I wonder how long that will last?.......
WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread
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I wonder how long that will last?.......
northern watch
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With eye on Iran, Israeli navy steps up Red Sea presence
Israel's just-retired navy chief says the military has stepped up its activities in the Red Sea “exponentially” in the face of growing Iranian threats to Israeli shipping
By JOSEF FEDERMAN Associated Press
15 September 2021, 23:16
The Associated Press
Vice Adm. Eli Sharvit looks out from aboard the Israeli Navy Ship Atzmaut in the Mediterranean Sea, Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2021. Speaking to The Associated Press days after completing his five-year term, Sharvit described Iranian activities on the high seas as a top Israeli concern and said the navy is able to strike wherever necessary to protect the country’s economic and security interests. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
ATLIT, Israel -- Israel’s navy has stepped up its activities in the Red Sea “exponentially” in the face of growing Iranian threats to Israeli shipping, the country’s just-retired navy commander said in an interview.
Vice Adm. Eli Sharvit stopped short of confirming a series of attacks and mishaps on Iranian ships that have been attributed to Israel. But he described Iranian activities on the high seas as a top Israeli concern and said the navy is able to strike wherever necessary to protect the country’s economic and security interests.
“The state of Israel will protect its freedom of navigation across the globe,” Sharvit told The Associated Press, days after completing his five-year term. “That’s not related to distance from the country.”
Sharvit was a busy man during his tenure — overseeing a small but well-equipped force responsible for safeguarding Israel’s Mediterranean coast as well as the Red Sea, a vital gateway for imports from Asia.
While the Israeli navy has an overwhelming advantage over its enemies in the region, it nonetheless faces an array of threats. They include the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which possesses an arsenal of guided surface-to-sea missiles, and Gaza’s Hamas militant group, which has developed a small squad of naval commandos, as well as the challenges posed by Iran's military activity across the region.
One of the navy’s most important responsibilities is protecting Israel’s natural gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea, which now provide some 75% of the country’s electricity.
To the north, Hezbollah has made no secret of its intentions to target those platforms if war breaks out. The Iranian-backed militant group successfully struck an Israeli naval vessel during a 2006 war, killing four soldiers, and is believed to have vastly upgraded its missile stockpile since then. Israel says Iran continues to try to smuggle sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah.
Sharvit confirmed that Israel has intercepted many arms shipments to Hezbollah. “We are very vigilant concerning seaborne arms shipments, and every time that a shipment is one of arms, and not something else, we act,” he said.
With Lebanon’s economy in disarray, however, he said Israel has “no interest” in stopping fuel deliveries meant for civilian use.
Along Israel’s southern flank, Sharvit said Hamas has a small but formidable unit of well-trained naval commandos.
Hamas frogmen managed to infiltrate an Israeli beach during a 2014 war before they were killed. Since then, the unit has been equipped with state-of-the-art equipment allowing them to travel underwater well up Israel’s coastline and making them much harder to detect, Sharvit said.
During a recent war in May, Israel says it thwarted an attempt by Hamas to launch a torpedo-like underwater drone at Israeli targets.
Israel has faced criticism over its naval blockade and heavy restrictions on Gaza. Israel says the blockade is needed to prevent a Hamas military buildup. But critics, including human rights groups and U.N. officials, say the policy amounts to collective punishment.
“Israel’s disproportionate and unreasonable restrictions on access to Gaza’s territorial waters as well as to vital items needed to repair fishing boats harm the livelihoods of thousands, put lives at risk and hinder economic development,” said Gisha, an Israeli rights group that has called for the blockade to be eased.
Sharvit, however, said it is difficult to separate the civilian and military spheres because Hamas uses the open waters to test rockets and train its navy commandos. “The sea is the biggest test site in Gaza,” he said.
But Israel’s biggest concern, by far, is archenemy Iran. Israel accuses Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies. It also cites Iran’s military presence in neighboring Syria and Iran’s support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
In recent years, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war that has seen the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists, mysterious explosions at Iranian nuclear facilities and more recently a series of explosions on cargo ships with Iranian or Israeli connections. In most cases, no one has claimed responsibility.
Sharvit refused to discuss specific operations but said Israeli naval activity in the Red Sea has grown “exponentially” over the past three years.
Iran for years anchored a ship off Yemen that was believed to be a base for its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. That ship, the MV Saviz, came under a suspected Israeli attack last April.
The Red Sea also has deep strategic significance by hosting key global shipping routes, including the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Almost all of Israel’s imports enter by sea.
“We have increased our presence in the Red Sea most significantly,” Sharvit said. “We are operating there continuously with main ships, that is to say missile frigates and submarines. What in the past was for relatively short periods of time is now done continuously.”
He also said that Israel is ready to respond even further away to direct attacks on Israeli shipping. “If there were an attack on Israeli shipping lanes or Israeli freedom of navigation, Israel would have to respond,” he said.
He said that has not yet happened. The cargo ships believed to have been targeted by Iran in the Persian Gulf had Israeli connections but were owned and operated by businesses based elsewhere. He said such attacks merit an international response.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, described the navy as “good but small” and cautioned against relying too heavily on it in Israel’s overall Iran strategy.
“I think some operations may be an overstretch,” he said, adding that heightened tensions at sea could expose Israel’s vulnerabilities connected to its heavy reliance on global shipping.
“I would put my efforts elsewhere,” he said.
With eye on Iran, Israeli navy steps up Red Sea presence - ABC News (go.com)
Israel's just-retired navy chief says the military has stepped up its activities in the Red Sea “exponentially” in the face of growing Iranian threats to Israeli shipping
By JOSEF FEDERMAN Associated Press
15 September 2021, 23:16
Vice Adm. Eli Sharvit looks out from aboard the Israeli Navy Ship Atzmaut in the Mediterranean Sea, Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2021. Speaking to The Associated Press days after completing his five-year term, Sharvit described Iranian activities on the high seas as a top Israeli concern and said the navy is able to strike wherever necessary to protect the country’s economic and security interests. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
ATLIT, Israel -- Israel’s navy has stepped up its activities in the Red Sea “exponentially” in the face of growing Iranian threats to Israeli shipping, the country’s just-retired navy commander said in an interview.
Vice Adm. Eli Sharvit stopped short of confirming a series of attacks and mishaps on Iranian ships that have been attributed to Israel. But he described Iranian activities on the high seas as a top Israeli concern and said the navy is able to strike wherever necessary to protect the country’s economic and security interests.
“The state of Israel will protect its freedom of navigation across the globe,” Sharvit told The Associated Press, days after completing his five-year term. “That’s not related to distance from the country.”
Sharvit was a busy man during his tenure — overseeing a small but well-equipped force responsible for safeguarding Israel’s Mediterranean coast as well as the Red Sea, a vital gateway for imports from Asia.
While the Israeli navy has an overwhelming advantage over its enemies in the region, it nonetheless faces an array of threats. They include the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which possesses an arsenal of guided surface-to-sea missiles, and Gaza’s Hamas militant group, which has developed a small squad of naval commandos, as well as the challenges posed by Iran's military activity across the region.
One of the navy’s most important responsibilities is protecting Israel’s natural gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea, which now provide some 75% of the country’s electricity.
To the north, Hezbollah has made no secret of its intentions to target those platforms if war breaks out. The Iranian-backed militant group successfully struck an Israeli naval vessel during a 2006 war, killing four soldiers, and is believed to have vastly upgraded its missile stockpile since then. Israel says Iran continues to try to smuggle sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah.
Sharvit confirmed that Israel has intercepted many arms shipments to Hezbollah. “We are very vigilant concerning seaborne arms shipments, and every time that a shipment is one of arms, and not something else, we act,” he said.
With Lebanon’s economy in disarray, however, he said Israel has “no interest” in stopping fuel deliveries meant for civilian use.
Along Israel’s southern flank, Sharvit said Hamas has a small but formidable unit of well-trained naval commandos.
Hamas frogmen managed to infiltrate an Israeli beach during a 2014 war before they were killed. Since then, the unit has been equipped with state-of-the-art equipment allowing them to travel underwater well up Israel’s coastline and making them much harder to detect, Sharvit said.
During a recent war in May, Israel says it thwarted an attempt by Hamas to launch a torpedo-like underwater drone at Israeli targets.
Israel has faced criticism over its naval blockade and heavy restrictions on Gaza. Israel says the blockade is needed to prevent a Hamas military buildup. But critics, including human rights groups and U.N. officials, say the policy amounts to collective punishment.
“Israel’s disproportionate and unreasonable restrictions on access to Gaza’s territorial waters as well as to vital items needed to repair fishing boats harm the livelihoods of thousands, put lives at risk and hinder economic development,” said Gisha, an Israeli rights group that has called for the blockade to be eased.
Sharvit, however, said it is difficult to separate the civilian and military spheres because Hamas uses the open waters to test rockets and train its navy commandos. “The sea is the biggest test site in Gaza,” he said.
But Israel’s biggest concern, by far, is archenemy Iran. Israel accuses Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies. It also cites Iran’s military presence in neighboring Syria and Iran’s support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
In recent years, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war that has seen the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists, mysterious explosions at Iranian nuclear facilities and more recently a series of explosions on cargo ships with Iranian or Israeli connections. In most cases, no one has claimed responsibility.
Sharvit refused to discuss specific operations but said Israeli naval activity in the Red Sea has grown “exponentially” over the past three years.
Iran for years anchored a ship off Yemen that was believed to be a base for its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. That ship, the MV Saviz, came under a suspected Israeli attack last April.
The Red Sea also has deep strategic significance by hosting key global shipping routes, including the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Almost all of Israel’s imports enter by sea.
“We have increased our presence in the Red Sea most significantly,” Sharvit said. “We are operating there continuously with main ships, that is to say missile frigates and submarines. What in the past was for relatively short periods of time is now done continuously.”
He also said that Israel is ready to respond even further away to direct attacks on Israeli shipping. “If there were an attack on Israeli shipping lanes or Israeli freedom of navigation, Israel would have to respond,” he said.
He said that has not yet happened. The cargo ships believed to have been targeted by Iran in the Persian Gulf had Israeli connections but were owned and operated by businesses based elsewhere. He said such attacks merit an international response.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, described the navy as “good but small” and cautioned against relying too heavily on it in Israel’s overall Iran strategy.
“I think some operations may be an overstretch,” he said, adding that heightened tensions at sea could expose Israel’s vulnerabilities connected to its heavy reliance on global shipping.
“I would put my efforts elsewhere,” he said.
With eye on Iran, Israeli navy steps up Red Sea presence - ABC News (go.com)
Posted for fair use.....
www.strategypage.com
Iran: Ancient Rivalries, New Realities
September 16, 2021: The safety of Afghan Shia, now that the Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan, has become a major issue in Iran. The new Taliban government, now more openly controlled by Pakistan, is not seen as an improvement by most Iranians or the 20 percent of Afghans that are Shia. Many of those Afghans served as Iranian mercenaries in Syria and some are still there because they are the best, and most expensive, mercs. The new hardline Iranian government regards “defending all Shia” as one of its core functions. Doing that in Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nations that have been notorious for persistent anti-Shia violence, is going to be difficult. So far the Taliban have not gone after Afghan Shia, but Iran knows that could change quickly. The centuries old Sunni animosity towards Shia remains. As in the past, Iran will try to get what it can from the Taliban while remembering that many Taliban factions and individuals see tolerance for Shia as bad for Afghanistan.
The Quds Force commander was recently called to address Iran’s parliament about this and admitted that there were no assurances that the attacks on Shia would not resume. Pakistan sees Iranian influence in Afghanistan as a threat. Not just because of the Shia security thing, but also because Iran has, for years, been supporting anti-Pakistan Taliban factions. These are almost all Sunni and the Quds Force sees them as valuable assets. All this has been a factor in western Afghanistan politics for centuries. That is why one of the “national” languages of Afghanistan is Dari, a variant of Farsi. This is still called Persian by many because it is the main language in Iran. Currently Iran is broke and there is growing popular unrest against the religious dictatorship that has run the country since the 1980s. While the supplies of cash and weapons have largely disappeared, some Taliban factions still maintain bases in eastern Iran and have access to local medical facilities and markets.
Then there is the ancient rivalry between Persians and Indians over who gets what inside Afghanistan. The economic basis of that rivalry was control over portions of the Silk Road trade routes between China and points West. The Silk Road was replaced by more efficient European ships, and their firepower, centuries ago. In the 21st century China is reviving the Silk Road as an overland and maritime network through nations friendly towards trade with and investments from China. Iran and India see this as a threat while Pakistan sees it as an economic lifeline as well as an obligation to do what China wants. In Afghanistan China is willing to do business with whoever can provide a safe environment for Chinese investments and trade. There are doubts that anyone can do that and China is waiting to see what Iran and Pakistan can do about it. India and Russia are also cautious about doing business in Afghanistan. Because of the Pakistani control over the Taliban, India is now banned from Afghanistan but still has valuable trade relationships with Iran that Iran does not want to lose. China and India are currently archenemies of each other. Finally, there are the Afghan-based drug cartels that supply most of the heroin to the entire planet. While universally hated throughout the region, cartel money is a major source of income for the Taliban and the Pakistan military, which is currently running the government in Pakistan.
