WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

vector7

Dot Collector
Russia: We fully support China – PLA gathers blood plasma & loads landing craft
PLA: We are waiting for orders for military engagement"
When America goes to war with China Russia will strike without warning. The Russian president began to speak to the Chinese one. "I will give you the land with all the people, but you must free Taiwan of the Americans. " Do not fear, we will attack them from behind." ( Dimitri Duduman )
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
NOT really an ORBAT but a good discussion on ROC "plans" and capabilities (David Axe is a SOLID .mil analyst and writer.)

If China Invades Taiwan, Taipei Plans To Throw A Thousand Tanks At The Beachhead (forbes.com)

AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
If China Invades Taiwan, Taipei Plans To Throw A Thousand Tanks At The Beachhead
David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
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Dec 9, 2020,08:00am EST

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uncaptioned

Taiwanese army M-60s during a 2017 exercise.
TAIWANESE ARMY
If China invades Taiwan and succeeds in landing troops on the island country’s southwestern beaches, expect brutal tank battles to help decide the outcome.

The Taiwanese army on paper possesses around 1,200 main battle tanks—480 American-made M-60A3s plus 450 CM-11s and 250 CM-12s. The CM-11 pairs a modified M-48 turret with an M-60 chassis. The CM-12 is an M-48 with the same modified turret as the CM-11.


These tanks are old. The youngest, the M-60s, date from the 1970s. Taipei recently bought 108 new M-1s from the United States for $1.3 billion in order to begin replacing some of its oldest and weariest tanks.

The first M-1 isn’t due to arrive until 2023. And once all hundred-or-so of the new tanks are in service, the Republic of China army still will possess a thousand aged tanks.

But their age might not matter. Taiwanese army doctrine calls for heavy armor to strike back against Chinese invasion troops landing on Taiwan’s beaches. Those Chinese troops—the first wave, especially—likely would be lightly armed.
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Any tank, no matter how geriatric, would pose a deadly threat to unprotected Chinese infantry clinging to a narrow beachhead.
For that reason, expect the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to do its best to land its own armor with the early waves of an invasion force. The PLA needs tanks on the beaches in order to defend against Taiwan’s own counterattacking tanks.
Tank operations actually would begin before Chinese troops touched dry land. “Taiwanese army and marine units are likely to disperse their tanks to coastal hide-sites prior to the invasion,” said Ian Easton, a Taiwan expert with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia.
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Taipei’s goal, during this phase of a Chinese attack, is to preserve its forces in the face of potentially devastating bombardment by the PLA Rocket Force’s ballistic missiles.
The odds are good that many of Taiwan’s tanks would survive. “There is an almost limitless supply of potential hiding places along Taiwan's coast: tunnels, caves, bridge underbellies, airport hangars and empty factories,” Easton noted.

“Some tanks would likely come into action as soon as the enemy began landing,” Easton added. “Others would be held in reserve for crushing and decisive counterattacks. Some may be held back for the defense of urban centers like downtown Taipei. While we tend to think of tanks fighting solely in desolate deserts, historically tanks have often been the deciding factor in urban battles.”
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Forbes Bu
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Taiwanese army CM-11s during a 2015 exercise.
CHINESE INTERNET
On day one, Taiwanese forces would hold the advantage on the ground. “For a finite period of time, they will greatly out-number and out-gun the PLA amphibious forces landing along the coast at beaches, airport tarmacs and ports,” Easton noted.
The Chinese army’s own armor could help mitigate this disadvantage. “The PLA will try to get as many tanks ashore as quickly as they can,” Easton explained.
That’s easier said than done, of course. A modern main battle tank might weigh as much as 70 tons. That’s a heavy load for a shallow-draught ship.
Fortunately for China, it has access to one of the world’s largest merchant fleets. “In wartime the PLA plans to mobilize China's entire maritime shipping fleet, commandeering every single vessel that can make the trip across the Taiwan Strait, which is potentially tens of thousands of ships,” Easton said.
“Many of those vessels will likely serve as decoys, expendable targets soaking up Taiwanese mines, obstacles and coastal fires ... Those could be followed by wave after wave of actual amphibious ships, including a considerable number of ostensibly civilian roll-on/roll-off ships and ferries that can transport tanks.”
But the first wave of PLA forces likely would include light amphibious tanks that can swim ashore under their own power—and nothing heavier. These thinly-armored vehicles are no match even for Taiwan’s oldest tanks.
PLA light armor “could be over-matched and devastated if the Taiwanese can keep enough of their main battle tanks dispersed and hidden until the critical moment arrives for them to launch crushing localized counterattacks,” Easton said.
“One of the other key variables in such a scenario is which side is able to keep attack helicopters and attack drones overhead to fire against ground targets,” Easton said. Helicopters and drones targeting tanks’ thin top armor could tilt the balance of heavy forces in the bloody early hours of a war over Taiwan.
Any way you cut it, the fight over Taiwan’s beaches is likely to involve heavy forces targeting light forces—a mismatch that could result in extreme violence and bloodshed, and which could set the stage for the grueling days and weeks that would follow a Chinese landing.
“This is going to be a complex struggle with staggering losses,” Easton said.

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colonel holman

Veteran Member
All the above battle scenarios make not mention of the potential effects of supportive actions from US battle groups plus our allies in the area (Japan, SK, Philippines, Australia). Will PLA pre-empt against Guam, Diego Garcia, maybe even Pearl Harbor (which would be a strike against US homeland)? Or will US simply stand down and let the two Chinas engage between themselves?

