TRANS Nickel shortage spells trouble for EVs — report

Zagdid

Veteran Member

Nickel shortage spells trouble for EVs — report
By David Iaconangelo | 10/13/2021 06:14 AM EST

The auto industry’s move to electric cars could encounter hiccups caused by a shortage of nickel — one of the most widely used minerals for EV batteries — as soon as 2026, according to research from consultancy Rystad Energy.

Discussions about electric vehicles’ appetite for raw materials have tended to overlook nickel, focusing more on the supply challenges and societal impacts of cobalt and lithium.

Yet according to Rystad’s timelines, nickel could be one of the first battery minerals to experience shortages. By 2024, global demand for nickel will have risen from 2.5 million tons to 3.4 million tons, surpassing supplies, the group said.

For battery makers and car manufacturers, the crunch will be felt within the following two years, with "no obvious solution in sight,” wrote analysts at the Norway-based consultancy.

That would add another layer of complexity to the balancing act facing electric vehicles, at a time when auto manufacturers are under pressure from policymakers in the United States to electrify their fleets. The Biden administration has a goal of converting 50 percent of all new car sales to electric models by 2030, and states like California and New York are also preparing regulations that will phase out gas-car sales by 2035.

Nickel chemistries tend to allow for better range, noted James Ley, a senior vice president at Rystad, in an email to E&E News. Many prospective EV buyers cite a vehicle’s range — or the mileage granted by a single battery charge — as a key consideration.

If shortages were to drive the price of nickel to "historic highs,” while simultaneously doing the same for the cost of other raw materials like lithium, Ley added, the sticker price of a new electric car could conceivably rise by a few thousand dollars, making them harder to sell.

Still, looming nickel shortages don’t make for an insurmountable obstacle, when considering President Biden’s goals, Ley said.

Automakers "can mitigate tightness in nickel," he wrote, including by switching to new battery chemistries that don’t contain nickel, as Tesla and Volkswagen have already pledged to do.

Rystad’s note yesterday coincided with two new market surveys showing that EVs’ share of car sales is ticking upward, although a boom hasn’t quite materialized.

In its first-ever quarterly report on electric vehicle sales, the auto industry’s main trade group found that between April and June, EVs made up 3.8 percent of the total market in the United States.

That was the highest quarterly percentage ever, up from 2.2 percent during the same quarter last year, according to the group, known as the Alliance for Automotive Innovation.

The alliance’s president, John Bozzella, said the report "showcases the momentum we are seeing in consumer acceptance of zero emission vehicles across the country." Yet the group also called on policymakers to commit new funds for EV chargers and incentives for EV buyers, while helping to grow domestic supplies of key materials.

A second report, produced by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), found that in 2020, EVs constituted 4.6 percent of all new cars sold globally — also a record percentage.

The number of public EV chargers grew by nearly 50 percent, the group said. And the average cost of battery packs fell 12 percent, a favorable sign for the price of new EVs. ICCT also took stock of how policymakers in some parts of the world have embraced EVs as a solution for addressing climate. By the end of 2020, over 20 countries, provinces and states across Europe and North America had pledged to end gas car sales, the group wrote.

But analysts at Rystad think nickel’s scarcity might compromise EVs’ public image. As miners seek out new sources of nickel, they wrote, controversies over the social and environmental impacts of nickel production could mushroom, and potentially "tarnish" manufacturers of electric cars, wrote analysts at the Norway-based consultancy.

Carmakers might increasingly look to "previously unattractive sources,” including deposits located in Indonesia — the world’s biggest producer of nickel, but a place with a shaky record of protecting local ecosystems from nickel’s waste streams, said Ley.

The global standard-bearer for electric cars, Tesla Inc., has already made early overtures to Indonesian officials about acquiring supplies there. The company’s chief executive, Elon Musk, said earlier this year that nickel was his "biggest concern" in scaling up production of lithium-ion batteries, spurring Tesla to partner with major mining company BHP to lock up supplies.

Some carmakers "might be reluctant to get tied up with Indonesia when looking at new supplies,” wrote Ley in an email to E&E News, but they’ll face competition for supplies from the stainless steel industry, which remains the biggest source of demand for nickel.

"So this is definitely a problem," he wrote.
 

BadMedicine

Would *I* Lie???
on that note, anyone here collecting old pennies for their copper content?

Nickels are made from muckle-cupra...75% nickel, 25% copper.. A box at face value will cost you $100.

A box of nickel weighs 22.05#. Times that by .75 to find the Nickel weight- 16.53# of nickel time $8.6 per pound, and a box of nickels contains $142.22 worth of nickel.

Copper is worth $4.50 a lb. take the 25% of the copper in the 22.05# nickel box, and it weighs 5.51#s. times that by $4.5 coper price per pound and you get $24.8 in copper per box.

