ECON DOW down over 2000 points in last 6 days

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
First line of defense for the Bulls is at Dow 34,006 or (c) (iv).

If that breaks next point of support is at Dow 33,271 or (c) (ii).

If both are breached, odds are 80/20 that the "mother of all" Bear markets has begun.
 
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von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
First line of defense for the Bulls is at Dow 34,006 or (c) (iv).

If that breaks next point of support is at Dow 33,271 or (c) (ii).

If both are breached, odds are 80/20 that the "mother of all" Bear markets has begun.

The market has smashed through the first support level, increasing the odds of a Major Bear market starting.

At this posting, Dow down over 700 points or over 2 percent.

Will the second level hold?
 
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desert_fox

Threadkiller
I chuckle at some of the forums I lurk on. Before the market started a downturn if you told them to beware they mocked you something fierce. Now they are bemoaning their losses and complaining about what is going on.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Um, we are looking at nuclear exchanges between Russia and the West, as the US embassy packs up to leave Kiev next week. We are looking a global conflict on the scale of World War Two. I'm afraid economics no longer play a factor.

Both actual war fueled by the rumors of war(and actions on the ground) are shutting all major world economies. Shortages....empty food shelves...huge petrol increases...spotty medical care ARE IN THE CARDS. The result of all these events will cause THE MOTHER OF ALL DEPRESSIONS in the coming months.

Prediction: Firewood prices will go through the roof.

When all is said and done I am expecting a 20-30 percent decline in equities in the next few months.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Both actual war fueled by the rumors of war(and actions on the ground) are shutting all major world economies. Shortages....empty food shelves...huge petrol increases...spotty medical care ARE IN THE CARDS. The result of all these events will cause THE MOTHER OF ALL DEPRESSIONS in the coming months.

Prediction: Firewood prices will go through the roof.

When all is said and done I am expecting a 20-30 percent decline in equities in the next few months.

I am not giving out my prediction because few could believe it and I always got stupid remarks.
 

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I am not giving out my prediction because few could believe it and I always got stupid remarks.
Personally I value your input. I sometimes do not agree with you but you are obviously a thinking man so it would be wise to at listen to what you say.
As far as predictions go, most are wrong by everyone who makes them. I admit I am the worst at predictions. Some people make accurate predictions, either by blind chance or research and analysis.
 

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
Yes I was constantly mocked for my dire predictions.

It can be looked at many different ways ... even a broken clock is correct twice a day and eventually all things happen at least once.

But the truth is that people win because other people lose and vice versa.

The new rich (neuvo riche) grew during the Great Depression. Not everyone crashes at the same time. Being willing to take a loss can mean huge gains in the near term and/or long term.

It is all in whether you have the stomach and the resources for the ride ahead of you.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
First the time scale is over two years; this will not be over with in a couple of days or weeks.

No market goes either straight up or straight down. It's more like three steps forward then one step back.

Many people believe in crazy conspiracy theories.

The historical scale of this event is mind blowing.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
First the time scale is over two years; this will not be over with in a couple of days or weeks.

No market goes either straight up or straight down. It's more like three steps forward then one step back.

Many people believe in crazy conspiracy theories.

The historical scale of this event is mind blowing.

"The historical scale of this event is mind blowing"...

..

know this...the unfolding of earth shattering historical events happens from time to time....I would compare what's happening now to the FALL OF ROME ....double time.
 

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
First the time scale is over two years; this will not be over with in a couple of days or weeks.

No market goes either straight up or straight down. It's more like three steps forward then one step back.

Many people believe in crazy conspiracy theories.

The historical scale of this event is mind blowing.

Now this I can get behind as a serious contender for what is actually going to happen. But just like in decades passed, we'll have to factor in war and how that will affect the timeline.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
First the time scale is over two years; this will not be over with in a couple of days or weeks.

No market goes either straight up or straight down. It's more like three steps forward then one step back.

Many people believe in crazy conspiracy theories.

The historical scale of this event is mind blowing.

You are meandering here...
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It can be looked at many different ways ... even a broken clock is correct twice a day and eventually all things happen at least once.

But the truth is that people win because other people lose and vice versa.

