ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

danielboon

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1h

This adds more to it...
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Update: USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) will join USS Porter (DDG 78) in the Black Sea to enhance collaboration between U.S. and NATO forces at sea.
 

danielboon

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Putin: Russia must build up defenses in view of NATO moves
Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the need to strengthen the country’s air defenses amid NATO’s military activities near Russia’s borders
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press
November 1, 2021, 3:37 PM
• 3 min read

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3:29
On Location: November 1, 2021
Catch up on the developing stories making headlines.
The Associated Press
MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday emphasized the need to strengthen the country's air defenses amid NATO's military activities near Russia's borders.

Speaking during a meeting with military officials and arms makers in the southern Russian city of Sochi, Putin specificially noted the deployment of NATO's U.S.-led missile defense components in Eastern Europe and increasingly frequent missions by NATO ships near Russian waters in the Baltic and Black Seas.








“Even now, a U.S. warship has entered the Black Sea, and we can see it in binoculars or crosshairs of our defense systems,” he said in an apparent reference to the deployment of the U.S. destroyer USS Porter, which sailed into the Black Sea over the weekend and is to be joined this week by USS Mount Whitney, the flagship of the U.S. 6th Fleet.

U.S. Sixth Fleet said in a statement that their mission will help “further enhance collaboration between U.S. and NATO forces at sea,” adding that “NATO allies and partners stand together to ensure a safe, stable and secure Black Sea region, building partner capacity to improve effectiveness and interoperability.”

Russia has bristled at the deployment of U.S. and other NATO ships near waters it claims as its own as tensions between Moscow and the West have sunk to post-Cold War lows after Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, its support for a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine and other irritants.

Last month, Russia suspended its mission at NATO and ordered the closure of the alliance's office in Moscow after NATO had withdrawn the accreditation of eight Russian officials to its Brussels headquarters, saying it believed they had been secretly working for Russian intelligence.

Moscow has repeatedly voiced concerns over the deployment of NATO forces near Russian borders, describing it as a threat to its security. Russia and the alliance also have continuously accused each other of dangerous and provocative maneuvers at sea and in the air.

In June, Russia said one of its warships fired warning shots and a warplane dropped bombs in the path of British destroyer Defender to drive it away from Black Sea waters near the Crimean city of Sevastopol. Britain denied that account, insisted its ship wasn’t fired upon and said it was sailing in Ukrainian waters.


Like most of the world, Britain recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine despite the peninsula’s 2014 annexation by Russia.

In the aftermath of the incident, Moscow warned that it is prepared to target intruding warships if they fail to heed warnings.

“We must further improve our air and space defense system as leading powers have been developing prospective high-speed strike weapons," Putin said. “It's also warranted by the military-political situation, including increasingly intensive flights by NATO aircraft near Russia and the appearance of the alliance's warships armed with guided missiles in the Baltic and Black Seas.”

 

danielboon

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Update: Russia-Ukraine...
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Christiaan Triebert

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Satellite image taken today by @Maxar reveals presence of a large ground forces deployment — incl. tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery — to a training area north of Yelnya, Russia.
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Samuel Adams

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So.....religious question;



How long does the average over-the-top Soviet troop and hardware buildup just sit around the fire and tell campfire stories before they go, uh, literally ballistic ?




:hmm:
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
And I have a question for the military folks and those with some historical knowledge of the area on the forum.

My question is: How likely is it that Russia really would risk a war on the Eve of Winter, or are they actually gearing up in case they feel they have to mount an offensive in the Spring?

In terms of Taiwan, I gather there is a similar problem for the Chinese in terms of super-storms that tend to make ocean travel rather difficult between a couple of weeks from now and early Spring - but I don't know as much about that.

I gather Russian tanks CAN fight in snow/ice but what they can't do easily is move through mud, which was the problem earlier in the year during the massive buildup.

All of this is just speculation (until suddenly it may not be) but I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on this - thanks in advance.
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
So.....religious question;



How long does the average over-the-top Soviet troop and hardware buildup just sit around the fire and tell campfire stories before they go, uh, literally ballistic ?




:hmm:

IMHO, not too long. I'm betting that they have a few more pieces to put into place and then they start monitoring (first level/step of Electronic Warfare (EW)). When you hear of them starting a more provocative probing of the surrounding area (active EW transmissions, not just reception) to see the reaction, then you are getting really close to the point of "ballistic". I am checking daily to see what they have as far as radar setups in the area that are active. That, and a few SIGINT vehicles mean that they plan more than just a show of force. If they start screwing with their enemies equipment, then I would probably bet that they are less than a week or two out. But they will probe and push things first, so that is what I am relying on to give me a head's up. That, and watching what china is doing, as they probably are relying on each other to give the other "cover" and start physical provocations at about the same time.

