[Health] Bird Flu news on now on NBC Nightly News
- Thread starter Seabird
- Start date
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Funny, mainstream media is just STARTING to report this as BIG news....oh so sad if our own gov't isn't acknowledging the TRUTH........they just started spilling the beans in a sweet, nonalarming fashion last week 
Asian bird flu claims two more victims
Health officials brace for possibility of pandemicBy Robert Bazell
Correspondent
NBC News
Updated: 6:42 p.m. ET March 1, 2005NEW YORK - Officials in Vietnam announced Tuesday that a 35-year-old man and a 14-year-old girl had tested positive for a potentially lethal bird flu virus known as H5N1, which has been spreading among chickens and other birds in Southeast Asia. These are the latest cases in what many public health officials worry is the possible beginning of a worldwide outbreak of a deadly new flu.
The virus has now killed millions of birds and infected more than 50 people, killing three out of every four patients. Now there is evidence that in rare cases it can spread from person to person.
"The virus is clearly going in what we call the wrong direction for us," says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases.
The big concern is that the virus will mutate even more until it reaches the point that it spreads easily from person to person. The result would be what scientists call a pandemic — a worldwide outbreak of a virus to which people have no immunity.
That situation is what happened in 1918 when 20 million to 50 million people around the world died from a new strain of flu that also originated in birds. Experts agree there will be another flu pandemic, but no one knows when.
"It absolutely dwarfs all other public health problems that we can imagine," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
Health officials brace for possibility of pandemicBy Robert Bazell
Correspondent
NBC News
Updated: 6:42 p.m. ET March 1, 2005NEW YORK - Officials in Vietnam announced Tuesday that a 35-year-old man and a 14-year-old girl had tested positive for a potentially lethal bird flu virus known as H5N1, which has been spreading among chickens and other birds in Southeast Asia. These are the latest cases in what many public health officials worry is the possible beginning of a worldwide outbreak of a deadly new flu.
The virus has now killed millions of birds and infected more than 50 people, killing three out of every four patients. Now there is evidence that in rare cases it can spread from person to person.
"The virus is clearly going in what we call the wrong direction for us," says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases.
The big concern is that the virus will mutate even more until it reaches the point that it spreads easily from person to person. The result would be what scientists call a pandemic — a worldwide outbreak of a virus to which people have no immunity.
That situation is what happened in 1918 when 20 million to 50 million people around the world died from a new strain of flu that also originated in birds. Experts agree there will be another flu pandemic, but no one knows when.
"It absolutely dwarfs all other public health problems that we can imagine," says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7051023/
Vietnam confirms 14-year-old girl has bird flu
Virus has killed 47 people in Asia in past year
Updated: 11:58 a.m. ET March 1, 2005HANOI - A 35-year-old Vietnamese poultry market cleaner and a 14-year-old girl, both in the north of the country, have contracted bird flu, which has killed 47 people in Asia.
advertisement
The Lao Dong newspaper said on Tuesday the woman was taken to hospital on Feb. 24 and tests confirmed on Monday she had the virus, which experts fear could mutate into a form that could pass between people and unleash a global flu pandemic that might kill millions.
The woman, from a district of the capital, Hanoi, is the latest bird flu patient detected in northern Vietnam, where fewer outbreaks have been reported in recent weeks, but where cool spring weather still favours the spread of the H5N1 virus.
A laboratory researcher said tests on the other patient, the 14-year-old girl, also confirmed she had the virus that had also infected her 21-year-old brother.
“The girl also has the virus,” said the researcher at Hanoi’s National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology which conducts bird flu tests.
Paula Bronstein / Getty Images
The rapid spread of bird flu, which is not uncommon among chickens and other fowl, has caught the attention of global health authorities. Click on the topics to learn more about the illness and why scientists are so concerned.
There are at least 15 different types of avian influenza that routinely infect birds around the world. The current outbreak is caused by a strain known as H5N1, which is highly contagious among birds and rapidly fatal. Unlike many other strains of avian influenza, it can be transmitted to humans, causing severe illness and death.
Bird flu is not the same as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Although their symptoms are similar, SARS is caused by completely different viruses. Influenza viruses also are more contagious and cannot be as readily contained as SARS by isolating people who have the infection.
Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease. This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.
The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.
In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread.
The current outbreak of bird flu is different from earlier ones in that officials have been unable to contain its spread. An outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong was the first time the virus had spread to people, but it was much more quickly contained. A total of 18 people were hospitalized with six reported deaths. About 1.5 million chickens were killed in an effort to remove the source of the virus.
Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.