Iran still has major, and expensive, problems in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. All these efforts are managed by the Quds Force as part of the ongoing war against Israel and Saudi Arabia. None of these conflicts are doing well for Iran. The most damage to Iran is occurring in Syria. The core problem is that if Sunni Islamic terrorists remain in northwest Syria (Idlib province), while ISIL is active in eastern Syria and Iranians near the Israeli border, the Syrian civil war will not be over. Iran needs that civil war to end so they can concentrate on Israel. So far no one, not even Iranian allies, are cooperating. The only ones who cannot walk away from this are the Syrian Assad government, Turkey and Israel. Syria has been at war with Israel from the beginning when modern Syria was created in 1946 and Israel in 1948. Israel would like to make peace with Syria but will settle for a quiet border. Russia depicts itself as an old (since the 1950s) Syrian ally and interested only in peace and prosperity for Syria. That leaves Iran as the real interloper and troublemaker. Dealing with Iran has been a headache for Turkey and Russia for centuries while the Arabs have several thousand years of bad memories created by Iran. In other words, Iran is difficult to deal with, something everyone can agree on. That is a common problem, not an incentive to violently gang up on Iran. Yet there is an unofficial anti-Iran coalition in Syria, with Israel, Russia, Turkey and the Assad Syrian government as active members. Israel is doing most of the fighting and hurting Iran in a major way. Russia, Turkey and Syria sympathize with Iran but do little beyond that and Iran does not like this sort of thing because it is straight out of the ancient Iranian playbook. The Syrian mess makes Iran, and especially Quds Force, look bad to Iranian minions in Iraq (Shia radicals on the Iranian payroll), Yemen (more Shia rebels), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas). Technically Iran also has minions in Afghanistan where the local Shia and anti-Pakistan groups appreciate the help but were never very good at the obedient minion thing. Quds Force recently admitted as much in parliament where it was made clear that Quds could issue orders to the minions but, in Afghanistan, negotiations were also necessary.
Lebanon Endgame
In Lebanon, Iran is trying to revive Hezbollah power by sending several illegal oil shipments to Syria rather than Lebanon because Syria is already under sanctions and Lebanon is not, at least not yet. Iran hopes to change that, in order to make Lebanon easier to control because Hezbollah already controls many of the black market and outlaw enterprises in Lebanon. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon since the 1980s when they provided the cash and military assistance to form Hezbollah. This was don’t to protect the Shia minority in Lebanon. Where the Shia were one of the many factions participating in a civil war that had been going on since 1975 and Iranian interference led to a negotiated end to the civil war. This involved Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states, cooperating with Iran. This settlement came with a catch that meant the civil war had not ended but just paused while Iran expanded Hezbollah power via cash and weapons. Hezbollah soon became a state within a state by controlling large portions of southern Lebanon and acquiring veto power over the elected Lebanese government. Iran also acquired Syria as an ally in the 1980s and got away with having Syrian troops part of the peacekeeper force that occupied much of Lebanon to prevent the civil war from restarting. Most Lebanese saw the Syrian troops as an occupation force that was there to protect black market and drug smuggling operations that enriched Hezbollah and Syria at the expense of most Lebanese. Over the decades the Lebanese government sought to reduce the Iranian influence and illegal Hezbollah control of the south. Iran helped Hezbollah exploit the complex and often corrupt factional politics of Lebanon, which had a population where no one was a majority. Christians were the majority after World War II but that changed as Palestinians moved in as refugees and formed armed militias that became a threat to Lebanese as well as Israel, which until the last decade was generally considered the enemy by most Moslems in the region. That began to change in the 21st century when more and more Arab states realized that Israel was more valuable as an ally than the target of violence that always ended up hurting the Arab attackers much more than the Israeli defenders. The Israelis were also the most effective nation in the region against the growing Iranian threat. Iran and Hezbollah are seen as the cause, and chief beneficiary of the recent collapse of the Lebanese economy and continued political chaos. The non-Shia majority in Lebanon realize that the fuel shipments to Lebanon are not “free” but do fill an immediate need because the Lebanese currency is worthless and the economy unable to function. With control of the black market for fuel, Hezbollah and Iran can expand their power, as they did in Syria until 2011 when the non-Shia majority rebelled.
Nuclear News
The new Iranian government has made it clear that it wants all sanctions lifted before any serious (and probably unsuccessful) negotiations over ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program can take place. China does not see Iranian nukes as a problem because Iran understands that China has no qualms about using extreme (even nuclear) violence against any threats from a nuclear armed Iran. China is telling Iran that China can be their best friend or worst enemy. So far Iran is playing nice towards China because that makes it easier to pressure European countries into lifting sanctions despite Iran continuing with its nuclear problem. The Americans are still a problem but are not beyond some creative deception and intimidation.
Economic conditions for most Iranians continue to get worse. Last month the (12-month average) inflation rate hit 45 percent and is a little worse in rural areas, where most of the religious dictatorship supporters live. The American trade and financial sanctions mean there are a lot fewer dollars in Iran and these are essential to pay for imports. The Iranian currency has been at record lows versus the U.S. dollar. Currently it costs about 278,000 rials to buy one U.S. dollar. A year ago it hit a record 317,000 rials per dollar. This catastrophic weakening of the rial began in 2017 when the U.S. revived economic sanctions. By August 2019 it cost 120,000 rials to buy a dollar. Back in 2015 a dollar could be had for 32,000 rials. The current foreign exchange crisis is partly due to exporters of non-oil goods keeping about half the money they receive outside the country. That is a good business decision because that money is safer from government corruption if it is kept in foreign banks. These sanctions plus the covid19 shutdowns shrank the economy (GDP) by nearly ten percent in 2020. GDP has been tanking since sanctions were revived in 2017. Inflation was 30 percent a year ago and getting worse. The unemployment rate is twelve percent but the underemployment rate, because of firms shut down by quarantines, is much higher. Over half the population is visibly living below the poverty line. For more than a year a growing number of senior officials expressed fear this will spark another round of violent anti-government protests. Even government-controlled media is openly discussing this prospect. Surrender is not an option for the religious dictatorship, which encouraged retired IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) generals to run for parliament and the presidency. This worked and the 2021 elections created a very pro-dictatorship parliament and president. While parliamentary decisions are subject to veto by the senior clerics in the Guardians Council, such vetoes always cause more popular opposition to the government. With more IRGC men in parliament it is now possible to block embarrassing new laws before they are passed and must be vetoed.
Iran: Ancient Rivalries, New Realities
The safety of Afghan Shia, now that the Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan, has become a major issue in Iran The new Taliban government, now more openly controlled by Pakistan, is not seen as an improvement by most Iranians or the 20 percent of
www.strategypage.com
Iran: Ancient Rivalries, New Realities
September 16, 2021: The safety of Afghan Shia, now that the Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan, has become a major issue in Iran. The new Taliban government, now more openly controlled by Pakistan, is not seen as an improvement by most Iranians or the 20 percent of Afghans that are Shia. Many of those Afghans served as Iranian mercenaries in Syria and some are still there because they are the best, and most expensive, mercs. The new hardline Iranian government regards “defending all Shia” as one of its core functions. Doing that in Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nations that have been notorious for persistent anti-Shia violence, is going to be difficult. So far the Taliban have not gone after Afghan Shia, but Iran knows that could change quickly. The centuries old Sunni animosity towards Shia remains. As in the past, Iran will try to get what it can from the Taliban while remembering that many Taliban factions and individuals see tolerance for Shia as bad for Afghanistan.
The Quds Force commander was recently called to address Iran’s parliament about this and admitted that there were no assurances that the attacks on Shia would not resume. Pakistan sees Iranian influence in Afghanistan as a threat. Not just because of the Shia security thing, but also because Iran has, for years, been supporting anti-Pakistan Taliban factions. These are almost all Sunni and the Quds Force sees them as valuable assets. All this has been a factor in western Afghanistan politics for centuries. That is why one of the “national” languages of Afghanistan is Dari, a variant of Farsi. This is still called Persian by many because it is the main language in Iran. Currently Iran is broke and there is growing popular unrest against the religious dictatorship that has run the country since the 1980s. While the supplies of cash and weapons have largely disappeared, some Taliban factions still maintain bases in eastern Iran and have access to local medical facilities and markets.
Then there is the ancient rivalry between Persians and Indians over who gets what inside Afghanistan. The economic basis of that rivalry was control over portions of the Silk Road trade routes between China and points West. The Silk Road was replaced by more efficient European ships, and their firepower, centuries ago. In the 21st century China is reviving the Silk Road as an overland and maritime network through nations friendly towards trade with and investments from China. Iran and India see this as a threat while Pakistan sees it as an economic lifeline as well as an obligation to do what China wants. In Afghanistan China is willing to do business with whoever can provide a safe environment for Chinese investments and trade. There are doubts that anyone can do that and China is waiting to see what Iran and Pakistan can do about it. India and Russia are also cautious about doing business in Afghanistan. Because of the Pakistani control over the Taliban, India is now banned from Afghanistan but still has valuable trade relationships with Iran that Iran does not want to lose. China and India are currently archenemies of each other. Finally, there are the Afghan-based drug cartels that supply most of the heroin to the entire planet. While universally hated throughout the region, cartel money is a major source of income for the Taliban and the Pakistan military, which is currently running the government in Pakistan.
Iran still has major, and expensive, problems in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. All these efforts are managed by the Quds Force as part of the ongoing war against Israel and Saudi Arabia. None of these conflicts are doing well for Iran. The most damage to Iran is occurring in Syria. The core problem is that if Sunni Islamic terrorists remain in northwest Syria (Idlib province), while ISIL is active in eastern Syria and Iranians near the Israeli border, the Syrian civil war will not be over. Iran needs that civil war to end so they can concentrate on Israel. So far no one, not even Iranian allies, are cooperating. The only ones who cannot walk away from this are the Syrian Assad government, Turkey and Israel. Syria has been at war with Israel from the beginning when modern Syria was created in 1946 and Israel in 1948. Israel would like to make peace with Syria but will settle for a quiet border. Russia depicts itself as an old (since the 1950s) Syrian ally and interested only in peace and prosperity for Syria. That leaves Iran as the real interloper and troublemaker. Dealing with Iran has been a headache for Turkey and Russia for centuries while the Arabs have several thousand years of bad memories created by Iran. In other words, Iran is difficult to deal with, something everyone can agree on. That is a common problem, not an incentive to violently gang up on Iran. Yet there is an unofficial anti-Iran coalition in Syria, with Israel, Russia, Turkey and the Assad Syrian government as active members. Israel is doing most of the fighting and hurting Iran in a major way. Russia, Turkey and Syria sympathize with Iran but do little beyond that and Iran does not like this sort of thing because it is straight out of the ancient Iranian playbook. The Syrian mess makes Iran, and especially Quds Force, look bad to Iranian minions in Iraq (Shia radicals on the Iranian payroll), Yemen (more Shia rebels), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas). Technically Iran also has minions in Afghanistan where the local Shia and anti-Pakistan groups appreciate the help but were never very good at the obedient minion thing. Quds Force recently admitted as much in parliament where it was made clear that Quds could issue orders to the minions but, in Afghanistan, negotiations were also necessary.