While we have been giving our military "FUSE" indoctrination (F'd Up Sex Ed) and teaching them that everything they know is wrong, The russians have been working on a LOT of new systems, and really getting a handle on the EW front. The way that they have been screwing with their enemies (including the Ukraine) in past "battles" by completely messing with their enemies systems (like hacking their radios, cellphones (enough to make calls from "mom" with spoofing CID to the foreign troops and then bombing the crap out of them when their phone connects)). And have been able to "fake" whole troop/equipment movements on their enemy's radar systems as well, so their enemies have to use multiple systems to make sure what they are seeing is "real", thereby lighting up a lot more of their assets for incoming fire. When your enemy gives up using their own miitary tactical comms, and switches to DMR radios with encryption and the trick of handing out Analog VHF and UHF radios by the THOUSANDS to their citizens to create an artifical noise floor in which to hide in, you know you are doing something well. Yes, this level of EW superiority CAN be counterattacked, but you have to know what you are doing. Sending our troops over there right now is NOT going to have a good outcome.
 

Samuel Adams

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Thank you, Loup, for that highly educated reply...

Gotta ask......in what remote upcoming potential event possibility DO you see a positive outcome ?
 

phloydius

Veteran Member
And I have a question for the military folks and those with some historical knowledge of the area on the forum.

All IMHO:

Russia's general philosophy is regardless of the cost, do what it takes to achieve the goal - but only what it takes. They would go all-in if needed, but only if it was really needed. NATO is more of a risk-based management style (comparing the risk of an action vs the reward) to determine if an action is worth it. NATO starts by focusing on a list of all the options (to include no action), and based on the risk/reward picks one. Russia starts by focusing on what must be accomplished, and focuses on planning how to solidly achieve the goal with the minimum amount of risk.


I gather Russian tanks CAN fight in snow/ice but what they can't do easily is move through mud, which was the problem earlier in the year during the massive buildup.

Fighting in the ice, snow, and mud is a problem but not the problem. It is considerably more difficult. It is more difficult for the offensive force than the defensive force. The big problem is movement of logistics over distances (food, fuel, & ammo). Wars are won or lost on logistics. Prepositioning supplies helps, but does not address all the issues.

My question is: How likely is it that Russia really would risk a war on the Eve of Winter, or are they actually gearing up in case they feel they have to mount an offensive in the Spring?

In general (not specific to the timing now)...
In a conventional troop-on-troop & tank-on-tank war, Russia would be better at fighting in the winter than the NATO counterparts (with the exception neighboring countries like Ukraine & Poland). Ideally, if Russia was able to quickly invade before the winter & mud became an issue, bring in large amounts of supplies, and dig in defensively before NATO could setup a counter offensive then Russia would have either all winter to solidify the defenses or defend against a NATO offense that would be at a huge disadvantage.

The wildcards are the EM weapon systems that Russia has perfected, naval control over the Black Sea, the ability to patrol the airspace from remote theaters, the new Turkish made tank killing drones, and strong economic (supply chain) pressures such as natural gas & coal.
 

LoupGarou

Ancient Fuzzball
Thank you, Loup, for that highly educated reply...

Gotta ask......in what remote upcoming potential event possibility DO you see a positive outcome ?

Depends on a lot of things. If you mean "what might happen HERE in CONUS" when all of this starts happening, that all depends on the four (or more) groups that we may have to deal with directly or indirectly. We could be dealing with a few attacks from Russia and/or china directly, but I think that they will keep their attacks "indirect" for now. They want us out of the picture so that we don't (or can't) help with anything going on in either Taiwan or parts south, or in Ukraine (or near). I can see them "helping" in what is now very openly the "Zimmerman Telegram 2.0" that is waltzing across our borders, so indirectly they are already attacking us that way. I also see the wheels coming fully off the "democratic" bus with burnlootmurder, pantifa, and the rest of the crazies all kick up just before Christmas to add in the challenge (and TRE opportunities).

Personally, I can see some of our forces trying to help over there (Ukraine area or Taiwan area), and we end up getting our coasts NUKED for the effort while the central part of the US gets blitzkrieg'ed on a rather random daily basis by the invading hordes mixed in with the Karen-Brained socialists that are looking for a fight(and run) situation. I don't see china going after the heartland with nukes, as they may want the breadbasket that we have in the near future. I see them wanting Australia a lot more, and a LOT quicker for that reason, plus they are closer, AND they are disarmed for the most part. Russia may take back Alaska and a good chunk of Canada, but I don't see them going for the heartland either. I DO see both of them going for a takedown shot on both of our coasts to prevent any resupply or re-arming calls and to prevent our Navy from docking and helping CONUS.