If we and allies engage in the defence of Taiwan, that would change the metrics bigtime. But sinking of a carrier could shut us and allies down if US decides to back down in the face of losing such equipment and manpower. And all that is based on conventional weapons. If China takes out bases in Japan, SK, Philippines, Guam, Diego G, they would likely have to use nukes. Same with a carrier battle group. Nobody can assume PLA will be “reasonable“ about not going to nukes.

It will go one extreme or the other: We stand down and let PRC eat Taiwan… or we go all in with the big guns, which will of course get out of hand in a hurry.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
All the above battle scenarios make not mention of the potential effects of supportive actions from US battle groups plus our allies in the area (Japan, SK, Philippines, Australia). Will PLA pre-empt against Guam, Diego Garcia, maybe even Pearl Harbor (which would be a strike against US homeland)? Or will US simply stand down and let the two Chinas engage between themselves?

If we and allies engage in the defence of Taiwan, that would change the metrics bigtime. But sinking of a carrier could shut us and allies down if US decides to back down in the face of losing such equipment and manpower. And all that is based on conventional weapons. If China takes out bases in Japan, SK, Philippines, Guam, Diego G, they would likely have to use nukes. Same with a carrier battle group. Nobody can assume PLA will be “reasonable“ about not going to nukes.

It will go one extreme or the other: We stand down and let PRC eat Taiwan… or we go all in with the big guns, which will of course get out of hand in a hurry.

And the assumptions upon CCP "reasonableness" levels just about bakes in a full strike upon both CCP/PLA and North Korean strategic assets as a "stop cut" the moment it looks like things are escalating beyond an air engagement. Anyone advocating slow escalation would probably be kicked out of the meeting by the "adults".
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
This progression should look damn familiar to you, Oreally. Only it's suddenly running in a MUCH FASTER rate (time warp??) than you watched in Uke-land.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
EMERGENCY- China begins military operations: Civil defense sirens sound – PLA encircles Taiwan – In ICBM DF-5 dispersal sites

By Vassilis Kapoulas
02/08/2022 - 19:31
War News 24 / 7


EMERGENCY- China begins military operations: Civil defense sirens sound – PLA encircles Taiwan – In ICBM DF-5 dispersal sites


The plane of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, landed a short while ago in Taiwan. The region has now entered an irreversible course with the US completely destroying relations with China by making the greatest gift to Russia.

In the next few days, China's credibility is being judged. The Chinese will wait for Pelosi to withdraw and launch a military offensive against a small Taiwanese island. Chinese military sources said there would be a response.

If there is no military response, China loses. Diplomatically and militarily it will have suffered a great defeat.

Responding to a tweet saying nothing happened, China's ambassador to Pakistan said "wait and you'll see!"

War preparations in China continue. Videos you will see show the sounds of civil defense sirens in areas of SE China located opposite Taiwan.

China's Defense Ministry announced that "the PLA is launching targeted military operations to counter Pelosi's visit to the island of Taiwan and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

They are encircling Taiwan...

Soon after, the PLA announced live-fire exercises around Taiwan between Thursday and Sunday, asking ships and aircraft to avoid these areas.

The statement by China's Eastern Military Command reads:

"We will conduct joint naval and air exercises in the airspace north, southwest and southeast of the island of Taiwan.

We will carry out long-range shots in the Taiwan Strait, these military operations are aimed at the recent ACTIONS of the US on the issue of Taiwan. The PRC will also carry out shots in the waters of the east coast of the island of Taiwan."


According to the NAVTEX map, China is encircling Taiwan by deploying forces to six points around the island.

China had done the same in 1995/1996 during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.

Reports indicate that the PLA military exercises will be conducted with live fire within Taiwan's sovereign territorial waters (blue line). These are China's most provocative moves in decades.

China's Maritime Security Command said that from August 3 to 5, exercises with real ammunition will be held from 6:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. every day.

According to Russian sources, the Chinese army is taking out intercontinental nuclear missiles in dispersal areas.

In the video intercontinental DF5 missiles with an estimated range of 12,000-15,000 kilometers and the ability to transport 3-8 nuclear warheads are transferred to dispersal sites. Apparently Beijing wanted to send a message to the US

Taiwan's television reported the introduction of the second level of combat readiness in the country. In combination there are five levels.

Spokesman Li-Fang Sun confirmed that "no Su-35 has crossed the Taiwan Strait", but acknowledged that other PLA aircraft did so.

Pelosi landed in Taiwan

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan despite China's threats.

Shortly after 22.45 (local time) the "SPAR19" aircraft carrying the speaker of the US House of Representatives arrived at Taipei's Songshan Airport, which also hosts a military base.

The American politician is the highest U.S. official to visit Taiwan in the past 25 years, which China considers a breakaway province.

In a post immediately after her arrival in Taipei, Nancy Pelosi underlined the unwavering U.S. commitment to supporting the Republic of Taiwan.

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent a clear message for China, also stressing that the U.S. commitment to a democratic Taiwan is more important than ever.

"The visit of our Congressional delegation to Taiwan honors America's unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan's vibrant democracy," she said, adding in her statement shortly after the plane carrying it landed.

"America's solidarity with Taiwan's 23 million people is more important today than ever, as the world is faced with a choice between autocracy and democracy," he said.

As soon as Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei, she posted the following statement on Twitter:

"The visit of our delegation to Taiwan honors America's unwavering commitment to support the living Republic of Taiwan.


Our discussions with the Taiwanese leadership confirm our support for our partner and promote our shared interests, including the promotion of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

America's solidarity with Taiwan's 23 million people is now more important than ever, as the world is faced with a choice between autocracy and democracy.

Our visit is one of the many congressional representations in Taiwan — and in no way contradicts the long-standing policy of the United States, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the joint U.S.-China communiqués, and the Six Assurances."


