WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

jward

passin' thru
Is the CIA Determined to Look Away from Iran?


By Elliott Abrams October 12, 2021 6:30 AM






iran-nuclear.jpg
Then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (second from left) reviews a display during Iran’s National Nuclear Energy Day in Tehran, Iran, April 10, 2021. (Iranian Presidency Office/West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters)
It’s dangerously unwise of the Biden administration to make bureaucratic moves that signal a softer line on the Iranian threat.

According to the New York Times, the CIA is about to reorganize itself to deal with the threat of China — by creating a China Mission Center. That’s a smart move, likely to bring more manpower, intellect, top-level attention, and resources to the great geopolitical challenge the United States faces in the 21st century.

Similar moves at the State Department, beefing up substantially the old “China desk,” are equally sensible and for the same reasons. Such bureaucratic moves can make a significant difference both as a reflection of what the people at the top of the government care about most and as a means of giving them — and other governments — better information and better options.
When I served in the Trump administration State Department as special representative for Venezuela, from 2019 to 2021, the Department’s organization showed the importance accorded to issues pertaining to that country. I was part of Secretary Pompeo’s senior staff, with ready and frequent access to him; I had my own small staff; in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs there was a Venezuela desk of about a dozen people, reporting to the deputy assistant secretary of state for Venezuela and Cuba; and there were additional resources in the Andean Affairs desk in the bureau and other offices there.

But switches can be flipped from on to off. The Biden administration has eliminated the office of special representative for Venezuela and its staff, as well as the large Venezuela staff in the Western Hemisphere Affairs Bureau and the position of deputy assistant secretary for Venezuela and Cuba. Venezuela is handled at the Andean Affairs desk, along with Colombia, Peru, and other countries. To officials in the U.S. government and other governments, and to Venezuelans, the message is clear: This issue is going to get a lot less attention at the top.
In another worrisome change, it seems that the CIA, while building up its resources for China, is taking apart those for Iran. The Iran Mission Center is to be dissolved, and its near-legendary leader, Mike D’Andrea, is retiring. The Times reported this: “The appointment in 2017 of Mr. D’Andrea, who had a long career leading operations against Al Qaeda and other terrorist targets, was a sign of the Trump administration’s hard line on Iran. And inside the C.I.A., Mr. D’Andrea helped craft a more muscular approach against Tehran.”

More in Iran
Yes, indeed — so what is the message being sent now? Clearly, that less attention will be given to Iran and that a softer approach is desired.
This is exactly the wrong moment to send such a message. Iran is violating not only the Obama Iran deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), every day, but also the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and continues to refuse the International Atomic Energy Agency access that is required of every NPT signatory. As is becoming clearer by the day, Iran is not intending to return to the JCPOA, and the new government of President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani is taking a far harder line.
At this exact moment, it seems dangerously unwise to make bureaucratic moves that signal a softer line on the Iranian threat and less attention to it at the top. Other governments, including that in Tehran, and officials in our own government will see the departure of D’Andrea and the closing of the Iran Mission Center as a message — and it is precisely the wrong message to send right now.

The deeper problem, of course, is that this message may give an accurate sense of Biden administration policy. Iran’s conduct is worse and worse, but there is no sign that the Biden administration is yet contemplating the tougher steps it must take as Iran proceeds apace toward possessing a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it. Dreams of a return to the JCPOA seem to die hard. And the great danger the administration seems most acutely determined to avoid is any move that might invite comparison to its predecessor and the “maximum pressure” campaign of 2019–21.
 

jward

passin' thru
Mike Pompeo: Israel might need to attack Iran due to US 'appeasement'
The former US secretary of state also spoke on a Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem, a Saudi addition to the Abraham Accords and the "lie of occupation."
By
TAL SPUNGIN
OCTOBER 12, 2021 20:47

Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

 Former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo speaking at the Jerusalem Post Annual Conference, October 12, 2021. (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)


Former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo speaking at the Jerusalem Post Annual Conference, October 12, 2021.

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

An Israeli last-resort military action against Iran is a risk of American appeasement and emboldens the Islamic Republic, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo said Tuesday at the Jerusalem Post Conference.

Military action is “not in the best interests of anyone,” he told Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief Yaakov Katz.
Pompeo defended the Trump administration’s decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iranian nuclear deal, in 2018, saying the policies it adopted had made the world safer from the Iranian regime.

“We denied them resources, and we denied them the ability to build out a Gulf-threatening culpability,” he said. “The strike on [former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander] Qasem Soleimani demonstrated our willingness to defend American interests around the world. The work we were engaged in would have prevented Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.”

In a speech to the UN General Assembly in September, US President Joe Biden said the US was seeking a return to the JCPOA.
“The current administration wants to re-enter the deal, longer, better, stronger? Well, I want it longer, I want it better, and I want it much, much stronger,” Pompeo said.

