WAR China Signals a Military Response to a Taiwan Visit by Pelosi

Sweetwood

Sweetwood

Senior Member
raven said:
Depends on whether you actually believe that any of these "talks" whether about nukes or climate change with China were actually doing any good.
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Everyone knows it was for appearance only. However, the official announcement of suspension of dialogue is a big step toward war.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Yeah, not a doubt in my mind at some level, or thru someone, they're still in touch at least back channel or via third party-
Techwreck said:
Milley and his BFF Chicom general are likely still in touch in case anything gets decided here that Milley doesn't agree with.
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jward

jward

passin' thru

國防部 Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C.
@MoNDefense


PLA dispatched 68 aircraft and 13 vessels until 17:00 (UTC+8) for the activities around Taiwan Strait, part of which had crossed the median line and jeopardized the status quo of the strait.

#ROCArmedForces responded to such a situation accordingly with surveillance systems, CAP aircraft, naval vessels, and missile systems. We condemn such action that disturbed our surrounding airspace and waters and continue to ensure our democracy and freedom free from threats.


7:16 AM · Aug 5, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
 
mistaken1

mistaken1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:


Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture

Strategist, Leader & Author | Retired Australian Army Major General | #IntellectualEdge | | #scifi | #BannedInRussia | @MilWritersGuild@CSIS Adjunct Fellow
The aggressive behaviour of China, the PLA and the Eastern Theatre Command, as shown in this graphic, will provide valuable insights into Chinese military thinking and capacity in the days ahead. 1/14 Image


2/ First, the coming days will permit us to observe how China and the PLA might think about conducting a naval blockade of Taiwan. In essence, they are telegraphing their operational approach so we can war game ways to subvert it in future.

3/ The map, with the live fire areas published by the Eastern Theatre Command, clearly plots out where the Chinese think the key operating areas are for their strategic intimidation of Taiwan and for the conduct of an illegal blockade in the future.

4/ The groupings of naval task forces, and their readiness for sea for this activity, will provide good insights into levels of short term responsiveness, command styles, and contemporary Chinese naval tactics (and how good they are with their own doctrine).

5/ The coming days and weeks will allow observations about the sustainability of large scale PLA naval deployments. Just because you have a lot of ships, it doesn’t always mean you can coordinate them, or sustain all of them at sea over long periods.

6/ Second, the coming days will allow observation of PLA air-sea integration, as well as how they integrate these operations with space-based capability and EW.

7/ Given their almost automatic response to react in this way (which makes the Chinese predictable), how the air and naval capabilities interact will provide insights into exploitable weaknesses.

8/ Third, the coming days and weeks will provide lessons on the effectiveness of PLA joint capability and the capacity of their Eastern Theatre Command. This is a relatively new ‘combatant command’ (formed in 2016), and it is the one responsible for Taiwan. Image

9/ How well this new command is able to command and control the variety of forces (naval, air, cyber, missile, etc) that will be deployed to intimidate Taiwan over the short to medium term will be an area of great interest to multiple military and think tank observers.

10/ Reports such as annual U.S. DoD report to Congress on China are invaluable sources of information on PLA developments. But nothing provides better insights into the actual capability of a military than seeing them deployed ‘in the field’ (or at sea).

11/ You can read the latest DoD report here: media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/20…

12/ The highly predictable surge in Chinese military units, and their likely aggressive posture, is full of potential for incidents with U.S. and Taiwanese forces. Recent behaviour of PLA towards Australian and US aircraft and vessels provides a baseline for their approach.

13/ Beyond the strategic messaging about ‘don’t mess with the PLA’, the PLA will almost certainly use this as an opportunity iron out issues with its joint command and control. They are decades behind the west in these kinds of operations.

14/ But, we have been given a priceless opportunity to learn about the Chinese joint military capability in real time, and to assess its strengths and weaknesses. The Taiwanese, Americans, Japanese, Australians and others will be watching closely. End

• • •

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Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: The aggressive behaviour of China, the PLA and the Eastern Theatre Command, as shown in this graphic, will provide valuable insights into Chinese military thinking and capacity in the days ahead. 1/...…
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Because the chinese would never consider that they might be observed and offer up misdirection.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

Brian Hart
@BrianTHart


NEW: @ChinaPowerCSIS has launched a page to track China's activities amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis as they develop. We start with analysis of the PLA's unprecedented exercises. Learn about the significance of the exercises and each individual zone. https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-f

Tracking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

As U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan on August 2-3, China responded with forceful and coercive military, economic, and diplomatic measures. Developments are still unfolding, but the large-scale and unprecedented military exercises taken by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) far exceed the operations China engaged in during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that took place in 1995-1996. Chinese escalation has precipitated the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis, leading to international calls for China to immediately halt its military activities. This page will track and analyze key Chinese activities as they develop.