A typical loyal minion response was seen recently in Gaza where renewed violence against Israel was no surprise because in August Iran-backed Hamas told Egypt, the mediator of ceasefire talks with Israel, that peace with Israel was no longer possible and another offensive will soon begin. Hamas is trying to get some sympathy and outside access from Egypt. That has not worked since Iran is at war with Egypt because it is an ally of Saudi Arabia. Hamas had demanded free access to the outside world and that means the ability to bring in dual-use materials that can be used for military purposes. Turkey is currently in negotiations with Egypt to revive diplomatic and economic relations and is willing to abandon support for the Moslem Brotherhood and Iran to make Egypt and other Arab states partners once more.Lebanon Endgame
In Lebanon, Iran is trying to revive Hezbollah power by sending several illegal oil shipments to Syria rather than Lebanon because Syria is already under sanctions and Lebanon is not, at least not yet. Iran hopes to change that, in order to make Lebanon easier to control because Hezbollah already controls many of the black market and outlaw enterprises in Lebanon. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon since the 1980s when they provided the cash and military assistance to form Hezbollah. This was don’t to protect the Shia minority in Lebanon. Where the Shia were one of the many factions participating in a civil war that had been going on since 1975 and Iranian interference led to a negotiated end to the civil war. This involved Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states, cooperating with Iran. This settlement came with a catch that meant the civil war had not ended but just paused while Iran expanded Hezbollah power via cash and weapons. Hezbollah soon became a state within a state by controlling large portions of southern Lebanon and acquiring veto power over the elected Lebanese government. Iran also acquired Syria as an ally in the 1980s and got away with having Syrian troops part of the peacekeeper force that occupied much of Lebanon to prevent the civil war from restarting. Most Lebanese saw the Syrian troops as an occupation force that was there to protect black market and drug smuggling operations that enriched Hezbollah and Syria at the expense of most Lebanese. Over the decades the Lebanese government sought to reduce the Iranian influence and illegal Hezbollah control of the south. Iran helped Hezbollah exploit the complex and often corrupt factional politics of Lebanon, which had a population where no one was a majority. Christians were the majority after World War II but that changed as Palestinians moved in as refugees and formed armed militias that became a threat to Lebanese as well as Israel, which until the last decade was generally considered the enemy by most Moslems in the region. That began to change in the 21st century when more and more Arab states realized that Israel was more valuable as an ally than the target of violence that always ended up hurting the Arab attackers much more than the Israeli defenders. The Israelis were also the most effective nation in the region against the growing Iranian threat. Iran and Hezbollah are seen as the cause, and chief beneficiary of the recent collapse of the Lebanese economy and continued political chaos. The non-Shia majority in Lebanon realize that the fuel shipments to Lebanon are not “free” but do fill an immediate need because the Lebanese currency is worthless and the economy unable to function. With control of the black market for fuel, Hezbollah and Iran can expand their power, as they did in Syria until 2011 when the non-Shia majority rebelled.
For the moment Iran cannot call on Hezbollah to carry out any sort of major military operation against Israel. First, Hezbollah must deal with local problems because most Lebanese want Hezbollah gone and getting Lebanon involved in another war with Israel might see Hezbollah fighting Israel and Lebanese at the same time. Iran wants to destroy one enemy at a time. Iran hopes a major war with Israel will result in more popular support from all Moslems in the region. That’s more of a gamble than a sure thing as Iran has replaced Israel as the designated “enemy”.Nuclear News
The new Iranian government has made it clear that it wants all sanctions lifted before any serious (and probably unsuccessful) negotiations over ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program can take place. China does not see Iranian nukes as a problem because Iran understands that China has no qualms about using extreme (even nuclear) violence against any threats from a nuclear armed Iran. China is telling Iran that China can be their best friend or worst enemy. So far Iran is playing nice towards China because that makes it easier to pressure European countries into lifting sanctions despite Iran continuing with its nuclear problem. The Americans are still a problem but are not beyond some creative deception and intimidation.
What Really Matters NewsEconomic conditions for most Iranians continue to get worse. Last month the (12-month average) inflation rate hit 45 percent and is a little worse in rural areas, where most of the religious dictatorship supporters live. The American trade and financial sanctions mean there are a lot fewer dollars in Iran and these are essential to pay for imports. The Iranian currency has been at record lows versus the U.S. dollar. Currently it costs about 278,000 rials to buy one U.S. dollar. A year ago it hit a record 317,000 rials per dollar. This catastrophic weakening of the rial began in 2017 when the U.S. revived economic sanctions. By August 2019 it cost 120,000 rials to buy a dollar. Back in 2015 a dollar could be had for 32,000 rials. The current foreign exchange crisis is partly due to exporters of non-oil goods keeping about half the money they receive outside the country. That is a good business decision because that money is safer from government corruption if it is kept in foreign banks. These sanctions plus the covid19 shutdowns shrank the economy (GDP) by nearly ten percent in 2020. GDP has been tanking since sanctions were revived in 2017. Inflation was 30 percent a year ago and getting worse. The unemployment rate is twelve percent but the underemployment rate, because of firms shut down by quarantines, is much higher. Over half the population is visibly living below the poverty line. For more than a year a growing number of senior officials expressed fear this will spark another round of violent anti-government protests. Even government-controlled media is openly discussing this prospect. Surrender is not an option for the religious dictatorship, which encouraged retired IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) generals to run for parliament and the presidency. This worked and the 2021 elections created a very pro-dictatorship parliament and president. While parliamentary decisions are subject to veto by the senior clerics in the Guardians Council, such vetoes always cause more popular opposition to the government. With more IRGC men in parliament it is now possible to block embarrassing new laws before they are passed and must be vetoed.
Posted for fair use.....
Iran: Ancient Rivalries, New Realities
The safety of Afghan Shia, now that the Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan, has become a major issue in Iran The new Taliban government, now more openly controlled by Pakistan, is not seen as an improvement by most Iranians or the 20 percent of
Iran: Ancient Rivalries, New Realities
September 16, 2021: The safety of Afghan Shia, now that the Taliban are back in control of Afghanistan, has become a major issue in Iran. The new Taliban government, now more openly controlled by Pakistan, is not seen as an improvement by most Iranians or the 20 percent of Afghans that are Shia. Many of those Afghans served as Iranian mercenaries in Syria and some are still there because they are the best, and most expensive, mercs. The new hardline Iranian government regards “defending all Shia” as one of its core functions. Doing that in Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nations that have been notorious for persistent anti-Shia violence, is going to be difficult. So far the Taliban have not gone after Afghan Shia, but Iran knows that could change quickly. The centuries old Sunni animosity towards Shia remains. As in the past, Iran will try to get what it can from the Taliban while remembering that many Taliban factions and individuals see tolerance for Shia as bad for Afghanistan.
The Quds Force commander was recently called to address Iran’s parliament about this and admitted that there were no assurances that the attacks on Shia would not resume. Pakistan sees Iranian influence in Afghanistan as a threat. Not just because of the Shia security thing, but also because Iran has, for years, been supporting anti-Pakistan Taliban factions. These are almost all Sunni and the Quds Force sees them as valuable assets. All this has been a factor in western Afghanistan politics for centuries. That is why one of the “national” languages of Afghanistan is Dari, a variant of Farsi. This is still called Persian by many because it is the main language in Iran. Currently Iran is broke and there is growing popular unrest against the religious dictatorship that has run the country since the 1980s. While the supplies of cash and weapons have largely disappeared, some Taliban factions still maintain bases in eastern Iran and have access to local medical facilities and markets.
Then there is the ancient rivalry between Persians and Indians over who gets what inside Afghanistan. The economic basis of that rivalry was control over portions of the Silk Road trade routes between China and points West. The Silk Road was replaced by more efficient European ships, and their firepower, centuries ago. In the 21st century China is reviving the Silk Road as an overland and maritime network through nations friendly towards trade with and investments from China. Iran and India see this as a threat while Pakistan sees it as an economic lifeline as well as an obligation to do what China wants. In Afghanistan China is willing to do business with whoever can provide a safe environment for Chinese investments and trade. There are doubts that anyone can do that and China is waiting to see what Iran and Pakistan can do about it. India and Russia are also cautious about doing business in Afghanistan. Because of the Pakistani control over the Taliban, India is now banned from Afghanistan but still has valuable trade relationships with Iran that Iran does not want to lose. China and India are currently archenemies of each other. Finally, there are the Afghan-based drug cartels that supply most of the heroin to the entire planet. While universally hated throughout the region, cartel money is a major source of income for the Taliban and the Pakistan military, which is currently running the government in Pakistan.
Iran still has major, and expensive, problems in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. All these efforts are managed by the Quds Force as part of the ongoing war against Israel and Saudi Arabia. None of these conflicts are doing well for Iran. The most damage to Iran is occurring in Syria. The core problem is that if Sunni Islamic terrorists remain in northwest Syria (Idlib province), while ISIL is active in eastern Syria and Iranians near the Israeli border, the Syrian civil war will not be over. Iran needs that civil war to end so they can concentrate on Israel. So far no one, not even Iranian allies, are cooperating. The only ones who cannot walk away from this are the Syrian Assad government, Turkey and Israel. Syria has been at war with Israel from the beginning when modern Syria was created in 1946 and Israel in 1948. Israel would like to make peace with Syria but will settle for a quiet border. Russia depicts itself as an old (since the 1950s) Syrian ally and interested only in peace and prosperity for Syria. That leaves Iran as the real interloper and troublemaker. Dealing with Iran has been a headache for Turkey and Russia for centuries while the Arabs have several thousand years of bad memories created by Iran. In other words, Iran is difficult to deal with, something everyone can agree on. That is a common problem, not an incentive to violently gang up on Iran. Yet there is an unofficial anti-Iran coalition in Syria, with Israel, Russia, Turkey and the Assad Syrian government as active members. Israel is doing most of the fighting and hurting Iran in a major way. Russia, Turkey and Syria sympathize with Iran but do little beyond that and Iran does not like this sort of thing because it is straight out of the ancient Iranian playbook. The Syrian mess makes Iran, and especially Quds Force, look bad to Iranian minions in Iraq (Shia radicals on the Iranian payroll), Yemen (more Shia rebels), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas). Technically Iran also has minions in Afghanistan where the local Shia and anti-Pakistan groups appreciate the help but were never very good at the obedient minion thing. Quds Force recently admitted as much in parliament where it was made clear that Quds could issue orders to the minions but, in Afghanistan, negotiations were also necessary.
A typical loyal minion response was seen recently in Gaza where renewed violence against Israel was no surprise because in August Iran-backed Hamas told Egypt, the mediator of ceasefire talks with Israel, that peace with Israel was no longer possible and another offensive will soon begin. Hamas is trying to get some sympathy and outside access from Egypt. That has not worked since Iran is at war with Egypt because it is an ally of Saudi Arabia. Hamas had demanded free access to the outside world and that means the ability to bring in dual-use materials that can be used for military purposes. Turkey is currently in negotiations with Egypt to revive diplomatic and economic relations and is willing to abandon support for the Moslem Brotherhood and Iran to make Egypt and other Arab states partners once more.
Lebanon Endgame
In Lebanon, Iran is trying to revive Hezbollah power by sending several illegal oil shipments to Syria rather than Lebanon because Syria is already under sanctions and Lebanon is not, at least not yet. Iran hopes to change that, in order to make Lebanon easier to control because Hezbollah already controls many of the black market and outlaw enterprises in Lebanon. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon since the 1980s when they provided the cash and military assistance to form Hezbollah. This was don’t to protect the Shia minority in Lebanon. Where the Shia were one of the many factions participating in a civil war that had been going on since 1975 and Iranian interference led to a negotiated end to the civil war. This involved Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states, cooperating with Iran. This settlement came with a catch that meant the civil war had not ended but just paused while Iran expanded Hezbollah power via cash and weapons. Hezbollah soon became a state within a state by controlling large portions of southern Lebanon and acquiring veto power over the elected Lebanese government. Iran also acquired Syria as an ally in the 1980s and got away with having Syrian troops part of the peacekeeper force that occupied much of Lebanon to prevent the civil war from restarting. Most Lebanese saw the Syrian troops as an occupation force that was there to protect black market and drug smuggling operations that enriched Hezbollah and Syria at the expense of most Lebanese. Over the decades the Lebanese government sought to reduce the Iranian influence and illegal Hezbollah control of the south. Iran helped Hezbollah exploit the complex and often corrupt factional politics of Lebanon, which had a population where no one was a majority. Christians were the majority after World War II but that changed as Palestinians moved in as refugees and formed armed militias that became a threat to Lebanese as well as Israel, which until the last decade was generally considered the enemy by most Moslems in the region. That began to change in the 21st century when more and more Arab states realized that Israel was more valuable as an ally than the target of violence that always ended up hurting the Arab attackers much more than the Israeli defenders. The Israelis were also the most effective nation in the region against the growing Iranian threat. Iran and Hezbollah are seen as the cause, and chief beneficiary of the recent collapse of the Lebanese economy and continued political chaos. The non-Shia majority in Lebanon realize that the fuel shipments to Lebanon are not “free” but do fill an immediate need because the Lebanese currency is worthless and the economy unable to function. With control of the black market for fuel, Hezbollah and Iran can expand their power, as they did in Syria until 2011 when the non-Shia majority rebelled.
For the moment Iran cannot call on Hezbollah to carry out any sort of major military operation against Israel. First, Hezbollah must deal with local problems because most Lebanese want Hezbollah gone and getting Lebanon involved in another war with Israel might see Hezbollah fighting Israel and Lebanese at the same time. Iran wants to destroy one enemy at a time. Iran hopes a major war with Israel will result in more popular support from all Moslems in the region. That’s more of a gamble than a sure thing as Iran has replaced Israel as the designated “enemy”.
