WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

TheDoberman

Veteran Member
I have been watching a lot of these incursions. After the initial Biden/Xi phone call a month and a half ago, China really dialed the incursions back. This is the first big incursions since, and this is a big one. Based on the graph, these aircraft flew about the deepest into the Taiwan airspace I've seen so far. This is truly a big event I believe. We could have easily had a miscalculation off of this run. I don't think China would be doing this if they weren't ready for the consequences.

View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1465017231968927747?t=DboSRWCDoN3tVYYeViKo1g&s=19
 

jward

passin' thru
Last time the ramp up in incursions occured was around that sub of ours "hitting the sea mount":rolleyes:
..wonder what, if anything, is happening now behind the scenes to prompt, and if they're still staying in that south western "safe" corner of the zone or. . .?


I have been watching a lot of these incursions. After the initial Biden/Xi phone call a month and a half ago, China really dialed the incursions back. This is the first big incursions since, and this is a big one. Based on the graph, these aircraft flew about the deepest into the Taiwan airspace I've seen so far. This is truly a big event I believe. We could have easily had a miscalculation off of this run. I don't think China would be doing this if they weren't ready for the consequences.

View: https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1465017231968927747?t=DboSRWCDoN3tVYYeViKo1g&s=19
 

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
Since China owns DC, I am
Not sure what the fuss is about. The Biden Admin will not fight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, they will make noise about peace talks or meetings, but US forces in the Pacific will not be ordered to defend Taiwan.
 

energy_wave

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I heard a story tonight from a friend with relatives in the Philippines. They're saying people are being brought in at night under cover and they are all carrying the same knapsack. They look like civilians but the locals suspect they are Chinese in disguise. There's a lot of talk that China is going to take Twain and the Philippines both at the same time.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
I heard a story tonight from a friend with relatives in the Philippines. They're saying people are being brought in at night under cover and they are all carrying the same knapsack. They look like civilians but the locals suspect they are Chinese in disguise. There's a lot of talk that China is going to take Twain and the Philippines both at the same time.
If this is true, then China is planning for a wider war right from the get-go
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I heard a story tonight from a friend with relatives in the Philippines. They're saying people are being brought in at night under cover and they are all carrying the same knapsack. They look like civilians but the locals suspect they are Chinese in disguise. There's a lot of talk that China is going to take Twain and the Philippines both at the same time.

Invading the Philippines isn't going to be the cake walk that some might imagine......
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
I heard a story tonight from a friend with relatives in the Philippines. They're saying people are being brought in at night under cover and they are all carrying the same knapsack. They look like civilians but the locals suspect they are Chinese in disguise. There's a lot of talk that China is going to take Twain and the Philippines both at the same time.

If successful it could break the first island chain and put China in a solid position to protect its interests in the South China Sea.
 

jward

passin' thru





Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info

8m

1/ #Taiwan's friends aid stealthy submarine project as #China threat rises" Taiwan has secretively recruited expertise & parts from at least 7 countries to build submarines to deter a Chinese invasion. Project codename: "Sea Prosperity" Special Report!
2/ Taipei’s chief foreign weapons supplier, the US, has provided key tech, including combat-system components & sonars. Defense companies from the UK, which like America operates a fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile and attack submarines, have provided crucial support.
3/ Taipei also succeeded in hiring engineers, technicians & former naval officers from at least 5 other countries: Australia, South Korea, India, Spain & Canada. Based at a shipyard in the port city of Kaohsiung, the experts advise the Taiwanese navy and the builder.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1465548780338434050?s=20
 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru
At least these folk recognize n freely admit they're pullin' things outta their nether regions. . .still interesting idea eh?

Chinese nuclear sub spotted in Taiwan Strait, shadowed by US patrol plane
Experts have differing theories as to why Chinese submarine sailing north on surface


By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2021/11/30 10:52

(Twitter, @CovertShores image)


(Twitter, @CovertShores image)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Chinese nuclear attack submarine was spotted plowing through the Taiwan Strait on Monday (Nov. 29) while a U.S. patrol aircraft flew overhead.