Bird flu can cause a range of symptoms in humans. Some patients report fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches. Others suffer from eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other severe and life-threatening complications.
Flu drugs exist that may be used both to prevent people from catching bird flu and to treat those who have it. The virus appears to be resistant to two older generic flu drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. However, the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are expected to work – though supplies could run out quickly if an outbreak occurs.
Currently there is no vaccine, although scientists are working to develop one. It probably will take several months to complete and may not be ready in time to stop a widespread human outbreak, if one occurs.
Rapid elimination of the H5N1 virus among infected birds and other animals is essential to preventing a major outbreak. The World Health Organization recommends that infected or exposed flocks of chickens and other birds be killed in order to help prevent further spread of the virus and reduce opportunities for human infection. However, the agency warns that safety measures must be taken to prevent exposure to the virus among workers involved in culling.
Sources: AP, CDC & WHO
Her brother has been in critical condition and on a respirator after a traditional drink of duck blood before the Lunar New Year festival last month, officials said.
The siblings and a 36-year-old infected man are from the northern province of Thai Binh, 110 km (70 miles) southeast of Hanoi and far from the southern Mekong Delta where the outbreaks began in December.
Officials said the H5N1 virus killed a 69-year-old man last week in Thai Binh, taking the toll to 14 people in Vietnam since December and the total to 47 since the virus erupted across large parts of Asia at the end of 2003.
Almost all the victims -- 34 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and a Cambodian -- have caught it directly from poultry.
The Agriculture Ministry said poultry infections occured this year only on small farms.
It has ordered a halt until June 30 to the hatching and raising of waterfowl such as ducks and geese, which experts said can carry the virus without showing symptoms.
But state-run Voice of Vietnam radio said on Tuesday farmers in several bird flu-hit Mekong Delta provinces had tried to avoid the ministry’s order by letting their ducks wander off into rice fields to hide from inspectors.
Copyright 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
Vietnam confirms 14-year-old girl has bird flu
Virus has killed 47 people in Asia in past year
Updated: 11:58 a.m. ET March 1, 2005HANOI - A 35-year-old Vietnamese poultry market cleaner and a 14-year-old girl, both in the north of the country, have contracted bird flu, which has killed 47 people in Asia.
advertisement
The Lao Dong newspaper said on Tuesday the woman was taken to hospital on Feb. 24 and tests confirmed on Monday she had the virus, which experts fear could mutate into a form that could pass between people and unleash a global flu pandemic that might kill millions.
The woman, from a district of the capital, Hanoi, is the latest bird flu patient detected in northern Vietnam, where fewer outbreaks have been reported in recent weeks, but where cool spring weather still favours the spread of the H5N1 virus.
A laboratory researcher said tests on the other patient, the 14-year-old girl, also confirmed she had the virus that had also infected her 21-year-old brother.
“The girl also has the virus,” said the researcher at Hanoi’s National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology which conducts bird flu tests.
Paula Bronstein / Getty Images
The rapid spread of bird flu, which is not uncommon among chickens and other fowl, has caught the attention of global health authorities. Click on the topics to learn more about the illness and why scientists are so concerned.
There are at least 15 different types of avian influenza that routinely infect birds around the world. The current outbreak is caused by a strain known as H5N1, which is highly contagious among birds and rapidly fatal. Unlike many other strains of avian influenza, it can be transmitted to humans, causing severe illness and death.
Bird flu is not the same as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Although their symptoms are similar, SARS is caused by completely different viruses. Influenza viruses also are more contagious and cannot be as readily contained as SARS by isolating people who have the infection.
Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease. This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.
The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.
In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread.
The current outbreak of bird flu is different from earlier ones in that officials have been unable to contain its spread. An outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong was the first time the virus had spread to people, but it was much more quickly contained. A total of 18 people were hospitalized with six reported deaths. About 1.5 million chickens were killed in an effort to remove the source of the virus.
Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.
Bird flu can cause a range of symptoms in humans. Some patients report fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches. Others suffer from eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other severe and life-threatening complications.
Flu drugs exist that may be used both to prevent people from catching bird flu and to treat those who have it. The virus appears to be resistant to two older generic flu drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. However, the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are expected to work – though supplies could run out quickly if an outbreak occurs.
Currently there is no vaccine, although scientists are working to develop one. It probably will take several months to complete and may not be ready in time to stop a widespread human outbreak, if one occurs.
Rapid elimination of the H5N1 virus among infected birds and other animals is essential to preventing a major outbreak. The World Health Organization recommends that infected or exposed flocks of chickens and other birds be killed in order to help prevent further spread of the virus and reduce opportunities for human infection. However, the agency warns that safety measures must be taken to prevent exposure to the virus among workers involved in culling.