Had the Trump administration stayed in office for another year or two, the cooperation between it and Israel would have been able to prevent Iranian nuclear advancements, he said.
“We were never going to let Iran get a nuclear weapon on our watch,” he added.
 US President Joe Biden addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York City (credit: REUTERS/EDUARDO MUNOZ/POOL)
US President Joe Biden addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York City (credit: REUTERS/EDUARDO MUNOZ/POOL)


Pompeo criticized the Biden administration for complying and returning to a “false principle that Israel is an illegal occupier” and called on Israel to confront that narrative, which he said is the beating heart of modern antisemitism and dubbed the “lie of occupation.”
“Occupation is a legal term whose definition does not apply to the State of Israel under the law,” Pompeo said, adding that US support of Israel is an expression of American patriotism.

“We want a legitimate discourse on policy, not a bunch of name-calling rhetoric that antisemitic squads like to throw around,” he said, referring to progressive Democrats who led efforts to defund the Iron Dome missile-defense system.

Pompeo said opening a US consulate for Palestinians in Jerusalem is “a terrible idea for the United States, Israel and the Palestinian people.”
A Jerusalem consulate would be illegal under US law, he said, adding that a US-recognized nation such as Israel should not host a consulate in the same city where a US Embassy is located.
 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas adjusts his glasses as he listens during a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (not pictured), in the West Bank city of Ramallah, May 25, 2021.  (credit: ALEX BRANDON/POOL VIA REUTERS)
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas adjusts his glasses as he listens during a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (not pictured), in the West Bank city of Ramallah, May 25, 2021. (credit: ALEX BRANDON/POOL VIA REUTERS)

It is in the best interest of the Palestinians to engage in conversation with Israel, Pompeo said, but Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is not a partner for peace.
“The only way you get to a resolution in this conflict is through dialogue,” he said. “There are complex issues, but you cannot resolve them by urging your people to threaten intifada when things do not go your way.”

Asked how close Israel was to achieving normalization with Saudi Arabia, Pompeo said he is convinced there are multiple nations that will come to recognize Israel as a “partner in peace and prosperity.”
“The Abraham Accords are a demonstrable path forward that every people in this region can choose,” he said. “Israel is a nation of peace, and Palestinians can have better lives.”

 

jward

passin' thru
Walid Phares
@WalidPhares


#Hezbillah threaten the Justice Palace in #Beirut, fire machine guns & rockets on Christian neighborhoods, and clash with the Lebanese Army. Civilians respond from their balconies.
View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448620431150305284?s=20

View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448672978661675015?s=20


War Noir
@war_noir

21m

#Lebanon : Several more interesting photos of #Hezbollah/#Amal gunmen in #Beirut. A 5.56x45mm Compact rifle (seems to be an HK53 variant with slim handguards, perhaps produced by Iranian DIO) and an AK-74M rifle with GP-25 pattern UBGL can be seen along with lots of AKs.
View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448704170379419654?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Walid Phares
@WalidPhares


#Hezbillah threaten the Justice Palace in #Beirut, fire machine guns & rockets on Christian neighborhoods, and clash with the Lebanese Army. Civilians respond from their balconies.
View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448620431150305284?s=20

View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448672978661675015?s=20


War Noir
@war_noir

21m

#Lebanon : Several more interesting photos of #Hezbollah/#Amal gunmen in #Beirut. A 5.56x45mm Compact rifle (seems to be an HK53 variant with slim handguards, perhaps produced by Iranian DIO) and an AK-74M rifle with GP-25 pattern UBGL can be seen along with lots of AKs.
View: https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1448704170379419654?s=20

Talk about a flashback to the 1970s....
 

jward

passin' thru
The IDF set up a top secret intelligence base to monitor Iranian activities, with a focus on Tehran’s nuclear program. The unique site brings together officers from the army’s intelligence branch and elite 8200 intel collection unit, Walla News reports.
Research teams of analysts, linguists and other experts work in fortified underground facilities and specialize in all aspects of the Iranian threat, the report says. A key mission at the base is to expose Iran’s nuclear deception and coverup methods.
Specialists also utilize artificial intelligence to bolster and improve intelligence gathering via sophisticated algorithms, Walla reported. A senior officer told the website that Israel possesses deep knowledge of the Iranian nuclear project.
The secret base also play a key role in identifying and neutralizing Iranian threats in Syria. The army was able to develop effective methods to detect and bomb Iran’s military assets in Syrian territory, the IDF intelligence chief said recently.
Notably, an Air Force officer is stationed at the base to review intelligence and expedite strike operations.
Meanwhile, Iran reduced the number of militiamen deployed in Syria by 50% to 10,000, according to Western intelligence estimates. Tehran also minimized its military presence at the Damascus airport following repeated attacks, Haaretz daily reported.
Tehran is having trouble financing its Syria project while contending with Israeli strikes as well as Russian and Syrian pressure, the report said.
Share this post
View: https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1449336361417334784?s=20
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member


Iranian Navy Fends Off Pirate Attack On Oil Tanker
Bloomberg October 16, 2021

Sahand-Destroyer.jpg


By Arsalan Shahla (Bloomberg) –An Iranian warship foiled a pirate attack against one of the country’s oil vessels in the Gulf of Aden following a “heavy exchange of fire” early Saturday, state TV reported.