Nuclear News
The new Iranian government has made it clear that it wants all sanctions lifted before any serious (and probably unsuccessful) negotiations over ending the Iranian nuclear weapons program can take place. China does not see Iranian nukes as a problem because Iran understands that China has no qualms about using extreme (even nuclear) violence against any threats from a nuclear armed Iran. China is telling Iran that China can be their best friend or worst enemy. So far Iran is playing nice towards China because that makes it easier to pressure European countries into lifting sanctions despite Iran continuing with its nuclear problem. The Americans are still a problem but are not beyond some creative deception and intimidation.
What Really Matters News
Economic conditions for most Iranians continue to get worse. Last month the (12-month average) inflation rate hit 45 percent and is a little worse in rural areas, where most of the religious dictatorship supporters live. The American trade and financial sanctions mean there are a lot fewer dollars in Iran and these are essential to pay for imports. The Iranian currency has been at record lows versus the U.S. dollar. Currently it costs about 278,000 rials to buy one U.S. dollar. A year ago it hit a record 317,000 rials per dollar. This catastrophic weakening of the rial began in 2017 when the U.S. revived economic sanctions. By August 2019 it cost 120,000 rials to buy a dollar. Back in 2015 a dollar could be had for 32,000 rials. The current foreign exchange crisis is partly due to exporters of non-oil goods keeping about half the money they receive outside the country. That is a good business decision because that money is safer from government corruption if it is kept in foreign banks. These sanctions plus the covid19 shutdowns shrank the economy (GDP) by nearly ten percent in 2020. GDP has been tanking since sanctions were revived in 2017. Inflation was 30 percent a year ago and getting worse. The unemployment rate is twelve percent but the underemployment rate, because of firms shut down by quarantines, is much higher. Over half the population is visibly living below the poverty line. For more than a year a growing number of senior officials expressed fear this will spark another round of violent anti-government protests. Even government-controlled media is openly discussing this prospect. Surrender is not an option for the religious dictatorship, which encouraged retired IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) generals to run for parliament and the presidency. This worked and the 2021 elections created a very pro-dictatorship parliament and president. While parliamentary decisions are subject to veto by the senior clerics in the Guardians Council, such vetoes always cause more popular opposition to the government. With more IRGC men in parliament it is now possible to block embarrassing new laws before they are passed and must be vetoed.
'Dealing with Iran has been a headache for Turkey and Russia for centuries while the Arabs have several thousand years of bad memories created by Iran. '
(and Rome too)
why tf are we even in this awful, god forsaken part of the world ... only b/c the damn oil.
"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world."
Washington's FAREWELL ADDRESS TO THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1796
good policy then , good policy now.
rmomaha
The Wise Man Prepares
Iran denounces ‘unilateralism’ as it becomes full SCO member
Iran denounces ‘unilateralism’ as it becomes full SCO member
President Ebrahim Raisi sends message of regional multilateralism as Iran fully joins the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
![Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021-09-17T131130Z_18962979_RC2PRP9EVDNI_RTRMADP_3_TAJIKISTAN-SUMMIT-IRAN.jpg?resize=770%2C513 "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]")
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]
By Maziar Motamedi
17 Sep 2021
Tehran, Iran – President Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran wants closer ties with its regional neighbours and rejected the United States’s “unilateralism”, as his country became a full member of the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Iran said on Friday it had been accepted as the eighth full member of the organisation during its annual conference in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. Senior officials from other full member states – namely China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan – were in attendance.
Iran had held observer status for the past 15 years. It expects the full membership to help it boost its economy and regional standing.
In a speech to the summit, newly elected Raisi predominantly emphasised his main stated foreign policy goal, which is to expand political, economic and cultural ties with countries across the region and protect Iran from unilateral punishments from the West.
Summit participants listen as Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech via a video link [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]
He said Iran’s geopolitical position, population, energy supplies, transport potential, workforce and culture can provide “meaningful momentum” to major regional masterplans, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“The world has entered a new era,” Raisi said. “Hegemony and unilateralism are failing. The international balance is moving toward multilateralism and redistribution of power to the benefit of independent countries.”
In this vein, the Iranian president referred to “sanctions or economic terrorism” as major hurdles for regional progress, and called on the SCO member states to develop structures and mechanisms to fight sanctions as a group.
“Unilateral sanctions are not against only one country,” he said. “As it has become evident in recent years, sanctions have targeted more independent countries, especially members of the organisation.”
Play Video
Iran has been under harsh US sanctions since 2018, when former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from a 2015 nuclear deal signed between Iran and world powers.
On the nuclear deal, Raisi said he viewed diplomacy as a tool to secure national interests. But he said it was only effective when all countries abided by it.
“Unfortunately, some countries believe they can turn diplomacy to their benefit through using tools of threats and pressure,” he said in another veiled message to the US as Iran and other nuclear deal signatories are expected to head back to Vienna soon to resume talks on restoring the accord.
The president said nothing can stop Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear activities, days after European powers again called on Iran to scale back its nuclear programme at the end of the latest conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Play Video
Raisi also listed the COVID-19 pandemic, terrorism, environment, cyber security and organised crime as other challenges facing the SCO members that can be tackled in unison.
The Iranian president, who touched down in Dushanbe on Thursday, held a string of high-level talks with his SCO peers, including bilateral meetings with several heads of state, and a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan.
Raisi was also slated to meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in person, but the two agreed to set a meeting in the foreseeable future after the latter had to quarantine after people in his inner circle tested positive for coronavirus.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
Iran denounces ‘unilateralism’ as it becomes full SCO member
President Ebrahim Raisi sends message of regional multilateralism as Iran fully joins the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]
By Maziar Motamedi
17 Sep 2021
Tehran, Iran – President Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran wants closer ties with its regional neighbours and rejected the United States’s “unilateralism”, as his country became a full member of the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Iran said on Friday it had been accepted as the eighth full member of the organisation during its annual conference in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. Senior officials from other full member states – namely China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan – were in attendance.
Iran had held observer status for the past 15 years. It expects the full membership to help it boost its economy and regional standing.
In a speech to the summit, newly elected Raisi predominantly emphasised his main stated foreign policy goal, which is to expand political, economic and cultural ties with countries across the region and protect Iran from unilateral punishments from the West.
He said Iran’s geopolitical position, population, energy supplies, transport potential, workforce and culture can provide “meaningful momentum” to major regional masterplans, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“The world has entered a new era,” Raisi said. “Hegemony and unilateralism are failing. The international balance is moving toward multilateralism and redistribution of power to the benefit of independent countries.”
In this vein, the Iranian president referred to “sanctions or economic terrorism” as major hurdles for regional progress, and called on the SCO member states to develop structures and mechanisms to fight sanctions as a group.
“Unilateral sanctions are not against only one country,” he said. “As it has become evident in recent years, sanctions have targeted more independent countries, especially members of the organisation.”
Play Video
Iran has been under harsh US sanctions since 2018, when former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from a 2015 nuclear deal signed between Iran and world powers.
On the nuclear deal, Raisi said he viewed diplomacy as a tool to secure national interests. But he said it was only effective when all countries abided by it.
“Unfortunately, some countries believe they can turn diplomacy to their benefit through using tools of threats and pressure,” he said in another veiled message to the US as Iran and other nuclear deal signatories are expected to head back to Vienna soon to resume talks on restoring the accord.
The president said nothing can stop Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear activities, days after European powers again called on Iran to scale back its nuclear programme at the end of the latest conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Play Video
Raisi also listed the COVID-19 pandemic, terrorism, environment, cyber security and organised crime as other challenges facing the SCO members that can be tackled in unison.
The Iranian president, who touched down in Dushanbe on Thursday, held a string of high-level talks with his SCO peers, including bilateral meetings with several heads of state, and a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan.
Raisi was also slated to meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in person, but the two agreed to set a meeting in the foreseeable future after the latter had to quarantine after people in his inner circle tested positive for coronavirus.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Iran joins expanding Asian security body led by Moscow, Beijing
Reuters
September 17, 20215:40 AM PDT
Last Updated 4 days ago
September 17 2021 (Reuters) - Iran joined a rapidly expanding central Asian security body led by Russia and China on Friday, calling on the countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to help it form a mechanism to avert sanctions imposed by the West.
The body, formed in the 2001 as a talking shop for Russia, China and ex-Soviet states in Central Asia, expanded four years ago to include India and Pakistan, with a view to playing a bigger role as counterweight to Western influence in the region.
In a sign of its growing influence, the body's summit in Tajikistan was the first appearance abroad of Iran's new hardline president, Ebrahimi Raisi, since taking office in August.
Raisi hailed the opportunity that membership would provide for Iran, as a country along China's "Belt and Road" route, to join important trade links across Eurasia. Iranian television described Iran's membership as giving it access to huge markets across the continent.
In his speech to members, Raisi compared sanctions on Iran to terrorism, and said the organisation should design a mechanism that helps Tehran avert them.
Russia and China, along with Western countries, are parties of a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers under which Tehran agreed to curbs on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions.
Washington abandoned that deal in 2018 and unilaterally reimposed financial sanctions. Negotiations this year to revive it have been stalled since Raisi's election.
"Nothing can stop Iran's peaceful nuclear activities that are within the framework of international regulations," Raisi said. "Diplomacy is only effective when all parties adhere to it. Threats and pressure tie diplomacy’s hands and render it ineffective."
Iran joins expanding Asian security body led by Moscow, Beijing | Reuters
Reuters
September 17, 20215:40 AM PDT
Last Updated 4 days ago
September 17 2021 (Reuters) - Iran joined a rapidly expanding central Asian security body led by Russia and China on Friday, calling on the countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to help it form a mechanism to avert sanctions imposed by the West.
The body, formed in the 2001 as a talking shop for Russia, China and ex-Soviet states in Central Asia, expanded four years ago to include India and Pakistan, with a view to playing a bigger role as counterweight to Western influence in the region.
In a sign of its growing influence, the body's summit in Tajikistan was the first appearance abroad of Iran's new hardline president, Ebrahimi Raisi, since taking office in August.
Raisi hailed the opportunity that membership would provide for Iran, as a country along China's "Belt and Road" route, to join important trade links across Eurasia. Iranian television described Iran's membership as giving it access to huge markets across the continent.
In his speech to members, Raisi compared sanctions on Iran to terrorism, and said the organisation should design a mechanism that helps Tehran avert them.
Russia and China, along with Western countries, are parties of a 2015 agreement between Iran and world powers under which Tehran agreed to curbs on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions.
Washington abandoned that deal in 2018 and unilaterally reimposed financial sanctions. Negotiations this year to revive it have been stalled since Raisi's election.
"Nothing can stop Iran's peaceful nuclear activities that are within the framework of international regulations," Raisi said. "Diplomacy is only effective when all parties adhere to it. Threats and pressure tie diplomacy’s hands and render it ineffective."
Iran joins expanding Asian security body led by Moscow, Beijing | Reuters
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Good catch, this is a big storyIran denounces ‘unilateralism’ as it becomes full SCO member
Iran denounces ‘unilateralism’ as it becomes full SCO member
President Ebrahim Raisi sends message of regional multilateralism as Iran fully joins the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]
By Maziar Motamedi
17 Sep 2021
Tehran, Iran – President Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran wants closer ties with its regional neighbours and rejected the United States’s “unilateralism”, as his country became a full member of the influential Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Iran said on Friday it had been accepted as the eighth full member of the organisation during its annual conference in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe. Senior officials from other full member states – namely China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan – were in attendance.
Iran had held observer status for the past 15 years. It expects the full membership to help it boost its economy and regional standing.
In a speech to the summit, newly elected Raisi predominantly emphasised his main stated foreign policy goal, which is to expand political, economic and cultural ties with countries across the region and protect Iran from unilateral punishments from the West.
Summit participants listen as Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech via a video link [Didor Sadulloev/Reuters]
He said Iran’s geopolitical position, population, energy supplies, transport potential, workforce and culture can provide “meaningful momentum” to major regional masterplans, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
“The world has entered a new era,” Raisi said. “Hegemony and unilateralism are failing. The international balance is moving toward multilateralism and redistribution of power to the benefit of independent countries.”
In this vein, the Iranian president referred to “sanctions or economic terrorism” as major hurdles for regional progress, and called on the SCO member states to develop structures and mechanisms to fight sanctions as a group.
“Unilateral sanctions are not against only one country,” he said. “As it has become evident in recent years, sanctions have targeted more independent countries, especially members of the organisation.”
Play Video
Iran has been under harsh US sanctions since 2018, when former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from a 2015 nuclear deal signed between Iran and world powers.
On the nuclear deal, Raisi said he viewed diplomacy as a tool to secure national interests. But he said it was only effective when all countries abided by it.