Unprecedented PLA Military Exercises around Taiwan
The most significant step to date is a series of large military exercises and live-fire drills. On August 2, Chinese state media announced that the PLA would conduct military exercises from August 4-7 in six zones throughout the Taiwan Strait and around the island of Taiwan. State media detailed that the exercises would include:
  • A series of joint military operations around Taiwan;
  • Joint air and sea exercises in the sea and airspace of the northern, southwestern, and southeastern Taiwan Islands;
  • Long-range live ammunition firing in the Taiwan Strait; and
  • Test firing of conventional missiles in the waters east of Taiwan.
As a whole, these PLA exercises are much closer to the main island of Taiwan than prior ones, showcasing the PLA’s increased confidence in its capabilities to operate near Taiwan. The six exercise zones are within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and encircle Taiwan from multiple directions. Several exercise zones are far from the Chinese mainland and beyond the Taiwan Strait, venturing into Japan’s and the Philippine’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Three of the exercise zones intrude into Taiwan’s territorial waters and lie dangerously close to Taiwan’s capital and key cities. It is also worth noting that these exercises were rolled out at once, while the exercises during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis took place in multiple stages from July 1995 to March 1996.

Mapping China’s Military Exercises
Statements by Chinese military analysts have made clear that the PLA chose the location of each exercise zone for specific purposes. Below are details on the importance of each zone to PLA operations and to Taiwan’s security.


Zone 1: This zone is positioned off the coast of mainland China’s Pingtan Island at the narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait. PLA analysts have noted that operations by this narrow neck could enable China to close off the northern entrance to the Taiwan Strait. This zone was also chosen to intentionally breach and undermine the legitimacy of the “median line” running through the Taiwan Strait, where PLA forces typically operate to the west of the line.

Zone 2: Located north of Taiwan, this zone intrudes into Taiwan’s territorial waters and is 22.5 kilometers (km) away from the tip of the island and approximately 50 km from Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. It is near both the Port of Taipei and Keelung Harbor, a key port for both military and commercial activity. Both ports are critical to Taiwan’s economy and together handle approximately 20 percent of total cargo to the island. Zone 2 is also located near Taipei’s Taoyuan International Airport, the island’s busiest airport, as well as Taipei Songshan Airport, which serves as a military airbase and saw over six million passengers in 2019. This zone is located close to beaches and coastal areas to the northwest and west of Taipei that military planners believe to be suitable for a potential PLA amphibious landing on Taiwan.

Zone 3: Located 18.5 km northeast of Taiwan, this zone is near the only beaches on the east coast of Taiwan that may be suitable for a PLA amphibious invasion. The southeast corner of Zone 3 intrudes into Japan’s EEZ and is a short distance from the hotly contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are administered by Japan and claimed by China and Taiwan. Zone 3 thus further positions the PLA to conduct operations against both Taiwan and Japan. Similar to Zone 2, this zone is close to Taipei and Keelung Harbor. Control of both zones could make it difficult for the United States or Japan to flow forces into Taipei from the northeast side and could enable the PLA to blockade Keelung Harbor. Operating from Zones 1, 2, and 3 could allow the PLA to move quickly to seize Taipei from three different directions and may be particularly important if the PLA seeks to engage in a decapitation attack against Taiwan’s leadership.

Zone 4: This zone rests approximately 130 km from Taiwan’s eastern shores in the Pacific Ocean. Because of the distance to China and relatively mountainous terrain on Taiwan’s east coast, the PLA has historically engaged in fewer operations and exercises in this region than on the western side of Taiwan. This zone directly faces two air force bases at Hualien and Taitung, which are among Taiwan’s most important military bases. Placing forces there would enable the PLA to launch attacks on Taiwan’s eastern shores and bases and help deny the United States and other countries from flowing forces into Taiwan from the east. This zone also overlaps with Japan’s EEZ. Sandwiched between this zone and Zone 3 is Japan’s Yonaguni Island, which hosts a military base, radar, and other equipment and serves as a critical outpost near Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands.