Sources: AP, CDC & WHO
Her brother has been in critical condition and on a respirator after a traditional drink of duck blood before the Lunar New Year festival last month, officials said.
The siblings and a 36-year-old infected man are from the northern province of Thai Binh, 110 km (70 miles) southeast of Hanoi and far from the southern Mekong Delta where the outbreaks began in December.
Officials said the H5N1 virus killed a 69-year-old man last week in Thai Binh, taking the toll to 14 people in Vietnam since December and the total to 47 since the virus erupted across large parts of Asia at the end of 2003.
Almost all the victims -- 34 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and a Cambodian -- have caught it directly from poultry.
The Agriculture Ministry said poultry infections occured this year only on small farms.
It has ordered a halt until June 30 to the hatching and raising of waterfowl such as ducks and geese, which experts said can carry the virus without showing symptoms.
But state-run Voice of Vietnam radio said on Tuesday farmers in several bird flu-hit Mekong Delta provinces had tried to avoid the ministry’s order by letting their ducks wander off into rice fields to hide from inspectors.
Copyright 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
Hansa44
Justine Case
20 to 50 million people died in the 1918 pandemic. So what was the population back then and what would the % be of the population that died?
That would give us an idea of how many might be done in this time. Actually, it could be worse due to the terribly crowded cities all over the world.
Answered my own question. The world population was 1.8 billion people. Today there are 7 billion?
That would give us an idea of how many might be done in this time. Actually, it could be worse due to the terribly crowded cities all over the world.
Answered my own question. The world population was 1.8 billion people. Today there are 7 billion?
thanks seabird for posting that transcript. All economic decisions, all plans to sell a house etc. or go into debt in some way should be made with this pandemic in mind.
What was new in this transcript is that in rare cases it has already been passed from human to human. What does that mean? Anyone care to venture a guess?
3 out of 4......wow!
What was new in this transcript is that in rare cases it has already been passed from human to human. What does that mean? Anyone care to venture a guess?
3 out of 4......wow!
WHO: Bird flu pandemic is imminent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6861065/
WHO: Bird flu pandemic is imminent
Governments must act swiftly to prevent outbreak, officials say
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 3:25 p.m. ET Feb. 23, 2005World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus.
The illness has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say.
“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.
He said the world is “now overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20 to 30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one.
Better coordination critical
Speaking at the opening of a three-day bird flu conference in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, Omi said it is critical that the international community better coordinate its fight against the virus.
As bird flu experts met to devise plans to combat the H5N1 virus, scientists said they lacked knowledge about whether the strain that has led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds has the pandemic potential of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.
They cautioned that more evidence is needed about how infectious the virus is in humans.
To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 would have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans who have no protection against it.
“We don’t know whether the virus that is currently circulating among poultry in southeast Asia, the H5N1, will eventually be able to reassert its genetic material with a human influenza virus. That is the key question,” Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading European virologist at Erasmus University Hospital in Rotterdam, told Reuters in an interview.
So far the H5N1 strain has shown no evidence that it has become highly infectious in humans. Scientists also do not know how many people may have been exposed to it.
But Laurence Tiley, a molecular virologist at Cambridge University in England, said the H5N1 strain is lethal.
“It is the most likely candidate for adapting and becoming a pandemic strain because we are not going to be able to get rid of it easily,” he said.
The rapid spread of bird flu, which is not uncommon among chickens and other fowl, has caught the attention of global health authorities. Click on the topics to learn more about the illness and why scientists are so concerned.
There are at least 15 different types of avian influenza that routinely infect birds around the world. The current outbreak is caused by a strain known as H5N1, which is highly contagious among birds and rapidly fatal. Unlike many other strains of avian influenza, it can be transmitted to humans, causing severe illness and death.
Bird flu is not the same as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Although their symptoms are similar, SARS is caused by completely different viruses. Influenza viruses also are more contagious and cannot be as readily contained as SARS by isolating people who have the infection.
Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease. This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.
The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.
In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread.
The current outbreak of bird flu is different from earlier ones in that officials have been unable to contain its spread. An outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong was the first time the virus had spread to people, but it was much more quickly contained. A total of 18 people were hospitalized with six reported deaths. About 1.5 million chickens were killed in an effort to remove the source of the virus.
Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.
Bird flu can cause a range of symptoms in humans. Some patients report fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches. Others suffer from eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other severe and life-threatening complications.
