsula to be ceded. In exchange, the Soviet Union proposed to cede Repola and Porajärvi from Eastern Karelia, an area twice as large as the territories that were originally demanded from the Finns.[189][60][190]"
 
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jward

jward

passin' thru
Are we sure there are surgeries in his future, or is that more akin to the Queen died (yet again for the 2 dozenth time, but this time it's really really real) brand of "knowledge"?

OldArcher said:
If Putin survives his upcoming surgeries, he’ll need to remember the Winter War… T’would be a shame, if Russia lost a second war with Finland, in less than a century…

OA
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks

Ukraine SITREP

1. It seems there was some sort of missile or UAV interception overnight in Belgorod with multiple periods when Russian Air Defence Systems were active.
2. There were more Russian air/missile strikes overnight and this morning with reports of interceptions very likely. Targets were in the north, east, south and southeast with some impacts reported, but fewer strikes than most nights.
3. Russian air activity has reportedly reduced in many areas in the last 24hrs hrs, likely due to the weather. Ukrainian aircraft remained active yesterday conducting multiple airstrikes around Izyum and against Russian forces trying to cross a river south of Kryvyi Rih.
4. Ukrainian forces downed two more Russian helicopters and seven UAVs in the last 24hrs and intercepted two Russian cruise missiles.
5. A number of small Russian offensives across the Donbas were repelled by Ukrainian forces with no Russian gains of any significance. Around Izyum there was minimal Russian manoeuvres.
6. In the southwest some shelling continues towards Barvinkove, but Russian units pushing towards this city were repelled and diverted east south of Izyum into Dovhenke and towards Dolyna.
7. Some fighting occurred here, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold this region and the Russian units lack reinforcements for now.
8. To the southeast of Izyum is the main Russian focus now, where they try to isolate Ukrainian units and prepare for a major offensive on Sievierodonetsk.
9. Heavy shelling continues around Sievierodonetsk and Russian units made some minor advances south of the city. Heavy fighting continued this morning near Lyman, but reinforcements from Izyum are being disrupted and most activity is now from the south.
10. Some fighting continues towards Bakhmut this morning and the main highway, but Russian advances here have been repelled and the highway remains secure for now.
11. There were no reports of any real changes around Kharkiv. Shelling here has significantly reduced and occurs mostly on Ukrainian units in the east and northeast where some Ukrainian reconnaissance elements reached the border.
12. There have been no reported major Ukrainian offensives as yet on the Russian resupply corridor and railway infrastructure, although this is likely in the future.
13. Russian Forces including SOF, Airborne and Private Contractor units have moved to secure this corridor whilst Russian Reserve and other regenerated Forces in Belgorod prepare to deploy.
14. There are reports Russian Private Military Contractors are now amalgamating with Russian Special and Elite units degraded due to casualty losses.
15. Fighting around Kherson has reduced significantly with less shelling also reported. Russian forces continue to push some reinforcement units north.
16. Russian forces thought to be evolving and trying to reinforce a regional FOB south of Kryvyi Rih were hit again by Ukrainian airstrikes destroying numerous vehicles as they tried to cross the Inhulets River.
17. In Mariupol shelling has continued some times intensively, but no further airstrikes were reported overnight.
The Cavell Group
@TCG_CrisisRisks
12m
18. Russian Naval activity in the northern Black Sea continues to be very active with reports of Submarine activity too. It’s likely these are poised for missile strikes against any time-critical-targets like weapons movements whilst weather reduces Russian air activity.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15

May 15, 2022 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_403.png

Download the PDF

Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 15, 6:30 pm ET​
Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast.[1] His observations are generally consistent with our analysis. The Russian military command will likely prioritize the Battle of Severodonetsk going forward, with some efforts dedicated to disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are continuing a coordinated effort to seize Severodonetsk from the north and the south, which would result in a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected. The failed Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Kreminna may shift Russian encirclement operations further east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, rather than conducting a wider encirclement along multiple axes. Russian forces have also likely been scaling down advances to Slovyansk from Izyum, possibly due to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.

Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that approximately 2,500 Russian reservists are training in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts to reinforce Russian offensive operations in Ukraine. That number of reservists is unlikely to generate enough force to replenish Russian units that have reportedly lost up to 20 percent of staffing in some areas—to say nothing of the battalion tactical group that was largely destroyed recently while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River.[2] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.[3] Russian forces also deployed new conscripts from occupied settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City, likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.[4]
Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.[5] Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.[6] Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat.
Russian forces are likely fortifying occupied settlements in southern Ukraine, indicating that the Russians are seeking to establish permanent control in the region. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces began digging trenches and building concrete revetments in unspecified areas of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast, near Melitopol, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7]
Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces will likely prioritize winning the Battle of Severodonetsk over reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces did not advance in the Slovyansk direction due to unsuccessful offensive operations in the Izyum area. Ukrainian aviation continues to operate north and east of Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued to launch artillery, air, and naval assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant, but Mariupol defenders maintained their positions.
  • Russian forces are fortifying occupied settlements along the southern axis, indicative of Russian objectives for permanent control of the area.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, ”Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.
  • Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate main effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
  • Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
  • Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
  • Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults in the direction of Slovyansk on May 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched an offensive on Dovhenke and Bogorodychne, approximately 18 and 25 km south of Izyum, respectively.[8] Pro-Russian Telegram channels claimed that Russian forces entered Dovhenke on May 14, but we assess that they were likely unable to secure the settlement due to heavy fighting.[9]
Ukrainian aviation continues to operate over Russian-controlled settlements near Izyum. Ukrainian artillery struck Russian armor and positions approximately 65 km north of Izyum with support from Ukrainian drones.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered losses and retreated from an occupied settlement east of Izyum, likely due to a Ukrainian airstrike.[11] Social media also observed Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft striking the Russian salient in the Izyum area.[12]

Russian forces made minor territorial advances toward Severodonetsk and are likely committing to a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Luhansk Oblast in place of the more ambitious encirclements that might have given them control over all or most of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces engaged in battles in settlements approximately 4 km northeast and 5 km southwest of Severodonetsk on May 15.[13] Haidai said that the Russian command likely scaled back its objective of reaching the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders to focus on Luhansk Oblast. Haidai said that the Russians are committing additional forces to their northern and southern drives toward Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast.[14] He added that the Russian command also continued its efforts to seize the Lysychansk-Bahmut highway to surround Ukrainian units in Rubizhne, Severodonentsk, and Lysychansk, all in Luhansk Oblast.[15] Commentary on pro-Russian Telegram channels and observed ground offensives northeast of Popasna suggest that Russian forces will try to advance to Lysychansk via the T1303 highway.[16] Failed Russian attempts to cross Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna likely further undermined Russian large-scale encirclement efforts.[17]

Russian forces continue their efforts to reach Zaporizhia City and Slovyansk from Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City, likely to secure the N15 highway to Zaporizhia City.[18] Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful attack on Avdiivka from the west.[19] Pro-Russian Telegram channels claimed that units of the Donetsk People’s Republic advanced in the eastern Avdiivka area.[20] Pro-Russian Telegram channels characterized Russian efforts in western Donetsk Oblast as “methodological and unhurried encirclement” of Ukrainian units in Donbas that will reunite with Russian forces in Izyum.[21] Russian forces are unlikely to succeed in such large-scale encirclement operations due to the evidently limited availability of effective Russian combat power, stiff Ukrainian resistance, and Russian prioritization of the Severodonetsk offensive operation. Ukrainian forces destroyed the dam at the Mironovskyi reservoir, 5 km north of Svitlodarsk, on May 14 to cause flooding that will likely slow down Russian advances to the north.[22]


Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian forces conducted artillery, air, and naval strikes on the remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 15.[23] Ukrainian officials said that Russian forces fired incendiary munitions with thermite layers at Azovstal on May 14.[24] Families of the Mariupol defenders said that Ukrainian servicemen barely leave shelter at Azovstal and then only to procure food and water.[25]
Mariupol Mayor Advisor Petro Andryushenko reported that a column of over 500 vehicles evacuated from Mariupol to Zaporizhia City on May 15.[26] Andryushenko added that Russian forces did not fix access to water or electricity for Mariupol residents and focused on strengthening occupation authority in the city.[27]


Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued to push Russian forces from northeastern Kharkiv City toward the Russian state border on May 15.[28] Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces fired on Ukrainian positions northeast of Kharkiv, likely in an attempt to defend Russian ground lines of communications in Vovchansk, approximately 60 km from Kharkiv City.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian command had committed newly mobilized units from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to the Kharkiv City axis—further evidence of the inadequacy of Russia’s available reserves.[30]

Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces continued to fortify their positions in southern Ukraine and did not conduct active offensive operations on May 15. The Zaporizhia Military Administration reported that Russian forces dug trenches in southern Melitopol along the Molochna River and in villages 30 km south of the city.[31] ISW previously reported that Russian forces reportedly also created trenches 35 km east of the Kherson Oblast border.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are also creating reinforced concrete structures in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[33] Russian trenches and concrete shelters are indicators that Russian forces seek to establish and defend permanent control over the occupied areas. Russian forces are also attempting to restart operations at an auto parts plant in Zaporizhia Oblast in an effort to start military production in the region.[34]

Moldova%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2015%2C2022.png

Immediate Items to Watch
  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but will likely attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk and Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.
  • A Ukrainian counteroffensive around Izyum will likely begin soon.
  • The Battle of Mariupol will, apparently and surprisingly, continue.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
continued.. .
[1] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[2]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437


[3]
https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/311906081120819
View: https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/311906081120819

[4]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[5]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437

[6]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317306580582427
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317306580582427

[7] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...;
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=3258185934416443
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3258185934416443

[8]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437

[9] Росич | Rosich
[10]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525830536912158723
View: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1525830536912158723;
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525796784399859712
View: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1525796784399859712
;
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525828271945957384
View: https://twitter.com/doppelot/status/1525828271945957384

[11]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437

[12]
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525788514142638080
View: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1525788514142638080

[13] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[14] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[15] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[16] Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
; Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[17] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[18]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437

[19]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437
View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/317686480544437

[20] Сладков +
[21] Сводки ополчения Новороссии Z.O.V. (ДНР, ЛНР, Украина, Война); Сладков +
[22] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1525840827838242816; Romanov Лайт ]ࣩࣩࣩࣩ࣯ࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩࣩ
[23] Log into Facebook; Log into Facebook; Андрющенко Time Мариуполь сейчас
[24] Политика Страны 15 мая 2022 г.; Лик Войны.https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1525718180819263490; https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1525849952148152321
[25] Политика Страны
[26] Андрющенко Time
[27] Мариуполь сейчас; Андрющенко Time Андрющенко Time Андрющенко Time
[28] Политика Страны
[29] Log into Facebook; Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА
[30] Log into Facebook; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[31] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[32] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...
[33] Поточна оперативна обстановка на Півдні України: на вечір 14.05.2022. https://youtu.be/a2b3bnwr37w 8️⃣0️⃣ добу мужній український народ протидіє рашистській навалі. На Миколаївщині та Херсонщині ворог продовжує ведення бойових дій, удосконалює інженерне облаштування своїх позицій, при чому на стільки бажаючи закріпитися, що застосовує залізобетонні конструкції. Однак, активних наступальних дій не веде. ⚡Водночас, по Миколаївщині знов нанесено ракетний удар. Продовжуються спроби руйнування промислової інфраструктури. Втрат серед місцевого населення немає. ⚡Ефективним застосуванням ракетно-артилерійського озброєння та авіацією Повітряних сил України знищено 2️⃣0️⃣ рашистів, 3️⃣ склади ворожих боєприпасів в різних областях, броньована та автомобільна техніка й самохідна артилерійська установка. В Чорному морі продовжує перебувати 2️⃣ кораблі – носії крилатих ракет – та 5️⃣ великих десантних кораблів. Психологічний тиск та загроза ракетних ударів з моря актуальності не втрачають. На Одещині штормова погода винесла на поверхню та наблизила до берегу ворожу морську міну. Ситуація під контролем відповідних підрозділів Військово-Морських Сил ЗСУ. Міну буде знешкоджено фахівцями підривної команди. ‼️Однак, це ще раз нагадує про небезпеку купання та іншого способу використання прибережних вод. Не варто забувати й про те, що силами оборони вжито заходів протидії, тож південні узбережжя сьогодні – це не зони відпочинку, а лінія захисту від ворога, а значить і зона небезпеки. Будьте мудрими і свідомими, бережіть себе і разом збережемо... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South”
[34] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація

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Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
155 arty

155 arty

Veteran Member
Red Baron said:
Last I heard, Germany is sending 9 Panzerthaubitze 2000 to Ukraine.

It uses standard NATO 155mm artillery projectiles which are pre-loaded into a rotary magazine and then mechanically rammed during firing. The bagged charge is still loaded by hand.

12 rounds fired in 59 seconds. 20 rounds fired in 1 minute, 47 seconds.