Iranian navy destroyer Alborz warded off “scores of pirates equipped with five speedboats and advanced equipment” that aimed to attack an unidentified Iranian oil vessel. There were no details of possible damage or casualties.

The Alborz was deployed to international waters in August to maintain security for the country’s vessels, the report said.

© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.
 

jward

passin' thru
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky


Noteworthy: chief of staff of #Iran's Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri while visiting #Russia claimed that contracts for the purchase of fighter jets, training jets, and combat helicopters have been concluded after expiration of UN arms embargo. 1/2
This is consistent with DIA estimates, that #Iran would seek to purchase Russian Su-30 fighters and Yak-130 trainers. 2/2
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1450202913398272009?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm..........

Posted for fair use.....

Iran Won’t Stop Until It Has a Nuclear Weapon
Khamenei and his regime haven’t gone to all this trouble merely to become a ‘threshold state.’

By Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
Oct. 19, 2021 6:26 pm ET

It is a common hope within Washington’s foreign-policy establishment that no matter how close Iran gets to the atomic threshold, it won’t detonate a bomb. The intelligence community claims Tehran isn’t currently taking steps to build a nuclear weapon. Many want to believe that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s fatwa against the production and use of nuclear weapons will keep Iran a threshold state. These hopes are delusional.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is led by an ardent ideological regime that frequently relies on conspiracies to explain its predicament. Leaders of the regime speak incessantly about the cabal of Zionists and Jews who control America and plot against the Islamic revolution. Mr. Khamenei and his henchmen haven’t spent billions and endured a tidal wave of sanctions and social unrest only to get close to a nuclear weapon. They will build the bomb as soon as they can and justify it afterward.

The Iranian theocracy has gradually transformed itself. Mr. Khamenei has purged the pragmatists from Iranian leadership. The reformers who rallied around Mohammad Khatami (president from 1997 through 2005) and believed the theocracy could be softened, even superannuated, through the ballot box have been banned from the corridors of power. Even conservatives who contemplated diplomatic engagement with the West to enhance the regime’s status and economic power, like former President Hassan Rouhani (2013-21) and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani (2008-20), are denied a seat at the table. Iran is becoming less subtle. The new president, Ebrahim Raisi, is the personification of the new elite—cruel, dogmatic and indifferent to Western sensibilities.

As the guardians of the theocracy see it, the U.S. uses institutions like the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency to pressure regimes into submission. Nonproliferation norms and international conventions are meaningless to Tehran. As Mr. Khamenei recently said, “Whenever you made your affairs contingent on Westerners’ cooperation, you failed, and whenever you moved forward and showed initiative without trusting Westerners, you succeeded.” Iran won’t try to join a global community that is designed and run by its enemies.

Iran has other compelling reasons for developing atomic weapons. So far, the theocracy has relied on Shiite proxies and militias to project its power and influence across the Middle East in a relatively low-cost and effective way. To ensure that Iran can counter the West, Israel and the Arab Gulf States, the regime will need more weapons. Building armies, armadas and air forces is expensive and requires too much foreign input; relying on proxies against well-armed adversaries is precarious. Hegemony on the cheap can come only from the atomic bomb.

There is no longer any meaningful obstacle to the regime’s nuclear ambitions. The Biden administration is too predictable and fearful. The debacle in Afghanistan and the rhetoric about ending “forever wars” has emboldened Tehran, which now toys with the U.S. through on-and-off nuclear talks. In his truculent address to the U.N. General Assembly last month, Mr. Raisi mocked America. “From the Capitol to Kabul,” he said, “one clear message was sent to the world: The U.S. hegemonic system has no credibility, whether inside or outside the country.”

Sanctions have damaged Iran’s economy, but they haven’t slaked the thirst for nuclear arms. Revolutionaries aren’t bankers; they don’t conduct cost-benefit assessments.

The notion that Israel can come to the rescue with a military strike is also doubtful. Jerusalem has had its share of tough-talking prime ministers, but so far it has relied on sabotage and targeted assassinations to stall Iran’s nuclear program. Such measures won’t alter Iran’s atomic trajectory. Tehran’s advances in centrifuge development will soon make pre-emption impossible.

No force in history has proved more powerful than self-delusion. Mr. Khamenei has already thought what the West still believes is unthinkable. He believes he is on the cusp of getting even. The White House and Congress should start thinking about what to do after Iran’s first detonation to ensure an Iranian bomb becomes a liability for the regime, not an asset.

The administration should try to marshal an international consensus against trade with Tehran by first getting the French, the European country most serious about nonproliferation, on board. Congress could pass legislation restricting access to U.S. markets for those who trade with Iran.