Flu drugs exist that may be used both to prevent people from catching bird flu and to treat those who have it. The virus appears to be resistant to two older generic flu drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. However, the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are expected to work – though supplies could run out quickly if an outbreak occurs.
Currently there is no vaccine, although scientists are working to develop one. It probably will take several months to complete and may not be ready in time to stop a widespread human outbreak, if one occurs.
Rapid elimination of the H5N1 virus among infected birds and other animals is essential to preventing a major outbreak. The World Health Organization recommends that infected or exposed flocks of chickens and other birds be killed in order to help prevent further spread of the virus and reduce opportunities for human infection. However, the agency warns that safety measures must be taken to prevent exposure to the virus among workers involved in culling.
Sources: AP, CDC & WHO • Print this
Preparedness plans urged
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is taking the threat of a possible pandemic "very seriously" and is working closely with the global health community to quickly detect any emergence of the new strain, CDC spokesperson Tom Skinner told MSNBC.com on Wednesday.
The mortality rate among identified patients who contract the disease from chickens and ducks is about 72 percent, said Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the of the CDC.
However, on Tuesday she downplayed an earlier report about a possible avian flu pandemic.
"We are ... not on the brink of an avian flu epidemic," she said at a National Press Club luncheon.
But officials with the WHO appeared far more concerned about the possibility of a bird flu epidemic. In comparing the deadly virus to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed nearly 800 people in 2003, Omi said, “If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous, and certainly much greater than SARS."
The challenge for many countries is the lack of diagnostic tools and surveillance systems needed for early warnings, said Omi.
“This is why we are urging all governments to work now on a pandemic preparedness plan — so that even in an emergency such as this they will be able to provide basic public services such as transport, sanitation and power,” he said.
The disease, which devastated the region’s poultry industry last year as it swept through nearly a dozen countries, has killed 32 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian over the past year.
Related story
Few in Asia appear concerned about threat of bird flu
'Very resilient' virus
Officials acknowledge that one of the biggest challenges in controlling avian flu is in altering traditional farming practices in Asia where animals live in close, often unsanitary quarters with people.
Dr. Samuel Jutzi, of the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said the avian flu virus will persist in Asia for years and coordinated efforts need to focus on controlling it at its source — in animals.
“This means addressing the transmission of the virus where the disease occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland dwelling ducks, and thus curbing the disease occurrence in the region before it spreads to other parts of the world,” he said.
The regional conference held in southern Ho Chi Minh City near the Mekong Delta where the latest outbreaks emerged this year has brought together scientists and representatives from more than two dozen countries.
Bird flu’s reemergence in Vietnam has shown the virus is now endemic in parts of the region.
The virus has proven to be “very versatile and very resilient,” and has even been found in animals such as tigers and cats that weren’t believed to be susceptible to influenza, he added.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6861065/
WHO: Bird flu pandemic is imminent
Governments must act swiftly to prevent outbreak, officials say
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 3:25 p.m. ET Feb. 23, 2005World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus.
The illness has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say.
“We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic,” Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday.
He said the world is “now overdue” for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20 to 30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one.
Better coordination critical
Speaking at the opening of a three-day bird flu conference in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City, Omi said it is critical that the international community better coordinate its fight against the virus.
As bird flu experts met to devise plans to combat the H5N1 virus, scientists said they lacked knowledge about whether the strain that has led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds has the pandemic potential of the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 million and 40 million people.
They cautioned that more evidence is needed about how infectious the virus is in humans.
To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 would have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans who have no protection against it.
“We don’t know whether the virus that is currently circulating among poultry in southeast Asia, the H5N1, will eventually be able to reassert its genetic material with a human influenza virus. That is the key question,” Professor Albert Osterhaus, a leading European virologist at Erasmus University Hospital in Rotterdam, told Reuters in an interview.
So far the H5N1 strain has shown no evidence that it has become highly infectious in humans. Scientists also do not know how many people may have been exposed to it.
But Laurence Tiley, a molecular virologist at Cambridge University in England, said the H5N1 strain is lethal.
“It is the most likely candidate for adapting and becoming a pandemic strain because we are not going to be able to get rid of it easily,” he said.
The rapid spread of bird flu, which is not uncommon among chickens and other fowl, has caught the attention of global health authorities. Click on the topics to learn more about the illness and why scientists are so concerned.
There are at least 15 different types of avian influenza that routinely infect birds around the world. The current outbreak is caused by a strain known as H5N1, which is highly contagious among birds and rapidly fatal. Unlike many other strains of avian influenza, it can be transmitted to humans, causing severe illness and death.
