Act before the crisis
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER EDITORIAL BOARD
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/209485_avianed.html
Health officials have offered a warning and a challenge.
Bird flu could mutate to spread among people, creating a worldwide pandemic that would kill millions. Although studies differ wildly on the potential death tolls, one estimate holds that as many as 7 million Americans could die. Worldwide, the figure might run to 100 million, if some assumptions about survival rates and past epidemics were to hold true.
The numbers are speculative enough to argue against panic but real enough to demand governments' efforts to head off the worst scenarios. At a conference of federal, private and corporate experts in Michigan this week, officials said an experimental vaccine against the avian flu H5N1 could go into testing this spring.
But approval of the vaccine could be several years away, possibly too late for a disease that has raged in chickens and other birds since at least 1997 and could transform itself to attack humans at any time. That argues for greatly increasing the stocks of antiviral drugs, which, if given within the first two days of illness, are extremely effective. According to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution report, France has ordered 13 million doses of Tamiflu and U.S. officials have discussed adding 8 million doses to a stockpile of 2 million.
Science has created greater ability than ever to recognize a potential pandemic. It's up to government leaders to make good use of the chance to prepare reasonably for an uncertain but looming threat.
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER EDITORIAL BOARD
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/209485_avianed.html
Health officials have offered a warning and a challenge.
Bird flu could mutate to spread among people, creating a worldwide pandemic that would kill millions. Although studies differ wildly on the potential death tolls, one estimate holds that as many as 7 million Americans could die. Worldwide, the figure might run to 100 million, if some assumptions about survival rates and past epidemics were to hold true.
The numbers are speculative enough to argue against panic but real enough to demand governments' efforts to head off the worst scenarios. At a conference of federal, private and corporate experts in Michigan this week, officials said an experimental vaccine against the avian flu H5N1 could go into testing this spring.
But approval of the vaccine could be several years away, possibly too late for a disease that has raged in chickens and other birds since at least 1997 and could transform itself to attack humans at any time. That argues for greatly increasing the stocks of antiviral drugs, which, if given within the first two days of illness, are extremely effective. According to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution report, France has ordered 13 million doses of Tamiflu and U.S. officials have discussed adding 8 million doses to a stockpile of 2 million.
Science has created greater ability than ever to recognize a potential pandemic. It's up to government leaders to make good use of the chance to prepare reasonably for an uncertain but looming threat.