It won't be pretty, and we have our UniParty Politicians (Poly meaning many, Ticks meaning bloodsucking creatures that spread disease) for the last 130 years to thank for all of this. Notice what they all say, and what they all do, AND what they all tell their citizens to do. Russia and china are telling their cits to prepare for a long hungry winter. Most of the rest of the world is hinting at the same. Our King Nothing is telling us to get vaccinated or get nothing through the ports for the holidays...
 

jward

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51m

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is closely monitoring the situation near the state border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
 

OldArcher

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Seems Ukraine is ready to start a full blown war with Russia with U.S. blessing. This is fixing to get real interesting.

Forces well above our pay grades are pulling strings that will be cut- after Snuffy and many innocents are laid to rest. War sucks. Those who seek it, are worse than the scum of the Earth. Watch your Six, and keep your heads on a swivel- because it’s coming to a neighborhood near you…

OA
 

jward

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4h

Update: Former Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko: "Ukraine is preparing to introduce martial law and to announce the mobilization."
 

Doomer Doug

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Having a neo Nazi war criminal as your new military advisor isn't a good move. And what is an Idaho Senator beating the war drums for a fatal war with Russia. Marxist demoncrats and warmonger rinos, to hell with both of them.

Russia and China will beat us utterly within the first 90 days, and they will hit Guam, Pearl etc since they know what they are doing.

The Republican victories will also speed things up as they realize the Golden opportunity of this last year is fading away with one final year available. Besides prime tank combat is January/February time frame. Snow, but not rain. Hard packed frozen ground, but not mud. Anytime from December 1st to February 1st is when we did M-60 tank combat training in the field at Baumholder. We also did some training in September October time frame as long as you could dodge the mud. The Russians have a fall rainy period and a spring rainy period.
 

jward

passin' thru
hmm. anyone wanna assure me this is SSDD, or... is it fixin' to get real up in here??

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4m

Update: Ukraine: UAF reportedly moving 95th Airborne Assault Brigade to the Horlivka frontlines. Units includes an artillery battalion with 18 units of D-30 howitzers, a battalion of 18 2S1 Gvozdikas, supported by 6 BM-21 GRAD systems and T-80 tanks.
 

danielboon

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Update: Putin and Lukashenko have approved the military doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. In total, 28 programs were agreed upon, about which almost nothing is known. A month ago, Luka spoke about opening a front against Ukraine. :siren: :siren: :siren:
 

danielboon

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hmm. anyone wanna assure me this is SSDD, or... is it fixin' to get real up in here??

EndGameWW3
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4m

Update: Ukraine: UAF reportedly moving 95th Airborne Assault Brigade to the Horlivka frontlines. Units includes an artillery battalion with 18 units of D-30 howitzers, a battalion of 18 2S1 Gvozdikas, supported by 6 BM-21 GRAD systems and T-80 tanks.
it is fixing to get real :shk:
 

danielboon

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Russian navy tracks U.S. ship Mount Whitney in Black Sea
Reuters





MOSCOW, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Russian navy has started tracking a U.S. naval command vessel in the Black Sea, news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying on Thursday, amid tension over NATO activities near Russia's borders.
"The forces and means of the Black Sea Fleet have started monitoring the actions of the Mount Whitney command ship, which entered the Black Sea zone on Nov. 4," TASS news agency quoted the defence ministry as saying.

The U.S. Navy said on Monday that the USS Mount Whitney had arrived in Istanbul and that it would soon join forces with other ships in the Black Sea.
President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russian forces could observe the Mount Whitney "through binoculars or in the crosshairs of (their) defence systems". read more

On Tuesday, the Black Sea fleet said its ships had rehearsed destroying enemy targets and that air defence systems had been put on alert at its bases in Novorossiysk and on Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. read more
Russia, which severed ties with NATO last month, complains frequently about alliance activity close to its borders or in what it regards as its post-Soviet sphere of influence.
 

danielboon

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Ukraine Gets New Defense Minister to Strengthen Army
November 04, 2021 8:17 AM
Oleksiy Reznikov adjusts his glasses during a session of parliament in Kyiv, Ukraine, Nov. 4, 2021, before Ukraine's parliament voted to confirm him as the country's new defense minister.