China embargo on Taiwan

In addition to stern warnings about the potential consequences of Pelosi's visit in the near future, Beijing has also escalated the implementation of countermeasures in all fields in order to suffocate Taiwan's population of 23 million.

In particular, China informally imposed an embargo, cancelling its domestic imports to at least 100 taiwanese companies in order to create hotbeds of economic crisis. Among the products are consumer items, such as cookies and sweets.

Pelosi's visit resulted in an almost commercial blockade being imposed on the island, as the items banned by Beijing include:

· Vegetables

· Fruit

· Cookies

· Baby food

· Cake

· Drinks

· Fresh seafood

which were put on hold by the Chinese authorities in a "wait-and-see" regime. So far, more than 2,000 products have been blacklisted, which is about 2/3 of the 3,228 species Taiwan exports to the People's Republic of China, according to an assessment by Nikkei Asia.

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EMERGENCY- China begins military operations: Civil defense sirens sound - PLA encircles Taiwan - In dispersal sites ICBM DF-5 - WarNews247
 

TheChrome

Contributing Member
Tucker Carlson and Douglas Macgreggor discussing Taiwan question

Douglas Macgreggor answers to the Tucker Carlson question ''Is USA in position to stage a war with China''
RT 2min
View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1554626871454797826?s=20&t=UIcs7w2xf6LOcD845efT_Q
I saw this interview, and I believe it is a false flag, just as the over estimation of Russia in the Ukraine conflict. War is like the game of poker, if you hold all the cards you "slow play" to make your opponent think you don't have a hand. This is what has been going on with the US/Britain for years, saying they are falling behind Russia and China in technology. This is nonsense, it is a calculated game to make people think they don't have the technology...but they have technology that probably will blow our mind if it is ever used. It's insane how far beyond Russia and China the US/Britain is as far as military. All you have to look at is stealth fighters. The US and It's Allies have more than 10 times the fifth generation fighters than Russia and China combined, and the US has already flown the 6th Generation NGAD.
 
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Russia offers assistance to China: PLA imposed a total blockade on Taiwan – Forces cross the "middle line" of the Straits – Hypersonic DF-17 and stealth J-20 were deployed
By Vassilis Kapoulas
04/08/2022 - 00:04
War News 24 / 7

Russia offers assistance to China: PLA imposed a total blockade on Taiwan – Forces cross the middle line of the Straits – Hypersonic DF-17 and stealth J-20 were deployed


The total blockade of Taiwan by forces of China's People's Liberation Army begins with Chinese analysts saying that this time "Chinese forces are crossing the "middle line" of the Taiwan Strait" which had not happened until now.
Peace "hangs by a thread" on the site. If China judges that the time has come, then it will strike. Its forces are stunted around Taiwan.

"The exercise is unprecedented as it is expected that conventional missiles will fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, PLA forces will enter the area at a distance of 12 nautical miles from the island, and the so-called middle line will cease to exist," Chinese sources said.

It is noteworthy that Russia offered to help China militarily, and even through the deputy chairman of the Federal Council for Foreign Relations. What help do the Russians mean? Obviously to put the operational plans in place and keep Japan's forces busy so that they do not get involved.

Chinese military sources, who also released videos, revealed that J-20 stealth fighters have taken off and DF-17 hypersonic missiles will also be used.

The video recorded flights of the J-20, Su-30MKK, Su-27SK, J-16 and flying tanker Xian Y-20 of the PLA Air Force over the provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian adjacent to the Taiwan Strait.


This is a pure rehearsal of attack.

Total blockade of Taiwan begins

THE PLA puts in place the NAVTEX of encirclement of Taiwan with the military forces starting exercises with real fire.

We recall that according to the NAVTEX map, China is encircling Taiwan by deploying forces to six points around the island.


Taiwan's Defense Ministry stressed today that "at some locations, Chinese military operations will reach 20 kilometers from Taiwan's coastline, based on the coordinates announced by the People's Liberation Army.

The drills are "an attempt to threaten our major ports and urban centers and to unilaterally undermine peace and stability in the periphery."

Latest information from Chinese media reports that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will conduct a series of military exercises with live fire from Thursday to Saturday in six different areas that surround the island from all directions.

Zhang Junshe, a senior researcher at the People's Liberation Army's Naval Research Academy, said the exercises include long-range artillery firing and conventional missile tests.

The Chinese military expert explained why the exercises begin two days after Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan.

According to international conventions, areas of military exercises must be disclosed three days in advance and 24 hours earlier in case of emergency.

"This is mainly to give enough time to domestic and foreign ships to evacuate the area as well as to the relevant civilian airlines to adjust their routes to avoid the areas. The move is aimed at avoiding injury to ordinary people during the exercises, showing the rational and responsible attitude of the PLA," Zhang noted.

Chinese adviser and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it clear wednesday that Pelosi's visit will not change the historic trend that Taiwan will return to China's arms. Wang, who is attending meetings on East Asian cooperation on a visit to Cambodia, told reporters that Pelosi's tour is a complete farce.

The reunification process is indeed accelerating, Zhang said, noting the unprecedentedly high level of real combat, strategy and influence of the upcoming joint exercises.

Where Chinese forces are deployed

The exercises are very close to the island of Taiwan.

-The exercise in the northwest of the island is around Pingtan Island in The Fujian Province of East China, the narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait.

-Exercise in this place can block the northern part of the straits.

-Two other exercises in the north of Taiwan can block the port of Keelung.

-The exercise in the east of the island directly targets the military bases in Hualien and Taitung.

-Exercise in the southeast of the island can effectively threaten Bashi. The latter in the southwest of the island is very close to the area of Kaohsiung and Zuoying.