Zone 5: This zone is positioned southeast of the southern tip of Taiwan. It sits between Taiwan’s Orchid Island and the islands comprising the Philippine Province of Batanes and intrudes into the Philippine EEZ. This stretch of seas, known as the Bashi Channel, is a critical choke point separating waters within the First Island Chain from the Philippines Sea and the broader Pacific Ocean. The Bashi Channel is also home to several undersea cables, which could be severed to severely disrupt internet access and communications in the region.

Zone 6: This zone is located at the southwest corner of Taiwan and is the largest of the six. It is close to a region that has been a stronghold of the Democratic Progress Party (DPP), the party that President Tsai Ing-wen leads and Beijing views as pushing for Taiwan independence. The southwest corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ is where the PLA has engaged in the most air intrusions, but typically at a distance much farther from the main island of Taiwan than the exercise zone. This zone reaches into Taiwan’s territorial waters, near the large cities of Kaohsiung and Zuoying, which are both home to key military bases. Kaohsiung also boasts Taiwan’s most important commercial port—which handled nearly 59 percent of Taiwan’s total shipping throughput in 2021—and Taiwan’s second-busiest airport. Similar to the zones in northern Taiwan, this zone is close to beaches and coastal areas suitable for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Military operations from Zone 6 could target DPP supporters, significantly undermine Taiwan’s economy (as part of a blockade), and support a potential invasion of the island.

The Significance of China’s Exercises
These unprecedented exercises serve at least four main objectives. First, they are intended to impose political costs on Taipei and undermine morale and support for Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen among Taiwan’s public. Part of this involves making clear that Taiwan will bear the brunt of Chinese punishment for closer relations with the United States. Beijing hopes that this will drive a wedge between Taipei and Washington.
Second, these exercises are part of larger Chinese deterrence and signaling efforts toward the United States, Taiwan, U.S. regional allies, and the broader international community to demonstrate how capable and determined China is to exert control over Taiwan and enforce its One China Principle. The exercises involve direct costs for Japan, and to some extent the Philippines, because of PLA operations (and firing of missiles) within both countries’ claimed waters. PLA activities are also meant to broadly deter countries from supporting Taiwan by showcasing how much China is willing to escalate.



Third, these exercises allow the PLA to rehearse how to conduct a variety of military operations that could form part of a PLA blockade or invasion of the island. This includes not only activities directed at Taiwan, but operations to prevent potential third country intervention in a China-Taiwan conflict.


Fourth, and longer term, Beijing aims to use the exercises to establish a new status quo in the Taiwan Strait. China is specifically seeking to erase the notion of the median line that divides the strait and aims to constrain PLA operations west of the line. China also seeks to establish a new normal in which the PLA no longer respects Taiwan’s claims to a separate airspace and territorial waters. These exercises are likely only the beginning of PLA operations close to and above Taiwan.


Authors:
Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew P. Funaiole, Samantha Lu, Hannah Price, Nicholas Kaufman

chinapower.csis.org

Tracking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis | ChinaPower Project

This ChinaPower feature tracks and analyzes key Chinese activities amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis as they develop.
chinapower.csis.org chinapower.csis.org
 
subnet

subnet

Boot
We need them (thank the globalists) and they need us (we buy their cheap crap) nothing is going to happen any time soon
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
China has now set up defacto no fly zones combined with a naval quarantine zone.

This includes the Strait of Taiwan.
The US Navy has said it it does not recognize either one. The US Navy has said it will, at some future date, exercise right of passage, which Presumably means Chinese warplanes and warships will engage US warplanes and warships.
The so called live fire exercises will become combat ie war.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well now, there being no coincidences this is like when the Mossad visited the artillery guy working for sadam who wouldn't take the hint to stop.

