WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
The United States Factor in Taiwan’s Security
(snip)
Reliance on the United States has been the constant element of Taiwan’s security strategy. The Taiwan Relations Act provided Taipei confidence in the United States even after the termination of the U.S.-ROC mutual defense treaty. On the American side of the coin, concern for Taiwan’s security has lasted through several administrations due to the political support Taiwan enjoys in the United States and the knowledge that Asian allies and partners treat Taiwan as a larger litmus test of U.S. resolve. Finally, Beijing was long discouraged from attacking Taiwan because of the risk that capable U.S. armed forces would intervene to protect Taiwan.

Washington does not, however, explicitly commit itself to Taiwan’s defense. To do so would only unnecessarily complicate relations with China. Instead U.S. officials cite the Taiwan Relations Act, speak in general terms about Washington’s “abiding interest” in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and reiterate opposition to either side’s unilaterally changing the status quo—without saying how the United States would respond to such an attempt. Despite the ambiguity of public American rhetoric, the capabilities that the PRC has acquired to complicate any U.S. intervention suggest that it assumes the United States will in fact act to defend Taiwan. Beijing looks at both American words and deeds to assess its intentions.

Thank you!
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
War Games: The Battle For Taiwan
May 13, 2022


RT: 26.54 minutes

Meet the Press takes over the NBC News Washington Bureau to stage a full-day war game between the U.S. and China

My comments

1 In this war game China strikes, Guam, Hawaii right from the get-go and US bases in Japan and Australia.
2 Later China strikes by long range missiles Alaska, and California.

3 In this war game, North Korea and Russia were not involved.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
War Games: The Battle For Taiwan
May 13, 2022


RT: 26.54 minutes

Meet the Press takes over the NBC News Washington Bureau to stage a full-day war game between the U.S. and China

My comments

1 In this war game China strikes, Guam, Hawaii right from the get-go and US bases in Japan and Australia.
2 Later China strikes by long range missiles Alaska, and California.

3 In this war game, North Korea and Russia were not involved.
That nuclear weapons weren't even mentioned until the middle of this "simulation" was particularly "interesting" as was the end discussion.

Also it wasn't mentioned that in striking Australia, a Commonwealth Nation, the UK and it's nuclear weapons would be placed in play as well.

ETA: For that matter what wasn't brought up is that strikes upon US sovereign territory brings NATO into the mix as well, regardless as to the initial source of the conflict, along with both French and UK nuclear forces.
 
Last edited:

Techwreck

Veteran Member
Dr. Stacy Pettijohn, Gamemaster, should learn to correctly pronounce 'nuclear'.
Kind of takes away from her title of "expert".
But it is NBC, so she's probably an expert out of work actress.
 

Oreally

Veteran Member
War Games: The Battle For Taiwan
May 13, 2022


RT: 26.54 minutes

Meet the Press takes over the NBC News Washington Bureau to stage a full-day war game between the U.S. and China

My comments

1 In this war game China strikes, Guam, Hawaii right from the get-go and US bases in Japan and Australia.
2 Later China strikes by long range missiles Alaska, and California.

3 In this war game, North Korea and Russia were not involved.

what a totally worthless steaming pile of b.s.

i f'ing hate this idiot chuck todd.

literally nothing that this exercise seems to demonstrate is likely to unfold the way they have 'war gamed' it. nothing.

and the date... 5 years from now. . .?

i guess it is some sort of messaging to the masses still listening to NBC
 

Babs

Veteran Member
Top Taiwan Missile Official Found Dead in Hotel Room After Heart Attack

A top Taiwanese missile official was found dead in a hotel room on Saturday morning after suffering a heart attack, according to the country's official Central News Agency (CNA).
Ou Yang Li-hsing was deputy head of the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, which is owned by the Taiwanese military and is the defense ministry's research and development unit.
Taiwanese authorities said there was no sign of an "intrusion" in the hotel room in southern Taiwan where the 57-year-old died, according to CNA. He was in charge of supervising various missile production projects.
Ou Yang's family said he had a history of heart problems and also had a cardiac stent.

