WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

jward

passin' thru
IRGC colonel's assassination highlights Israel's shift in tactics against Iran

After the killing of IRGC colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, reports claim that Israel has multiplied its efforts against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon, against Hezbollah's precision missile project and against terrorism by Iranian agents.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett chairs the weekly Cabinet meeting at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem, Feb. 20, 2022.


Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett chairs the weekly Cabinet meeting at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem, Feb. 20, 2022. - Tsafrir Abayov/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

ben_caspit_color.jpg
Ben Caspit

@BenCaspit
May 24, 2022

Iranian websites list Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodaei as deputy director of the Quds Force’s technological and weapons development, whose purview likely includes the flagship Iranian project to alter Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal into precision missiles capable of striking Israeli targets.
Experts familiar with the issue believe this definition is incorrect. According to Israeli and Western intelligence assessments, Khodaei holds the rank of brigadier general and was very close to the late Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qasem Soleimani who was assassinated in Iraq in January 2020. Khodaei, these sources say, was in charge of terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, which the IRGC is attempting with growing intensity, albeit less than marked success. Khodaei was reportedly involved in several attempts on the lives of Israelis abroad, including the 2012 car bombing against an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi, which seriously injured the envoy’s wife.

Whatever his job entailed, on May 22, two unidentified figures on a motorcycle rode up to the car he was driving and shot him dead. The state news agency IRNA reported he was shot five times as he returned home near Mojahedin-e-Islam Street at about 4 p.m. local time. Reportedly, the assailants made sure he was dead and sped away from the scene. Eyewitnesses reported that the entrance into the small alley where the attack occurred was blocked by a white vehicle, which also sped away once the attack was completed. Khodaei was pronounced dead at the scene.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Iranians did not automatically accuse Israel’s Mossad of the assassination, declaring instead that they would take revenge on the assassins. Despite Iran’s announcement that a manhunt was underway for the attackers, they seem to have disappeared.

The consensus among Middle Eastern and Western intelligence agencies seems to be clear: The Mossad continues to operate on Iranian soil with growing intensity and daring. Israel does not assume responsibility for these actions and Israeli officials refuse categorically to discuss them, but the change in Israeli policy, previously reported here, seems clear. Israel will no longer ignore attempted attacks by proxies of the Iranian regime, and intends to exact a price from those who dispatch them, even in the heart of their capital.
Israel’s counterterrorism campaign has spread from hitting Iranian facilities in Syria into Iran itself. This was the strategy Naftali Bennett advocated when he served as a young minister in previous Israeli security Cabinets. Now that he is prime minister, are we seeing his plans implemented?

In another recently noticeable change, the counterterrorism activity, kidnappings and interrogations are conducted in Iran itself by local people rather than foreign agents. For example, Israel recently confirmed that two Iranian drones heading for Israel were shot down in February. Shortly after, a drone warehouse at an air base in western Iran was attacked and destroyed. Iran, according to foreign news reports, did not attribute the raid to Israel’s air force but rather to the Mossad, suggesting it was an inside job.
One of the most daring operations took place in April, when Mossad agents in Iran reportedly detained an Iranian named Mansour Rasouli who was allegedly a state-hired assassin. Rasouli was reportedly detained in his home, taken to an unknown location and interrogated. Recordings in which he allegedly confesses to having been recruited by the Quds Force to attack an Israeli diplomat in Turkey, a French journalist and an American general in Germany were made public on Israeli and other media.
The entire operation was allegedly conducted in the heart of the Iranian capital and Rasouli was freed at its end. Shortly before, Turkish operatives foiled an attempt to assassinate an Israeli businessman working in Istanbul and Ankara. The Turkish operation was apparently based on intelligence information from Israel.

This shadow war between Israel and Iran, underway for years, appears to be intensifying. It is not focused only on Iran’s nuclear development program, although the November 2020 assassination in Iran of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist in charge of Iran’s nuclear program, was attributed to the Mossad. According to foreign reports, Israel also regularly strikes targets in Syria to foil Iran’s entrenchment there as well as the “precision” project of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities.
The Mossad and domestic Shin Bet security agency have so far thwarted Iran’s growing efforts against Israeli and Jewish targets, some of which appear fairly amateur. Earlier this month, the Shin Bet exposed what it said was an Iranian network that tried to lure Israeli businesspeople, scientists and journalists to professional conferences and seminars abroad, probably in order to kidnap or murder them.
Similar efforts were foiled many times in recent years. At the same time, Israel also exposed an alleged Iranian plan to strike Israeli targets in Kenya, South America and Europe. Khodaei, according to informed intelligence sources, was in advanced stages of carrying out three attacks on Israeli targets in several locations around the world. “These attempts will no longer be executed,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

The shift in Israeli strategy and its apparently increased daring, according to foreign publications, appears to stem from Israel’s commitment, under pressure from the United States, to freeze all activity against Iran’s nuclear program as long as negotiations are ongoing between Iran and world powers. On the one hand, Israeli leaders, among them Bennett and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, continue to declare that even if an agreement is reached with Iran curtailing its nuclear program, Israel would not see itself bound by its terms. On the other hand, there are growing indications that Israel is now focused on countering Iran’s terrorism efforts, its entrenchment in Syria and its precision missile adaptation, rather than on Iran’s nuclear program.

“I’m not sure I would sign off on this definition,” the senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor. “There are many ways to continue to act against the Iranian nuclear program even without sticking a finger into the eye of our American friends or advertising these actions. There is no way Israel will accept the Iranian nuclear program and it will act on its own to defend itself. On this matter — and the United States knows this full well — we are not committed to anything or anyone. Nonetheless, we have to move wisely, according to a correct order of priorities, and consistently. That is what Israel is doing.”

Related Topics
 

jward

passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com

12h

Cleared for publication: 150,000 soldiers serve in Israel's regular army, plus tens of thousands of career officers (via @globesnews); IDF can call up hundreds of thousands of reserve forces at times of war (exact number classified)



Ex-Israeli defense officials warned to avoid visits to Turkey for fear of being targeted by Iran (via intel affairs reporter
@yossi_melman
)
 

jward

passin' thru
Israel Tells U.S. It Killed Iranian Officer, Official Says
Israeli officials say the officer, Sayad Khodayee, was a leader of a covert unit tasked with abductions and killings of Israelis and other foreigners around the world. Iran does not acknowledge that the unit exists.



The funeral of Sayad Khodayee, a colonel in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, in Tehran on Tuesday.

The funeral of Sayad Khodayee, a colonel in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, in Tehran on Tuesday.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
By Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman
May 25, 2022Updated 4:56 p.m. ET

At the funeral in Tehran for a colonel in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, thousands of mourners packed the streets around the cemetery chanting “Death to Israel” and calling for revenge for his killing.
The commanders of the Guards and the Quds Force — the powerful unit within the Guards responsible for operations outside Iran’s borders — were both in attendance, hinting at the colonel’s importance.

Col. Sayad Khodayee, 50, was fatally shot outside his home on a quiet residential street in Tehran on Sunday when two gunmen on motorcycles approached his car and fired five bullets into it, according to state media. Iran has blamed Israel for the killing, which bore the hallmarks of other Israeli targeted killings of Iranians in a shadow war that has been playing out for years on land, sea, air and in cyberspace.
“We will make the enemy regret this and none of the enemy’s evil actions will go unanswered,” Gen. Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said in a speech on Monday. A member of Iran’s National Security Council, Majid Mirahmadi, said the killing was “definitely the work of Israel,” and warned that harsh revenge would follow, according to Iranian media.

A spokeswoman for the Israeli prime minister declined to comment on the killing. But according to an intelligence official briefed on the communications, Israel has informed American officials that it was behind the killing.
The United States has designated the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group — a decision that has been a sticking point in the negotiations with Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran has demanded that the designation be removed as a condition for restoring the deal, but the United States has refused, leaving the negotiations frozen.