Course, maybe they did an audit and found money misxing, or he got stressed out and then stroked out. There ard no coincidences.:kaid:
 
MinnesotaSmith

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked

A Quiet Response - Vox Popoli

In lieu of shooting down Nancy Pelosi’s plane, China opts for a considerably more brutal economic response: For the past two days, there seemed to be no other news in the world than the visit of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s plane overshadowed both...
voxday.net voxday.net

A Quiet Response

"In lieu of shooting down Nancy Pelosi’s plane, China opts for a considerably more brutal economic response:
For the past two days, there seemed to be no other news in the world than the visit of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s plane overshadowed both the fighting in Ukraine and the global financial and energy crisis. As a result, a representative of the American establishment did visit the island, and China confined itself to a series of extremely harsh political statements. This fact triggered an avalanche of alarmist statements from all kinds of experts trumpeting China’s strategic defeat. The emphasis was made exclusively on the military aspect, while completely overlooking the fact that we are talking about an Asian country, that is, a state with a different mentality, power system, political scenarios and approaches from the European one.
Click to expand...
While everyone was watching the maneuvers and exercises of the PLA Navy, Beijing delivered an imperceptible, but perfectly calibrated and crushing blow. Since August 3, it has been strictly forbidden to send sand to Taiwan. For Taiwan, this is far worse than a direct military invasion and an amphibious landing.
Click to expand...

The disruption of imported supply chains of construction sand and quartz sand could potentially send not only the Taiwanese economy, but the entire global electronics industry, from game consoles to the “brains” of modern missiles and fighter jets, into a deep knockout.
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Watching the maneuvers of air units and warship formations off the coast of Taiwan is extremely fascinating. Anyone who has read the works of Sun Tzu understands that this is only a beautiful backdrop and that if you sit on your sandy shore long enough, one day an entire island will come to you.
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Anyone who has read Unrestricted Warfare will not be surprised to see China eschew a direct and obvious response that would accomplish nothing but military escalation in favor of a more subtle asymmetric response that will cause severe strategic harm to its adversaries."
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
1659790852421.png

FZeAThyUcAALGWC
 
T

Techwreck

Veteran Member
It is starting to seem that Pelosi gave the Chicoms the excuse, however lame, to execute a plan.

They have been holding back and watching the Russia vs. Nato/US proxy war, and I expected they would engage at some point in some way.

Hopefully this is a only a demonstration and not the actual beginning of the true and kinetic hostilities that seem to be baked into the future.

If this leads to the real China vs Nato/US, I don't like our odds with the current crop of corrupticrats that are currently in charge, some of whom are obviously compromised to some degree by the very enemy they are supposed to defend us from.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Techwreck said:
It is starting to seem that Pelosi gave the Chicoms the excuse, however lame, to execute a plan.

They have been holding back and watching the Russia vs. Nato/US proxy war, and I expected they would engage at some point in some way.

Hopefully this is a only a demonstration and not the actual beginning of the true and kinetic hostilities that seem to be baked into the future.

If this leads to the real China vs Nato/US, I don't like our odds with the current crop of corrupticrats that are currently in charge, some of whom are obviously compromised to some degree by the very enemy they are supposed to defend us from.
Click to expand...
At this time, the West should be sending arms into Taiwan, it appears it is not. This tells me a lot of talk, but no action. China can take that as a go signal for invasion.
 
Walrus Whisperer

Walrus Whisperer

Hope in chains...
I'm of the opinion that this whole sudden trip of piglousi's was meant to draw attention there rather than something here that was going on. What? I don't know.
I almost gagged when she appeared in that titty pink pantsuit. That color is for little girls sunsuits, not for women older than rocks. Something else is\was going on they didn't want seen.
 
Tristan

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Techwreck said:
If this leads to the real China vs Nato/US, I don't like our odds with the current crop of corrupticrats that are currently in charge, some of whom are obviously compromised to some degree by the very enemy they are supposed to defend us from.
Click to expand...


This is the critical point.
 
Last edited:
jward

jward

passin' thru
Collin Koh
@CollinSLKoh

This could potentially be construed as part of a systematic "decapitation" campaign, which would precede a main attack, targeting key Taiwanese government appointment holders. The risk of miscalculation, misjudgment, and escalation is very high now.

Taiwan official leading missile production died of heart attack
August 6, 202210:42 AM UTC
Last Updated ago

2 minutes



TAIPEI, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The deputy head of Taiwan defence ministry's research and development unit was found dead on Saturday morning in a hotel room, succumbing to a heart attack, according to the official Central News Agency.
Ou Yang Li-hsing, deputy head of the military-owned National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, had died in a hotel room in southern Taiwan, CNA reported.

Authorities said 57-year-old Ou Yang died of a heart attack and the hotel room showed no sign of any 'intrusion', CNA said. His family said he had a history of heart disease and had a cardiac stent, according to the report.
Ou Yang was on a business trip to the southern county of Pingtung, CNA said, adding that he had assumed the post early this year to supervise various missile production projects.