"From the PLA's designated military exercise areas, PLA operations could form a complete blockade around the island of Taiwan, which means preventing the enemy from retreating and then hitting it," Zhang said.

Zhang noted that the PLA used to conduct exercises along the waters on the mainland, but this time the exercises cross the "middle line" of the Taiwan Strait claimed by the Taiwanese authorities.

"The aim of the exercises is to suppress and deter external forces and 'separatist forces' that intend to join forces and break up the country.

From the identification of the areas we can say that the goal of the exercises is to prevent and stop the intervention of external forces,"
Zhang noted.

The Russians ready to help Beijing!

"Russia is ready to provide the necessary assistance to China in the event of a military conflict between the latter and Taiwan. This is what the first deputy chairman of the Federal Council for Foreign Relations, Vladimir Dzhabarov, said on the air of a Russian TV channel.

"I see no reason to refuse help to the Chinese, but I would like this move with China to be bilateral, that is, for us to also receive some benefit from this cooperation," Dzhabarov said.

According to Dzhabarov, without Russian help, it will not be easy for China to confront the military power of the United States, which supports Taiwan

Russia, an ally of China, yesterday accused the US government of "destabilizing the world" and called Ms. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan a "pure provocation".

The visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is a deliberate attempt by Washington to irritate China, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said today.

"The U.S. aspires to prove to the whole world its impunity and to show its moral laxity." I do what I want to do" that's what they want to show.

"I see no other reason to cause such annoyance almost out of nowhere knowing full well what this means for the People's Republic of China," said Lavrov of Myanmar, which he is visiting.

Russia offers assistance to China: PLA imposed total blockade on Taiwan - Forces cross the "middle line" of the Straits - Hypersonic DF-17 and stealth J-20 were deployed - WarNews247
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Nancy Pelosi has left Taiwan. The real crisis may be just beginning
A trip intended to support a beleaguered democracy may end up tightening its encirclement

TOPSHOT - Visiting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (C) waves to journalists during her arrival at the Parliament in Taipei on August 3, 2022. (Photo by Sam Yeh / AFP) (Photo by SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images)


The Economist
August 3rd 2022
BEIJING, TAIPEI AND WASHINGTON, DC

For more than a decade, first as vice-president and now as president, Joe Biden has told the Chinese that the only thing worse than an intended conflict is an unintended one. The accident he feared may now be materialising. A visit by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, to the self-governing island of Taiwan has enraged the rulers of mainland China, who claim it, and wrong-footed the Biden administration. Some are already speaking of the “Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis”, which is liable to be worse than the third confrontation of 1995-96.

20220806_CNM903.png


As Ms Pelosi’s plane approached Taiwan late on August 2nd—taking a circuitous route from Malaysia around the Philippines to avoid the South China Sea, which is dotted with Chinese bases—military commanders in Beijing announced a series of “targeted operations”. They include, ominously, live-fire drills around Taiwan (see map). These will be spread so widely that they may amount to a blockade of the island.

The Chinese armed forces said the exercises would begin on August 4th, the day after Ms Pelosi’s departure, and last for four days. Chinese media said air and sea traffic should stay away from six designated areas that encircle the island and in some cases overlap with its territorial waters. The creation of a live-fire range on the far side of Taiwan from China suggests that China may fire ballistic missiles over the island. Some airlines were reportedly cancelling flights.

Unusually, Chinese jets have pressed against the “median line” in the Taiwan Strait, the unofficial frontier between Chinese and Taiwanese waters and airspace. As is more customary, they also probed Taiwan’s air-defence identification zone farther south. Some worry that China may also try in some way to enforce its assertion, aired publicly in recent months, that the Taiwan Strait is not an international waterway. Separately, the mainland announced a ban on imports from Taiwan of agricultural goods, fish and many other products. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, echoed earlier warnings from Xi Jinping, China’s leader: “Those who play with fire will not come to a good end; those who offend China will surely be punished.”

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s low-key president, tried to balance a warm welcome for Ms Pelosi with calm and resolve: “Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down; we will firmly uphold our nation’s sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defence for democracy.”

China’s most jingoistic commentators had been calling for Ms Pelosi’s plane to be shot down. But China appears to be trying to avoid any sort of direct military confrontation with America. At any rate, the American aircraft-carrier and other naval vessels sailing to the east of Taiwan have not been threatened. But Ms Pelosi’s departure for South Korea is unlikely to end the crisis; it is probably just the beginning. A commentary in China’s Global Times, a tub-thumping state-run tabloid in English, predicted: “China’s countermeasures will not be one-off but a combination of long-term, resolute and steadily advancing actions.” China-watchers believe cross-strait relations are at an “inflection point”, and that China will keep turning up the pressure.

Biden in a bind

The Biden administration seems resigned to a spiral of worsening relations. “China has positioned itself to take further steps, and we expect that they will continue to react over a longer-term horizon,” said John Kirby, a White House spokesman. He insisted that the trip by Ms Pelosi, who is second in the line of succession to the president and the first House speaker to visit the island in 25 years, did not mark a change in America’s “one-China” policy. America would not engage in sabre-rattling, he declared; nor would it be intimidated.

There is considerable discomfort within Mr Biden’s administration, though. It had warned Ms Pelosi—who, like Mr Biden, is a Democrat—against making the trip. Ms Pelosi’s Republican foes in Congress, in turn, lined up to praise her. “I’m about to use four words in a row that I haven’t used in this way before,” said Roy Blunt, a Republican senator from Missouri. “Those four words are, ‘Speaker Pelosi was right’.”

If Ms Pelosi has any regrets about the uproar she has created, she is not showing it. “Now, more than ever, America’s solidarity with Taiwan is crucial and that is the message we are bringing here today,” she said at a meeting with Ms Tsai. Echoing one of Mr Biden’s catchphrases, she went on: “The world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy. America’s determination to preserve democracy here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.”