His death comes amid increased tensions between Taiwan and China following Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island, which China considers part of its sovereign territory.
China has been carrying out live-fire military drills near Taiwan as part of its response to Pelosi's visit, which the Chinese government strongly condemned.
Ou Yang had taken up the role at the military research and development unit earlier this year as the organization aims to more than double its missile production capacity to around 500 in 2022.
That increase in production capacity is reportedly in response to what Taiwan views as a growing military threat from China. Chinese forces have been conducting live-fire exercises near the island following Pelosi's visit.

Ou Yang was on a business trip to southern county of Pingtung at the time of his death.
Taiwan's Apple Daily reported on Saturday that Ou Yang's staff knocked on his hotel room and when he did not answer, hotel staff opened the door and found him dead. Police attended the scene and reviewed security footage but found no evidence of an intrusion.
Newsweek has asked the government of Taiwan for comment.
On Friday, the Taiwanese Defense Ministry said that Chinese ships and warplanes had crossed the mid-line of the Taiwan Strait as part of those drills. The mid-line is considered an unofficial buffer zone between China and Taiwan.
 

jward

passin' thru
John Culver
@JohnCulver689


Fmr National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, retired CIA analyst. Atlantic Council Senior Fellow. Views solely my own. Like/retweets are not an endorsement.

John Culver
@JohnCulver689

7h

China's military exercises vs Taiwan set new precedents, but it's important to note what they have NOT done, at least yet. So far, based on TW & JP gov reporting, the PLA has not:

-- violated 12NM sea/air around Taiwan
-- Overflown the island with aircraft (more) 1/3
--Otherwise compelled TW to consider shooting first.
-- Mobilized Coast Guard or Maritime Militia, which would be key for actual blockade.
-- Marshaled major amphibious lift, including RO/ROs PLA did multiple ops over Strait centerline, but all seem north & south, not in center.

This could be viewed as restraint on China's part, but also are escalation steps they've reserved to show even great threat/seriousness *next time*. These exercises likely have been an intelligence bonanza for all concerned, and a status check on PLA joint Ness, or lack of it.
 

northern watch

Has No Life - Lives on TB
That nuclear weapons weren't even mentioned until the middle of this "simulation" was particularly "interesting" as was the end discussion.

Also it wasn't mentioned that in striking Australia, a Commonwealth Nation, the UK and it's nuclear weapons would be placed in play as well.

ETA: For that matter what wasn't brought up is that strikes upon US sovereign territory brings NATO into the mix as well, regardless as to the initial source of the conflict, along with both French and UK nuclear forces.
For that matter what wasn't brought up is that strikes upon US sovereign territory brings NATO into the mix as well, regardless as to the initial source of the conflict, along with both French and UK nuclear forces.

That is a very good point!
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
John Culver
@JohnCulver689


Fmr National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, retired CIA analyst. Atlantic Council Senior Fellow. Views solely my own. Like/retweets are not an endorsement.

John Culver
@JohnCulver689

7h

China's military exercises vs Taiwan set new precedents, but it's important to note what they have NOT done, at least yet. So far, based on TW & JP gov reporting, the PLA has not:

-- violated 12NM sea/air around Taiwan
-- Overflown the island with aircraft (more) 1/3
--Otherwise compelled TW to consider shooting first.
-- Mobilized Coast Guard or Maritime Militia, which would be key for actual blockade.
-- Marshaled major amphibious lift, including RO/ROs PLA did multiple ops over Strait centerline, but all seem north & south, not in center.

This could be viewed as restraint on China's part, but also are escalation steps they've reserved to show even great threat/seriousness *next time*. These exercises likely have been an intelligence bonanza for all concerned, and a status check on PLA joint Ness, or lack of it.
If we get through the month of August without the real shooting starting I'll be surprised....
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
This is an hour and a half long

Podcast cover

BREAKING: China Mobilizing for Taiwan Invasion (Jeff Nyquist Interview)