The military-owned body is working to more than double its yearly missile production capacity to close to 500 this year, as the island boosts its combat power amid what it sees as China's growing military threat. read more
www.reuters.com

Taiwan official leading missile production died of heart attack

The deputy head of Taiwan defence ministry's research and development unit was found dead on Saturday morning in a hotel room, succumbing to a heart attack, according to the official Central News Agency.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Walrus Whisperer

Walrus Whisperer

Hope in chains...
Countrymouse said:
Listening right now to Mike Gallegher and he gave the best reason yet--

This is a last-ditch, "Hail Mary" ploy to try to RAISE RESPECT enough for the Demoncrat party to get those ESSENTIAL few points up in the polls / voting so that Demos "might" have a prayer of holding on to the Senate in November

Makes sense to me
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THATS NOT gonna happen.... :lkick:
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Oh my. I hated that colour long before I heard your name for it

I am undecided whether it was a feint to draw attention away from something, a power move in the DC/D/mafia wars o'er power and influence, or merely an opening act of the kabuki dinner theatre, designed so that China could move forward, grab a few smaller islands, and be thus be positioned to follow RU lead in eating up Ukraine, one small bite at a time.

Time will tell, I spose

Walrus Whisperer said:
I'm of the opinion that this whole sudden trip of piglousi's was meant to draw attention there rather than something here that was going on. What? I don't know.
I almost gagged when she appeared in that titty pink pantsuit. That color is for little girls sunsuits, not for women older than rocks. Something else is\was going on they didn't want seen.
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
I'm afraid we might find that, like I say o' the R/D parties here, they are all on the same side, and it ain't ours!

..right now I'd say it looks most like it is the beginning of the true and kinetic hostilities, but w/ the caveat that we're still talking years long operations and the beginning moves on the chess board are just that only: early, beginning moves.

I still have not been dissuaded from wondering if the power re-balancing is ALL kabuki for the masses, and being done to explain to them/us how and why the global geopolitical re balancing act, decided before hand by the main players in the back rooms, has come into existence...

Techwreck said:
It is starting to seem that Pelosi gave the Chicoms the excuse, however lame, to execute a plan.

They have been holding back and watching the Russia vs. Nato/US proxy war, and I expected they would engage at some point in some way.

Hopefully this is a only a demonstration and not the actual beginning of the true and kinetic hostilities that seem to be baked into the future.

If this leads to the real China vs Nato/US, I don't like our odds with the current crop of corrupticrats that are currently in charge, some of whom are obviously compromised to some degree by the very enemy they are supposed to defend us from.
Click to expand...
 
mistaken1

mistaken1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hasn't the philipines been friendly with china recently?
Why attack what may be easily bought?
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
And now it oozes from china to taiwan and next phillippines with nuking pearl harbor tbrown into the mix. Ooops poopsie gang:poop:
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
MY issue is that YESTERDAY's "Deemed as a simulation of {yadda yadda yadda}" becomes tomorrow's "Cold Start Invasion".
After one or two "simulated attack fleets movements" it ain't a "cold start" anymore and YOU, on the receiving end have been snookered in terms of defense.
 
N

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Dozdoats said:
RUMINT has it Nancy had an escort of EIGHT late model F-15s ...
Click to expand...


[Takes deeep breath and re-reads above.]

Given some of the new EW "schtuff" they have shoe-horned into the REALY new 15X's, that's damned near overkill. Talk about being able to knock down half the local forces AS WELL AS monitoring them BEFORE they tried to eff her up.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Post-Pelosi puzzle: When is a ‘blockade’ not a blockade?
Mark Valencia



US-China relations are now the worst since then-president Richard Nixon opened modern relations in 1972.
At the June Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe warned US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, “If you want confrontation, we will fight to the very end.”
The visit to Taiwan last week by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, and China’s response have brought the two closer to confrontation and exposed many legal and political uncertainties.
In response to Pelosi’s visit, China declared six warning zones on all sides of Taiwan and undertook simultaneous live-fire exercises in them, including the firing of missiles from the mainland. Taiwan has alleged that this was a “blockade” and that the exercises are a “challenge to the international order.” China says they were necessary to “defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

A blockade is an officially declared act of war whereby one party blocks entry to or departure from a defined part of another’s territory. China’s declaration of warning zones and the exercises and firing of missiles that landed therein did disrupt flight and shipping traffic and schedules to and from Taiwan.
According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Transportation and Communications, an agreement was reached with Japan and the Philippines to reroute 18 international flight paths departing from the island affecting about 300 flights, and Korean Air canceled flights from Incheon to Taiwan for two days.