Bird flu is not the same as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Although their symptoms are similar, SARS is caused by completely different viruses. Influenza viruses also are more contagious and cannot be as readily contained as SARS by isolating people who have the infection.
Influenza viruses are highly unstable and have the ability to mutate rapidly, potentially jumping from one animal species to another. Scientists fear the bird flu virus could evolve into a form that is easily spread between people, resulting in an extremely contagious and lethal disease. This could happen if someone already infected with the human flu virus catches the bird flu. The two viruses could recombine inside the victim’s body, producing a hybrid that could readily spread from person to person.
The resulting virus likely would be something humans have never been exposed to before. With no immune defenses, the infection could cause devastating illness, such as occurred in the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million worldwide.
In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread.
The current outbreak of bird flu is different from earlier ones in that officials have been unable to contain its spread. An outbreak in 1997 in Hong Kong was the first time the virus had spread to people, but it was much more quickly contained. A total of 18 people were hospitalized with six reported deaths. About 1.5 million chickens were killed in an effort to remove the source of the virus.
Unlike the 1997 scare, this outbreak has spread more rapidly to other countries, increasing its exposure to people in varied locations and raising the likelihood that the strain will combine with a human influenza virus.
Bird flu can cause a range of symptoms in humans. Some patients report fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches. Others suffer from eye infections, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress and other severe and life-threatening complications.
Flu drugs exist that may be used both to prevent people from catching bird flu and to treat those who have it. The virus appears to be resistant to two older generic flu drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. However, the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza are expected to work – though supplies could run out quickly if an outbreak occurs.
Currently there is no vaccine, although scientists are working to develop one. It probably will take several months to complete and may not be ready in time to stop a widespread human outbreak, if one occurs.
Rapid elimination of the H5N1 virus among infected birds and other animals is essential to preventing a major outbreak. The World Health Organization recommends that infected or exposed flocks of chickens and other birds be killed in order to help prevent further spread of the virus and reduce opportunities for human infection. However, the agency warns that safety measures must be taken to prevent exposure to the virus among workers involved in culling.
Sources: AP, CDC & WHO • Print this
Preparedness plans urged
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is taking the threat of a possible pandemic "very seriously" and is working closely with the global health community to quickly detect any emergence of the new strain, CDC spokesperson Tom Skinner told MSNBC.com on Wednesday.
The mortality rate among identified patients who contract the disease from chickens and ducks is about 72 percent, said Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the of the CDC.
However, on Tuesday she downplayed an earlier report about a possible avian flu pandemic.
"We are ... not on the brink of an avian flu epidemic," she said at a National Press Club luncheon.
But officials with the WHO appeared far more concerned about the possibility of a bird flu epidemic. In comparing the deadly virus to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed nearly 800 people in 2003, Omi said, “If the virus becomes highly contagious among humans, the health impact in terms of deaths and sickness will be enormous, and certainly much greater than SARS."
The challenge for many countries is the lack of diagnostic tools and surveillance systems needed for early warnings, said Omi.
“This is why we are urging all governments to work now on a pandemic preparedness plan — so that even in an emergency such as this they will be able to provide basic public services such as transport, sanitation and power,” he said.
The disease, which devastated the region’s poultry industry last year as it swept through nearly a dozen countries, has killed 32 Vietnamese, 12 Thais and one Cambodian over the past year.
Related story
Few in Asia appear concerned about threat of bird flu
'Very resilient' virus
Officials acknowledge that one of the biggest challenges in controlling avian flu is in altering traditional farming practices in Asia where animals live in close, often unsanitary quarters with people.
Dr. Samuel Jutzi, of the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization, said the avian flu virus will persist in Asia for years and coordinated efforts need to focus on controlling it at its source — in animals.
“This means addressing the transmission of the virus where the disease occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland dwelling ducks, and thus curbing the disease occurrence in the region before it spreads to other parts of the world,” he said.
The regional conference held in southern Ho Chi Minh City near the Mekong Delta where the latest outbreaks emerged this year has brought together scientists and representatives from more than two dozen countries.
Bird flu’s reemergence in Vietnam has shown the virus is now endemic in parts of the region.
The virus has proven to be “very versatile and very resilient,” and has even been found in animals such as tigers and cats that weren’t believed to be susceptible to influenza, he added.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
CanadaSue said:
So the Russians weren't BSing when they said this puppy could kill a billion...
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Guys, kinda looks the Bible.....when 1/3 of the population perished. Remember, it's just a book, but what they wrote looks to be playing out. JMHO. 
Remember the horsemen of the Apocalyse?