“Unfortunately, some countries believe they can turn diplomacy to their benefit through using tools of threats and pressure,” he said in another veiled message to the US as Iran and other nuclear deal signatories are expected to head back to Vienna soon to resume talks on restoring the accord.
The president said nothing can stop Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear activities, days after European powers again called on Iran to scale back its nuclear programme at the end of the latest conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Play Video
Raisi also listed the COVID-19 pandemic, terrorism, environment, cyber security and organised crime as other challenges facing the SCO members that can be tackled in unison.
The Iranian president, who touched down in Dushanbe on Thursday, held a string of high-level talks with his SCO peers, including bilateral meetings with several heads of state, and a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan.
Raisi was also slated to meet Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in person, but the two agreed to set a meeting in the foreseeable future after the latter had to quarantine after people in his inner circle tested positive for coronavirus.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
rmomaha
The Wise Man Prepares
Yes it is. We know what's coming, don't we? It's all spelled out in the Book.
jward
passin' thru
Newsmax
@newsmax
Democratic lawmakers on Tuesday removed $1 billion in military funding for Israel from legislation to fund the U.S. government after objections from House of Representatives liberals, setting the stage for a potential fight over the matter later this year.
View: https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1440423112567242755?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
40s
"if you read what they say publicly, what the press says, there's every reason to expect that this team is not going to accept the framework, the outlines of the deal that we were negotiating before June 20," said the U.S. official. #Iran
https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1440428028908036102?s=20
@JasonMBrodsky
40s
"if you read what they say publicly, what the press says, there's every reason to expect that this team is not going to accept the framework, the outlines of the deal that we were negotiating before June 20," said the U.S. official. #Iran
https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1440428028908036102?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
Biden: “We are prepared to return to full compliance” with the JCPOA if #Iran does the same
View: https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1440390048881397765?s=20
_________________________________
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
3h
Iran wants resumption of nuclear talks that leads to lifting U.S. sanctions -Raisi
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1440386384187953152?s=20
jward
passin' thru
3 American combat units to leave Iraq by end of September: Military official
Tuesday, 21 September 2021 5:30 PM [ Last Update: Tuesday, 21 September 2021 5:30 PM ]
US soldiers stand at a site of Iranian bombing at the Ain al-Assad Airbase in the western Iraqi province of al-Anbar, Iraq, on January 13, 2020. (AP Photo)
An Iraqi military official says three American combat units are expected to leave major Iraqi military bases that host the United States’ forces in the Arab country, by the end of this month.
The Iraqi Joint Operations Command’s spokesman, Major General Tahsin al-Khafaji made the remarks to Russia’s Sputnik news agency on Tuesday.
He identified the bases in question as the Ain al-Assad Airbase in the western Iraqi province of al-Anbar and al-Harir, another airbase located in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq.
Khafaji said strategic negotiations that had taken place between Baghdad and Washington on the withdrawal of the American troops had played an instrumental role in the agreement that has mandated the forces’ pullout.
“The forces’ withdrawal will take place on the basis of the timetable that has been prepared,” the official noted.
‘All US troops scheduled to leave’
Iraq was no longer in need of any foreign military forces, he said, and announced that “the rest of the [American] units also had to leave by September 31, 2022.”
“Those too will leave Iraq based on the timetable that has been determined,” said the spokesman.
In January, the Iraqi parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a law mandating the departure of all foreign forces from the country’s soil.
The vote came after a drone strike, ordered by former US president Donald Trump in Baghdad led to the martyrdom of senior Iranian and Iraqi anti-terror commanders, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, alongside their companions.
Nujaba reacts to pullout deal: Entire US military, including ‘criminal’ air force, must leave Iraq
Iraq’s al-Nujaba resistance movement says the planned withdrawal under the newly-inked agreement between Baghdad and Washington must include the US military’s “criminal” air force.
The commanders had played an indispensable role in the defeat of the Takfiri terrorist group that the US has been using as an excuse to prolong its occupation of Iraq.
Soon after the attack, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched volleys of ballistic missiles against the very military outposts, which the American forces are now scheduled to depart.
Iraqi resistance groups also markedly ramped up their attacks on the US’s interests in Iraq after the attacks to mount pressure on Washington to end the illegal presence.
Posted For Fair use
www.presstv.ir
Tuesday, 21 September 2021 5:30 PM [ Last Update: Tuesday, 21 September 2021 5:30 PM ]
US soldiers stand at a site of Iranian bombing at the Ain al-Assad Airbase in the western Iraqi province of al-Anbar, Iraq, on January 13, 2020. (AP Photo)
An Iraqi military official says three American combat units are expected to leave major Iraqi military bases that host the United States’ forces in the Arab country, by the end of this month.
The Iraqi Joint Operations Command’s spokesman, Major General Tahsin al-Khafaji made the remarks to Russia’s Sputnik news agency on Tuesday.
He identified the bases in question as the Ain al-Assad Airbase in the western Iraqi province of al-Anbar and al-Harir, another airbase located in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq.
Khafaji said strategic negotiations that had taken place between Baghdad and Washington on the withdrawal of the American troops had played an instrumental role in the agreement that has mandated the forces’ pullout.
“The forces’ withdrawal will take place on the basis of the timetable that has been prepared,” the official noted.
‘All US troops scheduled to leave’
Iraq was no longer in need of any foreign military forces, he said, and announced that “the rest of the [American] units also had to leave by September 31, 2022.”
“Those too will leave Iraq based on the timetable that has been determined,” said the spokesman.
In January, the Iraqi parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a law mandating the departure of all foreign forces from the country’s soil.
The vote came after a drone strike, ordered by former US president Donald Trump in Baghdad led to the martyrdom of senior Iranian and Iraqi anti-terror commanders, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, alongside their companions.
Nujaba reacts to pullout deal: Entire US military, including ‘criminal’ air force, must leave Iraq
Iraq’s al-Nujaba resistance movement says the planned withdrawal under the newly-inked agreement between Baghdad and Washington must include the US military’s “criminal” air force.
The commanders had played an indispensable role in the defeat of the Takfiri terrorist group that the US has been using as an excuse to prolong its occupation of Iraq.
Soon after the attack, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched volleys of ballistic missiles against the very military outposts, which the American forces are now scheduled to depart.
Iraqi resistance groups also markedly ramped up their attacks on the US’s interests in Iraq after the attacks to mount pressure on Washington to end the illegal presence.
Posted For Fair use
3 American combat units to leave Iraq by end of September: Military official
Iraqi military official says three American combat units are expected to leave the Arab country by the end of this month.
www.presstv.ir
jward
passin' thru
Mike
@Doranimated
Would you like Israel to develop its defense technologies with us or with China and Russia? Those are your choices.
View: https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1440471073888210947?s=20
@Doranimated
Would you like Israel to develop its defense technologies with us or with China and Russia? Those are your choices.
View: https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1440471073888210947?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
#BREAKING:
@BarakRavid reports that the U.S. and #Israel held secret talks on #Iran last week to discuss a possible “plan B” if nuclear talks are not resumed. 1/2 https://axios.com/newsletters/axios-tel-aviv-b13c673f-1957-4767-b16c-f4fcfc7aec38.html?chunk=1&utm_term=twsocialshare#story1
#axiosfromtelaviv
The U.S. side stressed that it was also concerned about the stalemate and said the U.S. would impose additional sanctions on #Iran if talks don't resume soon, an Israeli official says. 2/2
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1440702511036256266?s=20
jward
passin' thru
More "unexplained" boom-boom outbreaks in Iran 
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
Video circulating showing what looks to be an explosion in Shiraz, #Iran. Some Iranian outlets have started reporting on it. Unclear as to cause. https://etemadonline.com/content/515204
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1441059522362155008?s=20
Mehdi H.
@mhmiranusa
They say it was an unlicensed LPG filling station.
View: https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1441066552506388481?s=20
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
Video circulating showing what looks to be an explosion in Shiraz, #Iran. Some Iranian outlets have started reporting on it. Unclear as to cause. https://etemadonline.com/content/515204
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1441059522362155008?s=20
Mehdi H.
@mhmiranusa
They say it was an unlicensed LPG filling station.
View: https://twitter.com/mhmiranusa/status/1441066552506388481?s=20
jward
passin' thru
File it under the "this would almost be funny" category, i guess. 
Kian Sharifi
@KianSharifi
The deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, claimed on live TV last night that quantum physics "originated" in Iran but for unspecified reasons "we can't announce it".
View: https://twitter.com/KianSharifi/status/1441338261675204609?s=20
Kian Sharifi
@KianSharifi
The deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, claimed on live TV last night that quantum physics "originated" in Iran but for unspecified reasons "we can't announce it".
View: https://twitter.com/KianSharifi/status/1441338261675204609?s=20
File it under the "this would almost be funny" category, i guess.
Kian Sharifi
@KianSharifi
The deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, claimed on live TV last night that quantum physics "originated" in Iran but for unspecified reasons "we can't announce it".
View: https://twitter.com/KianSharifi/status/1441338261675204609?s=20
You really can't make this stuff up......
Posted for fair use.....
www.nytimes.com
Rebuking Biden, Iran’s Chief Diplomat Demands More Sanctions Relief
The foreign minister for Iran’s new hard-line government said it would demand a higher price for limiting its nuclear program than it did in the 2015 deal.
By David E. Sanger, Michael Crowley and Rick Gladstone
Sept. 24, 2021
Accusing President Biden of continuing “the thick file of the Trump sanctions against Iran,’’ the new, hard-line Iranian foreign minister said on Friday that in return for agreeing to limits on its nuclear program, his country would demand far more sanctions relief than it received under the 2015 nuclear deal.
In two lengthy interviews with journalists during the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, his first as Iran’s top diplomat, Hossain Amirabdollahian said that Iran would return “very soon” to negotiations in Vienna. But Tehran, he said, had received “contradictory messages” from Washington about restoring the agreement jettisoned by Donald J. Trump more than three years ago.
The foreign minister represents a new government that is more closely tied to the military and openly antagonistic to the West than its predecessor, and his repeated insistence on gaining more benefits in return for returning to the deal points to a looming impasse with the United States.
American officials have said that if Iran wants to see other sanctions lifted, it must be prepared for what Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has described as a “longer and stronger” accord than the original, which runs through 2030 — one that would significantly extend the time period when Iran would not be permitted to hold more than a token amount of nuclear fuel.
“We will not have a so-called ‘longer and stronger’ deal,” Mr. Amirabdollahian told The New York Times in an interview on Thursday night at his hotel opposite the United Nations headquarters. The 2015 accord “has a lot of harsh critics in Iran,” he said, “but we accepted it.”
American officials said they were not surprised by Mr. Amirabdollahian’s position. While they did not meet the new foreign minister — Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has banned direct contact — they said he had made similar statements to European leaders over the past five days.
U.S. officials have been expecting that the hard-liners in Iran’s new government would try to raise the price for returning to the accord that Mr. Trump pulled out of in 2018. To gain leverage, over the past two years Iran has resumed its production of uranium and now has a stockpile of fuel far in excess of the limits of the 2015 accord. Earlier this week, Britain’s foreign office declared that “Iran has never been this close to having the ability to develop nuclear weapons.”
Experts estimate that Iran could produce bomb-grade uranium in a month or two, but that it would take 18 months or more to fashion it into a working weapon — plenty of time for the United States, Israel and others to respond. But with each passing month, Iran has expanded its stockpile, and its knowledge, about how to enrich uranium, at scale, to a level that would make it a so-called threshold nuclear power — on the verge of possessing a nuclear weapon, but not quite over that line.
Mr. Amirabdollahian’s rejection of any tougher or extended nuclear agreement appeared to signal that Iran intends to preserve the time frame of the 2015 agreement, with restrictions on the amount of nuclear fuel it can produce largely expiring in 2030. There is increasing concern in the West that a duration that seemed long enough in 2015 looks disturbingly short in 2021.
The new minister portrayed his view of dealing with the United States as dramatically different from that of his urbane, American-educated predecessor, Mohammad Javad Zarif, saying the previous government had spent far too much energy negotiating lengthy, detailed agreements with the United States.
“The standard for us,” said Mr. Amirabdollahian, “will be one to watch the action of U.S. officials and judge based on actions taken by President Biden,” rather than on Mr. Biden’s “paradoxical statements.”
He suggested that the Iran deal went off the rails long before Mr. Trump took office. He argued that President Barack Obama had worked, even after the accord was reached, to keep Iran from reaping the benefits of sanctions relief.
“It’s important to note that the violations began under Obama, and then President Trump,” he said, contending that banks and energy companies pulled back from signing deals even when the agreement was in place.