Israel is staunchly opposed to the nuclear deal and some Iranian analysts close to the government said the attack was aimed at derailing the nuclear talks at a delicate point and undermining any possibility that Iran and the United States might reach a consensus over the issue of the Guards.
The Israelis told the Americans the killing was meant as a warning to Iran to halt the operations of a covert group within the Quds Force known as Unit 840, according to the intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information. Unit 840 is tasked with abductions and assassinations of foreigners around the world, including Israeli civilians and officials, according to Israeli government, military and intelligence officials.

Image

A photo published by Iranian state media that is said to show the body of Colonel Khodayee in the car where he was shot outside his home in Tehran on Sunday.Credit...Islamic Republic News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Israeli officials said Colonel Khodayee was the deputy commander of Unit 840, and was involved in planning cross-border plots against foreigners, including Israelis.

They said that he was in charge of the unit’s operations in the Middle East and countries neighboring Iran and had been involved over the past two years in attempted terrorist attacks against Israelis, Europeans and American civilians and government officials in Columbia, Kenya, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus.
Iran has never acknowledged the existence of Unit 840.
Iran, instead, has portrayed the colonel as a martyred hero who joined the Revolutionary Guards as a teenager, volunteered as a soldier in the Iran-Iraq war and went on to play a prominent role in the Quds force fighting the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria, a close ally of Iran.
Iranian officials have not commented on Israeli accusations that Colonel Khodayee was involved in transborder terrorism plots.
But some Iranian analysts said that the accusations were aimed at preventing the United States from agreeing to remove the Guards’ designation as a terrorist organization, and thereby block an agreement on the restoration of the nuclear agreement.
“We are also in a disinformation war with Israel,” said Gheis Ghoreishi, an analyst close to Iran’s government. “These provocations are designed to pressure all sides to call off the nuclear deal or push Iran to react in a way that would be damaging. But Iran always takes the long-term calculative approach.”
There were no indications that the colonel was well known outside of defense circles and he did not have the security protocol — bodyguards, armored car and gated housing — that is typical for senior military officials in Iran, according to two people affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.

Iranian state media published photos it said were from the scene, showing a man they identified as Colonel Khodayee slumped behind the wheel of an Iranian-made Kia Pride, still wearing a seatbelt and bleeding from gunshot wounds.
But there were other indications that he may have been a significant figure in the Quds Force: Senior Quds Force members typically use aliases in the countries where they operate, and a Telegram channel affiliated with the Quds Force said the colonel was known in the field by the alias “Colonel Shekar,” Persian for hunter.

Two people affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly, gave a significantly different description of the colonel’s role from the one Israeli officials provided.
They said he was a logistical expert who played a crucial role in the transportation of drone and missile technology to fighters in Syria and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. He was also a tactical adviser to militias fighting in Syria that were trained and armed by Iran, they claimed.

The commander of the Quds Force, Gen. Esmail Ghaani, attended the colonel’s funeral in Tehran on Tuesday — a sign that he viewed the killing of a member of his force as a grave matter. General Ghaani replaced Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani as the Quds Force leader after General Suleimani was killed in a U.S. airstrike in January 2020.

Image

Gen. Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, center, at the colonel’s funeral on Tuesday. “We will make the enemy regret this and none of the enemy’s evil actions will go unanswered,” General Salami said.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
The attack represented another serious security breach in Iran after a wave of high-profile Israeli attacks on nuclear and military targets in recent years.

Israel has a history of assassinating nuclear scientists inside Iran with drive-by shootings by gunmen on motorcycles. But while previous attacks inside Iran were mainly focused on nuclear targets and military infrastructure, this assassination appeared to be a rare instance of Israel targeting Guards members inside Iran in retaliation for plots against its citizens.
In 2020, Israel assassinated the country’s top nuclear scientist and deputy defense minister, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, using a remote-controlled A.I. assisted robot.
The plan to target Colonel Khodayee may date back at least to July 2021. That was when operatives working for Israel’s intelligence agency abducted a farmer named Mansour Rasouli from Uromieh, Iran, according to Israeli intelligence and military officials.

The officials said that the Revolutionary Guards had recruited Mr. Rasouli, who was part of a local drug dealing gang, as a hit man for targets outside of Iran.
The officials said the agents who abducted him were seeking information about the command chain of Unit 840, which Israel says that Colonel Khodayee was a leader of. The agents released Mr. Rasouli after the interrogation, they said.

Image

Israeli officials said Colonel Khodayee was involved in planning transborder plots against foreigners, including Israelis.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
Israel leaked the story of Mr. Rasouli’s abduction to the Saudi-financed, London-based, Persian news channel Iran International in early May, according to an Israeli official. He said the leak was intended to send a message to Iran that Israel had the ability to penetrate deep into Iranian security circles.

It was also intended to warn Iran’s leaders to stop Unit 840’s operations, this official said.
In a video message posted on social media and the BBC Persian language service this month, Mr. Rasouli denied the accusations against him.
He said that a gang of men had thrown tear gas at him, tied his hands, placed a bag over his head and shoved him violently into a car and whisked him away to an undisclosed location. He also said the abductors tortured him, threatened to kill him and his family, and forced him to confess to receiving money from the Revolutionary Guards to carry out assassinations in Europe.
“I deny this,” said Mr. Rasouli in the video. “They took my phone away by force and will probably publish more pictures of me because they are capable of doing anything.”
At the time, Iranian media called the abduction “a fictional tale” and “lies.” But on Monday, the day after Col. Khodayee was killed, Iran’s state television reported that the authorities had arrested a ring of informers spying for Israel who kidnapped and extracted forced confessions from Iranians.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I posted this on the persian gulf thread. Getting my threads mixed up, I'll post it here too.

(fair use applies)

Russia said to pull troops from Syria to bolster forces in Ukraine
In worrying development for Israel, now-abandoned bases reportedly transferred to IRGC and Hezbollah; Moscow has been main force in Syria preventing Iranian expansion

By TOI staff
8 May 2022, 11:01 pm

Russia has begun the process of withdrawing some of its troops in Syria to help bolster its forces in Ukraine, the Moscow Times reported.

According to the Friday report in the independent, Dutch-based paper, several military units have been relocated from bases across the country to three unnamed Mediterranean airports, from where they will be transferred to Ukraine.
The report also said that the now-abandoned bases have been transferred to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards Corps, as well as the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah.

Damascus is a staunch ally of Moscow, which intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015 by launching airstrikes to support Syrian President Bashas Assad’s struggling forces.

Russia’s intervention in Syria marked a turning point in the conflict.

It enabled pro-regime forces to wrest back lost territory in a series of victories against rebels and jihadists involving deadly bombardments and massive destruction.

More than 63,000 Russian military personnel have deployed to Syria, Moscow says.

The new development could be problematic for Israel, which has sought to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria.

In an op-ed for Israel’s Channel 12 news, Middle East pundit Ehud Ya’ari warned that without Russian influence in Damascus and on the ground, Tehran could more easily push its units into Syria, as well as influence the Assad regime.

“Israel has no way of truly influencing the considerations of the Russian deployment in Syria,” Ya’ari said. “However, as they lower their military presence in this country, Iran’s growing grip in the region is a development to worry about. It is worth remembering that Russia, even when cooperating with Iran in Syria, has always sought to limit and shrink Iran’s foothold there and the depth of Iran’s infiltration of Assad’s army and security services.”

Jerusalem and Moscow have in recent years maintained a so-called deconfliction mechanism that works to prevent Israeli and Russian forces from clashing in Syria. Israel has waged a years-long campaign of airstrikes aimed at pro-Iranian fighters located there and at preventing the transfer of Iranian-supplied weaponry.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has avoided criticizing Russia directly for invading Ukraine as Israel seeks to maintain its freedom of movement in the skies of neighboring Syria, which are dominated by Russian forces.

