http://news.sky.com/story/1348218/ebola-wont-spread-in-uk-but-africa-needs-us
Ebola Won't Spread In UK But Africa Needs Us
Suspected cases of the virus in Britain are likely to be identified quickly and doctors are on the alert.
Thomas Moore
Health and Science Correspondent
The more serious the disease, the more important it is to get the facts straight - or the public starts to panic.
But recent reports on ebola have suggested not only that it could become airborne, but that there's a 50-50 chance the disease will be in the UK within three weeks.
Both are unlikely.
The virus is mutating. Every time it spreads to another patient and starts to reproduce itself there are random changes to its genetic material.
But that doesn't mean it is going to transmit itself in a new way.
Video: Liberia Gripped By Ebola Virus Fear
HIV is also spread by some body fluids and also mutates rapidly.
But even though it has been around for longer and has spread far wider than ebola, it has still not become airborne.
Much more likely is that the virus becomes less deadly - and paradoxically more of a threat.
Currently it is rapidly lethal in more than 70% of patients.
If the virus became a little less virulent and took longer to kill its victims, carriers would be able to infect more people before becoming incapacitated.
Greater transmission would make it more difficult to bring under control.
Video: Ebola Outbreak: On The Front Line
Doctors in the UK are on the alert.
Public Health England has sent GPs a flowchart on how to assess patients who develop a fever after recently returning from the ebola hotspots.
Suspected cases would be swiftly isolated.
Some newspapers have reported that there is a 50% chance of the virus arriving in the UK by 24 October. Scary stuff.
In fact the scientist who did the research says the current flight restrictions to the region mean the risk is 15%.
And even that figure looks a little pessimistic.
1/11
The virus has only been carried outside the hotspots by three passengers.
In Nigeria it subsequently spread to 19 other people, but there have been no new cases for nearly 40 days - well beyond the three-week incubation period of the virus.
In Senegal, It doesn't look like the patient who carried the virus over the border infected anybody else.
And in the US, doctors are keeping a close eye on the contacts of an infected traveller from Liberia.
So all that tells me two things.
First the virus can be carried by air passengers, but rarely.
Video: What are we sending to stop Ebola?
And second, in countries with effective health systems that can rapidly quarantine patients and trace their contacts, the virus just doesn't get going.
So spare a thought, better still some cash, for those in three of the poorest countries in West Africa.
But keep calm and carry on.
Typical "It wont happen to us" attitude - personally I have everything in place - just in case 'they' are wrong. Hubby thinks I have lost the plot when the Tyvek suits and respirators arrived - with 200 gloves, bed incontinence sheets .................. wait until all the herbal stuff arrives as well - he will probably send for the 'men in white coats' for me. However I would rater spend a couple of hundred pounds now than not be able to get the stuff later on. IF 'they' are right then he can use the suits to redecorate the house in a couple of years time ...... and at our age we might need the incontinence bed sheets within a year or two anyway
Ebola Won't Spread In UK But Africa Needs Us
Suspected cases of the virus in Britain are likely to be identified quickly and doctors are on the alert.
Thomas Moore
Health and Science Correspondent
The more serious the disease, the more important it is to get the facts straight - or the public starts to panic.
But recent reports on ebola have suggested not only that it could become airborne, but that there's a 50-50 chance the disease will be in the UK within three weeks.
Both are unlikely.
The virus is mutating. Every time it spreads to another patient and starts to reproduce itself there are random changes to its genetic material.
But that doesn't mean it is going to transmit itself in a new way.
Video: Liberia Gripped By Ebola Virus Fear
HIV is also spread by some body fluids and also mutates rapidly.
But even though it has been around for longer and has spread far wider than ebola, it has still not become airborne.
Much more likely is that the virus becomes less deadly - and paradoxically more of a threat.
Currently it is rapidly lethal in more than 70% of patients.
If the virus became a little less virulent and took longer to kill its victims, carriers would be able to infect more people before becoming incapacitated.
Greater transmission would make it more difficult to bring under control.
Video: Ebola Outbreak: On The Front Line
Doctors in the UK are on the alert.
Public Health England has sent GPs a flowchart on how to assess patients who develop a fever after recently returning from the ebola hotspots.
Suspected cases would be swiftly isolated.
Some newspapers have reported that there is a 50% chance of the virus arriving in the UK by 24 October. Scary stuff.
In fact the scientist who did the research says the current flight restrictions to the region mean the risk is 15%.
And even that figure looks a little pessimistic.
1/11
The virus has only been carried outside the hotspots by three passengers.
In Nigeria it subsequently spread to 19 other people, but there have been no new cases for nearly 40 days - well beyond the three-week incubation period of the virus.
In Senegal, It doesn't look like the patient who carried the virus over the border infected anybody else.
And in the US, doctors are keeping a close eye on the contacts of an infected traveller from Liberia.
So all that tells me two things.
First the virus can be carried by air passengers, but rarely.
Video: What are we sending to stop Ebola?
And second, in countries with effective health systems that can rapidly quarantine patients and trace their contacts, the virus just doesn't get going.
So spare a thought, better still some cash, for those in three of the poorest countries in West Africa.
But keep calm and carry on.
Typical "It wont happen to us" attitude - personally I have everything in place - just in case 'they' are wrong. Hubby thinks I have lost the plot when the Tyvek suits and respirators arrived - with 200 gloves, bed incontinence sheets .................. wait until all the herbal stuff arrives as well - he will probably send for the 'men in white coats' for me. However I would rater spend a couple of hundred pounds now than not be able to get the stuff later on. IF 'they' are right then he can use the suits to redecorate the house in a couple of years time ...... and at our age we might need the incontinence bed sheets within a year or two anyway