Ms Pelosi said a new law to encourage chipmaking in America would create economic opportunities for Taiwan. She also hinted at a possible future trade deal. Ms Tsai presented her with the Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon, given to those who have made outstanding contributions to Taiwan. Well-wishers on the streets in Taipei cheered Ms Pelosi as she went to meet politicians and visited the National Human Rights Museum, where she was due to have private meetings with Chinese dissidents and Taiwanese who had fought to establish democracy. Taipei 101, the tallest building on the island, lit up with greetings such as “Thank you, friend of democracy” and “Taiwan [heart] USA”. But there were also critics of her visit, some of whom called her an “arsonist”.

For all the solidarity Ms Pelosi sought to express, Taiwan’s position looks more precarious after her trip. The island has long been stuck in a dangerous grey zone in the contest between America and China. It is a democracy of 24m people and historically part of China, but wants nothing to do with the communist regime that rules over 1.4bn mainlanders and claims Taiwan as its own. Though Taiwan is the world’s most important exporter of advanced semiconductors, its statehood is recognised by only about a dozen (mostly tiny) countries. China has tried to limit its relationships. For Mr Xi reunification has become central to his quest for “national rejuvenation” by mid-century—peacefully if possible, but through force if necessary.

Under a contorted diplomatic formula, America accepts that there is only one China, without spelling out what that means in practice. It has no formal diplomatic links with Taiwan, although it maintains close relations under other labels. America insists that the status of Taiwan can be settled only by peaceful means. Domestic legislation requires it to “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character” and to maintain its own military capacity to defend the island. Yet America also follows a policy of “strategic ambiguity”, whereby it does not clearly state whether and how it would intervene in the event of a war between China and Taiwan.

Pelosi’s purpose

Ms Pelosi made her trip for several reasons, personal and political. She has been known as a caustic critic of China and its abuse of human rights at least since 1991, when she unfurled a banner in Tiananmen Square to protest against the killing of protesters there two years earlier. She had planned to visit Taiwan in April but postponed the trip after contracting covid-19. At the age of 82, she is almost certainly in her last term as speaker (the Democrats are expected to lose the House in mid-term elections in November). She may see the visit as part of her legacy.

When news of Ms Pelosi’s trip leaked last month, Mr Biden said that military chiefs thought the trip was “not a good idea”. But as China denounced the visit ever more loudly, the high-ups in Washington were trapped. To cancel the visit would be to yield to Chinese bullying. And as a former senator, Mr Biden did not want to challenge the prerogatives of Congress, a “co-equal” branch of America’s government.

There is probably never a good moment for such a high-profile American visit. But Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund, a think-tank in Washington, argues that the timing was particularly poor. It coincided with the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army, always a time for jingoism (“Prepare for war”, declared one poster). More important, Mr Xi is just a few months away from a crucial party congress at which he is seeking to secure a third term, violating recent norms. “Xi Jinping really cannot be seen as soft on the United States,” said Ms Glaser. “He has to demonstrate determination to defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The fact that Ms Pelosi is of the same party as Mr Biden adds insult to injury: in Chinese eyes Mr Biden is either weak or conniving.

China complains that America is “salami-slicing” the one-China policy, although Ms Pelosi’s visit does not run counter to any specific American commitments. Mr Biden himself has sowed confusion by repeatedly saying he would defend Taiwan, only for White House officials to walk back his comments. Mike Pompeo and Mark Esper, former secretaries of state and of defence under Donald Trump, have recently called for America to abandon strategic ambiguity, or even abrogate the one-China policy by treating Taiwan like any other independent state.

Jude Blanchette of the Centre for International and Strategic Studies, another think-tank, argues that adding to the sensitivity is a fear on all sides that time is running out. American leaders worry that China might launch an invasion in the next few years. Chinese rulers fear that Taiwan is slipping from their grip as it leans further towards independence. Taiwanese leaders fret that America is distracted by the war in Ukraine and problems at home.

Mr Biden has met Mr Xi several times by video—not yet in person—and has urged China to agree to cold-war-style “guardrails” to manage the contest between the two countries. This may have helped avoid an immediate military incident during Ms Pelosi’s visit, but may not contain a longer-term confrontation. “Pelosi’s visit breaks the norms and patterns for the last 25 years or even longer. But the drills and the exercises that China is conducting are unprecedented as well,” says Wang Huiyao, head of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a think-tank in Beijing. “It symbolises a break away from the status quo on both sides, which is not healthy.”

If China’s exercises turn into a de facto blockade of Taiwan, Mr Biden will have to decide whether to interpose American forces, as Bill Clinton did by sending warships through the Taiwan Strait in 1996. That will impose a greater military burden on America than on China, notes Mr Wang. For its part, the G7 club of industrialised countries told China “there is no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait”, and urged all sides “to remain calm, exercise restraint, act with transparency, and maintain open lines of communication to prevent misunderstanding.”

In the quarter-century since the last big crisis, China has grown richer, more powerful and, under Mr Xi, more belligerent. Taiwan’s survival, argues Mr Blanchette, depends on preserving the status quo, thereby encouraging China to treat the island’s fate as a problem best left for another day. By going to Taiwan, Ms Pelosi may have wanted to do away with diplomatic obfuscation and create a moment of moral clarity about America’s support for Taiwan. She may also have created a moment of danger.

