MNKYPOX Monkeypox - Consolidated Thread.

Meemur

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
bw said:
Yeah, the numbers are sloppy. 60k in six weeks is not impossible. My prediction has nothing to do with actual numbers. Medicine is politics now.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, you're probably correct. Next week starts "move in" for the students in many Iowa colleges, and I expect the spread to significantly increase.
 
BenIan

BenIan

Veteran Member
I went to college in the mid-90s and there was a lot of shall we say, physical contact. Every Wednesday night for years we would go the same bar. Probably 1000 people crammed into a space about the size of half a basketball court. Slamming into each other, dancing, sweating, fighting (sometimes). Every Saturday in the fall, we would cram into the student section of the football stadium. Shoulder to shoulder, sweating in the late summer heat....You see where I'm going.
 
phloydius

phloydius

Veteran Member
psychgirl said:
It’ll climb a lot higher today, I think, since California is only reporting cases on TuesdayThursdays?
Click to expand...

Texas also only reports on Tuesday & Friday.
Many of the cities only report once a week as well, as far as I can tell. Austin (or more specifically Travis County) reports on Thursday.
 
phloydius

phloydius

Veteran Member
psychgirl said:
I’ve lost track lol
Thank you!
Click to expand...

I was sitting here thinking about the time delay in cases a few times over the past few weeks. Here are the results of my wargame of someone who is QUICKLY diagnosed with Monkeypox.

In a war game of averages with average people --

If your friend at church is exposed to Monkeypox at work today (8/16) they would starts to show symptoms on 8/25 but assumes that it might be Covid-19, but tested at home and was negative so they went to church on 8/28 infectious and spread the Monkeypox virus at church. Four days after the first symptoms (on 8/29) they start to show a rash and assume that it is a pimple, poison ivy, or a bug bite. On 8/31 the rash starts to spread and the pain starts, at which point they go see thier GP.

They have heard of Monkeypox, but were not too worried about it because they were told it was a homosexual STD, but they bring it up to the doctor anyways. Thier GP doctor tells them not to worry, because it is clearly not Monkeypox and they are not in the high risk group. The GP doctor diagnoses them with Shingles. The doctor and other patience are now exposed to Monkeypox. They go to the pharmacy, spreading the disease. And also a restaurant. And also the grocery store.

The pain is not bad enough to keep them home, so they spend all week at work just like normal -- spreading the disease.

A few days later on 9/4 they go to church again and ask for prayers because of the shingles (but is mostly covered by clothing) which is more painful than they expected. The church prays for them, and some even lay hands on them for healing. It is the first Sunday of the week, so that church does a pot luck after service, and the hugs and fellowship spreads more of the disease.

They go back to work on 9/5, but the pain is become unbearable so they go home early. They call in sick on 9/6 from the pain, and they rash is getting worse and starting to change where the shingle rash starts to blister. They call to make another appointment with the GP, but the earliest they can get in would be 9/9, so they go to Urgent Care instead. That doctor says it is likely MRSA, not Shingles, and prescribes an antibiotic & pain killers and sends a test for MRSA to the lab, and they will know in about 48 hours.

On 9/11 they results of the MRSA test come back negative, and the antibiotics and pain killers are not helping. It is so painful now, that they go to the ER. They wait at the ER is so bad, that they end up going home after a several hour wait. The next day on 9/12 they go to a different ER and after about an hour wait, they get in. The doctor tells them that it might be Monkeypox but probably is not, and preforms a test. They also test for a few other diseases, but tells them that is most likely is a really bad case of Shingles. The ER doctor sends them home with better pain killers, a different shingles medication, and tells them to rest.

Four days later (on 9/16) the results of the test come back Positive, via a phone call. The healthcare worker on the phone tells them that Monkeypox does not spread easily, so they should avoid prolonged close contact with others and try to stay home as much as possible, but it is okay for them to make short trips to the places like the grocery store & see family and friends. But hey should also abstain from sexual contact, and other activities where there is a lot of intimate touching. They are mortified when the healthcare worker asks them if they have had any sexual contact with homosexual men in the last month -- and answer "absolutely not". They are in a monogamous heterosexual relationship with thier spouse. The healthcare worker recommends that the spouse gets tested, and gathers contact information for the contact tracer.