He is partly right: Many companies feared the rules would change again after the 2016 presidential election. That fear proved warranted, as Mr. Trump rescinded the deal and imposed new sanctions.
The same could happen again, Mr. Amirabdollahian said, so Iran is learning how to live in a world of sanctions. “We will not tie the fate of our nation to the J.C.P.O.A.,” he said, using the formal name for the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“We will return to the negotiations and will do so very quickly,” he told The Times. “But if our counterparts don’t change their behavior we may not reach the required result.”
At a daily news briefing, the State Department spokesman, Ned Price, sounded skeptical about Iranian talk of resumed negotiations.
“You’ll need to ask them on the meaning of ‘soon’ and ‘very soon,’” Mr. Price said. “That is a message we’ve heard all week, but we have up until this point not received clarity on what precisely that means.”
Inside the White House and the State Department, there is now an expectation that the talks could spill into next year, and could collapse entirely. Speaking at a news conference on Thursday as he wrapped up a week of diplomacy at the annual United Nations gathering, Mr. Blinken warned Iran, as he has repeatedly in recent weeks, that time was running out for a relatively simple return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Uranium enrichment uses centrifuges to separate the common form of the element from the much rarer and more radioactive isotope that can create a nuclear explosion. It becomes usable in a weapon when about 90 percent or more is the more potent form. Under the 2015 agreement, Iran was limited to enrichment to less than 4 percent, enough to fuel a nuclear power plant.
Mr. Blinken said that “with every passing day, as Iran continues to take actions that are not in compliance with the agreement — particularly building larger stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to 20 percent, even to 60 percent, and spinning faster centrifuges” its nuclear program makes progress toward a point beyond which it cannot easily be reversed.
Mr. Blinken and other Biden administration officials have repeatedly declined to say how much time remains, or what specific metrics they might use to assess that the 2015 framework cannot be salvaged.
He and the State Department’s envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, consulted with allies on the matter in New York this week, but departed with no specific date for a return to talks in Vienna. The difficulty of their task was underscored by a fiery address to the United Nations on Tuesday by Iran’s new President, Ebrahim Raisi, who condemned the United States as an international bully.
In two conversations — one on Thursday night with New York Times journalists and another on Friday morning with a wider group of American reporters — Mr. Amirabdollahian declined several opportunities to explain why Iran was now, for the first time, producing nuclear fuel that is close to bomb-grade. His aides said that the production of the fuel at 60 percent purity was largely a political statement, a sign that Iran planned to exercise all of its rights as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty — which permits it to produce the fuel, but bars it from taking the last steps to turn it into a weapon.
But they noted that highly enriched uranium could be used in naval reactors, suggesting they might want to use it for that purpose. And they cited Mr. Biden’s new deal with Australia, which calls for the U.S. and Britain to supply Australia with the technology for nuclear-propelled submarines, which use highly enriched uranium. Australia is not considered a proliferation threat, but to the Iranians this is largely proof of a double standard.
Mr. Amirabdollahian did offer one rare example of harmony with American diplomacy, calling on Afghanistan’s new Taliban government to protect the rights of religious and ethnic groups. Iran’s Shia-led government has sought to protect Afghanistan’s Shiite Hazara minority, which suffered massacres at the hands of the Taliban when the Sunni militant group last governed Afghanistan.
“We firmly believe the only solution is the formation of an inclusive government, in order to push forward,” Mr. Amirabdollahian said of Afghanistan. “We have been in contact with all sides.”
David E. Sanger is a White House and national security correspondent. In a 38-year reporting career for The Times, he has been on three teams that have won Pulitzer Prizes, most recently in 2017 for international reporting. His newest book is “The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age.” @SangerNYT • Facebook
Michael Crowley is a diplomatic correspondent in the Washington bureau. He joined The Times in 2019 and was a White House correspondent for the last 18 months of the Trump administration. @michaelcrowley
Rick Gladstone is an editor and writer on the International Desk, based in New York. He has worked at The Times since 1997, starting as an editor in the Business section. @rickgladstone
Rebuking Biden, Iran’s Chief Diplomat Demands More Sanctions Relief
The foreign minister for Iran’s new hard-line government said it would demand a higher price for limiting its nuclear program than it did in the 2015 deal.
Rebuking Biden, Iran’s Chief Diplomat Demands More Sanctions Relief
The foreign minister for Iran’s new hard-line government said it would demand a higher price for limiting its nuclear program than it did in the 2015 deal.
By David E. Sanger, Michael Crowley and Rick Gladstone
Sept. 24, 2021
Accusing President Biden of continuing “the thick file of the Trump sanctions against Iran,’’ the new, hard-line Iranian foreign minister said on Friday that in return for agreeing to limits on its nuclear program, his country would demand far more sanctions relief than it received under the 2015 nuclear deal.
In two lengthy interviews with journalists during the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, his first as Iran’s top diplomat, Hossain Amirabdollahian said that Iran would return “very soon” to negotiations in Vienna. But Tehran, he said, had received “contradictory messages” from Washington about restoring the agreement jettisoned by Donald J. Trump more than three years ago.
The foreign minister represents a new government that is more closely tied to the military and openly antagonistic to the West than its predecessor, and his repeated insistence on gaining more benefits in return for returning to the deal points to a looming impasse with the United States.
American officials have said that if Iran wants to see other sanctions lifted, it must be prepared for what Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has described as a “longer and stronger” accord than the original, which runs through 2030 — one that would significantly extend the time period when Iran would not be permitted to hold more than a token amount of nuclear fuel.
“We will not have a so-called ‘longer and stronger’ deal,” Mr. Amirabdollahian told The New York Times in an interview on Thursday night at his hotel opposite the United Nations headquarters. The 2015 accord “has a lot of harsh critics in Iran,” he said, “but we accepted it.”
American officials said they were not surprised by Mr. Amirabdollahian’s position. While they did not meet the new foreign minister — Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has banned direct contact — they said he had made similar statements to European leaders over the past five days.
U.S. officials have been expecting that the hard-liners in Iran’s new government would try to raise the price for returning to the accord that Mr. Trump pulled out of in 2018. To gain leverage, over the past two years Iran has resumed its production of uranium and now has a stockpile of fuel far in excess of the limits of the 2015 accord. Earlier this week, Britain’s foreign office declared that “Iran has never been this close to having the ability to develop nuclear weapons.”
Experts estimate that Iran could produce bomb-grade uranium in a month or two, but that it would take 18 months or more to fashion it into a working weapon — plenty of time for the United States, Israel and others to respond. But with each passing month, Iran has expanded its stockpile, and its knowledge, about how to enrich uranium, at scale, to a level that would make it a so-called threshold nuclear power — on the verge of possessing a nuclear weapon, but not quite over that line.
Mr. Amirabdollahian’s rejection of any tougher or extended nuclear agreement appeared to signal that Iran intends to preserve the time frame of the 2015 agreement, with restrictions on the amount of nuclear fuel it can produce largely expiring in 2030. There is increasing concern in the West that a duration that seemed long enough in 2015 looks disturbingly short in 2021.
The new minister portrayed his view of dealing with the United States as dramatically different from that of his urbane, American-educated predecessor, Mohammad Javad Zarif, saying the previous government had spent far too much energy negotiating lengthy, detailed agreements with the United States.
“The standard for us,” said Mr. Amirabdollahian, “will be one to watch the action of U.S. officials and judge based on actions taken by President Biden,” rather than on Mr. Biden’s “paradoxical statements.”
He suggested that the Iran deal went off the rails long before Mr. Trump took office. He argued that President Barack Obama had worked, even after the accord was reached, to keep Iran from reaping the benefits of sanctions relief.
“It’s important to note that the violations began under Obama, and then President Trump,” he said, contending that banks and energy companies pulled back from signing deals even when the agreement was in place.
He is partly right: Many companies feared the rules would change again after the 2016 presidential election. That fear proved warranted, as Mr. Trump rescinded the deal and imposed new sanctions.
The same could happen again, Mr. Amirabdollahian said, so Iran is learning how to live in a world of sanctions. “We will not tie the fate of our nation to the J.C.P.O.A.,” he said, using the formal name for the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“We will return to the negotiations and will do so very quickly,” he told The Times. “But if our counterparts don’t change their behavior we may not reach the required result.”
At a daily news briefing, the State Department spokesman, Ned Price, sounded skeptical about Iranian talk of resumed negotiations.
“You’ll need to ask them on the meaning of ‘soon’ and ‘very soon,’” Mr. Price said. “That is a message we’ve heard all week, but we have up until this point not received clarity on what precisely that means.”
Inside the White House and the State Department, there is now an expectation that the talks could spill into next year, and could collapse entirely. Speaking at a news conference on Thursday as he wrapped up a week of diplomacy at the annual United Nations gathering, Mr. Blinken warned Iran, as he has repeatedly in recent weeks, that time was running out for a relatively simple return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Uranium enrichment uses centrifuges to separate the common form of the element from the much rarer and more radioactive isotope that can create a nuclear explosion. It becomes usable in a weapon when about 90 percent or more is the more potent form. Under the 2015 agreement, Iran was limited to enrichment to less than 4 percent, enough to fuel a nuclear power plant.
Mr. Blinken said that “with every passing day, as Iran continues to take actions that are not in compliance with the agreement — particularly building larger stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to 20 percent, even to 60 percent, and spinning faster centrifuges” its nuclear program makes progress toward a point beyond which it cannot easily be reversed.
Mr. Blinken and other Biden administration officials have repeatedly declined to say how much time remains, or what specific metrics they might use to assess that the 2015 framework cannot be salvaged.
He and the State Department’s envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, consulted with allies on the matter in New York this week, but departed with no specific date for a return to talks in Vienna. The difficulty of their task was underscored by a fiery address to the United Nations on Tuesday by Iran’s new President, Ebrahim Raisi, who condemned the United States as an international bully.
In two conversations — one on Thursday night with New York Times journalists and another on Friday morning with a wider group of American reporters — Mr. Amirabdollahian declined several opportunities to explain why Iran was now, for the first time, producing nuclear fuel that is close to bomb-grade. His aides said that the production of the fuel at 60 percent purity was largely a political statement, a sign that Iran planned to exercise all of its rights as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty — which permits it to produce the fuel, but bars it from taking the last steps to turn it into a weapon.
But they noted that highly enriched uranium could be used in naval reactors, suggesting they might want to use it for that purpose. And they cited Mr. Biden’s new deal with Australia, which calls for the U.S. and Britain to supply Australia with the technology for nuclear-propelled submarines, which use highly enriched uranium. Australia is not considered a proliferation threat, but to the Iranians this is largely proof of a double standard.
Mr. Amirabdollahian did offer one rare example of harmony with American diplomacy, calling on Afghanistan’s new Taliban government to protect the rights of religious and ethnic groups. Iran’s Shia-led government has sought to protect Afghanistan’s Shiite Hazara minority, which suffered massacres at the hands of the Taliban when the Sunni militant group last governed Afghanistan.
“We firmly believe the only solution is the formation of an inclusive government, in order to push forward,” Mr. Amirabdollahian said of Afghanistan. “We have been in contact with all sides.”
David E. Sanger is a White House and national security correspondent. In a 38-year reporting career for The Times, he has been on three teams that have won Pulitzer Prizes, most recently in 2017 for international reporting. His newest book is “The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age.” @SangerNYT • Facebook
Michael Crowley is a diplomatic correspondent in the Washington bureau. He joined The Times in 2019 and was a White House correspondent for the last 18 months of the Trump administration. @michaelcrowley
Rick Gladstone is an editor and writer on the International Desk, based in New York. He has worked at The Times since 1997, starting as an editor in the Business section. @rickgladstone
jward
passin' thru
Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی
@BabakTaghvaee
3m
#BREAKING: #Iran Army Ground Forces has started deploying their forces to the border with #Azerbaijan Republic. Today, a large number of T-72 & Chieftain main battle tanks of #IranianArmy were deployed to the areas adjacent to the Aras river at the borderline.
View: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1442205790681530369?s=20
@BabakTaghvaee
3m
#BREAKING: #Iran Army Ground Forces has started deploying their forces to the border with #Azerbaijan Republic. Today, a large number of T-72 & Chieftain main battle tanks of #IranianArmy were deployed to the areas adjacent to the Aras river at the borderline.
View: https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1442205790681530369?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
2 killed in mysterious fire in Tehran military research center yesterday, #Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirm; secretive site linked to missile and suicide drone projects,
@IntelliTimes
says >>>
5:42 AM · Sep 27, 2021·Twitter Web App
No comment from #Israel about fire in Iranian research facility, but here's a reminder:
View: https://twitter.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/1442439571996770308?s=20
jward
passin' thru
AFP News Agency
@AFP
1h
#BREAKING Iran's nuclear weapons program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM to UN General Assembly
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, accused Iran of breaching "all red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program (AFP/John Minchillo)
Mon, September 27, 2021, 8:31 AM·1 min read
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
In his first address to the United Nations General Assembly, Bennett claimed the Islamic republic had in recent years taken "a major leap forward" in its nuclear production capacity and ability to enrich weapons-grade uranium.