Remember the horsemen of the Apocalyse?
helen
Panic Sex Lady
Chill!
How many of you tough out illnesses all the time?
How many of you have been really sick and didn't go to the doctor?
This flu may not have as high a mortality rate as it seems.
The dying victims get counted, but maybe lots more have it and recover.
Swine flu in the 70's was supposed to be way worse than it turned out.
This is not a panty-dropping event ... yet.
How many of you tough out illnesses all the time?
How many of you have been really sick and didn't go to the doctor?
This flu may not have as high a mortality rate as it seems.
The dying victims get counted, but maybe lots more have it and recover.
Swine flu in the 70's was supposed to be way worse than it turned out.
This is not a panty-dropping event ... yet.
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
BB said:
Smallpox has a 30% mortality rate....
Fuzzychick
Membership Revoked
Helen, it may soon to drop the panties....I might join in at that time. Its serious and ramping up.
What it COULD do versus what it's LIKELY to do
If it has a 100% infectivity rate & a 33% death rate - 2 billion die. Or drop the first number to 50% & up the second to 67%. 50% of people throughout the world contracting it is quite possible. As a world population we're essentially 'virgin' - we have no immune factors of any sort against this one.
The biggest variable is the death rate. The strain this year is subtly different from last year's & seems a tad more lethal. Something on the order of 78% who got it THIS year - December onwards - have died. Last year that was about 72%.
It's possible that when it adapts to easy human transmission & easy human TO human transmission - 2 different genetic changes; it may also lose a lot of its lethality. I expect the highest death rates would be seen early on in a second wave, then as the virus spreads through the population, because it mutates so quickly, it may mutate AWAY from high lethality. Nobody can predict that. The initial pandemic strain, in different populations could turn into 10 variants of the original. At some point it may recombine with H1N1 or H3N2 strains.
Add to that the rapid rise of drug resistent secondary bacterial infections & the liklihood that a siginificant will catch those; consider that & how quickly we MAY run out of antibotics & it's THOSE combined possibilities that keep me up longer than H5N1 alone. An indivdual subtype of flu might not have a high mortality rate, but imagine a young fit person surviving the first wave. She catches a new variant late in the second wave when it's mutated away from her immunities. She barely squeaks through that. 4 months later, the poor woman comes up with an H3N1, (new recombinent), then picks up a drug resistent step infection. THAT kills her & no wonder, her immune system has already faced a series of full frontal assaults & we're out of antibiotics. A large chunk of population with secondaries will also lead to MORE drug resistent as bacteria meet in people & swap genes.
Think runaway freight train.
THAT is what worries me & at the other end of it, we'll be a pretty battered world. But...
many of us will still be ALIVE.
Other points:
It's too late to eliminate it in Vietnam at least. Can't be done unless you literally disinfect a nation - grasslands, rice paddies, fields, ponds streams, dirt floors in homes, people, all livestock - that's one massive 'ship dip' experience.
1 gram of duck feces contains enough virus to theoretically infect 1 million chickens. Can't kill every duck in the world & they ALL harbour one subtype or another.
Tamiflu WILL run out early & H5N1 is already showing it can happily mutate around it - lab tests.
Crowded cities will nail many countries giving them disproportionately high death rates. Droughts, famines, floods & other disasters & stark poverty will have the same effect.
BB - limited human to human isn't new info but in all honesty they can't prove that. They had no established contact with chickens but we've since learned asymptomatic ducks can transmit it - was that their exposure? Too late to know.
I don't like the word 'imminent'. We could hear tomorrow of human to human transmision in Hanoi, spread to Phnom Pen which are first stages of pandemic... or absolutely NOTHING may happenb save for the odd human case for the next 10 years. H5N1 can't be bothered sharing its schedule with us. Fair enough it has no agenda, no schedule. It doesn't think.
Don't count on any pandemic plan to save your bacon. Prepare to deal YOURSELF. You probably will be all you have.
If it has a 100% infectivity rate & a 33% death rate - 2 billion die. Or drop the first number to 50% & up the second to 67%. 50% of people throughout the world contracting it is quite possible. As a world population we're essentially 'virgin' - we have no immune factors of any sort against this one.
The biggest variable is the death rate. The strain this year is subtly different from last year's & seems a tad more lethal. Something on the order of 78% who got it THIS year - December onwards - have died. Last year that was about 72%.
It's possible that when it adapts to easy human transmission & easy human TO human transmission - 2 different genetic changes; it may also lose a lot of its lethality. I expect the highest death rates would be seen early on in a second wave, then as the virus spreads through the population, because it mutates so quickly, it may mutate AWAY from high lethality. Nobody can predict that. The initial pandemic strain, in different populations could turn into 10 variants of the original. At some point it may recombine with H1N1 or H3N2 strains.