Monday evening, USNI columnist and military expert H I Sutton posted an image taken by the European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite at around 10 a.m. Taipei Time showing what he believes to be a Chinese ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) prowling the Taiwan Strait while escorted by a surface ship. Based on the wake pattern, rounded bow, and length, Sutton said the sub is likely a Type-094 Jin Class SSBN.

Sutton suggested that the attack sub was traveling north from Yulin Naval Base, which is on the southern coast of the Chinese island of Hainan. He predicted that the vessel was on a routine mission, as China's nuclear-powered submarines frequently head north to the Bohai Shipyard for "repairs and overhaul."

Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) on Monday afternoon announced that a U.S. Navy P-8A maritime patrol aircraft with the aircraft registration number AE6832 had flown south to north over the Taiwan Strait that day. The plane took off from Misawa Air Base in Japan and flew around the eastern and southern edges of Taiwan's air defense identification zone before entering the Taiwan Strait from the south.

On his Facebook page Monday evening, Lu Li-shih (呂禮詩), a former captain of Taiwan Navy corvette the Xinjiang, wrote that the P-8A had probably flown over the Taiwan Strait to monitor the movements of the Chinese submarine. However, he emphasized that he did not think the submarine was simply returning to the Bohai Shipyard for maintenance.

"Strategic nuclear submarines have been deployed in Sanya, Hainan, for so many years. Why would (the base) be incapable of providing maintenance? If it needed to go north for repairs, why did it need to float through waters with the busiest coastal traffic in China?"


Lu then speculated that the ship may have collided with the USS Connecticut (SSN-22), which according to official US Navy reports struck a "seamount" while maneuvering in the South China Sea on Oct. 2 of this year. He then implied that the incident could have been similar to the 2000 Kursk submarine disaster, which conspiracy theories allege was precipitated by a collision with a NATO submarine.
BREAKING, new #OSINT, Chinese Navy (PLAN) missile submarine in Taiwan Strait, see https://t.co/jd84G5TT24 pic.twitter.com/AKDHtdDUfJ
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) November 29, 2021
Breaking: USN P-8A #AE6832 flies through the Taiwan Strait, Nov 29. pic.twitter.com/QyStUBjbgV
— SCS Probing Initiative (@SCS_PI) November 29, 2021


Chinese nuclear sub spotted in Taiwan Strait, shadowed by US patrol plane | Taiwan News | 2021-11-30 10:52:00
 

Bolerpuller

Contributing Member
It may be that this is well known information, but it seems to me this should be forwarded to someone who can do something with it?
 

jward

passin' thru
Even Duterte Can’t Get Around the Thorn in China-Philippine Relations

The South China Sea continues to be a perennial flashpoint, despite Duterte’s best efforts to keep relations on an even keel.

Bonnie Girard


By Bonnie Girard

December 01, 2021
Even Duterte Can’t Get Around the Thorn in China-Philippine Relations

The Philippine flag waves aboard BRP Sierra Madre on August 25, 2017.

Credit: Philippine Navy/Naval Forces West
Footage tweeted by ABS-CBN News out of the Philippines on November 18 showed two Filipino boats being blocked and sprayed with water cannons by two Chinese coast guard vessels during a mission to resupply the Filipino BRP Sierra Madre ship and outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on November 16. As a result, the Philippine government filed a diplomatic protest against China, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin said on November 18.

China has long demanded that the Philippines remove the BRP Sierra Madre from the shoal, which is in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines has adamantly refused. The ongoing presence of the ship, which was intentionally grounded on the shoal in 1999, represents the latest flashpoint in an increasingly fractious contest between China and the Philippines over sovereignty of key waters and islands in the South China Sea.

The question of sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal was one of the legal points settled in an international tribunal’s arbitration ruling in 2016, in which the Philippines overwhelmingly won the case it put forward contesting China’s claims and actions in the South China Sea. Despite being a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the international treaty that establishes a legal framework for maritime activities worldwide, China has vowed to never accept the ruling about how UNCLOS applies to the South China Sea disputes.

The confrontation near Second Thomas Shoal was not an aberration. Earlier this year, hundreds of Chinese fishing boats showed up in South China Sea islands and islets, particularly at Whitsun Reef, which, like Second Thomas Shoal, sits within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but is claimed by China. At that time, Locsin tweeted out, “China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see…O…GET THE **** OUT.”