LIVE AT 3PM ET: As Pelosi visits Taiwan as part of her Asia tour, China is threatening to shoot down her plane and attack Taiwan in retaliation. As we speak, troops, missiles, and tanks are rolling through Fujian province—right along the Taiwan strait—and from all appearances, China is mobilizing for all out war. Joining me today is Jeff Nyquist to help us understand what comes next, and how this will affect America. Today’s show is brought to you by Rise.TV, where it’s our mission to awaken, uplift, and unite America—one show at a time.Get your Free Trial of Rise.TV: RISE TV WATCH NOW ON RUMBLE : BREAKING: China Mobilizing for Taiwan Invasion (Jeff Nyquist Interview) Follow Man in America on Telegram: Man in America To Learn About Investing In Gold Visit: Gold and Silver Guide (new) | Noble Gold or call 877-646-5347Save up to 66%: at Home Page using Promo Code MAN
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1hr 48mins
3 Aug 2022
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Attachments

jward

passin' thru
Analysis: What are amphibious capabilities of China armed forces in case of Taiwan invasion
Alain Henry de Frahan

13-16 minutes



US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan triggered Beijing’s anger, which takes the form of unprecedented military exercises around and even partly inside Taiwan's naval waters and air space. Let us focus on the amphibious capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army to actually take part in an invasion of Taiwan.
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Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

ZTD-05 and ZBD-05 amphibious armored vehicles of the PLA Marine Corps in a training exercise on March 13, 2022 (Picture source: eng.chinamil.com.cn - Li Weike)
According to the China Military Power report issued in 2019 by the Defense Intelligence Agency, China’s anticipation that foreign forces would intervene in a Taiwan scenario led the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop a range of systems to deter and deny foreign regional force projection. The implementation of former president Hu Jintao’s New Historic Missions in 2004 led to the incremental expansion of the military’s modernization priorities to develop a PLA capable of operating in new domains and at increasing distances from the mainland.
During this modernization process, the report explains, PLA ground, air, naval, and missile forces have become increasingly able to project power during peacetime and in the event of regional conflicts. Beijing almost certainly will use this growing ability to project power to bolster international perceptions of its role as a regional power and global stakeholder. Although Beijing states that its intent is to serve as a stabilizing force regionally, in practice the PLA’s actions frequently result in increased tensions. Since 2012, Beijing has routinely challenged Tokyo’s Senkaku Island claims in the East China Sea. China’s Coast Guard frequently conducts incursions into the contiguous zone surrounding the islands to further China’s claims, while its Navy operates around the claims to enforce administration. The PLA has expanded and militarized China’s outposts in the South China Sea, and China’s Coast Guard, backed by the PLAN, commonly harasses Philippine and Vietnamese ships in the region.
Examples of incremental improvements to PLA power projection in the region are readily found in annual military exercises and operations. For instance, in 2015 the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) carried out four exercise training missions past the first island chain through the Bashi Channel, the northernmost passage of the Luzon Strait, and through the Miyako Strait closer to Japan. The Miyako Strait flights were 1,500 kilometers from Guam, within range of the PLAAF’s CJ-20 air-launched land-attack cruise missile (LACM). Also in 2015, the PLAAF began flying the H-6K medium-range bomber, the PLAAF’s first aircraft capable of conducting strikes on the U.S. island of Guam (with air-launched LACMs like the CJ-20), past the first island chain into the western Pacific.
China is also developing new capabilities that enhance Beijing’s ability to project power. In September 2016, then-PLAAF Commander Gen. Ma Xiaotian confirmed for the first time that the LAAF was developing a new long-range bomber that would undoubtedly exceed the range and capabilities of the H-6K. Although the H-6K began flying with LACMs, this Chinese-built airframe is the
10th design variant of the Soviet Tu-16, which began flying in 1952. In 2016, China and Ukraine agreed to restart production of the world’s largest transport aircraft, the An-225, which is capable of carrying a world-record payload of nearly 254 tons. China expected the first An-225 to be delivered and operational by 2019, which didn’t actually happen. If used by the military, such a capability would facilitate the PLA’s global reach. The last An-225 was destroyed at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022.
In addition to land-based aircraft, China is currently increasing its fleet of domestically designed and produced aircraft carriers. Beijing is assumed to use the carrier to project power throughout the South China Sea and possibly into the Indian Ocean.
Taiwan will be reunited with mainland China, by force if necessary, said Xi Jinping
Power Projection and Expeditionary Operations Beijing’s longstanding interest to eventually compel Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland and deter any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence has served as the primary driver for China’s military modernization.
Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations to plan and implement, requiring air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and trigger international intervention. These stresses, combined with PLA’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.
The PLA is capable of attempting various amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. With few overt military preparations beyond routine training, the PRC could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba. A PLA invasion of a medium-sized, better-defended island such as Matsu or Jinmen is within the PLA’s capabilities. Such an invasion would demonstrate military capability, political resolve, and achieve tangible territorial gain while simultaneously showing some measure of restraint. However, this kind of operation involves significant, and possibly prohibitive, political risk because it could galvanize pro-independence sentiment on Taiwan and generate powerful international opposition. The unprecedented multidomain exercice started by the Chinese forces around and partly above Taiwan’s territory on August 3 will give the answer.
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