So a box of nickels costs $100, has a melt value of $167.... no sorting needed. Anybody still sorting pennies for the 3X upside is wasting a LOT of time...
 

Donghe Surfer

Veteran Member

Nickel -- used in kitchen wares, smartphones, medical equipment, transport, buildings, batteries, and jewelry -- has doubled in price this year.
"At this juncture, watch the critical cash-three month gap, which is already backwardation and has the scope to widen further. It was last at $83/ton, the biggest in two years. Spiking spreads have been an important feature for record-setting tin, which has rallied almost 90% this year, and similarly in the copper market," Bloomberg said.
Tightening supply is primarily due to Vale SA, one of the world's top nickel producers, slashing its production outlook for the year due to a strike at its Canadian mine. MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, the world's largest refined nickel producer, reported declining output in the third quarter. The second-largest metal producer, the Philippines, said output this year would be 10% less than the annual average due to torrential rains and declining vessels for transport.


Nickels from 2014 and earlier are worth 6.3 cents.
 

energy_wave

Has No Life - Lives on TB
With an oil economy, there's always another place to find oil and refine the product, so shortages are not much of a problem. With this BS EV economy the far left wants, China will be the only country cooking the batteries. WTF happens when they have supply issues? With the price of oil going up, the blow back in the petrochemical industries will be huge. I hope I can buy my roofing materials before the price hike.
 

Milk-maid

Girls with Guns Member
My neighbor across the street has an electric vehicle.

He drives to work in another town 40 minutes down the interstate and then back home.
He has to recharge each night.
Can't make any stops to someplace else, lest he run out of battery.
These EVs are the worst thing ever.
 

Chance

Veteran Member
THEY know this EV plan won't work...with the number of people we have now.

Drop the population by a couple hundred thousand....
 

Milk-maid

Girls with Guns Member
My mechanic says car batteries only last about 4 years now the way they are made.

Good business model, right?
 

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I didn't think nickel was a rare mineral.

Technically nickel is an element (not a mineral). And it's pretty much irrelevant how much the melt value of a copper penny or a nickel is because you can't legally melt them down (or even export them for that purpose).
 

BadMedicine

Would *I* Lie???
Technically nickel is an element (not a mineral). And it's pretty much irrelevant how much the melt value of a copper penny or a nickel is because you can't legally melt them down (or even export them for that purpose).
The USD, the US and all derivatives have a shelf life of lesss than 20 years, at this point.

Should the USD and the US continue to go on past that point, the dollar will have inflated to such a number that the "dollar" is the lowest denomination. Change will long ago have faded away to "too heavy and useless to carry." Anything that ends on an odd number will get rounded to the dollar and nobody will care or feel 'had.'

Should the US and USD NOT hyperinflate, and just continue at it's present rate (...exponentially nearing on hyperinflation.." Then the US will STILL obsolete tyhe penny and nickel in the next 10-15 years, if fo no other reason than the war effort/ economy, because nickels will soon be "fifty cent pieces" in value and will be needed for things more valuabl than 1/20th dollar place markers.,..

Keep all your nickels. It's like MAKING 100% RETURN ON YOUR INVESTMENT, everytime you pocket one. Hard to get that in ANY MARKET.
 

Great Northwet

Veteran Member
Didn't some Saudi King say, "My father rode a camel, I ride in a car, my son fly's jets, his son will ride a camel". Isn't that where we are getting to now? The planet is awash in oil and that was fine when there were 3.5 billion of us when I was growing up. But now there are 7.5 billion of us so it's going to be used much more quickly now.

They keep promising new discoveries of oil-so why does the price keep going up? Oh wait; maybe they are lying.

.gov is pushing EV cars, but they require minerals and metals for the batteries. Guess where they are located-Ukraine, Russia, China. Hmm, I'm starting to see a pattern here.
 

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
... the US will STILL obsolete tyhe penny and nickel in the next 10-15 years ...

For those that don't pay attention to anything but their own bellybuttons, quite a few countries around the world have done exactly this. They aren't all Third World countries, either. I imagine that even if the US did quit minting pennies and nickels (I've been expecting the penny to go any year now) it would still be illegal to melt them down.
 

Ku Commando

Inactive
Nickels are made from muckle-cupra...75% nickel, 25% copper


You've got your ratios crossed

75% copper / 25% nickel

Still, nickels are 'free money' & cash drawers are usually stuffed w/ them. I make it a habit of asking for them !


Here's this morning's nickel quote from coinflation

Don't be fooled by the 1946-2014 dates......ALL nickels from 1866 to present are 75/25 cupro-nickel

Values Used:
Total Face Value:$.05
Coin Type:1946-2014 Jefferson Nickel
Copper Price: $4.7289 / pound
Nickel Price: $17.7113 / pound
Answer:


Total melt value is $0.09.

(Exact value is $0.08790381541595. $0.048808415762007 worth of nickel, $0.039095399653943 of copper.)