If nothing is done, realism and defeatism—the two often travel together—could play decisively to the regime’s advantage.

Mr. Gerecht, a former Iran targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations and the author of “The Last Shah: America, Iran and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty.”
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....

Waves of Change Hit Iran’s Regime Once Again

By Jazeh Miller - 18th October 2021

The most critical problem that the Iranian regime is facing is its security, a problem that existed from the outset, with an increasing trend.

Security concerns have begun internally, with clashes between the regime’s forces and democratic groups, after capturing forcibly the power in Iran in 1979.

All the years the main war between the regime and other currents was not the wars between it and other countries and its so-called external enemies and countries, but with the people, who have sought to overthrow the regime.

Executions and the regime’s cruel rules are only explainable in this field. These concerns increased after the fall of the Iraqi government and Iraq’s invasion in 2003 by the US forces.

After this event and fearing to be the next dictatorship to be overthrown regime while expressing that it has been surrounded by the many US base in the neighboring countries, the regime started its support of terror groups and its proxy forces with more intensity. Even attacking the US forces at any opportunity.

After capturing the power in Iraq by its proxy forces, with the start of the freedom fights in Syria in 2011 the regime fearing to lose its influence in Syria and losing one of its main allies in the Middle East, Bashar Assad’s dictatorship, Iran’s regime decided to support it intensively with the help of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other urgently created proxy terror groups such as the Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zainebiyoun and many others.

The regime went further and sent even its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and IRGC Qods Forces to this country to repress the revolution of the people raised against Assad’s regime.

After it was emboldened by its victories in Iraq and Syria and claiming that it was successful to create the Shia crescent which was one of the regime’s main goals from its beginning, it started another war in Yemen in 2014 with the help of the Houthis, which is now continuing. It should be noted that the regime before the start of this war has tested its chance in Bahrain in 2011 which failed.

Now after these years it seems that the regime is once again surrounded by the same crises and security issues, which the most important of them are the latest Iranian people’s protests in 2017 and 2019 and the people’s boycott of the presidential election which brought the regime nearly to its end.

The change in Afghanistan despite the Iranian regime’s many years of support for the Taliban and its latest disputes with Azerbaijan’s government, losing the election in Iraq, the decision of the Arab nations to unity in confronting the regime, especially their decision to cooperate with Israel and more important its nuclear and missile case which has reached a critical point, being warned by many of the world powers shows that all the regime’s efforts to prevent stop the wave of changes has been failed.

Hassan Rouhani, the regime’s then-president, and Ali Larijani, the regime’s then parliament speaker, who has remained more silent since the presidency of Ebrahim Raisi and has not taken specific positions, especially in foreign policy, have now issued warning tweets shortly after.

Larijani and Rouhani tweeted one thing in common: Awareness of the various threats facing the regime.

Larijani tweeted: “Kunduz’s crime soon revealed the identity of the new evil organizing in Afghanistan. This stinging of powers calls for deeper vigilance in diplomacy to protect interests and Iran’s security [read regime’s security].” (Ali Larijani)
Three days later, on October 12, Hassan Rouhani in a tweet, referring to the 32nd anniversary of the establishment of the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, described the policy of removing Iran from chapter 7 of the UN Charter in 2015 as one of the decisive decisions of this institution.

Rouhani tweeted: “On October 12, 32 years ago, the Supreme National Security Council was established. The policy of ‘active neutrality’ by the coalition’s invasion of Iraq in 1990 and removing Iran from chapter 7 of the UN Charter in 2015 is one of the decisive decisions of this body. Vigilance towards regional/global developments and a (#brave tact) for peace and national security are essential to the country’s progress.” (Hassan Rouhani)

The keyword Rouhani and the hashtag he used to emphasize it indicate that the regime’s former president is seriously fearing the regime’s international conditions, especially in the JCPOA, which the new regime’s administration has yet to take concrete action on and has not accepted any new agreement.

This condition is something that the regime’s media are now warning about it.

“However, Rouhani and Larijani’s warnings must be taken seriously. They seem to be concerned that the current conditions in the region and the world could be detrimental to Iran if the current ‘diplomatic Sloppiness’ continues.

“Given the delay of Raisi’s diplomacy team in the JCPOA, the complicated incident in the north of Aras (Azerbaijan), the dangerous situation in Afghanistan and the development of the Zionist regime’s relations with Arabs, it seems that continuing the current trend spontaneously will lead to the conversion of opportunities to threats.

“A look at the recent Iraqi elections also shows that, apart from military and security tools, political tools have also been activated against Iran, and the continuation of the current process will lead to the closure of Iran’s hand and the open hand of the occupying Qods regime. This comes after the formation of the JCPOA negotiations and the realization of the JCPOA opened the hands of Iran and its allies in the region, and the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia officially lost the game to Iran.