They are told the contact tracer should contact them with 2 business days. They start reading more online about Monkeypox and how it primarily infects men having sex with men, and decide they are going to keep telling friends, family, and thier church that they still have shingles out of fear that they will think they are a homosexual.

They dodge the first calls from the contact tracer on 9/20, and again on 9/22, out of fear. Finally the contact tracer reaches them on 9/23. They decide to leave out a lot of information about who they have had contact with, but fortunately the contact tracer does not ask about most of the more casual contacts such as church, grocery store, etc. They tell the contact tracer that they did not feel well, so they really did not go anywhere other than work. Over the next week (9/26-9/30), the contact tracer starts contacting people at their work.

The city they are in reports Monkeypox cases once a week, on Friday, and the state reports the number on Monday and Thursdays. The ER reports the case within 24 hours, as required on Saturday 9/17 to the city. The city reports the case to the state on Friday 9/23. The state reports the case to the CDC on Monday 9/26. The CDC adds it to the official numbers the following day on 9/27.

Assumptions: Incubation period is 5-21 days, but average seems to be about 9 days. Reports on social media say that contact tracers seem to contact people about 7-10 days after they received the official diagnosis. Based on reports from individuals & official documents, Monkeypox test results can take as little as 2 days with some labs, but often take up to 7-10 days.

TLDR; Exposed to Monkeypox on today (8/16) & diagnosed QUICKLY, it will show up in CDC's numbers over a month later, around 9/27.
 
abby normal

abby normal

insert appropriate adjective here
psychgirl said:
USA cases are far exceeding the he rest of the world, now. :(
Click to expand...
This is going to be the next pandemic- covid wasn't scary enough. We now have animal vectors. Its no longer just an STD for gays. Weather it evolves naturally or is helped along, this is the ticket for coming lock downs and new vaccination push.

Once it's in the school system, game over. Nobody is going to want to see sick children... and not just "flu" sick but kids with oozing painful sores, crying in excruciating pain. It will be all over the news.

It will serve "their" purpose perfectly: fully destroy the economy via more lock downs, eliminate cash transactions (infected money) ...banking, distribution/shipping centers will have to shut down so they can be decontaminated, not even online purchases for a time... everything will stop, ideal opportunity to switch over the currency.

It's building to this. The writing is on the wall.

Call me alarmist if you want. I will GLADLY eat crow if this doesn't come to pass. I truly hope I'm wrong.
 
psychgirl

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
abby normal said:
This is going to be the next pandemic- covid wasn't scary enough. We now have animal vectors. Its no longer just an STD for gays. Weather it evolves naturally or is helped along, this is the ticket for coming lock downs and new vaccination push.

Once it's in the school system, game over. Nobody is going to want to see sick children... and not just "flu" sick but kids with oozing painful sores, crying in excruciating pain. It will be all over the news.

It will serve "their" purpose perfectly: fully destroy the economy via more lock downs, eliminate cash transactions (infected money) ...banking, distribution/shipping centers will have to shut down so they can be decontaminated, not even online purchases for a time... everything will stop, ideal opportunity to switch over the currency.

It's building to this. The writing is on the wall.

Call me alarmist if you want. I will GLADLY eat crow if this doesn't come to pass. I truly hope I'm wrong.
Click to expand...
Bingo!!!!
 
psychgirl

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
phloydius said:
I was sitting here thinking about the time delay in cases a few times over the past few weeks. Here are the results of my wargame of someone who is QUICKLY diagnosed with Monkeypox.

In a war game of averages with average people --

If your friend at church is exposed to Monkeypox at work today (8/16) they would starts to show symptoms on 8/25 but assumes that it might be Covid-19, but tested at home and was negative so they went to church on 8/28 infectious and spread the Monkeypox virus at church. Four days after the first symptoms (on 8/29) they start to show a rash and assume that it is a pimple, poison ivy, or a bug bite. On 8/31 the rash starts to spread and the pain starts, at which point they go see thier GP.