3:02

Vuursnelheid pzh2000 autoload

View: https://youtu.be/Tc9sb71px5I
Click to expand...
Damn that's impressive
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
this is probably due to the new 155mm arty.

russian mil collapse in ...

www.nytimes.com

Growing evidence of a military disaster on the Donets pierces a pro-Russian bubble.

As the news of the losses at the river crossing started to spread, some Russian bloggers did not hold back in their criticism of what they said was incompetent leadership.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Growing evidence of a military disaster on the Donets pierces a pro-Russian bubble.

May 15, 2022, 11:01 a.m. ET
Anton Troianovski and Marc Santora

A ruined pontoon crossing with dozens of destroyed or damaged Russian armored vehicles on both banks of the Donets River.

A ruined pontoon crossing with dozens of destroyed or damaged Russian armored vehicles on both banks of the Donets River.Credit...Ukraine Armed Forces

The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.

And as the scale of what happened comes into sharper focus, the disaster appears to be breaking through the Kremlin’s tightly controlled information bubble.

Perhaps most striking, the Russian battlefield failure is resonating with a stable of pro-Russian war bloggers — some of whom are embedded with troops on the front line — who have reliably posted to the social network Telegram with claims of Russian success and Ukrainian cowardice.

“The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research body, wrote over the weekend.

On May 11, the Russian command reportedly sent about 550 troops of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Donets River at Bilohorivka, in the eastern Luhansk region, in a bid to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne.

Satellite images reveal that Ukrainian artillery destroyed several Russian pontoon bridges and laid waste to a tight concentration of Russian troops and equipment around the river.

The Institute for the Study of War, citing analyses based on the publicly available imagery, indicated that there could have been as many as 485 Russian soldiers killed or wounded and more than 80 pieces of equipment destroyed.

As the news of the losses at the river crossing in Bilohorivka started to spread, some Russian bloggers did not appear to hold back in their criticism of what they said was incompetent leadership.

“I’ve been keeping quiet for a long time,” Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now.

“The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two.”

Mr. Podolyaka ridiculed the Kremlin line that the war is going “according to plan.” He told his viewers in a five-minute video that, in fact, the Russian Army was short of functional unmanned drones, night-vision equipment and other kit “that is catastrophically lacking on the front.”

“Yes, I understand that it’s impossible for there to be no problems in war,” he said. “But when the same problems go on for three months, and nothing seems to be changing, then I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation.”

Another popular blogger, who goes by Starshe Eddy on Telegram, wrote that the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to “not idiocy, but direct sabotage.”

And a third, Vladlen Tatarski, posted that Russia’s eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also “these generals” and their tactics.
“Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won’t have had any military reforms,” Mr. Tatarski wrote.

Western military analysts have also pored over the imagery and say the attempted crossing demonstrated a stunning lack of tactical sense.

They have speculated that Russian commanders, desperate to make progress, rushed the operation. Some also suggested that it was a reflection of disorder in the Russian ranks.

If the estimates that hundreds of soldiers were killed or injured prove accurate, it would be one of the deadliest known engagements of the war.

There were more than 500 sailors aboard the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva when it was struck by a Ukrainian missile in April. The Kremlin at first insisted that all the sailors were rescued, later saying one was killed. But even as the families of missing sailors have publicly demanded answers, the Kremlin has largely kept up an official silence on the fate of the crew, part of a larger campaign to suppress bad news.
 
M

magilla

Contributing Member
ISW
askeptic.substack.com

Victoria's ISW Secret

The MSM gets its war analysis from the sister in law of the woman who made the war inevitable.
askeptic.substack.com askeptic.substack.com

"The ISW Analysis of the war is bleak for Russia. It fully ignores Russia’s stated goals, hammers home any Russian setbacks, and elevates minor Ukrainian wins. To the casual news consumer, Russia will lose if we in the west help just a bit more. How can anyone not want to help? We can easily crush Russia and save this shiny new democracy, with just a little more help.
Once you see the reality of this coverage, you can’t help but see that it is agenda driven by Neocon insiders, aimed at prolonging a Ukrainian loss, for the simple purpose of gaining some wishful NATO advantage over Russia."

" The Founder and President of ISW, the MSM’s go to source, is in fact the Sister In Law of Victoria Nuland."
 