“The failure to revive the JCPOA and the continuation of Iran’s current diplomatic process — which is very passive, contrary to principlist propaganda — will lead Iran not only to lose the game to the Hebrew-Arab alliance but also to take the least benefit from contracts such as the 25-year Iran-China agreement.” (State-run daily Salam-e-no, October 14, 2021)


Yelling about the JCPOA, this paper clearly showed the regime’s situation. Although it attempted to hide its main concern which is the people’s hatred of the regime, these events are connected and will defiantly affect the country’s internal situation.

Related
Iran Regime’s Political-Economic Decisions Have No Result
15th October 2021In "Iran Politics"

Iran’s Regime and Its Illegitimate President
16th August 2021In "Iran Politics"

Mojahedin Is Becoming a Role Model for Iran’s Youth
8th August 2021In "Iranian Opposition"
 

jward

passin' thru





Sim Tack
@SimTack

10m

Very clear signaling by #Israel, attributing budgetary allocation to specific operational intent. At just a fraction of its defense budget, #Israel could easily develop capabilities to strike against #Iran without declaring it.
View: https://twitter.com/SimTack/status/1450702046382940160?s=20


Israel has very clearly ramped up its public discussion of intent to strike Iran. The clear rhetorical shift doesn't mean this is empty propaganda but as it carries no military operational value, it suggests Israel is still looking to affect Iran's behavior through threats first.

Or, alternatively, it could be read as a deception effort implying Israel has yet to completely develop the required capabilities for a strike while in fact perhaps a strike is imminent. The recent rhetoric then could help establish strategic surprise.
 

jward

passin' thru
Can Iran and/or its proxies deploy “dirty bombs” with suicide drones?
Heshmat Alavi

7-9 minutes


Iran unveils Tehran UAV base for drones – Geospatial World
The regime ruling Iran has long been recognized as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Tehran has been investing heavily on its fleet of drones as new weapons to compensate for its aging air force. Considering its controversial nuclear program and world powers pledging to stop the mullahs from obtaining nuclear weapons, one dangerous option before Iran is using suicide drones to conduct “dirty bomb” attacks on a variety of civilian and military targets.
What is a dirty bomb?

“A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device is a speculative radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the dispersal agent/conventional explosion with radioactive material, serving primarily as an area denial device against civilians. It is, however, not to be confused with a nuclear explosion, such as a fission bomb, which by releasing nuclear energy produces blast effects far in excess of what is achievable by the use of conventional explosives.”

Also described as an “improvised nuclear device,” dirty bombs have been in discussion for some time now. Back in 2013, a study by the General Accountability Office concluded that U.S. cities are not ready for nuclear terrorism.
Radiologic Terrorism | Radiology Key
The term nuclear terrorism is what is most important here in our discussion as we review the threats posed by Iran, knowing how this regime provides at least hundreds of millions of dollars each year to a conglomerate of active proxy groups checkered across the Middle East. If U.S. cities were not prepared for nuclear terrorism, rest assured many U.S. bases and U.S. allies in the region are not either.

Can Iran deploy dirty bombs with its drones? One expert has told me it is quite possible.
“A dirty bomb would be a combination of explosives and radioactive dust/pellets that would be dispersed by the explosives. The only question is how much of a payload an individual drone could carry. But then several would be able to cover a fairly wide area,” says Capt. Stu Cvrk, U.S. Navy (Ret), an expert in chemical-biological attack responses.
The Iranian opposition coalition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) held a press conference in Washington, DC, on October 6 providing new information on Iran’s massive drone production and distribution program.
What makes this topic even more troubling is the fact that Iran has a long history of providing its drones and drone production technology to its long slate of proxy terrorists throughout the Middle East.

The Jamestown Foundation – November 17, 2017
Hezbollah’s Drone Program Sets Precedents for Non-State Actors
“Hezbollah’s first successful drone deployment took place in November of 2004, when the group deployed an Iranian made Mirsad-1 military-grade surveillance drone into Israeli airspace and surveilled Nabariva, a city in northern Israel, for about 20 minutes.”

The Jerusalem Post – May 15, 2021
Iran’s hand seen in Hamas drone threat against Israel – analysis
“Why do drone threats matter? Because drones can carry warheads and also move slowly and may be able to maneuver. Most of the Iranian-style drones, which are called ‘loitering munitions’ or ‘kamikaze’ drones, are the kind that can be programmed to fly to a certain destination and then sent on their way.”

Reuters – May 21, 2021
Iran displays long-range combat drone, names it "Gaza"
“Iran has a large missile and drone program, regarding such weapons as an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the United States and other adversaries in the event of war.
“The Revolutionary Guards said the new drone was capable of flying for 35 hours and carrying 13 bombs and 500 kg (1,100 lbs) of electronics equipment, the state news agency IRNA reported.”