They have heard of Monkeypox, but were not too worried about it because they were told it was a homosexual STD, but they bring it up to the doctor anyways. Thier GP doctor tells them not to worry, because it is clearly not Monkeypox and they are not in the high risk group. The GP doctor diagnoses them with Shingles. The doctor and other patience are now exposed to Monkeypox. They go to the pharmacy, spreading the disease. And also a restaurant. And also the grocery store.

The pain is not bad enough to keep them home, so they spend all week at work just like normal -- spreading the disease.

A few days later on 9/4 they go to church again and ask for prayers because of the shingles (but is mostly covered by clothing) which is more painful than they expected. The church prays for them, and some even lay hands on them for healing. It is the first Sunday of the week, so that church does a pot luck after service, and the hugs and fellowship spreads more of the disease.

They go back to work on 9/5, but the pain is become unbearable so they go home early. They call in sick on 9/6 from the pain, and they rash is getting worse and starting to change where the shingle rash starts to blister. They call to make another appointment with the GP, but the earliest they can get in would be 9/9, so they go to Urgent Care instead. That doctor says it is likely MRSA, not Shingles, and prescribes an antibiotic & pain killers and sends a test for MRSA to the lab, and they will know in about 48 hours.

On 9/11 they results of the MRSA test come back negative, and the antibiotics and pain killers are not helping. It is so painful now, that they go to the ER. They wait at the ER is so bad, that they end up going home after a several hour wait. The next day on 9/12 they go to a different ER and after about an hour wait, they get in. The doctor tells them that it might be Monkeypox but probably is not, and preforms a test. They also test for a few other diseases, but tells them that is most likely is a really bad case of Shingles. The ER doctor sends them home with better pain killers, a different shingles medication, and tells them to rest.

Four days later (on 9/16) the results of the test come back Positive, via a phone call. The healthcare worker on the phone tells them that Monkeypox does not spread easily, so they should avoid prolonged close contact with others and try to stay home as much as possible, but it is okay for them to make short trips to the places like the grocery store & see family and friends. But hey should also abstain from sexual contact, and other activities where there is a lot of intimate touching. They are mortified when the healthcare worker asks them if they have had any sexual contact with homosexual men in the last month -- and answer "absolutely not". They are in a monogamous heterosexual relationship with thier spouse. The healthcare worker recommends that the spouse gets tested, and gathers contact information for the contact tracer.

They are told the contact tracer should contact them with 2 business days. They start reading more online about Monkeypox and how it primarily infects men having sex with men, and decide they are going to keep telling friends, family, and thier church that they still have shingles out of fear that they will think they are a homosexual.

They dodge the first calls from the contact tracer on 9/20, and again on 9/22, out of fear. Finally the contact tracer reaches them on 9/23. They decide to leave out a lot of information about who they have had contact with, but fortunately the contact tracer does not ask about most of the more casual contacts such as church, grocery store, etc. They tell the contact tracer that they did not feel well, so they really did not go anywhere other than work. Over the next week (9/26-9/30), the contact tracer starts contacting people at their work.

The city they are in reports Monkeypox cases once a week, on Friday, and the state reports the number on Monday and Thursdays. The ER reports the case within 24 hours, as required on Saturday 9/17 to the city. The city reports the case to the state on Friday 9/23. The state reports the case to the CDC on Monday 9/26. The CDC adds it to the official numbers the following day on 9/27.

Assumptions: Incubation period is 5-21 days, but average seems to be about 9 days. Reports on social media say that contact tracers seem to contact people about 7-10 days after they received the official diagnosis. Based on reports from individuals & official documents, Monkeypox test results can take as little as 2 days with some labs, but often take up to 7-10 days.

TLDR; Exposed to Monkeypox on today (8/16) & diagnosed QUICKLY, it will show up in CDC's numbers over a month later, around 9/27.
Click to expand...
Excellent summary
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
abby normal said:
This is going to be the next pandemic- covid wasn't scary enough. We now have animal vectors. Its no longer just an STD for gays. Weather it evolves naturally or is helped along, this is the ticket for coming lock downs and new vaccination push.

Once it's in the school system, game over. Nobody is going to want to see sick children... and not just "flu" sick but kids with oozing painful sores, crying in excruciating pain. It will be all over the news.
Click to expand...
Tick tick tick
 
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