Worried that the Chinese were about to permanently occupy the islands, the Philippines sent in its navy and coast guard. This prompted a response from Beijing demanding that the Philippine ships be withdrawn. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte refused, saying, “I will not withdraw. Even if you kill me. Our friendship will end here.”

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That show of resolve against China was uncharacteristic for Duterte. Overall, he has gone out of his way to make nice with China since taking up the Philippine presidency in 2016. Examples include attempting to encourage Chinese Belt and Road Initiative investment in badly needed Philippine infrastructure by minimizing the importance of the 2016 arbitration ruling. Duterte has called China an ally; he and his government have walked back comments critical of China. And, in one of his most obvious maneuvers to please Beijing, Duterte announced he would annul the Visiting Forces Agreement, functionally kicking the U.S. military out of the Philippines. That last move was later walked back.

As Felix K. Chang notes, the last three Philippines presidents have all “faced the same strategic dilemma: How should a militarily weak Philippines deal with an ever more powerful China?”

Two of those presidents, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001-2010), and Duterte today, have sought to accommodate China. Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), who preceded Duterte, took a diametrically opposite approach, pushing back on Chinese “encroachments” on Philippine sovereignty. It was Aquino who was largely responsible for taking China’s South China Sea claim to arbitration, as provided for in UNCLOS, in the first place. Duterte, on the other hand, has been keen to quench China’s fury at the decision against it, setting aside the ruling (which China in any case had said it would never accept).

Despite Duterte’s obsequiousness, “China has not tempered its pressure on Philippine-claimed features, like Whitsun Reef, in the South China Sea. Nor has China reduced its military presence in the region,” Chang wrote.

As the Philippine Star reported, “China’s more than 500 ‘civilian’ Coast Guard ships are equipped with cannons. Fifty have missiles. Two are extra-large, at 12,000-ton displacement, dwarfing the 8,000-ton destroyers of Asian navies. Filipinos are shooed away from traditional fishing grounds with machine guns.”

Indeed, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in its “grading” of China’s compliance with the 2016 arbitral verdict, found in 2019 that China is in line with “just 2 of 11 parts of the ruling, while on another its position is too unclear to assess.”

Of particular relevance to last month’s incident, CSIS explained:

The tribunal found that Second Thomas Shoal…is underwater at high-tide and generates no maritime entitlements of any kind. And because none of the Spratly Islands can generate EEZs or continental shelves, ‘There is, accordingly, no possible entitlement by China to any maritime zone in the area.’ Second Thomas Shoal sits within 200 nautical miles of the Philippine coast and is therefore ‘part of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of the Philippines’…
The Historical View

The relationship between China and the Philippines is complex and has often been confrontational. It is also historical, going back to the Spanish era of control of the Philippines, which began in 1565 and only ended in 1898. When the Spanish arrived in the Philippines in the 16th century, immigration from China began to grow as well. Economic opportunities abounded, and the Chinese immigrants quickly began thriving in retail trade and as artisans.

https://thediplomat.com/subscriptions/

However, cultural issues resulted in conflict with the Chinese; often this has manifested in prejudice against ethnic Chinese.

Spain’s interest in the Philippines was certainly economic, but it was also religious. In Spanish eyes, it was of the utmost importance to bring Catholicism to the people of the Philippines, and many Filipinos became converts. In general, however, Chinese immigrants were not among those who embraced Catholicism. Thus, as Edgar Wickberg wrote, “by about 1600, the Philippine Chinese had come to be regarded by the Spanish as economically necessary but culturally undesirable and politically untrustworthy.”

This attitude prevailed for centuries. As late as the mid-20th century, the Philippines passed legislation to keep Chinese out of the Philippines economy. The 1954 Retail Trade Nationalization Law attempted to “Filipinize” the retail sector by excluding Chinese nationals from that trade. The Rice and Corn Trade Nationalization Law had similar goals.

Discrimination against those of Chinese descent has abated in recent decades, however. Now though, amid China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea, some fear that anti-China sentiments might translate into prejudice against ethnic Chinese who have lived in the Philippines for generations.