Statistics:

» There are 0.0083 pounds of copper and 0.0028 pounds of nickel in $.05 face value of nickel(s).

» A roll of nickel(s) has 40 coins and is valued at $3.52 when copper is at $4.7289 / lb and nickel at $17.7113 / lb (exact value is $3.51615).
 

NoDandy

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Let me guess.

Poopy pants & Hunter have a big stock position in nickel stock piles.
 

Donghe Surfer

Veteran Member
For those that don't pay attention to anything but their own bellybuttons, quite a few countries around the world have done exactly this. They aren't all Third World countries, either. I imagine that even if the US did quit minting pennies and nickels (I've been expecting the penny to go any year now) it would still be illegal to melt them down.
If copper and nickel really take off, then those coins (see coinflation dot com) will likely be "taken out of circulation" by the smart people, just like the silver dimes, half dollars, etc. in late 60s and early 70s, which now make up "silver coin bags" at coin shops.
 

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
on that note, anyone here collecting old pennies for their copper content?

Nickels are made from muckle-cupra...75% nickel, 25% copper.. A box at face value will cost you $100.

A box of nickel weighs 22.05#. Times that by .75 to find the Nickel weight- 16.53# of nickel time $8.6 per pound, and a box of nickels contains $142.22 worth of nickel.

Copper is worth $4.50 a lb. take the 25% of the copper in the 22.05# nickel box, and it weighs 5.51#s. times that by $4.5 coper price per pound and you get $24.8 in copper per box.

So a box of nickels costs $100, has a melt value of $167.... no sorting needed. Anybody still sorting pennies for the 3X upside is wasting a LOT of time...

I have 500 lbs. I bought a couple decades ago. Still in the same unopened boxes they arrived in. Maybe someday...
 

West

Senior
If this current war increases and more stuff gets blown up, it's another fire under nickel. Nickel is the war metal first, then for nickels and then batteries.

Buying nickel miners is a good idea, IMO.
 

BadMedicine

Would *I* Lie???
I have 500 lbs. I bought a couple decades ago. Still in the same unopened boxes they arrived in. Maybe someday...
It was a good idea to buy them then. Cost you about $2200 bucks and is now worth $3700, so a profit of $1500.. not bad.

HOWEVER. the 5cents you stored decades ago was worth FAR MORE than the 5cents now, AND nickel has only recently reached this high high point.... Not to bash you, only to illustratye a point...

You did good, and are a smart investor, BUT ITS AN EVEN BETTER DEAL NOW. The ship has not sailed. The horse is still in the stable. Foresight, on this point, is 20/20... The PRICE OF COIN NICKELS HAS NOT GONE UP ANY IN THAT TIME.... Just the 'nickel element' which can STILL BE BOUGHT AT PRE-INFLATION PRICES.

The best time to start saving gold was 25 years ago. The best time to stack NICKELS IS NOW.
 

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
It was a good idea to buy them then. Cost you about $2200 bucks and is now worth $3700, so a profit of $1500.. not bad.

HOWEVER. the 5cents you stored decades ago was worth FAR MORE than the 5cents now, AND nickel has only recently reached this high high point.... Not to bash you, only to illustratye a point...

You did good, and are a smart investor, BUT ITS AN EVEN BETTER DEAL NOW. The ship has not sailed. The horse is still in the stable. Foresight, on this point, is 20/20... The PRICE OF COIN NICKELS HAS NOT GONE UP ANY IN THAT TIME.... Just the 'nickel element' which can STILL BE BOUGHT AT PRE-INFLATION PRICES.

The best time to start saving gold was 25 years ago. The best time to stack NICKELS IS NOW.

I do not worry about things like that. I put 300000.00 into a place that runs off solar. Heat and everything. Try that at 5400 ft. 25 years ago was the time to stop buying. The first time I bought palladium it was 40.00.
 
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Teeja

On the Beach
Gold is pushing $2000 and silver $26 also. Are we getting rich?

The value of gold & silver hasn't changed at all. The value of the dollar is what changed.... towards the negative.

1 ounce of gold will pretty much buy the same amount of goods it always did. Stable Money, as opposed to fiat dollars.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
I have a bag of change, nickel, pennies, dimes I usually take to Safeway's coin counting machine. I will stop doing that I think.
 

Milk-maid

Girls with Guns Member
Richard Russell economist (now deceased) once said, 'Someday, gold will skyrocket, but you won't like the world we're living in by that point.'

I think we've gotten there.
 

Milk-maid

Girls with Guns Member
Hubby and I have been squirrelling away nickels for a long time. When we get enough to put them in a roll, we do. Then we forget about it. Have been doing this for years.
 

Milk-maid

Girls with Guns Member
If everything in banking fails, you might be able to still buy food in a vending machine with that change. There's got to be an upside to all this.
 
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