Early on in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched at the end of February, Israel sought to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Moscow and Kyiv, preserving relations with both of its allies and offering to broker talks, while supplying Ukraine with humanitarian assistance.

However, as reports have emerged of Russian atrocities in Ukraine, Israel has shifted its tone and become more outspoken in its criticism.
 

jward

passin' thru
I saw that and was just coming to tell you I have been posting on the issue here, and to ask if "I" got my maps mixed up.

Too many irons in the fire and frogs boiling bout these days, I am lost in a state of permanent confusion.
 

jward

passin' thru
Perhaps daniel will write us up a cheat sheet since we're already inundated and tripping o'er one another with double posting as it is.

I think this was originally Turkey and Greece related, but it has morphed into a catch all for the med. countries- :: scratches head ::
 

jward

passin' thru
Scoop: Biden officials in Saudi Arabia for talks on oil, planned visit
Barak Ravid

Flags of both United States and Saudi Arabia are raised in Riyadh on May 18, 2017. Photo: Ahmed Youssef Elsayed Abdelrehim/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Flags of both United States and Saudi Arabia are raised in Riyadh on May 18, 2017. Photo: Ahmed Youssef Elsayed Abdelrehim/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Two of President Biden’s senior advisers are on a secret visit to Saudi Arabia for talks about a possible arrangement between Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt, a deal to increase oil production and Washington and Riyadh's bilateral relationship, three current and former U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: President Biden is considering visiting Saudi Arabia as part of his planned trip to the Middle East at the end of June. Getting a package of understandings between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on these issues is crucial for the visit to take place, the sources said.
  • Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" and relations have been strained over a number of issues, including the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
  • U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies.
Driving the news: White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and the State Department’s energy envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for meetings with senior Saudi officials, the sources said.
  • The White House declined to comment. A State Department spokesman said it has "no official travel to announce at this time."
  • The Saudi embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
State of play: Axios reported earlier this week that the Biden administration has been quietly mediating among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt on negotiations that, if successful, could be a first step on the road to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
  • It involves finalizing the transfer of two strategic islands — Tiran and Sanafir — in the Red Sea from Egyptian to Saudi sovereignty with Israeli consent and separate potential modest normalization steps by Saudi Arabia towards Israel.
  • If an arrangement is reached, it would be a significant foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration in the Middle East.
What they're saying: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan was asked about the Axios report on Tuesday during a World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Switzerland.
  • He didn’t deny the report, but said more steps must be taken to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • "We have always seen normalization as the end result for a path. Normalization between the region and Israel will bring benefits but we won’t be able to reap those benefits unless we are able to address the issue of Palestine," bin Farhan said.
  • "The fact it remains unresolved continues to bring significant instability to the region. The priority needs to be how to push the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and if it happens it will benefit the whole region," he added.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on a different panel at the Davos conference that Saudi Arabia is an important country and Israel would like it to join the Abraham Accords.
  • "But it's a process and it takes time," he said
The big picture: Increasing oil production has been a longstanding request by the Biden administration to the Saudi government. But the Saudis so far have not shown openness to it.
  • Biden needs Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in order to try to bring gas prices down ahead of the midterm elections.
  • The U.S. also wants increased production from Saudi Arabia in order to be able to push for a wide range of sanctions on Russian oil amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • The Saudis have so far stuck to their agreement with Russia over oil production levels. But this agreement is due to expire in September, which could create an opening for a deal with the U.S. over future production levels.
Go deeper: U.S. negotiating deal among Saudis, Israelis and Egyptians

 

jward

passin' thru
Scoop: U.S. negotiating deal among Saudis, Israelis and Egyptians

Barak Ravid

Chart: Axios Visuals
The Biden administration has been quietly mediating among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt on negotiations that, if successful, could be a first step on the road to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
  • It involves finalizing the transfer of two strategic islands in the Red Sea from Egyptian to Saudi sovereignty, five U.S. and Israeli sources told Axios.
Why it matters: If an arrangement is reached, it would be a significant foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration in the Middle East.
  • The U.S. and Israeli sources said the agreement is not complete and the sensitive negotiations are ongoing, according to the U.S. and Israeli sources who are knowledgeable about the negotiations but who are not at liberty to publicly discuss them. The White House wants an agreement to be reached before President Biden's upcoming trip to the Middle East at the end of June, which could include a stop in Saudi Arabia, according to the sources.
  • The Tiran and Sanafir islands control the Straits of Tiran — a strategic sea passage to the ports of Aqaba in Jordan and Eilat in Israel. Saudi and Egyptian officials say Saudi Arabia gave Egypt control of the islands in 1950. They were later demilitarized as part of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.
  • The White House and the Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment. The embassies of Saudi Arabia and Egypt did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The big picture: According to the sources, the Biden administration believes finalizing an arrangement could build trust between the parties and create an opening to warm relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which do not have official diplomatic relations.
  • It would be the most significant U.S. foreign policy achievement in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords, which were brokered by the Trump administration and led to normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.
  • Saudi Arabia supported the Abraham Accords but made it clear at the time they wouldn't normalize relations with Israel unless there was serious progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Successful negotiations could also lower tensions between the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia.
  • Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" and relations have been strained over a number of issues, including the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies.
Catch up quick: Under the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, Tiran and Sanafir must be a demilitarized zone and have the presence of a force of multinational observers led by the United States.
  • Despite public protests in Egypt, the Egyptian parliament in June 2017 and the country's supreme court in March 2018 approved a deal to transfer sovereignty back to Saudi Arabia.
  • But the deal needed buy-in from Israel because of the 1979 peace treaty. Israel gave in principle its approval to transfer the islands back to Saudi Arabia pending an agreement between Egypt and Saudi Arabia on continuing the work of the multinational force of observers who are in charge of patrolling the islands and ensuring that freedom of navigation in the strait remains unhindered.
  • But the arrangement was never finalized. Several unresolved issues remained, including the work of the multinational force.
Behind the scenes: White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk is the Biden administration's point person in the current mediation efforts, according to the U.S. and Israeli sources.
  • A main issue is the multinational force of observers, the sources said.
  • Saudi Arabia agreed to keep the islands demilitarized and commit to maintaining full freedom of navigation to all ships but wanted to end the presence of the multinational observers in the islands, the sources said.
  • Israeli officials agreed to consider ending the presence of the multinational force but asked for alternative security arrangements that would achieve the same results, according to the sources.
Israel also wants Saudi Arabia to take certain steps as part of broader efforts to reach agreement on several issues, two U.S. and two Israeli sources said.
  • Israel asked that Saudi Arabia allow Israeli airlines to cross more Saudi airspace, which would dramatically shorten flights to India, Thailand and China, the sources added.
  • After the Abraham Accords were announced, Saudi Arabia began to allow Israeli airlines to cross some of their eastern airspace for flights to the UAE and Bahrain.
  • The Israelis also want the Saudis to allow direct flights from Israel to Saudi Arabia for Muslims in Israel who want to go on pilgrimage to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
What’s next: President Biden is planning to go to Saudi Arabia as part of the upcoming Middle East trip, as first reported by CNN.
  • If the visit takes place, it would be Biden's first with bin Salman. The trip would also include a summit with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, several Arab sources confirmed.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
Scoop: U.S. negotiating deal among Saudis, Israelis and Egyptians