The new rich (neuvo riche) grew during the Great Depression. Not everyone crashes at the same time. Being willing to take a loss can mean huge gains in the near term and/or long term.

It is all in whether you have the stomach and the resources for the ride ahead of you.

Yes, a very few smart traders made a fortune during the 1929 to 1932 crash, but you need to know what to own and what to avoid.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The market has smashed through the first support level, increasing the odds of a Major Bear market starting.

At this posting, Dow down over 700 points or over 2 percent.

Will the second level hold?

Presently I am looking for some Bullish support at around the second figure BUT it will NOT hold for long.
 

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
One day is not going to make or break the markets. But continued down days will have an effect on many investors. It might become a self-feeding downward spiral.
 

Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
Yes, a very few smart traders made a fortune during the 1929 to 1932 crash, but you need to know what to own and what to avoid.

It wasn't just that. You have to know what to buy, sell, and hold in hard goods. And/or how to be a middle man and then access future "riches" by buying what others are selling now. I've toured a lot of really nice homes that were decorated with stuff the wife bought from others during hard times. People would come to the back door with their heirlooms to sell. Give them a fair price for something basically worthless during that period and down the road you look like a freakin' Rockefeller. Of course there will always be those that say you gained your wealth by being "unfair" to others or taking advantage of someone down on their luck. Gonna have to decide how you are going to look at surviving.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
It wasn't just that. You have to know what to buy, sell, and hold in hard goods. And/or how to be a middle man and then access future "riches" by buying what others are selling now. I've toured a lot of really nice homes that were decorated with stuff the wife bought from others during hard times. People would come to the back door with their heirlooms to sell. Give them a fair price for something basically worthless during that period and down the road you look like a freakin' Rockefeller. Of course there will always be those that say you gained your wealth by being "unfair" to others or taking advantage of someone down on their luck. Gonna have to decide how you are going to look at surviving.

Furnish your crib with expensive heirlooms. Yep that is the way to go
 

Steel Chips

Veteran Member
The market has smashed through the first support level, increasing the odds of a Major Bear market starting.

At this posting, Dow down over 700 points or over 2 percent.

Will the second level hold?

I would expect the 200 point gap created this morning in the Dow to be filled. A rally up to around 36K or less is possible, forming the lower right shoulder of a head and shoulders chart formation. A very bearish condition. If it falls from there and takes out today's low it might be the beginning of the Grand Super Cycle (Elliott). Of course, if it takes out the recent high near 37K, the bull market continues, along with climbing the wall of worry.

Note that I don't own any stocks, this is not financial advice and don't have a dog in the hunt.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
I'm totally out right now except for some mining stocks that I believe in as the companies are sound and actually produce something. But I'm old school and think that a company should actually produce something and be profitable to buy their stock and I have to believe in it myself or I won't own it.

And I was able to get totally out of dollar denominated assets when I reached 59 and a half a few weeks ago and cashed out my 401-K and I have a lot of shiny metallic objects on the way. Never thought I would be able to get out in time so color me blessed and thankful!!
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I watch a movie about a nuke war between Russia and the US and Britain set in 1983 last night. The movie is called "Threads" and is free to watch on YouTube. I highly recommend it but it is not for the faint in heart. It's about 2 hours long.


Seriously depressing movie.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The second and lower support was taken out.

What followed is a very minor counter wave up.

It's entirely possible for prices to churn for a few days or even a week before resuming the decline.

But the market is headed down.

Next downward Dow point objective is 29,794.
 
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hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I read an article yesterday where the guy thought there might be a minor bonce this week but like
von Koehler , this guy thought the market will continue to fall. I agree
 

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
And, make sure that future laws have sunset provisions.


intothegoodnight

Whereas 90%+ of today’s “laws” have as their express underlying intent a generation of revenue into the coffers of Federal Reserve stockholders........

......is there not a simpler, more all-encompassing solution ?

:hmm:
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
First line of defense for the Bulls is at Dow 34,006 or (c) (iv).

If that breaks next point of support is at Dow 33,271 or (c) (ii).

If both are breached, odds are 80/20 that the "mother of all" Bear markets has begun.

The MOTHER of all bear markets started (in earnest)when the AI inspired algo's kicked in and shaved a thousand point loss into a small gain.
 
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