A Chinese analyst, Major-General Meng Xiangqing, said the six areas were chosen to demonstrate China’s ability to “seal off Taiwan and repel foreign intervention.” And the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command said a simulated “joint blockade” was included among the training exercises.
So a temporary partial indirect “blockade” was the practical effect of China’s declared warning zones and exercises. But technically China has not declared a blockade. Indeed, it insisted that the drills did not deny freedom of navigation. It only issued warnings. Air and sea traffic could enter the zones at their own risk. Whatever the temporary impact of the warning zones and exercises, they are probably not a casus belli by themselves.
However, some of China’s actions may be taken as such by Taipei. It was reported that some of China’s missiles flew over Taiwan’s territory for the first time. Foreign aircraft and especially armed missiles cannot lawfully overfly a nation’s territory without permission.
The conventional missiles flew “above the atmosphere” on a trajectory to land in waters east of Taiwan and thus according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry posed no risk to it or its people. However, most countries would consider such an act a grave provocation requiring a response such as shooting down the missiles. Taiwan, undoubtedly at US urging, has so far shown great restraint in the face of such provocations.

But this brings up the issue of Taiwan’s status. The planned military exercises violated Taiwan’s claimed sovereignty, because parts of the designated warning areas extended to its claimed internal and territorial waters.
Taiwan’s position is that it is an independent sovereign state. It says Beijing is violating international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). But Taiwan is not recognized as an independent country by a vast majority of the world, including the US. Moreover, it is not a member of the United Nations or a party to UNCLOS.
There is also the question of the legitimacy of its claims to internal and territorial waters that may have been violated by China. According to the US State Department, its claims to internal and territorial waters in the areas to the north and southwest of the island are based on illegal baselines.

For example, in the extreme north they enclose a small rock and a small island situated 23 and 33 nautical miles respectively off its north coast. These two features are too small and too dispersed to fit definition of the “fringe of islands” required by UNCLOS to draw such baselines.
They are also too far from its coast to satisfy the UNCLOS requirement of being “sufficiently closely linked to the land domain.” They should not be included in Taiwan’s baselines. Thus China is probably not violating Taiwan’s legal internal and territorial waters in this area.
This of course assumes that Taiwan is even entitled to such claims as an independent country. Beijing’s position is that Taiwan is a part of China and therefore it is conducting the exercises in its own exclusive economic zone, territorial seas and internal waters.

As for China’s “violations” of the median line in the Taiwan Strait, China has never recognized it as an official “no-cross” line. This is a unilateral Taiwan/US invention and interpretation.
As for China’s “violations” of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), this is also complicated. An ADIZ is a designated area of airspace in which a country requires the immediate and positive identification, location and traffic control of aircraft for national security reasons. They are unilaterally declared and not recognized by any treaty or international body.
Although the US helped create Taiwan’s ADIZ after World War II, it does not recognize the requirements of others’ ADIZs, such as that of China in the East China Sea.
Despite the legal complexities, the political message was clear. The actions were a warning that China could encircle and attack Taiwan and implement an indirect blockade using naval, air-force and rocket-force assets for an indefinite period. They also demonstrated China’s ability to disrupt maritime and air traffic in the Taiwan Strait and Luzon Strait as well as in the eastern approaches to Taiwan.

This could become less of a military operation and more “lawfare” justifying an indirect blockade for a duration to be determined unilaterally by Beijing. China’s strategy seems to be to intimidate and coerce without presenting a clear casus belli.
The situation also was a training and intelligence bonanza for all parties. In this sense, all benefited.
These are some of the legal and political complexities generated by the situation. In particular, it appears that all concerned – but particularly Taiwan and the US – are keeping their powder dry and avoiding any unnecessary clashes. But that may not be the case indefinitely – or next time.

asiatimes.com

Post-Pelosi puzzle: When is a ‘blockade’ not a blockade?

US-China relations are now the worst since then-president Richard Nixon opened modern relations in 1972. At the June Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe warned US Secre…
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com
 
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