Nancy Pelosi has left Taiwan. The real crisis may be just beginning | The Economist
 

Old Greek

Veteran Member
Taiwan has denied ever shooting down a Chinese fighter plane, although there are many internet posts/stories
about it happening. Who knows the truth. Got to take everything you read with a grain of salt.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
20+ PLA Jets Cross Median Line Over Taiwan Strait As Chinese Drills Encircle Island

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
WEDNESDAY, AUG 03, 2022 - 08:57 AM

Update(9:57ET): Less than a half-day after Nancy Pelosi's departure from Taiwan on a US Air Force plane, a large group of 27 Chinese PLA planes breached Taiwan's air defense identification zone Wednesday, crucially with at least 22 of the aircraft reported as having crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line".

A map posted to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense showed the brief crossovers by the PLA jets. In response, the ministry said it issued radio warnings and readied air defense missile systems to monitor the activities. Taiwan previously said it won't hesitated to deploy its armed forces to thwart "enemy threats". Already as Pelosi's plane was inbound yesterday from Malaysia Chinese planes and ships had buzzed the median line, which demarcates what the self-ruled island deems its own territorial waters.




"27 PLA aircraft (J-11*6, J-16*5 and SU-30*16) entered the surrounding area of R.O.C. on August 3, 2022," Taiwan's military wrote in official social media posts. Earlier in the day state-run English language PRC mouthpiece Global Times declared that Beijing now views the median line has having ceased to exist.

"The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and that the so-called median line will cease to exist," the publication wrote while detailing the next phase of PLA drills to surround the island.
PLA drills encircling Taiwan (source: Bloomberg Graphics):



Taiwan's military has since confirmed breaches of its territorial waters and airspace above "by force" as the PLA continues its threatening tactics...

To review of the latest via Chinese media outlet Global Times:
  • The PLA drills around Taiwan island are unprecedented
  • conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island for the 1st time
  • PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles to the island
  • "median line" ceases to exist
Taiwan has in the last hours issued its own video depicting the military on a high state of alert...

* * *

"Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy" House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said during her short Wednesday morning meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen after flying into Taipei the night prior on an Air Force jet. "America’s determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world, remains ironclad."

She has already departed on Wednesday, amid ongoing Chinese PLA military drills surrounding the self-ruled island on many sides, which are the result of her visit which Beijing has vehemently condemned, with the foreign ministry warning overnight the US will "pay the price".

Taiwan's Tsai, for her part while meeting with Pelosi said, "Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down, we will firmly uphold our nation's sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defense for democracy."
Tsai bestowed on Pelosi the democratic-island's highest civilian award, called the Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon during a live broadcast from the presidential palace.

The Taiwanese president described that it "represented their [Taiwan’s] gratitude to Pelosi and the wish to continue progressing US-Taiwan relations through more cooperation." Pelosi later posted on Twitter that it was a "symbol of America’s strong and enduring friendship."

China's National Defense Ministry in its latest said, "Such an act equals to sealing off Taiwan by air and sea, such an act covers our country’s territory and territorial waters, and severely violates our country’s territorial sovereignty," according to the words by Capt. Jian-chang Yu.


Via Reuters


The part of the PLA drill slated for Thursday will include 'live fire' exercises within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers of Taiwan's shore. The Hill notes it will be "the largest aimed at Taiwan since 1995, when China fired missiles in a large-scale exercise to show its displeasure at a visit by then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the U.S."

Taiwan has already charged China with breaching its territorial waters with the drills that kicked off immediately upon Pelosi landing in Taipei the night before.

Meanwhile, more of China's outrage was on display throughout Wednesday, with Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, previewing to a scheduled media briefing more repercussions and punishment to come.

"As for the specific countermeasures, what I can tell you is that they’ll include everything that should be included,"Hua said. "The measures in question will be firm, vigorous and effective, and the U.S. side and Taiwan independence forces will continue feeling them."

A statement in state-run Global Times has declared the "median line" separating the Taiwan Strait will not longer be recognized.

"Joint military exercises around the island of Taiwan by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) continued Wednesday with a joint blockade, sea assault and land and air combat trainings, involving the use of advanced weapons including J-20 stealth fighter jets and DF-17 hypersonic missiles after the drills started on Tuesday evening, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed on the island which seriously violates China's sovereignty," the provocative statement says.

"The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and that the so-called median line will cease to exist, experts said, noting that by surrounding Taiwan entirely, the PLA are completely blockading the island demonstrating the Chinese mainland's absolute control over the Taiwan question," the publication adds.

* * *

A summary of overnight activity and Pelosi's post-trip fallout via Newsquawk:
  • US House Speaker Pelosi has concluded her Taiwan visit, has now departed on SPAR19
  • US House Speaker Pelosi said there is bilateral support for Taiwan in the US and that her visit is a reminder of the bedrock promise America to always stand with Taiwan, while she added that the delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear that they will not abandon Taiwan. Pelosi also said they explored deepening trade ties with Taiwan and a trade agreement may be imminent, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
  • Taiwan President Tsai told Pelosi she is one of Taiwan's most devoted friends and the visit shows firm US support for Taiwan, while she thanked Pelosi for her unwavering support of Taiwan on the international stage. President Tsai also said Taiwan will not back down in facing deliberately heightened military threats and Taiwan will do whatever it takes to strengthen its self-defence.
  • White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications Kirby said the US is monitoring Pelosi's travel and has taken measures to ensure her safety, while he added that China has positioned itself to take further steps and the White House expects China to react beyond Pelosi's trip including by scheduling live fire exercises, while other steps by China could include economic coercion, according to Reuters.
  • Taiwan Defence Ministry said Chinese drills have invaded Taiwan's territorial space and they will counter any move that violates Taiwan's territorial sovereignty, while it added that Chinese drills violate UN rules and amount to a blockade of Taiwan's air and sea space, according to Reuters.
  • China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it will take disciplinary actions against two Taiwan foundations which will be banned from financially cooperating with mainland firms and individuals. China also announced a stoppage of certain fruit and fish imports from Taiwan and halted exports of natural sands to Taiwan which is a key component used in chip-making, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, China will adopt criminal penalties regarding Taiwan separatists and vowed criminal punishments for Taiwan-independence diehards, according to Xinhua.
  • China's Vice Foreign Minister Xie lodged representations regarding Pelosi's Taiwan visit, according to Xinhua.
  • Taiwan is negotiating alternative aviation routes with Japan and the Philippines, according to Taiwanese press.
20+ PLA Jets Cross Median Line Over Taiwan Strait As Chinese Drills Encircle Island | ZeroHedge
 

jward

passin' thru
Taiwan 'preparing for war without seeking war': Taiwanese military - Insider Paper
AFP