Barak Ravid

Chart: Axios Visuals
The Biden administration has been quietly mediating among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt on negotiations that, if successful, could be a first step on the road to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
  • It involves finalizing the transfer of two strategic islands in the Red Sea from Egyptian to Saudi sovereignty, five U.S. and Israeli sources told Axios.
Why it matters: If an arrangement is reached, it would be a significant foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration in the Middle East.
  • The U.S. and Israeli sources said the agreement is not complete and the sensitive negotiations are ongoing, according to the U.S. and Israeli sources who are knowledgeable about the negotiations but who are not at liberty to publicly discuss them. The White House wants an agreement to be reached before President Biden's upcoming trip to the Middle East at the end of June, which could include a stop in Saudi Arabia, according to the sources.
  • The Tiran and Sanafir islands control the Straits of Tiran — a strategic sea passage to the ports of Aqaba in Jordan and Eilat in Israel. Saudi and Egyptian officials say Saudi Arabia gave Egypt control of the islands in 1950. They were later demilitarized as part of the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.
  • The White House and the Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment. The embassies of Saudi Arabia and Egypt did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The big picture: According to the sources, the Biden administration believes finalizing an arrangement could build trust between the parties and create an opening to warm relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which do not have official diplomatic relations.
  • It would be the most significant U.S. foreign policy achievement in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords, which were brokered by the Trump administration and led to normalization agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.
  • Saudi Arabia supported the Abraham Accords but made it clear at the time they wouldn't normalize relations with Israel unless there was serious progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Successful negotiations could also lower tensions between the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia.
  • Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" and relations have been strained over a number of issues, including the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies.
Catch up quick: Under the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, Tiran and Sanafir must be a demilitarized zone and have the presence of a force of multinational observers led by the United States.
  • Despite public protests in Egypt, the Egyptian parliament in June 2017 and the country's supreme court in March 2018 approved a deal to transfer sovereignty back to Saudi Arabia.
  • But the deal needed buy-in from Israel because of the 1979 peace treaty. Israel gave in principle its approval to transfer the islands back to Saudi Arabia pending an agreement between Egypt and Saudi Arabia on continuing the work of the multinational force of observers who are in charge of patrolling the islands and ensuring that freedom of navigation in the strait remains unhindered.
  • But the arrangement was never finalized. Several unresolved issues remained, including the work of the multinational force.
Behind the scenes: White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk is the Biden administration's point person in the current mediation efforts, according to the U.S. and Israeli sources.
  • A main issue is the multinational force of observers, the sources said.
  • Saudi Arabia agreed to keep the islands demilitarized and commit to maintaining full freedom of navigation to all ships but wanted to end the presence of the multinational observers in the islands, the sources said.
  • Israeli officials agreed to consider ending the presence of the multinational force but asked for alternative security arrangements that would achieve the same results, according to the sources.
Israel also wants Saudi Arabia to take certain steps as part of broader efforts to reach agreement on several issues, two U.S. and two Israeli sources said.
  • Israel asked that Saudi Arabia allow Israeli airlines to cross more Saudi airspace, which would dramatically shorten flights to India, Thailand and China, the sources added.
  • After the Abraham Accords were announced, Saudi Arabia began to allow Israeli airlines to cross some of their eastern airspace for flights to the UAE and Bahrain.
  • The Israelis also want the Saudis to allow direct flights from Israel to Saudi Arabia for Muslims in Israel who want to go on pilgrimage to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
What’s next: President Biden is planning to go to Saudi Arabia as part of the upcoming Middle East trip, as first reported by CNN.
  • If the visit takes place, it would be Biden's first with bin Salman. The trip would also include a summit with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, several Arab sources confirmed.


NONE OF THAT WOULD'VE HAPPENED WITHOUT TRUMP. NONE OF IT. So yeah, of course, Biden will take credit. But it's all because of the ground work laid by Trump.

HD
 

jward

passin' thru
US, Kurdish officials call Turkish threats of military operation in Syria 'serious'

Ankara's threats come amid a spat with NATO allies over Finland and Sweden’s request to join the Western alliance.

Turkish military tanks drive past the town of Ariha on the M4 highway in Syria's rebel-held northwestern Idlib province on May 7, 2020.


Turkish military tanks drive past the town of Ariha on the M4 highway in Syria's rebel-held northwestern Idlib province on May 7, 2020. - OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images

Amberin Zaman

@amberinzaman


Jared Szuba

@JM_Szuba
May 26, 2022

Turkey’s National Security Council said on Thursday that Turkey’s “existing and future military operations” along its southern borders were necessary for the country’s security but that they did not target the sovereignty of its neighbors. The ambiguously worded statement left open the possibility that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will make good on threats he made Monday to launch a new offensive targeting US-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
US and Syrian Kurdish officials told Al-Monitor that Turkish threats of intervention to establish a 30-kilometer deep safe zone were being treated as “serious."

“The main target of these operations will be areas which are centers of attacks to our country and safe zones,” Erdogan said earlier this week, without providing any details.
Turkey’s pro-government news channels are already beating the war drums. Ahaber showed footage today of Syrian National Army fighters armed and trained by the Turkish military carrying out what the broadcaster claimed were exercises in preparation for the new operation.
Turkey’s threats come amid a spat with its NATO allies over Finland and Sweden’s request to join the Western alliance in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Erdogan says Turkey will block their membership until the Nordic states address Ankara’s “legitimate security concerns” over their support for Kurdish groups.

Swedish and Finish delegations earlier this week left Ankara empty-handed. The conventional wisdom is that the Ukraine conflict has created fresh space for Turkey to engage in bazaar tactics, bargaining with its Western partners for a laundry list of demands. These include easing US military sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S400s, and providing upgrades for its aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets. Ankara is demanding that Sweden ease its military sanctions over Turkey’s 2019 invasion of northeast Syria and end all dealings with the Syrian Kurds.
However, concessions from the West are but one element of Erdogan’s calculations which are mainly about his own political survival. The Turkish economy is in crisis. The lira is continuing its downward spiral, not least due to Erdogan’s stubborn refusal to raise interest rates. Prices are skyrocketing. Anti-immigrant hysteria is rising in parallel.

A steady trickle of Turkish soldiers coming back in coffins from Iraqi Kurdistan — where the Turkish military’s latest offensive against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is grinding on — is sharpening nationalist feelings.
Pro-government channels have been airing more tear-jerking footage of soldiers of late, along with jingoistic commentary predicting imminent victory. The battle against the PKK is in its 36th year.
Grabbing more Syrian territory from the Kurds to make room for the unwanted millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and pushing back “Kurdish terrorists” in the process, will likely play well across ideological lines. This may explain why the main opposition Republican People’s Party has said little of Erdogan’s plans, while the main nationalist opposition Iyi Party has even cheered him on.
A war against the Syrian Kurds will force the opposition to rally around the flag and into reverting to the sort of hawkish rhetoric that will likely alienate Kurdish voters, another win for Erdogan, amid mounting speculation of snap polls in November. The Kurds are an important swing vote bloc, as dramatically revealed by Istanbul’s redo elections in 2019. Should they spurn the ballot box in a collective fit of disgust, this would give Erdogan a big advantage.
Turkey has launched three major operations in northern Syria since 2016 to torpedo the Syrian Kurds’ efforts to build an autonomous administration uniting Arabs, Kurds and Christians.

Turkey justifies its attacks on the grounds that the administration and its armed wings are part of the PKK and therefore pose an existential threat to Turkey’s security. Mazlum Kobani, the commander in chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the US-led coalition’s top ally against IS, has repeatedly said he wants peace with Turkey. But his calls have cut no ice with Ankara. It keeps reminding Washington that Kobani and many of his colleagues rose through the ranks of the PKK.
Ilham Ahmed, the president of the executive committee of the Syrian Democratic Council, one of the main arms of the Kurdish administration in northeast Syria, summed up Turkey’s tactics in a WhatsApp interview with Al-Monitor. “Erdogan is trying to take advantage of the Ukrainian war by provoking all sides to get concessions from them. For example, Turkey seeks to please Russia by making the PKK issue an obstacle to Finland and Sweden's membership in NATO. It provokes the Europeans with the refugee issue to obtain approval for the security zone [in northeast Syria].”
Fawza al-Yusuf, another top ranking Syrian Kurdish official, said a new Turkish assault would provoke a humanitarian tragedy, uprooting hundreds of thousands of people. “It will also give succor to the Islamic State,” Yusuf told Al-Monitor.
Like Ahmed, she reckons the risk of a Turkish attack is real. Erdogan is “ready to do anything to secure his seat.” However, she added, attacking her people would be “a big mistake” and “cause immense damage” to Turkey. “Turkey cannot stake its own survival on the destruction of the Kurds.”