Oleksiy Reznikov adjusts his glasses during a session of parliament in Kyiv, Ukraine, Nov. 4, 2021, before Ukraine's parliament voted to confirm him as the country's new defense minister.
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Ukraine on Thursday appointed a new defense minister with a mandate to strengthen the army, as the country remains locked in conflict with pro-Russia separatists.
Oleksiy Reznikov, a lawyer with limited military experience, replaces Andriy Taran, who resigned earlier this week reportedly for health reasons.
A total of 273 lawmakers in the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament voted to approve the candidacy of Reznikov, who was nominated by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Introducing Reznikov to lawmakers in parliament, Zelensky said that his main task would be "to strengthen the defense capacity of the army".
The Ukrainian army is locked in a simmering conflict with pro-Russia separatists in the country's east that erupted after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
"The cost of temporary occupation must constantly increase" for the separatists, Reznikov, 55, told lawmakers ahead of the vote.
He added that a strong army is "one of the most powerful diplomatic" tools, vowing "to improve military compatibility with NATO countries".
Reznikov had been working as the minister for reintegration of separatist-held areas from March 2020, and represented Ukraine in peace talks with Russia and OSCE monitors.
His predecessor Taran was criticized for insufficient reform of the country's under-resourced military.
The appointment comes after Ukraine on Monday denied reports of a Russian military build-up near its eastern border that raised fears of a new escalation in fighting with the separatists.
After a spike in violence early this year, Russia in March amassed around 100,000 troops on Ukraine's borders.
Under pressure from Kyiv's Western allies, Moscow later announced a pullback, but both Ukraine and the United States said at the time the withdrawal was limited.
The conflict has claimed more than 13,000 lives to date.
 

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Russia goes after what it wants, for the moment, and has China engage “us”, to prevent our intervention.

When Russia is done with homework, they join the Chinese to round up spoils, stateside ?

Perhaps that the plan, anyway.......
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
meanwhile in poland
Poland says Belarusian soldiers threatened to fire at its troops
Reuters




2 minute read
WARSAW, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Belarusian soldiers threatened to open fire on Polish troops just across the border, the Polish Defence Ministry said on Thursday, while Belarus summoned Poland's charge d'affaires amid a row over migrants on their common frontier.
Warsaw and the European Union accuse Belarus of deliberately encouraging illegal migrants to enter Poland and other EU states via Belarusian territory as a means to put pressure on the bloc over sanctions. Belarus has repeatedly denied this.

Poland has declared a state of emergency in the border region. It has put up a barbed wire fence on the border and plans to build a wall.
"Yesterday...Polish soldiers located a group of around 250 migrants near the fence," the Polish Defence Ministry said on Twitter. "The Belarusian soldiers guarding them, threatened to open fire at our soldiers."

The Polish soldiers "did not allow themselves to be provoked" and as a result the situation did not escalate further, the ministry added.
On Wednesday, Poland accused Belarus of staging an armed cross-border intrusion and said it had summoned the Belarusian charge d'affaires to protest over what it said was "a deliberate escalation" of the migrant crisis. read more

On Thursday the Belarusian foreign ministry said it summoned Poland's charge d'affaires and issued him with a protest.
"A decisive protest was lodged with the Polish diplomat in connection with the statement spread by the Polish officials about a certain "entry" into Poland from the territory of Belarus by unidentified "armed men in uniform" on November 2," the Belarusian foreign ministry said in a statement.

"Belarus has never provoked and does not intend to provoke border incidents... Artificial operetta performances, organised with the aim of creating a hostile image of Belarus in international public opinion, contradict not only international law, but also all conceivable moral norms."
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Russia goes after what it wants, for the moment, and has China engage “us”, to prevent our intervention.

When Russia is done with homework, they join the Chinese to round up spoils, stateside ?

Perhaps that the plan, anyway.......
EndGameWW3

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15h

If you notice Russia and China are going for 2 areas America doesn't have a defense pact with to defend them. This is well planned out. Russia and China are putting America in a tight spot with Ukraine and Taiwan.
 

FreedomoftheHills

Contributing Member
Ukraine Gets New Defense Minister to Strengthen Army

Oleksiy Reznikov, a lawyer with limited military experience, replaces Andriy Taran

Great.
Now they've got a Bolshevik activist lawyer Defense Minister to go with their anti-Christian comedian President. How completely appropriate...

This can lead nowhere good. US needs to distance itself from this regime as quickly as possible, and avoid any future involvement.

Of course, this will not happen with Blinken and Brandon and company in charge.
 
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