"Iran's nuclear weapon program is at a critical point, all red lines have been crossed," said Bennett, who took office in June.
"There are those in the world who seem to see Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons as an inevitable reality, as a done deal, or they have just become tired of hearing about it," the 49-year-old premier told the world body.
"Israel doesn't have that privilege. We cannot tire. We will not tire. Israel will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, said Friday that it expected talks to resume soon on reviving a 2015 landmark agreement scaling back its program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Bennett's predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in power from 2009 until June, was among the world's fiercest critics of the accord, regularly condemning it at international forums.
Bennett, a foreign policy hawk who heads an ideologically disparate, eight-party coalition government, also opposes the Iran nuclear deal, but did not mention it in his UN address.
bur-bs/mlm
news.yahoo.com
@AFP
1h
#BREAKING Iran's nuclear weapons program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM to UN General Assembly
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, accused Iran of breaching "all red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program (AFP/John Minchillo)
Mon, September 27, 2021, 8:31 AM·1 min read
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
In his first address to the United Nations General Assembly, Bennett claimed the Islamic republic had in recent years taken "a major leap forward" in its nuclear production capacity and ability to enrich weapons-grade uranium.
"Iran's nuclear weapon program is at a critical point, all red lines have been crossed," said Bennett, who took office in June.
"There are those in the world who seem to see Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons as an inevitable reality, as a done deal, or they have just become tired of hearing about it," the 49-year-old premier told the world body.
"Israel doesn't have that privilege. We cannot tire. We will not tire. Israel will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, said Friday that it expected talks to resume soon on reviving a 2015 landmark agreement scaling back its program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Bennett's predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in power from 2009 until June, was among the world's fiercest critics of the accord, regularly condemning it at international forums.
Bennett, a foreign policy hawk who heads an ideologically disparate, eight-party coalition government, also opposes the Iran nuclear deal, but did not mention it in his UN address.
bur-bs/mlm
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
AFP News Agency
@AFP
1h
#BREAKING Iran's nuclear weapons program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM to UN General Assembly
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, accused Iran of breaching "all red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program (AFP/John Minchillo)
Mon, September 27, 2021, 8:31 AM·1 min read
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
In his first address to the United Nations General Assembly, Bennett claimed the Islamic republic had in recent years taken "a major leap forward" in its nuclear production capacity and ability to enrich weapons-grade uranium.
"Iran's nuclear weapon program is at a critical point, all red lines have been crossed," said Bennett, who took office in June.
"There are those in the world who seem to see Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons as an inevitable reality, as a done deal, or they have just become tired of hearing about it," the 49-year-old premier told the world body.
"Israel doesn't have that privilege. We cannot tire. We will not tire. Israel will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, said Friday that it expected talks to resume soon on reviving a 2015 landmark agreement scaling back its program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Bennett's predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in power from 2009 until June, was among the world's fiercest critics of the accord, regularly condemning it at international forums.
Bennett, a foreign policy hawk who heads an ideologically disparate, eight-party coalition government, also opposes the Iran nuclear deal, but did not mention it in his UN address.
bur-bs/mlm
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
Merde............
John Deere Girl
Veteran Member
This will be an interesting week...AFP News Agency
@AFP
1h
#BREAKING Iran's nuclear weapons program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM to UN General Assembly
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, accused Iran of breaching "all red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program (AFP/John Minchillo)
Mon, September 27, 2021, 8:31 AM·1 min read
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
In his first address to the United Nations General Assembly, Bennett claimed the Islamic republic had in recent years taken "a major leap forward" in its nuclear production capacity and ability to enrich weapons-grade uranium.
"Iran's nuclear weapon program is at a critical point, all red lines have been crossed," said Bennett, who took office in June.
"There are those in the world who seem to see Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons as an inevitable reality, as a done deal, or they have just become tired of hearing about it," the 49-year-old premier told the world body.
"Israel doesn't have that privilege. We cannot tire. We will not tire. Israel will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon."
Iran, which says its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, said Friday that it expected talks to resume soon on reviving a 2015 landmark agreement scaling back its program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Bennett's predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in power from 2009 until June, was among the world's fiercest critics of the accord, regularly condemning it at international forums.
Bennett, a foreign policy hawk who heads an ideologically disparate, eight-party coalition government, also opposes the Iran nuclear deal, but did not mention it in his UN address.
bur-bs/mlm
Iran's nuclear program has crossed 'all red lines': Israel PM
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Monday that Iran had breached all the "red lines" aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons program but that Israel "will not allow" Tehran to get the bomb.
Yeah. That statement alone should make anyone paying attention start looking at the potential fallout patterns. If the Israelis, with or without the GCC/Saudis or the "West" go there, particularly by themselves, it won't be a love tap, it will be the whole kitchen sink.
Those reports of IDF pathfinders practicing in effect for a version of the Entebbe Raid posted up thread means either they're looking to seize, document and either confiscate or "scuttle" in place one or more Iranian sites or it's misdirection for some serious interdiction to make the rubble bounce.
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
32m
Sounds like a threat to me... Update: US to Iran: Grant inspectors access to workshop or face IAEA action 'within days.'
U.S. to Iran: Grant inspectors access to workshop or face action at IAEA
September 27, 20216:50 AM CDT Last Updated 10 hours ago
Cleaning staff work before a news conference attended by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi during an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, September 13, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
- Summary
- U.N. nuclear watchdog says Iran denied access to workshop
- Iran removed IAEA cameras there after apparent sabotage
- Action against Iran at IAEA could harm wider nuclear talks
- U.S., EU urge Iran to grant access 'without further delay'
The workshop at the TESA Karaj complex makes components for centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, and was hit by apparent sabotage in June in which one of four International Atomic Energy Agency cameras there was destroyed. Iran removed them and the destroyed camera's footage is missing.
TESA Karaj was one of several sites to which Iran agreed to grant IAEA inspectors access to service IAEA monitoring equipment and replace memory cards just as they were due to fill up with data such as camera footage. The Sept. 12 accord helped avoid a diplomatic escalation between Iran and the West.
"We are deeply troubled by Iran's refusal to provide the IAEA with the needed access to service its monitoring equipment, as was agreed in the September 12 Joint Statement between the IAEA and Iran," a U.S. statement to the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors on Monday said.
It was responding to an IAEA report to member states on Sunday that said Iran had granted access to sites as agreed on Sept. 12 but not to the workshop, where IAEA inspectors were denied access on Sunday. They had planned to check if the workshop was ready to operate and re-install cameras if it was.
Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi, said overnight on Twitter that before the deal with the IAEA, Iran indicated that monitoring equipment at Karaj was "not included for servicing" because of ongoing investigations and Sunday's report "goes beyond the agreed terms of the JS (Joint Statement)".
'WITHOUT FURTHER DELAY'
The European Union told the IAEA board that Iran's failure to grant the IAEA access to the workshop was "a worrying development, contrary to the Joint Statement reached on 12 September 2021."
A resolution criticising Iran at the Board of Governors could kill hopes of resuming indirect talks between Iran and the United States to bring both sides back into compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Iran usually bristles at such resolutions and its news hardline President Ebrahim Raisi has said Iran is prepared to return to the negotiating table but not under Western "pressure". Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Friday Iran would return to the talks "very soon". read more
"We call on Iran to provide the IAEA with needed access without further delay," the U.S. statement said. "If Iran fails to do so, we will be closely consulting with other board members in the coming days on an appropriate response." read more
The European Union also called on Iran to grant access "without any further delay".
Reporting by Francois Murphy; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Mark Heinrich, William Maclean
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principl
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/XTU5KDMGAVKOFM4Z4JN3UHCIHY.jpg)
U.S. to Iran: Grant inspectors access to workshop or face action at IAEA
Iran must stop denying the U.N. nuclear watchdog access to a workshop making centrifuge parts as agreed two weeks ago or face diplomatic retaliation at the agency's Board of Governors within days, the United States said on Monday.
www.reuters.com
jward
passin' thru
Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. inspectors' access to nuclear site
September 28, 20216:21 AM CDTLast Updated 10 hours ago
2 minutes
Iranian Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Mohammad Eslami delivers his speech as IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi listens at the opening of the IAEA General Conference at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, September 20, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
DUBAI, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Iran on Tuesday rejected a U.S. call to grant U.N. inspectors access to a nuclear site, saying Washington was not qualified to demand inspections without condemning a sabotage attack on the facility, Iranian state media reported.
"Countries that did not condemn terrorist acts against Iran's nuclear site are not qualified to comment on inspections there," Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said during a visit to Moscow, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA. read more
The United States said on Monday that Iran must stop denying the U.N. nuclear watchdog access to a workshop making centrifuge parts as agreed two weeks ago or face diplomatic retaliation at the agency's Board of Governors meeting.
The workshop at the TESA Karaj complex makes components for centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, and was hit by apparent sabotage in June in which one of four International Atomic Energy Agency cameras there was destroyed. Iran removed them and the destroyed camera's footage is missing.
Reporting by Dubai newsroom, Editing by William Maclean
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/I733AOELKZPOLLIZKTA4CVO2A4.jpg)
www.reuters.com
September 28, 20216:21 AM CDTLast Updated 10 hours ago
2 minutes
Iranian Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Mohammad Eslami delivers his speech as IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi listens at the opening of the IAEA General Conference at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, September 20, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
DUBAI, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Iran on Tuesday rejected a U.S. call to grant U.N. inspectors access to a nuclear site, saying Washington was not qualified to demand inspections without condemning a sabotage attack on the facility, Iranian state media reported.
"Countries that did not condemn terrorist acts against Iran's nuclear site are not qualified to comment on inspections there," Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said during a visit to Moscow, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA. read more
The United States said on Monday that Iran must stop denying the U.N. nuclear watchdog access to a workshop making centrifuge parts as agreed two weeks ago or face diplomatic retaliation at the agency's Board of Governors meeting.
The workshop at the TESA Karaj complex makes components for centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium, and was hit by apparent sabotage in June in which one of four International Atomic Energy Agency cameras there was destroyed. Iran removed them and the destroyed camera's footage is missing.
Reporting by Dubai newsroom, Editing by William Maclean
Iran rejects U.S. demand for U.N. inspectors' access to nuclear site
Iran on Tuesday rejected a U.S. call to grant U.N. inspectors access to a nuclear site, saying Washington was not qualified to demand inspections without condemning a sabotage attack on the facility, Iranian state media reported.
www.reuters.com
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
14m
Update: Iran claims that there are Israeli forces in Azerbaijani territory ready to attack, or to help Azerbaijanis, in a conflict.
@EndGameWW3
·
14m
Update: Iran claims that there are Israeli forces in Azerbaijani territory ready to attack, or to help Azerbaijanis, in a conflict.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
7m
Just like Iran claims to have troops by the Golan, Israel moves troops closer to Iran. They both see each others game.
@EndGameWW3
·
7m
Just like Iran claims to have troops by the Golan, Israel moves troops closer to Iran. They both see each others game.
Begs the question as to whether the CIS/Russians or the Turks are going to step up to "dissuade" Tehran?......
This posting I made in Plain Jane's European current events thread is also pertinent here as well.....HC
www.timebomb2000.com
Posted for fair use.....
www.al-monitor.com
Top generals step down in ominous sign for Turkish military in Syria
Top generals in charge of Turkey’s military operations in Syria have sought retirement amid escalating tensions in Idlib, fueling questions over Ankara’s Syria policies.
Metin Gurcan
@Metin4020
September 29, 2021
Turkey was rattled last week by reports that five generals serving on Syria-related missions were seeking to resign, including the head of a command center in charge of all Turkish operations in Syria and two others at the helm of commando forces that are deployed in Syria on a rotational basis.
An unnamed Defense Ministry official told the state-run Anatolia news agency that only two generals had asked to retire “due to health and familial reasons” and their requests had been granted. “The presentation of the two generals’ retirement requests as something extraordinary [and a sign of] problems within the Turkish Armed Forces is seen as an effort to create perceptions aimed at discrediting the Turkish Armed Forces,” the official was quoted as saying.
Still, abrupt retirement requests by meritorious generals with ample operational experience and bright careers ahead of them are highly unusual in the deep-rooted traditions of the Turkish military, especially in the middle of critical missions. Early retirement requests by such figures can be read as a gesture of disagreement with their superiors or disapproval of government policies.