Should Turkey do so, “it will be because either Russia or the United States failed to stop Erdogan,” Yusuf contended.
But can they?

Since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Turkey’s security establishment has viewed Kurdish gains in Syria as an existential threat. American support for the Syrian Kurds has amplified long-running paranoia over supposed Western plans to carve up Turkey and to establish an independent Kurdish state with bits of Iraq and Syria thrown in.
The prevailing sentiment was best summed up by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu today when he said, “The Americans say they understand our concerns but they don’t do anything to address them.”
Erdogan has been testing the waters for some time to bite into further chunks of northern Syria. Until recently Russia was believed to have opposed any such moves. The United States has been more explicit. This week, State Department spokesman Ned Price said the United States was “deeply concerned about reports and discussions of potential increased military activity in northern Syrian and in particular its impact there” including on US Special Operation Forces deployed in northeast Syria.

Price added that Washington expected Turkey to abide by a 2019 agreement to halt its military operations in the Kurdish-controlled zone, saying that maintaining the ceasefire lines was “crucial for Syria’s stability.”
There’s been no clear indication as to where Turkey may focus an attack, whether around Tal Rifaat, Ayn Issa, Kobani or elsewhere, a Biden administration official told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. But the White House is treating Erdogan’s threat as serious, the official said.
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Thursday echoed the State Department’s concern about Ankara’s intentions, but said he was not aware of any senior-level military dialogue with the Turkish armed forces over the issue.
Kirby said US military officials are in daily contact with Kurdish-led forces in Syria. Ahmed, however, told Al-Monitor that as of Thursday morning, neither US nor Russian officials had offered assurances of security in response to Turkey’s threats.
Ankara, she said, “is talking about a security zone that endangers the lives of millions of people and would cause another humanitarian disaster.”
“Turkey is talking about a distance of 30 km, which includes areas that contain prisons holding thousands of ISIS members,” she told Al-Monitor. Ahmed noted the risk of a potential “catastrophe for international security” should any those prisons again be breached.

It remains to be seen whether US troops will defend their areas of operation if they are encroached upon by Turkish forces or their proxies. A spokesperson for the US-led military coalition declined to comment on the matter.
James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Turkey and the Trump Administration’s top Syria envoy, noted that Turkey already controls large swathes of Syrian territory along its border. Connecting those territories to create an expanded “safe zone” in which to dump Syrian refugees would require taking Russian-controlled areas, such as Kobani and Manbij.
In the October 2019 Sochi agreement, Russia agreed to have the Syrian Kurdish forces leave those zones. However, there is “no evidence that they did so or that Russia even tried,” Jeffrey said. “So my question is whether Turkey is dealing with Russia on this. An incursion into areas where Russian forces are does not sound smart,” he told Al-Monitor.

However, PKK sources speculate that both Kobani and Manbij may prove irresistible. Kobani is where the United States and the Syrian Kurds first forged their alliance against the IS in a battle that caught the world’s imagination. Manbij is where Washington failed to keep its promise to Ankara to eject Syrian Kurdish-led forces once the city was freed from IS.
Control of both cities would ease Turkey’s plans to connect areas it controls in the Euphrates Shield zone with those that it invaded in October 2019. Wherever Turkey points its guns, said Yusuf, “we have taken all necessary precautions. We are ready to defend ourselves.”

 

jward

passin' thru
Gazans said to ready rockets, Israelis prepare shelters ahead of Jerusalem Day march https://timesofisrael.com/gazans-said-to-ready-rockets-israelis-prepare-shelters-ahead-of-jerusalem-day-march/ via
@timesofisrael

Palestinian terror groups in Gaza on Thursday were said to be readying rocket launchers to fire at Israel if it holds a highly charged nationalist march through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City as scheduled on Sunday.


Israel insisted that the march would indeed go ahead as planned, and would be routed through the Muslim Quarter as in the past.


With tensions soaring ahead of the march, which led to an 11-day Israel-Gaza war when it was held last year, both the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror groups also put their armed wings on high alert, Israeli and Palestinian media sources reported. At the same time, the Al-Quds Palestinian daily said the Gaza groups are not interested in being drawn into a conflict at this time, as it would disrupt work to rehabilitate Gaza from last year’s fighting with Israel.




Nonetheless, Channel 12 news said Hamas had fired four rockets into the sea off Gaza as a pointed message. And a joint statement issued after a meeting of armed Palestinian groups in Gaza warned that Sunday’s Jerusalem Day Flag March was “a powder keg that will explode the whole area… All options are on the table to struggle against the Israeli criminals.”


Hamas also urged Palestinians to head to the contested Temple Mount — the holiest place in Judaism, and site of Islam’s third-holiest shrine — on Jerusalem Day “to thwart the occupation’s plans.” The Flag March does not enter the Temple Mount area.



Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories

Newsletter email address
By signing up, you agree to the terms




Israel, in response, told Gaza’s Hamas rulers via international mediators that the Jerusalem Day parade would go forward as planned even at the risk of a security escalation, Channel 12 news said. Israel has also reportedly warned the terror groups that any rocket fire would be met with counterstrikes.


A soldier from the Israeli military’s Home Front Command walks outside a house in the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon that had been struck by a Hamas rocket on May 20, 2021. (Edi Israel/Flash90)

US Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides reportedly expressed concern over the Flag March in a phone call with Public Security Minister Omer Barlev, worrying that it could fuel an escalation of violence. Barlev responded that he understood the concern and stressed police were working to prevent any provocations or friction. But “My father [Haim Barlev] as deputy chief of staff gave the order to liberate Jerusalem. This is our capital,” the minister was quoted as saying. “The march is a 30-year tradition.”
Behind the scenes, the Biden administration has been pushing Israel to re-route the Flag March away from the Damascus Gate and Muslim Quarter, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.

Inside Israel, municipal authorities in one town near the Gaza Strip readied public bomb shelters for use Thursday, as police officials expressed confidence that tensions could be kept from spiraling out of control.
Sunday marks Jerusalem Day, the anniversary of the unification of the city during the 1967 Six Day War. Israeli nationalists mark the day with an annual march of flag-waving participants, which usually proceeds via Damascus Gate through the Old City’s densely populated Muslim Quarter and to the Western Wall.
A year ago, Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem during the march, which came amid heightened tensions over the planned eviction of Palestinian families from East Jerusalem homes, sparking an 11-day Israel-Gaza war.
Police blocked nationalists intending to hold a similar march through the Old City last month, but gave the go-ahead for the Jerusalem Day parade to follow its traditional route, reigniting Palestinian anger and setting war drums beating again.
Israel has stressed to Hamas via mediators that the march route is no different from that of previous years, and does not include the Temple Mount.
Officials have insisted that the march will go ahead even at the risk of an escalation with Gaza, or Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group has also made threats over the event. Officials have also rejected the idea of diverting the procession to take a less provocative route, according to reports Thursday.