NBC News – March 12, 2021
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen ramp up drone, missile attacks on Saudi Arabia
“Iran-backed Houthi forces are launching more and more armed drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia… The scale and reach of the Houthi attacks illustrates how the rebels have progressed as a fighting force since the start of the Yemen war in 2015, and just how much they have benefited from Iranian arms and advice, according to regional analysts and U.N. experts.
“A January U.N. report said there were growing indications that Iran was providing arms and weapons components to the Houthi rebels via smuggling routes at sea.

"An increasing body of evidence suggests that individuals or entities in the Islamic Republic of Iran supply significant volumes of weapons and components to the Houthis," the U.N. panel of experts report said.

Iran used a drone launched from Syria’s T-4 base in Syria to attack Israel in 2018. It managed to enter Israeli airspace before being eventually shot down by a helicopter. There are also reports that Iran advised Hezbollah to dispatch what Israel described a “killer drone” team to an area near the Golan Heights in 2019.
Iran also deployed drones to attack Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil-processing facilities in September 2019.

The New York Times – June 4, 2021
Iran’s Proxies in Iraq Threaten U.S. With More Sophisticated Weapons
Iran-backed militias in Iraq are suspected of carrying out recent drone strikes on sensitive American targets in Iraq, evading U.S. defenses.
“At least three times in the past two months, those militias have used small, explosive-laden drones that divebomb and crash into their targets in late-night attacks on Iraqi bases — including those used by the C.I.A. and U.S. Special Operations units, according to American officials.”

The simplicity of deploying drones, launched from a ground-fixed rail, installed on a truck, or even a boat, have made it all the more conventional for Iran. The regime has established many drone units in its own military and provided these weapons and/or technology to its proxies. Being easily produced and assembly lines not needing sophisticated technology, Iran can transfer money from new sanctions relief — thanks to the Biden administration’s ongoing appeasement policies — to further develop and advance its drone fleet.
Reports in the past have traced gyroscope technology used for guidance in different drones back to Iran, further indicating the regime’s transfer of these arms to its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria. They have even been found in Sudan, Afghanistan and Venezuela, according to numerous reports.
As previously mentioned, Iran has most likely reached the conclusion that world powers will not allow it to obtain nuclear weapons.
“I think that Iran, to this day, is not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon... This is due to longstanding efforts by some forces in the world,” said former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said at The Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference on Tuesday, October 12.

However, Iran may consider reaching the nuclear threshold of establishing the very ability to obtain nuclear weapons at its will or producing numerous “dirty bombs” to be deployed with its drone fleet could provide a major upper hand for Tehran in any negotiations. Something similar to North Korea that has obtained nuclear weapons capability and its threat hangs as a shadow over U.S.’ allies Japan and South Korea.
As a result, the international community, especially the U.S. and Europe, need to adopt firm policies aiming to shelve Iran’s nuclear and drone programs. This is crucial in any possible talks, although indirect, between the U.S. and Iran over the prospects of returning to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Otherwise, money from eventual sanctions relief will fund its nuclear/drone programs, thus increasing the already escalating threats posed by Tehran’s regime.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Can Iran and/or its proxies deploy “dirty bombs” with suicide drones?
Heshmat Alavi

7-9 minutes


Iran unveils Tehran UAV base for drones – Geospatial World
The regime ruling Iran has long been recognized as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Tehran has been investing heavily on its fleet of drones as new weapons to compensate for its aging air force. Considering its controversial nuclear program and world powers pledging to stop the mullahs from obtaining nuclear weapons, one dangerous option before Iran is using suicide drones to conduct “dirty bomb” attacks on a variety of civilian and military targets.
What is a dirty bomb?

“A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device is a speculative radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the dispersal agent/conventional explosion with radioactive material, serving primarily as an area denial device against civilians. It is, however, not to be confused with a nuclear explosion, such as a fission bomb, which by releasing nuclear energy produces blast effects far in excess of what is achievable by the use of conventional explosives.”

Also described as an “improvised nuclear device,” dirty bombs have been in discussion for some time now. Back in 2013, a study by the General Accountability Office concluded that U.S. cities are not ready for nuclear terrorism.
Radiologic Terrorism | Radiology Key
The term nuclear terrorism is what is most important here in our discussion as we review the threats posed by Iran, knowing how this regime provides at least hundreds of millions of dollars each year to a conglomerate of active proxy groups checkered across the Middle East. If U.S. cities were not prepared for nuclear terrorism, rest assured many U.S. bases and U.S. allies in the region are not either.

Can Iran deploy dirty bombs with its drones? One expert has told me it is quite possible.
“A dirty bomb would be a combination of explosives and radioactive dust/pellets that would be dispersed by the explosives. The only question is how much of a payload an individual drone could carry. But then several would be able to cover a fairly wide area,” says Capt. Stu Cvrk, U.S. Navy (Ret), an expert in chemical-biological attack responses.
The Iranian opposition coalition National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) held a press conference in Washington, DC, on October 6 providing new information on Iran’s massive drone production and distribution program.
What makes this topic even more troubling is the fact that Iran has a long history of providing its drones and drone production technology to its long slate of proxy terrorists throughout the Middle East.