In the context of Turkey’s military intervention in Syria, the following reasons seem likely:
Most recently, three Turkish soldiers were killed Sept. 11 when an anti-tank guided missile hit their armored vehicle on a road between Idlib city and Binnish.
Turkish-Russian accords on Idlib have thus far allowed Turkey to maintain its military presence in the region. It has effectively served as a barrier to large-scale offensives by Syrian government forces to recapture the province. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi Sept. 29, a summit that might prove a turning point for Turkey in Syria with serious implications in domestic politics. This time, Russia appears keen on securing the evacuation of six Turkish military outposts in the area between Idlib and Saraqib to the east, clearing the way for Syrian government forces to march on Idlib from the east and the northeast and eventually recapture it. Such a move would mean that Moscow no longer sees a need to collaborate with Turkey in Idlib and limit the Turkish military presence to the north of Idlib. Such a development is likely to trigger a fresh refugee flow to and across the Turkish border and stoke anti-refugee sentiments in Turkey atop the recent public outcry over the influx of Afghans fleeing the Taliban.
Controversy over the Turkish military’s personnel management has been fanned further by reports about a record number of colonels being forced into early retirement — around 200 at the Supreme Military Council in August and about 600 at last year’s council.
Overstaffing at the rank of colonel has long been an issue for the Defense Ministry, but the measures taken have resulted in highly unfair procedures. The service term of military officers was limited to 28 years in 2016 and a promotion to general now requires a decision by the Supreme Military Council, regardless of age and length of service. Those who are not promoted could be sent into retirement as early as their 40s and despite their involuntary retirements, would have to wait until the age of 50 to receive pensions. Hundreds of colonels have reportedly been affected by the policy, left without financial means and social security until the age of 50 after at least 20 years of military service. Their numbers will grow each year unless this unfair procedure is rectified.
By sending young colonels into retirement, the Turkish military is losing officers at their most productive age even as it seems to struggle to find senior-level officers for critical posts. Instead, perhaps the ministry should focus on legal amendments that keep officers longer in lower ranks and prevent them from climbing too quickly through automatic promotions.
Meanwhile, the changes in the military’s long-established assignment and promotion system have fueled questions of whether Erdogan’s government is conducting covert purges to create room for loyalists and the Turkish Armed Forces are on the way to becoming partisan.
The military had already seen massive purges and shakeups after the failed coup attempt in July 2016. Controversial legal amendments removed parliamentary oversight and other checks and balances in the military-government relationship, establishing absolute presidential control. And since Erdogan assumed sweeping executive powers in 2018, the military has become increasingly politicized and embroiled in daily political bickering.
Erdogan’s government has repeatedly shown that it seeks unquestioned control of any changes in the military rather than an inclusive process of reform that is based on compromise and open to public debate, including the views of the opposition. As a result, the military continues to be drawn into the clamor of daily politics. Ultimately, the controversies are not only harming morale and motivation in the military, but also eroding its operational effectiveness.
More from Metin Gurcan
How an Islamic State suspect lived as a shopkeeper in Turkey
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 22, 2021
Turkey’s defense industry suffers setback but future remains promising
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 14, 2021
Erdogan heralds massive military complex to coordinate military, security agencies
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 8, 2021
Read more: Top generals step down in ominous sign for Turkish military in Syria
INTL - Europe: Politics, Economics, and Military- September 2021
Shots fired at Ukraine presidential aide's car Ukrainian police say the car of a top aide to the country's president came under heavy gunfire, seriously wounding the driver By The Associated Press 22 September 2021, 04:12 KYIV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian police say the car of a top aide to the...
Posted for fair use.....
Top generals step down in ominous sign for Turkish military in Syria
Top generals in charge of Turkey’s military operations in Syria have sought retirement amid escalating tensions in Idlib, fueling questions over Ankara’s Syria policies.
www.al-monitor.com
Top generals step down in ominous sign for Turkish military in Syria
Top generals in charge of Turkey’s military operations in Syria have sought retirement amid escalating tensions in Idlib, fueling questions over Ankara’s Syria policies.
Metin Gurcan
@Metin4020
September 29, 2021
Turkey was rattled last week by reports that five generals serving on Syria-related missions were seeking to resign, including the head of a command center in charge of all Turkish operations in Syria and two others at the helm of commando forces that are deployed in Syria on a rotational basis.
An unnamed Defense Ministry official told the state-run Anatolia news agency that only two generals had asked to retire “due to health and familial reasons” and their requests had been granted. “The presentation of the two generals’ retirement requests as something extraordinary [and a sign of] problems within the Turkish Armed Forces is seen as an effort to create perceptions aimed at discrediting the Turkish Armed Forces,” the official was quoted as saying.
Still, abrupt retirement requests by meritorious generals with ample operational experience and bright careers ahead of them are highly unusual in the deep-rooted traditions of the Turkish military, especially in the middle of critical missions. Early retirement requests by such figures can be read as a gesture of disagreement with their superiors or disapproval of government policies.
In the context of Turkey’s military intervention in Syria, the following reasons seem likely:
- The government’s Syria policy — or lack thereof — has become so irreconcilable with the operational reality in Syria that commanders are struggling to cover it up on the ground.
- The government’s policy and political directives on Syria have come to significantly jeopardize the safety of Turkish soldiers.
- Military commanders and their units are growing increasingly disturbed by the intensity of operations and frequency of rotations.
- The overall risk is growing for Turkey in Syria, especially in Idlib, the last stronghold of radical Islamist rebels.
Most recently, three Turkish soldiers were killed Sept. 11 when an anti-tank guided missile hit their armored vehicle on a road between Idlib city and Binnish.
Turkish-Russian accords on Idlib have thus far allowed Turkey to maintain its military presence in the region. It has effectively served as a barrier to large-scale offensives by Syrian government forces to recapture the province. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi Sept. 29, a summit that might prove a turning point for Turkey in Syria with serious implications in domestic politics. This time, Russia appears keen on securing the evacuation of six Turkish military outposts in the area between Idlib and Saraqib to the east, clearing the way for Syrian government forces to march on Idlib from the east and the northeast and eventually recapture it. Such a move would mean that Moscow no longer sees a need to collaborate with Turkey in Idlib and limit the Turkish military presence to the north of Idlib. Such a development is likely to trigger a fresh refugee flow to and across the Turkish border and stoke anti-refugee sentiments in Turkey atop the recent public outcry over the influx of Afghans fleeing the Taliban.
Controversy over the Turkish military’s personnel management has been fanned further by reports about a record number of colonels being forced into early retirement — around 200 at the Supreme Military Council in August and about 600 at last year’s council.
Overstaffing at the rank of colonel has long been an issue for the Defense Ministry, but the measures taken have resulted in highly unfair procedures. The service term of military officers was limited to 28 years in 2016 and a promotion to general now requires a decision by the Supreme Military Council, regardless of age and length of service. Those who are not promoted could be sent into retirement as early as their 40s and despite their involuntary retirements, would have to wait until the age of 50 to receive pensions. Hundreds of colonels have reportedly been affected by the policy, left without financial means and social security until the age of 50 after at least 20 years of military service. Their numbers will grow each year unless this unfair procedure is rectified.
By sending young colonels into retirement, the Turkish military is losing officers at their most productive age even as it seems to struggle to find senior-level officers for critical posts. Instead, perhaps the ministry should focus on legal amendments that keep officers longer in lower ranks and prevent them from climbing too quickly through automatic promotions.
Meanwhile, the changes in the military’s long-established assignment and promotion system have fueled questions of whether Erdogan’s government is conducting covert purges to create room for loyalists and the Turkish Armed Forces are on the way to becoming partisan.
The military had already seen massive purges and shakeups after the failed coup attempt in July 2016. Controversial legal amendments removed parliamentary oversight and other checks and balances in the military-government relationship, establishing absolute presidential control. And since Erdogan assumed sweeping executive powers in 2018, the military has become increasingly politicized and embroiled in daily political bickering.
Erdogan’s government has repeatedly shown that it seeks unquestioned control of any changes in the military rather than an inclusive process of reform that is based on compromise and open to public debate, including the views of the opposition. As a result, the military continues to be drawn into the clamor of daily politics. Ultimately, the controversies are not only harming morale and motivation in the military, but also eroding its operational effectiveness.
More from Metin Gurcan
How an Islamic State suspect lived as a shopkeeper in Turkey
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 22, 2021
Turkey’s defense industry suffers setback but future remains promising
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 14, 2021
Erdogan heralds massive military complex to coordinate military, security agencies
Metin Gurcan | Turkey | Sep 8, 2021
Read more: Top generals step down in ominous sign for Turkish military in Syria
Well the Turks are definitely paying attention....
jward
passin' thru
jward
passin' thru
Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
11m
#BREAKING: Remember that mysterious explosion at the IRGC research center which killed two people? @ImageSatIntl has the details. They report it was at a secret Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group facility--which is central to #Iran's ballistic missile program.
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1443634109369266178?s=20
@JasonMBrodsky
11m
#BREAKING: Remember that mysterious explosion at the IRGC research center which killed two people? @ImageSatIntl has the details. They report it was at a secret Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group facility--which is central to #Iran's ballistic missile program.
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1443634109369266178?s=20
jward
passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
Update: Azerbaijan: The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry launched a new Land Forces Command Control Center. The General Staff of the Azerbaijani Army is closely monitoring the movements of Iranian troops from this Center. (GNN Pakistan Media)
11:59 PM · Sep 30, 2021·Twitter for Android
Tensions Mount as Iran Deploys Armoured Forces on Azerbaijan Border
RT 5:08
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AJwvvlqqGM
RT 5:08
Oct 1, 2021
Ed Nash's Military Matters
40K subscribers
The sudden announcement by Iran that they are conducting a major military exercise on their border with Azerbaijan has alarmed observers.
Background videos:
The War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan - https://youtu.be/7ha9MO_j16k
How did Azerbaijan Identify Armenian Air Defences? By Letting Them Shoot Down Their Aircraft! - https://youtu.be/sgETh_55wI0
Armenia/Azerbaijan agree Peace Deal After Russian Helicopter Shot Down - https://youtu.be/76yfEGEnCqs
Syrian Mercenaries Fighting in Armenia - https://youtu.be/3rtiNNE_81M
US Navy Make Huge Arms Seizure in North Arabian Sea, plus other Shenanigans in the Gulf - https://youtu.be/85rmrYtqSI4
Things in the Gulf Are Looking Tense as Israel Accuses Iran of Attacking One of Their Ships - https://youtu.be/E4EFoTfi6xs
jward
passin' thru
Report: Israel to Step Up Military Assault on Iran Axis
October 1, 2021
Israel to step up attacks on Iran (Archive: Eden Briand, IDF/CC)
Israel is expected to boost its military and covert campaign against Iran in the coming months. The intensified assault will likely include strikes on Iranian assets and proxies across the Middle East, Maariv daily says.
In parallel, Mossad may also step up covert operations to sabotage Iran’s nuclear project, journalist Tal Lev-Ram reported.
The IDF may launch retaliation strikes inside Iran if the military friction escalates, he wrote.
Neutralizing the drone threat posed by the Iran axis is a high priority for Israel, the report added. Notably, Prime Minister Bennett and Defense Minister Gantz recently highlighted the growing danger in yet another signal that stronger action may be imminent.
The latest report comes as more details emerge about a mysterious blast and fire at an Iranian military site this week. New satellite images show extensive damage at a secret Revolutionary Guards missile base, ImageSat International revealed.
An analysis of the images suggests that the incident, which killed two people, was caused by an act of sabotage, Intelligence blog Intelli Times said. There was no official comment from Israel.
israelradar.com
October 1, 2021
Israel to step up attacks on Iran (Archive: Eden Briand, IDF/CC)
Israel is expected to boost its military and covert campaign against Iran in the coming months. The intensified assault will likely include strikes on Iranian assets and proxies across the Middle East, Maariv daily says.
In parallel, Mossad may also step up covert operations to sabotage Iran’s nuclear project, journalist Tal Lev-Ram reported.
The IDF may launch retaliation strikes inside Iran if the military friction escalates, he wrote.
Neutralizing the drone threat posed by the Iran axis is a high priority for Israel, the report added. Notably, Prime Minister Bennett and Defense Minister Gantz recently highlighted the growing danger in yet another signal that stronger action may be imminent.
The latest report comes as more details emerge about a mysterious blast and fire at an Iranian military site this week. New satellite images show extensive damage at a secret Revolutionary Guards missile base, ImageSat International revealed.
An analysis of the images suggests that the incident, which killed two people, was caused by an act of sabotage, Intelligence blog Intelli Times said. There was no official comment from Israel.
Report: Israel to Step Up Military Assault on Iran Axis
Israel is expected to boost military and covert campaign against Iran in coming months. Intensified assault will likely include...
israelradar.com