The BRP Sierra Madre

The ship at the center of the Second Thomas Shoal controversy started life in entirely different waters. Laid down in September 1944 in Evansville, Indiana in the United States, the ship was assigned to the U.S. Navy’s Asia-Pacific theater of war, seeing action off Okinawa. In 1955, as part of the Pacific Reserve Fleet, it was named the USS Harnett County.

The ship went on to see extensive service during the Vietnam War, and was transferred to South Vietnam in 1970, becoming the RVNS My Tho in the process. After the fall of Saigon in 1975, the My Tho made it to Subic Bay in the Philippines, where it was officially transferred to the Philippine Navy in 1976 and renamed the Sierra Madre.

Today, this little tank landing ship sits at the center of an international controversy over maritime rights and great power geopolitics. After surviving through two wars, the Sierra Madre continues to serve as a lonely outpost on a deserted shoal in the South China Sea. It may be small, under-manned, and under-equipped, but the ship is there – and even China-friendly Duterte has no intention of giving it up. The resupply operation was completed successfully on a second attempt.

You have read 2 of your 5 free articles this month.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Even Duterte Can’t Get Around the Thorn in China-Philippine Relations

The South China Sea continues to be a perennial flashpoint, despite Duterte’s best efforts to keep relations on an even keel.

Bonnie Girard


By Bonnie Girard

December 01, 2021
Even Duterte Can’t Get Around the Thorn in China-Philippine Relations

The Philippine flag waves aboard BRP Sierra Madre on August 25, 2017.

Credit: Philippine Navy/Naval Forces West
Footage tweeted by ABS-CBN News out of the Philippines on November 18 showed two Filipino boats being blocked and sprayed with water cannons by two Chinese coast guard vessels during a mission to resupply the Filipino BRP Sierra Madre ship and outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on November 16. As a result, the Philippine government filed a diplomatic protest against China, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin said on November 18.

China has long demanded that the Philippines remove the BRP Sierra Madre from the shoal, which is in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines has adamantly refused. The ongoing presence of the ship, which was intentionally grounded on the shoal in 1999, represents the latest flashpoint in an increasingly fractious contest between China and the Philippines over sovereignty of key waters and islands in the South China Sea.

The question of sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal was one of the legal points settled in an international tribunal’s arbitration ruling in 2016, in which the Philippines overwhelmingly won the case it put forward contesting China’s claims and actions in the South China Sea. Despite being a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the international treaty that establishes a legal framework for maritime activities worldwide, China has vowed to never accept the ruling about how UNCLOS applies to the South China Sea disputes.

The confrontation near Second Thomas Shoal was not an aberration. Earlier this year, hundreds of Chinese fishing boats showed up in South China Sea islands and islets, particularly at Whitsun Reef, which, like Second Thomas Shoal, sits within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but is claimed by China. At that time, Locsin tweeted out, “China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see…O…GET THE **** OUT.”

Worried that the Chinese were about to permanently occupy the islands, the Philippines sent in its navy and coast guard. This prompted a response from Beijing demanding that the Philippine ships be withdrawn. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte refused, saying, “I will not withdraw. Even if you kill me. Our friendship will end here.”

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

That show of resolve against China was uncharacteristic for Duterte. Overall, he has gone out of his way to make nice with China since taking up the Philippine presidency in 2016. Examples include attempting to encourage Chinese Belt and Road Initiative investment in badly needed Philippine infrastructure by minimizing the importance of the 2016 arbitration ruling. Duterte has called China an ally; he and his government have walked back comments critical of China. And, in one of his most obvious maneuvers to please Beijing, Duterte announced he would annul the Visiting Forces Agreement, functionally kicking the U.S. military out of the Philippines. That last move was later walked back.

As Felix K. Chang notes, the last three Philippines presidents have all “faced the same strategic dilemma: How should a militarily weak Philippines deal with an ever more powerful China?”

Two of those presidents, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001-2010), and Duterte today, have sought to accommodate China. Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), who preceded Duterte, took a diametrically opposite approach, pushing back on Chinese “encroachments” on Philippine sovereignty. It was Aquino who was largely responsible for taking China’s South China Sea claim to arbitration, as provided for in UNCLOS, in the first place. Duterte, on the other hand, has been keen to quench China’s fury at the decision against it, setting aside the ruling (which China in any case had said it would never accept).