Add to that the rapid rise of drug resistent secondary bacterial infections & the liklihood that a siginificant will catch those; consider that & how quickly we MAY run out of antibotics & it's THOSE combined possibilities that keep me up longer than H5N1 alone. An indivdual subtype of flu might not have a high mortality rate, but imagine a young fit person surviving the first wave. She catches a new variant late in the second wave when it's mutated away from her immunities. She barely squeaks through that. 4 months later, the poor woman comes up with an H3N1, (new recombinent), then picks up a drug resistent step infection. THAT kills her & no wonder, her immune system has already faced a series of full frontal assaults & we're out of antibiotics. A large chunk of population with secondaries will also lead to MORE drug resistent as bacteria meet in people & swap genes.
Think runaway freight train.
THAT is what worries me & at the other end of it, we'll be a pretty battered world. But...
many of us will still be ALIVE.
Other points:
It's too late to eliminate it in Vietnam at least. Can't be done unless you literally disinfect a nation - grasslands, rice paddies, fields, ponds streams, dirt floors in homes, people, all livestock - that's one massive 'ship dip' experience.
1 gram of duck feces contains enough virus to theoretically infect 1 million chickens. Can't kill every duck in the world & they ALL harbour one subtype or another.
Tamiflu WILL run out early & H5N1 is already showing it can happily mutate around it - lab tests.
Crowded cities will nail many countries giving them disproportionately high death rates. Droughts, famines, floods & other disasters & stark poverty will have the same effect.
BB - limited human to human isn't new info but in all honesty they can't prove that. They had no established contact with chickens but we've since learned asymptomatic ducks can transmit it - was that their exposure? Too late to know.
I don't like the word 'imminent'. We could hear tomorrow of human to human transmision in Hanoi, spread to Phnom Pen which are first stages of pandemic... or absolutely NOTHING may happenb save for the odd human case for the next 10 years. H5N1 can't be bothered sharing its schedule with us. Fair enough it has no agenda, no schedule. It doesn't think.
Don't count on any pandemic plan to save your bacon. Prepare to deal YOURSELF. You probably will be all you have.
Well, I'm not going to wait until I'm sick to rip DW's panties off! No sense missing a panic opportunity.
One thing which has long interested me with the 1918 flue was that it hit me young adults hardest, not the kids not the elderly.
And another thing with the 1918 flue, there was world-wide travel, but nothing like our world--in terms of both numbers and speed.
All I know, I've had two colds and one flu (the real kind--influenza) already this year, and I'm sick of it.
One thing which has long interested me with the 1918 flue was that it hit me young adults hardest, not the kids not the elderly.
And another thing with the 1918 flue, there was world-wide travel, but nothing like our world--in terms of both numbers and speed.
All I know, I've had two colds and one flu (the real kind--influenza) already this year, and I'm sick of it.
JohnGaltfla
#NeverTrump
Stress is one of the great weakeners of the immune system. Exercise and prayer are excellent stress reducers....howbeit not as pleasurable as..........sex. Combine the three with some Vitamins, fruits and vegetables and you are doing the best you can. The less meat and preservatives your system has to break down the free-er it is to build up the immune system. Helps to keep your sense of humor as well.
Jumpy Frog
Browncoat sympathizer
BB Stress is one of the great weakeners of the immune system. Exercise and prayer are excellent stress reducers....howbeit not as pleasurable as..........sex. Combine the three with some Vitamins, fruits and vegetables and you are doing the best you can. The less meat and preservatives your system has to break down the free-er it is to build up the immune system. Helps to keep your sense of humor as well.
If you have the right partner, this is easy, the cry of "Oh God" and the missionary postion come to mind. Add in some complex B and C vitamins and strawberrys dipped in chocolate (I'm not into vegies with sex) and your off to a good night.
If you have the right partner, this is easy, the cry of "Oh God" and the missionary postion come to mind. Add in some complex B and C vitamins and strawberrys dipped in chocolate (I'm not into vegies with sex) and your off to a good night.
LilRose8
Veteran Member
OK, so let's say 60-70% of the U.S. population gets sick and is down for the count for 4-6 weeks......no bills get paid, mortgages don't get paid, car notes etc........what will happen? If this many people are ill, will the PTB allow all those foreclosures, reposessions etc?
Just wanted some opinions.......
Just wanted some opinions.......