PLA launches military drills around the island of Taiwan (Graphic: Xu Zihe/GT)
PLA’s Marine amphibious vehicles involved

A video going viral on social media shows tanks on the beaches of Xiamen city, which lies just across the strait from Taiwan. The video posted on Reddit shows beachgoers surrounded by a row of tanks that are moving ahead. A resident of Xiamen told South China Morning Post (SCMP) that he had seen a few dozen military vehicles of various types roll into the city and head towards its main ring road since Sunday, August 31. Chen Jinhuo, the owner of a restaurant, added that "about a hundred" armored vehicles are parked on the main ring road, NDTV reports.The Type 05 amphibious armored vehicle is a family of amphibious tracked armored fighting vehicles developed in the early 2000s by Norinco, led by chief designer Chen Pengfei, for the People's Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps. Two variants of the vehicle family was developed first, the infantry fighting variant ZBD-05, and assault gun/light tank variant ZTD-05. ZBD-05 vehicles were showcased in military parades of 2009 and 2015.
The Type 05 amphibious infantry fighting vehicle uses a planing hull propelled by two water jets, which is a considerable improvement over a similar type of vehicle like the AAV7A1 amphibious assault vehicle (AAV).
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

ZTD-05 attached to a brigade under the 73th Group Army leaving a landing ship, May 26, 2021 (Picture source: eng.chinamil.com.cn - Lin Jiayu)
The ZTD-05 assault vehicle variant replaces the obsolete Type 63A amphibious tank introduced in the late 1990s. Research and development effort is reflected on the capable design. The vehicle implicates China is determined to secure advanced amphibious assault capabilities
Mobility
The Type 05 features a flat hull, extendable bow, with six retractable road wheels on each side and front/rear rollers. The vehicle's design results in significantly reduced drag. The angle of the bow changes adaptively according to the current displacement speedometer so that fluid resistance can always be kept at the lowest, optimal level.
The ZBD-05 is fully amphibious and propelled by two large water jets mounted to the rear side of the hull. In the water, the engine is able to generate 1,475 horsepower as well as switch to land mode with only 550 horsepower. The vehicle can run at a maximum road speed of 65 km/h and 30 km/h in the water. It has a maximum cruising range of 500 km and can negotiate a gradient of 60 % and a side slope of 30%. It can cross a vertical obstacle of 0.7 m and a trench of 2m.
Armament
ZTD-05 assaults vehicle armed with 105mm rifled gun seen at Joint Sea-2016 military exercises
The Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) variant, ZBD-05, is built to support infantry and amphibious operations. The 3-man crew consists of the driver positioned front-left of the turret, with the commander and gunner occupying the turret. The vehicle features Za PT-99 30mm cannon turret with an HJ-73C ATGM rail launcher, capable of penetrating more than 800mm RHA after ERA. The vehicle can carry 7 to 8 (one squad) armed infantry in its passenger compartment at the rear.
The Assault Vehicle (light tank) variant, ZTD-05, is armed with a fully stabilized ZPL-98A 105mm rifled gun.[8] The ZTD-05 assault vehicle variant has a crew of four, including a loader.[9] The type of APFSDS round fitted on ZTD-05 is the DTC02-105 armor piercing fin stabilized discarding sabot based on BTA-2 105mm APFSDS, capable of penetrating 600mm RHA at 2,000 meters. The rifled gun is also capable of launching laser-guided beam-riding missiles. The gun is loaded manually with a fire rate of 6 to 8 rounds per minute with 36 rounds of ammo reserve. ZTD-05's turret shares a similar layout to the ZTL-11 assault vehicle. Secondary weapons for both variants include a Type 86 7.62mm coaxially mounted machine gun. ZTD-15 features a QJC-88 12.7mm anti-aircraft machine gun mounted on the roof of the turret near the loader.
Fire control
Accuracy and precision are attained by a computerized fire-control system (FCS) on both ZBD-05 and ZTD-05. The fire control system includes a fire-control ballistic computer, laser rangefinder, two-plane stabilization, and daylight/infrared gunner sight with a passive night vision channel. Commander has access to day/night independent thermal sight with hunter-killer (commander override) capability.
Type 05 is fitted with a battle management system, command and control system, and digital map interface. All the necessary information is displayed on screens to the driver, commander, and gunner. ZTD-05 is equipped with a laser designator for beam-riding SACLOS applications, and the loader position is also fitted with an independent periscope.
Protection
The vehicle has satellite navigation, fire suppression system, NBC protection system, day/night thermal vision, ensuring a high degree of survivability for the crew. The hull is constructed with aluminum alloy chassis with additional steel glacis plates. Aluminum alloy reduces weight and provides protection against small arms rounds and shell splatter, while the steel plates can stop 12.7mm rounds. The turret is constructed of all-welded steel armor with composite plates, which gives all-around protection against 12.7mm rounds and shell splinters. The front face of the turret is claimed to stop 25mm AP round at 1,000 meters (3,300 ft). The upper part of the suspension is protected by armor plates.
Both ZBD-05 and ZTD-05 are fitted with laser warning receivers, which are connected to 2 sets of 4-barrel smoke grenade launchers. The storage area around the aft section double as slat armor.
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