Despite Duterte’s obsequiousness, “China has not tempered its pressure on Philippine-claimed features, like Whitsun Reef, in the South China Sea. Nor has China reduced its military presence in the region,” Chang wrote.

As the Philippine Star reported, “China’s more than 500 ‘civilian’ Coast Guard ships are equipped with cannons. Fifty have missiles. Two are extra-large, at 12,000-ton displacement, dwarfing the 8,000-ton destroyers of Asian navies. Filipinos are shooed away from traditional fishing grounds with machine guns.”

Indeed, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in its “grading” of China’s compliance with the 2016 arbitral verdict, found in 2019 that China is in line with “just 2 of 11 parts of the ruling, while on another its position is too unclear to assess.”

Of particular relevance to last month’s incident, CSIS explained:


The Historical View

The relationship between China and the Philippines is complex and has often been confrontational. It is also historical, going back to the Spanish era of control of the Philippines, which began in 1565 and only ended in 1898. When the Spanish arrived in the Philippines in the 16th century, immigration from China began to grow as well. Economic opportunities abounded, and the Chinese immigrants quickly began thriving in retail trade and as artisans.

Subscriptions – The Diplomat

However, cultural issues resulted in conflict with the Chinese; often this has manifested in prejudice against ethnic Chinese.

Spain’s interest in the Philippines was certainly economic, but it was also religious. In Spanish eyes, it was of the utmost importance to bring Catholicism to the people of the Philippines, and many Filipinos became converts. In general, however, Chinese immigrants were not among those who embraced Catholicism. Thus, as Edgar Wickberg wrote, “by about 1600, the Philippine Chinese had come to be regarded by the Spanish as economically necessary but culturally undesirable and politically untrustworthy.”

This attitude prevailed for centuries. As late as the mid-20th century, the Philippines passed legislation to keep Chinese out of the Philippines economy. The 1954 Retail Trade Nationalization Law attempted to “Filipinize” the retail sector by excluding Chinese nationals from that trade. The Rice and Corn Trade Nationalization Law had similar goals.

Discrimination against those of Chinese descent has abated in recent decades, however. Now though, amid China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea, some fear that anti-China sentiments might translate into prejudice against ethnic Chinese who have lived in the Philippines for generations.

The BRP Sierra Madre

The ship at the center of the Second Thomas Shoal controversy started life in entirely different waters. Laid down in September 1944 in Evansville, Indiana in the United States, the ship was assigned to the U.S. Navy’s Asia-Pacific theater of war, seeing action off Okinawa. In 1955, as part of the Pacific Reserve Fleet, it was named the USS Harnett County.

The ship went on to see extensive service during the Vietnam War, and was transferred to South Vietnam in 1970, becoming the RVNS My Tho in the process. After the fall of Saigon in 1975, the My Tho made it to Subic Bay in the Philippines, where it was officially transferred to the Philippine Navy in 1976 and renamed the Sierra Madre.

Today, this little tank landing ship sits at the center of an international controversy over maritime rights and great power geopolitics. After surviving through two wars, the Sierra Madre continues to serve as a lonely outpost on a deserted shoal in the South China Sea. It may be small, under-manned, and under-equipped, but the ship is there – and even China-friendly Duterte has no intention of giving it up. The resupply operation was completed successfully on a second attempt.

You have read 2 of your 5 free articles this month.

spratly.jpg

 

jward

passin' thru
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed Washington's "unshakable bonds" with Taiwan in a letter to her counterpart in Taipei on Thursday, as the country hosted a democracy forum amid mounting political and military pressure from China.

Taiwan's Legislative Speaker, You Si-kun, who was recently blacklisted by the Chinese government, shared the contents of the letter on Facebook before opening the two-day Open Parliament Forum, aimed at democratic governance and responses to COVID-19.

In her letter, Pelosi said the promotion of "pro-democracy parliaments" are essential for advancing shared values and interests between Taiwan and the U.S.

"The United States of American continues to stand with Taiwan, and we remain steadfast in our commitment to uphold the freedom, security and human rights of the people of Taiwan," Pelosi wrote. "As we strive to deepen our unshakable bonds, the United States Congress looks forward to promoting peace and progress between the United States, Taiwan, and the rest of the world."