The Jamestown Foundation – November 17, 2017
Hezbollah’s Drone Program Sets Precedents for Non-State Actors
“Hezbollah’s first successful drone deployment took place in November of 2004, when the group deployed an Iranian made Mirsad-1 military-grade surveillance drone into Israeli airspace and surveilled Nabariva, a city in northern Israel, for about 20 minutes.”

The Jerusalem Post – May 15, 2021
Iran’s hand seen in Hamas drone threat against Israel – analysis
“Why do drone threats matter? Because drones can carry warheads and also move slowly and may be able to maneuver. Most of the Iranian-style drones, which are called ‘loitering munitions’ or ‘kamikaze’ drones, are the kind that can be programmed to fly to a certain destination and then sent on their way.”

Reuters – May 21, 2021
Iran displays long-range combat drone, names it "Gaza"
“Iran has a large missile and drone program, regarding such weapons as an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the United States and other adversaries in the event of war.
“The Revolutionary Guards said the new drone was capable of flying for 35 hours and carrying 13 bombs and 500 kg (1,100 lbs) of electronics equipment, the state news agency IRNA reported.”


NBC News – March 12, 2021
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen ramp up drone, missile attacks on Saudi Arabia
“Iran-backed Houthi forces are launching more and more armed drones and missiles against Saudi Arabia… The scale and reach of the Houthi attacks illustrates how the rebels have progressed as a fighting force since the start of the Yemen war in 2015, and just how much they have benefited from Iranian arms and advice, according to regional analysts and U.N. experts.
“A January U.N. report said there were growing indications that Iran was providing arms and weapons components to the Houthi rebels via smuggling routes at sea.

"An increasing body of evidence suggests that individuals or entities in the Islamic Republic of Iran supply significant volumes of weapons and components to the Houthis," the U.N. panel of experts report said.

Iran used a drone launched from Syria’s T-4 base in Syria to attack Israel in 2018. It managed to enter Israeli airspace before being eventually shot down by a helicopter. There are also reports that Iran advised Hezbollah to dispatch what Israel described a “killer drone” team to an area near the Golan Heights in 2019.
Iran also deployed drones to attack Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil-processing facilities in September 2019.

The New York Times – June 4, 2021
Iran’s Proxies in Iraq Threaten U.S. With More Sophisticated Weapons
Iran-backed militias in Iraq are suspected of carrying out recent drone strikes on sensitive American targets in Iraq, evading U.S. defenses.
“At least three times in the past two months, those militias have used small, explosive-laden drones that divebomb and crash into their targets in late-night attacks on Iraqi bases — including those used by the C.I.A. and U.S. Special Operations units, according to American officials.”

The simplicity of deploying drones, launched from a ground-fixed rail, installed on a truck, or even a boat, have made it all the more conventional for Iran. The regime has established many drone units in its own military and provided these weapons and/or technology to its proxies. Being easily produced and assembly lines not needing sophisticated technology, Iran can transfer money from new sanctions relief — thanks to the Biden administration’s ongoing appeasement policies — to further develop and advance its drone fleet.
Reports in the past have traced gyroscope technology used for guidance in different drones back to Iran, further indicating the regime’s transfer of these arms to its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria. They have even been found in Sudan, Afghanistan and Venezuela, according to numerous reports.
As previously mentioned, Iran has most likely reached the conclusion that world powers will not allow it to obtain nuclear weapons.
“I think that Iran, to this day, is not even close to acquiring a nuclear weapon... This is due to longstanding efforts by some forces in the world,” said former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said at The Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference on Tuesday, October 12.

However, Iran may consider reaching the nuclear threshold of establishing the very ability to obtain nuclear weapons at its will or producing numerous “dirty bombs” to be deployed with its drone fleet could provide a major upper hand for Tehran in any negotiations. Something similar to North Korea that has obtained nuclear weapons capability and its threat hangs as a shadow over U.S.’ allies Japan and South Korea.
As a result, the international community, especially the U.S. and Europe, need to adopt firm policies aiming to shelve Iran’s nuclear and drone programs. This is crucial in any possible talks, although indirect, between the U.S. and Iran over the prospects of returning to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Otherwise, money from eventual sanctions relief will fund its nuclear/drone programs, thus increasing the already escalating threats posed by Tehran’s regime.

