Celestial Inbound CME

Peter

Senior Member
Forwarded from Spaceweather.com:

SOLAR FLARE, TSUNAMI AND RADIATION STORM (UPDATED): A lot of things just happened all at once. Sunspot AR2975 erupted on March 28th (1129 UT), producing a major M4-class solar flare. The blast propelled a 'solar tsunami' through the sun's atmosphere. You can see it rippling away from the blast site in this movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:


This tsunami was 'radio-active.' Its rippling leading edge beamed radio waves toward Earth. "I received a fantastic solar radio burst at 56 MHz," reports Rob Stammes who recorded the outburst at his space weather observatory in Lofoton, Norway. At about the same time, the US Air Force says they recorded both Type II and Type IV solar radio bursts.

Ironically, while the sun was turning itself into a temporary radio beacon, it simultaneously wiped out some radio transmissions on Earth. A pulse of X-rays from the flare ionized the top of the atmosphere over Africa, causing a shortwave radio blackout:

Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed fading and other unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

Energetic protons accelerated by the flare+tsunami are now peppering Earth's magnetosphere, causing a minor S1-class radiation storm. Our planet's magnetic field is funneling some of these particles toward the poles where a second type of radio blackout is underway--a Polar Cap Absorption Event. Airplanes flying over these regions may find that their shortwave radios won't work during the transit: polar cap absorption map.

UPDATE: Newly-arriving coronagraph images from SOHO confirm that a full-halo CME is heading for Earth. Stay tuned for movies and estimates of the CME's arrival time.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
www.solarham.com

UPDATE:
An official CME tracking model is now available with an Earth passage predicted on March 31st. A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch will be in place. Aurora sky watchers should be alert during the next 48-72 hours.

ORIGINAL POST:

As I suspected yesterday evening, AR 2975 did finally produce a noteworthy solar flare.

An asymmetric halo CME is confirmed following an M4.0 solar flare event at 11:29 UTC (Mar 28). A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1259 km/s was detected. A minor (S1) radiation storm is currently in progress as energetic particles stream past our planet following the event. Although the majority of plasma appears to be directed to the north and west, an Earth directed component is likely. Early CME analysis shows a passage past Earth possible by March 31st. More updates regarding the official forecast to follow later this evening.

In the meantime, AR 2975 remains fairly volatile and will remain a threat for additional moderate M-Flares. There is now also an increasing chance for a major X-Class event.

 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
March 27, 2022 @ 23:30 UTC (Updated)
Hello again. Here is a quick, yet fairly interesting solar update.

Earth facing active region (AR) 2975 expanded on Sunday in both size and magnetic complexity. A line between positive and negative polarity also appears to be forming and this could bode well for the chances of a noteworthy solar flare. This region will be monitored closely for additional development.

A new AR turned into view off the southeast limb and was numbered 2978. A secondary spot appears to be trailing the main dark core and is currently producing low level C-Flares. We will get a better look during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached Active (Kp4) levels. The solar wind stream did increase to around 500 km/s and is likely related to the onset of an expected coronal hole stream. A faint halo CME observed on March 25th is predicted to reach Earth at any moment, however as of this update, no impacts have been detected. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will remain in effect.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest space weather news and updates.



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