Speaker You thanked Pelosi for the message and said support from Congress further strengthens already "rock-solid" U.S-Taiwan relations. Taiwan's foreign ministry, one of the organizers of the event, said it also received well-wishes from Britain's Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle.

 

jward

passin' thru
The United States has doubled its unofficial military presence in Taiwan over the past year in what specialists describe as the latest signal to China that Taiwan's future remains a priority.


The increase from 20 personnel to 39 between December 31 and September 30 came with little fanfare, but it did coincide with a rare public acknowledgement by President Tsai Ing-wen in October that the U.S. military maintains a small presence in Taiwan.


Active-duty deployments now include 29 Marines as well as two service members from the Army, three from the Navy and five from the Air Force, according to the Pentagon's Defense Manpower Data Center.


While the United States has not disclosed what the military personnel are doing, at the very least it is sending a strong signal to China, said Kitsch Liao, military and cyber affairs consultant for DoubleThink Lab, a Taiwan-based research organization specializing in disinformation.


"The escalation is subtle but unmistakable," he told VOA.

FILE - Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen waves as she boards Hai Lung-class submarine (SS-794) during her visit to a navy base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, March 21, 2017.

FILE - Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen waves as she boards Hai Lung-class submarine (SS-794) during her visit to a navy base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, March 21, 2017.

It is unclear whether these figures include a U.S. special operations contingent and Marines who are in Taiwan to train the local military or whether they are officers involved in planning and State Department operations.


Their presence was confirmed in late October by President Tsai after The Wall Street Journal published two stories stating they had been in Taiwan for at least a year, citing unnamed U.S. officials.


The U.S. Defense Department has no comment on the troops' presence but the U.S. Army published rare photos late last year of U.S. Green Berets training with Taiwanese soldiers.


They were also the subject of a Taiwan News report last year, although at the time both U.S. and Taiwanese officials appeared to deny their presence.


The U.S. stationed thousands of troops in Taiwan from the 1950s through the 1970s following the first Taiwan Strait crisis in 1954, but they began to depart in 1972 after the United States and China signed the Shanghai Communique and began to normalize relations.


After the United States formally broke off relations with Taiwan in 1979, only a small number of Marines have remained attached to the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial U.S. embassy.


"The presence of U.S. military, if ever confirmed officially, is sort of testing China's red line since one of the major stipulations for the initial U.S.-China rapprochement back in the 1970s was that the U.S. must withdraw forces from Taiwan on top of switching recognition," Liao said.


In the communique, the United States declared it had an "interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves," and pledged a total withdrawal from Taiwan as an "ultimate objective."


He described the current situation as an "escalation that can easily be de-escalated without much cost in credibility."


China is in a major military modernization campaign, due to finish by 2035. But it may have the capacity to launch a "credible" military operation against Taiwan, which it claims as a wayward province, as early as 2027, according to a new Pentagon report.


Relations between Taipei and Beijing have soured since the election of President Tsai, whom the Chinese media portray as a "separatist" because her political party does not endorse eventual unification with China.

FILE - In this photo provided by the U.S. Navy, the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain conducts routine underway operations in support of stability and security for a free and open Indo-Pacific, at the Taiwan Strait, Dec. 30, 2020.

FILE - In this photo provided by the U.S. Navy, the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain conducts routine underway operations in support of stability and security for a free and open Indo-Pacific, at the Taiwan Strait, Dec. 30, 2020.

As tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated in the past year, U.S. President Joe Biden has indicated the U.S. will "support" Taiwan if it is attacked, although formal U.S. policy is more ambiguous and stops short of promising to defend Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act states that the United States will "make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services" to allow it to defend itself from attack, language Washington has implemented through large weapons sales.


Biden's comments have also been walked back by White House officials; however, the U.S. is not the only country that has hinted its support.


Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said this week that Japan and the United States could not "stand by" if China attacked Taiwan. Australia's government also has suggested it would do the same after announcing the AUKUS trilateral security pact with the United States and United Kingdom in mid-September.