LilRose,
I think you are missing some of the probable outcomes:
1. Creditors practices vary but generally allow 30 days befor contacting a debtor. First contact is usually a phone call followed bt written notice. Some less critical services like ACable Tv, Phone service, ISP service etc may be curtailed after 60 days of an unpaid bill. I dont see that a 4-6 week illness will result in a number of repossessions or an increase in bankruptcies.
2. Depending on the Death Rate, a substantial and sudden increase in deaths would result in tremendous asset transfer to the survivors. The Black Death in Europe of 1348-1351 ushered in the Renaisance in part due to an increased opportunity for indiviudal expression and reduced compettion for fixed resources - a lower population could call on a greater percentage of fixed resources such that the quality of life improved.
3. But I dont see that death rates will be as high as 1918 or prior years due to:
a. Rapid information exchange: We already "know" more about what is going on in SE Asia, India, the Congo etc. Forewarned is forearmed - oor should be.
b. Governments are making precautions ahead of a pandemic outbreak, In the Plague of 1660, Scotland remained plague free while England was savaged because Scotland implemented a unilateral across the board quarentine of all people and goods until they were proven plague free.
c. WHO/CDC etc are on top of this and working at highest priority.
d. Much is already known about preventive measures - perosnal hygenine, washing hands, care in contact within public spaces....
Not saying this will be a stroll in the park, I agree one and ones loved ones should be prepared to shelter in place or move prior to a local outbreak to a place where population density is lower.
I do think the reason these "pandemics" start in the third world relates to their lack of sanitation, lack of public health infrastrucure, lack of information, distrust pf authorities, etc. We have it better and I would expect will fair better than poor thrid world nations.
I think you are missing some of the probable outcomes:
1. Creditors practices vary but generally allow 30 days befor contacting a debtor. First contact is usually a phone call followed bt written notice. Some less critical services like ACable Tv, Phone service, ISP service etc may be curtailed after 60 days of an unpaid bill. I dont see that a 4-6 week illness will result in a number of repossessions or an increase in bankruptcies.
2. Depending on the Death Rate, a substantial and sudden increase in deaths would result in tremendous asset transfer to the survivors. The Black Death in Europe of 1348-1351 ushered in the Renaisance in part due to an increased opportunity for indiviudal expression and reduced compettion for fixed resources - a lower population could call on a greater percentage of fixed resources such that the quality of life improved.
3. But I dont see that death rates will be as high as 1918 or prior years due to:
a. Rapid information exchange: We already "know" more about what is going on in SE Asia, India, the Congo etc. Forewarned is forearmed - oor should be.
b. Governments are making precautions ahead of a pandemic outbreak, In the Plague of 1660, Scotland remained plague free while England was savaged because Scotland implemented a unilateral across the board quarentine of all people and goods until they were proven plague free.
c. WHO/CDC etc are on top of this and working at highest priority.
d. Much is already known about preventive measures - perosnal hygenine, washing hands, care in contact within public spaces....
Not saying this will be a stroll in the park, I agree one and ones loved ones should be prepared to shelter in place or move prior to a local outbreak to a place where population density is lower.
I do think the reason these "pandemics" start in the third world relates to their lack of sanitation, lack of public health infrastrucure, lack of information, distrust pf authorities, etc. We have it better and I would expect will fair better than poor thrid world nations.
LilRose8
Veteran Member
Bill,
I am fully aware of no foreclosures after merely 6 weeks..I guess I didn't phrase the question well.....assuming a 50% death rate, that is possibly one per wage earning couple, which leaves HUGE portions of households with severly decreased incomes.......my question I guess is this, will this cause a huge increase in foreclosures etc, or will the PTB step in to provide for the survivors....I am just wondering if anyone has any thoughts.
I am fully aware of no foreclosures after merely 6 weeks..I guess I didn't phrase the question well.....assuming a 50% death rate, that is possibly one per wage earning couple, which leaves HUGE portions of households with severly decreased incomes.......my question I guess is this, will this cause a huge increase in foreclosures etc, or will the PTB step in to provide for the survivors....I am just wondering if anyone has any thoughts.
phoenix7of7
Deceased
The accountants and bill collectors and enforcers will be in the same sinking boat. I personally don't think masses of people will get kicked out of/off their property. Foreclosure doesn't do any good if there is no future buyer. In a major die-off like what I'm envisioning - the lienholders will be happy to accept whatever the occupant can provide.
I know what I'd do if somebody tried to add insult to injury. They would be left holding an empty bag .... assuming they weren't being disposed of within the bag.
I know what I'd do if somebody tried to add insult to injury. They would be left holding an empty bag .... assuming they weren't being disposed of within the bag.