1 minute



Taiwan’s military said Thursday its forces were closely monitoring unprecedented Chinese drills taking place in waters surrounding the island and was prepared for conflict, but would not seek it.
“The Ministry of National Defence stresses that it will uphold the principle of preparing for war without seeking war, and with an attitude of not escalating conflict and causing disputes,” Taipei’s defence ministry said in a statement.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Ballistic Missiles Soar Over Taiwan, "Hundreds" Of PLA Fighters Breach Airspace, As 5-Day Drills Commence

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
THURSDAY, AUG 04, 2022 - 08:44 AM

China has kicked off its latest round of war drills Thursday aimed at encircling and pressuring Taiwan in the wake of this week's House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island, the day after she departed and continued on her Asia tour to South Korea.

According to China's People's Daily, this has included PLA command dispatching "hundreds" of fighter jets to enter airspace off the northern, southwestern and southeastern airspaces of the island, at a moment Taiwan's defense forces are on a heightened state of alert. On Wednesday some half a dozen jets were reported as having breached the 'median line' separating the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is promising in essence this is only the beginning.

And more alarming, China launched a series of ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan, with some having flown over the island. "Taiwan has confirmed that mainland China launched 11 Dongfeng series missiles into waters north, south and east of the island on Thursday afternoon, a day after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taipei," South China Morning Post reports.

"The island’s defence ministry said the 11 DF series missiles were fired between 1.56pm and 4pm. It is the first time mainland missiles have flown over the island."

Taipei's defense ministry immediately condemned the severe provocation: "The defence ministry condemned the irrational actions to undermine regional peace," a statement said. Taiwan further called on Beijing to be "self-restrained".


Via The Telegraph/@Military_News4


Taiwanese media outlets are reporting of the unprecedented missile flyover of the island:

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command Spokesman Shi Yi that afternoon announced that the PLA's Eastern Theater Command Rocket Force launched a "multi-regional and multi-model exercise" in the waters off the coast of eastern Taiwan, according to China's state-run TV broadcaster CCTV. Shi claimed that the guided missiles all "hit their targets accurately."


Map source: The Telegraph


Already there has been a 'close call' incident between the two militaries:

Earlier, it [Taiwan's military] revealed suspected Chinese drones had flown above the Kinmen Islands, Taiwanese territory off China’s southeastern coast, and it had fired flares to drive them away.

Major General Chang Zone-sung of the military’s Kinmen Defense Command told the Reuters news agency that the Chinese drones came in a pair and flew into the Kinmen area twice on Wednesday night, at about 9pm (13:00 GMT) and 10pm (14:00 GMT).

Warning flared were then fired: “We immediately fired flares to issue warnings and to drive them away. After that, they turned around. They came into our restricted area and that’s why we dispersed them,” the Taiwanese general said.
While China had quickly started snap drills as Pelosi's Air Force plane - reportedly with US fighter jet escort - landed in Taipei earlier this week, Thursday marks the start of more expansive live-fire drills around the whole island, slated to last five days.

The next five days will include live-fire drills and missile tests surrounding the island in these reported locations, as detailed in Chinese state media publications...



Meanwhile, China is furious over a prior day Group of Seven (G7) statement condemning its military drills. The G7 warned Beijing not to use Pelosi's visit as "pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait".

In protest, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has within the last hours canceled what was to be a face-to-face summit with his Japanese counterpart. At the same time increased cyberattacks are being reported against Taiwan government websites in local media.

Ballistic Missiles Soar Over Taiwan, "Hundreds" Of PLA Fighters Breach Airspace, As 5-Day Drills Commence | ZeroHedge
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Taipei threatens to hit: Chinese hypersonic missiles pass Taiwan "souvlaki" & bomb Japan's EEZ -7th Zone of Encirclement of the island
Response from US comes - Taiwan capture simulation underway
04/08/2022 - 17:09
War News 24 / 7

Rapid developments are brought in the next few hours and days by the largest military exercise of the People's Liberation Army of China. Chinese ballistic and supersonic missiles pass over Taiwan through various parts of its airspace putting the ED of the island in a state of alert.

The Americans are determined to react. WarNews247 reports speak of a "response that has been prepared" and will escalate already strained relations with China.

The information, videos and movements of the Chinese forces show that they simulate a capture of the island. The PLA launched several ballistic missiles into Taiwan's northeastern and southwestern waters starting at 13:46 local time.

In addition, the PLA added an additional Taiwan encirclement zone by making a total of 7 military exercise points rather than six that were so far. In addition, the exercise has been extended until next Monday morning at 10 a.m.

At the same time, the Chinese Army of the Eastern Theater Command fired long-range artillery from the Pingtan Islands, 138 km west of taiwanese territory in a designated area, with Taipei as its net target.

At least, five ballistic missiles (so far) fired by China's military have fallen into Japan's exclusive economic zone, the Japanese government said on Thursday, condemning the move and making a protest démarche.