Of course they can. It's just a matter of whether or not they're willing to pay the piper for doing it and using them.
 

jward

passin' thru
Rev. Johnnie Moore ن
@JohnnieM


Reports that Iran, through its proxies, attacked a base housing American forces in Syria, no casualties (thank God) — an attack nonetheless. Notice I said “Iran.” We should really dispense of “Iran-backed militia” nonsense. Iran’s militias are trained, funded & directed…


_______________________
Guy Elster
@guyelster

40m

#BREAKING Tanf base in south-east #Syria was attacked, according to several reports. The base hosts US forces

Tanf base was hit by a rocket, no casualties according to Sky News in Arabic, which cits a security official in US army
 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru
Liberman: Conflict with Iran a matter of time, not far off
Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman said "a confrontation with Iran is only a matter of time, and not a long time."
By TAL SHALEV/WALLA, YAKI ADAMKAR/WALLA
OCTOBER 21, 2021 14:06

Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

An IAF fighter jet is seen taking off amid the Vered Hagalil drill in Israel's North. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)


An IAF fighter jet is seen taking off amid the Vered Hagalil drill in Israel's North.

(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)





Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman said Thursday that "a confrontation with Iran is only a matter of time, and not a long time."

In an interview at Walla studios with Tal Shalev and Yaki Adamkar, Liberman stressed that "no diplomatic move or agreement will stop the Iranian nuclear program. They see North Korea, despite the diplomatic moves, they see its unprecedented intensification. The Jewish people must not live in illusions. Hitler wrote his book in 1923 and then seized power. This is a problem of the international community but first of all ours because they have stated that their policy is the destruction of Israel, and they do mean it."

The Finance Minister referred to the defense budget approved by the government. "They were surprised why such a large budget was approved for the IDF. The money is going to become stronger and the purchase of advanced systems. There is also money for the northern protection program after it took three years."




Liberman discussed the outline for shortening shifts and the agreement reached by Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz with the protest organizers. "I talked to Horowitz, he's a decent man. This arrangement for interns was determined in 2011. The intern's shift is 26 hours, and the average intern's salary is NIS 24,000 per month. For ten years it did not bother anyone. We are in the government for three months and we are being attacked to fix the whole situation, it is not fair. We will examine this in the framework of the agreement with the medical union."

According to him, "Horowitz did not finalize anything" on his own with the interns. "We proposed an outline called 'Periphery First' with Orna Barbivai and Horowitz, and it is important to emphasize that there is no shortage of interns at Tel Hashomer or Ichilov, there is a great shortage in the periphery, Eilat, Nahariya and Safed, and we need to take care of them. That is why we have built an outline that is acceptable to everyone. I assume that after Pesach we will enter into negotiations on a new collective arrangement and until then nothing. Everything else is really stories."
 MED STUDENTS demonstrate in Tel Aviv in support of doctors, interns and residents who resigned in protest of 26-hour-shifts and heavy workload in hospitals, October 17, 2021 (credit: MIRSHAM)
MED STUDENTS demonstrate in Tel Aviv in support of doctors, interns and residents who resigned in protest of 26-hour-shifts and heavy workload in hospitals, October 17, 2021 (credit: MIRSHAM)

He went on to attack protest leader Ray Bitton and said: “You can log on to her Facebook and see that five days a week she runs a private clinic from morning to night, with all the services. So it is impossible to say that everyone is exhausted and works for a meager wage. Working conditions are not optimal, but reasonable. This is what is accepted in the United States and around the world, not just here."

The finance minister was asked about the climate crisis, and the decision to raise taxation on disposable products. "I have not used disposable utensils for a long time. I do not understand the madness that consumption here is over four times as much as the European Union, it harms the environment and the climate."

He referred to the harm to the ultra-Orthodox public as a result of the reform. "I do not understand who sees this as harmful to him. 40 years ago there were no single-use utensils and no dishwashers, these stories are plots of Shas and United Torah Judaism. These are not taxes, in the end, the consumer will not buy single-use utensils, and it is meant to change the behavioral patterns of the citizens of Israel."


Liberman was also asked about the salaries of IDF NOCs and the supplement to the pension. "This arrangement was set in the 1960s by Ben-Gurion. We made orders and reduced the amount, took off the regular service years for calculating the pension and saved several hundred million [shekel]. The attempt to present NOCs as pirates of the Caribbean is invalid."

On the salary for soldiers in regular service, the finance minister said: "There is no salary for regular soldiers, there is a subsistence allowance. We do not have a mercenary or professional army. I promised before the election to increase the subsistence allowance for regular soldiers by 50%, what do you want? It's been four months, check me after a year."

Liberman accused the Likud and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu of the cynical use of IDF soldiers. "This is the most cynical and dangerous thing I have ever seen. This is the first time that a big party is manipulating young people, aged 18, 19 and 20. Netanyahu makes political use of soldiers to incite against another party. Netanyahu said at the Likud faction meeting that 'this is the strongest point in public opinion at the moment, talk about it as much as possible.' Who prevented him from doing that? You were in power until 2021, why did Netanyahu not do that? This is utter cynicism and manipulation. He does not really care about IDF soldiers, it is a political use."
Something (someone) big fixin' 2 go BoomBoom eh?
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com

6h

Clash between #Israel and #Iran will happen soon, Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman warns; military confrontation is a matter of time and not much time, he tells @WallaNews; diplomatic moves will not stop Iran's nuclear project, he says in clear message.
 
Top