Calfisher

Calfisher

Veteran Member
magilla said:
ISW
askeptic.substack.com

Victoria's ISW Secret

The MSM gets its war analysis from the sister in law of the woman who made the war inevitable.
askeptic.substack.com askeptic.substack.com

"The ISW Analysis of the war is bleak for Russia. It fully ignores Russia’s stated goals, hammers home any Russian setbacks, and elevates minor Ukrainian wins. To the casual news consumer, Russia will lose if we in the west help just a bit more. How can anyone not want to help? We can easily crush Russia and save this shiny new democracy, with just a little more help.
Once you see the reality of this coverage, you can’t help but see that it is agenda driven by Neocon insiders, aimed at prolonging a Ukrainian loss, for the simple purpose of gaining some wishful NATO advantage over Russia."

" The Founder and President of ISW, the MSM’s go to source, is in fact the Sister In Law of Victoria Nuland."
Click to expand...


And that is why the Ukrainian propaganda is a bag of crap. Lies and manipulation to gain wealth. Believe it if you may.
 
R

raven

TB Fanatic
mecoastie said:
But can you believe the Russian number any more than the Ukrainian?
Click to expand...
Yes, however . . . believing the Biden Administration, Democrats in general, and a predominance of pedophiles, transvestites, LGBT appointees, and Congress is better than believing either Russians or Ukrainians.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Josie said:
Not believing either but so far, Putin hasn't been out begging for more and more. Every time I see Zelensky, he's asking for more. I've come to realize that there is no number on the aid that will ever be enough. Too bad others don't see it too.
Click to expand...

That's no different than any other nation in the same situation throughout history.
 
Southside

Southside

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DuckandCover said:
Not convinced of that. Doesn't the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine because Ukraine was beginning to lean toward NATO show that NATO is necessary? Ukraine didn't fire the first shot nor invade Russia, it was the other way around.

"Making friends" with Russia's neighbors is not what I would call being an aggressor. Invading another country is.
Click to expand...
Let's look all the way back to the Ukraine election of 2012. A Russian Centrist Government was duly elected by the Ukraine people. No one argues that. In 2014, the "Deep State", Georgie Soros, and his band of merry men, fomented a "Color Revolution"(Maiden Revolution) to overthrow the duly elected government, and replace it with the actor Zielnsky. And, here we are today.

Doesn't matter how you look at it, we are not on the right side of this.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Putin outlines position on looming NATO enlargement
Russia “has no problem” with Sweden or Finland but considers deployment of the bloc’s military infrastructure a threat
Putin outlines position on looming NATO enlargement

© Alexander NEMENOV / POOL / AFP
The possible accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO does not represent an immediate threat to Russia but the expansion of the alliance’s military infrastructure will “certainly” prompt a response from Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday.
On Sunday, the two Nordic countries officially announced their NATO membership bids, despite multiple warnings from Moscow. Speaking at the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s summit in the Kremlin, Putin said that further NATO enlargement “is a problem that has been created completely artificially, since it is being done in the foreign policy interests of the United States.”
He added that the military bloc has been routinely used as a foreign policy instrument of one country – the US, but “quite persistently, skilfully and very aggressively.”

The new development, in the Russian leader’s opinion, aggravates an already complicated international security situation. Putin, however, emphasized that it isn’t the actual accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO that bothers him.
“Russia has no problems with these states, and in this sense, the (NATO) expansion through the accession of these countries does not create an immediate threat for Russia. But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke our response,” Putin asserted.
He said the nature of Moscow’s response would depend on the particular threat posed by NATO.
“We will respond accordingly,” the Russian president stated.
Military support ready for NATO applicants – US
Putin’s remarks came as Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic Party announced that if the country joins NATO, it would stand “against the deployment of nuclear weapons and permanent bases on Swedish territory.”
Earlier on Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov claimed that by applying for membership of the alliance, Helsinki and Stockholm had chosen to “sacrifice common sense.” “They should have no illusions that we would simply tolerate it,” Ryabkov said.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who recently called NATO’s enlargement “a historic success,” said last month that the bloc “will warmly welcome” Finland and Sweden if they apply to join, and is prepared to make a decision on membership “quite quickly.”
Finland and Sweden decided to reconsider their long-standing policy of non-alignment following a major change in public opinion amid the ongoing Russia’s attack on Ukraine. According to recent polls, a majority in both countries now support membership of NATO.
www.rt.com

Putin outlines position on looming NATO enlargement

Deployment of NATO military infrastructure in Finland and Sweden will “certainly” prompt a response from Russia, Vladimir Putin has said
www.rt.com www.rt.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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