“There is no reason to change the route of the march, even if there is rocket fire,” a senior police officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Channel 12 news. “We should not be concerned about marching within the boundaries of Israel and realizing our sovereignty, even if they fire rockets,” he said.
The officer said previous experience had shown that giving in to threats only cost the country more in the long run. “What if next time the threats are made on the eve of Independence Day?” he asked. “We will stop celebrating.”
Regarding concerns over a repeat of deadly clashes in Israeli cities with mixed Arab and Jewish populations, as unfolded last year against the background of the war with Gaza, the officer said that “this year we are stronger in the mixed cities and are ready for any scenario.”
Kobi Yaakobi, a senior Jerusalem area police officer, told Channel 12: “We don’t need to allow terror groups to set the agenda for us.”
Palestinian terror groups had threatened Wednesday they would not allow Israeli “provocations” to go unanswered.
A senior source with knowledge of the terror groups told the Al-Quds daily that Hamas and Islamic Jihad rocket-firing cells are on high alert, Hebrew media reported Thursday. But the groups have also given clear instructions that no rockets be fired by any groups unless an order is given from the senior commanders, the source said.

AP21166611022221-640x400.jpg

Jewish nationalists wave Israeli flags during the Flag March next to the Damascus gate, outside Jerusalem’s Old City, Tuesday, June 15, 2021. (AP/Ariel Schalit)

Hamas called for Palestinians to head to Al-Aqsa Mosque at dawn on Jerusalem Day “to thwart the occupation’s plans.”
“We warn the leaders of the occupation against any miscalculations in Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa. We reiterate that we are proceeding with all strength, determination and certainty in defending our Jerusalem,” it said.

The Palestinian Authority called on Palestinians to gather at Al-Aqsa Mosque on Friday and “remain there in order to thwart the plan to divide Al-Aqsa.” The PA’s Religious Affairs Ministry reportedly prepared a missive to be read out in mosques during the weekly sermons this Friday.
The document cites a recent controversial Jerusalem court decision — which was overturned by a higher court on Wednesday — sympathetic to Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, and calls the Flag March “a blow to the honor and faith of Islamic nation.” It describes the marchers as “delegations of war against the Palestinian people and the Islamic nation,” Channel 12 news reported.
Israel has sent messages to Hamas via Qatari and Egyptian mediators that it is not interested in an escalation. At the same time, the IDF has readied Iron Dome missile defense batteries and drawn up attack plans in case they are needed, according to Hebrew media reports. Palestinian media reported many IDF drones operating in the skies over Gaza Thursday and said terror groups have cleared out of their positions as a precaution.
On the Israeli side of the frontier, the Sderot Municipality began deploying mobile bomb shelters around the rocket-scarred border town, according to the Kan public broadcaster.

Police said Wednesday it would deploy some 3,000 officers to guard the march, as well as thousands more to keep the peace around the city and other areas where tensions are liable to boil over.

But Old City vendors said they would close up shop ahead of the march, accusing participants of causing havoc and attacking Palestinians and their property during the annual event in past years.
“I think it will be much worse because of the unruly behavior of the settlers in the Old City,” one Arab vendor told Channel 13 news.
Amir Ben Kiki, a senior Jerusalem police officer, told Channel 13 news: “We will prepare to enable freedom of religion, freedom of speech as a sovereign state.”
Border Police Cmdr. Eli Gozlan, of the investigations and intelligence department, told the Ynet website that the biggest concern is incitement on social media, led by Hamas which is spreading “fake news.”
“For over thirty years we have been marching along the same route,” Gozlan said. “There is no intention to change the existing route, and certainly not to enter the Temple Mount. All the lies being spread in media are a fatal blow to democracy and are inciting violence and rioting.”

F210615YS124-640x400.jpg

Police officers guard during the ‘Flag March’ at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem’s Old City, June 15, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

He said there were no specific warnings of threats to the march.
He added that officers would be prepared to prevent any provocateurs among the marchers from trying to provoke trouble.

 

jward

passin' thru
May 27, 2022
Israel Reveals Lebanon War Plans in Message to Hezbollah


The current IDF target bank in Lebanon is 20 times larger than it was before the 2006 war against Hezbollah. The list of sites for attack includes headquarters, weapons depots, and other strategic assets, the Jerusalem Post reports.


Israel’s war plans call for the deployment of massive firepower, combined with an incursion deep into Lebanon and the takeover of rocket launching sites. The IDF will urge south Lebanon residents to leave their homes before starting the heavy assault, N12 News reported.


The army also plans to target and eliminate Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces before they reach the Israeli border, the report said. The IDF paved 2,500 kilometers of new roads to enable rapid mobilization of forces to the northern front.


Israel will deploy advanced weaponry to maximize the destruction of enemy assets, including drones, newest model tanks, and missiles. The IDF will also mobilize its Ghost unit, a special force armed with cutting-edge weapons and utilizing new combat methods.


Notably, the army deployed Ghost, as well as armored forces and attack helicopters, in a large Lebanon war exercise this month, Walla News said. The next conflict in Lebanon is expected to be more violent and devastating than the 2006 war, with both sides adopting a more aggressive combat doctrine.
 

jward

passin' thru



EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

12h

Hamas threatens war over Jerusalem March - TV7 Israel News
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1530324903194411009?s=20&t=FRApsizkn-Db7CGH7V8Xdg



The Islamist terror group that controls Gaza has warned Israel it risks another war if the Jerusalem Day parade is permitted to be held on Sunday.


By Erin Viner



“I expect that Hamas and the other (Islamist terror) factions are ready to do all they can to prevent this event, regardless of how much it costs us,” the head of the Hamas Department of Politics and Foreign Relations Bassem Naim told Reuters.


“The decision is in the hands of the Israelis and the international community. They can avoid a war and escalation if they stop this mad (march),” he said.


The annual flag march is a national holiday that celebrates Israel’s overwhelming victory during the 1967 Middle East war, which culminated in the liberation of then-Jordanian-held east Jerusalem where the ancient city of David and the Temple Mount are located. The Temple Mount is considered by the Jewish People as the holiest site in the world, also revered to Christians.


This year’s event will commemorate the 55th anniversary of the city’s reunification. Scores of Israelis traditionally join the parade while waving the national flag.


Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has defended a decision by defense officials including Public Security Minister Omer Bar-Lev to permit Sunday’s march along the traditional path, which organizers maintain is an established “status quo” route.


Naim insisted that the increasingly provocative Hamas would never accept such a determination.


Israel deems the whole of Jerusalem as its eternal capital and the center of the Jewish faith.


Palestinians demand the eastern section as a capital of a future state. Muslims, who built the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque atop the ruins of the biblical temples refer to the contested area as Haram al Sharif, or the Noble Sanctuary, regarded as Islam’s third holiest place.


Gaza terror groups including the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fired a barrage of rockets into Israel last year as the 2021 march got underway, triggering the 11-day war, Operation Guardian of the Walls.


The current increasing cacophony of threats from the Gaza Strip over the projected 2022 route has raised the potential of a new conflict, although Naim said the next confrontation could even be expanded.


“Who said that the reaction will only be from Gaza? Perhaps you will have suicide bombers inside Jerusalem, I don’t know. Not ordered from us,” he claimed, referring to the recent surge of Arab/Palestinian terror attacks in Israel.


“The battle isn’t with Hamas alone, it is with the Palestinian people,” he declared.


Palestinian terrorist suicide bombings in Israeli cities were a hallmark of the Second Intifada (Palestinian uprising) between 2000 and 2005 but were successfully curtailed after Israel’s construction of its security barrier with the West Bank.


Tensions with Palestinians have spiked since commemoration of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in April, with Jerusalem and the flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque compound often the focal point of clashes with Israeli riot police working to maintain calm.


The Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group has also threatened Israeli over the march. There will be “an explosion in the region” if Israel “violates” Muslim holy sites in the Old City, proclaimed Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah yesterday.