"Five of the nine ballistic missiles launched by China are believed to have landed within Japan's EEZ," Japan's spokesman told reporters.

"This is a serious issue that concerns the national security of our country and the safety of the people," he added.

China's military fired two DF15B short-range missiles from the mainland to Fujian province. Chinese missiles passed through Taiwan's central airspace before falling into eastern territorial waters.

According to China's Ministry of Defense, the PLA has fired the following missiles and rockets at Taiwan:

(MRBHM) DF-17 : 1
(MRLS) PCL191: 20
(MRLS) PHL-03: 34
(SRBM) DF-16 : 1
(SRBM) DF-15B : 2

China's pcl191 (MRLS) guided missiles were launched from the Xiamen region in Fujian, towards the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, it was reported that Taiwanese fishermen saw Chinese missiles passing over their heads and entering Taiwanese airspace.

Information indicates that the PLA launched yet another short-range DF16 ballistic missile from the mainland to Guangdong province. Passing through the airspace in the south of Taiwan the missile fell into the sea in the northeastern part of the country.

China: We started – Taiwanese forces don't make the mistake

"The drills are starting," the Chinese state television network CCTV said via Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, and will continue until Sunday at noon (07:00 Greek time).

The Chinese armed forces today began the largest military drills in their history around Taiwan, making a show of force in response to the visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to the island.

According to a press release from the ministry, "the Communist Party" of China launched

"multiple Dongfeng missiles in the waters northeast and southwest of Taiwan from 13:56 (p.s.: local time; 08:56 Greek time)".

During this period, "ships and aircraft" will not be allowed to enter the fields where exercises with real fire will take place, he added.

In Pingtan, a Chinese island near one of the zones of the gymnasiums, military helicopters passed moving in the direction of Taiwan, journalists from the French Agency found.

Taiwan's military, for its part, said it was "preparing for war" although "without seeking war."

According to the Chinese newspaper Global Times, which cited military analysts, the drills that began today are "unprecedented" and missiles will pass over Taiwan for the first time.

"This is the first time" that the Chinese army will launch missiles and use live fire in the Taiwan Strait, the newspaper underlined

Today's drills are taking place in a number of areas around Taiwan - in some cases, just 20 kilometres off its coast - and will last another three days, until Sunday.

"If Taiwanese forces deliberately come into contact (s.s.: with china's army) and even fire a rifle by mistake, (the Chinese army) will retaliate with vigour and it will be the Taiwanese side" that will have the responsibility and "suffer all the consequences," a source close to the Chinese army told AFP on condition that it is not named.

The island's authorities denounced the drills, judging them to be a threat to the security of east Asia.

"Some of China's high school districts are encroaching (...) Taiwan's territorial waters," said Sun Li-fang, a spokesman for Taiwan's defense ministry, denouncing China's "senseless" action that "defies the international order."

The exercises aim to simulate a "blockade" of the island and include "attacks against targets at sea, target strikes on the ground and control of airspace," the official New China news agency summarized.

At the same time, it appears that Taiwanese fishermen, as reported by the Associated Press, are the direct victims of the tension.

"This will definitely affect us, but what can we do?"the Taiwanese say.

The Associated Press spoke with residents in the city of Keelung as they went for a swim in the Taiwan Strait, near where China says it carried out "precision missile strikes" as part of military exercises.

"Everyone should want money, not bullets. The economy is the most important thing," said 63-year-old Lu Chuan-hsiong.

The owner of a fishing boat, Chou Ting-tai, said: "He is very close to us. That will definitely affect us, but what can we do?"

However, the director of the Fishermen's Association, Chen Wen-ching, said the impact is great, as the exercises are done during the fishing season. "A lot of fishermen are protesting. They want to conduct exercises around here and we can't do anything," he said.

He continued: "We must inform our fishermen to leave the exercise area, to avoid situations that endanger lives and loss of property."

011-1.jpg


Taipei threatens to strike: Chinese hypersonic missiles pass Taiwan "souvlaki" & bomb Japan's EEZ -7th Zone of Encirclement of the island - WarNews247
 

somewherepress

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View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1555199841059340288

Chinese missiles believed to have landed in Japan’s EEZ: defence minister
AFP
August 4, 2022 10:03 am
china missiles Japan's EEZ
Source: Wikimedia Commons

Ballistic missiles fired by China are believed to have landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone for the first time, Tokyo’s defence minister said Thursday.

“Five of the nine ballistic missiles launched by China are believed to have landed within Japan’s EEZ,” Nobuo Kishi told reporters, as China holds massive military drills in the waters around Taiwan.

Japan “lodged a protest with China through diplomatic channels”, Kishi said, calling the matter “a serious problem that affects our national security and the safety of our citizens”.

China is holding its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, which it considers its territory and has vowed to one day seize, by force if necessary.

The show of military might was sparked by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island, despite stern warnings from Beijing.

Parts of Japan’s southernmost island region Okinawa are close to Taiwan. Kishi said it was the first time Chinese ballistic missiles had landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

The EEZ extends up to 200 nautical miles from Japan’s coastline, beyond the limits of its territorial waters.

The figure of nine missiles fired was an assessment by the Japanese side, Kishi said, adding that the five appeared to have landed southwest of Okinawa’s Hateruma island.

The drills began on Thursday, and involved a “conventional missile firepower assault” in waters to the east of Taiwan, the Chinese military said.

Japan had on Wednesday expressed concern to China over the drills, saying they were planned to take place in maritime areas which overlap with its EEZ.

All nine missiles were believed to have fallen within areas designated by China for the military exercises, Kishi said.
The minister declined to comment on China’s intentions regarding the drills, but nonetheless called them “extremely menacing”.
 
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