ZBD-05 of PLA 73rd Group Army embarking in landing ship, 9-8-2021 (Picture source: eng.chinamil.com.cn - Xu Mingzhang)
Variants

* Type 05 (ZTD-05 or ZLT-05) Amphibious Assault Vehicle
The assault gun variant is armed with a ZPL98A 105mm low-recoil rifled gun, a 7.62mm coaxial machine gun, and a QJC-88 12.7mm anti-aircraft machine gun. An improved variant, designated ZLT-05A, with an upgraded computer system and digital terminals accessible for the driver, gunner, and commander.
* Type 05 (ZBD-05) Amphibious Infantry Fighting Vehicle
The infantry fighting vehicle variant is armed with a ZPT-99 30mm autocannon, a 7.62mm coaxial machine gun, and * HJ-73C anti-tank missiles.
* Type 05 (ZSD-05) Amphibious Armored Personal Carrier
The armored personal carrier variant is armed with a plate-protected 12.7mm heavy machine gun turret.
* Type 05 Amphibious Armored Reconnaissance Vehicle
The Armoured reconnaissance variant is equipped with a telescopic mast with an electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR) system, a laser range finder, and an X-band radar. The variant has a 12.7 mm heavy machine gun turret for defense.
* Type 05 Amphibious Armored Command Vehicle
The mobile command and control variant is equipped with a field communication and battle management system.
* Type 05 Amphibious Armored Recovery Vehicle
The armored recovery vehicle variant is equipped with a crane and a hydraulic winch for emergency vehicle recovery. An additional handrail is installed on the top for ease of operation in the water.
* Type 05 Assault Breach Vehicle
The mine clearance assaults vehicle variants. It is equipped with a mine plow, mine detection device, and rocket-projected mine-clearing line charge (MICLIC).
* Type 05 Amphibious Armored Ambulance
Armored ambulance variant based on Type 05 command vehicle chassis, providing frontline medical support and evacuation. The armored ambulance features an emergency ventilator, air conditioning, monitoring, and shock-absorbing double bunk beds.
* VN16
Modified export variants of the ZTD-05.
* VN18
Modified export variants of the ZBD-05.
* VS25
Modified export variants of the Type 05 Amphibious Armored Recovery Vehicle
Army Recognition Global Defense and Security news

Left: Type 05 Assault Breach Vehicle. Right: ZBD-05 (Picture source: eng.chinamil.com.cn - Xu Mingzhang)
 
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