In related developments, the United States State Department has banned all American government employees and their families from entering the Old City at any time today (due to Islamic Friday prayers), as well as the 29 May date of the parade. They are also forbidden to enter the Old City after dark until at least Monday, or pass through the Damascus, Herod’s or and Lions’ Gates. While making no specific mention of the Jerusalem Day Flag March, the US Embassy statement said the ban is being imposed due to “ongoing tensions and potential security issues.”


Israeli security forces have already bolstered their presence and raised the alert level in Jerusalem to prevent the outbreak of attacks.


According to a statement obtained by TV7, Prime Minister Bennett today received an operational update on the police deployment ahead of the events, “particularly on the intelligence efforts and the reinforcement of units on the ground in order to allow Jerusalem Day to be celebrated and the flag parade to be held in a safe and orderly manner.”


Prime Minister Bennett also agreed that the march will “be held as usual according to the planned route, as it has been for decades; therefore, the parade will end at the Western Wall and will not go on the Temple Mount.”


The statement added that “Regular assessments and consultations will be held on the issue, on all levels, throughout the weekend and on Sunday.”

 

jward

passin' thru
Iranian 'immunity' is over, Israeli Prime Minister Bennett says
Reuters


2 minute read
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett attends weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett attends a weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, May 29, 2022. Gil Cohen-Magen/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

JERUSALEM, May 29 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Sunday Iran would not go unpunished for instigating attacks through its proxies, speaking a week after the assassination in Tehran of a Revolutionary Guards colonel that has been blamed on Israel.

Hassan Sayad Khodai, accused by Israel of plotting attacks against its citizens worldwide, was shot dead at the wheel of his car by two people on a motorcycle. The tactic echoed previous killings in Iran that focused on nuclear scientists and were widely pinned on Mossad. read more


Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency said members of an Israeli intelligence service network had been discovered and arrested by the Guards immediately after the Tehran shooting.

Bennett's office, which oversees intelligence agency Mossad, has declined to comment on the assassination.

However, in broadcast remarks to his ministers on Sunday, Bennett accused Iran of repeatedly targeting Israeli interests.


"For decades, the Iranian regime has practiced terrorism against Israel and the region by means of proxies, emissaries, but the head of the octopus, Iran itself, has enjoyed immunity," Bennett said.

"As we have said before, the era of the Iranian regime's immunity is over. Those who finance terrorists, those who arm terrorists and those who send terrorists will pay the full price," he added.

Iran has promised to retaliate for Khodai's death and pointed the finger at Israel. read more



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Israel on high alert following security incidents in Iran
Move comes in wake of Iran's promises of retaliation for assassination of Revolutionary Guard Colonel Sayyad Khodaei and attack on Islamic Republic’s sensitive Parchin military site, both of which Tehran attributes to Israel
Ynet |
Published: 05.29.22, 18:09


The string of security incidents which rocked Iran last week, and which Tehran attributes to Jerusalem, prompted Israel to increase its alert levels for fear of Iranian retaliation, officials said Sunday.

The move came in the wake of last week's assassination of Sayyad Khodaei - a senior member of the Revolutionary Guard Corps who was shot dead outside his home in Tehran - and the attack on the Islamic Republic’s sensitive Parchin military site, both of which Tehran has attributed to the Israeli security agency Mossad.

חסן ציאד ח'דאירי

Sayyad Khodaei

While no one has taken official responsibility for Khodaei’s assassination, The New York Times reported that Israel has informed the Biden administration of its operation to take out the Iranian colonel - himself believed to have been the architect of a number of plots to attack and kidnap Israelis and Jews around the world.

Israel, for its part, described the leak as a breach of trust between Jerusalem and Washington, with whom the Jewish State cooperates closely in matters of security and intelligence, and warned that Israelis may be put at risk of Iranian vengeance in the wake of the NYT report.
Officials in Israel believe the leak originated from administration officials who oppose Israel's actions against Iran out of concern that they would be harmful to the negotiations on a return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

Iran's Parchin military site

Iran's Parchin military site
(Photo: Google Earth, GeoEye)

Khodaei’s death was followed by a report in the semi-official Fars news agency, which stated that an engineer had died and another employee was wounded in an incident at the Parchin site, where Iran is known to develop high-tech weapons as well as nuclear technologies for its controversial nuclear program.
The NYT also reported that the facility was attacked by several drones, which exploded on the exterior of one of the military site’s research buildings. The newspaper added the operation was similar to previous attacks on nuclear targets in Iran - attributed to Israel.

 

jward

passin' thru
Israel to simulate war with Hezbollah in Cyprus
Part of Chariots of Fire, troops from IAF, Navy and elite commando units will simulate war deep inside Lebanon.
By ANNA AHRONHEIM
Published: MAY 29, 2022 12:01

Updated: MAY 29, 2022 22:38
Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

IDF soldiers prepare for a drill with Cyprus as part of the month-long Chariots of Fire exercise.



Hundreds of IDF soldiers and reservists from units across various military corps will be heading to Cyprus this week for a joint drill simulating war against Hezbollah deep inside enemy territory.

The exercise in Cyprus, called Agapinor-2022 or Beyond the Horizon, is part of the IDF’s month-long Chariot of Fire drill, which aims to improve the military’s capabilities in an intense, multi-front and prolonged war on all of Israel’s borders. The drill, beginning on Sunday, will last until June 2.

Forces from the Cypriot National Guard will join the IDF troops as well as several Israel Air Force platforms. Israeli naval units, including the elite Shayetet 13, as well as forces from the Yahalom special combat engineering unit, Oketz canine unit, intelligence forces and troops from the C4I and Cyber Defense Directorate, will also take part in the drill.

The drill will simulate extensive combat based on multi-branch cooperation from the General Staff to tactical level.

“The exercise enables the IDF to improve the readiness of its forces participating in the exercise while strengthening the cooperation and abilities at the tactical level,” the Israeli military said.

IDF soldiers preparing to take part in a drill with Cyprus, as part of the Chariots of Fire exercise. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
zoom-image-icon.svg
IDF soldiers preparing to take part in a drill with Cyprus, as part of the Chariots of Fire exercise. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
Troops are expected to train on varying types of terrain, including wilderness, urban, rural and high-altitude mountainous areas on the island, which will act as a substitute for intense fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to the IDF, it is “unique and the first of its kind” that presents an opportunity for troops to quickly adapt to unfamiliar territory while dealing with emergency scenarios and to train distant logistic abilities that the military might face when dealing with emergency and unfamiliar scenarios.

Troops are expected to train on varying types of terrain, including high-altitude, mountainous as well as in urban and open areas on the island, which will act as a substitute for intense fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon.


According to the IDF, it is “unique and the first of its kind” that presents an opportunity for troops to quickly adapt to unfamiliar territory while dealing with emergency scenarios and other ways that “simulates reality as much as possible.”

While the two countries have carried out several drills in recent years, according to local Cypriot news website Philenews, the exercise is the country’s largest joint military exercise with Israel.

The IDF said in a statement that the goal of the drill was to improve the readiness of troops and their abilities to conduct missions “deep in enemy territory while combining and maximizing multi-disciplinary capabilities.”

The exercise will see combat helicopters assisting ground forces, evacuating the wounded by assault helicopters, directing and accompanying ground forces as well as dropping off logistical equipment by IAF transport planes.

The drill “is an important component in maintaining the capabilities of the forces for a variety of emergencies,” the IDF said in a statement. “Cooperation between armies helps increase regional stability and the ability to face common challenges.”

The exercise will see combat helicopters assisting ground forces, performing emergency evacuations with IAF transport helicopters, directing and escorting forces using visual intelligence and facilitating the movement of logistics equipment through the heavy transport squadrons.

The drill “constitutes an important component in maintaining the readiness of the IDF for a variety of operational scenarios,” the military said in a statement, adding that “‘military cooperation between the two nations increases joint regional stability and reinforces the ability to face shared security challenges.”