"The U.S. is showing its support for Taiwan in an 'American salami-slicing way' by repeated visits by U.S. congressional members and other high-profile figures," said Bill Sharp, who writes about Taiwanese history and defense and was a visiting scholar at National Taiwan University in 2020.


In the last 1½ years, he said, "we have sold one arms package after another to Taiwan."


"Trying to be as low-key as possible given the continued [Chinese] threat to Taiwan, we are letting [China] clearly know that the security of Taiwan is crucially important to the US," he said by email.

FILE - Taiwan coast guard boats patrol along the coast of Pratas Islands, January 27, 2000.

FILE - Taiwan coast guard boats patrol along the coast of Pratas Islands, January 27, 2000.

Additional U.S. military personnel might be in Taiwan to show members of the Taiwanese military how to use their latest weapons purchases, Sharp said, or to train them in small rubber boat tactics to help defend outlying islands such as the Pratas Islands.


The uninhabited islands are administered by Taiwan but lie close to continental Asia and Chinese military bases on Hainan Island, making them an easy target for Beijing. They are also of strategic value as they lie at the entry and exit of the Bashi Channel and the Taiwan Strait, which could give China access to the Western Pacific.


Attacking the island could be a convenient way to "embarrass" Taiwan and the United States without civilian loss of life, Sharp said.


"I am willing to wager that at least a few US service personnel are on Pratas to train the Taiwan defenders and to serve as a 'trip wire.'That is insurance that the PRC will not attack Pratas which could result in an American death putting greater strain on the US-China relations."


VOA's Jeff Seldin contributed to this report.
 

jward

passin' thru
Invading Taiwan would be economic suicide for China
Third World War

3-4 minutes


Tokyo / Taipei / Beijing – Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has issued a stern warning to China, ‘A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency. Therefore, an emergency for the Japan-US alliance. A military adventure would be the path to economic suicide.’ He further added, ‘People in Beijing, President Xi Jinping in particular, should never have a misunderstanding in recognizing this.’
taiwan-china-financial-1-300x212.jpg
This warning of former Japanese PM drew a strong reaction from China. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman lashed out at Abe that he talked nonsense, pointed fingers at Taiwan issues, made irresponsible remarks on China’s internal affairs and disregarded the One China principle.
Moreover, a military adventure would be the path to economic suicide. We must keep reiterating that peaceful ties between China and Taiwan are the only option,’ said Abe, a former Japanese PM and further appealed that all must stand firm on this point. ‘Any armed invasion of Taiwan would present a serious threat to Japan,’ he said. Abe also drew attention towards, ‘A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance.’
‘Japan, Taiwan and all the people who believe in a democracy need to keep urging President Xi Jinping and other Chinese Communist Party leaders repeatedly not to step onto a wrong path’, appealed Shinzo Abe. ‘While China is large, it has links with the rest of the world. If such an adventure is committed against Taiwan, it will have a tremendous impact on the global economy and deeply hurt China,’ he further said.
taiwan-china-financial-2.jpg
China’s ongoing actions against Taiwan and Japan have been increasing in its complexity. Abe pointed out that this has blurred the line between peace and war. He also urged that Japan and Taiwan need to come together for the protection of democracy as well as freedom in such times. ‘A stronger Taiwan, a thriving Taiwan, and a Taiwan that guarantees freedom and human rights are also in Japan’s interests. Of course, this is also in the interests of the whole world,’ Abe clarified at this time. He also claimed that Japan would fully support Taiwan for progressively increasing its participation at the international level.
Japan has begun to take sides with Taiwan openly, against the background of China’s increasing aggression and hegemonic actions. Over the past year, several senior leaders, including the Prime Minister of Japan, have signalled that they stand behind Taiwan. It has also been warned that if China gains control of Taiwan, its next target could be Japan. With this backdrop, the warning issued by the former PM of Japan linking the Taiwan issue to the Chinese economy becomes noteworthy.
हिंदी मराठी


 

jward

passin' thru
It's widely assumed that we will see multiple hot spots ignite simultaneously; one can see the positioning for such in this chit show kabuki musical chairs production.

the longer it goes on the more I suspect the dance moves have been pre-scripted in a smokey back room somewhere between TPTB, and the upcoming engagements are just to hide the fact.
 
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