Ahead of the drill that he is expected to visit later in the week, Defense Minister Benny Gantz spoke with his Cypriot counterpart, Defense Minister Charalambos Petrides, on Sunday.

The two men “discussed its relevance to our operational readiness,” Gantz wrote on Twitter, adding that he “emphasized the strategic bond between our countries, which contributes to regional stability.”
“[The drill] highlights the excellent relations between the two countries in recent years in the field of defense and security.”
Cyprus

Shared regional interests
Israel, Cyprus and neighboring Greece are close allies and share a number of strategic interests. While all three have shared economic interests, such as the ambitious project to build an undersea gas pipeline from Israel to Cyprus to Crete to mainland Greece, the countries also hope to keep the Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis from growing.

In light of new rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu reportedly sought an explanation for the drill during his recent visit to Israel. According to KAN public broadcaster, Jerusalem informed Ankara that the massive training exercise in Cyprus was related solely to military training.

Turkish troops invaded and occupied the northern part of Cyprus in 1974 and tensions between Larnaca and Ankara remain tense.

In March, Cypriot military chief Lt.-Gen. Demokritos Zervakis visited Israel for the first time and met with senior IDF officials, including Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi, and held “strategic-operational meetings” that focused on “opportunities to expand cooperation between the two militaries,” the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said at the time.

Thousands of soldiers and reservists are taking part in the drill dubbed Chariots of Fire, which will see all commands including the Israel Air Force, Israel Navy and regular and reserve forces taking part.

The goal of the three-week drill is to improve the readiness of the entire military and examine the ability of troops to carry out a powerful and prolonged campaign against enemy forces on various fronts simultaneously. According to the IDF, the drill is unique and unprecedented in scope and will enable the army to maintain a high level of readiness in an ever-changing region.

During the drill, the IAF will also practice striking targets far from Israel while troops continue to contend with a multi-front war on the country’s borders.

 

jward

passin' thru





Intelsky
@Intel_sky

59m

An Israeli Air Strike is highly likely on Syria in the next few hours. #IAF readiness increased above normal levels.
Syrian ADS should be on high alert for the next 48 hours. Israeli offensive very probable.
Update: #IAF Boeing 707-366C 295 also joined. Currently 6 Israeli military planes near Lebanon; very unusual.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member

Turkish nationalist leader says US military bases in Greece pose 'threat' to Turkey's security
12:40, 01.06.2022

Turkish nationalist leader said U.S. military bases located in Greece pose a direct "threat" to Turkey's security, Fox News reported.

"Greece is playing with fire," NHP leader Devlet Bahceli said in an address to Turkey’s parliament. Bahceli claimed US bases pose "a threat to our security" and said "America is using the Greek side as a pawn."

Earlier this month, the U.S. and Greece signed a five-year bilateral military agreement to strengthen defense. The agreement will give the U.S. access to three bases on the Greek mainland.

Bahceli accused the U.S. of using the already troubled Greek-Turkish relationship to try to "push [Ankara] into a hot conflict environment."

After the end of World War II, more than a dozen islands were ceded to Greece under the 1947 Paris Agreement. But in 1964, Turkey claimed that the 12 islands had been "effectively stolen from it in 1912," and offered to give Greece six islands as a sign of good neighborly relations. Greece refused, and the two countries have been in dispute by land, air and sea ever since.

“The subject of 12 islands is our wound that has not yet healed. They have been unjustly usurped from Turkey by foot tricks. The stolen property must be returned to its owner,” Bahceli said.
 

jward

passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
1h

Israel deploys submarine & warships in Red Sea for large naval exercise (via @WallaNews)
 

jward

passin' thru
June 1, 2022
Israeli Air Force Simulates Large-Scale Assault on Iran


Home
Intelligence
Israeli fighter jets (Archive: IAF/CC)

The Israeli Air Force simulated a large strike in Iran overnight. About 100 aircraft took part in the exercise, Channel 13 reports.

Fighter jets and refueling planes took off from airbases nationwide and headed west over the Mediterranean Sea. In a real-life strike, the Air Force will be flying a similar distance eastward.

The Air Force practiced a long-range flight, midair refueling, and remote strikes. No information was provided about any US participation in the exercise.

The drill came as Israel appeared to intensify its covert operations against Iran in recent weeks. With the failure to secure a new nuclear deal so far, Israeli leaders and defense chiefs may see an opening for more aggressive moves against key Iranian targets.
 

jward

passin' thru
Western democracies are prepping
5-6 minutes

While the public in Israel is looking at what is going on at home – Palestinian terrorist, the political crisis, and Arabs running amok in mixed cities – the international arena is undergoing an upheaval that will affect our own region and the room Israel has to maneuver. These are the shockwaves and aftershocks of the Ukraine war, which is leading western democracies to make new preparations in light of what they have learned about Russian aggression.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The most notable event in this drama is Finland and Sweden's decision to join NATO. This reflects a fundamental acknowledgement that democracies have to defend themselves like Spartans against those who see their Athenian ways as weakness that is asking for aggression and conquest. There is nothing new in admitting that open societies are vulnerable: the choice of openness reflects a willingness to opt for the flexible resilience of social and political pluralism over barricaded rigidity. But recently, the extent of the authoritarian forces' aggression and audacity have been exposed as they try to bring down these open societies, as has the need to outflank them by patrolled borders to protect the "soft" underbelly of the liberal way of life. In a certain sense, this is a welcome swing away from the "Swedish" western European model to the Israeli model, which combines stringent force against enemies with tolerant openness at home.

This trend calls to mind the "defensive democracy," a lesson learned after the Nazis took control of the Weimar Republic. The main principle is to outlaw elements that spurn the "rules of the game" of democratic regimes to prevent hostile takeovers through these same rules being perverted. This strategy of defense challenges the tendency to reject any limits to pluralism under the argument that the meaning of the term is a lack of limits. The tragic attempt proved the need to outlaw the Nazis in order to preserve German democracy.

The Europeans have recently discovered that two elements that reject pluralism per se – an authoritarian superpower and a patriarchal, aggressive culture – pose a threat to the free, open way of life on the continent. The superpower is Putin's Russia, and the culture is one that is embraced by many of the Arab, Pakistani, Afghan, and other Muslim immigrants who came by the millions and gained a foothold in Europe without trying to integrate into its system of values. This is where, they realized too late, "defensive democracy" is needed against foreign players who come into those democracies.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

For years, Russia has been waging two kinds of war on open societies: in the cyber sector, which aims to bring down belief in pluralistic society and democratic rule; and a consistent attempt to get Europe hooked on Russian energy. The strategic reality is clear, but most political leaderships and elites opted to delude themselves and deny its ramifications.

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder betrayed his people and western civilization when he opened the door to Russian gas, and as soon as he stepped down received enormous payments from Putin for leading Europe's ongoing capitulation on that matter. The chancellor who came after him and misled her voters by her cautious, responsible image, opened the gates to Europe to over 1 million immigrants, most of whom espouse a culture that endangers the open and pluralistic lifestyle as well as to ever-increasing dependence on Russian gas, which funded Putin's corruption, autocracy, and wars.

It took Europe mass killings, 6 million people who fled their country and another 8 million internally displaced to realize that it was at war. Only now is it willing to forgo the economic advantages (cheap gas and ridiculously low expenditure on defense) and its humanist image in the media and among the irresponsible elite, which took the form of allowing immigrants indiscriminate entry. Only now is Finland realizing that there is no place for neutrality, even armed, even though it helped them against the Nazis.

It's as if in some parallel universe, the Europeans and the Biden administration continue to deny the severity of the Iranian threat, are willing to spend hundreds of billions (in lifted sanctions) to fund Iran's aggression and aspirations of nuclear weapons and regional hegemony in exchange for an absolutely worthless nuclear deal. Let us hope that the wake-up call from radical delusions of reconciliation can come without witnessing a world war.
 
Top